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Study Hall - Week 7
Just when you think you know what is going on in college football, it proves that you don’t know a thing. Alabama were the class of the sport after destroying the Gators, then were dominated the following week in Columbia by the Gamecocks.
The public no doubt got burnt by the Crimson Tide last week as seven-point road pups. Will they get it right this weekend or will they be fighting with fast food folks when they don’t load up their cheesesteaks? That’s up for debate. What isn’t up for debate are the biggest line moves that Jay Kornegay has seen at the Las Vegas Hilton.
Saturday's Big Movers
Matchup Opening Line Current Line
Miss St. at Florida (+9) (+7)
Bowling Green at Temple (-18) (-20)
W. Michigan at Notre Dame (-22.5) (-24)
Oklahoma St at Texas Tech (+2.5) (pk)
Air Force at San Diego St. (+3) (+1)
Let me first say that it’s sad to not see North Carolina on the list for the first time in two weeks. But I’m sure we’ll see them again soon on that board.
Florida is certainly getting some doubters from the bettors after losing two straight games in the SEC. While Mississippi State is coming into its own with Dan Mullen running the show, gamblers should know that Urban Meyer won and covered his only game after a two-game slide in his career. Of course, he was coaching Bowling Green at the time against Eastern Michigan, but it still counts.
Temple and Notre Dame getting pushed to bigger numbers makes sense with the teams they are both facing. Meanwhile, the Vandals and Aztecs are getting love after some good showings last weekend.
What was surprising is that we have not seen too much movement out of arguably the biggest contest on the board with Ohio State on the road facing the Badgers. The Buckeyes were opened up as 4 ½-point road favorites, but that has been shaded slightly down to four at the LV Hilton.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence points out that being shrewd and shopping around might give a little more insight to this showdown Big Ten powers. “The sharps are very aware of Wisconsin's revenge motive as the line in this game has dropped from -6 to -3 ½.”
So why would the sharps fall over themselves to take Wisconsin in this game? Well, it comes down the lack of respect on one side of the ball. “The real question for me in this game is whether or not Ohio State’s defense is being rightfully acknowledged,” says Lawrence. “This is a unit that has held every opponent it has faced to a season low or a second-lowest yardage mark this season.”
You’re not going to find too many teams with a better group of stoppers like the Buckeyes possess. OSU is fourth against the run (78.7 YPG) and 13th against the pass (158.3 YPG) nationally. And only TCU and Boise State have better numbers in terms of total defense.
That’s not to say that Wisconsin is hopeless on defense. Quite the contrary as they rank 23rd in the country with 308.3 YPG allowed. But they weren’t the problem last year in Columbus in a 31-13 setback, allowing the Bucks to gain just 184 yards. The Badgers’ issues were Scott Tolzien and his decision making.
Tolzien tossed not one, but two interceptions that were returned for a touchdown. Those gaffes overshadow his 250 passing yards in the game. Plus, he really helped Wisky move the ball as John Clay was largely ineffective with 59 yards on 20 carries.
While the Badgers do hang tough with Ohio State, Lawrence provides some ammo for bettors looking to back the Scarlet and Gray. “OSU is 19-1 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 Big 10 road games, with 16 of the wins by double-digit margins.” Tighten that up to spots over the last five years as road faves, and the Bucks are 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS.
Out in Lincoln, the only thing they could talk about was the extra second that Texas got in last year’s Big XII Title Game against the Cornhuskers. The Longhorns won the game 13-12 to make the national title game in Pasadena, much to the dismay of many fans of the Horned Frogs, Bearcats and Broncos.
Nebraska has already started packing its bags for the greener pastures of the Big Ten for next season. But before they take on the Bucks, Wolverines and Nittany Lions, they’re looking to lay waste to the Big XII one last time. The betting shops are expecting them to rip Texas in this revenge spot by making the Cornhuskers 9 ½-point home favorites.
The ‘Huskers are certainly teams over now as the 5th best team in the land with their ole fashioned option offense. Taylor Martinez is running their offense like a pro, gaining 147.4 YPG on the ground to rank 4th nationally.
Bo Pelini also has his defense running strong this year after Ndamukong Suh moved onto the pros. Nebraska is holding teams to just 275.0 YPG, which is just a tick up from the 272.0 YPG they were giving up last season.
Texas comes into this game having been embarrassed by the Bruins in Austin and the Sooners beating them in the Red River Rivalry. And while the Longhorns 6th nationally in total defense (254.2 YPG), that number is a big misleading on the quality of teams they’ve played.
The Longhorns have enjoyed some success coming off of back-to-back ATS losses over the last five years, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jason Johnson has only one suggestion for Texas if they want to win: get up early. “If the Longhorns want to have a chance to win in Lincoln they'll need to get on the scoreboard early and take the crowd out of the game. If they can get up by two touchdowns, they just might be able to force the Huskers to throw the ball which isn't their strength.”
Staying in the Big XII, we find Oklahoma State perfect at 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) and ranked 20th in the AP Poll. Despite the early accolades, the sportsbooks aren’t siding with them this week as Texas Tech is a 3 ½-point home “chalk” against the Cowboys.
Why are the Cowpokes coming up as road pups in this game? Bruce Marshall, one of VegasInsider.com’s expert handicappers, has a few ideas as to why the line has been set in favor of the Red Raiders. “This is a tough one (then again, they're all tough). I had been waiting for Tech to show something and it finally did last week, I was thinking that the offense had begun to lose its identity with Tuberville (who politicked VERY hard to get this job), and maybe it has to some degree, although it finally looked like the Mike Leach "O" last week, especially in the first half when Potts was on fire vs. Baylor. The thought from the pro-Tuberville crowd is that he will be able to upgrade the Red Raiders in areas where Leach was weaker (run game, defense), although have not seen much evidence of that, and the defense does not look anything special to me.”
“Thus far, OSU has looked more dangerous, but I think the key here is gauging the Cowboys schedule. It has not been terribly difficult, and they have run up big scores and big points vs. a mostly-subpar slate.” Marshall continues, “OSU finally got going in the second half last week in its first road game at Lafayette, but the "D" looked a bit leaky vs. that modest Sun Belt team, as it did a few weeks earlier vs. another Belt entry, Troy. Good shootout between QBs Weeden and Potts, and OSU's Kendall Hunter is the best RB on the field, but maybe a slight preference for Tech and the home field edge.”
Just when you think you know what is going on in college football, it proves that you don’t know a thing. Alabama were the class of the sport after destroying the Gators, then were dominated the following week in Columbia by the Gamecocks.
The public no doubt got burnt by the Crimson Tide last week as seven-point road pups. Will they get it right this weekend or will they be fighting with fast food folks when they don’t load up their cheesesteaks? That’s up for debate. What isn’t up for debate are the biggest line moves that Jay Kornegay has seen at the Las Vegas Hilton.
Saturday's Big Movers
Matchup Opening Line Current Line
Miss St. at Florida (+9) (+7)
Bowling Green at Temple (-18) (-20)
W. Michigan at Notre Dame (-22.5) (-24)
Oklahoma St at Texas Tech (+2.5) (pk)
Air Force at San Diego St. (+3) (+1)
Let me first say that it’s sad to not see North Carolina on the list for the first time in two weeks. But I’m sure we’ll see them again soon on that board.
Florida is certainly getting some doubters from the bettors after losing two straight games in the SEC. While Mississippi State is coming into its own with Dan Mullen running the show, gamblers should know that Urban Meyer won and covered his only game after a two-game slide in his career. Of course, he was coaching Bowling Green at the time against Eastern Michigan, but it still counts.
Temple and Notre Dame getting pushed to bigger numbers makes sense with the teams they are both facing. Meanwhile, the Vandals and Aztecs are getting love after some good showings last weekend.
What was surprising is that we have not seen too much movement out of arguably the biggest contest on the board with Ohio State on the road facing the Badgers. The Buckeyes were opened up as 4 ½-point road favorites, but that has been shaded slightly down to four at the LV Hilton.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence points out that being shrewd and shopping around might give a little more insight to this showdown Big Ten powers. “The sharps are very aware of Wisconsin's revenge motive as the line in this game has dropped from -6 to -3 ½.”
So why would the sharps fall over themselves to take Wisconsin in this game? Well, it comes down the lack of respect on one side of the ball. “The real question for me in this game is whether or not Ohio State’s defense is being rightfully acknowledged,” says Lawrence. “This is a unit that has held every opponent it has faced to a season low or a second-lowest yardage mark this season.”
You’re not going to find too many teams with a better group of stoppers like the Buckeyes possess. OSU is fourth against the run (78.7 YPG) and 13th against the pass (158.3 YPG) nationally. And only TCU and Boise State have better numbers in terms of total defense.
That’s not to say that Wisconsin is hopeless on defense. Quite the contrary as they rank 23rd in the country with 308.3 YPG allowed. But they weren’t the problem last year in Columbus in a 31-13 setback, allowing the Bucks to gain just 184 yards. The Badgers’ issues were Scott Tolzien and his decision making.
Tolzien tossed not one, but two interceptions that were returned for a touchdown. Those gaffes overshadow his 250 passing yards in the game. Plus, he really helped Wisky move the ball as John Clay was largely ineffective with 59 yards on 20 carries.
While the Badgers do hang tough with Ohio State, Lawrence provides some ammo for bettors looking to back the Scarlet and Gray. “OSU is 19-1 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 Big 10 road games, with 16 of the wins by double-digit margins.” Tighten that up to spots over the last five years as road faves, and the Bucks are 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS.
Out in Lincoln, the only thing they could talk about was the extra second that Texas got in last year’s Big XII Title Game against the Cornhuskers. The Longhorns won the game 13-12 to make the national title game in Pasadena, much to the dismay of many fans of the Horned Frogs, Bearcats and Broncos.
Nebraska has already started packing its bags for the greener pastures of the Big Ten for next season. But before they take on the Bucks, Wolverines and Nittany Lions, they’re looking to lay waste to the Big XII one last time. The betting shops are expecting them to rip Texas in this revenge spot by making the Cornhuskers 9 ½-point home favorites.
The ‘Huskers are certainly teams over now as the 5th best team in the land with their ole fashioned option offense. Taylor Martinez is running their offense like a pro, gaining 147.4 YPG on the ground to rank 4th nationally.
Bo Pelini also has his defense running strong this year after Ndamukong Suh moved onto the pros. Nebraska is holding teams to just 275.0 YPG, which is just a tick up from the 272.0 YPG they were giving up last season.
Texas comes into this game having been embarrassed by the Bruins in Austin and the Sooners beating them in the Red River Rivalry. And while the Longhorns 6th nationally in total defense (254.2 YPG), that number is a big misleading on the quality of teams they’ve played.
The Longhorns have enjoyed some success coming off of back-to-back ATS losses over the last five years, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jason Johnson has only one suggestion for Texas if they want to win: get up early. “If the Longhorns want to have a chance to win in Lincoln they'll need to get on the scoreboard early and take the crowd out of the game. If they can get up by two touchdowns, they just might be able to force the Huskers to throw the ball which isn't their strength.”
Staying in the Big XII, we find Oklahoma State perfect at 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) and ranked 20th in the AP Poll. Despite the early accolades, the sportsbooks aren’t siding with them this week as Texas Tech is a 3 ½-point home “chalk” against the Cowboys.
Why are the Cowpokes coming up as road pups in this game? Bruce Marshall, one of VegasInsider.com’s expert handicappers, has a few ideas as to why the line has been set in favor of the Red Raiders. “This is a tough one (then again, they're all tough). I had been waiting for Tech to show something and it finally did last week, I was thinking that the offense had begun to lose its identity with Tuberville (who politicked VERY hard to get this job), and maybe it has to some degree, although it finally looked like the Mike Leach "O" last week, especially in the first half when Potts was on fire vs. Baylor. The thought from the pro-Tuberville crowd is that he will be able to upgrade the Red Raiders in areas where Leach was weaker (run game, defense), although have not seen much evidence of that, and the defense does not look anything special to me.”
“Thus far, OSU has looked more dangerous, but I think the key here is gauging the Cowboys schedule. It has not been terribly difficult, and they have run up big scores and big points vs. a mostly-subpar slate.” Marshall continues, “OSU finally got going in the second half last week in its first road game at Lafayette, but the "D" looked a bit leaky vs. that modest Sun Belt team, as it did a few weeks earlier vs. another Belt entry, Troy. Good shootout between QBs Weeden and Potts, and OSU's Kendall Hunter is the best RB on the field, but maybe a slight preference for Tech and the home field edge.”
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