NFL week 5

[roccodean]

getting these in early for the good lines. will post more later.

1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

3* Buffalo +1 over Jax (possible 4* upgrade)
I'm riding the Bills again this week. Jacksonville is getting overvalued in this game because of their win last week against the Colts. But, they are still not a good team. They are dead last in passing defense and will be exploited by a Bills passing game that is improving each week. The loss of Lynch doesn't worry me, actually it is probably good because that will give C.J. Spiller more carries and he is an explosive back. The will have no problem rushing the ball against a Jags D that is 20th. The Bills are also in a great spot here. Because of the Jags upset win last week there is a 43-7 trend (straight up) and a 71-29-2 ATS trend favoring the Bills. The Bills get their first win of the season this week.

2* K.C. +8 over Indy (possible 3* upgrade)
If I told you that the Chiefs are a statistically better team than the Colts you probably wouldn't believe me, but they are. They are 8th in YPR and 4th in YPP (versus the Colts 29th and 8th). On the defensive end, they are 4th versus the rush, while the Colts are one of the worst in the league (30th). The Chiefs have played poor opponents, so I don't think the Chiefs are a better team than the Colts, but this line is inflated because of the public's love of Indy. My Super System has this game as a pick 'em (I was surprised too), and my system does take into account strength of opponents. The Chiefs defense looks for real; they allow only 12.7 PPG. I mentioned that their opponents have not been the best, but they have averaged 19.5 PPG combined (meaning the Chiefs are about 7 PPG better defensively than the average NFL team). With the Chiefs off a bye they will be well rested and poised for an upset. I love the Chiefs in this match up.

1* Washington +3 over G.B. (bodog)
I think GB is a solid team, but they are overrated, while the Skins are underrated. The Pack can't stop anyone on the ground (31st in YPR) and the Skins will take advantage of that. Usually teams are due for a letdown after an underdog division win, but as a home dog they have historically done well. Washington's defense is better than average (10th,12th) and will be able to hold of the Pack's overrated offense (10th in YPR, 13th in YPP). My calculated line is Washington -0.5. The Skins!

[roccodean]

1* Detroit -3 over St. Louis
Detroit is 0-4, but they have played tough opponents (5th in strength of schedule) and were in every game. On the flip side the Rams played the easiest schedule thus far (Arizona, Oakland, Washington, and Seattle). The Lions and are in prime position for their first W here. They qualify for a great schedule factor that is 56-16 ATS over the years. Statistically, these teams are nearly identical (but given the strength of schedule discrepency the Lions are better), but I think the Lions exploit the Rams poor defense (25th versus ran and 22nd versus pass).

[bryce]

Good luck Rocco!

[Dat Boi E]

good luck on Sunday, Rocco!

[roccodean]

thanks fellas. may add cleveland later today. will post if do.

[The Boomaster]

gl rocco

[Wake Man]

GL Roc!

[Spark]

Good Luck roc ... Nice write ups ... thanks

[chris1023]

Thanks I like Buffalo

[Kaptain]

gl today

[shoeman530]

Good Luck

[roccodean]

1* Cleveland +3 over Atlanta
no play if Wallace not starting (it looks like he is)
Until the public realizes that the Browns are not a bad team, I'm going to take the skewed line and capitalize. The Browns are statistically better that the Falcons. The Falcons are 26th against the rush (YPR) and 15th versus the pass (YPP). The Browns should be able to exploit this as a home dog. They are in a good situation here also. Historically, home dogs play well after a underdog straight up win.

keeping buffalo 3*

[Sirporkie]

thanks for the plays