Announcement

**Udog** · 10-05-2010, 10:03 PM

NFL opening line report: Week 5

Four weeks into the NFL season and football bettors are left with just one unbeaten team - the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs.

Yes, it’s a strange, strange world. But if it’s any consolation, oddsmarkers are having just as difficult a time trying to figure out what’s going on as you are.

“Any given Sunday is back in the NFL,” says Jay Kornegay, Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook director.

While the Chiefs are the only unbeaten team left in the league after their Week 3 bye, Kornegay says that there is no one team that is distancing itself from the rest of the league at this point. Instead, it’s more like five good teams interchanging spots on the oddsmakers’ power rankings on a weekly basis.

Chuck Esposito, casino operations manager at the Tropicana Las Vegas, says that his numbers have underdogs cashing in at a 37-21-3 clip to start the season, proving that parity is alive and kicking in the NFL.

“From a bookmakers view you really have to do your homework and put up a number that you feel is the equalizer and will draw two-way interest and then let the betting public decide if that number is too high or low,” Esposito says.

It seems as though the days of the dominant runs, like those of the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, are a thing of the past.

“We really do see a closing of the gap from top to bottom in the NFL this season, and it shows just how difficult it is to stay at a high level - the way that the draft is structured, a series of big seasons makes it difficult to replenish the talent stock,” says Covers Expert Dave Malinsky, who also points to the Pats and Colts as two teams past their peak.

After seeing a few fat pointspreads over the first few weeks of the season, you can see what the industry’s elite are on about with Week 5’s lines. Here is a breakdown of some early lines to keep an eye on this week.

Biggest spread of the week: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 44)

So we have the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts now set as 9-point favorites against the league’s only unbeaten team, Kansas City. This line opened up at -7.5, but was quickly bet up to -9.

“When was the last time a .500 team was the biggest favorite of the week when playing an undefeated opponent?” asks Malinsky. “It shows us that the public is not ready to accept the Chiefs yet, and there are still issues about their poise level in playing this class of opponent on the road.”

Smallest spread of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (pick ‘em, 41)

Don’t expect this line to stick around very long. When asked about the best and worst teams in the league, Malinsky, Esposito and Kornegay all tabbed the Buffalo Bills as the NFL’s cellar dweller.

Malinsky pointed out that this is a perfect matchup for the books to just send out a pick ‘em and then leave it to public betting to move the line. Esposito figured this line will close with the Jaguars set as around 1.5 or 2-point favorites.

Highest total of the week: New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3, 47.5)

You have to wonder about this one after the Giants limited the Chicago Bears to three points while nearly killing their top two quarterbacks in Week 4. Houston has played over in three of its first four while piling up 415.5 yards per game, so that’s where it is coming from.

It’s hard to see that number going up much more, even if Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson is able to go after missing last week’s win over Oakland with a sprained ankle. He’s currently listed as probable for Week 5.

Lowest total of the week: Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4, 37.5)

No secret here as a couple of good defenses and strong running games meet up in New York. The Vikings will be coming off their bye so there’s reason to think they’ll have some tricks up their sleeve, or at the very least, a healthier Brett Favre taking the snaps.

Trickiest line of the week: Philadelphia Eagles at San Franciso 49ers (-3.5, no total posted)

Esposito says the Eagles would be favored in this one if Mike Vick was playing, but for right now at least, that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Monday’s MRI revealed that Vick has a rib cartilage injury and possibly two cracked ribs.

“You also have a 49ers team that is arguably the biggest disappointment early on this season. This is their second primetime home game in the last three weeks and they come off a heartbreaking loss yesterday in Atlanta,” says Esposito. “The game did open up the 49ers -3 and was quickly bet up to -3.5.”

Other available Week 5 opening lines:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38)

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (2.5, 44)

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 43)

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 38.5)

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (3, 41)

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (7, 45.5)

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 42)

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (6, 44.5)

**Udog** · 10-05-2010, 10:05 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Sunday, October 10

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DENVER (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at BUFFALO (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (2 - 2) at DETROIT (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 108-140 ATS (-46.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 78-109 ATS (-41.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 3) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) at CINCINNATI (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 0-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 127-96 ATS (+21.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/10/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 10/10/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 10/10/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) - 10/10/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 11

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MINNESOTA (1 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 1) - 10/11/2010, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-05-2010, 10:07 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Sunday, 10/10/2010

DENVER at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 2-13 ATS off an Over
BALTIMORE: 10-2 ATS at home off SU win as road dog

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 1-11 ATS after a division game
BUFFALO: 20-8 Under after allowing 35+ points

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-7 ATS vs. Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 16-4 Over off outright div loss as favorite

ST LOUIS at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 6-0 Under in conference road games
DETROIT: 33-53 ATS as favorite

ATLANTA at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 1-8 ATS off back to back wins
CLEVELAND: 9-0 Under vs. NFC South

TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 10-2 Under off home loss by 21+ pts
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS as home favorite

CHICAGO at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 5-1 Under off double digit loss
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under off back to back losses

GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 41-18 Over after gaining 99 or less rushing yards BB games
WASHINGTON: 0-3 ATS vs. Green Bay

NY GIANTS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 2-8 ATS vs. AFC South
HOUSTON: 6-1 Under after gaining 175+ rushing yards

NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 17-5 Over Away off home division win
ARIZONA: 7-0 Over after gaining 200 or less yards/game L2 games

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 14-4 ATS at Oakland
OAKLAND: 9-26 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

TENNESSEE at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 34-15 ATS in non-conf games
DALLAS: 16-5 Under off SU win as road dog

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 14-4 Over off an Under
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-4 ATS vs. NFC East

Monday, 10/11/2010

MINNESOTA at NY JETS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
MINNESOTA: 22-9 Over Away off BB home games
NY JETS: 4-0 ATS vs. Minnesota

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 10-05-2010, 10:08 PM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 10

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Washington is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 17 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Buffalo's last 16 games
Buffalo is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. HOUSTON
NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
Houston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. BALTIMORE
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Denver
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. CAROLINA
Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. DALLAS
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing San Diego
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Monday, October 11

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY JETS
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Jets are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games

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**Udog** · 10-06-2010, 12:15 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Kansas City at Indianapolis
The Colts look to build on their 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 October games. Indianapolis is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 411-412: Denver at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.877; Baltimore 136.767
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 9; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7); Over

Game 413-414: Jacksonville at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 123.600; Buffalo 127.399
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Pick; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo; Under

Game 415-416: Kansas City at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 130.504; Indianapolis 143.144
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 8; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-8); Under

Game 417-418: St. Louis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.490; Detroit 123.416
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 419-420: Atlanta at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.324; Cleveland 127.305
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 11; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3); Over

Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.054; Cincinnati 135.879
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 11; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.227; Carolina 129.143
Dunkel Line: Even; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Over

Game 425-426: Green Bay at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.631; Washington 131.641
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-2 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: NY Giants at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.354; Houston 134.249
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

Game 429-430: New Orleans at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.306; Arizona 127.647
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Over

Game 431-432: San Diego at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 135.358; Oakland 124.493
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6); Over

Game 433-434: Tennessee at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 135.467; Dallas 137.457
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Under

Game 435-436: Philadelphia at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.790; San Francisco 130.291
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 437-438: Minnesota at NY Jets (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 135.218; NY Jets 143.282
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 8; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 4; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-4); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:18 PM

NFL bye week trends

If you’ve been around ******* the last few seasons, you’ve probably been anxiously awaiting the annual articles highlighting the top team trends for pre- and post-bye week games. Those of you who subscribe to The Platinum Sheet were tipped off to the following top two trends from this past Sunday:
SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS
HOME TEAMS have won eight of the last nine SEATTLE pre-bye week games, and those teams are 6-3 ATS over that span.
Play on: ST. LOUIS SU & ATS

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
ROAD TEAMS are 6-2 ATS in the last eight PITTSBURGH pre-bye week games.Play on: BALTIMORE ATS

For those of you who may have missed both of those winners, the good news is that there are five bye-week angles for this coming week, which we’re giving to you right here, free of charge. Our next issue of The Platinum Sheet will contain a feature listing top handicapping angles for NFL Weeks 6, 7 and 8, so you’ll want to be sure not to miss that. In the meantime, here are the Week 5 angles that boast winning percentages over 65 percent:

TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS are 6-3 ATS in CINCINNATI pre-bye week games since 2001.
Play on: TAMPA BAY ATS

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO
BUFFALO has not won a pre-bye week game since 1999 and is 2-8-1 ATS over that span.
Play on: JACKSONVILLE SU & ATS

CHICAGO at CAROLINA
UNDERDOGS have covered 12 of the last 13 CAROLINA pre-bye week games.
Play on: CAROLINA ATS

NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 5-1-1 OVER the total in its last seven pre-bye week games.
Play on: OVER the total

MINNESOTA at NEW YORK JETS
MINNESOTA is 10-2 OVER the total since 1998 in post-bye week games.
MINNESOTA is on a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS run overall in post-bye week games.
Play on: MINNESOTA SU & ATS and OVER the total

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 08:26 PM

Tech Trends - Week 5
October 5, 2010

DENVER at BALTIMORE... Ravens have covered 6 of past 7 since 2000 vs. Denver, winning and covering last four meetings at M&T Bank Stadium by 11 or more. Last 4 in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh 10-4 vs. line as home chalk since ‘08 (but 0-1 TY). Broncos "over" 8-1 last 9 since late LY. Tech edge-Ravens and "over," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO... Jags on 11-25 ATS run since beginning of ‘08 season (1-2 TY). Jags also "under" 8-4 last 12 away (though "over" 1-0 on road TY). Tech edge-slight to Bills, based on recent Jag woes.

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Chiefs have covered their last 5 since late LY, all as dogs, winning the last four of those SU. Chiefs 17-8 as road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

ST. LOUIS at DETROIT... Rams won their only game of ‘09 at Lions’ expense, 17-10! Lions 3-1 vs. line TY but just 7-11 since ‘09. St. Louis has covered last 23 in 2010. Rams also "under" 7-2 their last 9 away. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ATLANTA at CLEVELAND... Falcs 7-4 vs. line as “chalk” since LY, they’re also 13-7 overall vs. number since ‘09. Tech edge-Falcons, based on recent trends.

TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI... Marvin Lewis 1-1 as “chalk” TY but 5-18 last 23 in role, and just 3-10 last 13 as home favorite. TB "under" 12-7 for Raheem Morris since LY. Tech edge-Bucs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at CAROLINA... Panthers "under" 14-7 last 21. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent team and "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON... Pack 37-19 vs. line last 56 on board since late ‘06. Pack also 22-9 last 31 vs. number on road. Note Pack "under" first 3 TY after "over" 32-19 the previous three years. Skins 9-18-1 vs. number last 28 at FedEx Field (1-1 for Shan). Tech edge-Packers, based on team trends.

NY GIANTS at HOUSTON... Giants 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road. G-Men also "over" 13-6 since beginning of ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "total" and team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA... Rematch of Saints’ 45-14 playoff win LY. Saints no covers first 4 TY and just 4-12-1 last 17 on board. Cards 6-1 last 7 as home dog for Whisenhunt. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND... Bolts had covered 7 straight at Oakland before failing to get number in LY’s opener. Norv also 14-7 "over" last 21 since late ‘08. Raiders 14-34 vs. line last 48 at home. Tech edge-Chargers and "over," based on extended series and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at DALLAS… The old Oilers vs. Cowboys. Jeff Fisher dog marks not as impressive as earlier in career (15-14 in role since 2005). Wade Phillips only 27-27 vs. line with Cowboys, but he is 10-5 vs. line last 15 as host. Tech edge-slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO... Eagles have won and covered last 4 meetings since ‘05. If 49ers getting points, note Singletary 9-1 last 10 as dog. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on series trends.

MINNESOTA at NY JETS (Monday, October 11)... Favre returns to face the Jets. Note Vikes "under" first 3 in 2010. Vikes 2-1-1 as dog with Favre at controls. Jets have won and covered big last 3 TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on recent Vikings "totals" trends.

**Udog** · 10-07-2010, 09:52 PM

bump

**Udog** · 10-08-2010, 07:40 PM

NFL

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NFL Total Bias: Week 5 over/under picks
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You could almost see it on Brett Favre’s face as he stood on the sidelines beside coach Brad Childress during Week 2’s home loss to the Miami Dolphins – You mean I got off my tractor and came all the way up from Mississippi for this?

You could hardly blame the guy. NFL films had a mic down on the field and Childress was telling the Old Gunslinger it was just a slow start, things would get better, and he just wanted to make sure he kept his quarterback protected to give him a chance to make plays.

And all the while, Favre stood there with arms crossed, giving the 1,000-mile stare across the field.

Maybe that was the moment the Vikings figured they’d better get their veteran quarterback a Lamborghini to drive in a hurry to keep him from heading back to the farm. Now, Favre has his sports car (albeit pre-owned) in Randy Moss, the guy he always wanted, and all is right in Minnesota.

If you ask me, it’s a perfect fit. Moss isn’t the kind of receiver who needs to know the offense inside-out to make a difference on the field. He’s a playground guy, just like Favre.

You just don’t see big time trades like this in the middle of the NFL season very often and the wagering world has responded. The Vikings are set as 4-point underdogs at the New York Jets on Monday night and that number hasn’t moved, but the total jumped from 37.5 to 39 points following the trade.

Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Manager at Tropicana Las Vegas wasn’t surprised.

“If Moss and Favre click the way Sidney Rice and Favre did last year it will definitely impact both the pointspread and total moving forward,” Esposito said Thursday morning.

But before you jump on the over, remember that the Vikings are the only team to have played under in all of their games this season.

“There is a perception that Moss could be a quick fit in the Viking offense, and that could indeed be true - they badly needed a down-field threat, and Brett Favre still has the arm strength to utilize that kind of added weapon,” says Covers Expert Dave Malinsky.

“But the flip side for this week is that the Jets know Moss awfully well, and if Darrelle Revis is ready to go (which looks likely at this point) his impact may be limited. So a case can be made that while an [over/under] adjustment on the Vikings merits carries some logic, the particulars of this matchup may be an entirely different matter.”

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4, 39.5)

Can’t argue with Malinsky here. We have two big time defenses squaring off and Darrelle Revis looking for revenge after Randy Moss made him look like the “slouch” on Revis Island with that ridiculous one-handed touchdown grab back in Week 3.

Moss will definitely make in impression when he pulls on the purple and gold for the first time since 2004-05, it’s just that this game will likely turn out to be more about defense than anything else.

Pick: Under

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3, 47.5)

Last week the New York Giants unhinged the Chicago Bears’ offense by stuffing the running game and nearly killing their top two quarterbacks. They held Chicago to just a field goal while maintaining control of the ball nearly all night long.

That’s the way the Giants have to play to be successful – manage the clock while leaning on their defense. I see more of that this week against Houston, especially with Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones still limping around.

Pick: Under

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (6, 45)

Last week the San Diego Chargers rushed the ball 38 times for 180 yards, with Michael Tolbert leading the way with 100 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries against the Arizona Cardinals. This week the Chargers are up against a Raiders team that’s giving up 162 yards per game on the ground.

Think Philip Rivers might have some open looks after the running game gets rolling? I do.

Pick: Over

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 5-8

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**Udog** · 10-08-2010, 07:45 PM

NFL

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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 5
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Why Jaguars cover: Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Bills are still unsure who their quarterback should be. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a short leash.

Why Bills cover: In 17 road games since the start of the 2008 season, David Garrard has thrown only 11 touchdown passes while being intercepted 17 times.

Total (41): One team has a quarterback that doesn't play well on the road, the other has a quarterback that doesn't play well at all. This could be a snoozer.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-9)

Why Chiefs cover: They are winning with a run game that ranks third in the NFL and a run defense that is holding opponents to only 75 yards on the ground per game.

Why Colts cover: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Total (44): Kansas City struggles to stop opponents through the air and Indianapolis struggles to stop opponents on the ground. Both defenses will have their weaknesses exposed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Why Buccaneers cover: They have won five consecutive games straight up at Cincinnati, which is having a hard time running the ball with Cedric Benson. He is averaging only 3.3 yard per attempt this season.

Why Bengals cover: The Buccaneers offense in only putting up 16.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.

Total (38): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Packers cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury.

Why Redskins cover: Linebacker Nick Barnett and safety Nick Collins might be out for a Green Bay defense that is already allowing and NFC-high 5.2 yards per carry.

Total (44): Aaron Rodgers should have no problem posting points against a Redskins defense that is allowing 305 passing yards per game.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)

Why Rams cover: Sam Bradford is the real deal and will get to test a Lions defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game.

Why Lions cover: With three losses by a combined 10 points, Detroit has played almost everyone close this season.

Total (43): Neither team has a very good defense. If the offenses get rolling they could surpass the posted total.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Why Bears cover: Carolina will be without leading receiver Steve Smith, who suffered an ankle injury last week.

Why Panthers cover: The Bears, who will be without quarterback Jay Cutler due to a concussion, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (35): Under is 9-2 in the Panthers' last 11 games and 9-3 in the Bears' last 12 games.

New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3)

Why Giants cover: With both Andre Johnson (ankle) and Jacoby Jones (calf) questionable for Sunday, the Giants will be able to focus more on trying to stop Arian Foster and the Texans' powerful run game.

Why Texans cover: They will get Rookie of the Year linebacker Brian Cushing back from his suspension for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.

Total (47.5): Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Why Broncos cover: Their offense leads the NFL in passing yards while Baltimore is struggling to run the ball, averaging just over 80 yards per game.

Why Ravens cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore.

Total (39.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+3)

Why Falcons cover: They ranks sixth in the NFL in total offense and are holding opponents to only 15 points per game.

Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis is taking pressure off the passing game and allowing the Browns to control the clock. In his last two games, he has amassed 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Total (41): Under is 8-2 in the Falcons' last 10 games.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The Cardinals will start undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall at quarterback.

Why Cardinals cover: New Orleans has suffered multiple injuries to their secondary and running backs. The Saints are only averaging 19.8 points per game this season.

Total (46.5): Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Why Titans cover: Chris Johnson has had his most productive games against teams that employ a 3-4 defense, like Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Tennessee plays undisciplined and is tied atop the NFL with 37 penalties for a league-high 344 yards.

Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the Titans' last four road games and 11-3 in the Cowboys last 14 games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+5.5)

Why Chargers cover: They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Oakland. Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Oakland will be without the NFL's third leading rusher, Darren McFadden because of a hamstring injury.

Why Raiders cover: They have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They could keep this game close by limiting Philip Rivers and Co. through the air and making the Chargers move downfield via the run game.

Total (44.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Why Eagles cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Alex Smith has been terrible this season and is already in danger of losing his job as the Niners' starting quarterback.

Why 49ers cover: LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are out with injured ribs and the Eagles' offense is much more conservative with Kevin Kolb behind center.

Total (38): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4.5)

Why Vikings cover: The addition of Randy Moss gives Brett Favre a legitimate big-play threat, that will draw double teams and prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box to stop Adrian Peterson.

Why Jets cover: Santonio Holmes will return from his suspension and give Mark Sanchez a wide receiver who can stretch the field and create mismatches in the end zone.

Total (37.5): Over is 4-1 in the Vikings' last five games and 4-1 in the Jets' last five games.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2010, 02:39 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 10

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Tips and Trends
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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders [CBS | 4:15 PM ET]

CHARGERS: (-6, O/U 44.5) San Diego has been an enigma this year, alternating outstanding performances with dismal performances. It's no secret that the home/road splits of this Chargers team are stark contrasts of each other. The Chargers are 2-2 both SU and ATS this season. San Diego will look to win their 1st road game of the year s well as consecutive games this season. San Diego is averaging 28.3 PPG, the most points in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers is the clear leader of this Chargers team, and he's putting up the numbers to prove it. Rivers has thrown for more than 1,300 YDS with 9 TD's this year, 3rd and 2nd respectively in the NFL. RB's Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews have done a good job leading the Chargers on the ground, as they average the 10th best rushing attack in the league at 140 YPG. Defensively, the Chargers are only allowing 17.8 PPG, with no team scoring more than 21 PTS against them. The Chiefs were the team to put up 21 PTS, and that was almost exclusively based on the special teams prowess of the Chiefs. Without question, the San Diego special teams have been the weakest link of this team. The Chargers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games in October.

Chargers are 2-7 ATS last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (calf) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23

RAIDERS: Oakland is 1-3 both SU and ATS this season, and all is not well in Raider land. While Oakland has struggled mightily over the past few years, there is no question that more was expected of this specific team this year. In every game but their season opener, the Raiders have been involved in one possession outcomes. Revenge will clearly be on the minds of the Raiders today, as they've lost the past 13 contests against San Diego. Oakland has scored 23 and 24 PTS the past 2 weeks, thanks to a powerful rushing attack. The Raiders are averaging 140 rushing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. RB Darren McFadden has been the biggest reason for their running game, but with him now hurt it will be up to Michael Bush to carry the load. New starting QB Bruce Gradkowski has done an admirable job making the Raiders competitive in his short time as the starter. Defensively, Oakland has has huge problems stopping the run while being amongst the best in the NFL against the pass. The Raiders are ranked 31st in the NFL against the run, while ranking 3rd against the pass this season. The Raiders are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a home underdog. Raiders are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 home games. Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.

Raiders are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against the AFC West.

Key Injuries - WR Louis Murphy (collarbone) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

EAGLES: Philadelphia is the most publicized 2-2 SU team in NFL history. The QB situation with both Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb, as well as the offseason dismissal of Donovan McNabb have kept the press on this team constantly. Vick was injured in their last game, so Kolb will get the start tonight. The Eagles are only 1-3 ATS this season, as they've been the listed favorite in 3 of their 4 games thus far. Surprisingly enough, Philadelphia is 2-0 SU on the road this year, a trend they hope continues tonight. The Eagles are ranked 11th in the NFL both with their rushing and passing attack this year. Losing Vick will certainly hurt the rushing game for the Eagles, as they are also dealing with an injury to starting RB LeSean McCoy. Defensively, Philadelphia must become better at stopping the run, as they are allowing the 28th most yards in the NFL on the ground at 138.8 YPG. The Eagles are giving up an average of 19.8 PPG this season. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 PTS. Philadelphia is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC.

Eagles are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - RB LeSean McCoy (ribs) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20

49ERS: (-3.5, O/U 38) San Francisco was expected to challenge the elite teams in the NFL, as they were a sleeper candidate to in the NFC. The 49ers would love to start their season over, as they are a horrendous 0-4 SU so far. San Francisco's latest loss might be their most heartbreaking, as they fell 14-16 SU in Atlanta. Tonight will mark only their 2nd home game of the season, with their first coming in a primetime setting against New Orleans on MNF. The 49ers have scored 14 PTS or fewer in 3 of their 4 games so far this year. Nearly the entire offense of San Francisco has underperformed this season, a big reason for a coaching change involving the Offensive Coordinator. QB Alex Smith has thrown for 920 YDS, with 3 TD's and 7 INT's this year. The supposed vaunted defense of San Francisco was expected to be great too, and they have allowed 25.8 PPG, 6th worst in the NFL. The Niners have their next 2 games at home, and in both situations they will be the listed favorite. The 49ers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. San Francisco is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

49ers are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 home games.
Under is 10-4 last 14 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - LB Manny Lawson (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 10-09-2010, 03:06 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 5 analysis

Broncos (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)—Stats can drive you nuts; Ravens are 10-4 as home favorite since ’08, are a ridiculous 27-6-1 as non-divisional HF since 2000, but are 2-9 vs spread the week after playing Steelers the last five years. Home team won seven of last eight series games; Broncos lost last four visits here by average score of 28-9. Ravens (-7) have worst turnover margin in NFL, but have best 3rd down defense (12-51, 23.5%). Denver has run ball for just 55 yards/game. Hosts allowed only four TDs on 43 drives, forcing 17 3/outs; three of the four TDs they gave up came on drives of 83+ yards, so they make you earn it. Average total in last four series games, 26.8. Denver is 4-3 as road underdog under McDaniels.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Bills (0-4)—Huge trap game for Jags, who upset Colts last week, have home Monday nighter with Titans on deck; they scored 24-31 points in wins, 13-3 in losses. Buffalo allowed 34-38-38 points in last three games (14 TDs on 32 drives), giving up 200-273 rushing yards last two weeks. Bills are 5-12-1 vs. spread in last 18 home games. Jags got waxed 38-13 by Chargers in only road game so far; they lost last four road games by combined score of 106-40. Bills are 12-46 on 3rd down (30th in NFL), have -5 turnover ratio (T28th). Visitors are 6-4 in series, with four of last five meetings decided by 4 or less points. Three of four Jaguar games went over total. Tough to endorse Buffalo in any scenario where they’re not getting points.

Chiefs (3-0) @ Colts (2-2)—My 84-year old dad asks, “How can a 2-2 team be giving a 3-0 team 8.5 points?” Fair question, but Indy played three of first four games on road- they crushed a good Giant team 38-14 in only home game so far, but are still just 6-10 as home favorite since start of ’08 season. Colts allowed 257-174 rushing yards in their two losses, 120-47 in their wins. Chiefs ran ball for 135-140-207 yards in first three wins, and allowed only five TDs on 38 opponents’ drives so far- they also didn’t score an offensive TD in only road game (16-14 win at Browns), but are 15-9 as road underdog since 2007. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last four played here by 4-8-15-3 points. Elements of Patriot-Colt rivalry at work here (Crennel/Weis Chief coordinators).

Rams (2-2) @ Lions (0-4)—St Louis was 1-15 last year; their lone win (17-10, +3.5) came here. Rams are 1-13 in last 14 road games, 10-14 as road dog since ’07- they’ve only allowed four offensive TDs on 47 opponent drives, and could run ball well vs Lion defense that allowed 162-183-92 rushing yards in last three games. Both teams are much improved in 2010, but only Rams have wins to show for it. Detroit outgained Packers 431-261 in Lambeau last week, but Woodson’s pick-6 allowed Pack to hold Lions off at end. Lions’ three losses are by 5-3-2 points. Rams outscored last two opponents 26-3 in second half; they’ve yet to trail (3-0-1) at halftime this year. Lions’ only two second half TDs came in last 5:00, when they trailed Eagles 35-17, getting backdoor cover. Detroit is 3-5-1 as home favorite since 2006.

Falcons (3-1) @ Browns (1-3)—Atlanta split pair of OT road games so far, then stole win at gun vs. 49ers last week; they didn’t score TD in only previous grass game (L9-15 at Pittsburgh) but are 14-7 vs spread when playing AFC team last 5+ years. AFC leads NFC 11-6 so far this season. Browns ran ball for 173-116 yards in splitting couple of tough division games last two weeks; they allowed 8.0/9.6 yards/pass attempt to Ravens/Bengals (Owens had 200+ receiving yards by himself last week) but not sure Falcons have explosive WRs to exploit that weakness. Birds are best when running ball (221-202 rushing yards in Weeks 2-3, 58-98 in Week 1 loss and last week’s escape). Atlanta outscored opponents 36-10 in second half of last three wins.

Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bengals (2-2)—Bengals played three of first four games on road; underdog is 17-3 vs spread in their last 20 home games (Cincy is 1-9 in last 10 games as home favorite). Bengals allowed 10-7 points in its two wins, 38-23 in two losses, with winner of turnover battle 4-0 in their games (they forced four turnovers in each win). Since 1995, Tampa Bay is 5-0 as underdog in game following its bye, winning last three SU by average score of 29-16. Bucs won last five series games, with three of wins by 3 or less points, but this is their first visit here since ’02. Bucs picked off pair of passes in each of their first three games. NFC South teams are 1-6-2 vs spread in non-divisional games so far in ’10, 0-3 as underdogs. Since 2005, Bengals are, however, 5-1 as favorite week after playing rival Cleveland.

Bears (3-1) @ Panthers (0-4)—Not sure what to make of collapse in Chicago’s pass protection (nine sacks in first half) Sunday night; Cutler either has concussion or he begged out of tough spot-- neither option is good. Winless Panthers have lame duck coach, rookie QB; they’re 6-23 on 3rd games in Clausen’s two starts, and were outscored 34-14 in first half of last three games. Home team won four of five series games; Bears lost both visits here, 24-14/20-17. Chicago ranks dead last in 3rd down conversions (10-47), scoring only one first half TD in last two games. 0-4 teams don’t have much home field advantage, but Bears have run ball for just 38-77-59 yards in last three games. Last three Carolina games, three of four Chicago games stayed under.

Packers (3-1) @ Redskins (2-2)—Washington defense won two games for them; Skins scored 13-17 points in their wins, completing less than half its passes both games- they allowed 30 points in both losses. Green Bay is 9-4 as road favorite since ’07; their last two games were decided by total of five points- Pack won 28-26 last week despite being outgained 431-261 by Lions. Packers are moving chains (20-43 on 3rd down, 5th in NFL), Redskins aren’t (11-44, 31st), which is why Skins lost field position battle in three of four games. Green Bay won last four series games by average score of 28-9, but this is just their second visit here since ’79. NFC East teams are 4-7 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Three of four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

Giants (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)—Houston gets star LB Cushing back here, opposing Giant team that scored 14-10-17 points in last three games, but beat Bears last week on strength of vicious pass rush (nine sacks in first half). Big Blue turned ball over 3+ times in each of first four games; hard to win that way. In their two wins, Giants started 9 of 26 drives in enemy territory; in their losses, 0 of 22. Houston opponents started only three of 41 drives on the Texan side of the field. These teams are 1-2 in NFL in running plays of 20+ yards (NJ 9, Hst 7); Texans lead NFL in rushing offense (172 ypg) are second in rush defense (70 ypg)- they missed Cushing, allowing 25.5 ppg in his absence. Home team won both series meetings (14-10 NJ/16-14 Hst).

Saints (3-1) @ Cardinals (2-2)—New Orleans routed Redbirds 45-14 on way to Super Bowl LY, but struggled on offense in first four games this year, scoring only 8 TDs on 38 drives, running ball for 73 ypg (30th in NFL). Arizona has a severe QB problem, averaging 4.3 or less ypp in each of last three games. Undrafted rookie Hall played most of game under center last week; Cardinal QB’s were sacked nine times in Atlanta. All four Saint games were decided by five or less points, with NO’s three wins by 5-3-2 points. Home team won five of last six series games; Saints are 4-2 in last six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’04. NFC West underdogs are 6-3 vs. spread in non-division games, 4-0 at home. Last three Arizona games went over total.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)—San Diego won last 13 series games, with 11 of 13 by 7+ points; they won last six visits here, with four of last five wins by 10+; Bolts lead NFL in total yardage on both offense and defense, yet they’re 2-2, losing road games where they outgained foes by 192-247 yards. Oakland has improved, but missed FG at end of Arizona game cost them 2-2 start. Texans/Titans both ran ball for 200+ yards in wins over Raiders; interesting to see if Chargers (132.3 rushing ypg) can do similar damage. Oakland had 33 penalties in first three games, only two last week, but Houston ran ball down their throat in second half. Only TD San Diego gave up last week came on a defensive score. Over is 3-1 in first four games for both teams.

Titans (2-2) @ Cowboys (1-2)-- Dallas is 14-4 vs spread in game following its last 18 byes, covering last five; they're 11-2 as a favorite coming off their bye. Tennessee is 13-6-1 as road underdog since '06; they ran ball for 205-161 yds in their wins, 46-121 in losses, and won only road game, beating Giants 29-10. Penalties been problem for Jeff Fisher; Titans have 29 penalties for 263 yards in last three games. Dallas gave up 89-38-124 rushing yards first three games. Pokes are 13-10 as favorites at home since 2007, but lost home opener this year to Bears. Could be lot of punts, as teams ranked 2-3 in 3rd down defense. Titan foes started eight drives in Tennessee territory in two Titan losses, only one in their two wins.

Eagles (2-2) @ 49ers (0-4)-- Kolb gets first road start for Eagle team that has nine TDs on 24 drives on road, three TDs on 21 home drives, with road team winning all four Philly games. Niners played hearts out in Atlanta last week, leading for over 53:00, but couldn't finish job- they're 6-3-1 as home favorite last two seasons, but winless in 2010, and two games behind other three teams in NFC West. Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in non-division games involving NFC West teams (NFC West teams 0-2 as favorite). Eagles are 8-3 as road dog since '06- since 2000, they're 13-7 as a road dog in non-divisional games. Dogs are 31-15 vs spread last three weeks; here you have an 0-4 team favored over a 2-2 club. NFC East teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Vikings (1-2) @ Jets (3-1)-- Favre used Jets as conduit to Minnesota couple years ago, playing one half-hearted season in Jersey; now he adds Moss as an offensive threat, but how much of playbook can he learn this quick? Jets won seven of eight series games, winning all four played here by average of 19-11. Favre is personally 8-1 SU in game following his last nine byes; Vikes are 17-3 in game following last 20 byes, winning seven of last eight (5-2 as underdog in post-bye games). Jets' +8 turnover ratio leads NFL; they scored 32.3 ppg in three-game win streak (all vs division opponents), with 12 TDs on 32 drives. This is first outdoor game for Viking squad that is 13-38 on 3rd down, with seven turnovers in last two games (-2).

**Udog** · 10-09-2010, 10:40 PM

NFL

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Sunday Night Football betting: Eagles at 49ers
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Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38)

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a defeat to a bitter rival, lost their starting quarterback and have to fly cross country for this week's game.

Think the Eagles have it bad? That doesn't compare to the San Francisco 49ers, who will host Philadelphia on Sunday night in search of their first victory.

Line moves

Books opened the Niners as 3-point home favorites. The line moved a half point midweek with the news that quarterback Michael Vick would miss Week 5, but the number has settled back to a field goal. The 49ers have a 2-2 ATS record while the Eagles are just 1-3 ATS.

The total has remained steady at 38 points, which is the second-lowest total on the Week 5 boards. San Francisco is 2-1-1 over/under this year. Philadelphia is 1-3 over/under.

Bay Area blues

Not much has gone right in what had been expected to be a promising season for the 49ers (0-4). A trendy pick to win the NFC West, San Francisco is averaging just 13 points per game - the second-lowest total in the league.

And the Niners have already switched offensive coordinators after head coach Mike Singletary dismissed Jimmy Raye following a dismal performance in Week 3.

The low point of the season, though, came in the waning moments in last week's matchup at Atlanta, where the Niners let a certain victory slip through their fingers - the fingers of cornerback Nate Clements to be specific.

With San Francisco trying to protect a one-point lead in the final 90 seconds, Clements intercepted a pass and brought it back 39 yards, only to have it knocked loose from him on the return.

The Falcons recovered at their own 7-yard line and promptly moved downfield for the winning score, a 43-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with two seconds to play that sent the 49ers to a crushing 16-14 defeat.

It was the second loss absorbed by the Niners on a last-second field goal. They also fell to defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans in Week 2 in their only home game thus far.

Quarterback Alex Smith needs to cut down on his turnovers. He has thrown for an average of 230 yards per game, but has just three touchdown tosses against seven interceptions.

Running back Frank Gore should get a heavy workload against an Eagles defense that is ranked 27th in the league against the rush, surrendering 139 yards per game. Gore also has 29 receptions for 263 yards, both team highs.

Lame birds

The Eagles (2-2) were having no problems offensively until Vick absorbed a jarring hit at the goal line in the first quarter and was knocked out of the game in last week’s 17-12 loss to the Washington Redskins.

Vick suffered a rib cartilage injury and is not expected to play Sunday. He was leading the NFC with a 108.8 passer rating and the Eagles are second in the NFC in scoring with 95 points despite last week’s 12-point output.

Kevin Kolb, the opening-week starter who lost his job to Vick after suffering a concussion in Week 1, struggled to get the offense moving last week. He finished 22-of-35 for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Running back LeSean McCoy had 10 receptions for 112 yards, but he suffered a crack rib in the game. He has been cleared to play in Sunday’s game.

Kolb might be wise to target wideout DeSean Jackson, who had six receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown in a 27-13 win over the 49ers last season.

History

Philadelphia has won the last four meetings with San Francisco, which is looking to avoid going 0-5 for the first time since 1979. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in that span and own a 6-4 ATS mark over their last 10 meetings with the Niners.

The over has cashed in five of the past six head-to-head games between these teams. The lone under in that span came in their most recent meeting, a 27-13 Eagles win that stayed under the 41-point total last year.

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**Udog** · 10-10-2010, 11:04 PM

NFL

Monday. October 11

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What Bettors Need to Know: Vikings at Jets
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Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4.5, 38)

CURRENT ODDS

New York opened as a 4.5-point favorite last week and the early money came in on the Vikings, especially once Minnesota acquired WR Randy Moss. New York dropped to 3.5-point chalk in some locations, but has since gone back up to a 4.5 after CB Darrelle Revis was upgraded to probable.

The over/under line has also been affected by both Moss and Revis. The total opened at 37.5 last week and quickly jumped to 39 after Moss was acquired by Minnesota, but dropped back down to 38 with Revis’ improved status.

INJURY REPORT

The Vikings acquired WR Randy Moss from New England mainly because Minnesota is still without last year’s top target Sidney Rice. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is listed as probable after injuring his hamstring last week. Shiancoe leads the team with 169 receiving yards this season.

Minnesota center John Sullivan (calf) is questionable and the team will take him to New York in case he's ready. Backup center Ryan Cook looked good in action last week against the Lions so there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off if Sullivan is ruled out.

The Jets’ injury report was filled with star players, but most are expected to play. Cornerback Darrelle Revis (hamstring), linebacker Calvin Pace (foot), defensive end Shaun Ellis (knee), center Nick Mangold, and tackle Wayne Hunter (shin) are all listed as probable.

NOT SO HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Brett Favre turned 41 on Sunday, but it’s unlikely anybody threw him a big birthday bash. Allegations have surfaced this week that Favre sent explicit photos and voicemail messages to a former female Jets’ employee when he played in New York back in 2008.

According to Favre and Vikings’ head coach Brad Childress, the situation is not an issue.

“It’s not a distraction to us at all. We just don’t let it be,” Childress said. “We address it, we talk about it, and then we’re done with it. We just talk about what's out there, look it right in the eye, deal with it to the extent we can. It doesn't affect anyone else in this locker room but Brett Favre.”

But if it affects your starting quarterback, doesn’t it affect your whole team? Childress’ comments make no sense. And since he and Favre don’t really get along as it is, it’ll be interesting to see what comes of this situation as it continues to play out.

MOSS VS. REVIS: Part II

All reports say that Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis will be back on the field for this game against Minnesota. Revis is battling a hamstring injury, but since he and Randy Moss have exchanged words over the last couple of seasons, we’d be surprised if he doesn’t suit up for this game.

Moss and Revis just squared off back in Week 2 when Revis and the Jets beat the Patriots 28-14. Moss was ineffective in that game with only 2 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown. Revis accused Moss of quitting in the second half of that game, and Moss responded with this:

”Between me and him is a mutual thing,” Moss said. “I think he gets caught up a little bit with how he talks. I’ve never said anything about him, good or bad. I still give him his respect, but he hasn't given me mine yet. Sooner or later, I’ll get it.”

POINT OF ATTACK

Under head coach Rex Ryan, the Jets have made their name on the defensive side of the ball. Their defense was phenomenal last year, and it almost as good this season.

But New York’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds after the dismal 9-point effort in the season opener. Over their last three games, the Jets have scored 38, 31, and 28 points, while averaging close to 400 yards of offense per game.

The Jets will finally get their prized off-season acquisition on the field tonight as wide receiver Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension. Holmes will only boost an attack unit that is already in terrific form.

“Adding Santonio to our offense is just going to be huge for us,” Ryan told reporters. “To add a terrific player like Santonio to what we already have, an offense that’s really been rolling…. it’s good.”

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (10/10 - 10/11)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (10/10 - 10/11)

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