Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:17 PM

Wisconsin favored by 21.5 over rival Minnesota

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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (1-4)
at WISCONSIN BADGERS (4-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Wisconsin -21.5

Wisconsin goes for its seventh straight win (and Paul Bunyan’s Axe) over rival Minnesota. The Gophers have lost four straight this year, including a 41-38 defeat to South Dakota and a 34-23 loss against Northern Illinois -- both at home. Wisconsin’s unbeaten season ended last week, with a 34-24 defeat to Michigan State. John Clay was held to 80 yards, snapping a 10-game streak of 100-yard games.

Minnesota is 2nd-to-last in the nation with a paltry three total sacks in five games. The Gophers also rank 92nd among FBS schools in total defense, allowing 407 YPG. The offense hasn’t been too bad, scoring at least 21 points in all five games. QB Adam Weber has played pretty well (91-146, 1,199 yds, 9 TD, 4 INT) and RB Duane Bennett has 486 total yards and touchdowns via the rush, reception and pass.

Wisconsin hasn’t been great in its two games vs. BCS schools, barely beating Arizona State at home (20-19) before the loss to MSU. The Badgers rushing attack led by Clay (116 rush YPG) and James White (73 rush YPG) is averaging 239 yards per game, good for 13th-best in the nation.

Although the Gophers have dropped six straight games to the Badgers, the last three have all been decided by seven points or less. Last year, Wisconsin won at Minnesota 31-28, as Clay ran for 184 yards and three touchdowns. This FoxSheets trend shows why Minnesota is likely to cover again:

Play On - Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (MINNESOTA) - after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. (61-29 since 1992.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Although the Over/Under has not been set yet, it’s important to note that the last 10 games in the series have gone Over.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:20 PM

Press the Streaks

It’s as sure as clockwork. Each football season, handicappers will lament not having picked up on the early stages of various teams’ winning or losing point-spread trends. In most cases, the go-with or go-against vibes were rather apparent in the early days of the streaks. Mostly, however, the weekly handicapping exercise often overlooks the specific mechanism needed to identify these streaks in their earliest stages.
Part of the solution? Just chart the point-spread winning and losing streaks!

Now, that’s only step one of the program. And it’s a fact that there are going to be countless short winning and losing streaks against the number throughout the course of the season, many disappearing almost as soon as they appear. But every 7 or 8-game point-spread win or loss streak began as a 1 and then a 2-game streak; all streaks start somewhere, and we have always been befuddled by some of the more illustrious names in the handicapping business who dismissed any such information until a team had run off five or six same point-spread results in a row. "Now, tell me about the team" was a familiar reply after the streak had inevitably already run its course.

But such attitudes defeat the whole purpose of streak-hunting. The key is to identify teams in the earliest stages of potential winning upturns or losing downturns. Then, go about some fact-finding about all of the teams, and weigh the prevailing go-with or go-against factors. How teams have been performing in relation to the point-spread (not just mere wins and losses vs. the number) is another potential early identifier.

We have always believed that early to mid-October is the spawning ground for the majority of college football point-spread streaks. Early-season form is often a faulty indicator of eventual results, and by the time the campaign reaches its midway point, several factors could be present that were not apparent in the early going. Injuries, in particular, can begin to expose depth concerns on a variety of teams. The writing can begin to appear on the wall for a variety of coaches on the hot seat, and their team’s situation can begin to deteriorate. On the other hand, surprise players can emerge, and teams can often catch fire at the midway point of the season. That’s why we always take extra time to note the early stages of point-spread trends as the month of October progresses.

Thus far in 2010, early indicators are that the season might proceed much as it did last year, with few point-spread streaks extending beyond three or four like-results in a row. But we have also been witness to seasons in which the mid-to-later portions of the campaign are replete with numerous 5, 6, and 7-game spread streaks, both winning and losing. Following is a quick analysis of this week’s "Point-spread Streaks" chart, and some projections as to which of the teams might be worth riding, both good and bad, in the coming week. Included commentary will focus upon teams we’d keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Current Point-spread win streaks

7-Utah...Well, sort of 7 straight with the Utes, actually 6-0-1 vs. the line their last seven on the board. It’s worth noting that Utah has not been challenged in recent weeks, with UNLV, New Mexico, and San Jose State the last three spread victims. The schedule begins to get a bit more challenging beginning with this week’s game at Iowa State. But the Utes have been especially profitable lately as a big favorite, covering 9 of their last 10 as 20-point or more chalk, and they appear concerned about the poll "style points" that could help their eventual move up the BCS queue should they keep winning. The return of starting QB Jordan Wynn from a thumb injury is a plus, but remember that Utah won handily against UNLV and New Mexico with capable backup Terrance Cain (now 9-1 as a starter) at the controls. This streak might still have some legs to it.

5-San Diego State...Much improved, which is not much of a surprise thanks to 2nd-year HC Brady Hoke, who similarly put Ball State on the map in the MAC a few years ago. The Aztecs served notice when nearly pulling an outright upset at Missouri two weeks ago. The presence of dynamic RS frosh RB Ronnie Hillman, who some MWC sources believe has similarities to Reggie Bush, is adding the sort of dimension to the Aztec attack that they haven’t seen on Montezuma Mesa since the days of Marshall Faulk. Although favored this week at troubled BYU, it may take another week or two for the secret to really be out on SDSU.

3-Arizona State...Not sure about the "buy" signals on the Sun Devils, who have pulled a unique trifecta by also losing straight up their last three games. Michigan transfer QB Steven Threet has ignited the Sun Devil offense but also doused it with 7 picks the past two weeks vs. Oregon and Oregon State. Tricky dynamics in Tempe, with HC Dennis Erickson perhaps moving back onto the "bubble" if ASU continues to lose in gut-wrenching fashion. Florida State...The Seminoles are doing some of the things new HC Jimbo Fisher said he was going to improve upon, namely running the ball better these days, while new d.c. Mark Stoops has made improvements to the stop unit, which has rediscovered a pass rush. Before getting too excited, however, consider that FSU’s last three wins have been against flawed opposition (BYU, Wake Forest, and Virginia). We’ll find out how far "back" the Noles are this week against hated rival Miami. Temple...Al "Touch of" Golden continues to wave the point-spread magic wand, as the latest uptick is only the most recent of a pattern that began a few years ago in Philly. The Owls are now 20-9 vs. the number their last 29 on the board. Virginia Tech...Don’t look now, but Frank Beamer has the Hokies on the rise once more. Last week’s win over NC State, at Raleigh no less, puts V-Tech in pole position of the Coastal Division and on a collision course with Miami for Coastal honors in late November. Also, Tulane is 2-0-1 last 3.

2-Arkansas. Auburn. Baylor...That was a real warning shot fired by the Bears last week in the 55-7 rout over Kansas. QB Robert Griffin is a playmaker deluxe, and other first-month developments indicate the Big XII South might not be the rough and tough half of the conference it has been in recent years. Some more opportunities could be on the horizon for the Bears, who are unlikely to get overvalued for a while. Colorado. Colorado State...The Rams are on the heels of a 9-game spread losing streak, but could still be undervalued for a while. True frosh QB Pete Thomas has already passed far beyond the liability stage, and appears to be growing into the position. UConn...Keep in mind some of the recent streaks put together by HC Randy Edsall’s previous teams, one of which was 11-2 vs. the number last season. Another was 9-2 vs. the points back in 2002. Hawaii. Iowa. Iowa State...Now that the Cyclones appear to have their offense back in gear behind QB Austen Arnaud, ISU could emerge as an interesting sleeper in the Big XII North. Louisville. Miami-Florida. Michigan State. Ole Miss...The Rebs seem to have figured out some things on their offense since a difficult first three weeks of the season. Oregon transfer QB Jeremiah Masoli is beginning to make a real impact, and HC Houston Nutt is also started to make better use of punishing RB Brandon Bolden. Ole Miss has scored 97 points in its last two games vs. representative Fresno State and Kentucky teams. North Carolina. Syracuse. Tulsa...Keep an eye on the Golden Hurricane, a major point-spread overachiever under HC Todd Graham before falling into a rut midway through last season. Could be ready to make a move again if last week’s 48-7 destruction of Memphis is any indicator. UAB. UCF. UNLV...The Rebels are fighting hard for new HC Bobby Hauck, have a lively QB in sr. Omar Clayton, and enough offense to slip in some backdoors (which the Rebs have already done vs. Wisconsin and Nevada) as the season progresses. West Virginia. Wyoming.

Current point-spread losing streaks

8-Boston College...This one might not be over yet, either, with Eagle HC Frank Spaziani having benched sr. QB Dave Shinskie, and true frosh Chase Rettig understandably struggling in his first start, vs. Notre Dame before being KO'd. If the Eagles’ offensive problems are as acute as they seem, more losses could be on the horizon.

5-New Mexico...Remember, numbers started adjusting so high for a similarly-bad Lobos team last season that New Mexico began covering point-spreads in the second half of the year.

4-BYU...Panic time in Provo, as the injury to Utah State transfer QB Riley Nelson has left true frosh Jake Heaps as the only viable alternative for HC Bronco Mendenhall. And Heaps is struggling mightily with the adjustment to big-time college football. Moreover, there appear to be no playmakers on the offensive side, and Mendenhall has been so discouraged with his defense that he fired d.c. Jamie Hill after last Friday’s loss to Utah State. This situation might not get better anytime soon. Georgia. New Mexico State. Rutgers...Acute offensive problems got even worse when soph QB Tom Savage was knocked out of last week’s 17-14 loss vs. Tulane. Simply no sharp edge whatever to the Scarlet Knight offense, which has been held to 19 points or fewer by all FBS foes it has faced thus far in 2010. It’s going to be tough to cover numbers without be able to score many points.

3-Eastern Michigan. UL-Monroe. Marshall. Purdue...The season is already getting away from the Boilermakers, who have been hit hard by injuries to key offensive personnel. Already, RB Ralph Bolden, WR Keith Smith, and QB Robert Marve have been knocked out for the season due to injuries. Now, another starter, WR Justin Siller, has been KO’d with a sprained foot. When it rains, it pours in West Lafayette. San Jose State.

2-Air Force. Bowling Green. East Carolina...Watch out, as the Pirates’ quick 2-0 start is fading from memory, and fast. Severe defensive problems in Greenville, where new HC Ruffin McNeill’s stop unit has allowed 91 points the past two weeks and 42 or more in 3 of 4 games this season. Florida Atlantic. Florida International. Georgia Tech. Kent State. Kentucky. LSU...We don’t have to go into details about how unsightly most of LSU’s games have been thus far, with nothing left to be said about last week’s battle vs. Tennessee. The Tigers’ QB problems with Jordan Jefferson have become so bad that they have trotted out ‘08 starter Jarrett Lee, almost by acclamation, in Baton Rouge. Yes, it’s been that bad. Unless Les Miles finds some offense in a hurry, his problems might have just begun. Northwestern. Penn State...Joe Paterno has had some down point-spread years before. And this appears to be no vintage Nittany Lion edition, with the offense looking a mess. A few Big Ten coaches might have a chance to get some revenge on "Shades" this season. South Carolina, TCU. Texas. Texas Tech...Why do we get the feeling the folks in Lubbock are wondering why they hired Tommy Tuberville to replace Mike Leach? Strange as Leach was, he gave the Red Raiders an identity and a lot of swagger. Tuberville appears in the process of wiping all that away, even breaking out all-white road uniforms and helmets. Did they really have to eliminate almost everything from the Leach years? Troy. Western Michigan...The Broncos are now to the point where they aren’t even competitive at home in Waldo Stadium against Idaho. Are the vultures going to soon begin circling above HC Bill Cubit? Or have they already?

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:21 PM

Week 5 Rewind, Part I

The highlight of the noon Eastern games in Week 5 was Miami at Clemson in a critical ACC showdown in Death Valley. Laying three points, Miami hooked up its backers in a 30-21 victory that saw the 51 combined points slither ‘over’ the 49-point total.

Matt Bosher’s 29-yard field goal for UM with 2:40 left put the game on ice and a smile on the faces of ‘over’ backers. Jacory Harris threw four touchdown passes and Damien Berry ran for 101 yards.

Randy Shannon’s team is now 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the ACC (2-1 ATS). The ‘Canes host FSU next Saturday in South Florida.

Speaking of the Seminoles, they trounced Virginia 34-14 as seven-point road favorites in Charlottesville. Jermaine Thomas ran for 112 yards and two TDs, as the ‘Noles raced out to a 27-0 halftime lead and cruised into the winner’s circle.

Ohio State stayed unbeaten in a 24-13 at Illinois, but Ron Zook’s team took the cash as a 16 ½-point underdog. Say what you want about the Zooker, but his teams (at Florida and at Illinois with the exception of his first team) cover numbers in bunches in rich underdog roles.

But in the big scheme, that’s not going to help Zook. This was a crushing loss for him. He’s on a boiling hot seat and this was a legitimate chance to pull a monster upset that could’ve ultimately saved his job if the Illini go on to have a better-than-expected year.

When Terrelle Pryor briefly left the game with a quad injury, a potential upset appeared possible. But Pryor led a pair of fourth-quarter scoring drives to put the game away. The Buckeyes host Indiana next week, while Illinois plays at Penn State.

Ole Miss got over the .500 mark and improved to 3-2 with a 42-35 home win over Kentucky as a three-point home favorite. Jeremiah Masoli threw three touchdown passes and rushed for another to pace the Rebels, who now have an open date before playing at Alabama on Oct. 9.

UConn outscored Vanderbilt 19-0 in the second half to capture a 40-21 win as an eight-point home favorite. The Commodores had no answers for Huskies’ RB Jordan Todman, who rushed for 190 yards and two TDs on 37 workmanlike carries. The 61 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 46-point number.

Northwestern might not be doing its backers any justice with its 1-3 spread record, but Pat Fitzgerald won’t be losing a wink of sleep over that. The Wildcats stayed unbeaten thanks to a 29-28 win at Minnesota as five-point favorites. Northwestern will return home next week to puts its 5-0 record on the line against Purdue.

Fitzgerald’s bunch will be favored to beat the Boilermakers and if it does, it will be 6-0 going into a bye week that precedes a home date against Michigan St.

Baylor absolutely destroyed Kansas by a 55-7 count as a as a 9 ½-point favorite in its Big 12 opener. Robert Griffin, one of the nation’s most underrated QBs, had 288 passing yards in the first half alone. The sophomore signal caller finished with a career-high 380 passing yards. He had three TD passes and also scrambled eight times for 64 yards.

The Bears, who are 4-1, play at Texas Tech next week in Dallas.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--We mentioned UM’s Harris throwing four TD passes, but the junior signal caller continued to make some costly mistakes that he needs to get cleaned up. For starters, he had a pair of interceptions, not to mention completing just 13-of-33 passes.

--FSU had six sacks against Virginia to bring its season total to 25.

--Oklahoma St. improved to 4-0 by rallying from a 14-point deficit at halftime to beat Texas A&M, 38-35. Some OSU backers cashed tickets as the line closed at either or 2 1/2 or three with the Cowboys as home favorites. The 24 fourth-quarter points allowed the 73 combined points to surge 'over' the 66-point total.

--On Friday, Utah St. snapped a 10-game losing streak to BYU and took home the 'Beehive Boot' thanks to a 31-16 win as a 4 1/2-point home underdog. The Aggies hooked up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-155 range. The Cougars will take a four-game losing streak into this Saturday's home game against San Diego St.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:22 PM

Week 5 Rewind, Part II

If there was ever any doubt, let’s put it to rest right now. Nick Saban has no peer among college football head coaches. For the second time in 10 months, Saban gave Florida’s Urban Meyer a lesson in Head Coaching 1101 when Alabama spanked Florida by a 31-6 count Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The Crimson Tide raced out to a 24-0 lead and for all intents and purposes, the game was over. The 37 combined points never threatened the 48-point total.

After needing to rally in a gut-check win at Arkansas, Alabama issued a beatdown similar to the one it gave the Gators in Atlanta last December. Now the Tide face a dangerous road game Saturday at South Carolina.

The Gamecocks, who are 3-1 after losing a nail-biter at Auburn, have had an open date to get ready for the nation’s top-ranked squad. The Wynn in Las Vegas opened Alabama as a 10-point favorite early Sunday evening, but most books had settled at 'Bama minus eight by early Monday morning.

Florida returns home to face unbeaten LSU. As of Monday morning, most spots had the Gators listed as 7 1/2-point favorites. ’

Stanford jumped all over Oregon in Eugene, leading 21-3 at the end of the first quarter. The Cardinal would go to intermission with a 31-24 advantage. However, the Ducks exploded in the second half, scoring all 28 points en route to a 52-31 win as seven-point favorites.

Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas was the catalyst, throwing for 238 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 117 yards and another score. LaMichael James also enjoyed a monster performance, turning 31 carries into 257 yards and three TDs.

The Ducks will take their 5-0 record on the road next week at Washington St. They’ll then have an open date before hosting UCLA on a Thursday night. Meanwhile, Stanford will take on USC this Saturday in Palo Alto. The Wynn opened the Cardinal as an eight-point favorite vs. the Trojans, who are coming off their first loss of the season.

Washington went into Los Angeles and emerged with a 32-31 win thanks to a 32-yard field goal by Eric Folk, who also booted a game winner to beat USC last season. With less than three minutes remaining, the Trojans missed a field goal that would’ve given them a 34-29 lead.

Jake Locker and the Huskies took full advantage. The senior QB orchestrated a long drive that set up the kick to give Washington its first win at The Coliseum since 1996. The 2-2 Huskies have a pair of home games on deck against Arizona St. and Oregon St.

Oklahoma cashed tickets and improved to 5-0 by beating Texas 28-20 as a four-point favorite in the annual Red River battle in Dallas. The Sooners get an open date before hosting Iowa St.

Texas is also off this week with a road trip to face Nebraska looming on Oct. 16. Are the Longhorns going to lose a third straight game? They’ll undoubtedly be underdogs against the Cornhuskers in Lincoln.

Trailing by 14 at halftime, Texas did at least rally and make it a one-possession game. Most importantly, bettors taking the Longhorns at pick ‘em (plus-14) for second-half bets were rewarded with a winner.

For the first time in 20 years, Georgia has lost four in a row and the growing reality is that Mark Richt’s job security is in question. We saw how quickly things fell apart for Phillip Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville in 2008 at Tennessee and Auburn, respectively.

I ignorantly backed Georgia as a 4 ½-point road favorite Saturday at Colorado. My thinking was that A.J. Green would provide a huge boost and that the Dawgs would play extremely hard for their beleaguered coach. Green did provide a spark, catching seven passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns. He also had a 40-yard run.

But the Dawgs failed to get it done in the fourth quarter for the fourth straight week. Trailing 14-3 early, they stormed back to take a 17-14 lead at halftime. A TD early in the third quarter gave UGA a 24-14 advantage.

When CU went up 29-24, Georgia had to settle for a short field goal midway through the final stanza. Then within field-goal range for a go-ahead kick with less than two minutes left, Caleb King got stripped. The Buffaloes ran out the clock to capture a 29-27 win and hook their backers up with a nice money-line payout in the plus-165 range.

Dan Hawkins will need more than a win over 1-4 Georgia to get off the hot seat, but a 3-1 record gives him a glimmer of hope. CU plays at Missouri this week.

At last, let’s talk about Les Miles, who was working on his masterpiece to get a doctorate in Clock-Management Ineptitude against Tennessee. As it turned out, though, LSU won a 16-14 decision over the Vols thanks to a UT penalty that gave the Tigers one untimed down in which Stevan Ridley bullied his way into the end zone to give the Tigers a 5-0 record.

But Miles looks like a goat once again. If LSU would’ve lost, it would’ve been worse than Miles’ knucklehead decisions in last year’s loss at Ole Miss. This space has come to expect these sort of kindergarten-like mistakes from Miles, who simply has zero grasp of the elementary concepts of managing the clock at the end of a football game.

Following a 24-3 home win over Penn St., Iowa will get an open date before taking a 4-1 record to The Big House to face Michigan on Oct. 16. Also in the Big Ten, Michigan St. stayed unbeaten with a 34-24 victory over Wisconsin as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Spartans now go to Ann Arbor to face Michigan with both teams sporting identical 5-0 ledgers.

The Wolverines won its Big Ten opener 42-35 at Indiana behind another brilliant performance from Denard Robinson, who scored the game-winning TD on a four-yard run with 17 ticks remaining. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers covered the number as 10-point home underdogs.

Robinson completed 10-of-16 passes for 277 yards and three TDs without throwing an interception. He also rushed for 217 yards and two more TDs on 19 carries.

As of early Monday morning, most betting shops had Michigan as a five-point home favorite against the Spartans.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The play calling by UF offensive coordinator Steve Addazio was absolutely atrocious in the team’s loss at Alabama. Every time John Brantley made a few nice throws to move the ball into Tide territory, Adazzio would go back to the ineffective running game and Brantley’s next chance to make a play would have to come on 3rd and eight or longer with ‘Bama sending the blitz.

--Stanford QB Andrew Luck’s stat line in the loss at Oregon: 26-of-49 for 341 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Luck also scrambled for 39 yards, including a 10-yard TD run.

--Boise St. had to lay 43 ½ points for its trip to New Mexico St., but that wasn’t a problem for gamblers backing the Broncos. They trounced the Aggies 59-0 and were already ahead of the number with a 52-0 lead at the end of the third quarter.

--ESPN's Game Day crew will be in Columbia this week for Alabama at South Carolina.

--My Top Ten:
1-Alabama
2-Oregon
3-Boise State
4-Oklahoma
5-Ohio State
6-Miami
7-Nebraska
8-Auburn
9-Florida
10-Stanford

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:24 PM

Games to Watch - Week 6

There were plenty of surprising outcomes last weekend in college football. The most notable for me were the Gators getting blown out of Alabama. Next on that list is Stanford getting shut out of the second half in its loss to the Ducks…especially after building a 21-3 early lead. Will we see more of the same this weekend? Let’s look at some of the better matchups.

Saturday - Michigan State at Michigan (8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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This matchups looks like it was more of a collision course between bitter rivals than anything else. The Spartans come into this game after a dominant win at home against Wisconsin. Kirk Cousins has been smart about his throws, completing 75.5 percent of his passes. But Michigan State's defense is 20th in the nation by giving up 101.2 rushing yards per game. That's going to insanely important this weekend as the Wolverines are sending out ESPN's favorite flavor of 2010, Denard Robinson. The sophomore signal caller has been practically unstoppable this season with 382.6 total yards per game on offense, to rank second in the nation. And he's coming off of a clutch last minute touchdown pass to beat Indiana last weekend. The Wolverines need Robinson to make things happen because they are not all that great on defense, ranking dead last in FBS with 307.8 YPG through the air. The early line for this tilt has the Wolverines as 4.5-point home favorites. Yet the gambling public has sided with Michigan State, evidenced by 95 percent of the cash at Sportsbook.com came in on Mark Dantonio's club. That might have something to do with the fact that Sparty has won and covered both of their meetings against Michigan in the Rich Rodriguez era. And the Wolverines are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS as home faves over the last two seasons in the Big Ten as the 'over' posted a 3-1 mark. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS as a road pup in conference play in Mark Dantonio's tenure as head coach, with the 'over' going 4-1.

Saturday - Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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Alabama proved that they are the top team in the land after a 31-6 pasting of the Gators in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night. Mark Ingram only had 47 rushing yards, but punished Florida with two touchdowns in the win. It's not like he hasn't been busy in three games of work as he's gained 355 yards on the ground with six scores to Ingram's credit. South Carolina no doubt be focusing on both Ingram and Trent Richardson (419 rushing yards, 4 TD) with a defense that is allowing 128.3 rushing YPG this season. The Gamecocks have had a week off to prepare for this contest. South Carolina does have some concern with Stephen Garcia under center. Garcia has been statistically strong (743 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT), but two late fumbles against Auburn pushed them onto a 35-27 defeat. The oddsmakers have posted the Crimson Tide as 7.5-point road favorites. That line seems a bit surprising since Alabama has gone 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS as roadd faves in SEC play under Nick Saban. Perhaps that's because the Tide are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS in their games after playing Florida. South Carolina hasn't been a smart play for gamblers as a home pup with Steve Spurrier running the show, evidenced by a 2-9 SU and 4-6-1 ATS. Alabama might be 2-1 SU in its last three head-to-heads with the Gamecocks, but Spurrier's club has covered the number in two of those three meetings.

Saturday - Florida State at Miami (8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

vs.
The idea to put Miami in a seperate division in the ACC than Florida State was for them to meet up in the conference title game. That hasn't happened once yet. Hell, the Hurricanes have yet to win their division. This season, however, looks like it could be a definite possiblity with Miami right behind the Hokies in the Coastal Division, while the 'Noles are atop the Atlantic Division. Miami comes into this game after going 2-1 in its road trip from hell, closing it out with dominating wins over Pitt and Clemson. But all is not well with the 'Canes as Jacory Harris is "questionable" after hurting his shoulder against Clemson. That means that Damien Berry and Lamar Miller will be called on to pound the ball on offense. Florida State will be waiting for that duo as they're fourth in the country against the run, surrendering 74.8 YPG on the ground. The Seminoles have responded after their beating at Oklahoma with three straight wins by a combined score of 99-24. To keep up that kind of play will rely on Christian Ponder's ability to thrown on a Miami defense that is only giving up 136.0 YPG. Miami is coming into the game as a 6.5-point home "chalk" for this possible ACC Title Game prequel. That might not be such a good thing seeing as the road team is the play here as they're 4-0 SU and ATS. The Hurricanes also have some issues for our purposes in their first home test after a three-game road trip, evidenced by a 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS record. The 'over' has hit in three straight meetings between these rivals. But the 'under' is 24-8 over the last five years for the 'Canes at home and FSU has seen the 'under' go 3-1 in its last four road dates.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

vs.
This has been one of the more entertaining series to watch year in and year out. However, Les Miles has shown that he's more lucky than a good head coach (LSU's win over the Volunteers is proof of that). And Urban Meyer's Gators aren't like we're used to seeing over the past few seasons after the beating they took at Alabama. Florida does have the positive of covering the number in five straight games against the Tigers.

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Oregon State won a nice Pac-10 opener against the Sun Devils last weekend. Now they take on one of the best passing attacks they'll see in the conference with the Wildcats. Arizona does have the benefit of a week of rest and knowledge that they're 6-1 ATS in its last seven games at home against Pac-10 foes. Yet, the Beavers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:26 PM

College Football Odds: LSU visits Florida

The Southeastern Conference has won the last four football national championships, and it remains the premier conference in the country. However, Saturday’s matchup between Louisiana State and Florida might be lacking some luster despite being a battle between SEC division leaders.

The Tigers remained 12th in the latest Associated Press top-25 poll despite some fortunate circumstances to keep the team undefeated. Coach Les Miles’ team currently sits atop the SEC West standings with a 3-0 conference ledger, ahead of 2-0 Alabama and Auburn.

The Gators dropped from seventh to 14th in the AP poll, and hope to rebound from a tough setback. Coach Urban Meyer’s squad remains atop the SEC East with a 2-1 conference slate, ahead of South Carolina and Vanderbilt at 1-1.

Most offshore sports books monitored by Don Best Real-Time Odds opened Florida as a nine-point home ‘chalk’ over Louisiana State, with no total posted. Some sports books have taken this contest ‘off the board’ due to the ‘questionable’ status of Gators quarterback John Brantley, who suffered a rib injury against the Crimson Tide. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Saturday’s SEC clash beginning at 4:30 p.m. PT from Florida’s Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

LSU (5-0 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) continued its winning ways after escaping with a victory over Tennessee last weekend as a 16 ½-point home favorite, 16-14. The combined 30 points never seriously threatened the 43 ½-point NCAAF odds closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the fourth consecutive contest. That triumph also marked the second consecutive contest that the Bayou Bengals failed to cover.

The Tigers appeared to have lost the game when they mishandled a snap on third-and-goal from the Tennessee one-yard line with the game clock winding down. LSU didn’t have a timeout and confusion reigned on both sides of the ball. The Tigers got one final play when the Vols were penalized for having too many men on the field, resulting in one last untimed play. Junior running back Stevan Ridley bullied his way into the end zone on the game’s final play for the improbable victory.

LSU has now started the season 5-0 SU for the second year in a row, and third time the previous four years. The Bayou Bengals finished the Tennessee game with advantages in first downs (20-12), rushing yards (219-96) and passing yards (215-121), but the game was close because the Vols forced four turnovers (one fumble, three interceptions) while committing none.

LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee was 16-of-23 passing for 185 yards with an interception, while Jordan Jefferson completed 3-of-10 passes for 30 yards and two interceptions. Ridley finished the game with 22 carries for 123 yards and a score, while Jefferson had five carries for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Florida (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) was overwhelmed by top-ranked Alabama last Saturday as a 7 ½-point road underdog, 31-6. The combined 37 points failed to eclipse the 47 ½-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings.

That marked Meyer’s second-most lopsided loss in his six seasons with the Gators. Florida was outscored in the second quarter, 21-3, and finished the contest trailing the Crimson Tide in first downs (18-17), rushing yards (170-79) and turnovers (4-0). The Gators did enjoy advantages in passing yards (202-103) and time of possession (32:50-27:10).

Brantley was 16-of-31 passing for 202 yards with two interceptions, connecting with wideout Deonte Thompson three times for 60 yards. Running back Jeffery Demps paced an anemic ground game with 47 yards on 11 carries.

Florida has won the last two meetings with Louisiana State SU, and the previous five encounters ATS. The Gators prevailed last season in Baton Rouge as a 9 ½-point road ‘chalk,’ 13-3. The combined 16 points never seriously threatened the 45 ½-point closing total, ending back-to-back ‘over’ outings in this series.

LSU wide receiver Chris Toliver (concussion), tight end Mitch Joseph (undisclosed) and defensive end Sam Montgomery (knee) are ‘questionable’ against the Gators.

Florida running back Jeff Demps (foot) is ‘probable’ versus the Tigers, while offensive lineman James Wilson (knee), offensive lineman Matt Patchan (wrist), kicker Caleb Sturgis (back) and fullback Steven Wilds (back) are ‘questionable.’

LSU has seen the ‘over’ go 14-6 in its previous 20 road games, and the road team is 7-2 ATS the last nine meetings in this series. Florida is 19-8 ATS their past 27 outings overall, while the ‘under’ is 9-3 its previous 13 conference games. The ‘under’ is 11-3 the past 14 meetings between the Tigers and Gators.

Saturday’s forecast for Gainesville calls for mostly sunny skies, with a high of 83 degrees and a low of 62.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 03:27 PM

NCAAF Odds: Utah winning at betting window

Five weeks into the college football season and only two teams still have a perfect spread record.

It’s not Boise State, Oregon or Alabama. Want another hint? OK, both teams play in the Mountain West Conference.

San Diego State (4-0 ATS) and Utah (3-0-1 ATS) are the lone schools who have yet to lose against the spread. Both the Aztecs and Utes were able to protect their perfect ATS marks as each was idle this past Saturday.

The previous four unbeaten spread teams – Ohio State, North Carolina State, Central Michigan and Virginia – all failed to cover with the Wolfpack and Cavaliers each losing by double-digits as home underdogs.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

North Carolina State was especially popular with bettors following its victories against Central Florida, Cincinnati and Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack opened plus five against Virginia Tech. The line closed 3 ½.

Things looked good for North Carolina State as it built a 17-0 lead. But the Hokies scored two touchdowns during the final 88 seconds to win, 41-30. The Wolfpack outgained the Hokies, 507-440.

Bettors also steamed Virginia. The Cavaliers closed as 6 ½-point college football betting underdogs after opening as high as plus 12 against Florida State. The Seminoles, however, rolled to a 34-14 victory.

On the other end of the spectrum, the worst pointspread teams all held serve. New Mexico remained No. 1 on the bottom. The Lobos are 0-5 ATS. Following the Lobos are New Mexico State, Rutgers and Boston College all at 0-4 ATS.

The big news from Saturday, though, wasn’t New Mexico losing 38-20 as 15-point home underdogs to UTEP.

No, Alabama beating Florida, Oklahoma getting past Texas and Oregon defeating Stanford would hold slightly more significance.

The Crimson Tide easily covered an eight-point NCAAF spread by downing Urban Meyer’s Gators, 31-6. It’s the first time Meyer has failed to cover in an underdog role since 2003 while coaching at Utah and Florida. He previously was 10-0 ATS.

The last time Florida was taking points was versus LSU in 2007. The Gators had been 3-0 ATS as a ‘dog since Meyers came on board in 2005.

Boise State continues to get support in the marketplace. The Broncos were bet up from 37-point favorites against hapless New Mexico State to 43 ½ and responded with a 59-0 victory.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Broncos need to continue to impress the pollsters and hope for lots of upsets if they want to have a realistic shot at making the BCS championship game.

Some bettors have used this thinking, too, as part of their handicap to TCU. The Horned Frogs were bet up from minus 30 to 34 against Colorado State, but failed to cover the number winning, 27-0. This was just the second time in their last 11 games that the Rams have covered the spread.

As good as Utah and San Diego State have been in the Mountain West Conference that’s how disappointing BYU has been.

Perhaps it’s the knowledge that they’ll be leaving the Mountain West, but the Cougars have been terrible this season losing and failing to cover in their last four games to Air Force, Florida State, Nevada and Utah State.

BYU has lost these four games on the pointspread by a combined 61 points.

Many believe USC to be one of the more overpriced teams. The Trojans lived up to that losing 32-31 to Washington as a 9 ½-point home favorite. USC has now failed to cover in 16 of its last 21 ‘lined’ games.

Akron did its things, too, failing to cover as a 13 ½-point home ‘dog to Northern Illinois, falling 50-14. The Zips are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 ‘lined’ games, including 1-4 ATS this season.

**BettorsChat** · 10-05-2010, 03:47 PM

Stardust why don't you post some of this trend info up there with Udog?

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 07:33 PM

Tuesday's Nights CFB Play:

Tuesday, October 5Game Score Status Pick Amount

Troy - 8:00 PM ET Troy +3 500 *****
Middle Tennessee St. - Under 63.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 10-05-2010, 10:56 PM

Oregon State gets 8 points at Arizona

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OREGON STATE BEAVERS (2-2)
at ARIZONA WILDCATS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Arizona -8, Total: 50

Oregon State plays its third current AP top-10 team when it travels to Tucson to take on Arizona. Oregon State has already lost to No. 4 Boise State and No. 5 TCU this year, but the Beavers covered the spread in both of those games. Arizona’s defense has been stellar this year, ranking 2nd in the nation in total defense (231 YPG). If you remove the 20 second-half points allowed to Iowa, Arizona has only given up 24 total points in the other 14 quarters of play. The news out of Tucson is that WR Juron Criner (turf toe) should be able to play at nearly 100 percent on Saturday.

******* take:
A healthy Criner (nine TD last year) can only help an already potent offense. Criner caught the game-winning touchdown against Cal last game and now the junior will go up against a below-average secondary ranked 87th in the nation (240 YPG). QB Nick Foles has not had a great year (6 TD, 4 INT), but he did throw for 254 yards and three scores in last year’s 37-32 win over OSU, including a 3-yard TD pass to Criner.

The Beavers are 9-2 in their last 11 games against the Wildcats, including four straight wins at Arizona. This FoxSheets coaching trend thinks Oregon State will win five in a row in Tucson.

Oregon State head coach Mike Riley is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of OREGON ST. The average score was OREGON ST 30.7, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Eight of the past 10 games have gone Under the total, and this FoxSheets trend about Arizona also predicts the Under on Saturday.

ARIZONA is 45-20 UNDER (+23.0 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. The average score was ARIZONA 22.5, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:15 PM

Julio Jones hampered by knee injury

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (5-0)
at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (3-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Alabama -6.5, Total: 48.5

Following its 31-6 crushing of Florida last Saturday night, Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (9.0 PPG) and ranks in the top 20 in scoring offense (37.8 PPG) and total offense (464 YPG). But the Tide could be missing its top receiver on Saturday as Julio Jones is questionable with a bruised knee. Jones leads Alabama with 24 catches for 322 yards this season.

******* take:
This doesn’t sound like an injury that would prevent somebody from playing. But even if Jones can’t suit up, he won’t be missed nearly as much as some other top receivers across the land. In Jones’ 32 career games, he has caught at least one pass in 31 of those contests. The one goose egg he had was last season against South Carolina. Alabama will likely stick to rushing the football, considering it rushed for 264 yards against the Gamecocks in last year’s 20-6 win. The Tide are averaging 230 rush YPG this year (17th in nation), which is nearly equal to their passing game (234 YPG).

These teams have only met once since 2006, but South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier had plenty of time to game-plan due to the Cocks bye last week. This FoxSheets coaching trend shows Spurrier’s South Carolina team is capable of pulling off the upset.

Spurrier is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of S CAROLINA. The average score was S CAROLINA 25.1, OPPONENT 18.3 - (Rating = 4*).

The FoxSheets also predict the game will finish Under 49 points.

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (ALABAMA) - off a home win by 17 points or more, in October games. (36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:22 PM

Pryor expected to play Saturday vs. Indiana

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA HOOSIERS (3-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Ohio State -22, Total: 57.5

The story in this game is the health of QB Terrelle Pryor who suffered a strained left quadriceps and was limited in his running against Illinois last week. Head coach Jim Tressel said about Pryor, “I would expect every day he’ll get closer to 100 percent. I think he will be fine.”

******* take:
Even if he is “fine,” Pryor will not likely be the dual threat that gives so many opponents fits. He has averaged 75 rushing YPG and 203 passing YPG this year. On Saturday, Pryor will probably hand the ball off to Dan Herron (23 carries, 95 yards in last week’s win at Illinois) and sit back in the pocket on throwing downs. Pryor has certainly improved as a passer, completing a career-high 65 percent of his throws this year. He had four TD (three passing) in OSU’s 33-14 win at Indiana last year.

The Hoosiers have dropped 15 straight meetings with Ohio State, but this Indiana offense racked up 568 yards in a 42-35 home loss to Michigan last week. QB Ben Chappell (12 TD, 1 INT) and RB Darius Willis (95 total YPG, 5 TD) are both very capable of big games.

But this FoxSheets trend shows Ohio State knows how to handle good offenses, especially at the Horseshoe.

OHIO ST is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992. The average score was OHIO ST 30.7, OPPONENT 13.8 - (Rating = 3*).

And this FoxSheets trend favors the Over on Saturday.

Play Over - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (INDIANA) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. (39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +25.8 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 04:27 PM

UAB at UCF

If the MLB Playoffs isn’t your cup of tea, you have aother mid-week wagering option Wednesday night. Central Florida (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) is poised to host Alabama-Birmingham in a Conference USA showdown.

As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing UCF as a favorite in the 12-13 range, while the total was either 48 ½ or 49. Gamblers can back UAB (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) to win outright for a plus-375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).

George O’Leary’s team is coming off a tough 17-13 loss at Kansas St. The Wildcats got the game-winning touchdown with 24 seconds left on a seven-yard run by Carson Coffman. Nevertheless, the Knights hooked up their backers as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Ronnie Weaver rushed for 130 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries, but UFC couldn’t overcome the ineffective play of its quarterback. Jeff Godfrey completed only 8-of-18 passes for 92 yards and two interceptions, but he will still get the starting nod tonight.

UAB also had to check into The Heartbreak Hotel two weekends ago, losing at Tennessee by a 32-29 count in double overtime. Like UCF, however, the Blazers covered the number as 13-point road underdogs.

UCF has played twice previously at home, going 1-1 SU and 0-1 ATS. The Knights opened the year with a 38-7 win over South Dakota in a non-lined affair. Then in Week 2, they lost to once-beaten North Carolina St., 28-21.

UAB took the cash in its loss at UT, but the same can’t be said for its other road trip. The Blazers went down 28-7 at SMU as 11-point underdogs in Week 2. They’ve had a pair of nail-biters at home, losing 32-31 to FAU and beating Troy 34-33 on a last-second Hail Mary pass.

UFC senior linebacker Lawrence Young, who had a team-high 10 tackles for loss last year, missed the loss at K-St. with a concussion and is “questionable” tonight.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 for UAB this year. Dating back to last season, the Blazers have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 7-2 clip in their last nine outings.

The ‘under’ has been a winner in all three of UCF’s games with a total.

UCF has won six of seven all-time meetings between these schools, posting a 4-2 spread record in the process. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four encounters.

When these teams met in Birmingham last year, UCF captured a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite. Brynn Harvey paced the Knights with 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Harvey, a junior RB who had knee surgery in the spring, is hoping to return at some point later this month.

ESPN will have television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Florida is 21-11-1 as a home favorite during Urban Meyer’s six-year tenure. As of early this morning, most books had the Gators favored by seven.

--South Carolina went 3-0 ATS as a home underdog last season, beating Ole Miss and Clemson outright and covering as a double-digit ‘dog vs. Florida. The Gamecocks are 6 ½-point home puppies Saturday vs. Alabama.

--Before Kentucky went into Auburn and won a 21-14 decision last season, the Tigers had beaten the Wildcats 15 straight times. They’ll collide in Lexington on Saturday with most spots tabbing Auburn as a six-point road ‘chalk.’

--Since 2001, Vandy is 5-13 ATS as a home favorite. The Commodores are favored by 26 vs. Eastern Michigan this week.

--Oregon State owns an 8-1 spread record in its last nine road underdog situations. The Beavers, who get WR James Rodgers back after he missed last week's win over Arizona St., are 7 1/2-point 'dogs at Arizona.

**StarDust Bum** · 10-06-2010, 07:20 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/05/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/02/10 31-41-1 43.06% -7050 Detail
10/01/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
Totals 34-42-1 44.74% -6100

Wednesday, October 6Game Score Status Pick Amount

Alabama-Birmingham - 8:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +11.5 500 *****
Central Florida - Under 48.5 500*****

Good Luck !

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (10/5 - 10/9) + More & MY BEST BETS !

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