NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (10/5 - 10/9)

[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, October 8

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Tips and Trends
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Connecticut Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights [ESPN | 7:30 PM ET]

HUSKIES: (-4.5, O/U 42) Connecticut is 3-1 this season, both SU and ATS. Thus far, the point spread hasn't mattered in UCONN games this year. The Huskies have won their past 2 games at home thanks to an explosive offense, scoring more than 40 PTS in each game. UCONN is averaging nearly 210 rushing YPG this season, led by RB Jordan Todman. Todman has rushed for 638 YDS this season, including 7 TD's. For the Huskies to ultimately win the Big East this year, the passing game will need to improve. Unfortunately, the Huskies are far too one dimensional and predictable. The Huskies are improving on defense after a very shaky start to the season. UCONN is allowing 21 PPG this season, the 44th best mark in the nation. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. UCONN is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

Huskies are 9-4 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-0 last 6 conference games overall.

Key Injuries - T Adam Masters (arm) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

SCARLET KNIGHTS: Rutgers has been a tough team to figure out this year, as they haven't lived up to the expectations placed upon them. Rutgers only has 1 SU win against FBS competition, and are a terrible 0-4 ATS this season. The Scarlet Knights have yet to win a game at home this year against FBS competition, including a 3 point loss to Tulane last week. That loss to Tulane was inexcusable considering they were a 17 home favorite for that contest. Offensively, Rutgers has only scored 20 PTS or more once this season, and that was against FCS competition. The Scarlet Knights are very predicable on offense, and as a result are only averaging 19.3 PPG. This poor offense keeps this team from covering spreads when they are the listed favorite. The Scarlet Knights do have a sound defense, as they are only allowing 12 PPG, 4th best in the nation. No team has scored more than 14 PTS against them this year. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games overall. Rutgers is 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 PTS.
Over is 8-3 in the Scarlet Knights last 11 conference games.

Key Injuries - WR Phil Lewis (upper body) is probable.

Projected Score: 14


Oklahoma St. Cowboys at UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns [9:00 PM ET]

COWBOYS: (-23.5, O/U 62) Oklahoma St. is off to a perfect 4-0 SU record, which has netted them the #23 ranking in the national polls. The Cowboys are also 3-1 ATS this year, with all 4 games coming as the listed favorite. Tonight will be the largest favorite spread the Cowboys have seen this year, and the 3rd time this season they've been a double digit favorite. Tonight's game will also be the first time this year that Oklahoma St. will play on the road. The Cowboys are 22-2 SU all time against the Sun Belt conference. Oklahoma St. has a dynamic offense that is averaging 52.3 PPG, 2nd most in the nation. QB Brandon Weeden has been amazing this season, managing this offense with the skill players he has at his disposal. WR Justin Blackmon has 558 receiving YDS this season with 9 TD's. Blackmon is ranked in the top 10 in most receiver categories in all of FBS teams. RB Kendall Hunter is averaging 143.5 rushing YPG this season, 6th in the nation. Defensively, the Cowboys must improve as they are allowing far too many points, 29.5 PPG to be exact. The Cowboys are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Oklahoma St. is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of more than 10 PTS.

Cowboys are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or more.
Under is 11-2 last 13 road games.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 51 (SIDE of the Day)

RAGIN CAJUNS: UL Lafayette is no stranger to playing against bigger conferences, as this team was able to beat Kansas St. outright last year at home. The Ragin Cajuns are coming off a very emotional road win at North Texas, where they blocked an extra point attempt for the win. UL Lafayette were a 5 point underdog in that game, so they will come into tonight's game feeling confident. The Rajin Cajuns have a slightly better passing game than running game, led by QB Chirs Masson. Masson threw for more than 300 YDS in his last game, and will be looking for something similar against a high powered offense like Oklahoma St. Unfortunately, the Ragin Cajuns are only averaging 20 PPG this year, 94th best in the nation. Defensively, UL Lafayette has given up at least 24 PTS to each opponent. They are allowing 35 PPG, the 12th worst in the country. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October. UL Lafayette is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the Big 12 conference. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.

Ragin Cajuns are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - WR Ross Goodlett (hamstring) is probable.

Projected Score: 17


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Friday, October 8

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Connecticut Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+5, 41.5)

Why UConn will cover

For the Huskies, its all about the switch at quarterback. Under Zach Frazer, UConn got off to a mediocre 1-2 start and the passing offense had just two touchdowns, both against lowly Texas Southern. During the second half of the Buffalo game, coach Randy Edsall decided to put in Cody Endres, who ended up 7-for-11 for 139 yards and two TDs in an eventually 45-21 win.

The momentum carried over into last week’s 40-21 win over Vanderbilt. The Huskies’ current form couldn’t come at a better time with conference play beginning Friday night. Rutgers has yet to cover a spread this season and it has not shown much on offense, scoring just 19.2 points per game, which ranks 90th in the nation.

Why Rutgers will cover

For all the talk about Rutgers’s offensive woes, including the questionable status of quarterback Tom Savage, many are forgetting that statistically the Scarlet Knights have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 13th in yards allowed at 266.8 per game and are fourth in points allowed at 12.0 ppg. A key player on defense is Antonio Lowery, who recorded 13 tackles last week against Tulane.

This matchup has been close in recent years, with Rutgers winning 12-10 in 2008 and coming out on top again last year, beating UConn 28-24.

Notes and trends

The line opened at -6 in favor of UConn and has since moved down to -5 at most books. The under has moved a half point down to 41.5. The last three Rutgers games have gone under the total.



Oklahoma State Cowboys at UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+24, 62)

Why Oklahoma State will cover

It will be hard to top the energy of last Thursday’s thriller against Texas A&M, but the Cowboys proved that they were a quality team last week. Twenty-four is a huge number, but Oklahoma State has the offensive fire power and personnel mismatches to cover that spread.

The only BCS team that the Ragin’ Cajuns have played was Georgia and they gave up 55 points again UGA. Now remember, this isn’t the Georgia team with Matt Stafford at the helm, this a Georgia team that ranks 79th in points scored.

Also in the last two years, UL Lafayette has failed to cover a game in which it was underdogs by 20 points or more.

Why UL Lafayette will cover

Rarely does a Sun Belt team get national TV attention, so with a ranked team coming for a visit you can expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to bring their best. This, oddly enough, is the first road game for Oklahoma State and ULL has recently done well against BCS teams at home, upsetting Kansas State last year 17-15. Quarterback Chris Mason has shown steady improvement and is coming off a 300-yard game.

Twenty-four points is a tough spread to cover for a team that ranks 97th in yards given up at 414.5 per game. There’s no doubt the Cowboys will get their points, but the weak defense combined with the second-string factor leave Oklahoma State vulnerable to a backdoor cover.

Notes and trends

One-point line movement from -23 to -24 was expected with last Thursday’s game still on the minds of most bettors. Huge difference in popular opinion with nearly 80 percent of wagers on Oklahoma State.

The total of 62 is high but justified, with both teams a combined 7-1 over/under this year.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 9

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (-6, 48)

Bobby Bowden won’t be on the sideline, and the game might lack the luster of some previous meetings. But Saturday’s Florida State-Miami contest at Sun Life Stadium remains compelling.

Line moves

Oddsmakers opened Miami as high as a 7-point home favorite which has since dropped as low as -6 as of Friday afternoon. The total opened at 48.5 and has dropped half a point to its current standing.

Close calls

Seven of the past 11 meetings in this storied rivalry have been decided by four points or less, and this year’s matchup should be close, too. The underdog has covered in 10 of those 11 games, including Miami’s 38-34 win as a 6-point dog last year.

Both teams are coming off impressive wins and are unbeaten in the ACC.

Florida State (4-1, 2-0 ACC) moved back into the rankings at No. 24 after a 34-13 win at Virginia, the Seminoles’ third solid performance since a 47-17 loss at Oklahoma. They have gone 3-0 against the spread in that span as well.

Miami (3-1, 1-0) moved up to No. 13 after a tough 30-21 win at Clemson. This will be the Hurricanes’ first home game since their season opener Sept. 2.

Under center of attention

Saturday’s game features two quarterbacks tabbed as potential Heisman candidates entering the season - Jacory Harris for Miami and Christian Ponder for FSU. But interceptions have plagued Harris at times this season. And Ponder, who posted four 300-yard games last season, is averaging only 168 yards passing a game. Still, he has gone three games without throwing an interception.

Turnovers could determine the outcome. Miami had six takeaways last week against Clemson - the most a Hurricanes team has forced since 2005. Florida State is 6-13 since 2000 when turning the ball over four or more times and 83-32 when it has three turnovers or less. For their part, the Seminoles have forced eight turnovers this season, five of them interceptions.

News and notes

Both teams bring strong defensive fronts. They rank 1-2 in the nation in both sacks and tackles for loss.

Florida State junior running back Ty Jones missed the Virginia game with an ankle injury and is questionable for Saturday’s game. Miami could be without junior defensive end Marcus Robinson, who has not played since sustaining a knee injury against Ohio State.

Miami leads the series 30-23 and won last year’s game in Tallahassee 38-34 when Jarmon Fortson couldn’t hang onto a pass in the end zone from Ponder on the final play. Ponder would love to atone for that loss by delivering a Seminoles victory and birthday present for first-year head coach Jimbo Fisher, who turns 45 on Saturday.

Miami has won seven of the past 10 meetings, going 6-4 ATS in that span.

The forecast for Saturday’s game is calling for clear skies and an 11-mph wind blowing across the field.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 9

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Game of the day: LSU at Florida
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LSU Tigers at Florida Gators (-6, 42)

No. 12 Florida (4-1) hosts No. 9 LSU (5-0) in a battle of SEC division leaders at The Swamp in Gainesville Saturday night.

Gator aid

After a disheartening loss at Alabama, Florida is turning the page to prepare for another unbeaten team this week.

Forget the question that lingers most on Gator-nation: How do you not score a touchdown when you have the ball inside the other team's five-yard line three times?

The Gators will surely need to improve its red-zone execution after turning the ball over twice on a fumble and interception inside Alabama's two-yard line.

Florida is coming off its first regular season loss in more than two years, a string of 24 games without a defeat. The last time Florida lost before the postseason, Ole Miss stunned the Gators, 31-30, in The Swamp on September 27, 2008.

That defeat prompted an emotional speech from former Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, which motivated the Gators to run the table and win a BCS title.

"We still have a lot of ball left," Florida senior offensive lineman Carl Johnson said. "You never know how the season can end. We’ve just got to rally up. We've got a big game this weekend, and it's not a slouch."

Bounce back ability

Florida coach Urban Meyer is wary of LSU's running game, led by SEC leading rusher Stevan Ridley. Meyer is anxious to see how his team responds to adversity.

"There is no magic solution," Meyer said on his television show. "No magic solution in '06, no magic solution in '08. When a team struggles, what do you do? You come out and work a little harder and get a little better.

"You find out a lot about a team, not when winning 48-12. You find out a lot about a team when you get hit ... a little bit and come right back."

Florida linebacker Brandon Hicks went on to say, “Some people say a team is only as good as how they bounce back and how they stick together. I think this is like that one punch that knocked us out and opened our eyes."

Admirable, A-D-M-I-R-A-B-L-E

Coach Meyer called his defensive performance against Alabama "admirable."

To grade last week’ game in a spelling contest parlance, the Gators missed just six tackles. That was a significant improvement after missing 22 tackles in their previous meeting against the Crimson Tide.

But Alabama gained 170 yards rushing on five yards per carry, while converting four of nine third-down attempts.

Florida will need to improve up front to stop an LSU offense that will certainly look to establish the run early in the game.

Idiot, I-D-I-O-T

On the heels of another late-game meltdown last week that nearly cost the Tigers a victory against Tennessee, LSU head coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton have been under fire by fans and media.

When asked about the idiotic play calling in the final 30 seconds of last week’s miracle win over the Vols, LSU head coach Les Miles appeared unfazed.

"I think it's a completely different scenario. It's a clock-management issue without question, but it's not the same. This specifically was trying to use a down, not give up a down, and that was a mistake. That was not the mistake that was made at Ole Miss."

There have been discussions this week between Miles and Crowton about where Crowton will be on game day.

Since he arrived in 2007, Crowton has called plays from a press box booth. The last two seasons the Tigers’ offense has struggled and several games have been punctuated by on-field confusion, especially late in games.

“We talked about the possibility of being on the field for coach Crowton more for the quarterbacks than anything,” Miles said. “We’re still talking about it, but nothing been done there offensively and I’m not sure that would work.”

Miles dismissed the notion that there’s a communication problem between him and Crowton.

“The play-calling, minus the gaffe at the back end, the last drive was really excellent. I’d like to get those and get by a short span of time when mistakes were made.

Two-headed QB’s

Apparently, Miles and his staff liked what they saw from both quarterbacks in LSU's victory over Tennessee, and the Tigers once again will split time between juniors Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee in their game at Florida.

Jefferson scored on an 83-yard run on the game's first play from scrimmage on his way to a 100-yard rushing day against the Volunteers. He completed only three of 10 passes for 30 yards, however, with an interception.

Lee was 16-of-23 for 185 yards and also threw an interception.

"We have a week to determine who starts and who doesn't," Miles said. "I think that both will play certainly in a like situation and in a like way that they were played in the last game."

Miles said he thought both quarterbacks had similar enough skills that it wouldn't necessarily telegraph to Florida what was coming depending on which one was in the game, but it's obvious Jefferson is the bigger running threat.

Jefferson has 189 net yards rushing, second to tailback Ridley's 557 for the season. Lee is minus-15 yards rushing on the season.

"We know as a team that if we put Jordan in that he has the option to both pass and run the ball," sophomore WR Rueben Randle said. "With Jarrett in, its more of we know that Stevan is going to run the ball or Jarrett is going to pass it.”

Pivotal

Florida has been a pivotal game for LSU the last two years. The Tigers were 5-0 last year when they took on the Gators and only 4-3 after losing the game 13-3, in posting 162 total yards of offense, thereafter.

In 2008, the Tigers were 4-0 going to Gainesville, but after a 51-21 loss to the Gators, they were only 4-4 the rest of the way.

LSU looks to go 4-0 in SEC play for the first time since 1987.

Only a handful of key players on the young LSU squad have played significant time against Florida in Gainesville.

"We've got a lot of players traveling for the first time to a hostile place. Florida's probably one of the closest places you'll get to Death Valley," said LSU sophomore receiver Russell Shepard. "This is going to be the best team we've played, and we recognize that."

Chew on this

• Florida is 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 10 points under Meyer.

• Meyer is 14-2 straight up and 12-4 against the spread in games off a loss, including 3-0 ATS when facing an undefeated opponent.

• LSU is 4-9 against the spread as a dog off a win versus an opponent off a loss.

• Miles is 15-1 straight up and 11-4 against the spread off back-to-back wins versus an opponent off a loss.


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[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 9

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Tips and Trends
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Michigan St. Spartans at Michigan Wolverines [ABC | 3:30 PM ET]

SPARTANS: Michigan St. is coming off their best performance of the season, a 34-24 SU victory over Wisconsin. The Spartans were the listed underdog in that game, just like they will be today. Michigan St. has been very consistent on offense this year, scoring at least 30 PTS in each game this season. The Spartans have no real weakness, as they rank in the top 40 in nearly every statistical category as a team. Credit Coach Dantonio for the Spartans overall balance this year. Michigan St. is averaging 240.4 passing YPG and 220 rushing YPG this season, both top 40 offensive marks. QB Kirk Cousins is doing a masterful job managing this offense, as they are 24th in the nation in scoring offense at 36.2 PPG. The Spartans defense has to step up again today against an explosive offense, no small feat after dealing with the physical Wisconsin offense last week. Michigan St. is allowing an average of 18.6 PPG this season. The Spartans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan St. is 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Spartans are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 26-9-1 last 36 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - T Zach Hueter (shoulder) is out.

Projected Score: 34

WOLVERINES: (-4.5, O/U 64.5) Michigan has been one of the biggest stories of this college football season, as they have surprised many with their play. As a result of their 5-0 SU record, the Wolverines are ranked 18th in the nation coming into today. Michigan is led by their offense, which is being directed by all world duel threat QB Denard Robinson. Robinson has literally come out of nowhere to be the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy this year. Robinson leads the nation in rushing at 181 rushing YPG, and is 2nd in total offense at 382.6 YPG. With Robinson leading the way, the Wolverines are 2nd in the nation in total offense at 565 YPG. Michigan is also scoring 41.4 PPG, 9th best in the nation. Michigan has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past few meetings against their state rival. The Wolverines still need to shore up their defense a bit, as they've allowed their past 4 opponents to score at least 21 PTS. Today marks the 4th consecutive game that the Wolverines will be playing in front of their home fans. The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Michigan is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. The Wolverines are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

Wolverines 5-16 ATS last 21 conference games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - S Michael Williams (concussion) is questionable.

Projected Score: 41 (OVER-Total of the Day)



Pittsburgh Panthers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish [NBC | 3:30 PM ET]

PANTHERS: Pittsburgh has proved to be one of the most overrated teams that started the year ranked in the Top 25 polls. The Panthers are only 2-2 SU this season, with their best win coming last week against Florida International. That win against FIU was also the only game this year that Pittsburgh has won ATS, and even then they needed a huge 4th quarter to win. The Panthers are struggling offensively, only averaging 27.3 PPG. Having no better than a 70th ranked scoring offense isn't going to work with the expectations this team has. QB Tino Sunseri is showing his age, as he simply doesn't have the experience yet to lead this offensive attack. RB Dion Lewis has been a shell of what he was last year, and might be the most disappointing player in all of college football so far this year. Defensively, Pittsburgh is allowing 22.8 PPG, far worse than how they performed last season. Today's game will mark the 1st time the Panthers have traveled on the road since their season opening loss in Utah. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in October. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games on grass.

Panthers are 7-15 ATS last 22 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - RB T.J. Peeler (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

FIGHTING IRISH: (-6, O/U 49.5) Notre Dame played their most complete game of the season last week, a 31-13 SU victory on the road at Boston College. The Fighting Irish would love to build on that past performance with a SU win today, as it would get them back to .500. As it stands now, Notre Dame is 2-3 both SU and ATS this year. The Irish have an elite passing game, as they average nearly 300 passing YPG, 17th best in the country. Unfortunately, Notre Dame doesn't have much of rushing attack, which makes them far too one dimensional. QB Dayne Crist has thrown for 1,350 YDS and 10 TD's in leading this offense. Defensively, they are giving up 24.8 PPG, 69th best in the nation. The Irish have revenge on their minds today, as they've lost the past 2 meetings against Pitt by a total of 8 PTS. The Fighting Irish are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games in October. Notre Dame is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite. The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.

Pirates are 1-10 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 last 5 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - LB David Posluszny (hamstring) is quetionable.

Projected Score: 21


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday's games
Highlighted games
Michigan State coach Dantonio expected to be at game (had mild heart attack three weeks ago) as Spartans try for 3rd straight win vs Michigan (last won three straight in series, 1965-67). Spartans won last visit here 35-21, after losing previous five visits, all by 8+ points. Michigan is 4-7 as home fave under Rodriguez. State is 6-4 as home dog since 2006.

NC State coach O'Brien came to Raleigh from Boston College; Wolfpack lost last three series games by average score of 42-23, with only win in last five series games 17-15 in 2006, but BC is struggling to find QB, as prize freshman Rettig hurt ankle last week. This is first game for Boston College team that is 12-4 as road underdog since '03. State is 6-17 as fave at home since '03; they blew 17-0 lead in losing to Va Tech last week.

Clemson won five of last six games vs North Carolina, winning last three by average score of 43-12; favorites covered six of last eight series games. Tigers won last two visits here, 42-12/38-24, but they lost last couple of weeks, giving up 392 rushing yards to Auburn/Miami. Tar Heels won last two games, outscoring foes 38-6 in second half. Clemson is 8-2 as a road underdog since 2005.

Alabama is 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as road favorite, 4-1 overall as fave this year, with 24-20 win at Arkansas their only win by less than 21 points. Tide beat South Carolina 20-6 (-18) LY, outrushing Carolina 264-64. Gamecocks had last week off after 35-27 loss at Auburn, where they gave up 334 rushing yards- they're 16-14 as a dog under Spurrier.

LSU lost its last two visits to Florida, 51-21/23-10; they're 2-9 vs spread in last 11 series games (Gators covered last five). Florida is 5-0 vs spread in game following its last five losses; they're 24-13 as home favorite since '04, covering 15 of last 21. Tigers are 3-4 as road dog under Miles, who is unbeaten this year despite horrendous QB play- they allowed total of 38 points in last four games, all of which stayed under total.

Arizona State won, covered last six games vs Washington, all as favorite; they won last three visits here, 39-19/26-23/28-7, but are 0-3 this year vs I-A opponents, losing by 11 to unbeaten Oregon, 1 at Wisconsin, 3 at Oregon State. Sun Devils turned ball over 10 times last two games (-8). Washington (+10) upset USC last week, but they allowed 87 points in last two games, and are giving up average of 32.5 ppg this season.

UCLA won last three games, including win at Texas; Cal Bears lost last two games, but had last week off. Bruins lost last five visits to Berkeley by average of 13 points. UCLA is 4-7 as road underdog with Neuheisel. Bears covered 10 of last 12 as home favorite; the two losses reduce odds of Cal looking past this game to USC next week. Tedford's offense put up 38+ points in five of last six series games.

Underdog covered last five Pitt-Notre Dame games, winning four of last five SU; four of last five series games were decided by 6 or less points. Panthers won last two visits here, 36-33/41-38. Irish are 12-24 as home favorite since 2003- they snapped 3-game skid with 31-13 win at BC last week. Pitt is 7-2-1 vs spread as road underdogs since 2006. Average total in last four series games, 65.3.

Texas Tech won last 14 games vs Baylor, but Bears outgained Tech last two years, and Lubbock faithful are grumbling after 52-38 beatdown at Iowa State last week (ISU had 251 rushing yards). Baylor is 7-4 as dog away from Waco under Briles (this game is in Dallas, neutral). Raiders are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Baylor crushed Kansas 55-7 last week, running ball for 244 yards, passing for 434 more.

Arkansas (-1.5) beat Texas A&M 47-19 on this neutral field LY; Hogs are just 2-4 in last six tries as road favorite, have SEC rival Auburn next. Aggies are 7-12-1 vs spread as underdog since '07- they lost wild 38-35 game at Oklahoma State last week, outgaining OSU 535-351 but losing five turnovers. If young Weeden was 28-42/284 vs A&M defense, what will morepolished Mallett put up? Interesting game.

Underdogs are 7-1 SU in last eight Florida State-Miami games, with dog winning last five; dogs are 4-1 vs spread in Seminoles'last five visits here, with FSU winning last two, 41-39/13-10. Hurricanes won at 30-21 last week at Clemson, forcing six turnovers (+4) but they also had 105 yards in penalties. This is first home game vs I-A opponent for Miami, after scoring 28.3 ppg in Miami-Pitt-Clemson gauntlet (won two of three).

Oregon State won nine of last 11 games vs Arizona, with only losses by 2-5 points; Beavers won last four visits here, with Wildcats scoring only 10 ppg. OSU covered last seven games as underdog of 7+ points; they've given up 30.8 ppg this year, losing to unbeatens Boise/TCU by 9-13 pts Arizona had last week off after ugly 10-9 win over Cal-- Wildcats are 8-3 in last eleven games as a home favorite.

Underdog covered five of last six USC-Stanford games, with Trojans 4-0 in last four visits here, but USC was double digit fave in last eight series games. Cardinal crushed SC 55-21 LY (+10.5), running ball for 325 yds; they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as favorite. Both teams lost last week; Stanford is 10-8 vs spread after a loss, USC 12-5. This is second time since 2004 that Trojans are an underdog.

Rest of the Card
-- Wisconsin won last six games vs Minnesota, covered six of last eight series tilts. Gophers lost last six visits here (1-4 vs spread last five) with five of the six losses by 18+ points. Badgers play Ohio State next.
-- South Florida won, covered all five meetings with Syracuse, which lost its three visits here by average score of 35-13. Bulls are 9-6 as home fave since 2008, but also have ESPN game with West Virginia on Thursday.
-- Illinois lost its last four visits to Penn State by average score of 28-11, but covered three of the four; Illini is 9-3 in last dozen games as road dog. Penn State is 3-8 vs spread in last eleven games as home favorite.
-- Ohio State won last nine games vs Indiana (7-2 vs spread, covered last five); Hoosiers lost last four visits here by average score of 39-9. Indiana is 17-31 as road dog since 2000 (7-8 under Lynch).
-- Louisville won six of last seven games vs Memphis, with underdog 6-2 vs spread in series. Tigers are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as road dog. Cardinals are 3-7 in last ten games as home favorite.

-- Cincinnati won last four games vs rival Miami by average of 38-13, as Redhawks lost last three visits here, 45-20/24-10/45-26. Bearcats are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games.
-- Former Virginia coach Al Groh is Georgia Tech's DC; Cavaliers are 5-2 in last seven series games, with favorites 6-2 vs spread in last eight, 4-1 in last five played here. Tech is 15-22-1 as home favorite since '01.
-- Third straight road game for Temple squad that is 7-2 in last nine tries as a road underdog; Owls trailed 21-13 at half at Army last week, won 42-35 despite giving up 235 rushing yards.
-- Navy beat Wake Forest 13-10/24-17 after losing previous five games; dogs are 4-2 vs spread in series. Navy lost rivalry game at Air Force last week. Deacons lost last three games overall by average score of 41-14.
-- West Virginia is 4-8 as home fave under Stewart; they've got Thursday night game with South Florida on deck. UNLV is 0-2 as road dog, losing 38-10 at Utah (+21), 30-7 at Idaho (+7).

-- Ball State is 7-2 in last nine games vs Western Michigan, winning last three by 5-23-4 points (favorite covered three of last four). Cardinals are 11-6 vs spread as home favorite since 2002.
-- Georgia lost its last four games, but did score 27 points wtih Green in lineup for first time last week; Dawgs lost three of last four series games. Tennessee had brutal loss last week, is 7-2 in last nine as road dog.
-- Vanderbilt is just 5-13 as home favorite since 2000; they play Georgia next. Commodores beat Eastern Michigan 30-7 (-22) back in '07. EMU is 0-5 this season, giving up 155 points in its last three games.
-- Iowa State ran ball for 251 yards in 52-38 thrashing of Texas Tech last week; they're 11-9 as home underdog since 2005. Utah didn't play last week; they're 4-0, winning last three games by 28-42-53 points.
-- Missouri won last four games vs Colorado by average score of 44-10, covering last three; Buffs lost last three visits here 58-0/28-13/17-9, but they're 3-1 this season after upsetting Georgia 29-27 at home last week.

-- Virginia Tech won last three games, scoring 109 points after a hideous 0-2 start; they're 10-12-1 as home favorite since '06. Central Michigan is 3-0 as road underdog this year, losing road games by 3-5 points.
-- Road team won last four Bowling Green-Ohio games; Falcons are 13-5 in last 18 games as road underdog (2-1 in '10). Average total in Bowling Green games this year: 64.4. Ohio is 6-5 as home fave under Solich.
-- East Carolina-Southern Miss split last four games, after USM was 8-1 in previous nine meetings; favorites are 6-2 vs spread in last 8 meetings. Pirates lost three of last four visits here, losing by 18-41-17 points.
-- Air Force won last four games vs Colorado State, last three by 18+, as faves are 5-3 vs spread in last 8 meetings. Falcons are off rivalry win vs Navy, have San Diego State next- they're 9-4 as HF under Calhoun.
-- Akron is 11-2 in last 13 games vs Kent, winning five of last six played here; underdog is 5-2 SU (6-1 vs spread) in last seven meetings, but Zips are awful (0-4 vs I-A teams, losing by 26-37-15-35 points).

-- Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six TCU-Wyoming games; Frogs won last two meetings 45-10/54-7. Wyoming covered four of its last five games as underdog, posting upset win at Toledo last week.
-- Tulane scored 17-13-17 points in last three games vs Army; Wave did have good win last week, upsetting Rutgers in Garden State. Cadets lost four of last six visits here; they're 6-4 in last 10 tries as road dog.
-- Lousiana Tech won four of last five games vs Utah State, winning last two played here, 45-38/48-35; favorites are 4-1 vs spread in series. Tech is 0-4 vs I-A foes after getting whacked 41-21 at Hawai'i last week.
-- Nevada won seven of last eight games vs San Jose, winning 62-7/41-17 last two years; Spartans lost last four visits here by average of 21 points. Favorites covered San Jose's last five visits to Nevada.
-- BYU is 1-4 for first time since 1973; they're 11-2 in last 13 games vs San Diego State, winning last four played here by 29-30-33-13 points, but Aztecs are much improved, scoring 106 points in last three games.

-- Oregon beat Washington State last three years with average score 56-9; Ducks are 6-2 in last eight visits here, but only one of their last five wins in Pullman was by more than seven points. Wazzu led 28-20 in second half at UCLA last week, an improvement, but they lost 42-28, giving up a ridiculous 438 rushing yards to the Bruins.
-- Kentucky is 1-5 vs spread in last six games as home dog; they won at Auburn 21-14 LY (+13). Auburn ran ball for 745 yards in its wins over Miss State-Clemson-South Carolina, all pretty good teams.
-- Favorite is 8-4-1 vs spread in last 13 Purdue-Northwestern games, as Boilers lost four of last six in series. Wildcats are 4-19 as home fave, just 2-10 under Fitzgerald. Purdue is 2-2-1 as road dog under Hope.
-- Houston won last three games vs Mississippi State despite being dog in all three games, but Cougars are down to #3 QB- they beat Miss State 31-24 LY. Miss State is 2-5 vs spread in last seven non-conference tilts; they've got SEC game with Florida next week.
-- New Mexico/New Mexico State are both horrible; Lobos won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here-- underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games. Both teams are winless, losing by an average of over 30 points a game this season.

-- Boise State has to keep winning big to avoid fall in poll; keep in mind Toledo lost 41-2 at home to Arizona, so this score will be measured vs that one. Broncos are 38-18 as a home favorite since 2000.
-- Underdog covered last six Tulsa-SMU games; Mustangs (+14) upset Tulsa LY. Hurricane lost five of last six visits here, with dogs covering three of last four. Tulsa allowed 51-65 points in its two '10 losses.
-- Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in last nine Rice-UTEP game, with Owls winning last four, by 1-5-8-6 points, but Rice is 1-4 this year, 3-2 vs the spread, with all four losses by 11+ points.
-- Favorite is 5-2 in last seven Hawai'i-Fresno games, with average total of 71.3. Warriors won three of last four visits here, but loss was a 70-14 thrashing in '04. Fresno is 3-10-1 as home favorite since 2006.

-- Arkansas State won last five games vs North Texas, the last three by 4-5-4 points (dogs 3-0 vs spread). ASU won last two visits here, 33-28 and 31-24. Three of last four UNT games were decided by 4 or less pts.
-- Florida International's last three halftime scores: 6-6 @ Texas A&M (+28)......14-21 at Maryland (+11)........10-13 at Pitt (+14). Now they move way down in class vs Western Kentucky squad that is 0-4, losing games by 39-35-17-12 points (1-3 vs spread).
-- Underdog covered last six FAU-ULM games, with five of six games decided by 4 or less points (last four decided by 3 or less). Owls won last two visits here, 29-28.21-19. UL-Monroe is 0-3 vs D-I opponents, giving up an average of 39 ppg.