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might add more later. Like wash, sf, detroit also but not sure if taking them yet. good luck!
3* Cleveland +3 over Cinci (possible upgrade to 4*)
This line is based solely on public perception. The Bengals were many peoples sleeper to come out of the AFC, while the Browns are the perennial bums of the NFL. But, the Brownies get their first W this week! The Bengals are simply not a good football team. They are 27th in rushing offense and 24th in passing offense. On the other side of the ball they rank 23rd versus the run and 11th versus the pass. The Bengals may be 2-1 but they got handed a gift against the Ravens and beat the Panters narrowly (who may be the worst team in the league). Don't let the browns 0-3 record scare you because they lost close game to Baltimore (2-1), K.C. (3-0), and T.B. (2-1). Statistically they are a better team than the Bengals. They are 9th in rushing offense and 15th in passing offense. Their run D is poor, but their pass D is 12th in the league. There is a strong trend against the Bengals: teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive wins are just 71-110-1 ATS as favorites the next week. My Super System has Cleveland as a 2.5 point favorite. Whether Wallace or Delhomme start I love the Browns. Let's go Brownies!!!
3* Oakland +3.5 over Houston (bodog)
I love Oakland in this battle. After Houston got their bubble popped last week and traveling to what would seem to be an inferior opponent they are staring an upset in the face. Oakland's D is tough and they are 8th versus the pass. Oakland is averaging 148 YPG (4th) rushing and in the air should be able to take advantage of the Texan's D that is 27th against the pass.
2* N.Y. Giants -3 (-130) over Chicago (bookmaker) (Possible upgrade)
The Bears average 3.1 YPR (28th). Cutler has been playing well, but has only thrown 2 picks thus far and based on his past performances this will not last and he will throw a couple on Sunday night. The Giants have played poorly the last couple weeks, but it is not due to lack of production. They are 12th in rushing and 8th in passing. It looks like they got blown out against the Titans, but they actually outgained them by 200 yards, but turnovers and penalties killed them. The Giants are -4 and the Bears are +3 in turnover ratio which is a big reason for their records, this won't last. G-MEN!
2* Baltimore +3 (-135) over Pittsburgh (bought half on bookmaker)
Turnovers are 85% independent in the NFL, and the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 90% of the time. In other words, turnovers are luck and probably won't continue. The Steelers are +6 (first in the league) in turnover ratio and the Ravens are -6 (last in the league). The is a big part of the reason Pitt is 3-0, and it won't continue. The Steelers D is for real, but their offense is mediocre. The Raven's run D will shut down Mendenhall and force Batch to pass and this won't happen; Baltimore's allowing only 8 yards/pass (1st in league). I see Baltimore covering and probably winning in a low scoring battle.
1* Buffalo +6 over N.Y. Jets
The Jets are still overrated and in a poor spot this week. They are off two wins SU and ATS against division opponents. Now they travel to a inferior opponent and are due for an upset. Fitzpatrick had a good game last week versus the Pat's and should do pretty well against a Jets D that is 30th in pass D and without Revis. The Jets are 26th in pass offense against a Bills D that allows 10.5 YPP. The Bills are off two road games and are coming home in prime position to get the cover here.
3* Cleveland +3 over Cinci (possible upgrade to 4*)
This line is based solely on public perception. The Bengals were many peoples sleeper to come out of the AFC, while the Browns are the perennial bums of the NFL. But, the Brownies get their first W this week! The Bengals are simply not a good football team. They are 27th in rushing offense and 24th in passing offense. On the other side of the ball they rank 23rd versus the run and 11th versus the pass. The Bengals may be 2-1 but they got handed a gift against the Ravens and beat the Panters narrowly (who may be the worst team in the league). Don't let the browns 0-3 record scare you because they lost close game to Baltimore (2-1), K.C. (3-0), and T.B. (2-1). Statistically they are a better team than the Bengals. They are 9th in rushing offense and 15th in passing offense. Their run D is poor, but their pass D is 12th in the league. There is a strong trend against the Bengals: teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive wins are just 71-110-1 ATS as favorites the next week. My Super System has Cleveland as a 2.5 point favorite. Whether Wallace or Delhomme start I love the Browns. Let's go Brownies!!!
3* Oakland +3.5 over Houston (bodog)
I love Oakland in this battle. After Houston got their bubble popped last week and traveling to what would seem to be an inferior opponent they are staring an upset in the face. Oakland's D is tough and they are 8th versus the pass. Oakland is averaging 148 YPG (4th) rushing and in the air should be able to take advantage of the Texan's D that is 27th against the pass.
2* N.Y. Giants -3 (-130) over Chicago (bookmaker) (Possible upgrade)
The Bears average 3.1 YPR (28th). Cutler has been playing well, but has only thrown 2 picks thus far and based on his past performances this will not last and he will throw a couple on Sunday night. The Giants have played poorly the last couple weeks, but it is not due to lack of production. They are 12th in rushing and 8th in passing. It looks like they got blown out against the Titans, but they actually outgained them by 200 yards, but turnovers and penalties killed them. The Giants are -4 and the Bears are +3 in turnover ratio which is a big reason for their records, this won't last. G-MEN!
2* Baltimore +3 (-135) over Pittsburgh (bought half on bookmaker)
Turnovers are 85% independent in the NFL, and the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 90% of the time. In other words, turnovers are luck and probably won't continue. The Steelers are +6 (first in the league) in turnover ratio and the Ravens are -6 (last in the league). The is a big part of the reason Pitt is 3-0, and it won't continue. The Steelers D is for real, but their offense is mediocre. The Raven's run D will shut down Mendenhall and force Batch to pass and this won't happen; Baltimore's allowing only 8 yards/pass (1st in league). I see Baltimore covering and probably winning in a low scoring battle.
1* Buffalo +6 over N.Y. Jets
The Jets are still overrated and in a poor spot this week. They are off two wins SU and ATS against division opponents. Now they travel to a inferior opponent and are due for an upset. Fitzpatrick had a good game last week versus the Pat's and should do pretty well against a Jets D that is 30th in pass D and without Revis. The Jets are 26th in pass offense against a Bills D that allows 10.5 YPP. The Bills are off two road games and are coming home in prime position to get the cover here.
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