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**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:42 PM

Underdogs are intriguing plays in NL West action

The race for the NL West became a two-team affair late Tuesday night when the Rockies were eliminated from postseason contention, leaving the Padres and Giants to fight for the division title. San Francisco enters Wednesday with a two-game lead on San Diego and hopes to widen the gap when it hosts the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, San Diego continues its four-game series with the Cubs at Petco.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (64-93)
at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (89-68)

First pitch: 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -150, Arizona +140 Total: 7.5

A pair of red-hot pitchers meet in San Francisco Wednesday night when Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.76 ERA) goes up against Tim Lincecum (15-10, 3.51). Kennedy has a 1.12 ERA over his past three starts and has given up one run or less in five of his past six starts. The Arizona bullpen hasn’t been kind to Kennedy, as the Diamondbacks have lost three of his past four outings despite Kennedy’s strong starts. One such instance was September 6 against the Giants, where Kennedy went eight shutout innings, only to see San Francisco win the game 2-0 in 11 innings. Kennedy has been impressive against the Giants over his career, going 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in four starts.

Linecum enters Wednesday off a terrific outing in Colorado where he went eight innings, giving up one run on two hits while striking out nine. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA over his past three starts. After struggling in August, Lincecum has shined in September, winning four of his five starts without allowing more than three runs in any of those outings. He’s 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Even though the Diamondbacks bullpen is shaky, The FoxSheets like Arizona:

Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ARIZONA) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (42-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (70%, +32.6 units. Rating = 4*).

CHICAGO CUBS (72-85)
at SAN DIEGO PADRES (87-70)

First pitch: 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -150, Chicago +140 Total: 6.5

The Padres look to pick up some ground on the Giants before heading to San Francisco to close out the year in what should be the biggest matchup of the weekend. First, they hope Chris Young (1-0, 1.20 ERA) can take care of the Cubs. Young is making his third start since coming off the disabled list earlier this month. He’s been effective in his two outings, combining to go nine innings, while giving up two runs on six hits. The Padres have won both those games, against Cincinnati and St. Louis.

Young will be opposed by Randy Wells (8-13. 4.28 ERA) Wells has pitched well lately, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his past three starts. His most recent effort was especially impressive, throwing 7.2 innings of shutout ball and picking up a win in San Francisco. Wells was on the wrong end of a 1-0 game against San Diego in August where he gave up one run on three hits over seven innings, but still took the loss.

The FoxSheets see some value in Chicago on Wednesday:

Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. (33-14 since 1997.) (70.2%, +32.1 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:45 PM

MLB Odds: Battle of the Sox continues

The Boston Red Sox are showing no signs of throwing in the towel as they continue their series at the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday night. This is the third game of a four-game set.

The Red Sox (87-69) won the first game 6-1 on Monday and are 4-1 in their last five games. The Tuesday night result is still pending and Boston will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Yankees win, but there’s plenty of motivation left either way.

Third baseman Adrian Beltre and catcher Victor Martinez are impending free agents and every home run and RBI means more money. Jon Lester will go for his 20th win Thursday night and Clay Buchholz could win the AL ERA title on Saturday.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Wednesday’s starter Josh Beckett (6-5, 5.77 ERA) can’t have this season end soon enough. He signed a big contract extension before the year and hasn’t come close to meeting expectations.

The 30-year-old righty had a 7.29 ERA before going on the DL for two months with a back injury. He returned after the All-Star break and has gone 5-4 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 starts.

Beckett got a win at the Yankees last Friday even after allowing four home runs. The Bronx Bombers have owned him this season with a 10.04 ERA in five starts.

Beckett has pitched well against weaker hitting teams like Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland and Kansas City (combined 2.87 ERA). His one start versus the White Sox was Sept. 5 at home (one earned run over 6 1/3 innings). He’s 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA lifetime at Chicago.

The White Sox (83-73) saw their playoff hopes end with a 2-12 stretch earlier this month. They did have a four-game winning streak before the Monday loss to Boston, thanks to solid starting pitching.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Chicago’s bats have been very silent in September at 3.71 runs per game (12th in the AL). That wasn’t supposed to happen with Manny Ramirez acquired from the Dodgers. However, he’s hit just one homer in 22 games and has a pedestrian OPS of .728.

Ramirez has missed a couple of games in the past week (illness, day off), but he always likes to play against his old team. Outfielder Alex Rios is questionable for the rest of this series (knee bruise).

Freddy Garcia (11-6, 4.74 ERA) will be the Wednesday starter for Chicago. He hurt his back on Sept. 7 versus Detroit and didn’t pitch again until last Friday. He allowed one earned run over six innings at the Angels, getting a no-decision.

The 34-year-old righty was 9-3 with a 4.36 ERA before the All-Star Game. Chicago went 12-4. He’s 2-3 with a 5.43 ERA after the break. Chicago has gone 5-6. The ‘over’ is 10-1 in his last 11 starts.

Garcia has not faced the Red Sox this year. He’s 7-2 with a 4.53 ERA lifetime against them (1-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts last year).

These teams didn’t meet this year until early September, with Chicago sweeping three at Fenway. This is the first series in Chicago. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the teams.

Boston lost stars Dustin Pedroia (foot), Kevin Youkilis (thumb) and Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) for the year, but has hungry players like Jed Lowrie and Ryan Kalish filling in nicely.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Umpire Marvin Hudson will call balls and strikes. The home team is 8-2 in his last 10 games behind home plate.

First pitch on Wednesday night is 5:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should clear and in the 60s.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:46 PM

MLB Betting: Phillies end set at Nationals

Philadelphia and Washington D.C. and be broken down to ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ when discussing their respective MLB baseball teams. It is the best of times and the worst of times between these two franchises separated by 27 games in the National League East standings.

The Phillies have just locked up the division for the fourth consecutive season, and will now try to advance to the World Series for the third year in a row. Meanwhile the Nationals have a stranglehold on the NL East basement once again, finishing in last place for the third consecutive season.

Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best's Real-Time Odds opened

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

Philadelphia as a 123 road favorite over Washington, with the total set at nine ‘over’ (minus 120). Wednesday’s NL East matchup is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. ET from Nationals Park.
Philadelphia right-hander Joe Blanton (8-6, 4.94 ERA) improved to 4-0 with a 3.36 ERA his last 10 starts after knocking off New York Friday as 145 home ‘chalk,’ 3-2. The former Kentucky Wildcat was reached for both runs on six hits (one home run) with a walk and six strikeouts over seven innings and 74 pitches.

The combined five runs failed to eclipse the 8 ½-run closing total, ending a string of four straight ‘over’ outings for the 29-year-old.

Blanton has faced the Nationals twice this season, helping Philadelphia split those affairs. The seven-year veteran went a combined 12 innings, allowing eight runs on 16 hits (two home runs) with two walks and 16 strikeouts. The Phillies prevailed Sept. 19 as a 198 home favorite, 7-6, while losing July 31 as 127 road ‘chalk,’ 7-5. The ‘over’ cashed in both contests, and is 5-1 his last six starts versus Washington.

Philadelphia, 40-33 away from home, follows this series with a season-ending three-game series at NL East rival Atlanta. The Phillies are 19-7 their past 26 road games, and 46-17 their previous 63 outings overall.

Washington hurler Ross Detwiler (1-2, 2.52 ERA) has been dealing with an injured right hip all year, putting him on the disabled list at two different times during the season. This start amounts to an audition for next year’s rotation.

Top MLB Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The southpaw had been relegated to bullpen duty since coming back from Triple-A until Thursday’s triumph over Houston as a 117 home favorite, 7-2. The Missouri State product went six innings, surrendering both runs on seven hits with two walks and no strikeouts on 79 pitches. The combined nine runs slithered ‘over’ the 8 ½-run closing total.

Detwiler beat the Phillies and Blanton during that July 31 encounter, tossing 5 1/3 innings while yielding just one run on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts on 97 pitches. The ‘under’ is now 2-1 during his three career starts versus Philadelphia.

Washington, 40-39 at Nationals Park, concludes its home schedule with this contest before finishing the season with three games at New York. The Nationals have seen the ‘over’ go 13-3 the last 16 meetings with the Phillies.

Wednesday’s home-plate umpire will be Ed Hickox, who has seen the ‘under’ go 17-16 during his 33 games behind the dish. There has been an average of 9.5 runs per game in those contests, with 6.3 walks and 13.7 strikeouts.

Wednesday’s forecast for Washington D.C. calls for evening showers, with a high of 75 degrees and a low of 64.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 05:47 PM

MLB Betting Odds: Rays host O's in home finale

The Tampa Bay Rays' champagne dreams were put on ice Monday by the Baltimore Orioles.

The Rays came out flatter than any bubbly could ever be and lost to the last-place Birds, 4-0. Their magic number for clinching a playoff berth remained at one. The good news is Tampa Bay maintained its half-game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East when the defending champs lost at Toronto.

The Rays sent David Price to the mound Tuesday in Game 2 of the series, but if their ace is unable to get the job done against the pesky O’s, the spotlight will be on Jeff Niemann (11-7, 4.49) in Wednesday’s regular-season home finale.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

The 6-foot-8 right-hander’s stock has taken a dip over the second half of the season, and how he fares against Baltimore could have a bearing on what his role will be come playoff time.

Niemann wasn’t sharp last Friday against Seattle at home, but he had his best outing since coming off the disabled list on Aug. 25, yielding three runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Baltimore has given the Rays trouble at times, taking two out of three in the teams’ last series and scoring 16 runs in the two wins.

Tampa Bay has taken 10 of 16 from Baltimore, but the Orioles, even after getting swept at Toronto over the weekend, are 29-21 overall and 4-3 against the Rays since Buck Showalter took over as manager.

Kevin Millwood will likely be making his last start in a Baltimore uniform in the series finale.

Millwood is showing what it looks like when a mediocre pitcher from another division has to face the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox on a regular basis. The veteran right-hander gave up six runs on seven hits in five innings against Boston last Wednesday.

In two starts against Tampa Bay this year Millwood is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and the Rays have tattooed him at a .356 clip. He is 2-9 on the highway with a 5.52 ERA and a .315 batting average against.

The Rays are 5-2 in Niemann’s last seven starts at home and 7-2 in his last nine appearances against division foes. However, they are 1-5 in his past six outings overall.

Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

Baltimore is 3-16 on the road versus winning teams with Millwood on the mound and the O’s have flunked the right-hander’s last seven division tests.

The baseball betting ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the past 10 series tussles at the Trop.

The Birds have flown ‘under’ in nine of 10 on field turf and in 11 of 16 versus division tenants. Tampa Bay has ducked below the number at a 12-3-1 clip recently in St. Pete.

Angel Hernandez will be calling the balls and strikes Wednesday. The ‘under’ is 13-3-1 in his last 17 assignment behind the plate, but the Rays have zipped ‘over’ the last eight times he officiated against them.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-29-2010, 06:11 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Athletics at Angels – The Athletics are 0-6 since August 10, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 0-5 since July 30, 2010 on the road after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $685 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 29, 2010 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $660.

Marlins at Braves – The Braves are 0-5 since June 27, 2010 as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $780 when playing against.

Pirates at Cardinals – The Pirates are 0-7 since July 19, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $710 when playing against. The Cardinals are 6-0 since August 04, 2010 after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $695

Diamondbacks at Giants – The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since May 26, 2010 as a road 140+ dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Giants are 9-0 since May 29, 2010 at home after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $910.

Phillies at Nationals – The Phillies are 9-0 since July 22, 2010 on the road and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $975.

Cubs at Padres – The Cubs are 6-0 since July 06, 2010 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $665.

Mariners at Rangers – The Mariners are 0-10 since April 09, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

Orioles at Rays – The Orioles are 0-9 since April 17, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Astros at Reds – The Astros are 0-7 since May 01, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $735 when playing against. The Reds are 8-0 since April 29, 2010 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start for a net profit of $910.

Dodgers at Rockies – The Dodgers are 0-6 since April 17, 2010 after allowing 6+ runs win for a net profit of $660 when playing against. The Rockies are 7-0 since April 11, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $770.

Twins at Royals - The Twins are 5-0 since July 18, 2010 as a dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $620.

Red Sox at White Sox – The White Sox are 7-0 since June 16, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $750.

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