The Bum's NFL News Notes+ My Best Bets NFL Week 4 (10/3 - 10/4) !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Betting: Unbeaten Bears visit Giants

No coach was on a hotter seat than Chicago’s Lovie Smith before the season.

But entering Week 4 it’s the New York Giants’ Tom Coughlin who is firmly planted on the hot seat as his 1-2 team hosts the Bears Sunday night with NBC televising at 5:20 p.m. (PT).

Chicago is the lone unbeaten team in the NFC at 3-0. That doesn’t resonate with the NFL betting marketplace, which has pushed the Giants up to 3 ½-point favorites. The ‘over/under’ is 44.

Coughlin is a disciplinarian, but his Giants have lacked discipline this season turning the ball over 10 times, tied for the second-most in the league, and having the eighth-highest amount of penalty yards.

Eli Manning has been picked off six times, tied for the NFL-lead with Brett Favre. Going back to last season, the Giants are 4-10. They are 3-11 ATS during their last 14 games.

Yet the Giants are more than a field goal home favorite.

Apparently those wagering early believe this matchup sets up well for New York with the Giants close to a crucial spot already and the Bears traveling on a short week following their 20-17 last-second victory as three-point home underdogs to Green Bay this past Monday night. The combined 37 points went ‘under’ the 45 ½-point total.

Top NFL Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The Giants are looking to avoid their worst start since 1997. They’ve opened 4-0 during the past two years.

Chicago is off to its best start since 2006 the season it went to the Super Bowl.

The Bears have some vulnerable areas, particularly in their offensive line and at the safety spots. But they also have been getting good play from mainstays Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Devin Hester, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.

Cutler has thrown for 870 yards, fifth-most in the NFL season, while operating new offensive coordinator’s Mike Martz’s downfield passing attack. Cutler threw a league-high 26 interceptions last year, but has a six-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.

Forte has three touchdowns and is playing better than he did as a rookie two seasons ago. Hester is making big plays at wide receiver and on special teams. His 62-yard punt return touchdown helped turn around the Packer game.

Hester returned a missed field goal 108 yards for a touchdown in a 38-20 Chicago victory when the Bears last visited the Giants in 2006.

Stopping Hester is a huge concern for Coughlin. The Giants have not played well on special teams. Rookie punter Matt Dodge has just a 33-yard net average on eight punts.

Part of the Giants’ problem has been they no longer have dominant NFL offensive and defensive lines. They rank 26th in run defense and their offensive line has been battling injuries with center Shaun O’Hara questionable after missing last week with injuries to his ankle and Achilles’ tendon.

New York was whipped last Sunday by Tennessee, 29-10, as three-point home favorites. The combined 39 points went ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.

The Giants have rushed for more than 100 yards in each game, thanks largely to Ahmad Bradshaw. The Bears, though, rank No. 1 versus the run giving up less than 40 yards on the ground per game. Brandon Jacobs has become a non-factor for New York carrying the ball just four times during the past two weeks.

The Bears haven’t had a good recent road history, failing to cover in eight of their last 11 away matchups. They are 1-8-1 ATS as road underdogs. The Giants, however, are just 2-7 ATS the past nine times they’ve been ‘chalk.’ They are 1-8 ATS versus teams with a winning mark.

Top NFL Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of New York’s last eight games. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of Chicago’s past 11 NFL football games.

The teams last met in 2007 with the Giants winning, 21-16, as 1 ½-point road underdogs.

The early weather forecast is for a clear night with a light wind and temperatures in the low 60s.

[StarDust Bum]

Here is the rest of my plays for the day. Upgrades maybe done with a few...depends on how that line moves.

Sunday, October 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +6 500
Buffalo - Over 36.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500
Pittsburgh - Over 34 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +1.5 500
St. Louis -

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco +6.5 500
Atlanta - Under 42.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
Cleveland - Under 37 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver +6.5 500
Tennessee - Under 43.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -13 500
New Orleans - Over 44.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +14 500
Green Bay - Under 45.5 500

Houston - 4:05 PM ET Houston -3 500
Oakland - Over 43 500

Indianapolis - 4:05 PM ET Jacksonville +7 500
Jacksonville - Over 46 500

Washington - 4:15 PM ET Washington +5.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 43 500

Arizona - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -9 500
San Diego - Under 46 500

[Kaptain]

gl today BUM....love the SD play......get em in for us....as always, have a good day

[Udog]

I'm really liking the San Diego play, too. Thanks, Bum! Good luck today!

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks Kapt and UDOG........lets kick some butt today......

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Magic:


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/03/10 15-8-0 65.90% +3100 Detail
Totals 15-8-0 65.90% +3100

Sunday, October 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3.5 500 *****
N.Y. Giants - Over 44 500 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Last Week with Pittsburg and this weeks PODS runs to now a outstanding 6 - 1 for the year....

I have 6 BIG PLAYS TODAY........I'll list them as my POD'S

Sunday, October 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Over 36.5 500
Buffalo -

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500 ( AFC UPSET ) WINNER
Pittsburgh -

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco +6.5 500
Atlanta -

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
Cleveland -

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver +6.5 500 ( AFC DOG OF THE DAY ) WINNER
Tennessee -

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Over 44.5 500 ( NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY ) LOSER
New Orleans -

Houston - 4:05 PM ET Houston -3 500 ( AFC BLOW OUT OF THE DAY ) WINNER
Oakland -

Indianapolis - 4:05 PM ET Over 46 500
Jacksonville -

Washington - 4:15 PM ET Washington +5.5 500 ( NFC DOG OF THE DAY ) WINNER
Philadelphia -

Arizona - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -9 500 ( INTERCONFERENCE BLOWOUT ) WINNER
San Diego -

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots favored by 1 at Miami

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1)
at MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT, Line: New England -1, Total: 47.5

Are the Pats no longer the beasts of the AFC East? Monday night will go a long way toward answering that. The Dolphins have covered in four of their past five meetings with the Pats, including a 22-21 win in Miami last December. The Dolphins got aggressive with the passing game last week, letting Chad Henne really utilize Brandon Marshall for the first time as the pair connected on 10 catches for 166 yards giving Henne a career-high 363 yards. In that December win over New England, Henne threw for 335 yards and two TD sans Marshall, and the Pats’ secondary is even weaker this year. Marshall caught eight passes for 64 yards and two scores last year against the Patriots when he was with Denver.

The Patriots can also move the football with Tom Brady and Company. Brady has thrown for 758 yards, eight TD and just two INT this year. In his career against Miami, Brady is 10-6 with 3,131 passing yards, 28 TD and 16 INT, including 352 yards, two TD and two INT in last year’s loss at Miami. Wes Welker gained 167 of those yards to give him 425 yards on 27 catches in the past three meetings in Miami. The New England defense has played poorly this year, ranking 27th in the NFL in total defense with 379 YPG allowed.

There isn’t too much injury news being reported to significant players on both teams. The Patriots will be without RB Fred Taylor (toe) and OL Nick Kaczur (back). Miami ILB Channing Crowder is doubtful (groin) and DE Jared Odrick (leg) is definitely out.

The highest-rated FoxSheets trend favors New England.

Play On - Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night.(49-18 since 1983.) (73.1%, +29.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets also like the Under on Monday night.

MIAMI is 46-21 UNDER (+22.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 18.5, OPPONENT 20.6 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Patriots at Dolphins

The Week 4 NFL card wraps up in South Florida on Monday night as a pair of AFC East rivals meets when the Dolphins host the Patriots. Both Miami and New England sit at 2-1, while each team has split a pair of games against divisional foes. The big question going into this contest is if the Dolphins can rebound from a tough home defeat against the Jets last Sunday night.

Miami fell behind New York, 14-0 early on as it looked like the Jets were easily going to avenge a pair of losses to the Dolphins last season. Tony Sparano's club rallied with 17 straight points, but a 67-yard touchdown grab by Braylon Edwards put the Jets back out in front for good. The Jets made a final stand in the waning seconds as New York won as short road underdogs, 31-23. The game easily went 'over' for the third straight time in this series, while it was the first 'over' for the Dolphins after a pair of 'unders' the first two weeks.

The Patriots rebounded from a second-half meltdown to the Jets in Week 2 by knocking off the Bills in a 38-30 shootout victory last week. New England's offense racked up 445 yards, led by Tom Brady's 252 yards through the air and three touchdown passes. The Pats' defense may be in question after allowing 30 points to a Bills' team that scored just 31 points combined in losses to the Dolphins, Packers, and Jets. The shoddy New England defense has benefited 'over' backers, hitting in all three Patriots' games.

The Dolphins' offense was a nice surprise against the Jets (436 yards) following just 29 points in the first two victories. Miami's defense allowed 402 yards, including three touchdown passes from Mark Sanchez. The offense has cashed in just one touchdown in the second half this season, which should be a huge concern against New England.

The running game for Miami ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but has slipped to 16th through the first three games of this season, averaging 112 yards/game. Both these teams are in the bottom half of the league stopping the run, with each club allowing a shade below 119 yards/game on the ground.

Miami and New England split two meetings last season, with the home team winning each time. The Patriots knocked off the Dolphins in Foxboro last November, 27-17, as Miami covered as 10 ½-point underdogs. Miami grabbed a 17-16 lead with five minutes remaining in the third quarter, but Randy Moss' 71-yard touchdown catch two minutes later gave New England the lead. A late field goal gave the Patriots a 10-point advantage as some backers 'pushed,' while others failed to cash on the 'hook.'

The Dolphins got revenge when the teams met in South Florida a month later, as Miami rallied for a 22-21 victory as 4 ½-point 'dogs. Miami overcame a pair of double-digit deficits, capped off by Dan Carpenter's 41-yard field goal in the final minute to give the Dolphins the one-point win. The Miami defense does need to shape up after allowing over 430 yards in each of the last three matchups with New England.

Under Sparano, the Dolphins have had plenty of success against divisional foes, owning a 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS record. That ledger did take a hit last week with the loss to the Jets, but it came as a favorite, as Miami is 6-2 ATS as an underdog since 2008 against AFC East rivals. On the flip side, the Dolphins are just 3-6 ATS when receiving points at home in the Sparano era.

The Patriots have not been a solid play when laying points on the highway, compiling a 2-4 ATS mark since the start of last season. In true road contests, that number falls to 1-4 ATS, with the Patriots beating down the Bucs last October in London. New England has dominated on the road inside the division, going 13-3 ATS since 2005, but two of the losses have come at Miami.

The Dolphins played a pair of home Monday night contests last season, beating the Jets and losing to the Colts. Each game was decided in the final two minutes, as Miami went 'over' in each contest. The Patriots failed to cover in two Monday nighters in 2009, edging the Bills by one as double-digit favorites, while getting blasted at New Orleans, 38-17.

New England is listed as a one-point favorite in most spots, as that number hasn't moved much this week. The total is set at 47 ½ at most books after opening at 46 last Sunday night. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- The Niners put up another strong effort as an underdog, but failed to come through in a 16-14 loss to the Falcons. San Francisco sits at 0-4, as the Niners host the Eagles next Sunday night. The only good sign for Mike Singletary's team is they have only one division loss in the mediocre NFC West.

-- Underdogs were the play on Sunday afternoon, cashing in seven of the eight early games. The only favorite that won and covered was the Jets, who easily crushed the Bills, 38-14. Two more double-digit 'dogs came through when the Panthers and Lions each lost close contests on the road, but both clubs remain winless at 0-4.

-- The Steelers dropped a tough one to the Ravens, 17-14, but Pittsburgh did finish 3-1 without Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben returns from his suspension in two weeks as the Steelers head into the bye, but it looks like Pittsburgh and Baltimore will battle it until the end in the AFC North after Cincinnati slipped up in a road loss at Cleveland.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharps and Books do well

It was a dog day afternoon in the Sunday early NFL games that saw seven of the first eight games go barking with four of the ‘dogs winning outright. Almost as one sided as the early games were for the dogs, three of the four afternoon games went to the favorites. After it was all tallied, week four once again went to the sports books with the small players left gasping for air, and money.

The sharp players did well Sunday with Cleveland and Jacksonville being their featured games, but forget about those guys, they‘ll always be fine. I’m worried about the little guy, the square or small player who bets $100 a week that keeps having a hard time of it and can’t find his day in the sun yet.

The games aren’t supposed to be this cruel to players. It’s supposed to be fun; we win some and you lose some, and in the process we all have a good time. But how many times can a player keep getting up. Isn’t there a three knock-down rule of sorts within the betting community, or three strikes and you’re out. After four weeks of action nobody knows what team to trust anymore and picking winners is tougher than ever.

Everyone used to have the good old reliable Colts and Peyton Manning as a sound investment, but so far this season he’s let the public down twice, including Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars. If you can’t trust Manning against the Jaguars -- who got drilled successive weeks by the Chargers and Eagles -- who can you trust.

How about Seneca Wallace? Everyone should be able to count on him to do nothing and have a bad game with a pick-six gift wrapped, and you’re only laying 2-points with the Bengals, should be easy, right? The 49ers are 0-3 and they are going East -- always a bad thing for West Coast teams going East -- and the Falcons are only laying 7-points, fresh off a big win at New Orleans.

But no, Jacksonville plays an amazing game and the Bengals get outplayed by the Browns. Both the 49ers and Broncos traveled East and covered their games dispelling all the traditional wisdom of the past, and further putting a wrinkle into everyone‘s strategy for the weeks to come.

Bettors can’t even rely on the big favorites anymore. The two double-digit favorites almost lost straight up last week making double-digits favorites 1-4 over the last two weeks. Where is the justice in that? Should the bettors start changing their ways and betting into the perceived awful teams. Nah, that’s no fun for folks.

People want to win bets by crushing their opponents. They want to watch 34-7 scores and ease into to wins with no sweat and it‘s much easier to get there by betting teams favored by 10 points or more.

By the way things are going with small bettors consistently losing their allowance, they are going to have to change, and will. What’s sad, though, is that as soon as the bettor changes their philosophy and starts playing the underdogs, the will favorites emerge, and then the books and bettors will both be in the middle of the reverse betting world where big favorites are covering and the book still wins.

From a bookmakers point of view, these type of starts just don’t happen and it is somewhat of a gift from all the sleepless night endured last season where nothing could be done to stop the favorites and bad teams. This year’s NFL teams are more balanced than ever with no real correlation to follow, that is other than just betting every underdog. Through four weeks, the underdogs are 35-21-3 against the spread going into Sunday night’s game.

The Chargers and Texans covering ended up being losses for the books, but it wasn’t as big of a loss as it could have been had the Colts covered. The Colts losing demolished just about everyone’s get-back three-team parlay in the late games. Overall, off the board parlays, parlay cards, teasers and straight bets were winners for most books at days end. That’s pretty much a clean sweep of all categories to go along with a clean sweep of all four weeks.

Week 5 doesn’t have any double-digit favorites and only has three games at minus-7 or higher. You’ll be looking at six home ‘dogs with a West Coast team traveling east and an East Coast club heading west for the late Sunday night game.

It doesn’t get any easier this week. My best advice would be to stay the course because everything does cycle around. Trust the numbers and the ratings of teams who are supposed to be better. These are the truest lines of any sport in the world and with all the underdogs covering lately, there is soon to be positions where you are getting lots of value on the favorites.

Give it another week or two before altering your own strategy too much based on what has occurred the first four weeks. The tide will turn, it always does is pro football betting.

Whisenhunt Not So Wise

Not to say that things would have been different had the whole Matt Leinart saga not transpired, but it had to cross Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s mind watching Derek Anderson look so bad again. After three games and a quarter and a half of action in Sunday’s game at San Diego, Whisenhunt made the switch to his backup, rookie Max Hall. How nice it might have been to give the ball to Leinart in that spot. Moving forward, I believe the coach will be regretting the entire situation.

Eagle Sandwiched

Before we start getting down on Kevin Kolb for not doing much of anything when Michael Vick went down, let’s remember that Vick was already down 14-0 to Washington before he got crushed from both sides by Redskins tacklers. Vick will be out for this week’s game, but with a week of work running the first string Kolb should be in good shape for their game against the 49ers. Look for a good game out of Kolb this week and look for the 49ers to start calling on replacements for Mike Singletary if the 49ers go 0-5.

Broncos Frequent Flier Miles

Nice scheduling by the league in back-to-back weeks for Denver. They traveled to Nashville for Sunday’s game, go home to practice and then travel back east to Baltimore. Had Denver lost last week to the Titans, I might think was a good spot for the Broncos, but since they won, it looks real good for the Ravens, even though they are beat up a little from their physical game at Pittsburgh. The Broncos had a similar situation last year when they traveled to Baltimore and Washington D.C. within three weeks and lost them both. Ravens 30, Broncos 14

Hilton Early NFL lines

For anyone looking to get a pure NFL line before the market takes over, check out the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book on Sunday’s at 4:30 p.m. PDT. They offer all of the next week’s action at numbers that are based solely on the staff’s ratings. The rest of the world comes out a few hours later, but during that window you can get a good idea who some of the sharper players like by the line moves.

The Hilton also offers lines two weeks in advance for those that have a good opinion of what may happen from one week to the next. This week they’ll have week six lines posted Tuesday morning and you’ll have until they close Saturday night to bet those games. It’s a great opportunity for folks who are out of town that would like action for the next week while back at home.

M Resort Fantasy Football In-Game Wagering

Who out there has played the NTN football game at places like Buffalo Wild Wings during games and had hoped that that concept could be incorporated into a casino game where instead of winning points and beating your friends, you got paid cash. Well, over at the M Resort they have In-Game Wagering on players as the game goes. Along with betting the plays, you can bet over-under yardage on the players as they go with wagers taken through the end of the third quarter. All the fantasy football experts can now make some real cash and put their expert mouths on the line with cash and be rewarded for their expertise. It’s a great concept that is yet another breakthrough in the long line of innovations the M Resort and Cantor has brought to Nevada.

Hilton NBA Pre-season Lines

Beginning this week, bettors will be able to get their fix in for the NBA by betting every pre-season game over at the Hilton. Their first line was posted on Monday for the Lakers and Timberwolves who are playing in London. On Tuesday the entire world gets to see Lebron James in action with his new teammates as Miami plays the Pistons.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday Night Football Odds: Patriots at Dolphins

Good handicapping requires you know when to the ride the trends, and when to go against the grain.

The Monday nighter (5:30 p.m. PT, ESPN) between the New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Sun Life Stadium offers a prime opportunity to do the latter.

The Patriots are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 road games, while the ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games at home. Looks a game ripe for the ‘under’ at the betting odds window, right? Not a chance.

One glance at the 46-point 'total' for the matchup, and I immediately leaned towards the ‘over.’ A further look into the state of both teams confirmed it’s the play to make.

New England is seventh in total offense (370.7 YPG) after three games, during which it’s gone 3-0 O/U, but more importantly, it leads the league in scoring at 30.0 points per game.

New England’s offense is nearly as dynamic as it was three years ago when it ran the table in the regular season, and it could very well offer more balance.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

That’s all fine and dandy, but what makes the Patriots such a solid ‘over’ wager at this stage of the season is its porous defense. New England has played average offensive teams at best in Cincinnati, New York, and Buffalo, but it ranks 27th in defense (379.3 YPG), 25th against the pass (260.3 YPG), and 28th in scoring defense (27.3 PPG).

Add up the most basic of scoring metrics – points for and points against – and you can see Pats’ games offer an average of 57.3 PPG. I don’t see the contest against the Dolphins playing ‘under’ 46.

I like New England’s chances of putting up points against Miami, not only because it has as good an offense as any team in the NFL, but due to the Dolphins’ difficulties against teams with productive tight ends.

Last season, Miami allowed opposing TEs to catch 68 balls for 993 yards with four touchdowns. Those are borderline Pro Bowl numbers.

This season, it’s even worse: Opposing tight ends are on pace to rack up over 1,200 yards and 11 scores against Miami, which like New England, counts Buffalo as one of its opponents so far this season.

In 2009, the Dolphins held the Ben Watson-Chris Baker combination to only five receptions and 55 yards in going 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS against the Patriots. Problem is, New England has upgraded at TE in a big way.

Rookies Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski have emerged as serious threats at Tom Brady’s disposal. Hernandez leads New England with 211 receiving yards this season, and is fourth league-wide among tight ends with 70.3 yards receiving per game.

Gronkowski has two touchdowns to sit one back of Randy Moss and Wes Welker for the team lead.

Top NCAAF Betting Odds at 5Dimes.

It’s not as if the Dolphins can focus on the duo, either. Moss and Welker need to be keyed on when playing the Pats, who had five receivers with 40+ yards in its 38-30 win over the Bills (plus 14) last week.

I also expect Miami to put up points on Monday night. Chad Henne went 26-of-44 for a career-high 365 yards with two TDs and an interception in the Dolphins’ 31-23 loss to the Jets (plus 1) last week, while Brandon Marshall hauled in 10 passes for 166 yards with a score.

Yes, Darrelle Revis was out, but this is New York’s defense we’re talking about. It’s easy to see Miami pushing 30 points – especially if Buffalo can do it on the road – at home against New England.

NFL oddsmakers opened the Patriots as 1-point favorites for the Monday nighter, and despite over 60% of bets on the spread coming in on them. New England was still available as 1-point favorites at most offshore sports books as of press time. 5Dimes.com had the game as a pick 'em, juicing the New England play at minus 120.

[Kaptain]

nice job this Sunday BUM....way to kick ass.....gl tonight....as always, thanks

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
10/03/10 16-9-0 64.00% +3050 Detail
Totals 16-9-0 64.00% +3050

Monday, October 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 8:30 PM ET Miami +1 500 *****
Miami - Over 48 500 *****



Good Luck.......Lets continue this roll baby........