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The Bum's NFL News Notes+ My Best Bets NFL Week 4 (10/3 - 10/4) !!

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  • The Bum's NFL News Notes+ My Best Bets NFL Week 4 (10/3 - 10/4) !!

    NFL Betting: Week 4 trends (Part 1)

    The Detroit Lions have had eight head coaches since 1991. The one thing they have in common, other than being fired, is losing on the road against the Green Bay Packers.

    The Packers have defeated the Lions 18 consecutive times in Wisconsin and are 13-4-1 ATS during that span. Detroit will try to break that streak Sunday when it travels to Lambeau Field.

    The Lions actually have been very profitable when getting 10 ½ points or more, going 15-7-2 ATS.

    Green Bay entered its Monday night game against the Bears in Chicago with an 8-1-1 ATS mark when playing on a grass field. The Packers also were 6-1-1 ATS in NFC North Division competition. The ‘over' was 23-10-1 when the Packers were playing an NFC rival.

    Some other noteworthy Week 4 trends and angles appear below.

    Top NFL betting action at 5Dimes.com

    The Cincinnati Bengals are road favorites again this week at Cleveland. The Bengals covered this past Sunday against Carolina, but are 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times they've been ‘chalk.' The Bengals are 2-7 ATS the last nine times they've been a road favorite.

    Cleveland has covered in seven of its last eight games versus a fellow AFC opponent. The ‘under' has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the Bengals have been favored.

    Denver hasn't had much luck lately when meeting an AFC opponent, failing to cover the last five times. The ‘over' has cashed in seven of the Broncos' last eight games.

    Spread-wise, something has to give when San Francisco plays at Atlanta. The 49ers are 13-7-4 ATS during their last 24 games, while the Falcons have covered in six of their last seven football betting matchups.

    The ‘under' is 6-1-1 in San Francisco's last eight games, while the ‘under' has cashed seven of the past nine times the Falcons have played.

    Baltimore took in a lot of money this past Sunday, but failed to cover an 11-point spread against the Browns. Nevertheless, the Ravens are still 13-7 ATS when laying points.

    The Ravens meet a Steelers team this week that has not been good in the favorite role, going 2-5-1 ATS despite cruising past Tampa Bay this past Sunday. Pittsburgh opened a one-point favorite against Baltimore.

    Top NFL betting action at 5Dimes.com

    Carolina is 6-3 ATS as an underdog following its 20-7 home loss to the Bengals. The Panthers are 11-6 ATS following a double-digit home defeat.

    The Panthers travel to the Louisiana Superdome to take on New Orleans. The Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 NFC contests and have covered only one of their past eight NFC South Division matchups. The ‘under' is 7-2 in the Panthers' last nine games.

    The New York Jets moved to 6-1 ATS in their last seven road encounters following their Sunday night victory versus Miami. The Jets have covered nine of their past 12 overall games.

    The Jets are at Buffalo this week. The Bills are 5-9 ATS during their last 14 AFC East matchups. The ‘over' is 9-3-1 in New York's last 13 games versus AFC squads.

    St. Louis ended its 14-game home losing streak last week by upsetting Washington. It was just the Rams' seventh win in the last three years, with two occurring against the Redskins.

    The Rams are still a miserable 10-21 ATS in their last 31 home games. St. Louis hosts Seattle on Sunday. The Seahawks opened as one-point favorites.

    The Seahawks have been terrible on the road, failing to cover in 10 of their last 12 away contests, including nine of their past 10.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    NFL Odds: Week 4 trends (Part 2)

    Tom Brady will visit his personal house of horrors Monday night when the New England Patriots travel to Miami to do battle against the Dolphins during the ESPN national telecast.

    Brady is just 3-5 both straight-up and against the football betting spread in eight lifetime games at Miami, with one of those wins occurring in overtime (2003). He has 17 touchdowns versus nine interceptions.

    Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

    Brady went 19-of-29 for 352 yards in Miami last December during a 22-21 loss as a 4 ½-point road favorite. However, he suffered two fourth-quarter interceptions as the Patriots blew a rare 21-10 second-half lead.

    New England dropped a 28-24 decision against the New York Jets as a three-point favorite in its lone road game this year. The Patriots were 2-6 SU and 2-4-2 ATS on the road last year. One of the wins (and covers) wasn't even a true road game because it was in London against Tampa Bay.

    Miami is coming off a 31-23 Sunday night home loss to the Jets as a one-point favorite. The Dolphins are 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three home games, with their last win occurring against New England.

    The ‘over' is 7-1-1 in Miami's last nine home games thanks to the defense holding just one opponent under 21 points.

    Trends and angles for other Week 4 late games are below.

    Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

    COLTS AT JAGUARS

    Indianapolis has won and ‘covered' the last two weeks after losing at Houston (34-24) as one-point favorites in Week 1. The Colts are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 road games. The ‘over' is 4-1 in Indianapolis' last five road games.

    Jacksonville is 1-6 both SU and ATS in its last seven games. The Jaguars are 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three games hosting Indianapolis.

    Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

    TEXANS AT RAIDERS

    Houston had a six-game winning streak (4-1-1 ATS) snapped at home to Dallas last week (27-13 as 1 ½-point favorites). The ‘under' is 6-1-1 in the Texans' last eight road games.

    Oakland is 7-18 SU and 8-17 ATS at home since 2007. Oakland is 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games versus Houston.

    REDSKINS AT EAGLES

    Washington is 1-11 SU (4-5-3 ATS) in its last 12 road games. The ‘over' is 10-3 in the Redskins last 13 games.

    Philadelphia won 28-3 at Jacksonville last week as two-point favorites. It was its first ‘cover' in six games. The Eagles are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home against Washington the last five games.

    Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

    CARDINALS AT CHARGERS

    Arizona is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The ‘over' is 2-0 in its last two games and 4-1 in its last five outings.

    San Diego is 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in its last seven home games. The Chargers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games against Arizona.

    BEARS AT NY GIANTS

    Chicago was 4-0 SU in its last four games prior to the Monday night game with Green Bay. Chicago won and ‘covered' its only road game this year, 27-20 at Dallas as seven-point ‘dogs. The Bears were 2-6 both SU and ATS on the road last year.

    New York is 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games. The ‘over' is 7-1 in New York's last eight games. This is just the fourth series meeting in the last decade, with the road team winning and ‘covering' the last three.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL odds favor Titans versus Denver Broncos

      The Denver Broncos have a wheezing ground game, a turnstile offensive line and issues finishing drives, ingredients that will add up to many more losses if they don’t fix things fast.

      The Broncos are in a tough stretch. They aren’t playing terrible, but winning Sunday at Nashville would be an upset. Most offshore sportsbooks opened Tennessee as 6 ½-point NFL spread favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 41 ½.

      Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

      Even without any semblance of a rushing attack, Denver is getting itself into the red zone more often than any team in the NFL. The Broncos have been able to bend opposing defenses, but with the exception of Seattle, have not been able to break through.

      Racking up 519 yards of offense and scoring only 13 points is a hard thing to do in the NFL. Then again, turning the ball over three times on downs in scoring position will do that to you and that’s what Denver did last week while losing at home to the Indianapolis Colts, 27-13.

      So far, the defense has led the way for the Titans. The unit, among the league’s worst in 2009, has allowed just 42 points. Only four teams have allowed fewer points through three games.

      However, that defense will have to play better when Denver visits Sunday. New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for 386 yards last week against Tennessee and Broncos’ quarterback Kyle Orton threw for a career-best 476 yards against the Colts.

      If the Titans are to return to the playoffs, the passing offense will look like it did in the Derrick Mason playoff years, a maturing quarterback with a valuable number-one receiver and a collection of players in complementary role.

      Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

      That hasn’t been the case thus far despite Tennessee’s 2-1 record. Vince Young remains a work in progress. When the Titans throw 35 times like they did against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, they’re toast. That’s not how the offense is built in terms of philosophy and personnel.

      Tennessee really needs to find a happy medium between the run and the pass. Chris Johnson can’t continue to carry the ball 32 times, as he did against New York. Through three games Johnson has more carries (75) than any other running back in the league. Young, meanwhile, has thrown fewer passes (43) than any other starting quarterback.

      Orton is not perfect, but he has been very good. Denver has a lot of receiving options and the passing game is making up for the porous run game.

      Look for the Broncos to pick on Alterraun Verner, a fourth-round pick out of UCLA, who will be the starter for the Titans at left corner in place of Jason McCourty (broken left forearm).

      Verner kept things under control throughout the final two-plus quarters against the Giants. He made four tackles, broke up one pass and recovered a fumble and the Titans blanked New York in the second half.

      Top Sports Betting Action at 5Dimes.com

      Tennessee has cashed 10 of its last 14 versus teams on the minus side of the ledger. However, the Titans have failed to ‘cover’ in 10 of 12 tries during Week 4 and they are 9-17 ATS after scoring 28 points or more.

      Denver’s visit to Music City is the first of two straight games on the road. The Broncos are 29-14 ATS in the first game of a two-city trip.

      Tennessee has ended on the up side at a 24-10-1 clip after winning SU as dogs. The Titans have also zipped ‘over’ in 29 of 43 at home versus non-division foes and topped the ‘total’ at a 10-2-1 rate during Week 4.

      Denver has eclipsed the ‘total’ in its last five road contests and in seven of eight overall. However, the Broncos have strayed ‘under’ in 12 of 17 road tests after losing by 10 points or more.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Steelers look to remain perfect SU & ATS

        If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the first three weeks of the NFL season it’s that parity is alive and well. Only three NFL teams have 3-0 SU records—the Steelers, Bears and Chiefs—and Pittsburgh and Kansas City are the only two NFL teams with 3-0 records ATS. The obvious question on every bettor’s mind: What happens next?
        With the Chiefs on a Week 4 bye, we’ll hold off a week before going in-depth on the team that has been the surprise of the NFL thus far. The Steelers, meanwhile, are an intriguing case because they’ve achieved success without two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Oddsmakers feared the worst when watching the Steelers’ backup passers look dubious this preseason, and even went so far as to make Pittsburgh a home underdog in the season opener against the Falcons. But a strong running game and an elite defense have led the way to their impressive start.

        Since Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ starting QB as a rookie in 2004, he’s missed 11 starts, including the first three this season. Two of those were Week 17 games when Pittsburgh was already in the playoffs and probably would’ve played Big Ben in a more pressing situation—plus, other key players were given those games off. In the other nine Roethlisberger-less games, the Steelers are now 7-2 ATS and 6-3 SU.

        Thus, the trend becomes clear that oddmakers overreact when Roethlisberger is out. This year has featured three relatively easy covers, with Pittsburgh beating the spread by an average of 14.5. As talented as Roethlisberger is, the cliché is true: The Steelers are a running and defensive team. With 10 takeaways and 33 points allowed, Pittsburgh’s defense has been dominant.

        Perhaps the biggest reason the Pittsburgh defense has returned to dominance is the return to health of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. Although he started five games in 2009, Polamalu really only had an impact in four being that he left the game with a knee injury while making a tackle on Cincinnati’s first possession of Pittsburgh’s 18-12 loss on Nov. 15. The Steelers went 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in those four games with Polamalu; they were an un-Steelers-like 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS when their star safety wasn’t on the field. With Polamalu missing three quarters of last season, Pittsburgh limped to a 5-10-1 ATS record—the Jaguars and Lions were the only other NFL teams with an ATS winning percentage under 35% in 2009.

        Again, the question: What happens next? The Steelers are favored by a slim 1.5-point margin this Sunday at home against AFC North rival Baltimore, a team against which they were 1-0-1 ATS last season despite that fact that a) Roethlisberger sat out their first meeting, a three-point overtime road loss for the Steelers, who were getting 7.5 points in that game; and b) Polamalu missed both contests. A more general trend: NFL teams starting 3-0 SU since 2007 are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in their fourth game. Expect the Steelers to emerge Sunday afternoon as the only NFL team with a 4-0 ATS record to start the season.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          NFL Tech Trends - Week 4

          DENVER at TENNESSEE... Denver "over" 7-1 last 8 since late '09. Titans just 4-10 their last 14 as chalk. Tech edge-"Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

          BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH... These two "over" 6-2 their last 8 meetings. If chalk, note Tomlin just 6-11 last 17 in role. Tech edge-Ravens and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND... Browns lost both meetings LY but managed covers in each. Four of last five "under" in series. Cincy 5-17 last 22 as chalk, 1-7 last 8 as road favorite. Tech edge- Browns and "under," based on team and series trends.

          DETROIT at GREEN BAY... Lions have lost 9 in a row SU vs. Pack and are just 1-7 vs. line last 8 against GB. Pack 10-5 as chalk since LY and 35-18 vs. number last 53 on board since late ‘06. Tech edge-slight to Pack, based on series trends.

          CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS... Saints have only covered 4 of last 16 on board (4-12-1), and they’ve dropped their last four spread decisions vs. Panthers. But Carolina off to very slow in 2010 (0-3 SU and vs. line). Carolina "under" 13-7 last 20 as well. Tech edge-slight to Saints, based on recent team trends.

          SAN FRANCISCO at ATLANTA... 49ers were wiped out 45-10 by Falcs LY, but Singletary is 8-1 last 9 as dog. Falcs, however, 7-2 vs. number at Georgia Dome since LY. Tech edge-49ers, based on team trends.

          SEATTLE at ST. LOUIS... Seahawks have won and covered last 6 in series, but they’re only 1-8 vs. number last 9 away. Tech edge-Rams, based on Seahawk road woes.

          NY JETS at BUFFALO... Bills 1-6 last 7 as Orchard Park dog, also "under" 13-7 last 20 since late ‘08. Tech edge-slight to Jets and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

          INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE... Note road team has covered last 6 in series, including Colts’ last 3 trips to JV. Jags 4-14 vs. line at home since ‘08, 10-24 overall vs. llne that span. Colts also "over" 7-3 last 10 since late LY. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          HOUSTON at OAKLAND... Raiders only 5-9 vs. line last 14 at home, 15-35 vs. line last 50 as host. Kubiak 9-4 vs. line last 13 away. Kubiak also "over" last 4 since late LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

          ARIZONA at SAN DIEGO... Norv still in first five games of season, in which he is just 6-11-1 vs. line since ‘07 (1-1 TY). Whisenhunt 7-2 last 9 as road dog but 0-1 in role TY. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on team trends.

          WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA... McNabb returns to Linc! Skins have covered last 3 trips to Linc, and Andy Reid just 11-13 vs. line at home since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Skins, based on series trends.

          CHICAGO at NY GIANTS... Coughlin just 3-11 last 14 on board, and "over" 13-5 last 18. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

          NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI (Monday, October 4)... Sparano covered both LY and Dolphins 4-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Sparano just 5-12 vs. line at home since ‘08, however. Tech edge-slight to Dolphins, based on series trends.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Week 3 Rewind

            The underdogs were barking up a storm in Week 3 of the NFL season, cashing tickets at an 11-5 against-the-spread clip. Eight of those 11 underdogs won outright, while the ‘over’ posted a 9-7 record.

            Let’s take a game-by-game look at the Week 3 action.

            Falcons 27, Saints 24 (overtime)
            I’ve always thought head coaches that call a timeout at the last second to “ice” a kicker are such knuckleheads. On that note, I was shocked to see Sean Payton use that boneheaded move in Sunday’s 27-24 overtime loss to the Falcons. Of course, Payton’s TO nullified a blocked field goal, and Atlanta’s Matt Bryant then nailed a 46-yard game winner. The Falcons won outright as 4 ½-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-180 range (paid $180 on $100 wagers). The Saints and Falcons are now tied atop the NFC South, but Atlanta has the tiebreaker edge – for now.

            Eagles 28, Jags 3
            If you wish, you can go back and check the old-school Power Hours archive files. When Michael Vick was sent to prison, I stated with authority that IF he got his head straight (he appears to have done so), his incarceration could be a blessing in disguise for his career. I discussed how much of a pounding his body was taking with the Falcons and how two years off would give him time to heal and that I thought he wouldn’t lose much from an athleticism standpoint. Well, here we are, and those words are ringing true several years later. Vick dominated the Jags in a run-away-and-hide win for the Eagles. Vick connected on 17-of-31 passes for 291 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also had a 17-yard TD run. Philadelphia took the cash as a three-point favorite, while the 31 combined points fell ‘under’ the 44 ½-point total.

            Cowboys 27, Texans 13
            With a 0-2 record, Dallas was desperate for a win as a three-point underdog at unbeaten Houston. That’s exactly what the Cowboys got, cruising to a 27-13 victory behind an efficient passing game led by Tony Romo, who completed 23-of-30 throws for 284 yards and two TDs without a turnover. DeMarcus Ware, the pride of the Troy Trojans program, made life miserable for Matt Schaub with three sacks. The ‘Boys are now 1-2 going into their bye week with a home game against Tennessee looming. The 40 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 47 ½-point tally.

            Vikings 24, Lions 10
            Minnesota was in the same situation as Dallas, but it was a double-digit home favorite. The Vikings got their first win and hooked up their backers thanks to another monster performance from RB Adrian Peterson, who exploded for 160 yards and two TDs on 23 carries. Another positive sign for the Vikes was the production of Percy Harvin, who had six receptions for 62 yards and a TD, in addition to a 23-yard punt return. The Lions, who closed as high as 13-point ‘dogs at many books, failed to cover for the first time this season.

            Bengals 20, Panthers 7
            Cedric Benson scored on a one-yard plunge in the first quarter and then found paydirt again on a seven-yard reception from Carson Palmer to put the game on ice. The Bengals cashed tickets as three-point road favorites, while the 27 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 37-point total. Marvin Lewis’s team is 2-1 and in a second-place tie with the Ravens in the AFC North. The Steelers lead the loop by one game with a perfect 3-0 mark. The Bengals play at Cleveland and then host the Bucs before their open date.

            Ravens 24, Browns 17
            Joe Flacco threw three touchdown passes without being intercepted, but the Ravens failed to cover the number as 12 ½-point favorites. Anquan Boldin pulled down all three TD grabs from Flacco and finished with eight receptions for 142 yards. Cleveland took a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter when Seneca Wallace found Benjamin Watson for a one-yard TD pass. The Browns stayed in the game thanks to their ground attack led by Peyton Hillis, who rushed 24 times for 144 yards and one TD. (Remember, Hillis played in the same backfield at Arkansas with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.) But once the Browns took the lead, Baltimore quickly answered with Flacco finding Boldin for their third TD connection. The 41 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 36 1/2-point total.

            Chiefs 31, 49ers 10
            Here’s the NFL’s biggest surprise team – unbeaten Kansas City. The Chiefs rolled to a 3-0 record by trouncing the winless 49ers as short home underdogs. Matt Cassel threw three TD passes, while the RB combination of Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles combined for 192 rushing yards on 31 carries. Rookie playmaker Dexter McCluster continued to do just that – make plays. The Ole Miss product had three catches for 69 yards and one TD, in addition to a 30-yard punt return. The 41 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 38-point total on the game’s final play, a 12-yard TD pass from Alex Smith to Josh Morgan.

            Titans 29, Giants 10
            The Titans went on the road and outscored the G-Men 19-0 in the second half to cruise to an easy win in the Meadowlands. Tennessee won outright as a three-point ‘dog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the plus-135 range. Chris Johnson went off, erupting for 125 rushing yards and a pair of TD runs. A week after getting yanked in favor of Kerry Collins in a loss to Pittsburgh, Vince Young play mistake-free football. He completed 10-of-16 passes for 118 yards and one TD without committing a turnover. Eli Manning threw for 386 yards, but he was picked off twice and didn’t throw a TD pass. The Titans are in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South with the Colts and Texans. They host the Broncos in Week 4.

            Steelers 38, Bucs 13
            Down to its fourth-string QB in the pecking order, Pittsburgh was listed as a short road favorite at Tampa Bay. I jumped all over the Steelers and it turned into an easy winner, as they stayed unbeaten and atop the brutal AFC North. Making his first start since 2007, veteran signal caller Charlie Batch threw three TD passes in the first half and Mike Tomlin’s club cruised to an easy victory at the New Sombrero. Rashard Mendenhall ran 19 times for 143 yards and one TD, while Mike Wallace had three catches for 100 yards and two TDs. The 51 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 33-point total. In fact, the ‘over’ was already a winner at intermission when the Steelers led by a 28-6 count.

            Patriots 38, Bills 30
            New England improved to 2-1 and took a share of first place in the AFC East along with the Jets and Dolphins. However, the Pats failed to cover the number as 14 ½-point favorites, while the 68 combined points flew ‘over’ the 42 ½-point tally. Tom Brady connected on 21-of-27 passes for 252 yards and three TDs without throwing a pick. He continued to establish a nice rapport with rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez, who had a team-high six receptions for 65 yards. Randy Moss had two catches for 42 yards and two TDs. Buffalo rookie C.J. Spiller got into the end zone on a 95-yard kickoff return.

            Rams 30, Redskins 16
            Washington appeared to be on the cusp of a 2-0 record when it had the Texans on the ropes in Week 2. Eight days later, the Redskins are 1-2 instead with a trip to Philadelphia looming. St. Louis scored the last 16 points of the game to collect its first win of the Sam Bradford Era. Bradford threw for 235 yards and one TD, while Steven Jackson and Kenneth Darby both had a TD run apiece. The Rams won outright as five-point home underdogs, cashing generous plus-180 tickets for money-line backers. The 46 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 39-point total.

            Cardinals 24, Raiders 23
            Arizona improved to 2-1 and stayed in a first-place tie with Seattle in the NFC West thanks to Sunday’s nail-biting win over Oakland. Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals, including the potential game-winner from 32 yards out as time expired. Nevertheless, Oakland backers took the money as a 5 ½-point underdog, while gamblers supporting the ‘over’ also cashed in. Derek Anderson’s eight-yard TD pass to Larry Fitzgerald in the third quarter proved to be the difference. On the bright side for the Raiders, Darren McFadden continued to stay healthy and produce big numbers. The Arkansas product ran for 105 yards to bring his season tally to 345. Oakland will host the Texans next week, while the Cardinals play at San Diego.

            Colts 27, Broncos 13
            Indianapolis won for a second straight week thanks to a defense that gave up yards galore but tightened up in the red zone. Denver’s Kyle Orton threw for a career-high 476 yards, but couldn’t get his team into the end zone at crunch time. Peyton Manning threw for 325 yards and three TDs without committing a turnover. Austin Collie had 12 receptions for 171 yards and a pair of TD grabs. The Colts took the cash as six-point favorites, while the 40 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47-point tally.

            Seahawks 27, Chargers 20
            The demise of Leon Washington was greatly exaggerated. After sustaining a brutal knee injury with the Jets last year, some thought the speedster might be done. However, that notion was put to rest Sunday when Washington returned a pair of kicks for touchdowns, including the game winner in the final stanza to lift the Seahawks into the win column. They won outright as 3 ½-point underdogs, cashing money-line tickets in the plus-150 range. Philip Rivers threw for 455 yards for the Bolts, but they continued to struggle to get victories in the month of September, as has been the trend during much of Norv Turner’s tenure. The 47 combined points inched ‘over’ the 44-point total.

            Jets 31, Dolphins 23
            If we’ve learned anything about Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez in his brief NFL career to date, it’s that he has the propensity to respond to adversity by playing his best football. After a disaster of a performance in a Week 1 loss to Baltimore, Sanchez has looked like an All-Pro. To be exact, he has led the Jets to back-to-back wins over division rivals by throwing for six TD passes without being intercepted. Dustin Keller hauled in six catches for 98 yards and two TDs, while Braylon Edwards had two catches for 87 yards and one TD. LaDainian Tomlinson added 70 rushing yards and a TD run at crunch time, as the Jets won at Miami as 2 ½-point underdogs. The ‘over’ was an easy winner. The ‘Fins will look to bounce back when they host the Pats, while Jets go on the road to face Buffalo.

            Bears 20, Packers 17
            Chicago stayed unbeaten thanks to a pair of short field goals from Robbie Gould, including a 19-yarder with four ticks remaining. Green Bay beat itself with an unfathomable 18 penalties and a costly fumble at crunch time. The Bears won outright as three-point underdogs, as their money-line backers brought home a plus-140 payout. The 37 combined points fell ‘under’ the 46-point total. Chicago will take its unbeaten ledger to the Meadowlands to face the Giants next week, while the Packers will host the Lions at Lambeau Field.

            **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

            --Kudos to Kevin Kolb for being a team player during the Eagles’ blowout win. There’s still a good chance that Kolb’s name will get called in 2010, as Vick still puts himself in harm’s way, albeit not as much.

            --After sustaining a bruised knee in Baltimore’s win over the Browns, Ray Rice is considered “questionable” at Pittsburgh.

            --MVP Candidates:
            1-Michael Vick (Eagles)
            2-Chris Johnson (Titans)
            3-Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
            4-Clay Matthews (Packers)
            5-Peyton Manning (Colts)

            --Coach of the Year Candidates
            1-Mike Tomlin (Steelers)
            2-Todd Haley (Chiefs)
            3-Lovie Smith (Bears)
            4-Tony Sparano (Dolphins)
            5-Mike Smith (Falcons)

            --My Top Ten
            1-Steelers
            2-Ravens
            3-Falcons
            4-Saints
            5-Jets
            6-Packers
            7-Colts
            8-Eagles
            9-Bengals
            10-Patriots
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Books beat Bettors -- Again

              The parity of the NFL once again was too tough to prognosticate as the Nevada Sportsbooks once again raked in all the chips with the season scoreboard reading: Books 3, Players 0. Week 3 wasn’t as ruthless to the players as last week where all factions of the betting public lost, but it was still difficult as the favorites went 5-10 with seven of the underdogs winning outright. The sharp money actually did well hitting a few of their games this week, but for the average Joe betting a three or four game parlay, it was lights out again.
              Through the first three weeks, the regular guy’s head is spinning because it was only a year ago where it was just the opposite as they found it hard to lose. A bettor could walk into a book for the first seven weeks of the 2009 season and lay the three highest spreads and BINGO, 6/1 odds were paid back. It was almost too easy and it left many of Vegas’ top bookmakers scratching their heads on how to combat the losses.

              On Sunday that strategy didn’t work so well as the three double digit spreads went 1-2 with the one game covering, the Vikings at -13, getting tattooed by sharp money. The Buffalo Bills who could manage only 17 points combined in their first two games put up 30 points on the Patriots who closed as 14-point favorites. A Bills touchdown with 4:11 left in the game had players all over the state ripping up the first of many parlay tickets on the day.

              Another strategy that was golden last year was picking on the bad teams. This year, it’s been a bad move as four of the worst teams from 2009 have been four of the sportsbooks best friends. The Rams, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns are pushovers no more and all covered on Sunday. While they still may turn out to be bad as the year goes on, they have raised cause for concern or caution in the back of every bettor’s mind.

              Any parlay tickets alive that avoided the Patriots were surely doomed by picking the Ravens, 49ers and Redskins. The Chiefs had originally opened as 1 ½-point home favorites to the 49ers and by Thursday the 49ers were favored by 3. After their gritty Monday night game against the Saints where they lost by a field goal, but still covered, everyone figured the 49ers were back to be who we all thought they were, a good team capable of going far in the playoffs. What they turned out to be in Kansas City was almost an exact replica of their Week 1 loss at Seattle by losing 31-10, almost the exact score from this past Sunday.

              Michael Vick and the Eagles were a popular play from the public that got there easy, but the rewards from that game were never found as all the others plays on their parlays went down the toilet. At the same time many of the experts, or contrarian bettors, liked the Jaguars on straight bets and made the books winners as the Eagles dominated 28-3.

              In the sportsbooks category analysis for Week 3, they were either very small winners or losers on the straight bets thanks to the sharps but the house made their killing in parlays, both off the board and on the cards. With the September ledgers about to close out the third quarter, most sportsbooks can say that they have enjoyed one of their best Septembers ever and in the process have helped carry a large portion of the casino’s budget.

              Hail to the Back-ups

              Picking on a back-up quarterback is usually a pretty good trend to go with in the NFL. Taking the Bengals last week as they played against first-time starter Jimmy Clausen got the money. A late touchdown by the Vikings secured the cover against Shaun Hill and the Lions. However, on the down side of the trend, Seneca Wallace kept the Browns within the spread as well as Bruce Gradkowski of the Raiders.

              Hail to the Chiefs

              After only three games the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs already have a two-game lead in the AFC West and are looking like this year’s surprise team, much in the same way Denver started out last season. They have won each of their games this season by several different methods led by defense, special teams and some tricky offensive plays. Rookie Dexter McCluster looks to be a Reggie Bush type of player that fits the team well and makes opposing defenses have to game plan for him specifically. Unfortunately, the Chiefs have a bye this week which could be a momentum killer. If using Denver as a reference, the 2009 Broncos were 6-0 going into their bye and came out of it losing four in a row and ultimately finishing the year out 2-8.

              Giants Lured

              The Giants 29-10 loss to the Titans can be attributed to a few tipped Eli Manning interceptions and some crafty coaching by Jeff Fisher. Giants coach Tom Coughlin warned his players all week about the nature of a Fisher coached team provoking opposing players into personal fouls. Coughlin should know since he went head-to-head against Fischer 19 times over his career while coaching in the same division with the Jaguars. The advice didn’t help the Giants as they got provoked into five personal fouls during the game with each coming at pivotal moments.

              Dead Zone

              The Denver Broncos moved up and down the field at will on Sunday against the Colts with QB Kyle Orton throwing a career high 472 yards, but came up empty in the red zone. Denver missed all five opportunities they had inside the Colts’ 20 yard line. Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels twice opted to go for a touchdown on fourth down instead of taking a chip shot field goal which ultimately changed the complexion of the game. Fans always love a coach who goes for it, but on the second attempt early in the fourth-quarter down 20-13 on the 12 yard line with a 4th-and-3 situation, the crowd had more a miffed murmuring sound -- instead of the normal cheers when coaches do it -- where they all collectively said, “What the hell is he doing.”

              Player of the Week

              Michael Vick’s 291 yards passing with 3 TD passes and a 17-yard TD run against the Jaguars gives him the nod. It’s hard to imagine him being better than what he was in Atlanta, but he is. He appears to make smarter reads on defenses, better decisions and his accuracy has never been so pin-point. He looks better than his 2006 Madden X-Box player that was virtually unstoppable on the video game. His match against the Redskins and Donovan McNabb this week should get his competitive juices flowing even more. Honorable mention goes to Seattle’s Leon Washington who showed how valuable he is with two kickoff returns for TDs, including the clincher, against the Chargers.

              This Week’s Games

              We have two double-digit favorites, three teams favored by a touchdown to nine points and five home ‘dogs. The card looks like a tough one but the game that stands out most is the Chargers laying 9 at home against the Cardinals. The 1-2 Chargers are back at home going against a Cardinals team that I really can find anything good to say about except that they have a winning record. The two close wins against the Rams and Raiders don’t say as much about the team as their crushing 41-7 loss at Atlanta does. The Chargers should take out some of their frustration on the Cardinals this week, you write the score.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #8
                Backup QB bets pay dividends right away

                Last week, we took a look at the past performances of three veteran reserve quarterbacks who became starters due to injury or ineffectiveness. All of these signal callers had previously made starts for their current clubs and all had fared reasonably well in those games (10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 SU). Those who had faith in this trio are happy today, as all three covered the spread in Week 3 to improve to 13-5-1 ATS (10-9 SU). All three quarterbacks are expected to start again in Week 4, providing further opportunity to cash in on this angle.
                Making his first start for Pittsburgh since 2007, Charlie Batch improved to 4-1 both ATS and SU in five starts as a Steeler. Batch did more than just manage the game for the Steelers, throwing three first-half TD passes en route to a dominating 38-13 win over previously unbeaten Tampa Bay. This week, Pittsburgh (3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) is a 2-point favorite at home against division rival Baltimore (1-2 ATS, 2-1 SU). The Steelers have beaten the Ravens in Pittsburgh each of the last four seasons and are 2-1-1 ATS in those games. As we turn the calendars, FoxSheets point out that Pittsburgh is a solid 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in October games since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.6, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 1*).

                After going 5-2-1 ATS and 4-4 SU in eight starts for Buffalo a year ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick kept things close for the Bills in New England last weekend as they beat the spread for the first time this season in a 38-30 loss. Fitzpatrick completed 20-of-28 pass attempts for 247 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. Despite the two costly picks, the front office must have been encouraged as they released opening-day starter Trent Edwards on Monday. Fitzpatrick and the Bills return home to face the Jets after two weeks on the road. Buffalo played well in its home opener, allowing just one touchdown in a 15-10 loss to Miami. The Bills are a 5.5-point home underdog to the Jets. FoxSheets like Buffalo based on the following: Play On - Home underdogs or pick (Buffalo) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record. (104-52 since 1983.) (66.7%, +46.8 units. Rating = 3*).

                Getting his first start of the season, Bruce Gradkowski appeared to have led Oakland to a straight-up win as a 5.5-point underdog in Arizona. However, Sebastian Janikowski’s 32-yard FG attempt sailed wide left (not the usual side for an FSU kicker, maybe it’s because he kicks left-footed) on the final play of the Raiders’ 24-23 loss to the Cardinals. Gradkowski’s numbers were okay, 17-34, 255, 1 TD and a pick, but he once again showed that the Raiders are more competitive over the last two seasons with him under center. Oakland was a .500 team ATS with or without Gradkowski a year ago, but was 2-2 SU in Gradkowski’s four starts compared to 3-9 SU when he did not start. Oakland is getting a field goal at home against Houston this Sunday. Home underdogs have performed well so far this season, going 13-7-1 ATS, while winning 11 of the 21 contests outright.

                Whether it’s due to injury (in Batch’s case) or ineffectiveness by the previous starter (in the case of Fitzpatrick and Gradkowski), veteran QBs who know their team’s systems continue to be solid plays.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Betting: McNabb and Redskins at Eagles

                  Donovan McNabb Bowl 1 takes place Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field when the Washington Redskins travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles.

                  Most offshore books opened the Eagles as 6 ½-point NFL spread favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 42.

                  McNabb left Philadelphia as the Eagles’ all-time leading passer in completions, attempts, yards and touchdowns. He returns as the quarterback of the Washington Redskins (1-2 SU and ATS), a team in desperate need of a victory to avoid falling out of the NFL playoff chase after just four weeks of the regular season.

                  Coach Andy Reid appears to have made the right decision by trading his aging quarterback while he still had market value remaining. However, his decision to replace McNabb’s anointed successor, Kevin Kolb, with Michael Vick, is still open to debate despite the early returns.

                  Vick has put up some very fancy numbers during the first three weeks of the season since taking over as the starter in the second half of the season opener against Green Bay. However, he has been part of a ‘perfect storm’ that has seen him face some of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL.

                  Vick will look to exploit a Washington stop unit that has surrendered 424 yards per game and has yet to adjust to coach Mike Shanahan’s 3-4 defensive alignment.

                  The Redskins have converted only six third downs all season and haven’t been able to muster any kind of a running attack, averaging just 74 yards per game, 28th in the NFL.

                  Top NFL Betting Odds at EasyStreatsSports.

                  Philadelphia (2-1, 1-2) has bounced back to win two straight on the road at Detroit and Jacksonville after dropping its season opener to the Packers to take over the top spot in the NFC East.

                  The Eagles have won 12 of their last 17 at home, but are just 10-17 ATS over that span. However, they have cashed 18 of 29 as favorites.

                  Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six tries versus teams with a losing road record and the Eagles are 8-3 ATS after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

                  Washington has lost eight of its past nine road games (5-3-1 ATS), yet they have ‘covered’ at an 18-6-1 clip against division foes as underdogs.

                  The Redskins have grabbed the cheese at a 7-3-1 clip in the past 11 meetings, cashing in four of the last five in Philly. The dog is 5-1-1 in the last seven showdowns.

                  Washington has strayed ‘under’ at a 17-7-1 pace as division road pups and ended on the low side at a 6-1-1 clip in its last eight October outings. The Skins have eclipsed the ‘total’ in eight of their last 11 as underdogs.

                  Philadelphia has slipped below the number at a 20-10-1 rate as favorites off a double-digit win and in 22 of 30 after scoring 28 points or more. In addition, they have dipped ‘under’ at a 20-5-1 pace as home favorites of 3 ½ to 10 points.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Week 4 biggest home favorites, line movement

                    PLAY AGAINST HEAVY HOME FAVORITES
                    A handicapping angle that has paid consistent dividends for decades validated itself again last week. As we pointed out prior to Week 3, FoxSheets strongly suggests to Play AGAINST home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite.
                    There were three games that featured this scenario last week and two of them came through. Cleveland easily covered the 12.5-point spread at Baltimore, falling 24-17 after having led the game outright 17-14 in the fourth quarter. Likewise, Buffalo beat the 14-point spread at New England in a 38-30 loss. The Bills were within one score of the Patriots and had possession of the ball late in the game before an INT ended their upset hopes. In the third such contest, Detroit just missed covering the 13 points it was getting at Minnesota, losing 24-10 in a game that was 14-10 at the half.

                    After last week’s 2-1 record using this angle, the data stands as follows, as calculated in the FoxSheets: 44-15 since 1983. (74.6%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*).

                    There are two such opportunities this week. Detroit gets another shot as a heavy 15-point underdog at Green Bay, who lost as a road favorite on Monday night in Chicago. Meanwhile, Carolina is getting 13.5 points from the defending Super Bowl champions in the Superdome. New Orleans is coming off an agonizing overtime loss to Atlanta.

                    WEEK 4 LINE MOVEMENT
                    Four games on the Week 4 schedule have spreads that have moved by a full point. Interestingly, for three of these games, the line has moved in the opposite direction of where the money is going. These fall into the category of the “smart money” opportunities that we presented a week ago in which you go against the popular choice and side with the direction that the line is moving.

                    Last week, the line in the Detroit at Minnesota game jumped from 10 to11 in favor of the Vikings despite the fact that the Lions were the more popular choice. This suggested a play on the Vikings, which proved to be correct.

                    This week, Houston has dropped from -4 to -3 at Oakland while the Texans have garnered a vast majority of the wagering activity. We’ve seen plenty of success from home underdogs so far this season (13-7-1 ATS, 11-10 SU), plus Oakland is tied for second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.7.

                    The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either.

                    Finally, San Diego has gone from -9 to -8 at home against Arizona even though most of the betting public is on the Chargers. A look at the FoxSheets shows that the Cardinals have been dominant in the 10th month in recent years: Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Arizona 28.8, Opponent 18.2.

                    The only game for which the line has moved a full point toward the side that is getting the most action is New England (pick to -1) at Miami.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Can Ravens-Steelers play under 34-point total?

                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1)
                      at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-0)

                      Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Pittsburgh -1, Total: 34

                      One of the NFL’s nastiest rivalries should deliver another low-scoring slugfest. Oddsmakers certainly don’t expect much offense with a meager total of 34 for Sunday’s over/under. Pittsburgh is trying to start a season 4-0 for the first time in 31 years.

                      Baltimore RB Ray Rice is likely to suit up on Sunday despite a right knee contusion. After gaining 2,041 total yards last year, Rice has had a slow start to the season, averaging just 92 total YPG with no touchdowns. Rice rushed for 141 yards on 30 carries last season at Pittburgh. Ravens QB Joe Flacco was terrible Week 2, throwing four interceptions in the loss at Cincinnati. But he was great last game against the Browns, going 22-of-31 for 262 yards and three touchdowns. WR Anquan Boldin caught all three of those scores and already has 20 receptions for 287 yards this year. The Ravens defense has been banged up and was torched for 144 rushing yards by little-known Peyton Hillis last week.

                      The Steelers defense is playing at an elite level with 10 forced turnovers, 59.7 rush YPG and an NFL-best 11.0 PPG allowed. But the offense has been shaky without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are tied with Buffalo for the fewest passing yards in the NFL (139 pass YPG). Although the Ravens are susceptible in the secondary, Charlie Batch is unlikely to take advantage. Batch was pretty efficient last week against Tampa Bay though, throwing for three touchdowns with just five incomplete passes (including two INT).

                      Including playoffs, the Steelers have won nine of the past 10 games when hosting the Ravens and are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four meetings overall.

                      This FoxSheets trend expects Pittsburgh to prevail in this game:

                      PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.7, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 1*).

                      Despite the low total, the FoxSheets still like the Under.

                      Play Under - Any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - in conference games, in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games. (63-33 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.6%, +26.7 units. Rating = 2*).
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Las Vegas Money Moves

                        The bettors come in limping to Week 4 of the NFL with not a lot to offer in the forms of wagers through the first four days of open windows. The sharps bounced back a little last week, but for the little guy who makes these big weekends for the sportsbook obtainable, they are overextended in their budgeted funds. Because of being tapped out to a degree, Las Vegas books haven’t seen the average type of small play that is normally seen.
                        It does happen quite often when the players get beat on consecutive weeks like just happened, but when Friday night rolls around, somehow the players always come back firing with a renewed vigor and excitement to get their money back. Sure, they may have to dip into the ATM for a little back up ammo and instead of taking the wife to Outback Steakhouse, she may have to settle for Olive Garden.

                        Plays have to be made, that‘s just how guys are -- even some girls. Once you get into that regular routine of having action with varied success, it’s hard to take a week off. I’d be willing to bet that no matter how quiet things are at the moment inside the sportsbooks, that after all the final handle is tallied from Saturday and Sunday that it will be equal to what it was last week -- with two less NFL games -- or even last year during the same week when the players were rolling in dough.

                        We are breeding players in Nevada who have a starvation for the action that will always keep them coming back for more. It’s not quite as sinister as it sounds, but it is an addiction that we all thrive on and welcome like watching HBO on Sunday nights. Spending $100 to $200 a week on football action is far less pressing on the pocket book than actually going to a weekly pro or college football game, where after parking, tickets, drinks, food and accessories, the entertainment of the game has cost you way more than it would have by just staying home, betting and watching the games.

                        And going to the game doesn’t give you shot at doubling or tripling your money; all the live football games do is just keep taking money with no return like the slot machines in England Pubs. A live football game’s excitement can easily be duplicated and then some. Come on, hitting a three-team parlay is pretty exciting stuff.

                        Having gone through all that, here’s a look at this weeks Las Vegas line moves in the NFL beginning the game of the week between the Ravens and Steelers where Baltimore opened as a slight 1 ½-point favorite. It didn’t stay that way for long as the Steelers money came in pushing them to the favorite at -1 ½. You can’t argue with Mike Tomlin’s success in this series as he’s gone 5-2 in regular season and playoff games against the Ravens. Pittsburgh will be looking for its first 4-0 season since 1979, the last of its four Super Bowls with former legendary coach Chuck Knoll.

                        The only problem I have with the Steelers is backup quarterback Charlie Batch coming off a good game, actually it‘s just Batch in any game. He’s always been good enough to not make the big mistake and let the defense dictate field position, but I have hard time seeing him do it again flawlessly this week and I have a time seeing this team being 4-0 without Ben Roethlisberger. The last time he started against the Ravens was a 27-21 loss in 2007. I can’t see the score being that high this time around, but I can see the margin of victory being the same.

                        The big Sharp play of the week came in on the Jaguars getting 7 ½-points at home against the Colts. The Colts are now -7 flat around town and the books are likely go to reluctantly root the Sharps in this one because the public will be all over Indianapolis after being swayed dramatically by what happened the previous week. The Colts looked better than ever in a cover at Denver and the Jaguars looked awful losing as a home dog to Philly. The public thinking will be, “What has changed so drastically over the week that will make me believe taking Jacksonville at home, plus points, is a good deal.“

                        The public also has a long term memory that spans to last season where the Colts covered as a road favorite at Jacksonville on a Thursday night isolated game. It was a barn-burner and went to the final moments with a 65-yard scoring play by Reggie Wayne to win by 4 (35-31). Public faith in the Colts added another chapter as just about everyone in the books had a winning two-team parlay with Colts to the ‘over’ as well.

                        The New York Jets have been pushed from their opener of 4 ½-point favorites to the dead numbers of 5 and 5 ½ in their match at Buffalo, meaning it won't take long until it gets to -6. If you like the Jets, bet it now. The Bills’ cover last week with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm has a few people miffed at what to expect this week, but most are all in with the Jets this week as signal caller Mark Sanchez has made the public believers the last two weeks by throwing six touchdown passes. Hard to believe he doesn’t have any interceptions through three games.

                        The Falcons, Chargers, Browns and Titans are gaining support as well. West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast usually fare very poorly. We saw the Falcons handle the Cardinals quite easily in Week 2 while the Broncos played well, but lost at Jacksonville in their opener. San Francisco couldn’t have got a worse first four games of their schedule if they tried; three road games and a home date with the Super Bowl champs.

                        College Football Action

                        Some of the Sharp plays this week went with Kentucky, Iowa State and of course a few MAC games with Kent State and Buffalo. The marquee games of Texas-Oklahoma, Florida-Alabama and Stanford-Oregon have all remained basically unchanged with good two-way action on each side.

                        Here’s a look at some of the larger large line movements of the week:

                        North Carolina moved 2 ½-points to -14 against East Carolina
                        Temple opened -4 at Army and is now -6 ½
                        Memphis was getting +12 at home against Tulsa, but is now +9 ½
                        LSU moved 2 ½-points from their opener against Tennessee to -16 ½
                        Florida International opened at +20 ½ at Pittsburgh and is now +17 ½
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Can injury-plagued Broncos upset Titans?

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          DENVER BRONCOS (1-2)
                          at TENNESSEE TITANS (2-1)

                          Kickoff: Sunday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Tennessee -6.5, Total: 42.5

                          Vince Young will be a welcome sight for the Broncos a week after Denver’s injury-ravaged secondary was torched by Peyton Manning for 325 yards and three scores. The Denver run defense will see its first major test of the year in All-Pro RB Chris Johnson -- the Broncos front seven struggled against the run late last season -- but Young is not a huge threat to take advantage of a gimpy Champ Bailey and Company. Tennessee’s defense capitalized on three Giants turnovers last week, which helped the Titans overcome surrendering 471 yards of offense.

                          Denver is still dealing with some injuries, namely to RB Knowshon Moreno who is likely to miss Sunday’s game due to his bad hamstring. RBs Laurence Maroney (12 rush, 24 yds) and Correll Buckhalter (21 rush, 46 yds) have not picked up the slack this season, but the return of RT Ryan Harris (ankle) will give a nice boost to the running game. No boost needed for a Broncos air attack that was supposed to suffer without Brandon Marshall. QB Kyle Orton threw for 476 yards last week against the Colts, and Brandon Lloyd is second in the NFL with 339 receiving yards.

                          Tennessee is healthier than Denver, but starting LCB Jason McCourty is out 3-4 weeks with a fractured forearm. Look for Orton to throw plenty of balls in the direction of McCourty’s backup, rookie Alterrun Verner. On offense, the Titans rank 30th in the league in passing yardage (147 YPG) and Chris Johnson is nowhere near last year’s 2,000-yard pace with just 301 yards on the ground. He has scored four touchdowns, though.

                          These teams have only met twice since the Oilers moved to Tennessee, and Denver won both meetings (34-20 in 2007 and 37-16 in 2004). This FoxSheets trend shows why Denver will win again.

                          DENVER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was DENVER 28.8, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 2*).

                          This FoxSheets trend likes the Under.

                          Play Under - Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a terrible defense - allowing 5.7 or more yards/play, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. (27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*).
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I have 6 BIG PLAYS TODAY........I'll list them as my POD'S

                            Sunday, October 3Game Score Status Pick Amount

                            N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Over 36.5 500
                            Buffalo -

                            Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +2.5 500 ( AFC UPSET )
                            Pittsburgh -

                            San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco +6.5 500
                            Atlanta -

                            Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
                            Cleveland -

                            Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver +6.5 500 ( AFC DOG OF THE DAY )
                            Tennessee -

                            Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Over 44.5 500 ( NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY )
                            New Orleans -

                            Houston - 4:05 PM ET Houston -3 500 ( AFC BLOW OUT OF THE DAY )
                            Oakland -

                            Indianapolis - 4:05 PM ET Over 46 500
                            Jacksonville -

                            Washington - 4:15 PM ET Washington +5.5 500 ( NFC DOG OF THE DAY )
                            Philadelphia -

                            Arizona - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -9 500 ( INTERCONFERENCE BLOWOUT )
                            San Diego -


                            I'll be listing the other games as opinons........Will also have the sunday night game up later.......good luck !
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                              09/27/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/26/10 18-12-0 60.00% +2400 Detail
                              09/20/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/19/10 19-11-0 63.33% +3450 Detail
                              09/13/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                              09/12/10 13-13-0 50.00% -650 Detail
                              09/09/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
                              09/02/10 14-15-3 48.28% -1250 Detail
                              Totals 70-55-3 56.00% +4750
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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