Announcement

**Udog** · 09-28-2010, 09:33 AM

NFL opening line report: Week 4

Once Week 3 is out of the way, everything gets much more interesting in the NFL.

Bettors and oddsmakers alike start to get a better idea of what teams are all about, though after Week 3’s results, it seems like the only thing that’s really predictable in this league is unpredictability. This is also our first week dealing with byes and injuries continue to pile up, so there are a lot of handicapping factors in play.

Based on cov.com’s closing odds, underdogs were 10-5 against the number in Week 3 with seven of those dogs winning outright.

This week there aren’t nearly as many big underdogs on the board (though Carolina did open as a 13.5-point dog at New Orleans), but some of the average pointspreads may not stay that way for very long.

“I can see the Colts line (-9 at Jacksonville) moving because Indy takes so much public money,” says Sportsinteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “I can see that line moving as much as a full point. We’ll have the combined effect of people fading the Jags after last Sunday’s terrible effort against Philadelphia. Bettors will think, ‘if they lost that badly to the Eagles, how could they possibly compete against Indianapolis?’”

Another matchup to keep a close eye on is the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers.

“I could easily see this number going up throughout the week,” Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Mangers at Tropicana Las Vegas, says. “We have two teams heading in opposite directions. The Falcons could easily be 3 - 0 while the 49ers have lost to both the Seahawks and Chiefs. Heading into the season the 49ers were on everybody's sleeper list and were expected to win their division.”

Instead, the 49ers sit at the bottom of the NFC West and have covered just once through their 0-3 start. The 49ers along with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers haven’t won yet and are tough for oddsmakers and bettors to get a handle on.

“The road isn't really easy for any of those teams with both the Lions and Panthers being double-digit dogs, the Bills (+4.5) hosting the Jets, and the 49ers against the hot Falcons,” says Esposito. “I really don't see the betting public backing any of them.”

“The only one that may get some interest is the Browns (+3 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals). They haven't played that bad and have been in a couple of games. They usually get up for their interstate rivals.”

Sindall agrees about the 0-3 teams.

“To be honest, I don’t really like any of the 0 – 3 teams,” Sindall says. “They’re all 0 – 3 for a reason. They’re terrible! I guess if I had to take one, I would take Carolina and the points. They haven’t been scoring much, but the Saints have been allowing teams to score and have not been putting up huge offensive numbers. Plus, if Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas are a little banged up, that could help the Panthers cause especially with Reggie Bush already out.”

Last week we saw a number of big injuries impact lines and action. This week injuries won’t play as big of a factor, though there is one guy that could make a difference to bettors and books.

“One injury we are keeping an eye on is Ray Rice (knee) for Baltimore,” Sindall says. “When you’re playing against a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers and they can take a little focus on one aspect of the offense because it is weaker, it could make for a long day for the Ravens offense.”

Ray Rice has 210 rushing yards this season, averaging four yards per carry. Baltimore is set as a 1-point underdog against the Steelers.

**Udog** · 09-28-2010, 09:34 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, October 3

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DENVER (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 95-126 ATS (-43.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (0 - 3) at GREEN BAY (2 - 0) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-43 ATS (-28.3 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ATLANTA (2 - 1) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-46 ATS (-30.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-140 ATS (-47.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 107-140 ATS (-47.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 77-109 ATS (-42.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 3) - 10/3/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 10/3/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 2) - 10/3/2010, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (2 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 10/3/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 136-96 ATS (+30.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (2 - 0) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 10/3/2010, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 4

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 1) - 10/4/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-45 ATS (+23.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-46 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-28-2010, 09:35 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, 10/3/2010

DENVER at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 6-0 Over Away off loss
TENNESSEE: 12-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE: 7-1 ATS as road dog of 3 pts or less
PITTSBURGH: 72-49 Over after allowing 75 or less rushing yards

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 1-8 ATS as favorite
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under off an Over

DETROIT at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 5-1 Over off div road loss
GREEN BAY: 13-4 ATS at home vs. Detroit

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 80-55 ATS as an underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 19-43 ATS at home vs. division

SAN FRANCISCO at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 11-0 Over Away after allowing 450+ yds
ATLANTA: 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

SEATTLE at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-8 ATS off home game
ST LOUIS: 2-11 ATS vs. division

NY JETS at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 4-0 ATS off SU div win as underdog
BUFFALO: 1-5 ATS after scoring 30+ points

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE, 4:05 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 18-5 ATS off 2 straight DD wins
JACKSONVILLE: 4-14 ATS in home games

HOUSTON at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON: 12-1 Under after allowing 400+ total yards/game L3 games
OAKLAND: 9-25 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

ARIZONA at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 6-0 ATS in October
SAN DIEGO: 45-27 Over vs. NFC

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 6-0 Over off 2 straight losses
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over off an Under

CHICAGO at NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM ET NFC
CHICAGO: 3-0 ATS at Giants
NY GIANTS: 13-4 Over off home game

Monday, 10/4/2010

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
NEW ENGLAND: 5-1 Over after allowing 30+ points
MIAMI: 4-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 09-28-2010, 09:37 AM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 3

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. TENNESSEE
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-13-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against Baltimore

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games at home
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games at home

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
CHICAGO vs. NY GIANTS
Chicago is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Giants last 8 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

Monday, October 4

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England

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**Udog** · 09-29-2010, 09:00 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Houston at Oakland
The Texans look to rebound from their 27-13 loss to Dallas and build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Houston is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 199-200: Denver at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.562; Tennessee 136.371
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6); Over

Game 201-202: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.580; Pittsburgh 137.164
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.922; Cleveland 127.305
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3 1/2); Under

Game 205-206: Detroit at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 120.186; Green Bay 140.931
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 21; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-14 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.218; New Orleans 141.306
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 44
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+14); Under

Game 209-210: San Francisco at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.311; Atlanta 137.989
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.532; St. Louis 123.318
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-1); Over

Game 213-214: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.151; Buffalo 130.130
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5; 34
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+5 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.684; Jacksonville 129.696
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+8); Under

Game 217-218: Houston at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 137.528; Oakland 123.878
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Arizona at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.263; San Diego 136.119
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 11; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8); Over

Game 221-222: Washington at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.744; Philadelphia 135.112
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Chicago at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.262; NY Giants 134.795
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3 1/2); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 4

Game 225-226: New England at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 132.274; Miami 137.357
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 1; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1); Over

**Udog** · 10-02-2010, 09:57 PM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 4 analysis

Broncos (1-2) @ Titans (2-1)-- Denver making just second trip to Tennessee; they won here 37-16 back in '04, but are 1-2 so far in '10, with faves covering all three games- they lost only road game 24-17 at Jacksonville. Broncos didn't have a takeaway in either loss, but had four in their win- they're allowing 84.3 rushing yards/game. Titans ran ball for 205-161 yards in their wins, 46 in loss to Steelers. Road team won all three Tennessee games. Titans are 9-6 as home favorite since '08. Broncos are 7-11 as road dog since '07, 5-9 in last 14 games as non-divisional dog. AFC South faves are 5-2 vs spread in non-division tilts.

Ravens (2-1) @ Steelers (3-0)-- Last game without Big Ben for Steelers, who allowed opponents only two TDs on 36 drives so far this year, and have run the ball for 150 ypg with three different QBs playing. Steelers won four of last five series games, as Ravens lost last four visits here by 31-3-9-3 points. This is third road game in four weeks for Ravens, who allowed only two TDs on 33 drives, with 11 3/outs, but in three games, Baltimore started only one drive in enemy territory, while foes started nine in their half of field. Ravens held firt three opponents to 2.6/4,4/5.0 yards per pass attempt. Steelers are going to try to run ball. Home favorites are 1-6 vs spread in divisional games.

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)-- Cincy is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning four of last five played here (won 23-20 in OT here LY); after getting crushed in Foxboro, Bengals forced eight turnovers (+6) in last two games, giving up two TDs on 26 drives (12 3/outs). Browns have been outscored 23-7 so far in second half this year- they led two of three games at half. Cleveland ran ball or 173 yards in Baltimore last week, so they're not horrible, but it hasn't shown itself in win column yet. Browns need to move chains better; they've gone 15 drives where they didn't get a first down, compared to nine for opponents. Home underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in divisional games so far this year.

Lions (0-3) @ Packers (3-0)-- Green Bay on short week after loss in Chicago late Monday night, but they've won nine in row vs Detroit; Lions lost 19 in a row in Wisconsin, losing last four by average score of 27-11. (Last time Lions won in Wisconsin, Brett Favre was a rookie with the Falcons). Lions are 2-7-1 in last ten games as road underdog, losing away games this year 19-14/24-10, both against divisional foes. Pack are 6-1 as double digit favorite since '02, are 13-9-1 as home favorite since '06. Lions are 3-8-1 in last 12 games as double digit underdog. Green Bay swept LY's series, 26-0/34-12. All three Packer games this season stayed under the total.

Panthers (0-3) @ Saints (2-1)-- Champs let one slip away last week, missing a 29-yard FG in OT, now they face 0-3 Carolina team that lost first three games, all by exactly 13 points, but Panthers are 7-1 in last eight visits to Louisiana (lost 30-20 (+12) LY), covering last five. Carolina is 7-2 in last nine games vs New Orleans, but rookie QB Clausen struggled last week, completing a single pass in first half. Saints are now 2-7 as home favorite in divisional games since 2007; they're 2-6 as double digit favorite since 2001. Even before losing last week, Saints had won first two games by only 5-3 points, and that was with NO winning field position battle in every game, by 7-11-7 yards.

49ers (0-3) @ Falcons (2-1)-- Winless Niners sacked OC Raye during week, so no one to blame now but players; third road game in four weeks for SF, with a second trip in row east of Mississippi- they lost first two road games 31-6 at Seattle, 31-10 at KC, giving up seven TDs on 23 drives. Niners are already -5 in turnovers, lost field position battle by 3-11-14 yards. Atlanta got big win in Superdome last week; since not scoring TD in Week 1, they've scored eight in last two games, seven on drives of 70+ yards. Falcons ran ball for 221-202 in last two games. Niners allowed 207 rush yards last week, after giving up 127 yards on ground in first two games combined. NFC South teams are just 1-5-2 vs spread outside their division so far this year.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Rams (1-2)-- Seattle is 10-0 in this series since Rams won a road playoff game in '04 (both teams were 8-8). Bradford got first NFL win last week, this is chance for Rams to end truly dreadful streak in division play (0-15 SU vs NFC West rivals since Week 11 of '07, 4-14-1 vs spread last 3+ years). OL opened up enough holes so St Louis ran for 133 yards last week, even with Jackson not playing in second half. Home team is 3-0 in Seahawk games so far; Hawks lost 11 of last 13 road games, but both wins were here. Seattle's three TDs last week came on two kick returns and 41-yard drive, so offense isn't clicking yet. Huge game in Spagnuolo's rebuilding plan.

Jets (2-1) @ Bills (0-3)—Huge trap game for Jets, after primetime win in Miami last week, with Favre coming to Swamp next Monday night; Gang Green won three of last four series games- they’re 2-4 in last six visits here (beat Bills in Toronto LY). Jets scored seven TDs on 19 drives in last two games, with no turnovers and Sanchez averaged 6.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt. Bills cut Opening Day starting QB Edwards; what happens if Fitzpatrick gets hurt? They allowed 72 points in last two games (nine TDs on 19 drives), giving up 8.8 YPA in both games. Home underdogs are 7-1-1 in divisional games so far this season, but hard to endorse Buffalo here, against Jet squad that has shown it can run ball (132.7 ypg) and now pass it.

Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)—Indy is 14-4 in series, but only once in last eight visits here have Colts won by more than 8 points (29-7 in ’07, -3 off bye); Colts on road for third time in four weeks- they scored seven TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games by 24-14 points. Jaguars are home for third time in four games; they lost last two games by 25 points each, scoring one TD on 22 drives; signing former Bill QB Edwards puts cloud over Garrard’s head, especially after his 13-30/54 passing day in 28-3 loss last week. Indy scoring 29.7 peg despite converting just 14-37 (37.8%) on 3rd down; they usually do better than that. Colts are 12-4 in last 16 games as road favorite; Jags are 3-5 as home dog since 2007.

Texans (2-1) @ Raiders (1-2)—Houston gets mulligan for losing to desperate Cowboys last week, but if they’re playoff team, they win this game, vs disappointed bunch of Raiders who had Arizona beat last week, but lost when Janikowski choked on game-winning 32-yard FG at gun. Texans won four of five series games, taking two of three here; none of the four wins were by less than 7 points. Not sure if Gradkowski can exploit Texan defense that has only one takeaway in three games, allowing 7.1/9.8/9.5 YPA in last game before they get star LB Cushing back. In their history, Texans are just 1-4-1 as road favorite, though they’re 5-2 SU in last seven road games. Oakland ran ball for 147 ypg in first three games; last two games were decided by total of 3 points.

Cardinals (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2)—San Diego off to usual sputtering start, allowing two kick returns for TDs last week; they’ve lost battle of field position all three games, by 9-5-11 yards, making it harder for prolific QB Rivers (755 passing yards last two games). Chargers are 8-3 in series, winning five of six played here; they’re 18-12-1 as home favorite since 2006. Arizona’s two wins are by total of five points; they lost 41-7 in only road game, and have given up 354 rushing yards in last two games. Bolts have nine offensive TDs, have allowed only four, but are still 1-2; only one of four TDs they allowed came on drive longer than 53 yards. No faith in Anderson to play well on road; Redbirds are just 10-34 (29.4%) on 3rd down conversions.

Bears (3-0) @ Giants (1-2)—Chicago only unbeaten left in NFC, travelling on short week after Monday night rivalry win; road team won last seven series games, with Bears winning last three visits here. Chicago’s last loss to Giants here was 31-3 in playoff game 20 years ago. Bears only have one turnover in last two games (+4), after turning it over four times in opener; they covered (+7) at Dallas in Week 2, after going 1-8-1 as road underdog last two years. Giants are -5 in turnovers last two games (outscored 67-24) with only one takeaway; if you don’t force turnovers vs. Martz Madness, Bears will score 20+ points- they scored 47 points in last two games despite going just 4-20 on 3rd down conversions. Giants are 3-6 vs. spread in last nine games as home favorite.

Redskins (1-2) @ Eagles (2-1)— McNabb returns to Philly to face team he led for decade; emotional night for him. Rivals split last 10 series games, with season series being swept in four of last five years. Redskins are 3-2 in last five visits here, but gave up 30 points in losing last two weeks, blowing 20-7 halftime lead over Texans, then getting pushed around some in last week’s upset loss at St Louis- they’ve been outscored 46-13 in second half so far this year. Philly scored 63 points in winning last two games behind mobile QB Vick (268 rush yards, 11-27 on 3rd down, no turnovers). Eagles are 9-5 as home favorite since 2008, but are just 1-6 since ’07 as home favorite in division games. Washington is 4-1-1 vs. spread in last six games as a road underdog.

Patriots (2-1) @ Dolphins (2-1)— Pats are 1-5 in last six road games, allowing 27.8 ppg; New England is 10-5 in last 15 series games, 4-3 in last seven visits here. if Sanchez averaged 9.1 YPA vs. Miami defense last week, what will Brady/Moss do? Patriots allowed 24-28-30 points in first three games (six TDs, nine FGs on 27 drives). Pats scored 38 points in both wins, 14 in their loss; only one of their TD drives is less than 72 yards. NE is now 1-6-1 vs. spread in last eight divisional games; Miami is 7-2 in their last nine. Dolphins lost field position battle in all three games, have yet to start drive in enemy territory. Patriots were 16-25 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-11 in loss. Miami allowing 35.8% of 3rd down plays to succeed. All three Patriot games went over the total.

**Udog** · 10-02-2010, 09:59 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 3

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

RAVENS: Baltimore will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 games this season, with all 3 road contests against teams with a winning record. The Ravens are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS so far this season. The Ravens have struggled offensively this year, scoring more than 10 PTS only once this year. Outside of WR Anquan Boldin, the rest of the offensive stars for Baltimore are having slow starts to the season. RB Ray Rice has only 270 total yards this season, and has been held scoreless as well. QB Joe Flacco has more INT's than TD's this year, 5 and 4 respectively. 3 of those TD's passes have been thrown to Boldin. Boldin has been a huge acquisition for the Ravens, as the team finally has a legit, impact receiver. Defense still rules the day for the Ravens, as Ray Lewis and company are the face of this franchise. Baltimore is allowing less than 14 PPG this season, quite impressive considering the amount of road games they've played. The Ravens have only allowed an average of 116.7 passing YPG, the best in the NFL. Baltimore has plenty of revenge on their minds, as they lost 2 of the 3 meetings SU last season.

Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 games against the AFC.
Under is 7-1-1 last 9 road games.

Key Injuries - DL Terrance Cody (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)

STEELERS: (-1.5, O/U 34.5) Pittsburgh is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. Certainly this team has outperformed the expectations placed on them without the services of QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are one resilient team though, and they are the perfect example of how one player isn't bigger than the team. The Steelers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year, with 2 of those games coming as the listed underdog. Pittsburgh is being led by their defense, as they have yet to allow more than 13 PTS to any of their opponents. Allowing only 11 PPG is always going to lead to a successful season. The Steelers rush defense is only allowing 59 YPG, 3rd fewest in the NFL this season. Offensively, RB Rashard Mendenhall has led the way for Pittsburgh. Mendenhall has rushed for for more than 110 YPG this season, including 2 TD's. The QB carousel has been filled with veterans, with Charlie Batch taking the latest turn. Batch was excellent against Tampa Bay, throwing for 3 TD's and having a QB rating over 100. The Steelers won 2 of the 3 meetings SU last year against the Ravens, and didn't lose ATS either.

Steelers are 3-8 ATS last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 18-7-1 last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - NT Chris Hoke (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 13

Chicago Bears at New York Giants [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

BEARS: Chicago is one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year, as they are one of the only undefeated teams left at 3-0 SU. The Bears are playing like the teams of their past, winning with defense and special teams play. The Bears have been the listed underdog in 2 of their 3 games, making their undefeated record that much more impressive. Chicago is coming off an emotional win on MNF last week, so they are playing on a short week tonight. QB Jay Cutler has been impressive to start this season by throwing for 870 YDS, the 5th most in the NFL. The ultimate success for Cutler is his touchdown to INT ration, which is at 6-2 so far this season. Offensive Mike Martz has done an amazing job with this offense, transforming them into an efficient passing offense. RB Matt Forte is having a strong start to this season, as he has more than 300 total yards and 3 TD's. Defensively, the Bears are only allowing 39.7 rushing YPG, by far the fewest in the NFL. Besides stopping the run, Chicago has been very opportunistic in causing turnovers as well. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road games overall.

Bears are 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

Key Injuries - DB Major Wright (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 24

GIANTS: (-3.5, O/U 43.5) New York is flat out struggling, as they are facing intense scrutiny from the New York media. The Giants are 1-2 both SU and ATS this season. Back to back blowout SU losses have many people wondering whether or not Coach Coughlin has lost his team. New York is looking to avoid their worst start to the season since 1997. Considering this team has started the past 2 seasons 4-0 SU, their start this season makes their organization and fans feel that the world is coming to an end. The Giants have 10 turnovers this season, the 2nd most in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has 6 interceptions this year, tied for the most in the NFL. Besides the INT's, Manning has completed 65% of his passes for 810 YDS. RB Ahmad Bradshaw has taken over sole responsibility for the rushing attack, as he has 250 rushing YDS this year with 2 TD's. Defensively, the Giants are allowing 28.3 PPG, 3rd worst in the NFL. The Giants have lost their past 5 games at home SU to the Bears, so there is plenty of revenge on the minds of New York. The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past 9 games against a team with a winning record.

Giants are 3-9 ATS last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games against the NFC.

Key Injuries - C Shaun O'Hara (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 10-02-2010, 10:00 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 3

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NFL Total Bias: Week 4 over/under picks
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"Never heard of him before in my life. I know who he is now."

That was Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs Monday morning on the Dan Patrick Show, talking about Cleveland running back Peyton Hillis, after the 6-foot-2, 250-pound wrecking ball smashed through the Ravens for 144 rushing yards and a touchdown while chipping in another 36 receiving yards.

Let’s just hope for the Baltimore coaching staff’s sake that Suggs had at least been alerted to Hillis’ 4.5 yards per carry average and two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. Now, maybe Suggs was just playing around. Maybe he knew of Hillis, but didn’t know that he was capable of that.

Either way, if he had even managed to glance at a highlight show leading up to Week 3’s game he would have seen Hillis looking like Mike Alstott with an extra gear, running downhill every time he touched the ball, carrying Chiefs and Buccaneers on his back.

I know I did – that’s why he was starting for my fantasy team. But the thing is, I wasn’t hoping for much. I figured that with Cleveland starting its backup quarterback and the Ravens allowing just 25 points through two weeks, I might get a lucky and Hillis would pick up a goal-line score. So I got a lot more than I bargained for - which was great for my fantasy team, but not so great for my weekend wagers.

Baltimore’s total indifference to Hillis helped the Browns hang around in a 24-17 loss, putting the game over the 36.5 total. There’s nothing more frustrating than one team taking another for granted and screwing up your wager. Maybe I’m a little more sensitive because I couldn’t pick a winner for the life of me anyway last week – 0-3 in this column and I don’t even want to talk about my pointspread picks.

I guess the moral of the story is watch out for these letdown spots. They can pop up at any time – even in an NFC North division battle.

Damn you, Ravens.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4, 44)

After the way Julius Peppers and the Chicago Bears got after Aaron Rodgers last week, I’m seriously concerned for Eli Manning’s well being this week. Giants tackles David Diehl and Kareem MacKenzie have blown six blocks combined over the first three games of the season, three of which lead to fumbles by Manning against the Colts.

Lovie Smith isn’t messing around with his defensive line this season. He benched former Pro-Bowler Tommie Harris last week and got some great pressure from the front four against the Packers. Even if the Giants managed to tighten up their line, they could be without wideout Marion Manningham and will have to content with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs flying around the secondary.

Pick: Under

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 44)

Bad spot here for the Panthers, coming into the Superdome against a Saints team coming off a frustrating overtime loss to the Atlanta Falcons. I think Drew Brees is going to put on an air show in this one. Lance Moore is stepping up with Reggie Bush out and even though it looks like running back Pierre Thomas will be a game-time decision with his ankle injury, it shouldn’t matter much against the Panthers.

New Orleans has played over the total in two of their three games so far and we haven’t seen anything close to the Saints’ best offensive effort.

Pick: Over

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (1, 46.5)

Patriots are pretty much a throw-only club at this point with their stable of mediocre running backs banged up and that’s not necessarily a bad thing the way they’re drawing up their passing plays. They’re getting the ball out quickly when they need to and Brady’s taking his deep shots when they’re there.

But look out for the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is quick enough to create chaos in the backfield (just ask Brett Favre) and should be able to force a couple of turnovers.

There is always a lot of weird stuff going on with these Pats-Dolphins games and while I hate taking the under in most Pats games, I think it’ll be a scrap that stays below the number.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 10-02-2010, 10:00 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 3

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3.5, 44)

For the second time in the first four weeks of the 2010 NFL season, the Giants will be featured on Sunday Night Football. With home-field advantage this time, they hope things go better for them than when they lost Manning Bowl II 38-14 at Indianapolis on September 19.

There was no improvement for the Giants last week. They fell at home 29-10 to Tennessee and are now 1-2 straight up and against the spread.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Bears couldn’t be feeling better about themselves than they are right now. Having taken care of Detroit 19-14, Dallas 27-20, and Green Bay 20-17 on Monday night, Chicago is the only undefeated team in the NFC and one of three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL along with Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Giants opened as 3-point favorites at most betting sites but the line has made its way up to 4 points. The total has also been on the rise, opening at 42.5 before climbing to 44.

INJURY REPORT

For the Bears, left tackle Chris Williams (hamstring) and safety Major Wright (hamstring) have been ruled out. Chicago has no other problems aside from those two and the players it has on injured reserve (including Hunter Hillenmeyer due to concussion symptoms).

It is a different story for the Giants, and it starts with the defensive line. Mathias Kiwanuka had not appeared on the injury list throughout the week, but was suddenly listed as out on Friday because of a bulging disc in his neck. That is especially bad news considering fellow defensive end Osi Umenyiora is questionable with a knee injury.

New York linebacker Keith Bulluck (toe) is doubtful and defensive tackle Rocky Bernard (back) is questionable. Bulluck tried to take part in Thursday’s practice but quickly had to pull himself out. Wide receiver Mario Manningham (concussion) is probable.

PRIOR ENGAGEMENTS

The recent history between Chicago and New York is not extensive. The two teams have faced each other only four times since the turn of the century and the head-to-head series is tied 2-2 in that span. Their most recent encounter came on Dec. 2, 2007 in Chicago.

The Bears—during the Rex Grossman era—led 16-7 in the fourth quarter behind three Robbie Gould field goals, but Eli Manning paved the way for a late comeback as the Giants prevailed 21-16.

BEAR-ING DOWN

While the Giants are reeling and the Bears are cruising, Chicago knows things can change in a hurry. Lovie Smith’s squad is not about to let its 3-0 start lead to overconfidence.

“Starting 3-0 with some of the teams that we've played in those environments, I think you can take a lot of positives from,” the team’s website quoted tight end Greg Olsen as saying. "But as we've all said, there are 13 more weeks. Everyone wants to be that first team to beat the undefeated. So we have to come out and be willing to take everyone's best shot. I think Sunday that that's pretty much going to be the way it goes."

Chicago has twice missed the playoffs following 3-0 starts, in 1978 (finished 7-9) and 1989 (finished 6-10).

“This thing is far from over,” added quarterback Jay Cutler, who is third in the NFL with a 109.7 passer rating and No. 1 in the league with a 9.56 average yards per attempt. “There are a few good teams that are 0-3 right now that still have a great chance of making the playoffs. We understand that.”

THE MAN-NING OF THE HOUR

Based on the way Chicago has halted ground games the first three weeks of the season, you can bet Manning and company will take to the air on Sunday. The Bears are limiting opponents to a stunning 39.7 rushing yards per game. Granted the Packers never ran the ball against them on Monday night, but they also silenced Detroit to the tune of 20 yards and limited the Cowboys to 36.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning has attempted 102 passes in three games while running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have combined for just 82 carries. Manning has thrown six interceptions, but he has also tallied 810 yards and five touchdowns.

“We’re throwing the ball well,” Manning told the New York Post. “Guys are getting open. The guys have a better understanding of what’s going on; what they’re doing. I can read their body. The receivers are playing with a purpose and understanding. Guys are playing fast, the offensive line is protecting well; I can step into my throws.”

Still, Manning knows he will have to go about his business methodically against the Bears. “They don’t like to give up the big plays,” he added. “They’re going to play a lot of two high safety and drop their linebackers deep and make you throw underneath quickly, and they’re going to come up and tackle. They want to make you have these 12-, 14-play drives.”

TRENDING TOPICS

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC. However, they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as visitors.

The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite, and 1-8 ATS in their last nine against teams with winning SU records.

The under is 8-3 in Chicago’s last 11 overall, but New York has leaned drastically toward the over of late. The over is 7-1 in the Giants’ last eight overall, 8-0 in their last eight against the NFC, and 5-1 in their last six home games.

Head-to-head, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

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**Udog** · 10-03-2010, 10:25 PM

NFL

Monday, October 4

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What Bettors Need to Know
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New England Patriots at Dolphins (-1, 47.5)

Current Odds

A few sportsbooks opened the line at pick’em last week, but the line quickly rose to make the Patriots -1 point favorites by the time most other sportsbooks posted a number.

New England has a 52 percent chance of winning the game straight-up as they are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline. This line might go up on Monday evening since 62 percent of the *********** consensus is backing the Patriots.

The over/under line opened around 46 total points last week and briefly dropped down to 45 points in some locations before rising back up to the current line of 47.5. The *********** consensus has 57 percent favoring the over, however the line might drop lower on Monday night due to the weather conditions.

The weather forecast is calling for 30 percent chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening, but only a 20 percent chance of showers at kickoff. Temperatures will be around 75 degrees with a light wind around 15 mph.

Dolphins hurtin’

Miami will be without defensive end Jared Odrick and guard John Jerry due to injuries. Linebacker Channing Crowder is listed as doubtful. He was limited in practice yesterday and has yet to play this season because of a groin injury.

Offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) and reserve cornerback Nolan Carroll (hand) are probable. Both participated in practice this past week.

Running Wounded

The Patriots will be without running back Fred Taylor, a reality they prepared for all last week. Taylor, who has been battling a toe injury for two weeks, missed his fourth consecutive practice and the team officially ruled him out shortly afterward.

This means Miami will see plenty of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who impressed last week with 98 yards rushing against the Bills after gaining just 41 total rushing yards combined against the Bengals and Jets. Green-Ellis is a third-year running back from the University of Mississippi and totaled only 114 rushing yards in 12 games last season.

The Patriots no longer have running back Laurence Maroney, who is now playing for the Denver Broncos and led the Patriots with 759 rushing yards last season. So far this year, Green-Ellis leads the team with 139 rushing yards, followed by the injured Fred Taylor who has 98 yards.

Patriot Defense

New England’s defense has been abysmal so far this season. In three games, the Patriots have allowed a whopping 82 points to some suspect offensive teams like the Bengals, Jets and Bills. Those three teams have scored a total of 174 points combined going into Sunday, which means almost half of their total points scored came against the Patriots.

Despite the criticism, the Patriots are still confident that their defense isn’t as weak as many believe and they expect to play much better on Monday night in Miami.

“We’re staying focused and doing our job,” cornerback Jonathan Wilhite said.

Jerod Mayo said everybody “has words to say,” but in the end, it all comes down to performance.

“Everybody’s accountable for themselves,” said Mayo, a linebacker and a captain. “We’re just not playing like we need to play. Hopefully Monday, we come out and perform. Big stage.”

Head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t seem too worried about his stop unit either.

“The defense has practiced well,” he said. “There are always game day challenges, but their work and preparation has been good. I don’t have any problems with that.”

The Sparano’s

Miami’s offense should be salivating at its opportunity to face the New England defense. The Dolphins have played much better at home under head coach Tony Sparano. Last year, the Dolphins scored 20 points or more in every home game while going over the total in seven of their eight home games.

And that trend continued last week when the Dolphins scored 23 points against the Jets in their home loss last Sunday night. That game also went over the total of 35.5 after a whopping 54 points were scored. Miami has scored 22 and 28 points at home against New England the last two meetings in South Florida.

The Grass is Greener

The Dolphins share Sun Life Stadium with the Florida Marlins. But the Marlins season wraps up on Sunday and the plans are for the grounds crew to cover up the dirt infield with fresh grass before Monday night’s game. If they can do it before the expected rain hits, it will be the first time since 1993 that the Dolphins won't have to play any home games on the infield dirt.

"If that happens, that would be super," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said.

But with inclement weather expected in Florida, Sparano practiced his team on the dirt and some mud this week in case the bad weather hits and the game is played in a slop of mud.

The Dolphins played a preseason game in that exact situation against the Buccaneers, a game that had just a total of 17 points scored.

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**Udog** · 10-03-2010, 10:26 PM

NFL

Monday, October 4

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Tips and Trends
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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

PATRIOTS: (-1.5, O/U 47.5) New England has put up 38 PTS in each of their victories this season. The Patriots are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS overall this year. As great as QB Tom Brady and his passing game is, the Patriots defense is in equally as poor. New England has given up at least 24 PTS in each game they've played this season. The Patriots have allowed an average of 27.3 PPG, the 5th worst in the NFL. Making matters worse is that the opponents New England has faced this year aren't known for their offenses. Brady and his offensive mates are going to have to carry this team all year long. Brady is 4th in the NFL in QB Rating at 109.1 and 2nd in the NFL is passing TD's with 8. Brady has a multitude of passing targets, including emerging TE Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez has 13 receptions for 211 YDS this season. WR's Randy Moss and Wes Welker have combined for 6 TD receptions this season. New England lost both games ATS against the Dolphins last season. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC East opponents. New England has played to the under in 7 of their past 10 road games overall.

Patriots are 19-9 ATS last 28 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - RB Fred Taylor (toe) is out.

Projected Score: 24

DOLPHINS: Miami gets their 2nd consecutive home game in primetime settings. The Dolphins would like a far different outcome this time, as they don't want to lose back to back home games. Miami is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season. The Dolphins won their only other game outright as the listed underdog, against the Vikings. With a SU win today, the Dolphins will have their best start to a season since 2003. Miami is only averaging 17.3 PPG, but their is hope that their offense is becoming more diverse. QB Chad Henne is coming off a very impressive game last week, and is likely to throw the ball early and often against this Patriots defense. WR Brandon Marshall has become close with Henne, as he's easily the go to option amongst the Dolphins receiver. Marshall had 10 catches for 166 YDS last week in the loss to the Jets. Defensively, the Dolphins have held their opponents to 17 PPG. After their disappointing game last week against the Jets, they will be eager to put that performance behind them. Miami typically enjoys playing in October, as they are 6-2 ATS in their past 8 games during this month. The Dolphins are also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against AFC East opponents.

Dolphins are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 13-5 last 18 Monday games.

Key Injuries - LB Channing Crowder (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (Side of the Day)

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (10/3 - 10/4)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (10/3 - 10/4)

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