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good luck!
I also have like Detroit and TB, but I am staying away because there are factors favoring their opponents as well.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Dallas +3 over Houston
If you follow BWP you know I always preach about line value and public perceptions swaying the line. Usually Dallas is overvalued and their line is inflated (a perfect example is last week versus Chicago), but now that they are 0-2 they actually have good line value here. Houston is for real this year, but they are coming off two huge games including a win versus division rival Indy and an OT win at Washington. I think they will be flat here and are in a perfect position for an L. Dallas will be able to exploit Houston's pass D that is allowing 12 yards/pass (27th in NFL). The Boys will be able to hold down the Texan's run attack, they only allow 3 yds/rush (7th in NFL). There is a strong trend favoring the Cowboys due to their big under dog loss last week (134-78-2 ATS). Get this one in early at +3 (the line may move). It is a 1* at 2.5.
1* Cinci -3 over Carolina
When the "Zona Bookie Killer" texted me on Monday that Cinci was too easy...I thought the same thing. When a game seems too easy, either it is or it is a sucker bet. I think this one is too easy. Cinci will be an above average team this year and are facing a rookie QB. I rarely bet road favorites but I like the Bengals here. I don't see the Panthers passing effectively with a rookie QB and I think the bengals D is better than it has looked. The Bengal's faced a great D in Balt last week, and will be able to move the ball easily against the Panther's D (30th in yards/pass).
1* Buffalo +14.5 over New England
A key rule to betting the NFL: no team is ever as good or as bad as they look. Don't get me wrong, the Bills are one of the worst teams in the league, but they are in a great situation as a big dog here. The Patriots are not the same Pats of yesteryear. Remember, lines are based on public perception. If this exact team were in different uniforms, the line would be 10. Their defense is slow and old and I think the Bills will be able to get their running game on a roll and get the cover. Fitzgerald will be starting at QB for the Bills and will be facing a bad Patriot D that is allowing 270 YPG in the air. The Bills D is in the middle of the pack (15th against the run and 16th against the pass) and should be able hold the Pats down to get the cover. There is a great trend playing on the Bills that is 8-36 ATS over the last 20 years.
I also have like Detroit and TB, but I am staying away because there are factors favoring their opponents as well.
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Dallas +3 over Houston
If you follow BWP you know I always preach about line value and public perceptions swaying the line. Usually Dallas is overvalued and their line is inflated (a perfect example is last week versus Chicago), but now that they are 0-2 they actually have good line value here. Houston is for real this year, but they are coming off two huge games including a win versus division rival Indy and an OT win at Washington. I think they will be flat here and are in a perfect position for an L. Dallas will be able to exploit Houston's pass D that is allowing 12 yards/pass (27th in NFL). The Boys will be able to hold down the Texan's run attack, they only allow 3 yds/rush (7th in NFL). There is a strong trend favoring the Cowboys due to their big under dog loss last week (134-78-2 ATS). Get this one in early at +3 (the line may move). It is a 1* at 2.5.
1* Cinci -3 over Carolina
When the "Zona Bookie Killer" texted me on Monday that Cinci was too easy...I thought the same thing. When a game seems too easy, either it is or it is a sucker bet. I think this one is too easy. Cinci will be an above average team this year and are facing a rookie QB. I rarely bet road favorites but I like the Bengals here. I don't see the Panthers passing effectively with a rookie QB and I think the bengals D is better than it has looked. The Bengal's faced a great D in Balt last week, and will be able to move the ball easily against the Panther's D (30th in yards/pass).
1* Buffalo +14.5 over New England
A key rule to betting the NFL: no team is ever as good or as bad as they look. Don't get me wrong, the Bills are one of the worst teams in the league, but they are in a great situation as a big dog here. The Patriots are not the same Pats of yesteryear. Remember, lines are based on public perception. If this exact team were in different uniforms, the line would be 10. Their defense is slow and old and I think the Bills will be able to get their running game on a roll and get the cover. Fitzgerald will be starting at QB for the Bills and will be facing a bad Patriot D that is allowing 270 YPG in the air. The Bills D is in the middle of the pack (15th against the run and 16th against the pass) and should be able hold the Pats down to get the cover. There is a great trend playing on the Bills that is 8-36 ATS over the last 20 years.
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