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**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 08:01 PM

Boise has large spread to cover Saturday night

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OREGON STATE BEAVERS (1-1)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (2-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Boise State -17.5, Total: 56.5

This could be the biggest test remaining on Boise State’s schedule as the Broncos play their first home game as hosts to Oregon State in ABC prime-time action. After a close loss to TCU in their opener, the Beavers recorded their first win of the season, 35-28 over a Louisville team penned as 20.5-point underdogs. Boise State had no trouble as 23-point favorites, and romped Wyoming 51-6, holding the Cowboys to 135 yards, including minus-21 rushing yards.

The key to Oregon State’s success is Jacquizz Rodgers, who rushed for 132 yards and scored three touchdowns against Louisville. His brother James Rodgers was held to 39 yards from scrimmage, but he did add 204 return yards to help OSU beat Louisville.

Boise State QB Kellen Moore has gained 585 yards through the air with five touchdowns in the two wins. He has a pair of talented receivers in Titus Young (10 rec, 174 yds, 1 TD) and Austin Pettis (9 rec, 161 yds, 3 TD). But Boise is also a great running team, led by RB Doug Martin has 188 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry. The Broncos rank 22nd in the nation with 221.5 rushing YPG.

OSU has not enjoyed the blue turf at Boise State, losing 53-34 in 2004 and 42-14 in 2006. But FoxSheets expects Oregon State to keep the game fairly close on Saturday:

Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BOISE ST) - excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR). (35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).

FoxSheets is also leaning Under the total.

Play Under - Any team against the total (BOISE ST) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins. (37-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (74%, +22.7 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 09:48 PM

Alabama favored by seven at *** Global

The No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will face a stern test on Saturday when the defending national champions travel to Arkansas to take on the upstart and 10th-ranked Razorbacks. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m. PT and the college football betting game can be seen on CBS TV.

Alabama is a 7-point favorite with a total of 55 at *** Global.

Alabama will not make it easy for Arkansas as the Tide is playing at peak capacity and enter this football betting game with a record of 3-0 both straight up and against the spread. The Crimson Tide destroyed Duke last week 62-13 as 23½-point road favorites as Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram returned to action after missing the first two games of the season.

Ingram rushed for a whopping 151 yards on nine carries and scored two touchdowns. Senior quarterback Greg McElroy looks very much the part of the savvy veteran that he is as he has completed 73% of his passes for 705 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception. Alabama is ranked fourth in total offense and ninth in total defense.

Arkansas is also 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread. The Razorbacks are coming off their biggest win in head coach Bobby Petrino’s three years on the job as they scored a thrilling 31-24 win at Georgia last week as 1½-point dogs. Junior quarterback Ryan Mallet connected with Greg Childs on a sideline pass and Childs broke free for a 40-yard game winning touchdown with 15 seconds remaining.

Mallett finished with 380 yards and three touchdowns and is considered to be the main reason why Arkansas may pull off the big upset in this one.

Alabama has won and covered their last two games against Arkansas. Last year the Tide blew out the Hogs 35-7 as 17½-point home college football betting favorites.

The Tide scored a 49-14 win in 2008 at Arkansas as 8-point chalk. The two teams have gone 'over' the total in three out of their last four matchups.

Alabama has covered nine out of its last 11 road games and four consecutive games as a favorite. The Tide has gotten the money in 12 out of the last 18 Southeastern Conference games with 12 out of the last 16 league games going 'under' the total.

Arkansas has covered six out of its last seven SEC games and nine out of the last 12 as an underdog. The Hogs have brought home the bacon in seven out of their last 10 games at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 09:48 PM

NCAAF Odds: Miami at Pitt on ESPN

Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt and Miami’s Randy Shannon have been friends for more than two decades. Wannstedt was Shannon’s defensive coordinator as a player at Miami and in the National Football League.

That friendship will be put on hold for about three hours on Thursday night when their teams clash at Heinz Field in a key non-conference showdown. Both teams have already lost once, the Hurricanes to Ohio State two weeks ago and the Panthers to Utah in their season opener. The loser Thursday falls off the college football map.

Most offshore books opened the Hurricanes as three-point college football betting favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 51.

Pitt and Miami used to be Big East brothers before the Canes’ bolted for the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Panthers only beat Miami once during their Big East days, also on a Thursday in 1997. This will be the first meeting since 2003.

The ground game has been the difference in the Hurricanes’ current six-game winning streak over Pittsburgh. Miami has rushed for 4.6 yards per carry and 17 touchdowns during the streak, while the Panthers have run for 2.9 per attempt and three scores.

Ohio State dominated against the Canes’ two weeks ago in Columbus, 36-24. But Miami was able to move the ball against the Buckeyes—the Canes’ only punted twice—though they weren’t able to capitalize in the red zone and made too many mistakes.

Miami dropped nine passes, including one in the end zone, another on the two-yard line, and another on the three-yard line.

Shannon zeroed in on tackling during practice this week after allowing the Buckeyes 414 yards of total offense, and 181 yards rushing.

Despite having a pair of talented backs, the Panthers have averaged only 125 rushing yards per game. They must find running room for Dion Lewis, last year’s Big East MVP and Rookie of the Year, who is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh has a new quarterback and youthful offensive line, which allows defenses to focus more on Lewis. Jonathan Baldwin is one of the nation’s most talented receivers, but Panthers signal-caller Tino Sunseri hasn’t been asked to throw much.

If Pitt is going to upset Miami, Sunseri has to get the ball to Baldwin, who has a six-inch height advantage on Miami cornerback Brandon Harris.

The Panthers led the nation in sacks last season, but they could struggle to maintain that kind of pass rush without injured defensive end Greg Romeus.

Both teams have struggled after taking a week off. The Hurricanes have come up short in 13 of 16 following a bye and Pittsburgh has dropped seven of 10 ATS.

Miami has thrived on Thursday, winning 13 of 14, but it has only cashed eight of 13 during that run.

The Hurricanes are a dismal 2-21 as favorites of less than 24 points off a SU loss as well.

Pitt is 1-10 SU against ranked non-conference opponents since 1996.

The Panthers have ‘covered’ five of six as dogs versus an opponent off a SU loss and seven of their last 10 at Heinz Field. The home team is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Five of the last six encounters have ended on the low side.

Pittsburgh has ducked ‘under’ in 10 of its last 14 home games and in 11 of 16 after a bye. Miami has strayed below the limit in seven straight against Big East foes and in 10 of 14 when toiling on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 09:50 PM

Week 4 football betting in the Lone Star State

With any luck at all I won't see a minute of college football this weekend. That might sound strange, especially leading into an article about a weekend chock-full of the sport.

Should Mother Nature bless me for several days later this week, I'll be picking up a case of fisherman's elbow while most of the weekend schedule is being played. The Texas Gulf Coast beckons, and I'm answering the call.

Three of the games on the Week 4 slate are intriguing to my Lone Star roots for one reason or another. All of them would appear to be dog-friendly matchups.

Good luck this weekend, whether you're betting or fishing.

TCU at SMU (+17½, 55)
Friday, Sept. 24 - 5 p.m. PT (ESPN)
Everybody grab your Bibles 'cause there's a showdown revival this Friday evening when the Cowtown Christians go to war with the Big D Methodists. You fine folks in Ft. Worth might want to plan on extra wait time at Angelo's Barbecue if you're going to stop there before making the short trek to Dallas.

Seriously, this could be an entertaining contest and might wind up being the only game I do catch a glimpse of or pick up on a radio while castin' from a dock or pier. TCU (3-0) is fourth in the AP and fifth in the latest USA Today Poll. Even if you account for media lunacy and coaches letting their assistants fill out the cards, that makes the Horned Frogs solid national title contenders...for now.

TCU hosted its neighbors from down South I-35 last weekend and popped Baylor by a 45-10 count. That was an easy 21½-point 'cover' to move the Frogs to 2-1 against the NCAAF betting spread. I'm rooting for TCU, but this is the first real road game of the season and I'm not about to disrespect a June Jones-coached team. Ever.

The Frogs have been the Mustangs' stallion for a while now, winning three straight and nine of 10. But SMU has cashed three of the last four, five of the last seven. If you're a trust fund child, play the game straight up and bank on a solid opportunity. Me? My parents were poor which is why I learned to fish.

Tulane at Houston (-20, 60½)
Saturday, Sept. 25 - 12:30 p.m. PT
Won't spend too much time on this one since the Cougars are coming off a loss and and will be without Case Keenum. When I first looked at the college football schedule back in the summer, this one was circled because of a great time I had in my younger days watching the two teams play. The site was the Houston Astrodome, and the game was the 1973 Bluebonnet Bowl.

Amidst a sea of Green Wave fans who got nasty with their tongues at the start, the final was Houston 47, Tulane 7. I'm not even a Cougars fan, and it was satisfying after hearing about how much Houston, both the university and the city, sucked.

It ain't gonna' be a 40-point difference at the end this time, though the college football oddsmakers still see it as a rout. The Cougars take a week off after this one, so there's no look-ahead danger. But without Keenum, who is expected to miss the rest of the year with an ACL injury, I've got no clue how UH head coach Kevin Sumlin will work his offense. I'll bite on the 'under.'

UCLA at Texas (-15½, 43)
Saturday, Sept. 25 - 12:30 p.m. PT (ABC)
The Longhorns and Bruins get together on a gridiron for just the third time and trust me, there are plenty of fans on both sides that remember the other two. College football record books certainly will never let Texas fans forget UCLA's last visit to Austin.

The two schools played a home-&-home in the late 90s with the Bruins on the turf at Memorial Field in the Lone Star capital on Sept. 13, 1997. The Longhorns were ranked 11th in the AP and favored by 11 points despite starting QB James Brown unavailable with a bum ankle. College football oddsmakers could have favored UCLA by 62 as it turned out and Texas still wouldn't have covered.

Cade McNown was the Bruins star with five TD passes, but the real star was the Longhorns' putrid play: eight turnovers, six of which led to UCLA touches. Final score: Bruins 66, 'Horns 3. It remains the worst loss in UT history, and ultimately led to the firing of John Mackovic and the hiring of current head coach Mack Brown.

UCLA swept that two-game series the next year with a 49-31 win and cover at home as eight-point spread favorites.

Texas (3-0) is seventh in the AP entering this renewal of the series, fourth on the coaches list. UCLA (1-2) is not ranked but that hasn't deterred early action on the Bruins with the line bet down a point or so from the 16-16½ openers.

The Longhorns come in off an important Big 12 road win in Lubbock last Saturday over Texas Tech, 24-14. Texas was a three-point favorite, jumped to a 14-0 lead, then shut the Red Raiders down after they tied the game entering the half. The 'Horns defense limited Tech to 144 total yards, negative-14 of that coming on the ground. Texas covered the spread for the first time this season in the win.

Rick Neuheisel and the Bruins come in off their first win and cover versus the high-flying Houston Cougars this past weekend. A 3½-point underdog, the Bruins muffled the Houston offense that managed just three points the first three quarters with Keenum injured in the first half. UCLA coasted to a 31-13 win in the end.

I'm impressed with Texas' defense, but for some reason don't expect that to translate to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are listing.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 09:55 PM

NCAAF Betting: Sooners at Cincinnati Bearcats

The Big East Conference football season hasn’t even begun, but already Cincinnati is in a crisis state.

The Bearcats had won 18 straight regular-season games and the last two Big East titles under Brian Kelly. But under first-year head coach Butch Jones the 1-2 Bearcats have been unimpressive in losing road games to Fresno State and North Carolina State this past Thursday night.

Jones knows his Bearcats will need to run the ball better and protect quarterback Zach Collaros, who has been sacked 15 times, if his team is going to stay in the game against eighth-ranked Oklahoma Saturday at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. Kickoff for this matchup is 3 p.m. (PT) on ESPN2. It’s the Sooners’ first road contest.

Oklahoma opened as a 17-point road favorite. Cincinnati has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games.

Fresno State defeated the Bearcats, 28-14, in Week 1 as 2 ½-point home favorites. The combined 42 points went ‘under’ the 57-point college football betting total. Cincinnati then rolled past overmatched Indiana State at home, 40-7, but failed to cover a 44-point spread before being dominated by North Carolina State in a 30-19 defeat as two-point underdogs.

The Bearcats committed eight penalties for 71 yards, fumbled five times (losing the ball only once, though) and didn’t score their last touchdown until there were 44 seconds left making the final score look more respectable than it really was. The combined 49 points went ‘under’ the 54 ½-point total.

“Obviously, we weren’t expecting these results,” Collaros was quoted as saying following the defeat. “Nobody hopes for this. We’re going to see what our team is made out of these next couple of weeks with this adversity. It’s going to test our character and test our togetherness, and we’ve just got to stick together. We’ll right the ship.”

Cincinnati lost its top receiver, Vidal Hazelton, for the season against Fresno when he suffered a knee injury. D.J. Woods, though, was a lone bright spot for the Bearcats against North Carolina State catching six passes for 146 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

Running back Darrin Williams, however, was held to only 24 yards on six carries. Williams has filled in the last two weeks for Isaiah Pead, who has been limited by a knee injury.

Oklahoma has won all three of its games, but is 1-2 ATS. The Sooners withstood 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to get past Air Force, 27-24, this past Saturday as 16 ½-point favorites. The combined 51 points dipped ‘under’ the 53-point total.

The Sooners gave up 351 yards on the ground to Air Force, which leads the nation in rushing. DeMarco Murray had another big game for the Sooners, rushing for 148 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Murray has already scored seven touchdowns this season.

After facing the option-oriented Falcons, the Sooners must focus their defense on dealing with Cincinnati’s spread offense. The Sooners did a great job two weeks ago slowing down Christian Ponder and Florida State’s passing attack winning 47-17. That was the Sooners’ lone cover as they were seven-point favorites. The combined 64 points went ‘over’ the 58 ½-point total.

Oklahoma had a tough time opening week before downing Utah State, 31-24, as 34-point favorites. The combined 55 points just fell ‘under’ the 56 ½-point total.

The Sooners are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 September games, but 2-6 ATS during their past eight non-conference matchups. The ‘under’ has cashed in 13 of Oklahoma’s last 17 games.

Cincinnati may be without tight end Ben Guidugli (ankle) and strong safety Drew Frey (head). Both were injured in the loss to North Carolina State.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 06:23 PM

Coaching trends to consider for Miami and Pittsburgh

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MIAMI HURRICANES (1-1)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (1-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:45 p.m. EDT, Line: Miami -4, Total: 50.5

Two well-rested and hungry teams meet for a Thursday night prime-time matchup in Pittsburgh. Miami is eager to get back on the field after its bye week followed a 36-24 loss at Ohio State. Pittsburgh also had a bye after beating FCS New Hampshire 38-16.

Both schools need their star players to step up in a big way on Thursday. Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris threw four interceptions in the loss to OSU and Pitt’s Dion Lewis has been in a sophomore slump with just 2.9 YPC this year. With an extra week of rest, both teams will be at nearly full strength for this game, but there are a couple key injuries. Miami senior RB Graig Cooper (2,229 career rushing yards) is out with a leg injury, and Pittsburgh is still missing star DE Greg Romeus after undergoing back surgery. Romeus, the reigning Big East co-Defensive Player of the Year, had eight sacks, three forced fumbles and 11 QB hurries last year.

Miami moved the football fairly well against a strong OSU defense, racking up 232 passing yards and 120 rushing yards on 4.3 YPC, but it only had one offensive touchdown. RB Damien Berry carried 16 times for 94 yards and WR Leonard Hankerson caught seven passes for 90 yards. The defense had no answer for Terrelle Pryor, allowing the Heisman hopeful to gain 346 total yards (233 passing, 113 rushing).

After a brilliant freshman campaign (1,799 rush yds, 18 total TD), Dion Lewis has had no room to run this year. He had 10 carries for just 27 yards against New Hampshire, but Pittsburgh tried to get him touches through the air and Lewis had five catches for 52 yards. Junior WR Jon Baldwin has been the standout for Pittsburgh with 10 catches for 171 yards and two scores in the two games this season.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have a lot of signature wins recently, going 1-10 against non-conference ranked opponents since 1996. Miami has won six straight meetings, but these former Big East foes haven’t faced each other since 2003. But the coaches know each other very well, with Miami’s Randy Shannon having played under Pittsburgh’s Dave Wannstedt at Miami and also in the NFL. These FoxSheets coaching trends favor Pittsburgh:

Shannon is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of MIAMI. The average score was MIAMI 24.7, OPPONENT 23.3.

Wannstedt is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.4, OPPONENT 17.6.

FoxSheets also shows a Miami trend that points towards the Under.

MIAMI is 27-10 UNDER (+16.0 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 27.5, OPPONENT 19.1 – (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 06:30 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/18/10 44-45-2 49.44% -2750 Detail
09/17/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/16/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/11/10 38-39-0 49.35% -2450 Detail
09/10/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
Totals 127-131-4 49.22% -8550

Thursday, September 23Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +3.5 500 *****
Pittsburgh - Over 49 500 *****

**jt4545** · 09-23-2010, 06:39 PM

Good luck and thanks star

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:01 PM

Miami, Fl. at Pittsburgh

Date: Thursday, September 23
Matchup: #19 Miami (Fla.) (1-1, 0-0 ACC) at Pittsburgh (1-1, 0-0 Big East)
TV: 7:30 PM ESPN
Venue: Heinz Field (grass)
Sports.com Line: Miami -4 O/U 55

Last week we witnessed the Cincinnati Bearcats, Big East Champions from 2009, get manhandled on the road in the ACC by the N.C. State Wolfpack. This week presents the opportunity for the Big East to get a measure of payback on the ACC as we head north to watch the Pittsburgh Panthers, play host to the Miami Hurricanes of the ACC.

For Pittsburgh, the preseason favorite to win the Big East, it has not been a good start to the season. The Panthers opened on the road at Utah, full of confidence with national ranking (#15) and a tailback (Dion Lewis) who was squarely in the Heisman conversation to start the year.

However, demonstrating how quickly things can turn, just two weeks later, Pittsburgh finds itself lacking confidence, searching for an identity and trying to keep players healthy and out of trouble.

It all started with a 27-24 overtime loss at Utah to open the season; certainly forgivable considering how tough the Utes are, especially at home. The Panthers then followed up that loss with a very uninspiring win over New Hampshire in which Lewis gained just 27 yards on 10 carries.

Then the personnel hits started.

First there was the news that the 2009 Big East co-defensive player of the year, defensive end Greg Romeus, will likely miss the rest of the season after having surgery to repair a disc in his lower back.

As Coach Dave Wannstedt was dealing with that loss he also had to deal with off-the-field matters as running back Jason Douglas and offensive lineman Keith Coleman were suspended indefinitely after being arrested for a DUI and aggravated assault respectively.

And so three weeks to the day after starting the season on a Thursday night in Utah, Pittsburgh must figure out a way to get Lewis (102 yards on 35 carries) on track, make up for the loss of their best defender, while also regaining the team’s focus after the off-the-field distractions.

You’ll excuse Coach Randy Shannon if he doesn’t have much sympathy for the plight of the Panthers. The head man for the University of Miami is hoping his team to get his team headed back in the right direction after a disheartening loss at Ohio State.

Clearly, a loss to the Buckeyes at the “Horseshoe” is nothing to hang your head about but that said, the way Miami squandered opportunity after opportunity in a 36-24 defeat to OSU has many in the program feeling a hangover. And no one has a bigger headache from the loss than QB Jacory Harris.

The Miami signal caller was intercepted four times, a career-high for the junior, in a game that saw the Hurricanes commit eight penalties. Now Shannon must get his team to quickly clean up their act and travel to face a Pittsburgh team who is equally motivated for a win. There will definitely be a sense of urgency in the air this Thursday night on both sidelines as neither team wants to dip below .500 for the year.

The Panthers will look to Lewis, and his backup Ray Graham, to drive the offense but that pair of sophomores will clearly need help from QB Tino Sunseri – who is starting just his third collegiate game –in order to move the ball and score points against a tough Miami defense.

For the Hurricanes it will be about eliminating mistakes. If Harris can eliminate mistakes, and get the ball to weapons such as WR’s Leonard Hankerson and LaRon Byrd, then Miami can pile up points at a fast clip. Already this season the Hurricanes have four touchdown drives that have lasted less than two minutes, including one against Ohio State.

There is a pretty decent chunk of history between these two schools that used to compete against one another in the Big East. Pittsburgh would be just fine erasing most of that history as Miami has owned the Panthers to a 20-9-1 tune since these two began playing in 1950.

Pittsburgh and Miami haven’t played since 2003 – the last year Miami was in the Big East – but the Hurricanes are on a six-game winning streak in this series. The most ominous stat for the home team this Thursday night might be that the Panthers are 1-10 against ranked, non-conference opponents since 1996.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:02 PM

TCU at SMU

Texas Christian (3-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) will take its unbeaten resume on the road Friday night to face upset-minded Southern Methodist.

Most betting shops are listing the Horned Frogs as 18-point favorites with a total of 55 ½. Gamblers can take the Mustangs on the money line for a lucrative plus-650 return (risk $100 to win $650).

SMU (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) opened the season with a 35-27 loss at Texas Tech, but the Mustangs hooked up their backers as 13-point underdogs. The 62 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 57-point total.

Since then, June Jones’ squad has won two straight games, including a 28-7 win over UAB in Week 2. SMU took the cash against the Blazers as an 11 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Zach Line ran for 122 yards and two touchdowns, while QB Kyle Padron threw for 145 yards and a pair of TDs without being intercepted. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 55-point tally.

In Week 3, SMU was never able to get ahead of the number in a 35-21 non-covering win over Washington St. as a 24-point home favorite. Padron certainly did his part, connecting on 19-of-34 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Aldrick Robinson enjoyed a banner day with four receptions for 111 yards and three TDs.

The 56 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 53-point tally thanks to a long TD pass from Cougars with just more than a minute remaining.

Gary Patterson’s team opened the season at Cowboys Stadium, beating Oregon St. 30-21 as a 13 1/2-point favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 453 yards and allowed just 255 from the Beavers, but OSU still took the cash from the underdog role. The 51 combined points inched ‘over’ the 49 ½-point total.

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton was picked off twice, but he did rush for a pair of scores and threw a TD pass to Jeremy Kerley. Ed Wesley carried the rushing load, gaining 134 yards on 17 carries and scoring on an eight-yard scamper.

In Week 2, the Horned Frogs dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 62-7 clubbing of Tennessee Tech in a non-lined affair. Some thought previously-unbeaten Baylor and its start QB Robert Griffin might give TCU a test last week.

That notion was short-lived, however, as Patterson’s bunch cruised to a 45-10 win as a 21-point home favorite. The 55 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55 ½-point total.

Dalton was nearly flawless, completing 21-of-23 passes for 267 yards and two TDs without being picked off. Wesley had 19 carries for 165 yards and a pair of scores, while Kerley had six catches for 69 yards and both TDs thrown by Dalton.

Defensively, TCU never let Griffin establish any sort of rhythm. Griffin was limited to 21 rushing yards on 14 attempts, and he completed 16-of-28 passes for 164 yards and one TD without an interception.

For the season, Dalton is completing 74.6 percent of his throws for 624 yards with a 4/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has three rushing TDs. Kerley has been his favorite target, hauling in 13 catches for 134 yards and three TDs. Kerley also has one rushing TD.

Wesley is 10th in the nation in rushing, carrying the ball 47 times for 384 yards and four TDs. That’s good for an eye-opening 8.2 yards-per-carry average.

Since throwing three interceptions in the season-opening loss at Texas Tech, SMU’s Padron has been nothing short of sensational. In the last two games, he has six TD passes without a pick to improve his TD/INT ratio to 8/3 for the year.

These in-state rivals play for the Iron Skillet, which has gone back to Ft. Worth the last three years. We should note, however, that SMU has covered the number in two of those three defeats. The Mustangs last beat TCU in 2005 by a 21-10 count as 13 ½-point home underdogs.

In last year’s meeting, SMU led 7-0 in the second quarter before giving up 25 unanswered points. The Horned Frogs eventually came away with a 39-14 triumph that wasn’t enough to hook up their backers as 28-point home favorites.

ESPN will have the telecast Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--TCU has won 17 of its last 18 games and 29 of its last 32. In nine of its last 10 wins, TCU has won by 27 points or more. The Horned Frogs have won 17 consecutive regular-season wins.

--TCU has a 7-3 spread record in its last 10 road ‘chalk’ situations.

--SMU went 2-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2009. The Mustangs beat East Carolina 28-21 as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, and dropped a 38-35 decision to Navy in overtime as seven-point puppies.

--SMU has taken the money in each of its last three games as a double-digit underdog. In fact, the Mustangs have won outright in two of those contests, including a 45-10 win over Nevada as 12-point ‘dogs at last year’s Hawaii Bowl. Also, Jones’ team thumped Tulsa 27-13 as a 14 ½-point road ‘dog last season.

--TCU senior strong safety Tyler Luttrell is ‘doubtful’ Friday with a hamstring injury. Luttrell had 35 tackles and an interception in ’09.

--With Houston losing its top two QBs (Case Keenum and Cotton Turner) to season-ending injuries in last week’s 31-13 loss at UCLA, the West Division of C-USA has become anyone’s for the taking. In other words, the door appears wide open for SMU, which is 1-0 in league play thanks to its win over UAB. The Mustangs and Tulsa become the likely favorites in the loop, and the Golden Hurricane has to come to Dallas on Oct. 9.

--Wake Forest has won back-to-back games at Doak Campbell Stadium by a combined score of 42-3. Nevertheless, the Demon Deacons are underdogs in the 18-19 point range for Saturday’s ACC showdown in Tallahassee.

--Kentucky is the nation's only team to play three games without committing a turnover. The Wildcats, who are 3-0 both SU and ATS, play at Florida this week as 14-point underdogs. UK hasn't beaten UF since 1986, losing 23 in a row to the Gators. The 'Cats haven't won at The Swamp since 1979.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:03 PM

Trends to Watch - Week 4

MIAMI-FLORIDA at PITT (Thursday, September 23)... Miami is 10-18 as chalk for Shannon since ‘07 (5-7 since LY) and just 2-5 last 7 as chalk away from home. Note Wannstedt 9-4 dog mark since ‘07. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.

TCU at SMU (Friday, September 24)... Road team has covered last 3 meetings. TCU a sparkling 42-21 overall vs. number since ‘05. Tech edge-TCU, based on recent June Jones dog marks.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN... NU 1-6 last 7 as chalk and just 7-12 vs. line at Evanston since ‘07, and Cats just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 hosting non-Big Ten FBS foes. Chips have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Big Ten foes, and are 16-8 as dog since ‘05. Tech edge-CMU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at PURDUE... Purdue just 7-15 as Ross-Ade chalk since ‘05, and only 2-6 vs. points last 8 hosting MAC teams. Tech edge-slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at MICHIGAN... Falcs now 11-2 as road dog since ‘07 after opening with a pair of covers in role TY. Falcs also 18-4 vs. line as straight visitor since ‘07. Tech edge-BGSU, based on team trends.

BALL STATE at IOWA... Ball was shocking 5-1 vs. line away LY and is 18-7 vs. spread its last 25 away from Muncie dating back to ‘06. Cards were 3-0 as DD road dog LY and are 10-3 in role since ‘05. Tech edge-Ball State, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE... Tressel has outstanding overall spread marks since late ‘04 (now 49-22 last 71 on board!). Tech edge-OSU, based on extended Tressel marks.

VIRGINIA TECH at BOSTON COLLEGE... Ugh! Beamer vs. Spaziani! Beamer has won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. BC, with two of those in ACC title game. This will be the sixth meeting between the teams the past four seasons! Note Beamer 18-7 last 25 as road chalk (3-2 LY) and 26-11 vs. number away since ‘04. Tech edge-slight to Beamer, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at PENN STATE... Al "Touch of" Golden did get the cover vs. Shades LY after failing the previous three seasons. Owls 14-7 as dog since ‘07 and 4-2 getting DD on road that span. Shades just 3-7 last 10 vs. line at home. Tech edge-Temple, based on team trends.

NC STATE at GEORGIA TECH... O’Brien has been a good dog coach for most of his career (18-10 in role at NCS). Paul Johnson just just 1-4 as home chalk since LY. Tech edge-slight to NCS, based on O’Brien’s extended dog mark.

WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE… Noles had lost 3 in a row and failed to cover 5 straight vs. Wake prior to LY’s 41-28 win at Winston-Salem. FSU 108 vs. line last 9 vs. FBS foes at Doak Campbell. Tech edge-Grobe, based on team trends.

ARMY at DUKE... Cutcliffe 3-1 as chalk since ‘08 and 12-8 overall vs. spread since taking over Duke in ‘08. Ellerson just 5-9 vs. spread since LY. Tech edge-slight to Duke, based on team trends.

BUFFALO at UCONN... Rematch of ‘08 bowl blowout for UConn. Note Edsall now 20-10 his last 30 as chalk and Huskies 21-9 vs. line their last 30 at the Rentsch. These teams have met five times since ‘02 with Huskies winning and covering all. Tech edge-UConn, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA at MISSISSIPPI STATE... No rest for Richt, now on 8-16 spread slide since mid ‘08. UGa only 4-7-1 vs. number last 12 vs. SEC foes away from Athens. Tech edge-MSU, based on recent Richt negatives.

FRESNO STATE at OLE MISS... Bulldogs 8-3 as road dog since ‘07 and 22-14 in role since 2000. FSU 14-6 vs. spread last 20 as non-WAC visitor. Houston Nutt 0-3 vs. line TY. Tech edge-Fresno, based on Pat Hill extended road dog numbers.

MIAMI-OHIO at MISSOURI... Note Mizzou just 5-17 vs. spread last 22 vs. FBS-level foes, and 2-7 last 9 as home chalk vs. FBS opposition. RedHawks, now 7-4 their last 11 on board after losing first 4 out of gate LY. Tech edge-Miami-O, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at WYOMING... Calhoun 8-4 vs. line on MWC road since ‘07, and note 13-4 AFA chalk mark vs. FBS-level foes since Calhoun arrived, and 5-1 as road chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Force, based on team trends.

UCF at KANSAS STATE... Bill Snyder has now covered 7 of his last 8 vs. FBS-level foes, and Cats now 4-1 last 5 vs. line against FBS at Manhattan. O’Leary, however, was 5-0 vs. line as visitor LY (not counting bowl) and is 8-3 as visiting dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UCF, based on team trends.

TULANE at HOUSTON... UH has been a "Wave-crasher" lately, winning and covering last 7 vs. Tulane. Wave not closer than 21 the past 5 years vs. Cougs. Tech edge-UH, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA at CINCINNATI (at Paul Brown Stadium)... Note OU only 1-5 vs. line last 6 away from Norman. Cincy, however, was just 1-5 its last 6 vs. line at home for Brian Kelly vs. FBS foes. Tech edge-slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at ARKANSAS... Nick Saban has won big and covered last two while crushing Petrino. Bama 6-1 vs. line away since LY (all as chalk) and now 12-4 vs. spread since LY. Tech edge-slight to Bama, based on recent series trends.

OREGON STATE at BOISE STATE... Mike Riley a solid 19-9 vs. line last 28 away from Corvallis and 12-3 his last 15 as road underdog, but he has lost big in his two trips to Boise in 2004 & ‘06. Note Riley’ September spread mark of 7-20, however. Boise now on 23-9 spread run last 32 on board, and 37-16 as blue carpet chalk since 2000. Tech edge-Boise, based on blue carpet marks.

STANFORD at NOTRE DAME... Irish have covered last 3 and 7 of last 9 vs. Tree, although Stanford won SU on Farm LY. Irish 9-21 their last 30 on line at home (0-1-1 for Brian Kelly). Harbaugh on 16-8 spread run last 24 vs. FBS foes. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on recent team trends.

CAL at ARIZONA... Pronounced home trends in this series, with host winning and covering last 5 meetings. Tedford just 8-16 vs. line last 24 on road, while Mike Stoops now 15-4 vs. number last 19 at Tucson. Tech edge-UA, based on series and team trends.

UCLA at TEXAS... Rick Neuheisel’s once shiny dog mark now a very dull 4-10 its last 14 in role. Mack, however, just 4-9 his last 13 laying DDs. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on team trends.

IDAHO at COLORADO STATE... Things going from bad to worse for CSU, losers of 11 in a row SU and no covers last 9 on board. Tech edge-Idaho, based on CSU negatives.

NEVADA at BYU... Cougs just 2-8 vs. line their last 10 at Provo. Tech edge-slight to Nevada, based on recent BYU home woes.

SOUTHERN CAL at WASHINGTON STATE... Kiffin 0-3 vs. line at SC and Trojans now just 4-12 last 16 and 6-15 last 21 on board. Trojans 2-10 their last 12 as road chalk and just 1-6 last 7 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to WSU, based on recent SC woes.

NEW MEXICO STATE at KANSAS... Ugh! DeWayne Walker was 5-2 vs. line away LY, all of those as DD dog. Ags only 1-4 as dog of 20 or more for Walker, however. Mangino had been a pretty good favorite until things began to unravel LY, and Jayhawks now no covers last 5 as chalk after NDSU debacle. Turner Gill only 4-8 as home chalk with Buffalo 2007-’09 (he’s now 4-9 last 13 as home chalk overall). Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at FLORIDA... UK now six straight covers away from home in reg. season (1-0 TY). Cats had covered 5 straight in series until 2007, with Urban Meyer winning and covering the last three. Tech edge-UK, based on recent trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at LA TECH... Bulldogs 6-1 as home dog since ‘07. USM 1-3 as road chalk LY. Tech edge-LT, based on team trends.

UAB at TENNESSEE... Derek Dooley now 8-4 vs. line as favorite since ‘07 (1-0 at UT). UAB just 1-6 as road dog since LY. Tech edge-slight to UT, based on team trends.

AKRON at INDIANA... IU in somewhat rare chalk role but Hoosiers 6-2 as Bloomington favorite since ‘05. Zips on 3-13 spread run dating to late ‘08. Tech edge-IU, based on Akron negatives.

OHIO at MARSHALL... Note Solich 9-3 dog mark since ‘07. Tech edge-Solich, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at AUBURN... Spurrier was 6-2 as dog LY and Gamecocks 9-4 vs. line last 13 in reg. season. Auburn just 7-16 as chalk since ‘07 (3-7 for Chizik since LTY). Tech edge-SC, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at UTAH... Spartans 2-17 their last 18 on board (counting LY at Fresno as a loss). This game vs. Utes in ‘09 was one of those two covers for SJSU! Tech edge-slight to Utah, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE... Utah State is 21-10 vs. line last 31 on board, and are on 8-0 spread run as road dog. Aztecs 1-4 as chalk vs. FBS foes for Hoke, 0-3 in role at Qualcomm. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at LSU... Les Miles actually 10-3 vs. line hosting non-SEC foes since 2005, complete opposite of troubles at home vs. SEC. Stewart 3-1 as dog with WVU, although he’s just 10-16 overall vs. spread since ‘08. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at RICE... Owls 13-7 as home dog since ‘05 and 21-8 in role since 2000. Note Baylor 4-0 as chalk vs. FBS foes with Griffin at QB. Tech edge-slight to Rice, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at RUTGERS... Heels humbled Rutgers 44-12 on road in ‘08, and Butch is now 13-5 his last 18 as "short" since late ‘07. Schiano just 1-6 vs. line at home since LY. Tech edge-UNC, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA... NIU 8-2 vs. line last 10 visiting Big Ten since ‘01. Huskies also 7-2 vs. points since ‘05 as non-MAC visitor. Gophers are 4-8 as home chalk for Brewster since ‘07. Tech edge-NIU, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at UTEP... Memphis 1-8 vs. line last 9 away from Liberty Bowl. Price just 3-12 his last 15 as chalk (2-8 last 10 laying points at Sun Bowl). Mike Price also 8-23 last 31 in chalk role. Tech edge-slight to Memphis, based on UTEP woes.

NEW MEXICO at UNLV... Rebels have won and covered last 2 in series but they’re still just 4-8 as chalk (all Sanford numbers) since ‘07. Locksley 0-7 vs. line in first 4 games of season since LY. Tech edge-slight to UNLV, based on team trends.

OREGON at ARIZONA STATE... Ducks have dominated lately, winning and covering last 5 vs. ASU, all wins by 12 or more. Tech edge-OU, based on series trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TROY... Troy has won and covered last 3 meetings. Red Wolves no covers last 6 vs. Belt foes and just 4-17 vs. number last 21 on board. Troy has covered last 6 as Belt home chalk. Tech edge-Troy, based on team and series trends.

MTSU at ULL... ULL has covered 5 of last 7 meetings but MTSU got Cajuns LY at Murfreesboro. Note MTSU has covered its last 9 as Belt chalk. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC... FAU has won and covered last 4 meetings. Todd Dodge 6-12 vs. line from 4th game onward the past two seasons. Tech edge-FAU, based on series trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at SOUTH FLORIDA... WKU 0-3 vs. line for Taggart. Tech edge-slight to USF, based on team trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at MARYLAND... Ralph 1-7 as chalk vs. FBS foes since ‘07, 3-15 since ‘05. Ralph failed to cover in ‘06 and ‘07 vs. FIU. Tech edge-FIU, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:05 PM

BCS Busters

What next? Dick Button and Peggy Fleming joining the Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Lee Corso on ESPN College Game Day?

Forgive us that bit of speculation, but based upon some of the new terminology in college football, we’re not sure it isn’t appropriate. That’s because the new buzz words in college football are "style points," something usually more associated with figure skating, or perhaps synchronized swimming. But nowadays, "style points" have become part of gridiron lexicon.

The reason? Absent of a true playoff system, teams contending for a spot in the BCS and national title game are compelled to impress the pollsters however possible. Mere wins are not going to be enough for some of the squads, especially those in the "BCS Buster" category. They’re going to have to score wins impressively whenever possible. And if that means running up the scores, so be it.

And therein lies another of the complaints about the current, wholly unsatisfactory BCS system, where teams can be compelled to humiliate opposition as they seek to sway the opinions of the pollsters. Not that this is a recent phenomenon in college football; many noteworthy teams from the past, long before the current BCS system, were also inclined to run up scores in order to curry favor with the voters. After all, it was the pollsters who would almost always decide the champions in those days. And even today, it’s the polls that mostly decide which two teams end up in the BCS title game.

But nowadays, "style points" seem to be more important than ever. Especially with those aforementioned "BCS Busters" who must first get to the top of that queue to have a shot at even entering the big, bad BCS. Getting from there to the national championship game will likely require an even greater reliance upon those style points.

A quick glimpse at last week’s college results confirms how style points are distorting the scorelines. Last Saturday, the three top BCS Busters made sure that they took care of business, convincingly. Boise State jumped on Wyoming from the get-go at Laramie, bolting to a 34-0 lead by halftime en route to a 51-6 romp over a Cowboy team that won a bowl game last December. The Broncos didn’t seem to ease up in the second half, either, en route to outgaining Wyo by a whopping 648-135 while recording 32 first downs to Wyo’s 7. Meanwhile, TCU jumped all over Baylor at Fort Worth, scoring TDs on its first five possessions and rolling to a 45-10 rout over what appeared to be a representative Bears outfit. TCU QB Andy Dalton was still in the game in the 4th Q, throwing a 9-yard TD pass to star WR Jeremy Kerley for the Frogs’ final points. Meanwhile, at Albuquerque, Utah rolled up the score on hapless New Mexico, 56-14, although in the Utes’ case they seemed to be scoring TDs inadvertently in the second half, so bad were the Lobos. Utah scored 3 TDs in a 2:40 span early in the 3rd quarter, with a 35-yard interception return by Matt Martinez and a 73-yard punt return by Shaky "Mr. Excitement" Smithson included in the eruption.

What does this all mean, in a practical sense, for handicappers? Simply, don’t be afraid to lay a lot of lumber if you have to with some of these potential BCS busters, many of whom have recorded stellar big chalk marks in recent years. Boise is now 12-4-1 its last 17 when laying 20 points or more. TCU is 20-5 laying double digits since 2006. Utah is 13-6 as double-digit chalk since 2007. BCS Buster wannabe (and maybe this is the year) Nevada is 15-5 as double-digit chalk since 2004.

Laying big points with a serious BCS Buster? No different than expecting a perfect triple lutz from a Gold Medal winner, as Dick Button or Scott Hamilton might say.

HOUSTON...YOU’VE GOT A PROBLEM

For all of the fun the likes of Boise, TCU, and Utah seemed to have last weekend, it was just the opposite for the Houston Cougars, who rolled into Pasadena for an intersectional battle vs. a reeling UCLA squad, confident that their undefeated start to the season would reach three games. Instead, Houston was dealt a triple dose of bad at the Rose Bowl by the aroused Bruins, who physically took apart the Cougs, 31-13, and maimed Houston’s QBs in the process.

The decorated sr. signal-caller Case Keenum, a peripheral Heisman threat and on course to challenge the NCAA career passing yardage record currently held by Hawaii’s Timmy Chang, is instead lost for the season after tearing his ACL while trying to make a tackle following an interception in the second quarter. If that wasn’t bad enough, backup Cotton Turner was also KO’d later in the game with a broken collarbone. Both are done for the season. True freshman Terrance Broadway, a highly-touted Baton Rouge product (and the 5th rated dual-purpose threat recruit in the nation last year), will get the starting call for Saturday’s game against Tulane. Word around C-USA is that Broadway, who led UH to ten points late in the second half at the Rose Bowl, could be a future star for the Cougs, although it will not be realistic to expect him to produce Keenum-like numbers off the bat. Another true frosh, David Piland, from Metroplex football factory Southlake Carroll, could also compete for snaps, although Broadway is getting the initial nod from HC Kevin Sumlin.

BCS BUSTER TOP TEN

Following are our latest "BCS Buster" rankings, with straight-up and pointspread records listed, as well as the next opponent.

1-BOISE STATE (2-0, 2-0)...The "beat" (literally) goes on for the Broncos, who realize that putting a hurting on visiting Oregon State on Saturday night will be an important "style points" test that could come in handy when the BCS tallies up all of its votes in early December. The Beavers are the last "Big Six" conference foe to face the Broncos, at least until a bowl game. And note that OSU has been creamed, 53-34 (2004) and 42-14 (2006), in its last two games on the blue carpet. Mike Riley, you’ve been forewarned. Hosts Oregon State this Saturday

2-TCU (3-0, 2-1)... It’s ironic that Oregon State could have a lot to do with the BCS Buster equation, because if Boise has more trouble vs. the Beavers than TCU experienced vs. OSU back on opening day (a 30-21 Frogs win at Jerry World), that might be what voters need to justify leaping the Frogs past the Broncos in the BCS queue. If TCU is still behind Boise in the polls after this week, however, the Frogs are probably going to need someone from the WAC (which top to bottom looks a bit stronger than the Mountain West this season) to put a real scare into Boise to climb over the Broncos in the polls. Assuming both remain unbeaten, that is. At SMU this Friday

3-UTAH (3-0, 2-1)... Lurking just off the pace remain the Utes, who get what looks to be another breather this week (San Jose State) after having UNLV and New Mexico served to them on a platter the past two Saturdays. HC Kyle Whittingham has seen no reason to rush QB Jordan Wynn, recuperating from a right thumb injury, back into the lineup with the capable Terrance Cain (now 9-1 as a starter) filling in admirably. Meanwhile, the colorful Shaky Smithson is emerging as one of the nation’s best homerun threats, with another punt return TD and long TD reception last week vs. the Lobos. Looking ahead, the Utes’ season likely gets defined by a three-game stretch beginning October 30 (at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame). Run that gauntlet, and the Utes are very much in the BCS picture. Hosts San Jose State this Saturday

4-NEVADA (3-0, 2-1)... That was a big "hump" win for the Wolf Pack over Cal last Friday, especially with Nevada having lost eight in a row vs. BCS-conference opposition since a win over Northwestern at Reno back in 2006. But it was the manner of victory that really opened some eyes, with Colin Kaepernick and Chris Ault’s Pistol complemented by a big-play defense that recorded the play of the night when DB Marlon Johnson took back a Kevin Riley pass 65 yards for a score that put the Pack ahead 31-21 and restored momentum that seemed to have swing to Cal. The 52-31 final means the Pack maintains scoring a robust 51 ppg, and sets up a collision course with Boise on Thanksgiving weekend should Nevada knock off BYU this week. At BYU this Saturday

5-AIR FORCE (2-1, 2-1)... The Falcs did nothing to hurt their reputation by pushing Oklahoma to the limit last Saturday at Norman. The Sooners were forced to hold on for dear life in the final minutes of a 27-24 win that saw the Force outgain OU 458-367 and gain a healthy 5.6 ypc while recording 351 rushing yards, the most ever yielded by a Bob Stoops-coached Sooner team. Although the Sooners seemed happy to escape with their lives, Falcon HC Troy Calhoun was not into moral victories. "Our guys," said, the coach, "are not interested in close." At Wyoming this Saturday

6-FRESNO STATE (2-0, 2-0)... The Bulldogs appear back to their ornery selves, following up their opening win over Cincinnati with last week’s 41-24 win at Utah State, a chic upset pick by many heading into that game at Logan. Which, to be fair, was a bit closer than the final score, which was recorded after Fresno outscored the Utags 17-0 in the 4th Q. Still, HC Pat Hill has to be pleased with a "D" that kept livewire USU QB Diondre Borel in check, as well as soph RB A.J. Ellis, who cruised for 165 YR and 3 TDs in the win. At Ole Miss this Saturday

7-NAVY (2-1, 1-2)... Did QB Ricky Dobbs get a call from President Obama, advising him to hand off the ball a bit more, and maybe try a pass now and then? Or maybe it was HC Ken Niumatalolo who got through to Dobbs, who despite still leading Navy in carries (19) at La Tech, finally made better use of the other elements in the Mid option. Such as FB Vince Murray, who carried 14 times and softened up the Bulldog middle for Dobbs and the slippery Geee Greene (87 YR on just 6 carries) to burn La Tech on the flanks, while setting up the play-action element of the Mids’ underused aerial game. Dobbs also passed for a career-best 219 yards in the Mids’ 37-23 win at Ruston, although it was the ground element of the option that wore down the Bulldogs in the second half. At Air Force October 2

8-SMU (2-1, 2-1)... Now that Houston is down to a freshman QB, the door could be opening for the Mustangs in C-USA. And this Friday provides a chance for HC June Jones to get the signature win that could put the Mustangs back on the map when hosting Metroplex rival TCU at Ford Stadium. It’s a tall task, but QB Kyle Padron could make things exciting. Hosts TCU this Friday

9-SOUTHERN MISS (2-1, 1-2)... Another C-USA rep that could also benefit from Houston’s misfortune is Southern Miss, which seems to have rebounded quite smartly from its opening loss at South Carolina with a pair of wins, including an impressive 31-16 whipping of Big XII Kansas at Hattiesburg last Friday night. HC Larry Fedora has to be pleased with the progress of QB Austin Davis, almost flawless (19 of 24 passing, plus 61 YR) vs. the Jayahwks, as well as his special teams that recorded a TD on a blocked punt. At La Tech this Saturday

10-TEMPLE (3-0, 2-1)... Is that Rod Blagojevich coaching the Owls? No, but the resemblance to HC Al "Touch of" Golden is a bit uncanny. And there is nothing fraudulent about the Owls coach, who continues to steward one of the more unlikely renaissance stories in the country with the formerly downtrodden Owls, now 3-0 after a landmark win over UConn last week at the Linc. Remember, the Huskies are considered a legit Big East contender and had dominated Temple in recent years. But the Owl defense made the play of the day when stripping UConn RB Jordan Todman, with DE Adrian Robinson scooping up the fumble and rumbling 25 yards to the go-ahead TD with 9 minutes left. At Penn State this Saturday

Knocking on the door: Houston, UCF, Idaho

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:06 PM

Beware of Let Downs - Week 4

One of the things that makes college football different than what you see in the NFL is how emotions play a part in the outcome. Now there is no mistaking that talent is the most important piece in how teams will come out on top. Yet you see programs year after year fall apart right after picking up a big win or suffering a crushing defeat.

There’s plenty of proof to teams coming down hard in recent history. Last year the Trojans fell at Washington a week after beating Ohio State in Columbus. And the Buckeyes found themselves in a funk after an overtime loss at Northwestern a few seasons back.

This past weekend’s close calls and big wins are leading into some prime situations for us to fade a few schools.

No Luck for the Irish…

I seriously doubt that I’m the only person that was banking on Notre Dame on winning last Saturday night in East Lansing against the Spartans. The Fighting Irish took a 31-28 lead in overtime and had Michigan State down to a 4th-and-13 at the 28-yard line. Everything was set for Brian Kelly’s club to win in primetime. Yet the officials decided to an expired play clock as Sparty wound up with a Charlie Gantt touchdown on Aaron Bates’ throw to win 34-31. For those playing along at home, that makes two straight crushing losses the Irish have had in as many weeks.

Those setbacks have helped the Irish find themselves as 4 ½-point home underdogs against Stanford.

All the Cardinal have done this season is outscore their opponents by a combined score of 155-41. And these weren’t games against pushovers…well…they were playing UCLA and Wake Forest, which aren’t exactly the stalwarts of their respective leagues.

Bettors wanting to play on Notre Dame in this game do have something to go on as they’ve gone 1-1 straight up and 2-0 against the spread in its last two games as a home pup. Plus, the Irish are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings with Stanford. However, Brian Kelly’ team has gone 5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven home tests against the Pac-10.

Relaxing the ‘Pack…

Out of all the surprising results from last week, none was bigger to me was the Wolf Pack’s 52-31 destruction of California. You’ll get that kind of result when Colin Kaepernick throws for 181 yards and two touchdowns with 148 rushing yards and another three scores.

So you’d think that Nevada would get a lot of love from the sportsbooks this weekend, but they are listed as a five-point road “chalk” against the Cougars.

Could BYU’s reputation have something to do with the line being so small? That is no doubt a possibility. However, the Cougs are coming off of losses at Air Force and at Florida State that make them look like they should be sponsored by Chico’s Bail Bonds.

Gamblers will no doubt look to the fact that BYU is still very green on offense when making their plays at the window. It also doesn’t hurt that Nevada is 1-1 SU and ATS over the last five years as a road favorite against teams out of the Mountain West, losing the last . But we must temper our enthusiasm with the fact the Wolf Pack battles came against Colorado State and UNLV, which doesn’t exactly make everyone jump and say “Huzzah!” Maybe it would make some say “Lightning Bolt,” but not “Huzzah!”

They Might Bear Down…

Not many people saw it over here on the East Coast, but Arizona put together a mighty fine 34-27 win over the Hawkeyes. What makes this win most impressive for Mike Stoops and Company fought back in this battle. The Wildcats found itself tied at 27-27 after giving away a 27-7 halftime lead. But their defense was up to the task by sacking Ricky Stanzi on four straight plays (one didn’t count due to an Iowa penalty) to seal the deal.

Now the ‘Cats have to figure out a way to get up for California as 6 ½-point home favorites this Saturday. The Golden Bears are in a funky spot here as well after their aforementioned beating at the hands of Nevada last Friday night.

The recent information of the series between these Pac-10 rivals does suggest that Arizona is the right play as the home team is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Yet the Golden Bears have won and covered the number in their last two games as the league opener for ‘Zona. Also, Cal has gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in its past three games as a conference road pup.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 08:08 PM

College Betting Notes

The third week of college football season was another session of win some and lose some for the Las Vegas sportsbooks, which in a way is a good thing for everyone involved. The books don’t get too fat with large wins while the players were able to wet their beaks a little as well, which keeps the money churning through the windows.
While the overall college win is low for just about everyone around Las Vegas, the volume has been reported as either flat or above 2009 at the same juncture making the action in the books on Saturday one of the only places in the casino with year over year increases.

Because of the gains in handle, Sportsbook Directors are getting passed on the wrath of their bosses. During weekly executive meetings with the hotel and casino department directors, the General Manager is always asking for ways to increase handle and drop for each of the areas. Knowing that the economic climate is what it is, it still doesn’t stop the bosses from trying to get the most out of everyone and keep their marketing minds working.

The meeting goes something like this with the GM using a voice similar to Seinfeld‘s Steinbrenner , “Joe, in table games, what are doing to create business and why are your numbers so low, Fix it! Mary from slots, your last two promotions tanked. Our drop is the worst ever. The slot Director form the Movie Casino could do better. Fix it, or you’ll have the same fate as him. Bill from sports, keep it up, Jerry from Poker….”

Early College Lines

The Wynn Las Vegas has been posting their college football lines by 3:00 p.m. PDT on Sunday’s, the earliest lines available around the world, yes, the entire world. Wynn sports book Director Johnny Avello and his staff has to do some serious number crunching to get things right by sticking their neck out early. I know first hand that they have one of the sharpest college football minds in town with supervisor Doug Casteneda, who was Joe Lupo and Bob Scucci’s right hand man when the old Stardust was the first to put lines up. His knowledge and past line-making experience should make the venture a success.

Quick Hits from the Pac 10

The Pac 10 took some early lumps last week with Cal getting crushed by Nevada and Washington getting thumped at home by Nebraska, but made up for the soured opinions of the conference later with impressive efforts, even in a loss. Arizona State lost by one (20-19) at No. 11 Wisconsin and then the late-night action saw three separate conferences get smoked by the Pac 10. The Big 10’s No. 18 Iowa got beat at Arizona, 34-27. Conference USA‘s top team, Houston, lost 31-13 at UCLA and one of the ACC’s three remaining undefeated team’s, Wake Forest, let Stanford score 68 points. In this weeks AP poll the Pac-10 has five teams ranked including USC and Oregon State.

No. 5 Oregon has piled up 189 points in their three games thus far and currently lead the conference’s quest for national respect, but their Oct. 2 game with Stanford is going to be a major stumbling block. Stanford has started the season 3-0 for the first time since 2001 and has put up 155 points in their three games. Should Stanford get by Notre Dame, as they should, the clash in Eugene will be one heck of a game. I’ll take Stanford right now plus the points. I think they are one of the best teams in college football capable of beating anyone.

The Houston Cougars paid a steep price in their 31-13 loss to UCLA Saturday night. Not only did the loss to an 0-2 team knock them out of them Top 25, but their top two quarterbacks were knocked out as well leaving them with a third stringer for their game against Tulane this week. Case Keenum injured his knee while chasing one of his interceptions and his back-up, Cotton Turner, injured his shoulder while filling in.

We finally found a team at UNLV that we should be able to beat in the New Mexico Lobos. To show just how bad New Mexico is, the 0-3 UNLV Rebels were posted as 11 ½-point home favorites on the early Wynn (the casino, not the Indians pitcher from the 50’s) line on Sunday. The Rebels may be short on talent, but they do play with heart. The Rebels should play with some anger and a thirst to finally do some pounding on someone. Look for the Rebels to win by 20.

Player of the Week

Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden threw for 409 yards and 6 TDs in a 65-28 win over Tulsa giving him 11 for the season in three games. The Cowboys have this week off before getting Texas A&M for a Thursday night game in Stillwater.

Game of the Week

No. 1 Alabama with their Heisman All-American Mark Ingram back 100 percent travel to No. 10 Arkansas for a tough SEC matchup. On paper, this is the best matchup of the year we’ve had so far as we finally get into some meaningful parts of the schedule for the top ranked teams. Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallet has a big arm and has thrown for over 300 yards and 3 TDs in all three Arkansas wins. Alabama comes in as a strong seven-point favorite and while they won’t disrespect the Razorbacks, they could be looking ahead to two tough back-to-back games on their schedule immediately following this game. On Oct. 2 they play No. 9 Florida and then a week later they have to play No. 12 South Carolina in Columbia. It’s a tough game to handicap and will be more fun to watch than sweat a bet, but I would probably lean towards the Alabama side just because their defense should force Mallet into doing things he doesn’t want to.

This writer’s pick is on the Crimson Tide -- Alabama 34 Arkansas 21

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