Stock Picks

[wallstreet]

Savage,

We are getting a nice dip here..I will wait a day or two and see if we get a retrace to levels where we were buying before.

I am unhappy with the performance with my HLIT..hasnt hit the HOD at all..very dissapointing. SONS on the other hand has rocked..

Hope you did well for the rest of the day and I havent added or subtracted any of my stocks.

I was listening to Cramer on the radio and he was saying that this move today was fake..and it kinda looks like it as we semi swoon into the close..

[wallstreet]

Mary,

BOL on the earnings..looks like T minus 10 min or so..

Nice day to report earnings..a boom day. My stocks always report on the reverse..I like to be out before then if I remember to check in and know the earnings dates..lol

[savage1]

Wallstreet-just got home and was surprised stock went down as much as it did;they call it profit taking, I guess.
My $3.75 as just a gut feeling based on the retracement I have seen with other stocks of this ilk and price.
Who knos-maybe it will go down further so that greedy mm's can grab some more.
Anyways, I am happy with my $600 profit (considering I was down $200 initially).
As I am sure is the case with you my serious important money is in much safer stuff, and that there is certainly nothing wrong with picking up some lunch money if you can.
Now on to the real important stuff-tonight's games.:D

[mary]

ADBE----I TOLD YOU GUYS----YOU SHOULD HAVE GOT IN BED WITH ME--LOOK AT AFTERMARKET

[wallstreet]

Savage,

I agree..it was too hot too fast and it was the wise move, although it went higher after you left..to about 4.30 or so..then the sell off as traders left to other things.

Mary, congrats on the nice earnings.. I hope it keeps this high and higher for you. Nicely done and a 10% move is never a bad thing!!!

:D

[savage1]

Nice hit, Mary. Now just hit a few games tongith and/or a 3 or 4 team parlay with your winnings tonight and you will really be singing!

[mary]

NOT MUCH OUT THERE TONIGHT--JUST PLAY OAKLAHOMA

[wallstreet]

Damn it...

I get shook out of NGEN and the mother.... moves back to 6 today..

I cant believe I fell for the shake out. Now I am up instead of down on the trade...

Oh well..moving on to the next trade.

Today is a no trade day, nothing looks decent, but will post if that changes!

[savage1]

Wallstreet-I bought a little more of ipfs at $1.90;my source feels stock could really do well next year.
Did you remember several days ago I said ivan might pull back to $3.75? so far that is exact low for day;I didn't buy it though.

[wallstreet]

Savage,

I would like to see the volume slow dramatically on this stock. I know it always trades in the top 20 but right now there are the wrong people in the action. When they exit and on a bad day, that is when we should start buying again.

I am also unimpressed with the price action today..early HOD and nothing really since.

I was watching CNBS last night and the were talking about VOIP and I didnt know SONS was so heavy into that..they are a fiber optic stock, guess it shows what I knew about the company. Now instead of fiber optics they are being coralled in with the VIOP group..which means they are more volitile. So when SONS gets whacked for the VOIP sell off I will buy in and know it will swing in the other direction too..

I looked at that stock you mentioned..darn lean trading..I hope you dont have a huge position..you ever go to sell like 20k shares or somthing you will scare the hell out of all the MM's..

You see that CTRP?? What a crazy stock..low of 33 and high of 40 today on volume of 1.2 million shares..huge spread..

I didnt buy/sell anything today..no real reason to..but watching as usual.

[savage1]

Wallstreet-As usualy a great summation on day's actions of various stocks including ivan.
In answer to your question, no i have nowhere near 20000 shares;while I may gamble on stocks like this, believe me as I think I may have stated, I retired on Oct.1 (early retirement) and most of my money is professionally managed by a firm which is up 15% for the year and has averaged 12%since 1975.
I learned the hard way not to put all of my eggs in one basketball.
I had stock several years ago iatv(interactive tv stock), which has since merged I believed with optv. At one time stock went from 4 to 50 duting internet craze and I was up $200K at one point.
To make a long story short the so-called experts said it would go much higher, and like an idiot believed them.
Bottom line -stock went down to where it started and even lower, and I lost most of my profit.
These days with a soon to be 9 year old daughter to support and put through college some day, I am much more conservative and would not put more than 10K of my "play" money into any one stock;let my investment firm, whom I pay 1% a year ,make the real decisions.
Same with sports-I am far from being a heavy hitter, but derive the same ups and downs as do those who bet much larger.
One's values and perspective changes as you get older.
Sorry for the longwinded post.

[wallstreet]

Savage,

Knowing what you just said, let me offer a few suggestions.

I would highly recommend against going with a managed firm the way you describe. The rate of return you mentioned is not that fabulous for the length of time you mentioned. If you had put similar money into an S&P index fund from 1975 you would have greatly outperformed the so called professionals that are charging you a managment fee for their services.

My advice..still being a lisc stock broker myself, get out of that organization and do it yourself. That means this.. Out of the thousands of mutual funds out there, the S&P index fund outperforms like 95% of all funds and professional money managers. I would put my money in an S&P fund, or a total market fund and forget about paying a 1% yearly managment fee.

If you want to be a bit more speculative go to www.thestreet.com and check out Jim Cramer. He offers a paid service where he shows you his portfolio and sends out messages before he makes buys and sells. He ran his own hedge fund for many years and averaged 25% I think after fees for his clients. The charge for his "Action Plus" service is I think 395 a year or somthing and you would do better with an active investor who has no interests than to make you money..

After being on the other side of the coin, where I was a fianancial pro and was told to sell people certain funds and I would make more $$$ etc, and when I lived in PA my next door neighbor was in managment for a large hedge fund based out of Valley Forge PA (I wont give the name out) and we talked about things.. the average intellingent individual does not need to pay someone to manage their money.

Sorry to go on and on with this, but I think you can use that 1% better and open an acct with Ameritrade, put your funds in an S&P or total market fund and you will outperform the numbers you gave. You also get to see 100% of the time what you are in and why..whereas most hedge funds (or managed funds etc) will show you monthly or quarterly.

I could go on and on and on..but take my advice and look into this..and save that managment fee.

GL

[savage1]

Wallstreet-you make some excellent and valid points, and I do already have an account with Ameritrade and with Quick and Reilly.
However, according to their chart if you invested $100000 with them in 1975, it would be worth $2,597,660 on 12/31/02.
According to them also$100000 invested in a blended portfolio(I am quoting) of70% S&P 500/30% short-term US Treasuries over the same period would be worth $1,830,270.
These figures are after all costs.
There are no contracts, and if I want to take more out to invest on my own, I will.
Right now I am doing well on my own(with your help of course and those of several others), but I would be lying if I said my longterm track record was good when left to my own judgment(it is not coincidence that I don't post plays on games either) as I tend to gamble too much.
Thank god I gave up buying options several years ago-that was a longterm disaster;I had much better luck selling covered calls.
Anyways, as stated I certainly respect what you say especially with the fees involved and will evaluate from time to time.
Now lets get em in baskets tonight.

[wallstreet]

Savage,

If you are happy, that is what matters.

I have to completely agree with you about options.. I dabbled into options in the middle to late 90s and I never made money buying options. The problem with buying options is discipline..just like in trading stocks.

Instead of buying a call option on CSCO say like this.. A April 20 Call option, I would do somthing stupid and buy 5 January 30's.. and get killed. I lost it all playing options and would never do it again.

Problem with CC's is that the premiums are so thin anymore since everyone got knocked out of the market 2 yrs ago..so it makes it tough to sell them and make it worth the risk. The downside risk in selling covered calls isnt worth 5% or whatever you get after commissions for a month or two.. Most wont unwind calls, and most wont buy protective puts to guard against downside risk. If you want to do CC's right you gotta either cover them and get the hell out if the stock is getting creamed, buy protective puts..or sell CC's that are out a few months.

I get the hankering for options now and then, but it isnt worth the risk..stocks dont move like they did in the late 90's..10 or 15 pts a day..lol

[savage1]

Wallstreet-you are correct once again.
Presently am neither buying or selling calls and don't intend to.
Re:options-you can make money sometimes very quickly by trading these $1-5 or 6 dollar stocks as we just saw with ivan, and the best part is that unlike an option there is no time limit.
I can recall so many times buying an out of the money call within a month or two of expiration and then seeing stock drop right after that, making my investment worth virtually nothing(like they say the same way an icecream cone melts when the temp. is 100).
Please keep passing along your suggestions and of course stock tips as they are very helpful.