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**shoeman530** · 09-21-2010, 07:09 PM

Good Luck

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2010, 07:13 PM

Reason to back underdogs in key NL West games

The race in the NL West continues to come down to the wire as San Francisco and San Diego battle for supremacy with the Rockies lurking just 1.5 games back entering Tuesday. The Giants head to Chicago to open a three-game series with the Cubs. San Diego travels north to L.A. to take on the Dodgers for three.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (84-66)
at CHICAGO CUBS (66-81)

First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: San Francisco -114, Chicago +104 Total: 8.5

The Giants look to maintain their narrow half-game lead in the West when they send Matt Cain (12-10, 3.08 ERA) to the mound in Chicago on Tuesday. Cain has impressed lately, going 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA over his last three starts. His last effort was tremendous, throwing seven shutout innings and allowing just three hits and no walks while striking out five Dodgers. Cain has won his last three decisions and the Giants have won his last five starts.

Opposing Cain might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now, Carlos Zambrano (9-6, 3.75 ERA). Since returning to the rotation on August 9, Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He’s won his last five starts and the Cubs are 6-2 in his eight starts since his return. Zambrano has enjoyed plenty of success against the Giants, tallying a 5-1 mark with an ERA of 2.92 in nine career starts. The Cubs are 7-2 in those games.

Given Zambrano’s success, the FoxSheets side with the Cubs:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (76-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.7%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*).

SAN DIEGO PADRES (83-66)
at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (73-77)

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: Los Angeles -122, San Diego +112 Total: 7

After dropping three of four to St. Louis, the Padres hope Clayton Richard (12-8, 3.70 ERA) can right the ship in L.A Tuesday night. Richard is coming off one of the worst outings of his career where he lasted only three innings and gave up eight runs on 11 hits in a 9-6 loss at Colorado. Prior to that he had pitched well, not allowing more than two runs in six consecutive starts. He’s 3-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 3.57 ERA.

Chad Billingsley (11-10, 3.55 ERA) will get the call for the Dodgers. He’s coming off back-to-back losses at San Francisco and San Diego. In that game against the Padres, Billingsley was charged with four runs on six hits and five walks over 5.1 IP. He’s been effective in his career against San Diego though, going 9-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 18 starts. Twelve of those 18 games have gone under the total.

The FoxSheets like the Padres in this one:

Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (118-75 since 1997.) (61.1%, +51.9 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2010, 07:14 PM

Tuesday Tips

The two races in the Eastern divisions continue to heat up in the final two weeks of the season. The Phillies have opened a slight advantage over the Braves in the NL East, but Atlanta is still in the driver's seat for the NL Wild Card. We'll start in the Bronx with a similar scenario between New York and Tampa Bay, as the gap in the division is razor-thin.

Rays at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

Both these rivals will be playing October baseball, but the issue of who will potentially get home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs is still unsettled. The top two teams in the AL East continue their four-game set as this is the final series between these two clubs in the regular season.

Philip Hughes (16-8, 4.31 ERA) takes the mound for the Yankees, looking for his first quality start in five outings. Hughes was on the losing end of a 4-3 setback at Tropicana Field last Wednesday, allowing four earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The righty gave up a pair of homers to Dan Johnson, as the Yankees were able to hang in that game thanks to the now infamous Derek Jeter acting job on a hit by pitch. Hughes is winless in a pair of starts against Tampa Bay, but both outings came on the road.

The Rays send out James Shields (13-12, 4.86 ERA), who was on the winning side of last Wednesday's one-run triumph over Hughes and the Yankees. Shields scattered eight hits and one earned run in 6.1 innings to cash as a short home favorite. Tampa Bay is 5-1 in Shields' last six starts, including crucial home victories over the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers. Three of Shields' previous four starts on the road have finished 'over' the total, as the righty owns an ERA of 5.40 on the highway.

Tampa Bay owns a slight 8-7 edge over New York in the season series, while all six matchups in the Bronx cashed the 'over.' The Rays have claimed three of those six games over the Yankees in New York, as Tampa Bay plated eight runs or more in each of the wins.

Braves at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

Atlanta led the NL East for most of the season, thanks to Philadelphia's multitude of injuries throughout the summer. However, the Braves have gone backwards over the last month, while the Phillies have caught fire to retake the lead inside the division. Bobby Cox's team is still in control of the Wild Card, but the Braves would like to win their first division title since 2005.

It's a mismatch on the mound as former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay opposes rookie southpaw Mike Minor. Halladay (19-10, 2.49 ERA) is making a late case for another Cy Young honor, as Philadelphia is 8-2 in his previous 10 starts. The Phillies' ace lasted less than seven innings for the first time in 11 outings in last Wednesday's victory over the Marlins, his fourth win against Florida this season. Halladay has dominated the Braves in two starts, tossing a pair of complete games, while allowing 10 hits and one earned run combined.

Minor (3-1, 5.84 ERA) has struggled after a nice start with Atlanta, giving up 14 earned runs in his last three outings. The left-hander began his Braves' tenure with three straight quality starts, but it also included wins over the Mets, Nationals, and Cubs. Minor has not faced a team that is currently in playoff contention, as the best team he's seen is St. Louis, allowing seven hits and four earned runs in seven innings of an 8-6 triumph.

Atlanta leads the season series, 7-6, after Philadelphia's 3-1 victory on Monday night. Five of the seven matchups in Philadelphia have finished 'under' the total, including Halladay's complete-game gem on July 5 to beat the Braves, 3-1.

What else to watch for:

-- One of the hottest teams in baseball is one of the most disappointing. The Cubs played themselves out of the race early on, but are finishing the season strong following an 8-1 road trip at Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Florida. Chicago returns to the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field to host the NL West-leading Giants. Carlos Zambrano has been dynamic since his return following a suspension, leading the Cubs to wins in each of his last five outings.

-- The Padres begin the night a ½ game behind the Giants in the NL West, as San Diego makes the short trip up I-5 to battle the Dodgers. Los Angeles avoided a sweep with its extra-innings victory over Colorado on Sunday, as Chad Billingsley goes his 12th win. The Dodgers will be looking to avenge a three-game sweep by the Padres at Petco Park in early September as the 'under' is a strong 11-4 this season between these NL West rivals.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2010, 07:15 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Rangers at Angels – The Rangers are 6-0 since May 12, 2010 after a loss in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $640.

White Sox at Athletics – The White Sox are 8-0 since May 24, 2010 after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $975.

Mariners at Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 15, 2010 as a home favorite after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $600.

Reds at Brewers – The Reds are 6-0 since May 18, 2010 after a win in which they were tied at the end of 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $620. The Brewers are 0-6 since April 25, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $620 when playing against.

Giants at Cubs – The Giants are 6-0 since April 07, 2010 as a road favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $600. The Cubs are 0-6 since May 04, 2010 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $695 when playing against.

Rockies at Diamondbacks – The Rockies are 9-0 since July 30, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900.

Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 7-0 since April 06, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $900. The Dodgers are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 as a home favorite after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $795 when playing against.

Mets at Marlins – The Mets are 6-0 since April 28, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $610. The Marlins are 0-7 since June 24, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Astros at Nationals – The Astros are 5-0 since August 28, 2010 as a dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $600. The Nationals are 0-6 since June 19, 2010 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Braves at Phillies – The Braves are 7-0 since April 18, 2010 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $791. The Phillies are 12-0 since May 09, 2010 as a 200+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1200.

Cardinals at Pirates – The Cardinals are 0-5 since August 20, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $750 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since May 24, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Orioles at Red Sox – The Orioles are 4-0 since September 06, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $710.

Royals at Tigers – The Tigers are 14-0 since May 01, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1400.

Indians at Twins – The Indians are 0-7 since June 03, 2010 on the road when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2010, 07:18 PM

MLB Betting: Padres slide into Los Angeles

Two weeks remain in baseball's regular season and there's plenty still to decide. However, if the San Diego Padres are doing some advance work on their 2010 team video, they might like to think about using Paul Simon's Slip sliding away for the theme music.

The Padres have seen their once 6½-game lead in the NL West disappear. San Diego trails the Giants in the division by a half-game entering Monday's action, and sit 2½-games south of the Braves in the wild card standings.

A long 10-game roadie comes to an end For San Diego the next three days in Los Angeles where they'll take on the Dodgers. The Padres just finished a 1-3 series in St. Louis after winning two of three in Denver to begin the trip.

Tuesday's series opener pits San Diego southpaw Clayton Richard (15-15, 3.70) opposite Dodgers righty Chad Billingsley (14-14, 3.55). First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. Pacific.

San Diego reached a season-best 27 games above .500 on Aug. 25 when the Padres stood 76-49 and were pulling away from the rest of the division. They've won just seven of 24 games since that point and unlike previously this season when they team fell short, the offense is not the prime culprit in this late-season dive.

Case in point, this past week both Richard and Mat Latos suffered their worst outings of the year in losses to the hard-charging Rockies and the still-hanging-on Cardinals. Richard, a 135 underdog at Coors Field on Sept. 15, lasted just three innings and was raked for 11 hits, including a homer, while allowing eight runs in San Diego's 9-6 defeat.

The Michigan alum has faced the Dodgers twice this season with the Padres winning both games. His lone 2010 appearance at Chavez Ravine was Aug. 2 as a 120 underdog on the MLB odds board. Richard worked into the sixth frame and was charged with four earned runs in the Padres' 10-5 triumph. Overall, he's allowed five earnies in 11 1/3 innings against LA in 2010. It was the fourth straight start by Richard that ended in a San Diego loss.

Los Angeles has been out of the race for the most part since opening the second half of the campaign with six straight losses. The Dodgers halted a four-game slide of their own Sunday with a 7-6 win in 11 innings at home against the Rockies. It was the team's first dubya since the announcement that manager Joe Torre was stepping down with Don Mattingly taking his place beginning in 2011.

Billingsley will be taking on the San Diego lineup for a fourth time in 2010 with Los Angeles 2-1 in the previous three. The two wins came at Petco Park in May and July. The lone defeat was at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 5. Billingsley and LA were 155 MLB money line favorites only to be blanked 5-0 by Kevin Correia and the Padres bullpen. The Dodgers are 4-8 in Billingsley's 12 assignments since the All-Star Game.

Weather shouldn't be an issue for Tuesday's contest or the rest of the series. Mostly sunny skies are in the mix all week with highs in the low-to-mid 70s and overnight lows dipping into the upper-50s.

The series continues Wednesday and Thursday with the Padres listing Tim Stauffer and Latos for their starting hurlers opposite LA's Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda respectively.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-21-2010, 07:19 PM

MLB Odds: Twins’ Baker returns versus Tribe

The Minnesota Twins can’t take their foot off the pedal as they continue a three-game home series Tuesday night with the Cleveland Indians.

Minnesota (89-60) saw its magic number drop to four on Sunday even after losing 6-2 at home to Oakland. That’s because the Chicago White Sox dropped its sixth-straight contest. Minnesota leads Chicago by 10 games in the AL Central, pending Monday night’s results.

The Twins dropped two of three overall to Oakland, scoring seven total runs. They’re still fighting for the AL’s best record even with the division race essentially over. Home field advantage would be crucial in an ALDS battle against Tampa Bay or the NY Yankees.

Minnesota has something else on its mind besides winning, injuries. Catcher Joe Mauer jammed his left knee on Sunday and is questionable for this series. He has a 1.000 OPS since the All-Star break. Outfielders Jason Kubel (wrist) and Denard Span (shoulder) are both day-to-day after being out since the middle of last week.

This team has overcome injuries all year with closer Joe Nathan (elbow) out for the season. First baseman Justin Morneau (concussion) has been out since July 7 and may not return.

Starter Scott Baker (12-9, 4.60 ERA) is coming back from an elbow injury to make this start. It was supposed to be Carl Pavano’s turn, but the 17-game winner is being pushed back to Saturday for extra rest.

The 29-year-old righty Baker left after two innings against Detroit on Sept. 2 with elbow pain. He had been pitching better in the second half (4.03 ERA), with Minnesota winning seven of his nine starts.

Baker has pitched much better at home all year (8-3, 3.98 ERA). He’s fighting for a spot in the playoff rotation and might not even make the postseason roster.

Baker has struggled in two starts against Cleveland this year (0-2, 10.45 ERA). Both were at home, which makes it extra surprising.

The Indians (62-87) haven’t given up under first-year coach Manny Acta. They’re 9-8 this month and have won their last two series against the Angels and Royals. The MLB odds ‘over’ is 3-0 in their last three games after the ‘under’ hit 12 straight.

Fausto Carmona (12-14, 3.81 ERA) has had a nice year overall after a 5.89 ERA the last two seasons. He’s gotten poor run support all year and just an average of 2.58 runs in the second half.

Cleveland is 2-6 in his last eight starts, winning the last two at home against Minnesota and the Angels. He allowed just two earned runs in 16 innings, while surrendering just two walks. The ‘under’ is 5-0 in his last five starts.

Carmona is 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA in three starts versus Minnesota this year. None of those were at the Twins’ new Target Field. He was 2-4 with a 5.39 ERA in eight lifetime appearances at the old Metrodome.

Cleveland has lost two key starters for the year with knee injuries, outfielder Grady Sizemore and catcher Carlos Santana. The lineup is littered with young players after earlier trades of Russell Branyan, Jhonny Peralta, and Austin Kearns.

This is the final series between the teams this year, with Minnesota going 9-6 so far. They split the six meetings in Minnesota, with the ‘under’ going 4-1-1. Cleveland is just 7-16 in its last 23 games in Minnesota overall.

First pitch on Tuesday night is 5:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear and in the 60’s.

**Spark** · 09-21-2010, 07:59 PM

Good Luck bum

**bryce** · 09-21-2010, 08:25 PM

Good luck Bum!

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