Announcement

**Udog** · 09-21-2010, 10:06 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Week 3

Things change quickly in the NFL and it’s up to oddsmakers to stay ahead of the curve on a week-by-week basis.

It’s a catch-22: bettors have more game action to evaluate teams in their day-to-day handicapping, but so too do oddsmakers, which means you’re going to see sharper lines as we move throughout the season.

A couple of teams that came into the year as relative afterthoughts are already showing up on oddsmakers’ radars – the Chicago Bears, the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins and even the Houston Texans to a point.

“When you look at pointspreads for the above, the Bears, Dolphins and Texans will get more respect from the bookmakers and betting public than the Chiefs and Bucs,” says Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Manager at Tropicana Las Vegas. “It will take a few more wins or a major upset to change the public’s perception so early in the year on the other two teams.”

“The Texans appear better than the books thought entering the season,” adds Sportsinteraction.com Oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “Their come-from-behind win over Washington was even more impressive than their dismantling of the Colts in Week 1. You can be sure the Texans will be getting more respect from the oddsmakers going forward.”

The betting public is already having its say on a couple of big matchups in Week 3, especially with huge divisional games coming this week with the Packers visiting the Bears on Monday Night Football and the 2-0 Miami Dolphins up against the New York Jets.

“Miami did open up the favorite -2.5 against the Jets and the early action has been on the Jets as the current line is down to -1.5.” says Esposito. “In the other primetime matchup the Pack opened up -3.5 over the Bears and the public quickly jumped on the Bears plus the points and the game is down to Packers -3.”
As of now, the betting public isn’t making too much about some of the bigger news out of the NFL on Monday.

New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis has been ruled out of Sunday’s game, but Esposito doesn’t expect that line to move much, even though Revis can control an entire side of the field when healthy. He says the same is true about Carolina’s quarterback switch as the club will go with Jimmy Clausen under center instead of Matt Moore when they square off against the Cincinnati Bengals.

“There hasn’t been any movement in the Panthers game,” says Esposito. “The way Moore looked it’s not viewed as a big drop off. I suspect we will see some Cincy action later in the week.”

The Bengals currently sit as 3-point road chalk against the Panthers.

Other lines to keep an eye on over the next few days include the Colts-Broncos (+6) and Bills-Pats (-13).

“I think we can expect some movement in the Colts at Broncos game after Indy’s great performance against the Giants,” says Sindall. “The Pats line could also be on the move because the Bills are terrible and people will be fading them all year.”

Speaking of fading teams early in the year, don’t expect to get any bargains on the 0-2 Minnesota Vikings anytime soon. Well, as long as they can get past the Detroit Lions as 10.5-point favorites on Sunday.

“The Vikings have been that public team for the past two seasons, so I don’t think the public will hit the panic button yet, but if they don’t turn it around quickly that may change in a hurry,” says Esposito. “They do play the Lions this week and are the second largest favorite on the board. If they lose here you can throw everything out I said.”

Even though it is still very early, some teams are surprising the books and could have value as sleeper clubs moving forward, including the Kansas City Chiefs (vs. San Fran) and, possibly to a lesser extent, the Washington Redskins (-3.5 at St. Louis).

“I guess when you look at a real sleeper it would have to be the Chiefs,” says Esposito. “The reason I say that is they are in a division with only one other team considered a legitimate playoff team and they have already beaten them. It’s still early but they have a young, aggressive defense, a talented young RB in Jamaal Charles, a go-to WR in Dwayne Bowe and number of talented coaches to lead this young team. I know it’s only Year 2 but the New England connection [with Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis in as coordinators and Matt Cassel at quarterback] is apparent.”

Sindall wouldn’t go that far in picking a sleeper, but did take a Washington club that has gone through a ton of changes over the last little while.

“I kind of like the Redskins as a sleeper even with all the Albert Haynesworth drama,” he said. “Two of the things that you can change to have the biggest and most immediate impact on a team is the coach and the quarterback and Washington made improvements in both positions.”

**Udog** · 09-21-2010, 10:07 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

If this report updates, I'll add the info.

Week 3

Sunday, September 26

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TENNESSEE (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (0 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (1 - 1) at CAROLINA (0 - 2) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 80-54 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 0) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (0 - 2) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (0 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 0) - 9/26/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 2) - 9/26/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 46-75 ATS (-36.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 106-140 ATS (-48.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 76-109 ATS (-43.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 106-140 ATS (-48.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 50-74 ATS (-31.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/26/2010, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 0) - 9/26/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 27

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GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 0) - 9/27/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 127-94 ATS (+23.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-21-2010, 10:08 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, 9/26/2010

TENNESSEE at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 33-15 ATS vs. NFC
NY GIANTS: 7-1 Over off non-conf game

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 35-19 Under after allowing 30+ pts
NEW ENGLAND: 2-5 ATS as favorite of 10 or more

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 3-6 ATS as underdog of 10 or more
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS as favorite of 10 or more

PITTSBURGH at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders
TAMPA BAY: 17-4 Under vs. AFC North

CINCINNATI at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 0-8 ATS as favorite
CAROLINA: 6-0 Under at home off ATS loss

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 7-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points
NEW ORLEANS: 5-13 ATS at home vs. New Orleans

SAN FRANCISCO at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-3 ATS at Kansas City
KANSAS CITY: 3-0 Over off BB Unders

DETROIT at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 10-6 ATS as underdog of 10 or more
MINNESOTA: 18-33 ATS off SU loss as favorite

DALLAS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 1-5 ATS after game with 50+ pass attempts
HOUSTON: 7-1 Over in September

WASHINGTON at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 10-1 Under as a favorite
ST LOUIS: 2-11 ATS as a road loss

PHILADELPHIA at JACKSONVILLE, 4:05 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Under Away off an Over
JACKSONVILLE: 4-13 ATS in home games

INDIANAPOLIS at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 17-10 ATS off SU win
DENVER: 2-12 ATS off an Over

SAN DIEGO at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 44-27 Over vs. NFC
SEATTLE: 2-9 ATS as an underdog

OAKLAND at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
OAKLAND: 0-6 ATS off a win by 6 pts or less
ARIZONA: 7-0 ATS at home off ATS loss

NY JETS at MIAMI, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY JETS: 6-0 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
MIAMI: 0-6 ATS at home off BB SU/ATS wins

Monday, 9/27/2010

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
GREEN BAY: 13-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite
CHICAGO: 0-4 ATS vs. Green Bay

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 09-21-2010, 10:10 AM

NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Sunday, September 26

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NY GIANTS
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tennessee's last 18 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games at home
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CAROLINA
Cincinnati is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-16-1 SU in its last 22 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Kansas City's last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against New England
Buffalo is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 11 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. HOUSTON
Dallas is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Houston5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans17-3-1 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 11 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 16 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Minnesota is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
Kansas City is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Kansas City is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. JACKSONVILLE
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games at home

4:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 4-4-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Washington

4:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. ARIZONA
Oakland is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Denver
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Monday, September 27

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

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**Udog** · 09-22-2010, 09:10 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Cincinnati at Carolina
The Panthers look to bounce back from last week's 20-7 loss to Tampa Bay and build on their 11-5 ATS record in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Carolina is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 399-400: Tennessee at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.061; NY Giants 137.515
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Over

Game 401-402: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.960; New England 135.346
Dunkel Line: New England by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+14 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.997; Baltimore 139.580
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 16 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10; 37
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10); Over

Game 405-406: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.164; Tampa Bay 128.054
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 30
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 33
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-1); Under

Game 407-408: Cincinnati at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.037; Carolina 133.218
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 409-410: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.519; New Orleans 144.157
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: San Francisco at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 128.311; Kansas City 132.555
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4; 40
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

Game 413-414: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 118.401; Minnesota 141.101
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 22 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Dallas at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.452; Houston 137.765
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 417-418: Washington at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.744; St. Louis 123.030
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Philadelphia at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.327; Jacksonville 129.696
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Under

Game 421-422: Indianapolis at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 138.804; Denver 127.343
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: San Diego at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.119; Seattle 131.801
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Oakland at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.878; Arizona 131.598
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Under

Game 427-428: NY Jets at Miami (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.151; Miami 138.466
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Over

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game 429-430: Green Bay at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.931; Chicago 129.464
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

**Udog** · 09-25-2010, 08:34 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 3 analysis

Titans (1-1) @ Giants (1-1)-- After two weeks, 16 of 32 NFL teams are 1-1, eight are 0-2, eight are 2-0. First road game for Titan club that is 12-6-1 as road dog since 2006, and 20-7-1 vs NFC teams since '03. QB Young got benched in second half last week, in game where Titans turned ball over seven times after Pitt ran opening kick back for TD. Tennessee was just 2-6 vs spread last year in game following a loss (Giants were 2-5). Giants trailed both '10 games at the half; they're 12-14 as home favorite since '06. NFC East teams are already 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC South teams are 4-2.

Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in divisional games so far this season, but home side was underdog in seven of nine (home faves are 0-2 in divisional games). Patriots are 18-1 in last 19 series games, winning last 13 in row, but none of last four wins were by more than 13 points. Bills lost last nine visits here, with four of last five losses by 10 or less points. Pats didn't score in second half last week, have been outscored 39-14 in 2nd half of first two games- since '06, they're 9-13 as double digit favorite. Buffalo is 9-2 as road underdog in divisional games, since 2005.

Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (1-1)-- Over last 10 years, Ravens are 41-18-2 as a home favorite, 10-3 last two years. Baltimore defense didn't allow TD on first 24 drives in first two games, but did allow eight FGs; Flacco is just 37-77 as a passer so far- Raven offense has seven turnovers (-6) already. Cleveland led 14-10 at half in both games so far, then didn't score in second half either game, losing by 3-2 points. Ravens covered six of last seven as double digit favorite, Browns are 5-7 in last dozen as double digit dog. Ravens won last four series games by average score of 28-10, beating Browns 24-3/16-0 last season.

Steelers (2-0) @ Buccaneers (2-0)-- AFC teams were 5-1 vs NFC squads last week, are 6-2 this year. Pitt starting #4 QB Batch, with former #2 Leftwich in reserve. Bucs have six takeaways (+4) in 2-0 start; they've outscored first two opponents 13-0 in second half- they're 13-31 on 3rd down, moving chains well enough to win field position battle (+13/+9 in average starting field position). Steelers ran opening kick back for TD last week, then sat on lead, gaining 127 total yards in Nashville (only 21 passing). Bucs are 1-7 as home dog last two years. Since 2006, Steelers are 8-14 vs spread as a road favorite. Bucs are 6-2 in game before their bye the last eight years.

Bengals (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2)-- Took two games for Carolina to switch to rookie QB Clausen (7-13/59 yards last week) as starter. Panthers are 15-10-1 as home dog since 2000, but 5-7 vs spread vs AFC teams since '07, 4-8-1 as dog of 3 or less points since '06. Bengals didn't score TD in last week's win vs division rival Ravens, and haven't scored first half TD yet in 2010. Carolina is 13-9 vs spread in game following its last 22 losses; Bengals are 8-12 vs spread in game after last 20 wins. Cincy is 3-6 as favorite of 3 or less points since '07, 1-5 as road favorite in non-divisional games since 2--6.

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (2-0)-- Short week for 2-0 Saints, who've run ball for only 129 yards on 49 carries in two games, and are now without Bush for 6-8 weeks (broken leg). Saints won seven of last eight in series, including last three by 4-8-3 points- average total in last five games is 53.4. Falcons lost last six games in Superdome (they beat Saints in San Antonio in '05)- they're 16-10 as road underdog since '06, but since 2000, are just 29-38-3 vs spread in the game following a loss. Since 2001, Saints are just 3-15 as home favorite in divisional games, but 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a single digit favorite.

49ers (0-2) @ Chiefs (2-0)-- Short week, long travel for 49er squad that since 2002, is just 2-7-1 vs spread as road favorite, but is 6-1-2 vs spread in games after their last nine losses. Niners have six turnovers (-5) in two games; its not often an NFL team loses when they're +4 in turnovers, like 49ers were against Saints Monday. Chiefs are 7-11 as home dog since '07, 5-8-1 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points- they've gained just 13.8 yards/point so far, thanks to TD's on punt return/defense in first two games. 49ers lost last meeting here 41-0 in '06. Chiefs lost game before their bye in four of last five years.

Lions (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2)-- Minnesota is 19-2 in last 21 series games, taking last five by average score of 26-12; Lions lost last 12 visits here, with only one of last five losses here by less than 9 points. Vikings have two TDs, turned it over five times in 21 drives; their offense was outscored by Miami defense last week. Minnesota is 6-3 in last nine games as home fave. Lions are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as double digit dog; since '06, they're 7-11-1 as road dog vs divisional opponents. Since '03, Vikings are 17-11 vs spread as home fave vs NFC North foes. Detroit lost first two games, but only by 5-3 points.

Cowboys (0-2) @ Texans (2-0)-- Dallas desperate for win after 0-2 start with bye looming; Cowboys are 6-1 in pre-bye game last seven years (3-0 as fave). Houston allowed 419/403 passing yards in first two games, so no excuse for Romo not to have big day; Dallas has two TD's, FG on its five red zone trips. Pokes ran ball only 42 times out of 142 plays in first two games, but seeing as how Houston struggled with pass defense, hard to see Cowboys running ball more here. Texans scored 44 2nd-half points in two games, rallying from down 20-7 last week to nip Redskins in OT. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in games outside division. NFC East underdogs are 0-3.

Redskins (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Washington DC Haslett was Rams interim HC in '08. Skins are 7-3 in last ten series games, with last three decided either by 2 points or in OT; they're 4-1 in last five visits to this site. First road game for Washington team that hasn't turned ball over yet (+2). Rams are 7-14-1 as a home dog since '07; they've been dog in last 19 home games, but led first two games this year at half, before being outscored 20-10 in second half. Skins have only 107 rushing yards in two games. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside its division. NFC East teams are 1-5 vs spread outside its own division.

Eagles (1-1) @ Jaguars (1-1)-- Jags won all three series games; Philly lost two visits here, 38-21/28-25. Vick gets another start after 21-34/247 performance in Eagles' 35-32 (led 35-17 with 5:00 left) win last week at Detroit. Jags are 10-5 as home dog since 2005; they've allowed seven TDs in two games, three of which were on drives less than 60 yards. Philly has 312 rushing yards in its two games (Vick ran ball 8 times for 37 yards last week). Eagles are 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite, but since 2002, 12-20 vs spread when playing AFC teams. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread in non-divsional games.

Colts (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1)-- Indy won last four series games by average of 37-23; they're 9-3 as road favorite since '08- since '01, they're 17-7-1 as a road fave in non-divisional games. Broncos were outrushed 243-154 in first couple games, with favorite covering both. Denver is 6-3 as home dog since '02. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in non-division games. Indy won two of last three visits here, with both wins by a FG. League-wide, home dogs are 3-2 this season in non-divisional games. Colt defense allowed 377 rushing yards in first two games- they allowed 13 points in first half, 35 after halftime.

Chargers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Seattle backup QB Whitehurst was with San Diego last couple years; his knowledge could help here, vs Charger club that is is 3-6 as road fave since '08; they lost five of last six games to former division rival Seahawks, with last five in series all decided by 3 or less points. Bolts lost five of last seven visits here. Seattle is 6-3 as home underdog since '06, 8-13-1 as single digit underdog. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside their own weak division. AFC teams are 6-2 vs NFC this year. Seattle rush defense has only allowed 114 yards on 57 carries in its two games so far this season.

Raiders (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Gradkowski gets start at QB for Oakland as result of his rallying Raiders in second half last week; Oakland won both of its trips to Arizona, but last one was in '02. Cards have serious QB issues; they're 40-74 for 415 passing yards in two games, with seven turnovers (-2), and are 5-21 on third down conversions. Raiders have only two offensive TDs so far, but have kicked five FGs. This is home opener for Arizona squad that is 13-11 as home favorite since '05; Raiders are 3-14 vs spread in NFC games since '06. Redbirds have run ball 34 times out of 112 plays; they need better balance.

Jets (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0)-- Home opener for Miami squad that is 2-0 so far this year, allowing two TDs on foes' 23 drives, holding Edwards/Favre to 3.1/ 5.3 yards/attempt, but Fish are 5-24 as a home favorite since '03. Miami won last three series games, with home side losing four of last five. Jets won three of last four visits here- their WR Edwards is expected to play despite his DUI arrest earlier this week. First road game for Gang Green squad that is 14-8 as road dog since '06; in two games this year, Jets outscored opponents 21-3 and have outrushed opponents 252-101. Can Sanchez hit big plays on the road?

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (2-0)-- Home side won four of last five Chicago-Green Bay games; Packers are 2-3 in last five visits here, with average total in those games 34.6. Bears have six takeaways in two games (+2); when Martz offense doesn't turn ball over, they score points. Chicago is only NFL team to average 9+ yards/pass attempt in both of its first two games. Bears are 14-10 as home dog since 2002, 4-1 as divisional home dog since '04; Packers are 9-3 as a road favorite since 2007. So far this season, home underdogs in divisional games are 6-1 against the spread. Bear defense allowed 56 yards in 41 rushes in first two games this season, but their offense converted just 7 of 25 on third down.

**Udog** · 09-25-2010, 06:46 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 26

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What Bettors Need to Know
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Sunday, September 26

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 35.5)

The undefeated Dolphins sit atop the AFC East at 2-0 and have a chance to separate themselves in the division from the preseason division favorite Jets.

Mainly thanks to phenomenal defensive performances, Miami's record is unblemished through two weeks and the team is coming off close victories over Buffalo (15-10) and Minnesota (14-10). The Jets endured a similar contest in Week 1, losing to Baltimore 10-9, before the offense got going in a 28-14 win over New England last Sunday.

LINE MOVEMENT

The line opened at a pick or Miami -1 but multiple books are offering Jets +2.5 as of Saturday afternoon. The total is moving slightly, mostly dancing between 34.5 and 36. Either way, most expect a low-scoring contest Sunday night.

INJURY REPORT

The Jets had health problems right from the start this season. Nose tackle Kris Jenkins was lost for the year in Week 1 and now star cornerback Darrelle Revis is licking his wounds. Revis tweaked his hamstring while trying to stay in stride with Randy Moss on a deep TD pass last weekend.
Revis is out for Sunday's game against Miami, so expect Antonio Cromartie to matchup against Fins star receiver Brandon Marshall. Marshall had the best day of his career with the Denver Broncos in 2008, ripping down 18 receptions for 166 yards against a San Diego secondary that included Cromartie.

Jets linebacker Calvin Pace (foot) is also out, but defensive end Jason Taylor and center Nick Manggold were upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday.

The Dolphins are in pretty good shape, although they are not without issues. Inside linebacker Channing Crowder is doubtful with a groin problem and rookie defensive end Jared Odrick will miss a second straight game due to a hairline fracture in his right leg. Offensive guard John Jerry missed his third consecutive practice on Friday because of illness and he is listed as doubtful.

PRIOR ENGAGEMENTS

The Jets won five in a row starting with a 2006 sweep of Miami, but the Dolphins ended the drought by winning the second encounter in 2008 and now they are on a three-game streak.

Miami was 2-0 last year against the Jets, even though Miami was an underdog in each game.

THE ROYAL TANNENBAUM

In addition to their injury problems, the Jets are mired in a controversy surrounding wide receiver Braylon Edwards. Recently arrested for driving under the influence, Edwards will not start Sunday night's game. It's not clear exactly if he will take the field, but the punishment is not expected to be a whole lot more than "not starting."

General manager Mike Tannenbaum says the decision will be made sometime before kickoff, it won't be announced, and it will not depend on how the game is progressing.

While some outsiders have called for a suspension, Tannenbaum pointed out that deactivating Edwards would be a violation of the labor agreement. Edwards said he would waive his rights if the team wanted to punish him further, but Tannenbaum told the New Jersey Star-Ledger, "A player cannot waive his collectively-bargained rights."

"Our reputation is important," Tannenbaum continued. "We take it seriously. We want to be known as a first-class organization."

It’s a tough call for Tannenbaum. The Jets don’t have many receiving weapons, and Edwards has five touchdown catches in just three career games against the Dolphins.

It's pretty clear that by not inflicting more punishment, the Jets also want to be a first-place organization.

IT'S ELECTRIC

The Dolphins are pumped up for primetime, a slot they were all too unfamiliar with prior to last season.

"Electric," fullback Lousaka Polite told the Miami Herald. "No other way to put it. It's electric. Two teams, everyone's watching. You can't hide from that. So you play your hardest."

"Of course, it's a different atmosphere," added defensive end Kendall Langford. "It's a great feeling, everyone's energized. The lights bring it out. It's just more exciting. I guess it kind of goes back to your high school days when you played with the lights on...Friday night lights."

The Dolphins were relegated exclusively to Sunday afternoons in 2008, but a strong season garnered them three primetime slots in 2009. They did not disappoint. Miami fell to Indianapolis--the AFC Champion--27-23, edged the Jets 31-27, and beat Carolina 27-23.

Miami may want to test the Jets through the air on Sunday due to Revis' absence, but the team dominated on the ground in last year's three night games. Tony Sporano's club ate up 45:07 of clock against the Colts, ran for 151 yards against the Jets before Brown scored the game-winner with six seconds left, and Ricky Williams ran for 119 yards and scored three times against the Panthers.

"I just think that this team has done well in some of those situations on those kinds of stages, and I think they'll be excited," Sparano told the Herald. "I don't think, I know they'll be excited."

TRENDING TOPICS

The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records.

The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against AFC East rivals.

The over is 6-1-1 in Miami's last eight home games.

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**Udog** · 09-25-2010, 06:50 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 26

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NFL Total Bias: Week 3 over/under picks
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Last Sunday I found myself standing in the middle of my living room, pulling down fist pumps and screaming at my television.

This was odd for two reasons: 1) I was watching the Philadelphia Eagles carve up the Detroit Lions’ secondary and 2) I had absolutely nothing riding on the game.

You see, I’ve never been much of an Andy Reid fan and couldn’t care much less about the Eagles. But when Mike Vick was spinning and scampering around, leaving Lions falling over themselves while the chains kept moving, I couldn’t help but get up.

I’ve ripped into him more times than I can count at this point (Exhibit A), but have always appreciated the way he can transform an offense just by stepping on the field. So when Andy Reid changed his mind and said that Vick, not Kevin Kolb, was his man, I wasn’t surprised. Actually, I respected Reid more for being straight up and making the right decision for his team.

With Vick on the field, everything opens up. LeSean McCoy gets bigger gaps to run through and DeSean Jackson becomes more dangerous outside. Vick’s presence makes the players around him better, which is exactly what you want out of a quarterback.

He picked up a bad rap in Atlanta with everybody thinking he was strictly a run-first quarterback. The reality was that he ran because nobody ever got open for him. That isn’t a problem in Philly and he’s out to make the most of it.

"I always wondered if I would get the second chance, if I would get the opportunity to play again, to start in this league," Vick told reporters recently. "Here we are, and I got the chance."

You never know how this is all going to play out down the road, but for right now, Mike Vick is the right man for this team and good on Andy Reid for realizing it.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 44.5)

The Jaguars have had a tough time stopping anybody so far this year, giving up 27.5 points per game in their first two games, both of which played over the posted total. Last week they were pounded 38-13 by the San Diego Chargers, allowing 329 passing yards and another 151 yards on the ground. In short, this defense has some serious problems.

I think Jacksonville should be able to move the chains a bit with the running game. Maurice Jones-Drew had only 31 yards rushing last week, so you know the Jags will look to get him involved early. If they can do that, look for wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker to have another big game. He had 10 catches for 105 yards last week after being shut out in Week 1.

Pick: Over

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 39.5)

This has to be the worst matchup on the board. On one side you have the Raiders, who got 145 yards on the ground from Darren McFadden and some decent gains from the passing game once Bruce Gradkowski took over for Jason Campbell at quarterback, but still only managed a single touchdown. Gradkowski will start again this week.

Arizona is trying to switch to more of a running attack this year and should have Beanie Wells set to help out Tim Hightower at least a bit. But they’re going to have to get something from quarterback Derek Anderson at some point to put a few scores on the board.

Expect a ground battle and a lot of flags in this one - the Raiders and Cardinals rank first and second in total penalties.

Pick: Under

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5, 37)

The Cleveland Browns say they’re going to get the ball into Josh Cribbs’ hands more this week, which is a heck of an idea considering he’s easily their most dangerous player. The problem is, the Browns just don’t have many other weapons and you know the Ravens are targeting Cribbs this week.

With Jake Delhomme nursing a high-ankle sprain, Seneca Wallace will likely make his second straight start. His speed brings a level of trickery to the offense out of the Wildcat, but it’s nothing the Ravens haven’t seen before.

Pick: Under

Last week: 2-1
Season: 3-3

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**Udog** · 09-26-2010, 08:59 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 26

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Tips and Trends
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Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

COWBOYS: Dallas has been the league's biggest disappointment, as the trendy Super Bowl pick is 0-2 SU. The Cowboys are looking to avoid starting 0-3 SU for the first time since 2001. This season marks the 50th anniversary for the franchise, and the Super Bowl is played in Cowboys stadium. Dallas needs to focus on the task at hand, and not the talking heads. The Cowboys are only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games overall, so their odds are even taller heading into this contest. Dallas has been the listed favorite in each game they've played this year, so playing as the listed underdog is new to them. Despite having many high profile talents, the Cowboys offense has only scored two TD's during the regular season. QB Tony Romo has come under fire of late, as he doesn't appear to be firing on all cylinders. Nobody is more frustrated and concerned than Coach Phillips, who is rumored to be on the hot seat. The only good news for the Cowboys this year has been their defense. Despite working with short fields, the Dallas defense has only allowed 20 PPG to start the year.

Cowboys are 2-5 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - WR Dez Bryant (ribs) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

TEXANS: (-3, O/U 47) Houston very well could be playing their most important game in franchise history, as they can get to 3-0 SU for the first time in franchise history. The Texans are winning thanks to the league's best offense, averaging 32 PPG. Houston needed every bit of offense last week, as they came back from a double digit deficit to beat the Redskins. QB Matt Schaub has been simply dynamic this season, passing for more than 300 YPG, including 4 TD passes. Schaub has grown into the team leader of this team, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he has a catching target like WR Andre Johnson. Johnson nearly single-handily beat the Redskins last week, as he caught everything thrown in his direction. Defensively, Houston has a lot of work to do, as they are giving up an average of 25.5 PPG. The Texans would like nothing more than to get to 3-0 SU against their big brother today. The battle of Texas is at stake, and for the first time in this series the Texans have the better team. Houston has struggled in the past few years both SU and ATS in big opportunities such as today.

Texans are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games against a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - WR Andre Johnson (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 28 (SIDE of the Day)

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

JETS: New York has shown 2 completely performances this season. In their season opener, the Jets were terrible against Baltimore. Last week, the Jets dominated the Patriots 28-14 SU as the listed underdog. That win over New England was a statement game for the Jets, as they needed to silence their critics. QB Mark Sanchez showed great improvement from the opener, and will need to continue that maturation as the season progresses. Sanchez and the Jets will be playing their first road game of the season tonight. Making matters worse is the fact that the Jets are likely to be without the services of star WR Braylon Edwards. RB Ladanian Tomlinson has looked very fresh for the Jets, far better than he looked in the past few seasons in San Diego. The Jets have revenge tonight, as they lost both meetings last season to the Dolphins. Defensively, the Jets will have to maintain their sturdy defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. New York is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC opponents.

Jets are 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3-1 last 12 games against the AFC.

Key Injuries - CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 13

DOLPHINS: (-1.5, O/U 35) Miami is looking to start 3-0 SU for the first time since 2002. The Dolphins have been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL, considering they won both their games both SU and ATS while on the road. The Dolphins are likely to have a huge homefield edge tonight, considering this game is the season opener and is being played under the national spotlight. Miami is winning with their defense, as they have limited each of their opponents to only 10 PTS. The Dolphins are tied with the Steelers for the best scoring defense in the NFL. Miami has been playing some aggressive defense this year, and that's led to both of their games going far under the posted total. Offensively, the Dolphins have struggled far more. Miami is ranked only 27th in the NFL in total yards. Not only is this offense struggling to move the ball, they are also fumbling the football. In their last game, both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown fumbled the ball. QB Chad Henne hasn't thrown for many yards, but he has completed better than 60% of his passes in each game this year. Against the tough Jets defense, Henne is going to have to make plays with his arms for the Dolphins to win tonight.

Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC East.
Under is 20-8 in Dolphins last 28 games following a S.U. win.

Key Injuries - LB Channing Crowder (groin) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

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**Udog** · 09-26-2010, 09:56 PM

NFL

Monday, September 27

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What Bettors Need to Know: Packers at Bears
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3, 46)

ODDS AND ENDS

The Packers briefly opened as a 3.5-point road favorites last week, but the majority of sportsbooks opened the line -3 where it currently stands with the juice slightly favoring Chicago.

Oddsmakers are unlikely to move off such a key number as NFL favorites win by exactly 3 points nearly 10 percent of the time. There is a chance some Green Bay money will come back in on Monday evening as 71 percent of the public is backing the Packers according to the *********** consensus.

The over/under line opened at 45 total points last week and has since risen to 46 in most locations. There is a chance this line will move up on Monday night as 69 percent of the public is favoring the over, according to the *********** consensus.

INJURY REPORT

The Packers suffered a major blow when they lost running back Ryan Grant two weeks ago. Grant led the team with 1,317 rushing yards last season and is out for the year with torn ligaments in his ankle.

Fullback Korey Hall (hip) and linebacker Brady Poppinga (knee) did not practice this week and might not play. Cornerback Brandon Underwood (shoulder) was a full participant in practice last week for the first time since he injured his shoulder in the third preseason game.

“He went through his work last week and didn’t have any setbacks,” McCarthy said, who also commented that the Packers practiced in shells on Thursday because “the medical report wasn’t where it needed to be.”

For the Bears, linebacker Lance Briggs (ankle), tackle Chris Williams (hamstring) and safety Major Wright (hamstring) missed practice. Williams and Wright are not expected to play, but Lance Briggs is listed as probable tonight. Briggs led the Bears with 118 tackles last season.

PASS IT AROUND

Green Bay has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL behind the right arm of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who’s already thrown for 442 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Rodgers has plenty weapons at his disposal with three solid receivers options in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley. Rodgers does a great job of spreading the ball around and he is aware he has to keep his playmakers happy by finding them when they get open.

“The biggest challenge is if there starts to be some dissension with those guys,” Rodgers said. “I just hope they would come to me first. We’ll meet that when we come to it, but I hope we don’t have to go through that.

“Obviously, they all want to make plays. I’m not going to change the way I play. I’m going to throw it to the guys who are open, and I’m going to go through my progressions. I hope they understand that.”

CHESS MATCH

The Packers play a 3-4 defense under coordinator Dom Capers and they disguise their packages very well. The cloaked schemes have helped outside linebacker Clay Matthews sack the quarterback six times in the Packers first two games this season.

The Bears and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz feel they are well prepared for Green Bay’s defense after they played the Cowboys last week and the Chargers in the preseason (both teams also run a 3-4 front seven).

"We try to have some answers for everything," Bears QB Jay Cutler said. "We've hit a few this year, we've been stumped a few times. We spread it out sometimes so if you're going to blitz us, we're going to have some hot answers for you. It's just whether or not a defense is prepared for them or not."

SPECIALS TEAMS

One of the most important parts of a football game often gets overlooked. Special teams play is a critical factor, and many times the performance by that unit directly affects the outcome of a game.

The Packers should be in good shape with their field position if Jordy Nelson keeps producing like he has been.

Nelson ranks second in the NFL in kickoff return average (31 yards per return) which is up from his 25-yard average in 2009. Because of Nelson’s returns, Green Bay is tied for second in average starting field position (35-yard line).

Special teams were a big emphasis for the Packers in the off-season, and their hard work has paid off so far.

“The best part is we haven’t even hit full stride yet,” special teams player Derrick Martin said. “Since March-April, we’ve been working on timing, getting our technique, getting our drops. It’s really been showing. We’ve been working on it all off-season. We’re just wanting to run downhill.”

TRENDS

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Bears and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at Soldier Field.

The under is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 games as underdogs.

Chicago is just 7-18-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC North opponents.

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**Udog** · 09-27-2010, 08:53 AM

NFL

Monday, September 27

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Tips and Trends
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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 46) Green Bay is 2-0 both SU and ATS this season, as they've been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL this year. The Packers are coming off a 27 point blowout win over Buffalo, as the Packers offense led the way. QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to challenge for NFL MVP this year, as he's easily the franchise player for Green Bay. Rodgers was dynamic in the preseason, and he's off to another quick start this year. Rodgers has 4 TD's passes already this year, and he will look to add to that tonight on the road in front of a national audience. Rodgers and the Packers passing game is picking up the slack of a running attack that is coping with the loss of RB Ryan Grant. Defensively, the Packers are only allowing 13.5 PPG, and if that continues Green Bay very well might win another Super Bowl. KR Jordy Nelson has been an unsung hero for this Packers team, as he is averaging 31 yards per return this year which is 2nd best in the NFL. Green Bay has been dominant when playing in Chicago, going 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games at Soldier Field.

Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 25-9 in Packers last 34 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - T Chad Clifton (knee) is probable

Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)

BEARS: Chicago is off to their best start since 2006, the last time the Bears made it to the Super Bowl. Optimism is high because the Bears appear to finally have an offense. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz has instilled an offense that is averaging 23 PPG to start the season. QB Jay Cutler looks very impressive in this offense, as he's competing nearly 70% of his passes for 650 YDS passing this season. Most importantly, Cutler has 5 TD's to only 1 INT for a QB Rating of 121.2 this year. As long as Cutler avoids the turnovers, the Bears are likely going to be in a position to win several games. Defensively, the Bears are allowing 17 PPG, and appear to be back to their hard hitting ways. This Bears defense will have quite the test tonight, as they take on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The Bears are only 7-18-2 ATS in their past 27 games against teams with a winning record. Chicago has struggled with the Packers of late, going 0-4 ATS in their past 4 meetings.

Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games on grass.

Key Injuries - LB Lance Briggs (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/26 - 9/27)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/26 - 9/27)

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