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**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:43 PM

Underdogs worth a look for Monday's key baseball games

A pair of important matchups in baseball’s Eastern divisions get underway Monday night when then Rays and Yankees meet in the Bronx for a four-game series. While over in the National League, the Braves and Phillies open up a three-game set in Philadelphia. The Yankees enter the night with a slim half-game lead on Tampa. Atlanta currently sits three games behind the Phillies.
TAMPA BAY RAYS (89-59)
at NEW YORK YANKEES (90-59)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: New York -121, Tampa Bay +111 Total: 9.5

The Rays look to once again leapfrog the Yankees for first in the AL East when they send Matt Garza (14-8, 3.88 ERA) to the hill Monday. The Yankees counter with Ivan Nova (1-0, 4.30 ERA) in a rematch of starters from last Tuesday that resulted in a wild 8-7 Yankee win in Tampa. Garza was tagged for six runs on nine hits in that game and failed to make it out of the fifth inning. Nova wasn’t much better, giving up six runs of his own over 4.2 IP.

It’s been a bit of struggle recently for Garza, who also gave up six runs on nine hits to the Red Sox on September 8. He’s surrendered six home runs over his last two starts, both Tampa losses. Prior to that, he had been tremendous, allowing just three runs combined over four starts.

Last Tuesday marked the first time Nova had been knocked around in his big-league career. The six earned runs were the most he’s allowed in any of his five starts this year. He’s been effective in the rotation, however, as the Yankees have won his last four starts with three of them being one-run games.

Despite Nova’s perfect record, the FoxSheets like the Rays on Monday night:

Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts. (36-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +19 units. Rating = 2*).

ATLANTA BRAVES (86-64)
at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (89-61)

First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: Philadelphia -154, Atlanta +144 Total: 8

Philadelphia hopes left-hander Cole Hamels (11-10, 3.01 ERA) continues his hot streak when the Phillies open up a three-game series with the Braves Monday night. Hamels has been terrific as of late, going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.44 over his last three starts. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past five outings. He’s had mixed success in his career against the Braves, going 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 17 lifetime starts. The Phillies are 9-8 in those games.

Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 4.64 ERA) will counter for Atlanta. Unlike Hamels, Jurrjens has struggled lately, going 1-2 over his last three starts with a 6.32 ERA. He’s been a victim of the long-ball, giving up two home runs in each of last two outings, losses to Washington and St. Louis. He has pitched well against the Phillies in his career, going 3-3 with a stellar 2.56 ERA. However, the Braves are just 4-5 in Jurrjens nine starts against Philadelphia.

Even though Hamels and Jurrjens appear headed in opposite directions, the FoxSheets think the Braves offer good value:

Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. (142-157 since 1997.) (47.5%, +102.7 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:45 PM

Rays and Yankees top Monday MLB odds

The final two weeks of baseball's regular season begin with a bang in the Bronx where the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays for a four-game series beginning Monday evening. The AL East title will be on the line with a more favorable ALDS matchup the prize for the eventual winner.

New York carried a half-game lead over the Rays into Sunday. The Yankees were finishing a series in Baltimore with Andy Pettitte making his first start in over two months against Chris Tillman and the O's. Meanwhile down in the Sunshine State, Tampa Bay was closing out its six-game homestand with Randy Niemann taking on former Rays hurler Scott Kazmir and the Angels.

The Yanks were decided 160 favorites in their contest at Camden Yards with the Rays thick 200 chalk against the Halos.

This four-game set is obviously important to both clubs, but especially critical for the Yankees' chances to win the division. Once this series ends New York will close out its season with six games versus the Red Sox and three against the Blue Jays. The Yankees will be on the road for the final six battles of their regular season slate.

Tampa Bay will leave New York after this series for a six-game homestand against the Mariners and Orioles before closing the season with four in Kansas City. The schedule definitely favors the Rays.

Monday's pitching matchup is a sequel to the Sept. 14 game at Tropicana Field with Matt Garza (17-12, 3.88) in line for the Rays opposite New York's Ivan Nova (4-1, 4.30).

New York pulled that game out in 10 innings by an 8-7 count with neither Garza nor Nova lasting five innings. Both hurlers worked 4 2/3 innings while allowing six earned runs. Garza, a 135 MLB odds favorite, served up a pair of dingers to Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez with Nova touched for a long ball off Carlos Peña's lumber.

Garza's only other outing versus New York this season was July 31, also at the Trop. The right-hander went seven frames and allowed four runs, leaving the game in a 4-4 deadlock. Cano's solo blast in the top of the ninth off Rafael Soriano won it for the Yanks who closed plus 105 on the money line.

The 2009 season saw Garza get in two starts at Yankee Stadium. Tampa Bay lost both despite Garza's strong efforts, a combined 12 innings with only one earned run scoring. The former Fresno State star no-decisioned in each contest.

Nova's only experience against the Tampa Bay lineup was the game last week. This will be his third start in front of the home fans. New York won the previous two with Nova not figuring into the decisions.

Monday's Big Apple weather is looking nice, though a bit cool. Sunny skies are forecast throughout the day with a game-time temp in the upper-60s. Winds are currently listed out of the north around 10 mph (3B across to 1B).

The series continues Tuesday with James Shields (16-14, 4.86) on the mound for Tampa Bay against New York's Phil Hughes (18-9, 4.31). All four games this week are 4:05 p.m. PT first pitches.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:46 PM

MLB Betting: Braves open set in Philadelphia

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a hot September, going 14-3 in their first 17 games of the season’s homestretch month. Monday night’s MLB slate has Charlie Manuel’s club opening a three-game set against the Atlanta Braves, who hope to pick up ground on the NL East Division leaders.

Phillies southpaw Cole Hamels (11-10, 3.01 ERA) is listed to start against Atlanta’s right-hander Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 4.64 ERA). The two hurlers squared off in a July 6 meeting between the rivals, won by Atlanta, 6-3, in 11 innings as a 124 road dog.

Hamels allowed three runs in seven innings (117 pitches) while Jurrjens gave up two hits over six frames (89 pitches). Neither starter got a decision in the marathon, which saw Atlanta’s three 11th-inning runs lift the matchup ‘over’ its ‘total’ of 8 ½.

Hamels picked up a fourth straight victory in Tuesday’s 2-1 win for Philadelphia as a 153 road favorite against the Florida Marlins. The 26-year-old notched 13 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings (127 pitches) while allowing five hits.

Philly’s Jayson Werth brought in his squad’s go-ahead run with a ground out that scored Shane Victorino. Werth finished with a 0-for-4 night while Victorino went 2-for-4.

The duel’s combined three runs plunged below the ‘total’ of eight, bringing the ‘under’ to 7-1 in Hamels’ last eight starts. Philadelphia’s three relievers allowed one hit in the final 2 1/3 innings, with closer Brad Lidge earning a save.

The Phillies are 8-7 in Hamels’ 15 home outings, with the MLB odds ‘under’ cashing at 10-5. The California native has allowed a stingy .287 OBP and 1.11 WHIP in that stretch.

Jurrjens suffered a second straight loss in Tuesday’s 6-0 defeat for Atlanta as a 198 home favorite against the Washington Nationals. The 24-year-old gave up four runs in five innings (89 pitches), including two long balls.

Braves catcher Brian McCann hit 2-for-4, striking out twice. The five-time All-Star has gone 8-for-35 in 11 games against the Phillies.

The shutout’s six runs ducked below the ‘total’ of eight. The ‘under’ is 10-7 in Atlanta’s first 17 games of September.

The Braves are 4-6 in Jurrjens’ 10 road starts, with the baseball betting ‘total’ an even 5-5. Atlanta has given up six RPG in that span, with the Curacao native allowing a .315 OBP and 1.31 WHIP.

Bobby Cox’ crew is 5-1 in its last six games against the Phillies, with the ‘over’ going 4-2. Atlanta has outscored Philly, 32-18, in that stretch.

Philadelphia is 47-27 in its first 74 home dates, with the ‘under’ cashing at 39-34-1. The Braves are 33-41 in their first 74 road games, with the ‘over’ going 36-35-3.

Monday’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (PT). The weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for a 65-degree night, with 14 mph winds blowing inward.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:49 PM

Preview: Rays (89-59) at Yankees (90-59)

Game: 1
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: September 20, 2010 7:05 PM EDT

The Tampa Bay Rays say they're concentrated on winning the AL East, while the New York Yankees seem to be more interested in opening the postseason at full strength - wherever they may have to travel.

For now, they're glad to be home.

A 3-6 road trip has sliced the Yankees' lead over the Rays to one-half game heading into the rivals' final regular season series, a four-game showdown that begins Monday night in the Bronx.

New York (90-59) and Tampa Bay (89-59) have boasted baseball's two best records all summer, yet both have shown signs of weakness as the postseason draws closer.

But an 8-9 September for the Yankees and an 8-8 month for the Rays did little to affect them in the standings. Barring a miraculous turnaround by Boston - currently 6 1/2 games back of Tampa Bay - they'll both be headed to the playoffs.

Even with baseball's best road record (43-30), the Rays want to make sure any potential decisive game is at Tropicana Field.

"We want home-field advantage for all the reasons," manager Joe Maddon told the Rays' official website. "If you get there and end up playing Minnesota, their home record is (outstanding). And you don't want to have to play an extra game up there - you'd rather play it down here. Yankee Stadium is the same way. Texas. Whatever way it shakes out, you'd rather play that extra game (at home)."

The Yankees' three previous wild-card entries in the playoffs have resulted in immediate exits, but general manager Brian Cashman doesn't seem concerned.

"You want to be macho and say, 'American League East at all costs,'" Cashman told MLB.com. "Over time, you get educated. ... I've been beaten by a wild-card Red Sox team in '04. I've been beaten by the wild-card Florida Marlins in the World Series in '03. I'm not saying, 'Give me the wild card.' I'm just saying we have to realize perspective. We're in this to try to win a World Series."

New York hasn't looked too prepared for the postseason lately. The Yankees have lost 9 of 13 after falling 4-3 in 11 innings Sunday at Baltimore, where Mariano Rivera blew his second save in nine days.

The 3-6 trip cut two games off New York's division lead.

"This was a tough road trip,' manager Joe Girardi said. "We have to go home, and that's a good thing.'

Both Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira were held out of the starting lineup Sunday, though the stars figure to be back to face Matt Garza (14-8, 3.88 ERA).

The right-hander has plenty to prove after surrendering six homers over his last two starts. Rodriguez and Robinson Cano took him deep Tuesday, when Garza allowed six runs over 4 2-3 innings in an 8-7, 10-inning loss.

Rodriguez is 9 for 20 with two home runs off Garza, while Nick Swisher is 6 for 13 with three homers.

The Yankees and Rays played three one-run games in St. Petersburg last week, none as controversial as Wednesday's finale. Shortstop Derek Jeter sold to the umpires that a Chad Qualls pitch in the seventh inning had hit him, later admitting that it struck his bat.

Maddon was ejected for arguing the call, and while Curtis Granderson's ensuing two-run homer gave the Yankees a one-run lead, Tampa Bay rallied to win 4-3.

Maddon was more calm after the game.

"There's several thespians throughout baseball," Maddon said. "I thought Derek did a great job, and I applaud it, because I wish our guys would do the same thing."

Maddon's club is hitting .212 over its last seven games, an eight-day stretch that concluded with a 6-3 home loss to the Angels on Sunday.

The Rays didn't have much trouble offensively against Ivan Nova (1-0, 4.30) in Tuesday's loss, however. Tampa Bay roughed up the rookie for six runs over 4 2-3 innings, including a fifth-inning homer by Carlos Pena.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:50 PM

Preview: Braves (86-64) at Phillies (89-61)

Game: 1
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Date: September 20, 2010 7:05 PM EDT

With a three-game lead in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to make their grip on the division much stronger when they open up a three-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves on Monday.

Philadelphia (89-61) is the hottest team in baseball at the right time, having won seven straight and 19 of 23 since Aug. 27 - the best record in the majors over that span.

Jason Werth's two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth Sunday gave the Phillies a 7-6 win over Washington and their second consecutive series sweep.

A big part of the Phillies' recent success is due to their trio of aces. Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels are a combined 16-6 since Philadelphia acquired Oswalt from Houston on July 29. All three top starters are scheduled to pitch in this series.

Hamels (11-10, 3.01 ERA) will take the mound Monday, looking to win a career-best fifth consecutive start.

The left-hander didn't allow a run in any of the first three starts of his win streak. He yielded a first-inning run to Florida on Tuesday, snapping his scoreless streak at 25 innings. However, that was the only run Hamels allowed in 6 2-3 innings of Philadelphia 2-1 victory.

He struck out a season-high 13, continuing his bounce-back season from a 2009 in which he posted a career-worst 4.32 ERA.

"He definitely feels much better about himself,' manager Charlie Manuel said. "Last year, one of his biggest problems was he had high expectations on himself and he never went through adversity where he struggled and didn't pitch good, but that's part of growing up at the major league level."

Despite his strong overall turnaround, Hamels has had a hard time against the Braves this season, posting a 1-1 record with a 6.39 ERA over three starts.

Atlanta (86-64) has taken seven of 12 from the Phillies in 2010, including five of the last six.

Jair Jurrjens was expected to oppose Hamels, but a sore knee is forcing him to sit out and that has prompted the Braves to start a pitcher who has never appeared in the majors.

Brandon Beachy was at the team's instructional league program in Florida when he got the call to start this game.

The 24-year-old right-hander was 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA as a starter and reliever for Triple-A Gwinnett and Double-A Mississippi this season.

Beachy takes the mound with Atlanta leading the wild-card race after Derrek Lee hit a go-ahead grand slam in a 6-3 victory over the Mets on Sunday.

"There's no secret. These are big games," Lee said. "This is the best part of baseball."

**jt4545** · 09-20-2010, 05:51 PM

Thanks and good luck star

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:52 PM

Preview: Rangers (83-65) at Angels (73-76)

Game: 1
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Date: September 20, 2010 10:05 PM EDT

As they close in on their first AL West title in 11 years, the Texas Rangers probably aren't too thrilled to face Jered Weaver on the road.

The right-hander will try to keep the Rangers from moving a step closer to the postseason by maintaining his perfect record against them in Anaheim on Monday night.

Texas (83-65) has a nine-game lead over Oakland, but continued its recent struggles away from home in the start of a 10-game swing against its three divisional foes.

The Rangers dropped two of three last-place Seattle over the weekend, and are 7-15 on the road since Aug. 7. In Sunday's 2-1 defeat, Texas had 10 hits but left 11 runners on base.

"We just couldn't get the big hit to score runs today," second baseman Ian Kinsler said.

The Rangers' chances of bouncing back don't appear strong against Weaver (12-11, 2.96 ERA), who has a major league-best 1.56 ERA at home this season. The right-hander, though, is 3-3 in his past 10 starts there despite a 1.23 ERA, and he's received no more than three runs of support per outing.

Weaver appears to have a better chance to collect a victory with the Rangers arriving. He's 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine career home starts against Texas, and has won four consecutive matchups there including two this season.

Weaver has given up one unearned run, six hits and five walks in those two starts, and is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four meetings this season. He's 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA entering his 19th career start against the Rangers, the most versus an opponent.

Weaver is coming off one of the best performances of his career, a 7-0 victory Wednesday in Cleveland. He retired 21 of 22 batters and struck out seven while snapping his career-worst slide at four.

Another strong outing from Weaver could give the Angels their season-high fifth straight home victory after a 1-8 stretch there. Los Angeles enters this series after taking two of three over AL wild-card leader Tampa Bay to finish off a six-game trip.

In Sunday's 6-3 victory, Bobby Abreu had a pair of home runs and rookie Peter Bourjos hit a tiebreaking three-run shot.

"Right now we're playing our game," Abreu said. "We're pitching good and we're scoring some runs. The whole thing."

The Angels will try to keep rolling against Derek Holland (3-3, 4.12), who has struggled on the road throughout his brief career but was impressive in his previous outing there.

The left-hander is 2-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 13 lifetime starts away from home over the last two seasons, but allowed three hits over five scoreless innings in an 8-1 win over Toronto on Sept. 8. Holland followed by giving up four runs - one earned - and four hits over four frames Tuesday in an 11-4 win against Detroit.

Holland is 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA in four career starts against the Angels, and earned a 4-3 win on May 17 at home by allowing three runs over 5 1-3 innings.

Los Angeles has won four of six at home over its AL West rivals, but trails the season series 7-5.

Nelson Cruz, who is 7 for 29 against Weaver, is batting .391 for five homers and seven RBIs in an 11-game hitting streak.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:53 PM

Preview: Reds (84-66) at Brewers (69-79)

Game: 1
Venue: Miller Park
Date: September 20, 2010 8:10 PM EDT

The Cincinnati Reds have dropped four of five series and are four games below .500 in September, yet they'd need to completely collapse over the final two weeks to fail to win the NL Central.

Facing the Milwaukee Brewers will likely bring them a step closer to their first division title in 15 years.

The Reds have won seven of eight against the Brewers - success they'll hope to continue Monday at Miller Park in the opener of a three-game series.

Cincinnati (84-66) has the NL's most productive offense (4.91 runs per game), but had averaged just 3.54 runs while dropping nine of 13 prior to an 11-1 victory Saturday in Houston.

The Reds had 11 hits Sunday - just two fewer than they had the night before - but couldn't make them count in a 4-3 loss.

"It still hurts today but we gotta move on to Milwaukee and play them tougher than we played today,' manager Dusty Baker said.

The loss dropped Cincinnati to 7-11 in September, but Baker's club has a six-game lead over St. Louis in the Central as it seeks its first playoff appearance since 1995.

The Reds have six games left against the Brewers (69-79), and that's great news for the division leaders - particularly that slumping offense. Cincinnati has averaged 6.75 runs while going 7-1 in the season series versus Milwaukee, with Joey Votto (.484, 10 RBIs) and Scott Rolen (.500, 10 RBIs) leading the charge.

Rolen and Votto went a combined 4 for 4 against probable Monday starter Chris Capuano (3-4, 4.11 ERA) on July 27, when the left-hander gave up four runs and six hits over three innings out of the bullpen in a 12-4 Milwaukee loss.

Capuano has since moved to the Brewers rotation, an excellent chance for the former All-Star to prove himself after a second Tommy John surgery.

After a rough first start, he's been solid. Capuano has a 2.45 ERA in his last three outings, but a first-inning, three-run homer from Houston's Chris Johnson was enough to hand him a 3-2 loss Tuesday.

From there, Capuano pitched 5 1-3 scoreless innings.

"It all came down to one pitch,' Milwaukee manager Ken Macha said. "I think Cappy was trying to go away, and it wound up being a homer."

The Brewers have totaled only 21 runs over their last nine games, but two excellent pitching performances in San Francisco gave them a shot at a road sweep Sunday. Chris Narveson couldn't follow Randy Wolf and Yovani Gallardo's efforts, though, getting chased in the fifth inning of a 9-2 loss.

The lineup's overall slump hasn't extended to Ryan Braun. Milwaukee's left fielder is hitting .357 (15 for 42) with four homers and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games.

He's batting only .226 this season against Cincinnati and is 3 for 14 lifetime against Homer Bailey (3-3, 4.85), but it's no certainty the Reds right-hander will even take the ball for Monday's opener. Bailey left his start Wednesday against Arizona after three innings with dizziness, and Baker wants to talk to trainer Paul Lessard before giving the 24-year-old the green light for Monday.

"I don't know yet," Baker said. "I haven't talked to him yet about Homer. He says he's doing better. I hope (he can pitch)."

Bailey is 0-2 with a 6.44 ERA in five career starts versus Milwaukee. Prince Fielder is 4 for 10 with three extra-base hits and four walks off Bailey.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-20-2010, 05:54 PM

Preview: White Sox (79-70) at Athletics (74-74)

Game: 1
Venue: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Date: September 20, 2010 10:05 PM EDT

The Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox are both in second place in their respective divisions, virtually eliminated from playoff contention. The Athletics, though, have played much better over the last month.

After splitting a six-game road trip, Oakland returns home Monday to open a three-game series against Chicago, which will try to avoid a seventh straight loss.

The Athletics (74-74) have a nine-game deficit in the AL West while the White Sox (79-70) are 10 games out in the Central after losing six straight, including a 9-7 loss to Detroit in 11 innings Sunday.

Oakland, meanwhile, has won nine of 15 after taking two of three at Minnesota over the weekend. Mark Ellis hit a two-run homer and Bobby Cramer picked up his second major league win in a 6-2 victory Sunday.

"We're still going out playing like (winning the AL West) is still a possibility," manager Bob Geren told Oakland's official website. "We want to win every game we can when we step on the field."

Geren's club has been especially good at home, going 20-10 there since July 10. It won two of three in Oakland against the White Sox from July 23-25. The teams have split six meetings overall this season.

The Athletics look to continue finishing strong when they hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (14-9, 3.47 ERA), who will try a second time for his 15th win.

Gonzalez suffered his first loss in six starts Tuesday against Kansas City, giving up a season-high seven runs in two innings of an 11-3 defeat.

The left-hander is 8-3 with a 2.70 ERA at home, where he has won his last four decisions. However, he is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox, including a loss Aug. 1 at Chicago in which he allowed four runs but struck out 11 in eight innings of a 4-1 defeat.

The White Sox, who have been outscored 50-23 during their six-game losing streak, will open the series by sending slumping Gavin Floyd (10-13, 4.08) to the mound.

The right-hander is 2-5 with a 6.07 ERA and a .347 opponent batting average in his last seven starts. He gave up six runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 9-3 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday.

Floyd also opposed Gonzalez last month, and picked up the win after yielding one run in seven innings to improve to 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in five career starts against the Athletics.

The White Sox haven't lost seven in a row since April 28-May 5, 2008. They have hit .179 with runners in scoring position during their current losing streak, including 4 for 24 Sunday when they rallied for four runs in the ninth but fell short in extra innings as they finished a homestand that included sweeps at the hands of Central rivals Minnesota and the Tigers.

"We came in against Minnesota, everything on the line, and they beat us," catcher A.J. Pierzynski said. "Then, this series we were playing hard, everyone's giving what they got, it's just not working out. That's the frustrating part."

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