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**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 05:55 PM

Two games on tap for Monday night

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BALTIMORE RAVENS
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5)

The Jets open up their new stadium against a Ravens team that many think will win the Super Bowl this year.
Some familiar faces will be making their debuts with new teams. The Jets now have future Hall-of-Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson, while the Ravens signed WR Anquan Boldin in the offseason and added WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh to their roster a few weeks ago.

Both teams appear to be near full strength with Jets CB Darrelle Revis expected to handle the much bigger Boldin in one-on-one coverage. The Ravens will be without OT Jared Gaither and massive rookie nose tackle Terrence Cody, but CB Lardarius Webb will be able to start in Baltimore’s suspect secondary.

Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring affair, which favors Baltimore, according to this FoxSheets trend.

BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 26.3, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 1*).

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-4.5)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Two division foes clash in the final game of Week 1. San Diego has won five straight meetings, including two blowouts last year (37-7 at KC and 43-14 in San Diego).

The Super Bowl-hopeful Chargers are a mess. Top WR Vincent Jackson is suspended, LT Marcus McNeill is still holding out, and LB Shawne Merriman, who also held out of training camp, is doubtful for Monday because of an Achilles injury. Rookie RB Ryan Mathews was drafted to replace LaDainian Tomlinson, and should have success against a Chiefs run defense which ranked 2nd-to-last in the NFL last year (157 YPG).

Kansas City is also banged up. LB Tamba Hali is questionable with a foot injury, rookie WR Dexter McCluster has the flu and RT Ryan O’Callaghan is doubtful with a groin injury.

The FoxSheets like San Diego in this one.

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, team that had a terrible record last season (<=25%) playing a team had a winning record last year. (35-12 since 1983.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 05:56 PM

Underdogs offer value in NL East action

With the teams in the American League playing mostly for seeding at this juncture, the playoff picture shifts focus to the National League, where the division races remain tight. The Padres and Giants find themselves tied for first in the West, while Philadelphia holds a one-game lead over Atlanta in the East entering tonight’s action. The Braves will look to even things atop the standings when they open a three-game set with the Nationals at Turner Field tonight. Meanwhile, the Phillies will try to keep them at bay when they visit Florida for a three-game series of their own.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (60-83)
at ATLANTA BRAVES (82-62)

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: Atlanta -180, Washington +170 Total: 8.5
The Braves hope to close the gap in the East when they send Derek Lowe (12-12, 4.42 ERA) to the hill to face the Nationals. Atlanta has been stuck in neutral as of late, splitting a home series with St. Louis after dropping two of three to both the Pirates and Marlins. Lowe has also been spinning his wheels recently. He’s 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts, but is coming off a solid outing against Pittsburgh where he went six innings and gave up just one run. The Nationals have given him plenty of trouble, however. Dating back to last year, Lowe has lost his last four starts against Washington. In three of those starts, Lowe was a favorite of -190 or higher.

The Nationals hope to end a five-game losing streak with rookie Yunesky Maya. It’ll be just the second career start for Maya. The 29-year-old Cuban defector made his major- league debut last time out on September 7. He surrendered four runs on five hits over five innings in a 4-1 loss to the Mets.

Given Atlanta’s recent play and Lowe’s lack of success against Washington, there seems to be value in the Nationals tonight. Here’s what the FoxSheets say:

Play On - Road teams (WASHINGTON) - poor fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season, after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits. (48-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (53.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 2*).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (83-61)
at FLORIDA MARLINS (73-69)

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. EDT
Sports.com Line: Philadelphia -128, Florida +118 Total: 9.5
While the Braves have struggled, the Phillies have been surging, winning 10 of their last 13 games to put themselves atop the East standings. Philadelphia heads to Miami just one week after winning three-of-four against the Marlins in Philadelphia. Joe Blanton (6-6, 5.15 ERA) gets the call for the Phillies while left-hander Andrew Miller (1-1, 6.16 ERA) will start for the Marlins.

Blanton should be no stranger to this Marlin team as he faced them last time out. In that start, Blanton gave up four runs (two earned) and scattered six hits over 6.1 IP. He didn’t factor into the decision as the Phillies won 8-7. Blanton hasn’t lost a decision since July 21, and the Phillies are 6-1 in his last seven starts. However, the biggest problem for Blanton this year has been on the road. He’s just 2-4 with a 6.21 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park.

Like Blanton, Marlins starter Andrew Miller saw action in last week’s series in Philadelphia. He was tagged for seven runs on 11 hits and lasted just four innings as the Phillies went on to win 11-7 on September 8. Making just his fourth start of the season tonight, Miller has pitched well at home, yielding two runs over 10 innings of work. The Phillies have been a thorn in Miller’s side, though. In six starts against Philadelphia, Miller is 0-4 with a 5.58 ERA.

Although Florida seems to be out of the playoff picture, the FoxSheets like their underdog status tonight:

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (FLORIDA) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in September games. (66-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +44.1 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 05:58 PM

Monday Night Showdowns

The opening week of the NFL season concludes with a pair of AFC games on Monday night. The Chiefs host their first primetime game at Arrowhead Stadium since 2004, as Kansas City entertains reigning AFC West champion San Diego in the late kickoff. The night begins at the new Meadowlands with the Ravens trying to knock off the Jets in a battle of the last two runner-ups in the AFC.

Ravens at Jets (-2 ½, 35 ½) - 7:00 PM EST

Many eyes will be on this contest, not only because it's the first Monday Night Football game of the season, but fans are curious if the Jets can live up to the hype. Rex Ryan's club was showcased on HBO's "Hard Knocks" during training camp and wants to prove that last season's run to the AFC Title Game was no fluke. The Ravens, meanwhile, are quietly becoming a difficult team to handle on both sides of the ball after the pickups of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to boost the receiving corps.

Baltimore looked strong in the preseason with a 3-1 SU/ATS record, as the Ravens fell in their finale at St. Louis. The defense stepped up in the three wins by limiting the opposition to 25 total points. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are a profitable 9-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, but lost at Green Bay on a Monday Night last season as four-point 'dogs, 27-14. Playing on the road under the Monday Night lights for the Ravens has not been something to look forward to, as Baltimore is 1-6 SU since 2005, with the lone victory coming in a 16-0 shutout at Cleveland last season.

The Jets started last season at 3-0 in Ryan's debut, but went on to lost seven of their next 11 games. New York received a huge break with Indianapolis and Cincinnati wrapping up its divisions, as the Jets knocked off each club to clinch a playoff berth. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC Championship before falling at Indianapolis, as Mark Sanchez enters his second season at quarterback. New York finished the preseason at a pedestrian 2-2 SU/ATS, with both losses coming at home to the Giants and Redskins.

Playing division opponents was an issue for Ryan's squad last season, going 2-4 SU/ATS against the AFC East. However, when the Jets faced non-divisional foes in 2009, they finished 9-4 SU/ATS. The Jets haven't hosted a Monday Night game since a 2005 loss to the Patriots, as New York is 1-4 SU/ATS the last five Monday Night contests.

Each team has won their last two season openers, while Baltimore has cashed the 'over' in Harbaugh's two road series openers at Pittsburgh ('08) and San Diego ('09). These two clubs are meeting in the regular season for the first since 2007 when the Ravens failed to cover as 9 ½-point home 'chalk' in a 20-13 victory.

Chargers (-4 ½, 45) at Chiefs - 10:15 PM EST

These AFC West rivals hook up in Western Missouri as San Diego moves forward this season without several vital pieces of last season's 13-3 squad. Gone are LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie, while top receiver Vincent Jackson starts a three-game suspension along with a holdout. The Chiefs, meanwhile, look to reclaim the competitive days of 2003 when Kansas City was the top-seed in the AFC, as this club has won 10 games combined over the last three seasons.

San Diego began last season at 2-3, but Norv Turner's team rattled off 11 consecutive wins to clinch their fourth straight AFC West title. The season ended in disappointment when the upstart Jets traveled to Southern California and eliminated the Bolts, 17-14 in the second round of the playoffs. The Chargers do have it easy with six games every season against the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders, as San Diego is 20-4 SU and 15-8-1 ATS versus division foes since 2006. San Diego dominated Kansas City twice last season, outscoring the Chiefs, 80-21 in a pair of easy victories.

Todd Haley enters his second season as the head coach in Kansas City, as the team bolstered its coaching staff with the hiring of Charlie Weis as the offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel to anchor the defense. Arrowhead Stadium used to be a venue in which the opposition feared, but that has not been the case over the last three seasons. Backing the Chiefs at home is a risky proposition for bettors, as Kansas City owns a 6-17-1 ATS mark since 2007, including only four SU wins. The Chiefs have not won a season opener since Dick Vermeil coached in 2005, a span of four games.

The Chargers needed a last-minute rally to knock off the Raiders in last season's Monday Night opener, 24-20 as 10 ½-point road favorites. San Diego has won each of the last three meetings at Arrowhead, with Kansas City's last home win in this series coming in 2006.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- In 2008, the 'over' hit in 13 of 17 Monday Night games, making it incredibly fun and profitable for the betting public. Things evened out a bit after a hot 'over' start last season, finishing 10-7 to the 'over.' Here is an interesting number regarding 'overs' the last two seasons: The 'over' is 16-1-1 the first eight weeks of the last two seasons, meaning the offenses are a little ahead of the defenses early on.

-- Looking ahead to some of the key matchups in Week 2, the Jets stay at home to battle the Patriots, while the Ravens head to Cincinnati for an AFC North showdown. The two primetime games are very intriguing with the Manning brothers hooking up in Indianapolis on Sunday night when the Colts host the Giants. The week wraps up in San Francisco when the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints take on the upstart 49ers.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 06:01 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Brewers at Astros – The Astros are 6-0 since July 06, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $600.

Nationals at Braves – The Braves are 9-0 since May 16, 2010 at home when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $900.

Cubs at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 5-0 since April 28, 2010 when Jaime Garcia starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $500.

Red Sox at Mariners – The Mariners are 8-0 since May 20, 2010 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $960.

Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 14-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1490. The Marlins are 6-0 since July 05, 2010 after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $855.

Pirates at Mets – The Pirates are 0-6 since April 30, 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Orioles – The Blue Jays are 10-0 since May 12, 2010 vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1000. The Orioles are 0-6 since April 23, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Yankees at Rays – The Yankees are 6-0 since April 28, 2010 as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $600. The Rays are 7-0 since May 27, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $725

Diamondbacks at Reds – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since June 16, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Reds are 10-0 since June 06, 2010 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $1000.

Padres at Rockies – The Padres are 0-6 since August 28, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $680 when playing against. The Rockies are 12-0 since April 24, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $1220.

**The Boomaster** · 09-13-2010, 06:02 PM

goodluck Bummer

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 07:03 PM

NFL Odds: Week 1 trends and angles

Matt Cassell and the Chiefs host the Chargers in the second MNF game.
It’s not that difficult to put together a narrative that takes the Kansas City Chiefs from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2010. Of course, a few bounces will have to go their way, beginning on Sept. 13 when they host the San Diego Chargers.

Kansas City has the easiest NFL matchup schedule, an elite running game and the Chiefs did a great job of addressing their biggest weaknesses in the offseason.

The Chargers may find that this isn’t the same team they beat twice last season by a combined score of 80-21.

Kansas City has jumped out of the starting gate in fine fashion in the past, cashing at a 16-9-2 clip against the NFL spread in its past 27 season openers. The Chiefs have also come away with the cash at a very profitable 42-21-2 clip as underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

The home team has ‘covered’ at a 9-5-1 clip in the last 15 showdowns between these division rivals. The SU winner is 25-5-2 ATS.

San Diego has jumped the number in nine straight games as road favorites versus an opponent with revenge. Conversely, Kansas City has strayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven home debuts.

Barry Daniels provided trends and angles for the first nine games on the Week 1 NFL menu. Notable numbers for the remainder of the slate appear below.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-13-2010, 07:04 PM

NFL Odds: Jets, Ravens in ESPN twin-bill

The New York Jets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight season openers.
If New York Jets coach Rex Ryan creates a game-plan half as well as he curses, then his club is a lock at home against the Baltimore Ravens during the ESPN Monday night telecast.

After an offseason of big signings, and the team being the centerpiece of HBO's reality series Hard Knocks, the Jets have been the talk of the NFL.

But if it's a hard knocks brawl New York wants, the Ravens welcome it.

Ryan was the defensive line coach for the 2000 Ravens team that set an NFL record for fewest points allowed (165). The defense carried Baltimore to the Super Bowl title despite the team being so bereft of offense that at one point it went five straight games without scoring a touchdown.

During Ryan's 10 seasons in Charm City, the Ravens allowed fewer points than any other defense, as well as the fewest running yards.

However, Baltimore finally seems to realize what NFL teams unblessed by great defenses have recognized for years; you must score a lot to win consistently. The Ravens latest move came last week when they signed receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who will most likely be the third receiver.

Baltimore is expected to try more of a no-huddle offense this year with Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason and Houshmandzadeh catching the ball. Because Donte' Stallworth is sidelined with a broke foot, Boldin must prove he can go vertical from the start Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw 72 passes of 20-plus yards in 2009. Boldin has been a deep target just 10 times in the past two seasons.

The Jets' success is dependent upon an excellent running game and the play of an absurdly talented cornerback. Neither is guaranteed (or even likely) to perform at the same level this season.

The good news is that quarterback Mark Sanchez's maturity should help the passing offense look more like last year's postseason and less like last year's regular season.

All-pro cornerback Darrelle Revis had one week of practice to get ready for Monday night's season opener. But that doesn't mean he'll be rusty. Revis kept himself in shape while AWOL.

If the Jets have to ask Sanchez to win the game by throwing the ball deep, they'll be in trouble. Baltimore will stack the box, send blitzes and dare him to make the plays he hasn't made in the preseason.

All eyes will be on Sanchez. However, left guard, not quarterback, could turn out to be New York's weakest link. The Jets cut Pro Bowl left guard Alan Faneca, and his potential replacements have been shaky.

The Ravens and Jets will be facing off for the first time since 2007. Baltimore has won four meetings in a row SU and cashed in five of the past six scuffles.

The Ravens have dropped seven of their last 11 as Monday night pups, but they have ‘covered' six straight in September.

The Jets are 2-4 in their last six as Monday night ‘chalk and 1-4 ATS on in their last five Monday night appearances.

New York is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight season openers, but a dismal 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 home lid-lifters.

The Jets have zipped ‘over' in five of their last six when toiling on Monday. Conversely, Baltimore has ducked below the limit in nine of its last 12 during Week 1 and in four of five on Monday.

Most offshore books monitored by the Don Best odds product opened New York as a three-point favorite, with the ‘total' set at 37 ½. Don't forget to check the weather forecast for this game, as well as the other Monday night game between the Chargers and Chiefs in Kansas City.

**jt4545** · 09-13-2010, 07:07 PM

Thanks and good luck star

**Dat Boi E** · 09-13-2010, 07:32 PM

good luck tonight, bum!

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