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**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:36 PM

Wild weekend on tap for NL West contenders

The NFL season is finally upon us, but let’s not overlook some of the pennant races heating up in the National League. Since it’s September, the Colorado Rockies, in the words of Carly Simon, are “Coming Around Again.” After going 20-8 in September of 2007 and 18-9 in 2009 to make runs to the postseason, the Rockies are on a seven-game win streak and cut both their deficits in the NL Wild Card and NL West to 3.5 games.The Giants and Padres continue their four-game series at Petco with the Giants having struck first Thursday with a 7-3 win to cut the Padres lead to just one game entering the weekend.
Arizona at Colorado
(Friday through Sunday)

The Diamondbacks will look to play the role of the spoiler as they enter Coors Field for a big three-game series for the Rockies. These two teams have split their 12 previous meetings this season.

Arizona will throw the trio of Joe Saunders, Rodrigo Lopez and Ian Kennedy. While Kennedy has enjoyed recent success (3-0, 2.70 ERA in his last six starts), Saunders and Lopez have combined to win just two games since the All-Star break.

The Rockies will counter with Jorge De La Rosa, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jhoulys Chacin. De La Rosa and Chacin have combined to go 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA since August 22, while Jimenez is 9-1 with a 3.35 ERA at Coors Field this season. De La Rosa is 8-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his 12 September starts with Colorado.

The oddsmakers set the line at –200 for De La Rosa and the Rockies for Friday. Arizona’s offense has struggled in its past four games (scored six total runs) and will be hard pressed to break out of the slump against a formidable trio like Colorado has.

FoxSheets favors the Rockies on Friday because of this. ARIZONA is 5-18 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.1, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 2*).

While this stat from FoxSheets makes the Rockies the play for the entire weekend. ARIZONA is 6-19 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in road games in September games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 0*).

San Francisco at San Diego
(Friday through Sunday)

The Giants will look to replace the Padres for first place in the NL West as their four-game series continues tonight at Petco Park. The Giants victory Thursday puts them one game back of San Diego in the West and one game behind the Braves in the NL Wild Card. With the Rockies breathing down both of their necks, each of these teams is desperate to grab a hold of the division.

The Giants will throw the trio of Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum. The trio has not fared well against San Diego this season, combining to go 0-4 with a 3.89 ERA in six starts.

The Padres will counter with trio of Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos. Richard and Latos are a combined 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA in their eight starts against the Giants this season, while Tim Stauffer is making his first start against the Giants in 2010.

Sports.com sets the line at Giants -106 and Padres –104 on Friday, but expect the Padres to be favored on Saturday and also for Sunday’s showdown between staff aces.

FoxSheets makes a good case to pick the Padres on Friday, despite Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez allowing just one run in his past 15 innings. Play On - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (123-62 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.5%, +66.8 units. Rating = 4*).

While this FoxSheets note makes the Padres the pick for the rest of the weekend, assuming the line doesn’t move past San Diego -150. Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in September games. (70-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +39.5 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:56 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

September 10, 2010

Mariners at Angels – The Mariners are 0-9 since May 15, 2010 as a 170+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Angels are 0-8 since July 02, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $965 when playing against.

Dodgers at Astros – The Astros are 9-0 since July 31, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $1030.

Red Sox at Athletics – The Athletics are 0-6 since June 07, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $627 when playing against.

Cardinals at Braves – The Braves are 6-0 since April 18, 2010 after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $671.

Cubs at Brewers – The Brewers are 10-0 since May 20, 2010 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1000.

Twins at Indians – The Indians are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 at home after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $645 when playing against.

Phillies at Mets – The Phillies are 13-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1390. The Mets are 0-10 since July 01, 2010 after a one run win for a net profit of $1145 when playing against.

Marlins at Nationals – The Marlins are 0-6 since May 28, 2010 after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $680 when playing against. The Nationals are 7-0 since May 19, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $810.

Giants at Padres – The Padres are 0-5 since August 07, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $585 when playing against.

Yankees at Rangers – The Rangers are 6-0 since July 22, 2010 at home and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600.

Pirates at Reds – The Pirates are 0-14 since April 30, 2010 as a road dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1400 when playing against. The Reds are 9-0 since May 05, 2010 as a favorite after a one run loss for a net profit of $900.

Diamondbacks at Rockies – The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since June 06, 2010 as a 170+ dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Orioles at Tigers – The Tigers are 8-0 since June 11, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $800.

Royals at White Sox – The Royals are 0-8 since July 09, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $845 when playing against. The White Sox are 9-0 since June 15, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $990.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:59 PM

CFL Odds: Calgary road favorites at Edmonton

The Calgary Stampeders go on the road looking for a sweep of a home-and-home series with the Edmonton Eskimos. This Week 11 matchup is scheduled for Friday, Sept. 10 at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. (PT).

Calgary has feasted on Edmonton so far this season with two lopsided wins. The Stampeders stomped the Eskimos 56-15 in Week 7 as an eight-point road favorite. The game easily eclipsed the total line of 53. Calgary QB Henry Burris threw for 305 yards and three TD’s and WR Nic Lewis caught five passes for 117 yards and scored twice. The Stamps built and insurmountable 32-8 lead at the half and coasted from there.

Last week these two teams met in Calgary and the result was pretty much the same. This time the Stampeders were a 12 ½-point favorite and they rolled to a 52-5 victory, easily covering the CFL spread. The total for this game went ‘over’ the 54 ½ point line by 2 ½ points. Once again Burris had a field day completing 15-of-23 attempts for 226 yards and three TD’s. Wide receiver WR Romby Bryant led the way with five receptions for 80 yards and two TD’s.

The win moved Calgary’s record to 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread. The Stamps are currently in first place in the West Divisionhttp://www.donbest.com/cfl/standing/ with a two-game lead over Saskatchewan. They are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this season.

Edmonton fell to 2-7 SU on the year and 3-5 ATS. The Eskimos are tied with B.C. for last place in the West. This season at home they are 2-3 both SU and ATS.

The difference between these two teams is night and day. Calgary is the most-balanced team in the league as its offense is first in total points scored with 323 and its defense is first in total points allowed with 182. The Stampeders also lead the lead in average yards per game (429.7) and average yards allowed (287.6). There are very few cracks on this team, if any at all.

Edmonton is the exact opposite. Its offense is ranked last in total points scored with just 167 and its defense is last in total points allowed, giving up 305. The Eskimos are averaging 339.3 yards of offense per game, ranking them sixth and giving up an average of 390.1 yards per game on defense, ranking them seventh.

Betus.com has Calgary listed as a 10 ½-point CFL betting favorite and the current ‘over/under’ line is 54 ½. The Stamps are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Eskimos. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of those games.

Given the results of the first two meetings between these two teams you have to believe that Calgary has Edmonton’s number this season. Neither game has been remotely close as the Stamps have been able to keep the majority of their starters on the bench in the second half of both contests. I see no reason for this to change this time around as the Calgary easily covers for the third straight time.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 05:02 PM

MLB Betting Preview: Rangers host NY Yankees

Tropical Storm Hermine left her mark on Texas earlier this week, causing widespread flooding and twisters in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. The Texas Rangers hope the arrival of the New York Yankees on Friday isn't the start of a stormy weekend ahead.

The third series between the two clubs this season will find the Rangers hoping it's the last meeting. Texas is slumping, but still appears set for its first playoff appearance since 1999. The Rangers made three postseason showings from 1996-99, meeting the Yankees in the ALDS each time. New York won all three series, with the Rangers winning just once in 10 games.

Suffice to say, Texas would love to avoid seeing the Yankees this October.

Texas has also beaten the Yankees just once in five tries this season. New York swept three from the Rangers in the Bronx back in mid-April, winning all three as 165 chalk or higher and covering the run line in two of the three.

The squads split a short two-game set in Texas about a month ago. The lone Rangers victory came with their Friday starter, C.J. Wilson, on the hill. Texas, a 140 MLB odds favorite in the Aug. 10 matchup, pulled out a 4-3 win in the bottom of the 10th inning.

Wilson (21-7, 3.10) worked into the sixth of that contest, allowing two earned runs and striking out five. He didn't figure into the decision, with the game coming in the middle of a post-All Star stretch during which Texas won nine consecutive Wilson starts.

That streak was snapped his last time out at Minnesota on Sept. 5. Wilson allowed all six runs in the Twins' 6-5 win. Texas closed as a 125 favorite at the baseball betting window in that loss.

Wilson allowed five runs, three earned, in New York on April 16, his second start of the 2010 campaign. A big 185 underdog to C.C. Sabathia, the Rangers fell by a 5-1 count.

Javier Vazquez (13-11, 5.01) gets the call for Joe Girardi's troops Friday. The Puerto Rican right-hander was shelled at Texas on Aug. 11 with six runs and eight hits charged to his ledger in 4 1/3 innings as a 150 underdog to Cliff Lee. Texas' bullpen provided no relief for Ron Washington that evening, letting New York slip away with a 7-6 victory.

New York had Thursday off to travel after narrowly avoiding being swept at home by the Orioles earlier this week. The Yankees will reach Texas with a 2½-game lead over Tampa Bay in the AL East. The day off could be enough for catcher Jorge Posada to regroup from a slight concussion that held him out of New York's series finale with Baltimore on Wednesday.

The Rangers still had a four-game set in Toronto to complete Thursday evening. That means Texas will be traveling into the early morning hours while the Yankees are all tucked into their beds and dreaming of a 28th World Series title.

Texas could use several days off in order to get Josh Hamilton right. Bad ribs have kept Hamilton out of the lineup since Sept. 4, and he's not expected to play until Sunday at the earliest.

Hermine has passed out of the area but a stray t-storm or two is still in the forecast for the weekend. Friday evening should be warm and muggy with temps in the mid-to-upper 80s at first pitch. Winds are presently projected to be out of the south at 5-10 mph (in from right field).

The series continues Saturday with the Yankees slated to send A.J. Burnett (12-16, 5.15) to the mound against Tommy Hunter (14-4, 3.99). Texas is penciling in Lee (3-8, 4.69) for Sunday's series finale, with the lefty opposed by Dustin Moseley (5-2, 4.83).

NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 05:03 PM

MLB Odds: Weekend full of key betting series

The MLB schedule this weekend is drunk with matchups critical to the upcoming postseason, two of which got underway Thursday in Atlanta and San Diego.

St. Louis took the opener of its four-game set in Atlanta on Thursday, 11-4, behind Colby Rasmus' bat and Adam Wainwright's arm. Rasmus stroked two homers among his four hits and rove in four runs to fuel the Cardinals lineup. Wainwright, who closed as a slight favorite over Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens, broke a string of four consecutive losses with eight innings of 7-K, 3-ER baseball.

The Cardinals moved up a game in the NL Central with the win and now trail Cincinnati by five. The defeat dropped Atlanta a game behind Philadelphia in the NL East race, with the Braves now holding a one-game lead over the Giants for the NL wild card.

Friday will find the Cardinals throwing their 'other ace,' Chris Carpenter (21-9, 2.90) opposite Atlanta rookie southpaw Mike Minor (3-2, 5.33). St. Louis was drawing an MLB money line tag of minus 131 at 5Dimes.com with the 'total' 7½.

Saturday's pitching matchup will have Jake Westbrook (2-5, 3.89) for the Cardinals against Atlanta's Tommy Hanson (16-13, 3.58). Sunday night's ESPN telecast to conclude the series will be previewed by Don Best's Brad Young with Kyle Lohse (5-8, 7.13) opposing Tim Hudson (17-12, 2.41).

San Francisco used four home runs and Matt Cain's eight strong innings to open its four-gamer in San Diego with a 7-3 victory. The game closed as a pick 'em and baseball betting windows with the 7-run 'total' eclipsed. The Giants inched up to just a game behind the Padres in the NL West with the triumph.

The odds are even once again for Friday night's contest between a pair of southpaws, Jonathan Sanchez (17-11, 3.39) for the Giants and Clayton Richard (15-13, 3.43) for the Padres. Saturday's mound battle pits Madison Bumgarner (9-5, 3.44) versus Tim Stauffer (1-1, 1.72).

Sunday's wrap-up has all the makings for an incredible pitching duel as well as one of the season's lowest MLB odds 'totals.' San Francisco will send Tim Lincecum (18-11, 3.69) to the Petco Park mound to face San Diego's Mat Latos (17-9, 2.21). Check back at DonBest.com for Joe Freda's preview.

Rangers Ballpark will be packed all weekend with the New York Yankees in town for a matchup between AL division leaders. Yours truly has a preview for the series opener n Friday when Texas sends lefty C.J. Wilson (21-7, 3.10) against New York's Javier Vazquez (13-11, 5.01). TheGreek.com opened with Texas minus 130, and that money line has been bet up to minus 140.

The series continues Saturday with the Yankees slated to send A.J. Burnett (12-16, 5.15) to the mound against Tommy Hunter (14-4, 3.99). Texas goes with Cliff Lee (3-8, 4.69) for Sunday's series finale, with the lefty opposed by Dustin Moseley (5-2, 4.83).

The Rangers have dropped four of five to the Yankees this season, and have struggled historically against New York. Texas completed a 4-6 road trip with a 4-2 win as small faves in Toronto on Thursday, and has really cooled off after reaching a season-high 19 games above .500 on Aug. 6. The Rangers are 13-18 since that date, but still hold a 7½-game lead over the Athletics in the NL West. Oakland is hosting Boston for three this weekend.

New York owns a 2½-game margin over Tampa Bay in the AL East as well as for top-seeding in the American League playoffs. The Rays are in Toronto for the next three days and cannot afford to look ahead to their home series versus the Yankees to begin next week. Check back Monday for Jimmy Sirody's analysis of the series opener at Tropicana Field.

NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 05:04 PM

MLB Betting: Red Sox head west to Oakland

Two teams battling for their MLB postseason lives begin a three-game series Friday in Northern California when Boston visits Oakland. Time is quickly running out in baseball’s marathon 162-game regular season that concludes in less than a month.

Boston has been a postseason staple the past decade, winning a pair of World Series titles along the way. However, the Red Sox would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. Boston has little chance of overtaking New York in the American League East standings, and the Red Sox trail Tampa Bay by 6 ½ games in the wild-card chase.

Oakland has played .500 ball throughout the season, but the team actually has a better shot of capturing the AL West than the wild card. The Athletics trail Texas by seven games in the standings, and Tampa Bay by 15 for the wild card.

Boston hurler Clay Buchholz (15-6, 2.25 ERA) heads to the hill hoping to rebound from Saturday’s setback to Chicago as 158 home ‘chalk,’ 3-1. The four-year veteran was reached for two runs on six hits with a walk and two strikeouts over five innings and 95 pitches.

The combined four runs failed to topple the eight-run closing total, helping the baseball betting ‘under’ cash his fourth straight start. The Red Sox have now failed to win his last two outings.

Buchholz dropped his only outing against Oakland this season as a 107 road selection, 6-4. The righty lasted just four innings and 87 pitches, allowing five runs on six hits (two home runs) with three walks and two strikeouts. The combined 10 runs went ‘over’ the 7 ½-run closing total.

Boston, 36-32 on the road, continues a six-game West Coast road trip after this series with three games against Seattle. The Red Sox are 13-3 in Buchholz’s previous 16 road starts. Boston has seen the ‘over’ cash its last four games heading into this series.

Oakland’s Trevor Cahill (15-6, 2.72 ERA) became the Athletics’ first 15-game winner since 2007 after upending Los Angeles Saturday as a 125 home favorite, 3-1. The 22-year-old tossed six scoreless innings on four hits with six walks and four strikeouts on 116 pitches.

The combined four runs failed to topple the 6 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 8-1 his previous nine outings. The six walks marked a career high, while the 116 pitches was the most he has thrown this season.

Cahill has only faced Boston twice during his two-year career, with both starts occurring last season. The right-hander went a combined 10 1/3 innings, yielding 10 runs on 14 hits (three home runs) with five walks and seven strikeouts. The A’s dropped those matchups as a 155 road underdog, 5-4, and as a decided 295 road ‘dog, 8-3.

Oakland, 41-29 at home, wraps up a nine-game homestand with this series before embarking on a six-game road trip versus Kansas City and Minnesota. The A’s are 7-2 the last nine home meetings versus Boston, while the ‘over’ is 9-1 the previous 10 matchups overall.

Friday’s forecast for Oakland calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of 75 degrees and a low of 55.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 05:05 PM

MLB Betting: First-place Phillies face NY Mets

The Philadelphia Phillies look to protect their slim NL East lead when they start a weekend series at the New York Mets on Friday night.

Philadelphia (81-60) has a three-game winning streak and is 33-14 since July 21. It has a half-game lead over Atlanta, moving into first place on Tuesday for the first time since May 30.

Philadelphia is 12-2 in its last 14 road games (34-32 overall). Conversely, Atlanta has struggled away all year (31-41). Philadelphia and the Mets have an off-day on Thursday, while Atlanta opens a home series against St. Louis.

The Phillies have turned things around with pitching. Their runs allowed have gone way down from before July 21 (4.36) to after (3.59). Runs scored per game have stayed just about the same.

The Mets (69-71) are out of the playoff picture at 11 ½-games back in the division. They’re coming off a 10-game road trip, going 4-6. They did win the last two at Washington, but are only 3-25 in their last 28 games following a win.

New York has played well at home this year (39-25), but is just 9-9 in the second half. The team is 11-4 in its last 15 games following an off day.

Philly’s Roy Halladay has been every bit the ace expected after coming over from Toronto. He ranks first in the NL in innings pitched (221), second in wins (17), third in strikeouts (196) and fourth in ERA (2.36).

The 33-year-old righty has struggled by his standards the last three starts (1-2, 4.28 ERA). He gave up seven homers in those games. Last Saturday against Milwaukee, he allowed four solo shots, but still got a 5-4 win. It was the first time in his career he allowed four homers in a game.

Halladay is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in three starts versus the Mets this year. The one start in New York was on August 14. He allowed no earned runs and just four hits over eight innings in a 4-0 win.

Jenrry Mejia (0-3, 3.86 ERA) will be the opposing pitcher. Pitching in this league is difficult for any 20-year-old, but going against Halladay is doubly tough.

Mejia spent the first three months of the season in the Mets bullpen, making 30 appearances. The team sent him down to the minors to work on his secondary pitches. He made his first career start last Saturday at the Cubs (losing 5-3).

Mejia lasted five innings in Chicago, allowing four earned runs over eight hits. He threw 96 pitches in those five innings, so he needs to be more efficient this start.

The season series is tied at 6-6. New York swept a home series in May, with Philly taking two of three at Citi Field last month. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 6-0 in the six games in New York and 10-1 in the last 11 there.

New York shortstop Jose Reyes (oblique) could return to the lineup for this game. Jason Bay (concussion) may be out the rest of the season and the team is 15th in NL runs scored (3.34) in the second half.

Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins (hamstring) is questionable for Friday. Closer Brad Lidge (elbow) is probable.

First pitch on Friday night is 4:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear and in the upper 60s

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 05:06 PM

MLB Odds: Bumbling Braves return home

The Atlanta Braves are hoping a seven-game homestand will reverse their recent skid and move them back into first place in the NL East standings. The Braves are a major league-best 49-19 on their home turf.

The homestand begins Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against a slumping St. Louis Cardinals team that swept a four-game series at Busch Stadium against the Braves in April.

The Cardinals registered victories of 4-3, 5-4, 6-0 and 10-4. The first and third games ducked ‘under' the closing total, while the second and fourth matchups skipped ‘over' the number.

The finale of that series featured the Cards' Adam Wainwright against Atlanta's Jair Jurrjens. Ironically, that will be the matchup in Thursday's series opener.

Wainwright closed as a 165 favorite in that meeting and needed just 78 pitches to complete six innings and notch the victory. The 6-foot-7 right-hander limited the Braves to three runs on six hits while walking two and fanning four.

Jurrjens lasted just one inning after getting tagged for three runs on two hits (one homer) spanning just 14 pitches.

The 29-year-old Wainwright will be attempting to snap a personal four-game losing skid in this spot. However, the Cards have not provided Wainwright with more than three runs of support in any of those outings.

Wainwright is off last Saturday's 6-1 loss against Cincinnati as a 165 home favorite. He allowed five runs (two earned) on seven hits through just five innings spanning 83 pitches.

St. Louis is now 17-12 in Wainwright's first 29 starts, with the ‘under' going 14-12-3. He is 6-8 with a 3.15 ERA in 14 road assignments, compared to 11-2 with a sparkling 1.52 ERA in 12 home starts.

The Cardinals are a dismal 29-40 in their first 69 road dates, 5-7 in extra innings and 18-22 in one-run affairs.

The Braves saw their losing streak reach three games during Tuesday's 5-0 setback to the lowly Pirates. Coupled with Philadelphia's victory over Florida, Atlanta fell back into second place in the National League East, a half-game behind the Phillies.

Jurrjens' best outing of the season occurred last Saturday when he blanked Florida 2-0 as a 145 road underdog. The 24-year-old right-hander stymied the Marlins on three hits through seven innings spanning 99 pitches. He walked three batters and fanned seven.

The Braves are 12-6 in Jurrjens' first 18 starts, with the ‘under' going 11-7. Jurrjens is a perfect 6-0 with a nifty 2.15 ERA in eight home stars, compared to 1-4 with a 5.81 ERA in 10 road endeavors.

Atlanta is a sizzling 55-35 against right-handed starters, but just 6-7 in extra innings and 20-21 in 1-run affairs. The Braves own a plus-119 run differential by outscoring the opposition, 649-530.

Don't forget to check the weather report and the umpire assignments for all of Thursday's baseball action.

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