NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/9 - 9/11) + Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Games up to 4PM Eastern....Evening games posted later in the day.

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/10/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
Totals 42-44-2 48.84% -3200



Saturday, September 11Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 12:00 PM ET East Carolina -13 500 *****
East Carolina - Under 57.5 500

Duke - 12:00 PM ET Duke +5 500 *****
Wake Forest - Over 52.5 500

San Jose State - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -38.5 500
Wisconsin - Under 53.5 500 *****

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Under 56.5 500
Florida Atlantic -

Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -13.5 500 *****
Kansas -

Georgia - 12:00 PM ET Under 46.5 500 *****
South Carolina -

Hawaii - 12:00 PM ET Army -3 500 *****
Army - Under 51 500

South Florida - 12:20 PM ET South Florida +16 500 *****
Florida - Under 50 500

Idaho - 12:30 PM ET Idaho +27.5 500
Nebraska - Over 53.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 2:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) -14 500
Miami (Ohio) - Under 51.5 500

Arkansas State - 3:30 PM ET Arkansas State +2 500
UL Lafayette - Under 52.5 500

Colorado - 3:30 PM ET Colorado +10 500 *****
California - Over 50 500

Kent State - 3:30 PM ET Kent State +17.5 500
Boston College - Under 45.5 500

Florida State - 3:30 PM ET Florida State +7 500 *****
Oklahoma - Over 58 500

Iowa State - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -13 500 *****
Iowa - Over 45.5 500

Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Michigan +3.5 500
Notre Dame - Over 52.5 500 *****

Miami - 3:40 PM ET Miami +8 500 *****
Ohio State - Under 47 500

UNLV - 4:00 PM ET UNLV +21 500
Utah - Over 55 500

Brigham Young - 4:00 PM ET Air Force -1.5 500 *****
Air Force - Under 50 500


Good Luck !

[jt4545]

thanks for the INFO and Good luck Star

[StarDust Bum]

Stacked Saturday of college football

Week two of the college football season presents us with a trio of high profile top-25 matchups featuring some of the most storied programs in college football. Top-ranked Alabama hosts (18) Penn State (7:00 p.m. EDT), (2) Ohio State entertains (12) Miami (3:30 p.m.), and (10) Oklahoma welcomes (17) Florida State to Norman (3:30 p.m.).
Alabama (1-0) had no trouble with San Jose State in its opener, coasting to a 48-3 win. Penn State (1-0) overcame a slow first quarter against FCS powerhouse Youngstown State before running away with a 44-14 victory. The Crimson Tide have been a solid play ATS under Nick Saban. FoxSheets show that Alabama is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Alabama 31.7, Opponent 12.7 - (Rating = 0*). The numbers get slightly better when limiting the study to Saturday games. Alabama is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Alabama 32.3, Opponent 11.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Ohio State (1-0) and Miami (1-0) meet for the first time since the Buckeyes’ improbable win over the Hurricanes in January 2003 to claim the national title. Ohio State forced three turnovers in its 45-7 win over Marshall last week. FoxSheets point out that an opportunistic defense has been a good barometer for the Buckeyes in recent years. Ohio State is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average score was Ohio State 29.1, Opponent 10.8 - (Rating = 3*).

In another rematch of a national championship game played in the last 10 years, Florida State (1-0) and Oklahoma (1-0) face each other for the first time since the Sooners’ dominant 13-2 win over the Seminoles in January of 2001. Oklahoma has been very solid in recent years when favored between 1-2 touchdowns at home. Check this out from the FoxSheets: Bob Stoops is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Oklahoma. The average score was Oklahoma 40.0, Opponent 14.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Though neither team is ranked at the moment, the annual clash between Michigan (1-0) and Notre Dame (1-0) became a little more intriguing after Michigan’s impressive win over Connecticut and the Irish’s solid win over Purdue in their first game under new head coach Brian Kelly. This contest kicks off at 3:30 PM in South Bend. Michigan has gotten the better of this series of late. A look at the FoxSheets shows that the Wolverines have gone 3-1 both straight up and ATS against the Irish over the last four years.

There is one other top-25 matchup on this Saturday’s schedule, an early season SEC contest between (22) Georgia (1-0) and (24) South Carolina (1-0) in Columbia (12:00 p.m.).

There is also top 25 action on both Thursday and Friday night. (21) Auburn (1-0) travels to Starkville to take on Mississippi State (1-0) on Thursday (7:30 p.m.), while (23) West Virginia (1-0) takes on Mountaineer state rival Marshall (0-1) in Huntington on Friday (7:00 p.m.).

[StarDust Bum]

Fade Alert - Week 2

If it looks like a duck, it probably is a duck.
So it goes for bad football teams, who are often easy to identify merely by the proverbial "eye" test. And early in any football season, it often takes the oddsmakers and wagering public a while to gauge the magnitude of the problems that often afflict these troubled entries.

Thus, when looking to catch point-spread streaks in their earliest stages, it’s never bad idea to look for struggling teams that appear as if they could reel off several losses in a row vs. the number. And even though the 2010 college season is only one week old, there are already a few prime candidates on the "go-against" list. Following are some of those squads we might want to "fade" this weekend.

MEMPHIS (Saturday, at East Carolina)...Nothing went right for the Tigers in their opening 49-7 loss at Mississippi State, which was the debut game for new HC Larry Porter. To say the Tigers have a long way to go would be an understatement, with Porter and his staff looking for new combinations in the secondary after it was torched by Bulldog QBs Chris Relf and Tyler Russell last week. Moreover, it doesn’t appear as if Memphis is ready to outscore anybody, with Porter likely to continue rotating his pair of inexperienced alternatives, soph Cannon Smith (son of FedEx founder Fred Smith; Porter might want to keep playing Cannon just to keep one of Memphis’ biggest boosters happy) and RS frosh Ryan Williams. Thus, it doesn’t appear as if a quick turnaround from Memphis’ recent woes (now 2-11 its last 13 vs. the spread) are imminent. Conversely, this week’s foe ECU hit the ground running under its new HC, Ruffin McNeill, last week vs. Tulsa, and remember that new Pirate QB Dominique Davis had previous starting experience at Boston College. The Pirates have also covered their last 8 vs. Memphis.

KANSAS (Saturday, vs. Georgia Tech)...The Jayhawks unraveled last season under HC Mark Mangino, who was rewarded by being dismissed from his job. In the meantime, KU finished ‘09 by losing its last seven games, and new HC Turner Gill wasn’t able to stop the bleeding in his first game, a startling 6-3 loss to North Dakota State. Making things more problematic for Gill is that neither of his QBs, Kale Pick nor Jordan Webb, looked remotely comfortable running the Jayhawk attack that for the past four years was piloted by the exciting and overachieving Todd Reesing. Keeping with earshot of a Georgia Tech team that was humming in its usual manner last week vs. South Carolina State (twelve different Yellow Jackets carried the ball en route to 372 rushing yards) and has covered 9 of 11 tries as a visitor since HC Paul Johnson arrived in 2008, might be a tall order.

SAN JOSE STATE (Saturday, at Wisconsin)...Whose idea was it for the Spartans to open their season at Alabama and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks? Such is the life of a revenue-starved program at the bottom of the college football food chain. The Spartans will willing to sacrifice a lot of lumps, and a disruption of the long-running local series with peninsula neighbor Stanford, for these paydays at Tuscaloosa and Madison. The problem is that San Jose is not nearly as competitive as it was a few years ago, when Dick Tomey’s regime was flying rather high. The Spartans have regressed back to the sort of lowly status that marked the era of Tomey predecessor Fitz Hill, leaving little for new HC Mike MacIntyre. And this week, SJSU brings a 1-15 spread amrk in its last 16 games on the board to Camp Randall Stadium. This was certainly no season for San Jose to front-load its schedule, with not only the Crimson Tide and Badgers, but Utah and WAC heavyweights Boise State and Nevada all on the slate by mid-October. Will there be anything left of the Spartans after midseason?

NEW MEXICO (Saturday, vs. Texas Tech)...How could things have gotten any worse for the Lobos after a 1-11 mark in HC Mike Locksley first season that saw the head coach slapped with a sex and age discrimination complaint filed by a football administrative assistant, then get handed a 10-day suspension by AD Paul Krebs for becoming involved in fisticuffs with assistant coach J.B. Gerald? Well, maybe they have, as after last week’s 72-0 humiliation at the hands of Oregon, the cries for New Mexico to humanely end the regime of the overmatched Locksley are getting louder and louder in Albuquerque. Even with the Ducks sitting on the lead in the second half, New Mexico could not do any damage, barely reaching the 100-yard mark in the fiasco at Eugene. Things might not get any better this weekend when the Lobos host potent Texas Tech at University Stadium, and one has to wonder if Locksley will even be able to finish the month, much less the season, if New Mexico continues to absorb such beatings. Who would have ever thought the Lobo fans would be wishing for a return to the days of Rocky Long coaching the team?

UCLA (Saturday, vs. Stanford)...We’re getting close to panic time in Westwood, where the Bruins are staring down the barrel of an 0-4 September unless they can turn things around quickly. But that is no guarantee, with ascending Stanford a solid betting favorite Saturday at the Rose Bowl, with omnipotent Houston and highly-ranked Texas next in the queue. Unfortunately for HC Rick Neuheisel, the Bruins are getting hit with a spate of injuries while their season threatens to unravel, with OL woes hampering the forward wall while QB Kevin Prince (just 9 of 26 in the opener at Kansas State) now must have to deal with a sore shoulder on top of the balky balk that limited his number of reps in fall camp. At some point very soon, Neuheisel could begin to feel some real heat, although Pac-10 sources believe "Slick Rick" likely has at least through 2011 to get the Bruin ship turned in the right direction, barring a disastrous 2-10 or 3-9-type season in 2010.

COLORADO STATE (Saturday, at Nevada)...The bottom fell out of the Rams’ campaign after a quick break from the gate last season, as CSU closed 2009 with 9 straight defeats and a last place finish (behind even new Mexico) in the Mountain West. Now the Rams’ losing streak has mushroomed to 10 straight (including 7 straight losses vs. the number) after an ugly 24-3 opening-week loss vs. hated Colorado at Denver. The Ram offense, which bogged down as 2009 progressed, still looks to have a long way to go with true frosh QB Pete Thomas learning on the job, and apt to suffer more 3-interception efforts such as he did last week vs. the Buffs. A trip to revenge minded and explosive Nevada could be painful this week, and if the Rams can’t get a win in their subsequent two games vs. Miami-Ohio and Idaho, only a visit from Mike Locksley’s New Mexico Lobos (assuming Locksley is still on the job) might stand in the way of the first big donut in Fort Collins since noted taskmaster Sark Arslanian and Chester Caddas (who succeeded Arslanian after 6 games) combined for an 0-12 Rams mark in 1981.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Odds: USC Trojans host Virginia

Two years ago, the USC Trojans marched into Charlottesville and absolutely crippled the Virginia Cavaliers, 52-7. The Cavaliers can now get their chance at some revenge and take advantage of the Men of Troy at their weakest this Saturday night at the Los Angeles Coliseum.

Barkley barking up the Heisman Bush?


We already know all about Heisman Trophy troubles for former Trojans, as it seems like it is just a matter of time before Reggie Bush loses his illustrious award from the 2005 season. Though USC knows that it isn't bowling this year and cannot win the national championship, there is nothing that says that QB Matt Barkley can't win the Heisman Trophy.

Only a few quarterbacks even threw for four TDs last week, let alone for five. However, Barkley had one of those special days to remember in last week's 49-36 triumph over the Hawaii Warriors. The sophomore went 18-of-23 for 257 yards with five scores without throwing a pick and was only sacked once.

The USC running back stable

New head coach Lane Kiffin surprised all involved in Southern Cal by naming Marc Tyler as his starting running back over incumbents Allen Bradford and CJ Gable. All three put forth solid efforts against the Warriors last week and should be considered prime candidates for big games this Saturday in the home opener. Tyler led all rushers with 154 yards and a TD on 17 carries, while Bradford and Gable combined for 92 yards on 16 carries.
Quite the offensive defense

At the outset of the duel in Hawaii, the Trojans looked like they were going to come out of the blocks and dominate on both sides of the ball. However, thanks to the defense, the offense had to continue scoring just to preserve a victory, let alone a chance of covering the three TD spread.

The Warriors threw for a whopping 459 yards on the day despite three different quarterbacks being used. USC allowed an eye-popping 588 total yards of offense and let three different wide receivers tally at least 100 yards.

Kiffin knows that he has one of the most talented defenses in the country, and giving up those types of numbers is inexcusable at absolute best.

The house of Payne

As a fifth year senior who battled injuries his entire career, RB Keith Payne probably hasn't done enough in his career to make you remember his name. However, after Saturday night, that might all change.

Payne took advantage of the Richmond Spiders' lack of a rush defense last week by rumbling for 114 yards and four TDs on just 16 carries.

It's going to be a difficult task, but just as they did in a 34-13 win last week against the Spiders, the Cavaliers are going to have to try to outmuscle the Trojans if they have any chance of pulling off this upset.

Nobody could have asked much more from QB Marc Verica than what he gave UVA last weekend against one of the premier FCS teams in the country. Verica threw for 283 yards and a TD and did a great job taking care of the football. He completed 24-of-35 passing and did not throw an INT.

This is the third year in which the senior has taken snaps. He remembers what it is like playing these Trojans, having watched from the sidelines in the defeat two years ago.

Stacking up the NCAA football odds

USC is favored by 19 1/2 points on the college football lines at BoDog. The 'total' is set at 51 points.

The Trojans are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, while Virginia has suddenly covered three of its last four dating back to last season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Odds: Can Vandy tame Tigers?

Historically, college football bettors have avoided games between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the LSU Tigers like the plague. They are traditionally not fantastic games to watch and are seemingly always a score away from flipping the team covering the final spread.

This year's game might not be an exception, as both Vandy and LSU have a ton of work to do. Both teams will be looking to kick off their SEC seasons with a much needed win in the Music City.

Tigers tough to tame, but tougher to bet

We've been talking about what LSU nearly blew last week. They were up 30-10 at halftime against the North Carolina Tar Heels at the Georgia Dome and looked like they were just going to cruise to an easy victory over a team that barely found enough defensive players that weren't suspended to play in the game.

Then a 97 yard TD pass cut the lead to 30-17 and another score with less than three minutes to go had the Tigers' hearts racing. They didn't score a point in the second half. They were dominating in the final 11 minutes of the game. Their stats were horrifying, particularly in the second half.

Just the way that we've been talking about it in the media, it's a wonder that LSU won this game...
But alas, it did, and now the Bayou Bengals are in a position to start a nice run of wins. We're more interested in what they can do against the spread though, and that's something that it feels like head coach Les Miles has been flipping us college football bettors the bird at for a number of years.

Though LSU has been a rock solid 27-11 since September of 2007, it has only gone a miserable 11-25-1 ATS.
Vandy sloppy in Caldwell's debut

The Commodores tried to do everything they could to avoid covering the three-point line against the Northwestern Wildcats last week. But, fortunately for them, Northwestern was trying harder.

New head coach Robbie Caldwell had to be pulling his hair out in his debut on the sidelines in Nashville, as his team missed a field goal, botched an extra point, screwed up a pair of two point conversions, threw an INT and committed nine penalties for 91 yards.

Quarterback Larry Smith also made some critically bad throws at miserable times to halt a ton of Commodores drives. He went 19-of-33 for 240 yards with a TD and an interception, which was a rather modest result. Still, he only led the 'Dores to 4-of-13 third-down conversions.

Riding the Ridley rail

Steven Ridley had really never been used as anything more than an up-back or a garbage time back in his career with LSU. However, all of a sudden, Miles is left with very few other options but to call upon him as his primary rusher. With QB Jordon Jefferson continuing to struggle (15-of-21, 151 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT last week), the rushing game continues to become very, very important for the Bayou Bengals.

Last year, the Tigers had a plethora of senior backs. But now, names like Keiland Williams and Charles Scott are both gone. Ridley used power generally straight up the gut to account for 81 yards on 19 carries in last week's win over the Tar Heels. We expect to see him get called upon at least 20 times in this game against the Commodores as well.

Vandy is 'under' the weather

The ‘under' is 27-9-1 in Vanderbilt's last 37 games overall and 15-5-1 in its last 21 home games. Don't think that SEC games are exempt either, as the school's last 63 conference matches have seen the ‘under' go 43-19-1.

The ‘under' is 7-1 in LSU's last eight games following an ATS defeat and 7-3 in its last 10 after a SU victory.

Pinnacle sports book has the Tigers as 10-point favorites, with a 'total' of 44.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAA Football Betting: Penn State at Alabama

Defensive end Marcell Dareus is out serving the final game of his suspension. Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is also likely out as he recovers from knee surgery. Yet Alabama is a double-digit favorite over Penn State Saturday night at Tuscaloosa. That says a lot about the talent pool coach Nick Saban has assembled in T-Town.

Most offshore books opened Alabama as 9 ½-point college football odds favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 45. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. PT with ESPN broadcasting the clash.

The Big Ten takes a lot of grief in SEC circles after Ohio State wet the bed in back-to-back BCS National Championship Games, but this year’s Big Ten is better than it has been in years. The Nittany Lions can compete for the conference crown, which makes them anything but a pushover.

After devouring a non-conference slate of cupcakes in each of the last two years, Penn State should be commended for adding an elite program to the 2010 schedule and renewing an intersectional rivalry against the Crimson Tide. It’s also the Nittany Lions’ first non-bowl game against the SEC since joining the Big Ten. Coach Joe Paterno is 5-2 against the conference in bowls since 1993.

'Bama was balanced in the pass and run and spectacular in execution against San Jose State last week and appears ready and worthy of a No. 1 ranking.

Alabama hasn’t lost at home since Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, an embarrassing 21-14 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Since that meltdown, the Tide has won 15 in a row at home. And in those 15 games they’ve have allowed more than 15 points only once, a 24-21 win over Ole Miss during the 2008 season. Ten times during the streak, they’ve held teams to a touchdown or fewer. In fact, in their last seven home outings, Alabama has allowed a total of three touchdowns.

This is a Penn State team that will probably drive the old-school Paterno nuts—one that makes outstanding plays here or there mixed with mistakes and mental lapses that are the product of an inexperienced roster.

Having running back Evan Royster and Stephfon Green and dependable wide receivers will help the development of young quarterback Robert Bolden, but the Nittany Lions had trouble protecting the passer against quality defenses last year, and the offensive line doesn’t figure to improve by leaps and bounds.

The most critical matchup is the Penn State offensive line against the front seven of Alabama.

Bolden showed good poise and made strong decisions in the season-opening win over Youngstown State, but he’ll likely fall victim to some mistakes against 'Bama.

The defense is really what carried the Tide last season. This year, the focus will switch to the other side of the ball, where Alabama returns eight starters.

Quarterback Greg McElroy will be asked to do more than make plays when necessary and protect the football. The former Texas high school standout still hasn’t lost a start since middle school after going 14-for-14 during his first season as a replacement for three-year starter John Parker Wilson.

However, McElroy hasn’t thrived against top competition. He completed 68 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions against unranked opponents in ’09. His percentage dropped to 52.4 and he threw as many picks (four) as touchdowns versus six Top 25 teams.

The game could easily be won or lost through the air. Alabama allowed a national-low five rushing scores last season, while Penn State yielded six to tie for second fewest.

The Nittany Lions have lost and failed in five of their last six clashes with Top 10 teams. In addition, they have come up short ATS in their last four non-conference contests and in their last six in September.

Penn State is 6-10 ATS away from home against ranked teams and 9-13 as road short-enders. They have also gone 3-12 ATS on the highway after allowing less than 10 points. On a positive note, the Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS as dogs versus SEC foes.

Alabama has ‘covered’ seven of eight in September and four of five at home. The Tide is 7-3 ATS off a SU win by 20 points or more and 5-0 ATS after scoring more than 35 points versus a non-conference rival.

Alabama has failed at a 32-21-1 clip as double-digit favorites and dropped 36 of 61 as home ‘chalk.’

Penn State has zipped ‘over’ in five of its last six road games, but ended on the low side in four straight non-conference tests and in five straight against the SEC.

The Tide has been high at a 6-1-1 pace in September and at a 5-0-1 rate versus non-conference tenants.

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Games:

UNLV - 4:00 PM ET UNLV +21 500
Utah - Over 55 500

Brigham Young - 4:00 PM ET Air Force -1.5 500 *****
Air Force - Under 50 500

Toledo - 7:00 PM ET Toledo +9.5 500
Ohio - Under 52 500 *****

Troy - 7:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -13.5 500 *****
Oklahoma State - Under 64.5 500

Louisiana State - 7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +11 500 *****
Vanderbilt - Under 45 500

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Baylor -14.5 500
Baylor - Over 51 500

Syracuse - 7:00 PM ET Washington -13 500
Washington - Under 49 500 *****

Arkansas - 7:00 PM ET UL Monroe +34 500
UL Monroe - Over 59.5 500

Bowling Green - 7:00 PM ET Bowling Green +17 500
Tulsa - Over 62.5 500

Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -19 500*****
Texas A&M - Over 60 500

Rice - 7:00 PM ET North Texas -3.5 500
North Texas - Over 57.5 500

Wyoming - 7:00 PM ET Wyoming +27.5 500
Texas - Over 50.5 500

Penn State - 7:00 PM ET Alabama -13.5 500 *****
Alabama - Over 43.5 500

Oregon - 7:00 PM ET Oregon -11 500 *****
Tennessee - Over 51 500

Western Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Western Kentucky +24.5 500
Kentucky - Over 53.5 500

North Carolina State - 7:30 PM ET Central Florida -3 500
Central Florida - Over 52.5 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 8:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +11.5 500 *****
Southern Methodist - Over 58.5 500

San Diego State - 8:00 PM ET San Diego State -13.5 500 *****
New Mexico State -

Texas Tech - 8:00 PM ET Texas Tech -25 500 *****
New Mexico -

Rutgers - 8:00 PM ET Florida International +15 500
Florida International - Over 47.5 500

Mississippi - 9:00 PM ET Tulane +20.5 500
Tulane - Over 50 500

Stanford - 10:30 PM ET Stanford -6.5 500 *****
UCLA - Over 51.5 500

Virginia - 10:30 PM ET Virginia +20 500 *****
Southern California - Over 51 500 *****

Colorado State - 10:30 PM ET Colorado State +24 500
Nevada - Over 56.5 500 *****


Good Luck with the evening games.