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**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 09:02 PM

NCAA Football: Opening line report, Week 2

For an illustration on just how fast things change in college football, look no further than the Kansas Jayhawks.

Just three seasons ago, coach Mark Mangino was the toast of the town in Lawrence, Kan., and his club was among the nation’s elite after a 24-21 win over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Now? Well, Mangino is gone. Turner Gill is in. And a rebuilding project of monumental proportions is underway.

Look, no one was expecting a return trip to a BCS game this year. But, at the same time, who expected Kansas to lose the opener, 6-3, to North Dakota State?

“It’s one game and that’s how you have to take it and move on from there,” Gill said. “We have to take the things that we did do well and obviously the things that we need to work on. We need to execute better. That’s the bottom line.”

Well, the bottom line for oddsmakers and gamblers, moving forward, is that Kansas is bad. Really bad. And so, when the powers that be in Las Vegas sat down over coffee Sunday morning, one of the toughest lines to plot out, was No. 17 Georgia Tech’s number at Kansas next Saturday at high noon ET.

“Boy, when you talk about Kansas, all you can saw is ‘wow’,” said Pete Korner, senior oddsmaker and founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. “The important thing for us, in this instance, is to stay as high as we can.”

Korner settled on Georgia Tech -13 to open the week. There is, of course, a bit of an unknown, as well, on the Yellow Jackets, the defending ACC champions. After all, all they did was beat an FCS team, South Carolina State, 41-10.

But then, again, the Jayhawks lost to an FCS team.

“Historically, in college football, bettors look at the week before, and that is especially true early on because there’s so little to go on,” Korner said. “And that perception of Kansas at this point, is going to be very strong, going the other way, because of what happened.”

It’s hard to blame anyone for that way of thinking.

“It’s just one game,” Kansas linebacker Justin Springer. “We have 11 more to go.”

Is that good or bad?

Let’s take a look at some other opening lines for next week’s notable games:

Auburn at Mississippi State (+3.5)

“Lot of difference in opinion regarding Auburn in this one. People could have gone from anywhere around 1 to 6,” Korner said. “We settled on the middle, and went 3.5.”

West Virginia at Marshall (+13)

“That doesn’t mean Marshall can’t go out, play well at home, and win the game outright,” Korner said. “It’s just a number that we think we can get decent two-way action on.”

Georgia at South Carolina (-3)

“Tough game, and it’s one that I don’t think the spread will come into play on,” Korner said. “I like Georgia. We sent out South Carolina at 3, but these are two good teams that are very close.”

South Florida at Florida (-17)

“Without Tim Tebow, there is still a sense that people are feeling out Florida, and just who and what they are,” Korner said. “That said, they are still in a higher class, and there’s an unknown to South Florida at this point.”

Colorado at Cal (-10)

“A preview of things to come on an annual basis as Colorado will join the Pac-10,” Korner said. “And Colorado played really well this past week. I think this is a take for Colorado fans here. It’s a good number for them.”

Michigan at Notre Dame (-6)

“It’s always going to be a big game with big action when these two teams play,” Korner said. “We like it at 6 right now, I think that’ll get some two-way action. People are really waiting for Notre Dame to get better. In the meantime, though, I still think they’re going to bet on the Irish, no matter what. So the lines are affected by that, certainly.”

Florida State at Oklahoma (-11)

“I’m not a big Florida State fan just yet, nothing is a given anymore with that program,” Korner said. “I think this line, given Florida State’s unknown, can go higher, but we’ll let that happen during the week, if it’s meant to be.”

Miami at Ohio State (-10)

“Again, a good team, getting double digits on the road,” Korner said. “But I’m not sure where the line will go during the week. Personally, I think the Buckeyes handle them.”

Penn State at Alabama (-12)

“Didn’t like the way Penn State handled itself this past week vs. Youngstown State,” Korner said. “I like it Alabama and 12, and would make it higher if running back Mark Ingram was set to return from injury and play. Alabama can just maul these guys.”

Oregon at Tennessee (+7.5)

“We had a long talk with this one,” Korner said. “I like Oregon, and think they can really move the ball here, but I couldn’t make it 10. It’s a knee-jerk reaction to bet against West Coast teams when they play on the East Coast. I wouldn’t worry about that here. I really think the Ducks can rip these guys.”

Virginia at USC (-21)

“It just seems fair,” Korner said. “It’s tough to get a gauge on USC, but they will always have an influence here in Las Vegas, and Virginia may be a little out of their element. At the same time, I’m not sure the Trojans can stop anyone, so if Virginia can score at all, they will have a chance with that number.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 09:55 PM

College Football Week 2 Betting Preview

Oklahoma was picked by some to be the national college football champion this year.

The Sooners, though, are going to have to play a whole lot better this week if that has any chance of happening. It’s the same with Florida.

The Sooners, Gators, Ohio State and Alabama – all top seven teams – face much more difficult matchups this week.

Oklahoma went off as 34 ½-point home favorites against Utah State and barely hung on, winning 31-24. DeMarco Murray had a monster game for the Sooners rushing for 218 yards and scoring two touchdowns.

The Sooners host Florida State, a 59-6 winner against Samford in the first game of the post Bobby Bowden era. The Seminoles scored 35 points in the second quarter.

Oklahoma is an 8 ½-point favorite. The Sooners have covered 19 of their last 26 games as home ‘chalk.’

Florida was bet up from 36 to 39 against Miami of Ohio and looked terrible in a 34-12 win, fumbling eight times and losing three of them. John Brantley, the replacement for Tim Tebow, passed for just 113 yards.

The Gators are 17-point home favorites versus South Florida, now coached by the highly-respected Skip Holtz, who led East Carolina to Conference USA titles the past two years.

Florida coach Urban Meyer is 17-4 ATS when his teams have hosted non-conference foes.

Ohio State drubbed Marshall, 45-7, covering as 28-point home favorites, but now draws Miami of Florida at home. The Buckeyes are 9 ½-point favorites.

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor put in an excellent Week 1 in his quest to win the Heisman Trophy, completing 17-of-25 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami quarterback Jacory Harris had a fine day, too, hitting on 12-of-15 passes for 210 yards and three scores in a 45-0 home victory against Florida A&M, a non-board school.

Alabama caught a bad break when Heisman Trophy running back Mark Ingram suffered a knee injury during practice and missed Alabama’s game against San Jose State. The Crimson Tide still rolled, winning 48-3 as 38 ½-point home favorites.

Ingram, who rushed for 1,658 yards and scored 17 touchdowns last year, is a long shot to play Saturday when Alabama hosts Penn State. The Crimson Tide are 11 ½-point favorites.

Trent Richardson is one of the top backup running backs in the country. He scored two touchdowns against San Jose State and redshirt freshman Eddie Lacey rushed for 111 yards and also scored twice. Even without Ingram, the Crimson Tide still rushed for 257 yards.

Penn State started off sluggish against Youngstown State before winning 44-14. The Nittany Lions, however, failed to cover as 38 ½-point home favorites.

Texas was lackluster in its opener, beating Rice 34-17. The Longhorns had been bet up from 29 to 31 ½-points for the matchup, which was played at Reliant Stadium in Houston.

Garrett Gilbert didn’t exactly shine in the first game of the post Colt McCoy era passing for 172 yards and no scores.

The Longhorns are 28-point home favorites versus Wyoming, a team they just missed covering against last year as 31 ½-point road favorites. Texas defeated the Cowboys, 41-10.

Ninth-ranked Iowa has an in-state rivalry matchup Saturday afternoon versus Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have won and covered in each of the last two years, including 35-3 as 6 ½-point road favorites last year.

However, Iowa State had covered during each of the previous four seasons, including winning straight-up in 2005 and 2007 as underdogs.

Iowa currently is minus 14 for this year’s matchup.

In other top 10 this week: Nebraska is 28 ½-point home favorites versus Idaho, Boise State is idle and TCU hosts Tennessee Tech, a non-board team so there is no line.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 09:56 PM

NCAAF Betting: Bulldogs host Tigers on ESPN

Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen is quite familiar with the multitalented Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton.

Now the rest of the country can see just how good Newton is when the 22nd-ranked Tigers play at Mississippi State in an SEC West battle Thursday night at 4:45 p.m. (PT) with ESPN televising.

The Bulldogs are small two-point college football spread favorites at home. The game 'total' had not been posted at press.

Newton lived up to his high expectations in his Auburn debut this past week running for 171 yards, passing for 186 yards and combining for five touchdowns in a 52-26 victory against Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference. Newton showed off his great speed and strong passing arm. He was named the SEC Player of the Week and is the first-week conference leader in rushing and total offense.

Mario Fannin, Michael Dyer and Kodi Burns all backed Newton with big plays. Fannin rushed for 65 yards and scored two touchdowns.

The Tigers, though, just missed covering the spread as 31 ½-point home favorites. The combined 78 points sailed ‘over’ the 52 ½-point total.

Auburn has never lost in 15 meetings against a Sun Belt foe. Mississippi State is SEC, though. The Bulldogs received their own impressive quarterback play in a 49-7 romp over Memphis.

Chris Reif started behind center for Mississippi State, but backup quarterback Tyler Russell came in and ended up tying a school record with four touchdown passes.

Reif and Russell combined to pass for 372 yards and run up 569 yards of offense, just 27 yards short of a school record. Chad Bumphis and Brandon Heavens each caught two touchdown passes and Vick Ballard ran for two scores. The Bulldogs led the SEC in rushing last year and rank fifth this year.

The Bulldogs held Memphis to 237 yards, stopping them on 13 of 15 third-down tries.

Newton presents a much more difficult challenge for the Bulldogs. Newton began his career at Florida, where Mullen was the Gators’ offensive coordinator under Urban Meyer.

Newton then transferred to a junior college in Texas where he led Blinn College to the 2009 NJCAA national championship, throwing for 2,833 yards and 22 touchdowns, while rushing for 655 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns on the ground. Auburn won a heavy recruiting battle to land Newton.

After one week, Mississippi State and Auburn rank first and second, respectively, in the nation in passing efficiency.

“You can tell certainly they have put a great deal of emphasis on being able to throw the ball and balance their attack out,” Auburn coach Gene Chizik was quoted as saying about the Bulldogs. “Without any question, they’re doing that better.”

The Tigers have beaten Mississippi State in seven of the last eight meetings, including 49-29 last year as 15-point home favorites. The combined 78 points easily went ‘over’ the 46 ½-point total. Just two years ago, Auburn won 3-2 at Mississippi State failing to cover as 10-point favorites with the total closing at 38 ½.

Auburn has covered six of the past eight times in the series. The Tigers, however, are 1-9 ATS the past two seasons in road contests, including 0-4 as road ‘chalk.’

Auburn also is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 SEC contests. The Tigers have failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 matchups played in September.

Mississippi State has covered eight of the last 12 times it has been a home underdog. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five SEC contests at home.

The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Mississippi State’s last six games played in September. There are a couple of ‘under’ trends, though. The ‘under’ is 16-7-2 in Auburn’s last 25 conference games. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of Mississippi State’s past nine games.

The weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s.

**Udog** · 09-07-2010, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by StarDust Bum View Post

The Sooners host Florida State, a 59-6 winner against Samford in the first game of the post Bobby Bowden era. The Seminoles scored 35 points in the second quarter.

Oklahoma is an 8 ½-point favorite. The Sooners have covered 19 of their last 26 games as home ‘chalk.’

This could be the game of the weekend, Bum! Florida State's offensive execution was impressive last weekend.

I'm looking forward to Penn St./Alabama, too.

Thanks, Bum! Good luck this week!

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 07:38 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
Totals 39-39-2 50.00% -1950

Thursday, September 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan +7 500****
Temple - Under 47 500 *****

Auburn - 7:45 PM ET Mississippi State -1 500 *****
Mississippi State - Over 56 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 07:38 PM

Auburn faces stiff test at Mississippi State

Auburn's Cameron Newton set a team rushing record for a quarterback with 171 yards in a season-opening win over Arkansas State—it was just the sixth 100-yard rushing performance by a Tigers quarterback. Other than current receiver Kodi Burns' 158-yard effort two years ago against Tennessee-Martin, the other four were turned in by Phil Gargis from 1974-76.
The debut performance gives the 6-foot-6, 250-pound Newton the early SEC lead in both rushing and total offense and earned him league offensive player of the week honors. It was good enough for seventh and fourth nationally. Newton passed for 186 yards and three touchdowns and scored twice more running.

But that was against a Sun Belt Conference team. Now, Newton makes his SEC debut.Mississippi State redshirt freshman quarterback Tyler Russell was nearly as impressive in his debut performance, completing 13 of 16 passes for 256 yards and 4 TDs in a 49-7 rout of Memphis. While the Auburn defense will get a boost from LB Craig Stevens’ expected to return from his one-game suspension, handicapping trends point to the home underdog in this one:

• AUBURN is 1-8 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.

• AUBURN is 2-10 ATS after a game where they forced one or zero turnovers over the last three seasons.

Play on Mississippi State +1.5

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 07:39 PM

Auburn at Mississippi St.

Date: Thursday, September 9
Matchup: #22 Auburn (1-0, 0-0 SEC) at Mississippi State (1-0, 0-0 SEC)
TV: 7:45 PM, ESPN
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (grass)
Sports.com Line: Auburn -1.5/U 55.5
A strong outing for the Ole Ball Coach kicked us off last Thursday night. Unfortunately, for readers of this space, it was not a good start to the season as Southern Miss was thoroughly outclassed on both sides of the ball and the outcome – both straight up and against the number – was rarely in doubt as the ‘Cocks easily covered the two touchdown spread, 41-13.

Looking to turn things around this week, we stay in the SEC and get a chance to slip down to Starkville, MS, home of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Speaking of the Bulldogs and the Gamecocks, I’m reminded of one of my worst beats ever when Mississippi State traveled to Columbia in September of 2000.

QB Wayne Madkin had the 25th-ranked Bulldogs in perfect position for a solid road victory – and winning ticket -when a series of what can only be described as highly unlikely plays culminated in South Carolina backup QB Eric Kimrey tossing a 25-yard touchdown pass to Jermale Kelly on 4th-and-10 to give the home team a 20-19 lead. The Gamecocks, then coached by Lou Holtz, would hang on for a 23-19 victory.

I watched that game with fellow VegasInsider handicapper, and SEC expert, Brian Edwards and while it generally takes a lot to make a grown man cry, I recall a few tears were shed that afternoon.

Of course, that September game from 2000 has little relevance to this game, especially due to the fact that Mississippi State will be facing Auburn this Thursday night and not South Carolina. However, it does recall a time when the Bulldogs were one of the stronger teams in the SEC West.

It wasn’t too many seasons after 2000 that the program fell on hard times and when Sylvester Croom replaced Jackie Sherrill in 2004, there was optimism in Starkville that a couple lean years were in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, the struggles for MSU were only beginning.

Croom was given plenty of time to right the ship but despite a few glimpses of life, he ultimately wasn’t able to get the job done for Mississippi State. Enter Dan Mullen in 2009 and again, optimism.

A scrappy 5-7 effort in his inaugural campaign was enough to bring out over 34,000 to the Mississippi State spring game – a state record - and provide a strong boost to season ticket sales. If you think the Bulldog faithful was excited heading into the season, you can only imagine the frenzy they have been whipped into after a strong performance in week one against Memphis.

Everyone knew the MSU could run the ball, after all they returned four starters on an offensive line that had paved the way for the top rushing attack in the SEC last season and had multiple options such as Vick Ballard, LaDarius Perkins and Robert Elliott. The question mark seemed to exist around the all-important QB position in Starkville.

That question mark was at least partially erased last weekend against the Tigers as QB’s Chris Relf and Tyler Russell looked sharp while feeding WR’s Brandon Heavens and Chad Bumphis – making that duo the first pair of Bulldog receivers to each have 100 or more yards since Justin Jenkins and McKinley Scott turned the trick in 2003. Russell, the 2008 Mr. Football out of Meridian High in Mississippi, was extremely impressive in his role as the #2 QB, completing 13-for-16 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns.

It all added up to a 49-7 drubbing of Memphis in front of the fourth-largest announced crowd in Scott Field history.

Mississippi State left some ink on the record books in their 11th straight win over Memphis. The 42-point win was its largest margin of victory since it beat East Tennessee State 53-6 during the 1998 SEC West Division title-winning year and their total yardage (569) was the most it gained since 1994.

Predictably, Mississippi State fans are flying high and frothing at the mouth to get a piece of the 22nd ranked Auburn Tigers this Thursday.

More than just an opportunity to take a big step in their rebuilding process, there are a couple other story lines at play this Thursday. One is good old fashioned revenge as the Bulldogs were thumped 49-24 in their 2009 SEC opener at Auburn. The other plot at play here is a story of rejection.

If the name Cam Newton rings a bell, it’s probably not because he led the Blinn Buccaneers to the junior college national title in 2009 while throwing for 2,833 yards and accounting for 38 touchdowns. No, it’s likely you recall the name for Newton’s time before he went to Blinn.

Newton began his collegiate career at the University of Florida as backup to the legendary Tim Tebow. He threw 10 passes in 2007 and then missed the 2008 season when an ankle injury caused him to redshirt. Unfortunately, later that year Newton had a scrape with the law, involving a stolen laptop, that caused his time at Florida to come to an end.

Fresh off an outstanding junior college season in 2009, Newton was ready to resume his Division 1-A college career and former Florida offensive coordinator, now Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen was thought by many to have the best shot to land Newton.

"For a long time, I thought I was going to Mississippi State," Newton told Sports Illustrated this past May.

Of course, this wouldn’t be a story of rejection if Newton had landed in Starkville. As you might have guessed, the Atlanta native spurned the Bulldogs and headed to Auburn, Alabama.

And so we turn our attention back to Thursday night where an enthusiastic Mississippi State crowd will welcome Mr. Newton to Starkville and hope the home team will show the youngster he chose the wrong school.

Newton got his Auburn career off to a fantastic start last weekend as he tallied five touchdowns, 357 yards total offense and set the Tigers' record for rushing yards for a quarterback after he finished with 171 yards on 15 carries.

Granted, the competition was just Arkansas State but you can forgive fans on the Plains if they feel the second coming of Jason Campbell has arrived on campus.

However, while the Auburn offense looked to be in midseason form, the Tigers defense appeared to still be stuck in the rut from 2009 when they allowed the most points ever in a War Eagle season.

Auburn’s defense permitted the Red Wolves from the Sun Belt to rack up 366 yards of total offense and with the hot Mississippi State offense on deck, the Tigers defensive unit looks vulnerable.

It all adds up to a interesting matchup this Thursday night. The Bulldogs are 1-0 ATS as they easily covered the number (-21.5) against Memphis. Auburn is 0-1 ATS as their defense couldn’t keep Arkansas State off the board enough to make a winner out of those holding tickets (-30) for a game that ended 52-26.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 07:40 PM

Study Hall - Week 2

There is no rest for the wary when it comes to betting the college gridiron. As far as the opening weekend was concerned, shaking off the rust was more important than helping bettors cover the spread. We can look back at last week’s big movers and see that the pups covered in three of those five matchups.

Most of the smart bettors have taken notice of that from last Saturday. And they’re using it at the betting shops for Week 2’s board of quality showdowns. The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay has kept an eye on the pups this week in his list of games that showed the most movement at his sportsbook.

Saturday's Big Movers
Matchup Opening Line Current Line
UAB at SMU UAB(+13) UAB(+11.5)
Virginia at USC USC(-18) USC(-20)
Fla St. at Oklahoma Fla. St.(+9.5) Fla. St.(+7.5)
Louisiana Tech at Texas A&M A&M(-18.5) A&M(-19.5)
U.of Miami at Ohio St. Miami (+10) Miami (+8.5)

I doubt we’re going to find many people out there that are going to be arguing with the favorites that have been bumped up by the public. The Trojans looked strong in their win at Hawaii, and Virginia struggled against Richmond last weekend. Meanwhile, Aggies are getting plenty of love against a Louisiana Tech side that didn’t have a terribly convincing win over Grambling State in Sonny Dykes’ debut.

What game did make me scratch my head a bit was Florida State walking into Memorial Stadium as a 7 ½-point road pup against the Sooners. This line has actually was set with Oklahoma as a 9 ½-point home “chalk,” but the public keeps on betting it down.

The movement on the line shouldn’t be too surprising after the Sooners barely won a 31-24 decision against Utah State last Saturday. Oklahoma’s Landry Jones wasn’t sharp against the Aggies, completing 17-of-36 of his passes for 217 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. On the other side of the field are the ‘Noles, who are fresh off of a 59-6 drubbing of Samford. How could the public not want to toss cash blindly at Florida State after the Sooners’ poor play in Week 1?

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall believes that sibling familiarity and mobility can play to the Seminoles’ advantage. “I think Mark (Stoops) is likely to significantly upgrade the FSU stop unit; we have seen many platoons make quick turnarounds with new leadership, schemes, etc.” Marshall continues, “On the other side of the ball, having a dangerous and versatile sr. QB such as Ponder is a nice plus for FSU, especially since OU's pass defense apparently has not answered all of its questions after being somewhat exposed by Utah State (although Diondre Borel is very underrated). The Noles also have a veteran OL, so that combo with Ponder and the Sooners’ defensive questions indicate that FSU should be "live" at this number.”

While the Sooners are going to have issues on defense, their offense needs to find a lot less predictability. Jones has clearly proved that he isn’t on the same level of Sam Bradford to run OU’s offense. Will het get to that level? It’s hard to say he won’t. But they need to get him passing effectively so DeMarco Murray doesn’t have a giant target painted on his back. Murray racked up 218 yards and two scores on the ground against Utah State last weekend. He also needed 35 carries to reach that point. Florida State kept the Bulldogs to just 77 rushing yards in Week 1.

Something else gamblers should take into consideration is that Bob Stoops isn’t beating talent from other BCS leagues. For our purposes, Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in its last three games against teams from the BCS conferences. Florida State has won five of its last seven ATS against non-conference BCS foes, with three of those coming as an underdog.

Out in Knoxville, we find the Ducks preparing to show their wares against Tennessee in Derek Dooley’s first real challenge as its head coach.

Oregon was supposed to be in the national discussion for a championship run this year. Instead, they were known for Jeremiah Masoli’s love of taking things that didn’t belong to him. That meant Darron Thomas and Nate Costa would share QB duties for the Quack Attack as they kindly called off the dogs in a 72-0 route of New Mexico at home last week. Glad to see Chip Kelly is a gentleman of a coach.

Dooley did enough to make himself seem like the right choice to run the Volunteers last weekend with a 50-0 beatdown of UT-Martin in his debut. Despite the strong showing, Tennessee is still a 12 ½-point home pup for this game.

Are the Vols worth dropping a dollar or two on to hold close to Oregon? VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Pat Hawkins isn’t so sure that’s a good idea. “Its hard to make a strong play on Rocky Top considering their play over the last few years.”

“Oregon dominated New Mexico make no mistake, if the line crosses the two touch down threshold (14) it might be a good idea to take a shot on UT, but don't go big on this game since UT is very thin on the D-line,” concludes Hawkins. He’s got a great point there as the Volunteers gave up just 56 yards to the Skyhawks on the ground. Oregon, by comparison, logged an insane 369 rushing yards against the Lobos.

Tennessee hasn’t been all that familiar with being a home ‘dog over the years, seeing as it’s happened just 11 times since 1998. They’ve gone 4-7 straight up and 6-5 against the spread in those spots. So will we get the chance to act on Hawkins’ suggestion of +14 on the Vols? It’s going to be a matter of gamblers watching the line well into Saturday since Oregon originally started as a 13 ½-point road “chalk.”

In the interest of making a game look like “Trading Places,” I give you UAB taking on Southern Methodist. The Blazers looked every bit the part of Louis Winthorpe III last week as 13-point home favorites against Florida Atlantic. And Alabama-Birmingham held a commanding 28-12 lead into the third quarter. After taking that lead, the Blazers were picked off in their next drive and punted the ball three straight times after that turnover. After all the dust cleared, UAB found itself losing 32-31 to the Owls.

The Mustangs did their best Billy Ray Valentine impression last Saturday in Lubbock as 13-point road pups to Texas Tech. SMU found themselves losing 35-27 to the Red Raiders. You can look directly to Kyle Padron’s three interceptions as to why the ‘Stangs lost; Texas Tech was able to covert two of those picks into touchdowns on defenses working on little rest.

Now the two teams reverse roles against one other this weekend with Southern Methodist as a 11 ½-point home favorite, which is down from the 13-point spread initially sent out.

VegasInsider.com’s Marc Lawrence thinks that the oddsmakers were prisoners of the moment. “Assuredly there was an over reaction to the Blazers' loss as they were the only favorite that was upset in Week 1. Had these two teams met opening week SMU would have been no more than an 8-point favorite.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 07:40 PM

Look Aheads and Let Downs - Week 2

There was no shortage of excitement in college football’s opening weekend. Upsets, however, were at a premium. The biggest shock was Ole Miss falling at home to FCS school Jacksonville State. I firmly believe this was due to the school not being able to get Admiral Ackbar as their new mascot.

Regardless of oddly dressed person on the sidelines, the Rebels could very well be set for a surprising letdown. That means we are in line for some positive chances for the underdogs to be barking. Let’s look at a few games that fall into this category.

What a Rebel Hell…

How many folks at Ole Miss are wishing that Jeremiah Masoli was denied his appeal to play last week? That might be a bit far fetched but that’s all Rebels fans can think of after losing 49-48 in double overtime to Jacksonville State last Saturday.

Mississippi was strong on the attack with 479 total yards on offense and wasn’t penalized once during the game. Yet they coughed up the ball three times (four with the turnover on downs) to the Gamecocks, which led to 14 points. Plus, the Rebs couldn’t stop JSU drives short as they were 8-of-17 on third downs.

The betting shops aren’t too worried about that loss as they’ve made Ole Miss a 20 ½-point road favorite against the Green Wave.

It’s awfully hard to think that Tulane will push Houston Nutt into drinking some Black Label on the sideline, but there is a chance it can happen. The Green Wave are coming off of a 27-21 home win over Southeastern Louisiana. That win doesn’t sound like much, but it’s the first time Tulane has won a season opener since 2002.

The Green Wave were quite balanced on the attack last week (123 rushing yards, 129 passing yards), which could give Ole Miss some fits. But that all depends on how well Nutt gets his team to bounce back this week.

Pirates on a High…

Out of all the excitement of last weekend’s action, the biggest of the bunch was East Carolina’s 51-49 win as a seven-point home pup over the Golden Hurricane on a Hail Mary pass to Justin Jones as time expired. Not a bad way for Ruffin McNeill to open his career as a head coach at his alma mater.

Most sportsbooks have no doubt parlayed that finish into making the Pirates 12 ½-point home favorites against Memphis.

You can’t fault the betting shops for setting the line as they did in this game. ECU took quickly to Lincoln Riley’s offense, gaining 538 of total offense. And they are taking on a Tigers squad that was decimated 49-7 at Mississippi State last weekend.

So why would you take a stab with the Tigers, a team that hasn’t beaten East Carolina since 2005 and covered against them since 2000?

It can happen if you have a first-year coach and a first-year offensive coordinator taking care of an offense that brought back just five starters. This team could easily find itself confused by a passing attack that only gained 196 yards through the air, but were 20-of-32 on pass attempts. Not a bad number considering that the Bulldogs are an up-and-coming team in the SEC.

Sleeping Huskies…

Jake Locker has been tabbed as the next top pick in the next NFL Draft. As far as Washington fans are concerned, he was the reason they lost 23-17 to the Cougars. Now the Huskies come home to face off with Syracuse as 13 ½-point favorites this Saturday.

So why would this game be a problem for Huskies? Well, losing a game that they could have easily won in Provo last week is a tough pill to swallow. But Washington has the Cornhuskers coming to town on Sept. 18. That’s a Top 10 team coming into the Pacific Northwest. How can you keep your eyes on the lowly Orange?

They should keep their eyes on Syracuse for this game because they’re not as bad as they had once been. The Orange are coming off of a 29-3 win at Akron last week eight-point road faves for their first season opening win since Paul Pasqualoni was roaming the sidelines on 2003. This is a tough test for the ‘Cuse as they’re practically traveling the entire length of the country. But bettors can take heart in the fact that the Orange are 6-12 SU and 11-7 ATS as a road pup against non-conference teams since 1998. Adding a little a fuel to the fire is the fact that Washington is 4-1 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home “chalk” against non-conference teams.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 10:56 PM

Georgia, Tennessee to be shorthanded Saturday

#22 Georgia (1-0) at #24 South Carolina (1-0), Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: South Carolina -3
Georgia star receiver A.J. Green was suspended four games by the NCAA for selling his jersey for $1,000 to someone who qualifies as an agent.

Green sold his jersey from last year's Independence Bowl. The 6-foot-4 junior did not play against Louisiana-Lafayette, and will miss three more games before regaining his eligibility, according to the NCAA ruling.

Georgia will appeal the ruling, but Georgia coach Mark Richt said that three key players will return from suspensions -- sophomores RB Washaun Ealey (717 rush yds in 2009) and WR Tavarres King (377 rec. yds in 2009), and freshman FB Alec Ogletree.

******* take:These additions will give freshman QB Aaron Murray more weapons in the offense, but FoxSheets still likes the UNDER since it has occurred in 12 of 15 games in the series. Georgia’s staunch defense is a big part of that, holding South Carolina to 16 points or less in seven of the past eight meetings. Georgia’s record is 7-1 in those games.

#7 Oregon (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0), Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Oregon -13
Tennessee wide receiver Denarius Moore injured his ankle in the Vols’ season opener and is questionable for Saturday’s game against No. 7 Oregon. Moore had four catches for 66 yards and touchdown and also added a 58-yard rushing TD in the win over Tennessee-Martin. This news comes on the heels of star WR Gerald Jones (93 rec, 1,200 rec yds, 9 TD in ’09) breaking a bone in his hand in the win over UTM after catching six passes for 86 yards.

******* take:Tennessee is not a deep enough squad to suffer such key injuries and still be in the same class as Oregon. Look for the Ducks to key on RB Tauren Poole (110 rush yds, 2 TD vs. UTM) and really control the tempo in this game.

FoxSheets advise to Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. (22-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 11:02 PM

News and Notes - Week 2

RECAPS: Kent St only led 17-10 late 2Q when they got a 3rd & 10, 49 yd TD pass with 1:13 left in the half then got a 92 yd KR TD to open the 3Q. KSU held Murray St to -65 yds rushing in their 41-10 win...

SEL had a 17-15 FD edge vs Tulane and 266-252 yd edge. SEL had a 1st & gl at the 1 at the end of an 83/12pl drive early 3Q but fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB. Later they fmbl'd on their own 7 setting up a 2pl drive for a Tulane TD. They trailed 27-21 with 9:21 left and would punt on their next 2 poss and their final drive got them to the TU45 where they ran out of time...

There were a couple of key plays in the Nevada/E Washington game which was fairly close with UN only having a 553-432 yd edge. Leading 21-10, UN had the ball 3rd & 3 and got a 48 yd TD pass with just :17 left in the half to lead by 18. EW pulled within 35-24 in the 4Q and had the ball at the UN33 when they fmbl'd. UN got a TD 3pl later to extend the lead and then after converting on 4th & 13 with a 33 yd pass, added another TD with 3:38 left in their 25 pt win...

In the 1H of the UAB/FAU game, UAB had an 11-6 FD edge but only a 226-185 yd edge. The first 5 poss of the game were punts then UAB QB Isabelle got a 50 yd TD run. FAU got a 77 yd TD pass to pull within 14-12 with 3:24 left 1H but UAB drove for TD's on their next 2 poss to lead 28-12 early 3Q. UAB was seemingly in control when they were int'd and returned 38 yds for a TD. A key play happened with 4:11 left when on FAU's 56 yd punt, a holding call on UAB pinned them at the 1. UAB's punt only got out to the 38 and Morris got a TD run on the next play. UAB still had an easy shot at winning and in fact, on 3rd & gl from the 9, took a knee in the center of the field but Zahn's 28 yd chipshot FG was blk'd on the final play and FAU claimed the upset...

Hawaii did have a 308-296 yd edge vs USC at the half but the Trojans led by double digits most of the game. Backup QB Mustain came in with USC up 42-23 early 4Q. UH gained 147 yds on their final 2 drives in the 49-36 loss. USC did not have contact during their practices in the month of Aug as they are low on scholarships and that may have had something to do with UH's 588-524 yd edge for the game...

We've been saying all along that SC has their best team yet under Steve Spurrier and they sure looked like it in the opener vs Southern Miss. SM did have 404 yds offense but 174 of those yds came in the final 11:19 after they trailed 41-6. SC showed a balanced attack with 224 yds rushing and 225 yds passing...

Pitt, with a young QB and O-line, had just 60 yds in the 2Q & 3Q and Utah had a commanding 405-266 yd edge on the day. Utah appeared to lead comfortably 24-13 but Pitt rallied back for a 24-24 tie on a FG with :00 left. Utah got an int in OT and kicked the game winning FG for the 3 pt win...

Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi was injured in the 2Q but ret'd. Iowa scored TD's on their first 2 poss and blk'd a punt for a TD for a 21-0 lead but only won 37-7 and ended the game with a 10 yd run to the E Illinois 6...

Robert Bolden was the first true frosh QB to start a season opener in Joe Paterno's 45 years. Youngstown St actually led 7-3 early after a 3rd & 10 short screen pass went 80 yds for a TD but PSU led 44-7 before YSU went 80/15pl for a garbage TD with :40 left...

While Samford had 300 yds vs Florida St, they did get 57 of it in the last 2:23 of the 1H resulting in a 41 yd FG then took over trailing 59-6 with 6:36 left and went 79/16pl getting SOD on the 1 with :04 left...

Joshua Nesbitt had a pair of TD runs for Georgia Tech and both came on 4th down. The first came on their first series when on 4th & 3 he got a 35 yd TD run, the 2nd came in the 3Q on 4th & 3 with a 14 yd TD run. GT led 34-10 when they added a 10 yd TD run with 4:50 left for the 41-10 final vs S Carolina St...

Illinois had a 196-137 yd edge at the half vs Missouri and led 13-3 but would have just 85 yds and 4 FD's in the 2H. MO took the lead for good with 13:26 left. UI was SOD on 4th & 10 from their own 21 with 2:08 left and MO added a 34 yd FG with :27 left...

Michigan St/W Michigan were tied 7-7 in the 2Q. There were 2 key plays, the first when WM QB Carder was calling an audible. The C snapped it off his knee, MSU rec'd at the 31 and 4pl later had a TD. MSU was then pinned back on their own 2 and got a 75 yd run by Bell which set up a TD for a 21-7 lead. In the 4Q, MSU got a 33 yd FG with 7:30 left to go up by 24. WM had a 2nd & 1 at the 7 yd line but on 4th & 1 fired incomplete with 4:10 left. On their final drive they took over with 2:37 left but brought in a backup QB and with no sense of urgency, were stopped on 4th & 9 with :20 left...

Kentucky did have a 271-103 yd edge at the half and led 23-6 in the 3Q. Louisville trimmed it to 23-16 with 3:16 left but kicked off deep and UK got 3 FD's and ran out the clock and finished with 230 yds rushing and 236 passing...

The pressure was on Michigan to open strong and Denard Robinson accounted for 383 yds incl a school QB rushing record 197 yds. It was a football attendance record crowd of 113,090 in the newly expanded Michigan Stadium. UM jumped out to a 21-0 lead. Conn converted on 4th & 2 for a TD with :17 left in the half...

Oregon tied an Autzen Stadium record for points with 72. They set a team record with 720 yards. UO had a commanding 35-8 FD edge. NM had just 8 FD and 107 yds. There was nothing fluky about the 72-0 shutout.

While Georgia beat Louisiana 55-7 they did have only 377 yds offense. Their D allowed just 5 FD's...

AF only led Northwestern St 24-21 but scored TD's on their first six 2H poss to blow it open...

Alabama was without Heisman winner Mark Ingram and their top defensive player Marcell Dareus but it hardly mattered vs San Jose St. The Tide scored TD's on four of their first 5 drives, fumbling into the EZ for a TB on the other. QB McElroy came out with the score 21-3 and Trent Richardson had just 10 carries with Eddie Lacy leading the Tide in rushing with 111. AJ McCarron hit 9-14-116 in their 48-3 romp...

UC Davis did sit RB Joe Trombetta who led the team in rushing and was the #2 rec LY. bcompletely dominated the game. UCD had a FD on their first play of the game and a FD on the last play but had just 2 FD's in between as Cal rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead with a 332-31 yd edge and finished with 26-4 FD and 517-81 yd edges in their 52-3 romp...

W Carolina drove 87/10pl for a TD to open and forced NC State into a 3 & out but they fumbled the punt and NCSt scored on the remaining 5 poss of the 1H to lead 31-7 and did not punt again until 1:55 was left in their 48-7 win. NCSt finished with 25-9 FD and 480-189 yd edges...

A look at the box score shows N Texas with a dominating win as they held the ball for 41:52 and had a 25-15 FD edge vs Clemson. Unfortunately for NT they lost by 25. CU did have a 60 yd TD run by Ellington and a 70 yd TD pass to Clear which kept the yds close in the game and provided the TD's. NT was int'd at the CU6 and int'd in the EZ for a TB and settled for a 25 yd FG. They ended the game with the ball at the CU29...

The Oklahoma Sooners did not look like a national title contender in the opener. They did jump out to a 21-0 lead and it could have been 28-0 late 2Q as they had a TD pass called back for illegal formation and then had an int at the 24 on the next play. USU QB Borel's ability to convert on 3rd & long was the key and he threw for 340 yds. Utah St scored 10 pts in final 3:33 of the 1H to pull within 21-10. Their TD with 2:31 left in the 3Q put them within 1 score. OU was int'd at the US9 and ended at the US6 taking a knee...

UT Martin's D played decent in the 1H vs Tennessee but came up with a 23-3 FD deficit and Tenn had a 537-142 yd edge. The Vols led 13-0 after 1Q but UT actually punted on 3 straight poss before driving for a late TD in the 1H to lead 20-0 with a 225-51 yd edge. Tenn would score TD's on their first 3 poss of the 2H and added a 54 yd IR TD. They got their first shutout since 2003 and it held up when UTM missed a 43 yd FG with 9:16 left. Tenn finished the game at the UTM12...

Nebraska's D was dominant in the 1H as they rolled to a 21-0 lead as WKU only crossed midfield once and that was due to an NU pen. Taylor Martinez became the first frosh QB to start an opener for NU ever and guided TD drives on his first 2 series. Cody Green guided TD drives on his first 2 series as well. NU was in control 35-3 but WKU at the end of a 46 yd run, fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB late 3Q. Leading 42-10 WKU only got off a 4 yd punt and NU drove 13/2pl to get ahead of the spread, 49-10 with 6:56 left. NU finished the game at the WKU9 on the final play...

Memphis crossed midfield 4x in the 1H but missed 2 FG's and had a holding call wipe out a 1st & 10 at the 15. Miss St was in complete control leading 49-0 when Mem took over with 5:13 left and drove 68/8pl getting a 3rd & 8, 27 yd TD pass with 1:39 left to avoid the shutout. While Relf started and did well, backup QB Russell was the star hitting 13-16-256 yds and his 4 TD's tied a school record...

An amazing stat is that ND coaches making their debut are now 26-3. ND led 20-3 and was about to make it 27-3 when they fmbl'd into the EZ and it was ret'd to the 6. That changed the momentum and Purdue would get 9 pts on a safety & TD to pull within 8 but the Irish got the spread covering 37 yd FG with 4:30 left and ended the game at the PU30 yd line...

Virginia did lead Richmond just 14-13 and leading 21-13 Richmond was SOD on 4th & 1 at the UVA45. RU was also int at the UVA2 with 9:18 left and a 65 yd IR led to a UVA 43 yd TD drive to ice it 35-13.

GARBAGE TD'S: Boston College got the great return of LB Mark Herzlich to the lineup vs Weber St. BC's first play of the season was a false start followed by an int which set up a WSU FG. BC dominated the rest of the half leading 31-10. They led 38-13 when they were int'd in the EZ and WSU rec a fmbl with :56 left and drove 36 yds for a garbage TD with :19 left...

UCF dominated S Dakota St with a 27-13 FD edge and had 231 yds rushing and 241 passing while SDS had just 220 yds incl 58 on a final garbage drive when they took over with 3:50 left. UCF punted once all game in their dominating 38-7 win.

MISLEADING SCORES, FRONTDOOR COVERS: Showing how scores can be misleading, you may have heard that John Brantley had the Florida Gators up 21-3 over Miami, Oh. In reality, UF had a grand total of 17 yards TOTAL OFFENSE with 6:33 left in the 3Q. They were outgained 102?13 at the half but were up 21-6. Their final TD came when Brantley on 4th & 21, flung a ball in the air that bounced off a UF player and Rainey grabbed it for a 25 yd TD with 1:21 left. It was the most unimpressive 34 pts scored and UF and MU each actually had just 212 yds offense despite UF's 22 pt win...

UCLA was missing 3 OL for the game vs Kansas St and QB Prince missed a good portion of practice time during the week and he hit 9-26-120. UCLA got an 11 yd drive for a TD after a fmbl and led 10-7 at the half. The game was 17-16 after a UCLA 42 yd FG with 6:28 left. KSt drove 80/8pl for a TD with 2:03 left to go up 24-16. UCLA went 64/2pl for a TD but missed the 2pt conv, 24-22. The onside kick was rec by KS and then on 3rd & 1 with the game at the line (-2) Thomas not only got the FD but raced 37 yds for a TD with :58 left.

INJURIES OF NOTE: Middle Tenn was without QB Dasher (susp) while Minnesota's starting D lineup had 11 new starters as Theret was susp'd and the other S Royston (leg) DNP. In the 1Q they had just 33 yds but backup QB Kilgore came to life in the 2Q when MT had 174 yds offense and it was tied at 14 at half with MT having a 207-198 yd edge. Minny kept it on the ground most of the game as RB Bennett had 187 yds rushing. They did have a 12 play drive end in a punt but then pinned at their 1, went 97/13pl settling for a 19 yd FG with 14:11 left. They went 77/15pl and got a TD with 3:09 left then MT fmbl'd the ensuing KO and Minny ran out the clock.

HEISMAN HOPEFULS: Terrelle Pryor is one of the preseason favorites to win the Heisman and opened up in fine fashion. He hit 17-25-247. Marshall fmbl'd the opening KO and OSU went 22 yds for a TD and dominated much like the final of 45-7 indicates. In fact, MU's only score came on a blk'd FG which they ret'd 61 yds for a TD. OSU had a 529-199 yd edge and Pryor's last play came with 12:20 left 4Q...

Arizona dominated Toledo on Friday night. They had a 518-183 yd edge and QB Nick Foles perhaps entered the Heisman race by hitting 32-37 passes for 360 yds in an impressive debut performance.

Arkansas handled Tenn Tech and QB Ryan Mallet hit 21-24 passes for 301 yds and one of his incompletions was a potential TD pass which was dropped.

FIRST WEEK SHUTOUTS: Central Michigan beat Hampton 33-0 but their first 16 pts came on 14 yds of offense as Hampton had a snap go over the P's head for a safety then after an 83 yd return of the free kick, got a 1 yd TD drive. Then after a fmbl'd KO, CM drove 12 yds for a TD to lead 16-0. HU also had a -4 yd punt which set up a 40 yd TD drive and was int'd at the CM17 in the 1H but CM did miss a pair of short FG's late and finished with a commanding 26-11 FD and 427-129 yd edges...

Buffalo recorded its first shutout win since 2001 and had a 423-207 yd edge. They only led 10-0 late 2Q when they rec'd a fmbl with 3:34 left and got a 38 yd TD pass on the next play. They added a 46 yd drive for a TD with :40 left to lead 24-0 at the half. Rhode Island missed a 29 yd FG in the 3Q...

Idaho got their first shutout since 1997 and QB Enderle threw for 311 yds playing just to the 3Q. UI only led 17-0 at the half and they rec'd an onside kick to open the 2H and rolled to the 45-0 win with their final TD coming with 1:26 left...

It appeared Rutgers would only lead Norfolk St 3-0 at the half. A 3rd & 16, 29 yd pass to the 3 was ruled with no time left. :01 was put back on the clock and RU was able to get a 20 yd FG to lead 6-0 but still left the field to boo's. A blocked punt for a TD opened up a 21-0 lead mid-3Q and the Knights added 10 pts in the 4Q in their 31-0 shutout win...

Miami, Fl got their first shutout win since 2006, the year before Randy Shannon was on board. UM dominated with a 35-0 halftime lead and Jacory Harris played only the 1H. Fla A&M did have a 50 yd FG bounce off the upright on their 2nd drive which would have averted the shutout...

West Virginia got their first home shutout since 1997. They had an 11-2 FD edge in the 1H but did fmbl in the EZ for a TB and only led 10-0. It was 17-0 and CC missed 47 and 42 yd FG's in the 3Q before WV went 75/9pl and 63/5pl for TD's to put it away and won 31-0.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:04 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
Totals 41-41-2 50.00% -2050

September 10Game Score Status Pick Amount

West Virginia - 7:00 PM ET West Virginia -12 500 *****
Marshall - Under 46 500 *****

Texas El Paso - 10:15 PM ET Texas El Paso +20.5 500 *****
Houston - Under 75 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:52 PM

Friday's College Action

Gamblers will get two opportunities to cash tickets on the college football gridiron this Friday, as the folks at ESPN offer up a televised double-header. Conference USA will represent three of the four schools on the docket, but the other team is arguably the best, No. 23 West Virginia.
The action starts at 7:00 p.m. EDT when then the Mountaineers visit Marshall for an intrastate battle. Then, another state-pride contest takes place when Houston meets UTEP in a conference clash.

Let’s take a closer look at the pair.

West Virginia at Marshall – Expert Picks

Any gambler will tell you that laying double digits on the road isn’t always a smart approach, but sometimes its warranted and that could be the case tonight in this matchup. Most betting shops have West Virginia listed as a 12 ½-point favorite against Marshall and based on recent head-to-head history it definitely seems like a fair line.

Going back to 2006, West Virginia has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread against Marshall, notching victories by margins of 32, 25, 24 and 17.

Even though it’s fair to say that this WVU squad isn’t as good as the previous seasons, they do still boast some talent, how much is undetermined just yet. Running back Noel Devine is the featured player on offense and he showed that in last week’s 31-0 win over Coastal Carolina with 111 yards and one touchdown. Geno Smith is the new gunslinger and while he wasn’t tested, he managed to complete 20-of-27 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns. One thing different with Smith is that he’s not much of a runner, or at least not yet, carrying four times for six yards in last week’s contest.

Defensively, the Mountaineers did their part, holding Coastal Carolina to 186 yards and nine first downs. Most would expect a tougher test against the Thundering Herd but it’s hard to measure how good their unit is after watching them against Ohio State last Thursday.

The Buckeyes dominated to a 45-7 win in Columbus and held Marshall to 199 yards on offense and just 11 first downs. QB Brian Anderson saw most of the action and he completed 17-of-28 passes for 135 yards with an interception. The lone touchdown for the Herd came on a blocked field goal return.

Last year, WVU went 2-4 SU and 3-3 in road and neutral contests. And the school was 4-0 SU as a double-digit favorite, but only 1-3 versus the number. Marshall was 4-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home last season.

The total is ranging between 45 and 46 points at most books. Clear skies and temperatures in the low seventies are expected at kickoff.

UTEP at Houston – Expert Picks

Revenge is a key factor in college football, especially when it’s against a conference opponent. Last year, Houston put itself on the map with back-to-back wins over Big 12 programs, Oklahoma State (45-35) and Texas Tech (29-28). Unfortunately, the Cougars were due for a letdown and they were caught one week later in El Paso.

UTEP embarrassed Houston 58-41 and busted out their hopes of making even more noise nationally. QB Case Keenum (536 yards, 5 TDs) did his best to keep the Cougars in the game but two key fumbles, one returned for a score, couldn’t slow down the Miners.

Can Houston return the favor on Saturday? The oddsmakers believe so, making the Cougars 20-point favorites at home. They’re also expecting another shootout, with the ‘over/under’ bouncing back and forth between 74 and 75 points.

There’s no doubt that Keenum is a stud and will probably be a Heisman Trophy candidate just based on his stats, but the Cougars’ defense is suspect. In last week’s 68-28 thumping of Texas State, Houston gave up 345 yards and 11-of-20 third down conversions. Fortunately, the unit forced four turnovers to limit the number of points.

The UTEP offense isn’t as potent as Houston’s but they looked solid in a 31-10 win last week albeit against Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Miners racked up 234 yards on the ground and 28 first downs, while quarterback Trevor Vittatoe was efficient with 229 yards.

Last year’s upset by the Miners shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, considering how well they matched up with the Cougars in recent games. UTEP is only 1-2, but 3-0 ATS in the last three games.

Playing at home has been a great strength for Houston, who has gone 11-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 11 played at Robertson Stadium. On the road last season, UTEP went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, but only two of the setbacks were by 10 or more.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 04:57 PM

College Football Odds: UTEP visits Houston

Immediately after toppling Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to surge into the national spotlight, Houston was a sieve against UTEP last year, giving up 58 points and 305 yards on the ground. (The Miners had tallied nine total rushing yards against Texas one week earlier).

Cougars coach Kevin Sumlin contends that Friday night’s rematch between these Conference USA rivals at Robertson Stadium has nothing to do with revenge. Be that as it may, Houston sure has a penchant for winning games against teams that beat them within the last season.

The Cougars have won their past five ‘payback’ games by an average score of 52.6-26.2 in the Sumlin era.

Most offshore books opened Houston as 16 ½-point college football spread favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 75.

There are two sides to every college football game, and Houston pretty much has the offensive part figured out. Led by Case Keenum’s 70 percent completion rate and a blistering tempo that prefers to snap the ball with 20 seconds left on the play clock, the Cougars ranked first last season in several major offensive categories: points per game (42), total yards per game (563), touchdowns (77) and first downs per game (30).

Houston didn’t have too many kinks to work out in their 68-28 season opening win last week over FBS foe Texas State.

Keenum played just one half but still managed 274 passing yards and threw five touchdown passes, and the Cougars were up 68-7 before Texas State tacked on three touchdowns at the end of the game to cut the final margin to a deceiving 40 points.

The offense is still what makes the Miners a dangerous team. However, that danger is lessened without Donald Buckram. The senior running back missed the season opener and is listed as questionable for Friday night’s showdown.

Houston won’t soon forget that Buckram went off for 262 yards rushing and four touchdowns to key the upset last year and is preparing for UTEP to be at full strength, including having the services of Buckram.

Without their star running back, the Miners rushed for 234 yards in a 31-10 season-opening win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Between the tackles slasher Joe Banyard picked up 94 yards in 19 carries. Scatback Vernon Frazier broke off TD runs of 35 and 28 yards on the way to finishing with 89 in only six carries.

Senior quarterback Trevor Vittatoe played a significant role against the Cougars a year ago, completing 19 of 30 passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Vittatoe averaged 3,228 yards in his first three seasons at UTEP, which puts him on a pace to finish ninth in NCAA history.

The Miners have an all-senior starting offensive line that averages 6-foot-5 and 307 pounds. Are the Cougars better equipped up front with their new 3-4 defense to handle UTEP’s running game?

Houston fans know the Cougars do not need to be on the field long to score 50 points and it is unlikely that the Miners can keep up offensively and find a way to stop Keenum defensively.

UH has outgained UTEP by 162 yards per game the last four years. However, the Cougars are just 12-16 as double-digit conference favorites, while the Miners have cashed 15 of 24 in that role and 14 of 21 as road dogs overall under coach Mike Price.

UTEP has come up short in four of its last five ATS on the highway and it is just 10-24-1 ATS away from home in August/September since 1991. Houston has grabbed the cheese in nine of its last dozen at Robertson Stadium.

These schools have averaged 76 points per game in conference meetings.

The Miners have topped the college football betting 'total in nine of their last 12 on the road and in 10 of 13 off a SU win. The Cougars have jumped the number in seven of their last nine in September and in eight of nine following a SU win by 20 points or more.

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/9 - 9/11) + Best Bets !

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (9/9 - 9/11) + Best Bets !

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