Trend and Angles Week # 1 NFL Best Bets !

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Michael Bush game-time decision at Tennessee

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OAKLAND RAIDERS
TENNESSEE TITANS (-6)

Optimism runs high in the post-JaMarcus Russell era in Oakland, but the Raiders could be missing a key ingredient for Sunday’s opener at Tennessee. Running back Michael Bush had surgery on his left thumb August 31 and the hand is still heavily taped. Considering Bush (team-high 589 rush yds in 2009) carries the ball primarily with his left hand, it is possible Bush will not play Sunday.
If that is the case, Darren McFadden will get the full workload of carries. The third-year pro has yet to live up to his 4th-overall-pick hype coming out of Arkansas in 2008. To be fair, McFadden has only received 15 or more carries in two career games. In Week 2 of his rookie season at Kansas City, McFadden rushed for 164 yards on 21 carries (7.8 YPC). He also rushed 17 times for 68 yards (4.0 YPC) in last season’s opener against San Diego.

This past success shows that McFadden is capable of a big game. Tennessee does not have an elite defense, but its run defense was solid last year (106.9 YPG, tied for 11th in NFL).

Oakland’s air attack will also be depleted in Week 1. Starting WR Chaz Schillens will miss at least two weeks due to knee surgery. Newly-acquired QB Jason Campbell is also banged up with recent wrist and stinger injuries, but he will still be able to start on Sunday. Despite the injury news, Oakland has this FoxSheets trend working in its favor.

Titans head coach Jeff Fisher is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of TENNESSEE. The average score was TENNESSEE 22.6, OPPONENT 18.8 - (Rating = 0*).

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NFL Odds: Eagles host Packers in opener

The Green Bay Packers have not won a game in Philadelphia since the 1962 campaign and have been outscored by an average of 24-10 in the last seven trips there.

The Packers will attempt to reverse both trends Sunday afternoon when they travel to Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field to meet the Eagles in the season opener for both teams.

Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best odds product have the Packers listed as three-point road favorites, with the ‘total' set at 47.

The most recent meeting between these clubs at Philadelphia occurred in 2006, with the Eagles pounding the Packers 31-9 as 11-point favorites. The combined 40 points slipped ‘under' the 48 ½-point closing total. The ‘under' is now 7-1 in the last eight series meetings.

Including playoffs, the Eagles have now captured five of their last six meetings against the Packers. Philly has outscored Green Bay by a 25-15 margin during that span.

The Green Bay Packers were 11-5 both SU and ATS last season after going 6-10 SU and 8-8 ATS the year before. It is interesting to note that Packers began last year's campaign with seven consecutive ‘under' games.

The Packers own one of the league's brightest young stars in Aaron Rodgers, who became the NFL's first quarterback to pass for more than 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter.

Though the defense is aging, especially in the secondary, the Packers have added nice young pieces in linebacker Clay Mathews and defensive tackle B.J. Raji. The defense improved dramatically last season despite the switch to Dom Capers' 3-4 scheme. They allowed just 83 YPG rushing (first), compared to 132 YPG (26th) a year earlier.

Green Bay finished fifth in passing yards allowed (201 YPG) but yielded 29 passing touchdowns, which was tied for fourth most last season. However, they also had a league-best 30 interceptions and 40 overall takeaways.

Three years after arriving in Philadelphia, Kevin Kolb is now the franchise's starting quarterback. The Eagles already had an established All-Pro starter at quarterback in Donovan McNabb when they surprisingly selected Kolb in the second round of the 2007 draft.

Just as Rodgers did with Favre, Kolb watched from the sidelines for three seasons before McNabb was traded to Washington in April after 11 seasons with the team.

Kolb started twice for the injured McNabb last season and became the first NFL signal-caller to throw back-to-back 300-yard games in his first two starts. However, it is important to note that one of those games was against a porous Kansas City secondary while the other saw him throw three interceptions in a blowout loss to the Saints.

The Eagles finished the 2009 campaign with an 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS mark. That included going 3-3 ATS as a home favorite and 1-1 ATS as a home underdog. The ‘over' cashed in six of the club's first seven outings last season and finished 10-6-1 (including the playoff game with Dallas).

The Eagles finished with the league's 11th-best offense and were ranked 12th on defense. They had a rocky 5-4 start, including a crucial home loss to Dallas, but captured their next six outings. Last year's team had 70 starts lost to injury, which was the fourth most in the league.

Philly had a plus-15 turnover ratio last season and was plus-93 in point differential.

For more on this matchup, read Stephen Nover's take on the game.

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NFL Betting Preview: Raiders at Titans

prediction of 2,500 yards rushing this NFL season seems ludicrous since the record is 2,105 yards.

But when Chris Johnson sets that projection, it’s worth taking serious. Johnson opens defense of his rushing title when his Tennessee Titans host the Oakland Raiders Sunday at 10 a.m. (PT).

The Titans currently are six-point NFL spread favorites with the 'total' at 40 ½.

Johnson led the NFL with 2,006 rushing yards in 2009, finishing the season with 11 straight 100-yard ground games. Barry Sanders holds the record with 14 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Johnson ran the ball an NFL-high 358 times, averaging 5.6 yards per rush attempt behind one of the best offensive lines in football.

“The goal is 2,500 so I am going to stick to that,” Johnson was quoted as saying. “I feel like it is very realistic. People didn’t think 2,000 was realistic when I set the goal last year and I made a lot of people believers, so I am going to stick to that.”

Johnson already owns the record of three touchdowns of 85-plus yards in a career. He’s the only player to accomplish that feat.

Oakland finished 29th in run defense last year, but the Raiders believe they have shored up their rush defense adding former Jacksonville tackle John Henderson and drafting linebacker Rolando McClain of Alabama.

Tennessee began last year losing its first six games. The Titans rebounded by winning eight of their last 10 games after coach Jeff Fisher switched quarterbacks from Kerry Collins to Vince Young.

The Raiders are finally excited about their quarterback spot after going 7-18 in 25 starts with JaMarcus Russell behind center. Oakland hasn’t won more than five games since its Super Bowl appearance eight years ago, a direct contrast to Al Davis’ motto of commitment to excellence.

Oddsmakers believe Oakland will be improved assigning the Raiders a regular-season ‘over/under’ win total of 6 ½. The Raiders were 5-9 last year. Tennessee’s win total is 8 ½. The teams last met in 2007 with the Titans winning 13-9 at home.

Some believe the Raiders can’t help but be improved after finally parting ways with Russell, who was paid an obscene $39 million after being selected No. 1 overall in the 2007 draft.

New Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell was maligned in Washington where he was 20-32 as a starter there. In Oakland, though, Campbell is being hailed almost as a savior.

Campbell certainly is an upgrade on Russell, Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye. Campbell should mesh well with first-year offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who favors a balanced attack and doesn’t like to take big risks.

The 28-year-old, 6-foot-5, 230-pound Campbell has taken a pounding being sacked 102 times during the past three seasons, including 43 times last year, behind the Redskins’ injury-ravaged offensive line.

Early money has been on the Raiders and the ‘under.’ Tennessee opened seven-point favorites at some places with the ‘over/under’ at 41.

Oakland’s passing game is in transition right now and lead running back Michael Bush has a broken left thumb. Chaz Schilens was expected to be the Raiders’ top wide receiver, but he’s out with a knee injury.

Linebacker David Thornton is out with a hip injury, but other than that the Titans are healthy.

The Titans have covered nine of their last 11 games in September. They are 6-2 ATS in season-openers.

The ‘over’ is 10-4-1 in the Titans’ past 15 home contests.

Tennessee went 2-2 straight-up and ATS during preseason. Oakland won three of its four preseason matchups going 2-1-1 ATS.

The early weather forecast is for temperatures in the 70s with a chance of thunderstorms

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NFL Odds: Colts seek fast start at Texans

The Indianapolis Colts look to put another terrible preseason behind them when they visit their AFC South rival Houston Texans on Sunday.

Bookmaker.com has Indianapolis as two-point road favorites with a total of 47 points.

Indianapolis just wrapped up another preseason by going 0-4 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread. The record is 3-14 SU and 5-11-1 ATS over the last four years.

The Colts are able to flip the switch, averaging 13 wins the last three regular seasons. However, they’ve struggled in their last two season-openers, losing 29-13 to Chicago as 10-point favorites and surviving 14-12 against Jacksonville as 6 ½-point ‘chalk’ last year. Both were home games.

Indy is also dealing with its crushing Super Bowl upset to New Orleans. The last losing team to make the Super Bowl the next year was the 1993 Buffalo Bills. Seven of the last nine haven’t even made the playoffs.

Quarterback Peyton Manning has had several bad playoff losses, but has always bounced back the next year. The four-time NFL MVP has a bevy of weapons with receivers Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez joining tight end Dallas Clark.

There are offensive line problems with center Jeff Saturday (knee) and left tackle Charlie Johnson (foot) and backup Tony Ugoh (toe) all questionable due to injuries. Manning is also adjusting to Clyde Christensen calling the plays after Tom Moore handled the job for so many years.

Finally, the changing of the umpire position has affected the no-huddle offense. The league is reviewing the procedure and could make more changes before Sunday’s game.

Indianapolis’ defense ranked 18th in yards allowed last year (339.2) and eighth in points (19.2). Almost all the key pieces return and safety Bob Sanders is back in the mix. It’s safe to ignore the 40 PPG the unit allowed this preseason.

Indianapolis is the 405 favorite to win the AFC and 525 to win the Super Bowl.

The Texans went 9-7 SU and 7-7-2 ATS last year. They won their final four games for the first winning season in franchise history. They’ve still never made the playoffs.

Coach Gary Kubiak is in his fifth season, showing gradual improvement with records of 6-10, 8-8, 8-8, and 9-7. That was good enough for owner Bob McNair, who signed him to a contract extension through 2012.

Quarterback Matt Schaub is back to lead the NFL’s top-rated passing attack (290.9 YPG). He has a superstar receiver in Andre Johnson and a terrific tight end in Owen Daniels, who is back from knee surgery. Matt Leinart was recently signed after being dumped by Arizona, but Dan Orlovsky is the backup for now.

The offense scored 24.3 PPG, ranked 10th in the league. Rushing was the big weakness at 30th in total yards and only 3.5 per carry. Arian Foster is the main man after a great training camp and preseason.

The defense ranked 13th in total yards last year (324.9) and 17th in points (20.8). Cornerback Dunta Robinson was lost as a free agent and replaced by rookie Kareem Jackson. Star linebacker Brian Cushing will miss the first four games with a league substance abuse suspension.

Houston is an interesting underdog pick at plus 1200 to win the AFC. It has the hardest strength of schedule, but Kubiak needs to at least make the playoffs.

Houston’s injury report looks good with running back Steve Slaton (toe) and linebacker Xavier Adibi (groin) both probable.

Indianapolis is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings against the Texans and 15-1 SU lifetime. Many recent games have been close, with the road team going 4-0 ATS. Houston led 17-0 at home last year before Indy went on a 35-3 run.

The ‘over’ is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Kickoff is at 10 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather is not a factor with the retractable roof of Reliant Stadium.

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Today's NFL Best Bets:

( Note my best bets will be the ones played in a parlay- the rest of the games are only opinions )

Sunday, September 12Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville -3 500
Jacksonville - Under 40.5 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +6 500
Tennessee - Over 40 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET New England -5 500
New England - Under 44 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +2.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 37 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Houston +1 500
Houston - Under 47.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +6.5 500
Chicago - Over 44 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Pittsburgh - Under 38 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +3 500
Buffalo - Under 38.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +6 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 41 500

Green Bay - 4:15 PM ET Philadelphia +3 500
Philadelphia - Over 47.5 500

Arizona - 4:15 PM ET Arizona -3.5 500
St. Louis - Over 38.5 500

San Francisco - 4:15 PM ET San Francisco -3 500
Seattle - Over 36.5 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Washington +3.5 500
Washington - Under 40 500

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Two 6 Team parlays ( These are my BEST BETS PLAYS )


Placed Description Risking To Win

09/12/2010 by ONLINE at 05:46 AM [Ticket #: 81781551] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) RR (1P-6T)

09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [454] TOTAL u41 1.91
(CAROLINA vrs NY GIANTS)
09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [456] BUFFALO +3 1.91
09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [459] TOTAL o44½ 1.91
(DETROIT vrs CHICAGO)
09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [463] CLEVELAND +3 1.87
09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [468] HOUSTON +1 1.91
09/12/2010 @ 10:00 AM NFL [469] TOTAL o40½ 1.91
(OAKLAND vrs TENNESSEE)


09/12/2010 by ONLINE at 05:49 AM [Ticket #: 81781642] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) RR (1P-6T)

09/12/2010 @ 01:15 PM NFL [472] PHILADELPHIA +3 1.83
09/12/2010 @ 01:15 PM NFL [473] SAN FRANCISCO -3 1.95
09/12/2010 @ 01:15 PM NFL [475] TOTAL o39½ 1.91
(ARIZONA vrs ST. LOUIS)
09/12/2010 @ 01:15 PM NFL [476] ST. LOUIS +3½ 1.91
09/12/2010 @ 05:20 PM NFL [477] TOTAL o39½ 1.91
(DALLAS vrs WASHINGTON)
09/12/2010 @ 05:20 PM NFL [478] WASHINGTON +3 2.10


Good Luck Gang !


By the way...this was yesterday's 9 team parlay


09/11/2010 by ONLINE at 09:00 AM [#81698788] PARLAY (9 TEAMS) (Risking: 5.00 - To Win: 1,679.26)

09/11/2010 - 09:00 AM CFB [312] SOUTH CAR. -3 1.91
Score: GEORGIA(6) - SOUTH CAR.(17) WIN

09/11/2010 - 12:45 PM CFB [328] CALIFORNIA -10 1.91
Score: COLORADO(7) - CALIFORNIA(52) WIN

09/11/2010 - 12:40 PM CFB [330] OKLAHOMA -7 1.91
Score: FLORIDA ST(17) - OKLAHOMA(47) WIN

09/11/2010 - 12:45 PM CFB [331] MICHIGAN +3½ 1.91
Score: MICHIGAN(28) - NOTRE DAME(24) WIN

09/11/2010 - 12:50 PM CFB [338] OHIO ST -8½ 1.91
Score: MIAMI FLA(24) - OHIO ST(36) WIN

09/11/2010 - 01:10 PM CFB [340] AIR FORCE -1½ 1.91
Score: BYU(14) - AIR FORCE(35) WIN

09/11/2010 - 04:10 PM CFB [343] OREGON -11 1.91
Score: OREGON(48) - TENNESSEE U(13) WIN

09/11/2010 - 04:15 PM CFB [360] ALABAMA -13½ 1.91
Score: PENN ST(3) - ALABAMA(24) WIN

09/11/2010 - 07:40 PM CFB [371] STANFORD -6 1.91
Score: STANFORD(35) - UCLA(0) WIN


Now lets go and kick some BUTT.............

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Week 1 Late Underdogs

The late card in Week 1 of the NFL provides bettors with just three NFC games, but each contest has a recurring theme. All three road teams are listed as favorites, as eight away squads will be laying points in the opening week of the season. The NFC West will get a healthy look at one another this week with San Francisco traveling to Seattle and St. Louis hosting Arizona. We'll begin in the City of Brotherly Love with Green Bay looking to make that step into the NFC's elite.

Packers (-3, 47 ½) at Eagles - 4:15 PM EST

One of the biggest public plays on the board this Sunday is Mike McCarthy's Packers, who are coming off a 10-6 season and first-round playoff loss at Arizona. The Eagles, meanwhile, have moved on from the Donovan McNabb era by inserting Kevin Kolb as the starting quarterback this season.

Green Bay has been a solid road favorite under McCarthy, owning an 8-4 ATS mark since 2007, including a 4-2 ATS ledger last season. The Pack outscored opponents by 10 ppg, as Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay's offense to 28.8 ppg, third-best output in the league last season. The Packers have turned into a great play in openers, going 3-1 SU/ATS, while compiling a 4-0 SU/ATS record in road openers.

Philadelphia has made the playoffs three of the last four seasons, but have been unable to make the Super Bowl since 2004. The Eagles are in a spot on Sunday they have seen only twice in the last three seasons - the role of the home underdog. The first two times out were not good for Philadelphia backers, as the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (2007) and Saints (2009) each by over 21 points. Since 2006, Andy Reid's team is 3-1 SU/ATS in season openers, with the only loss coming at Lambeau Field in 2007 by a 16-13 count. Coincidentally, that was the last time these two teams have met in the regular season.

The home team has won each of the previous five meetings dating back to January 2004 when the Eagles eliminated the Packers in the second round of the playoffs, 20-17 in overtime. Philadelphia finished 'over' the total in six of eight home games last season, while scoring at least 27 points on six occasions.

49ers (-3, 37) at Seahawks - 4:15 PM EST

With the gradual progression of San Francisco over the last three seasons, many believe that the Niners will make that next step to a division title in 2010. The first test for Mike Singletary's team is a trip to the Pacific Northwest against a Seahawks' squad that begins a new era with Pete Carroll as head coach.

San Francisco dominated the weak NFC West last season with a 5-1 SU/ATS mark, including a sweep of division champ Arizona. The Niners own the most balanced weapons at skill positions in the division with Frank Gore (RB), Michael Crabtree (WR), and Vernon Davis (TE), but there are still questions about quarterback Alex Smith. The former top pick out of Utah went 5-6 as the starter last season, replacing the ineffective Shaun Hill. The Niners went 1-5 SU in Smith's six road starts in 2009, including a 20-17 setback at Qwest Field last December.

After a successful run at USC, Carroll has put his mark on this Seahawks' organization, starting with the release of Pro Bowl wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh last weekend. There is still a lot for this Seattle offense to prove, but most of it will hinge on the health of Matt Hasselbeck, who has played in 21 games over the last two seasons. After finishing 10-6 in both 2006 and 2007, the Seahawks are just 9-23 the last two years, including a dreadful 6-10 record at home. Seattle managed a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS mark as an underdog at Qwest Field in 2009, as the 'Hawks lost to the Bears and Titans.

This series has been very inconsistent with winners over the last few seasons, as the two clubs have split the previous eight meetings. The Seahawks drilled the 'under' in six of eight home games last season, while the Niners hit the 'under' in five of eight away contests.

Cardinals (-4, 39) at Rams - 4:15 PM EST

Arizona begins life without Kurt Warner on Sunday as the revamped Cardinals head to their old home in St. Louis. Granted, the Cards have been away from the Midwest for over 20 years, while the Rams have won just two home games over the last three seasons. The Cardinals will begin their NFC West title defense with a brand-new quarterback not named Matt Leinart.

The former Heisman Trophy winner was released before the end of training camp, replaced by ex-Browns quarterback Derek Anderson. The offense also suffered the loss of Anquan Boldin to Baltimore, while the defense saw Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle leave in free agency. Arizona owns a dynamic 12-2 SU record against division opponents over the last two seasons, while going 8-4 ATS. The Cards were unable to cash a road favorite in 2009, compiling an 0-3 ATS mark, but did win at Detroit and St. Louis.

It's amazing that we are a decade removed from "The Greatest Show on Turf," when the Rams owned the most explosive offense in the league. St. Louis scored 10 points or less nine times last season, while winning just one game. The Rams have struggled as a single-digit home underdog since November 2007, owning a 4-12 ATS and 1-15 SU mark.

Arizona is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS under Ken Whisenhunt against St. Louis, while each of the last four meetings has finished 'under' the total. The Rams are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS since 2008 against division foes, but both covers came at home against the Cardinals.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 1

During the pro football regular season, handicapper Vince Akins will be providing detailed database trends based on the SDQL query tool. Please make a note that with limited trends active in Week 1 due to the lack of previous game data, we are using this opportunity to show the ability to run teaser trends. Any trend with the “p6” or “m6” designation after the ATS is a two-team teaser trend, meaning it qualifies as a winner within six points of the line or total. “p6” is for a play on teaser and “m6” is for a play against teaser.

Vikings at Saints – The Vikings are 12-0-1 ATSp6 (13.4 ppg) since December 25, 2005 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home.

Lions at Bears – The Bears are 8-0 ATSp6 (10.2 ppg) since December 02, 1990 as a 7+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.

Dolphins at Bills –The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 01, 2002 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

Browns at Buccaneers – The Browns are 10-0 ATSp6 (8.3 ppg) since October 01, 2006 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

Packers at Eagles –The Packers are 7-0 OU (17.6 ppg) since October 22, 2006 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent.

Panthers at Giants – The Giants are 9-1-1 OU (6.5 ppg) since November 25, 2007 as a 7+ favorite.

Broncos at Jaguars –The Broncos are 10-0 ATSp6 (16.0 ppg) since October 01, 1989 as a road dog before playing at home in each of the next two weeks.

Bengals at Patriots – The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATSp6 (8.9 ppg) since December 20, 1992 versus the Bengals.

Cardinals at Rams – The Cardinals are 8-0-1 ATS (9.8 ppg) since October 02, 2005 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since September 09, 2007 within 3 of pick at home. The Rams are 0-22 ATSm6 (-14.6 ppg) since October 15, 2006 vs a divisional opponent.

Cowboys at Redskins –The Redskins are 0-13 OU (-8.7 ppg) since October 19th, 2003 vs any team that has beaten them three straight, as long as the total is less than 43. The Redskins are 0-8-1 OU (-11.6 ppg) since December 16, 2001 as a home dog vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

49ers at Seahawks –The 49ers are 8-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 12, 2004 vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.

Falcons at Steelers – The Falcons are 9-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since September 08, 2002 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent.

Colts at Texans – The Colts are 9-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since December 11, 2005 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home.

Raiders at Titans – The Raiders are 0-11 ATSm6 (-12.6 ppg) since September 01, 1991 on the road in their season opener.

Chargers at Chiefs –The Chiefs are 0-9 ATSm6 (-10.6 ppg) since September 20, 1993 at home on Monday Night Football.

Ravens at Jets –The Ravens are 0-6 OU (-11.3 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent.

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Returning Starters

A Week 1 bettor should find this to be a very useful tool. It is a team by team breakdown of returning starters from last season. I also included the coaching staff with a few notes for each member. FYI, I used the depth chart from Week 1 of last season and compared it with this season’s lineup.

The unofficial depth chart is the only one available in most cases so there may be a few moves not covered since the table was created. It is likely to be very accurate, though. I also included my opinion on the quality of the transition including the particular groups that will be affected.

Most of my assessments on the net gain or loss are easily agreed upon, but there is one type that you should be aware of. If a player remains on the roster, but drops in the depth chart, I consider that an improvement regardless of the actual player substitution. For those of you paying close attention, the difference in many categories means there was no predictable net effect to the groups affected by the change.

If you copy this into excel you can manipulate it very easily to compare matchups for the first couple weeks. I’m sure this will be helpful for your fantasy leagues as well.
New York Jets

Head Coach: Rex Ryan

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer

Defensive Coordinator: Mike Pettine - 2nd season with Jets, 3-4 Defense

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 2 (DB & DL)
- Key Losses 1 (LB)

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New England Patriots

Head Coach: Bill Bellichick

Defensive Coordinator: Corwin Brown - First Year coaching the Pats (Most recent Experience: 07-09 in the same role for Notre Dame) Switching to a 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 3 – (WR & OL)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 1 (DB)

Buffalo Bills

Head Coach: Chan Gailey - First Year coaching the Bills, 35 years experience (Most recent NFL Experience: 2008 KC as Off. Coordinatorinator)

Offensive Coordinator: Curtis Modkins - First year coaching the Bills, 3 years NFL experience (2009 Arizona RB Coach)

Defensive Coordinator: George Edwards - First year coaching the Bills, 13 years NFL experience (Past 5 seasons with Dolphins as LB Coach) SWITCHING TO A 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (WR)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 1 (DE)

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Tony Sporano

Offensive Coordinator: Dan Henning (3rd Yr with MIA)

Defensive Coordinator: Mike Nolan - First Year with the Bills, 24 Yrs Experience (Served in same role with DEN in 2009) KEEPING THE 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 4 (OL & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 2 (LB)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Head Coach: Mike Tomlin

Offensive Coordinator: Bruce Arians

Defensive Coordinator: Dick LeBeau - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 2 (OL & WR)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 9
- Improvements 2 (LB & DB)
- Key Losses 0

Baltimore Ravens

Head Coach: John Harbaugh

Offensive Coordinator: Cam Cameron

Defensive Coordinator: Greg Mattison - 2nd Year as Ravens D Coordinator, 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 9
- Improvements 2 (OL & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 2 (DL & LB)
- Key Losses 2 (DB)

Cincinnati Bengals

Head Coach: Marvin Lewis

Offensive Coordinator: Bob Bratkowski

Defensive Coordinator: Mike Zimmer - 3rd Yr as Bengals D Coordinator, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 4 (DL & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 11
- Improvements -
- Key Losses -

Cleveland Browns

Head Coach: Eric Mangini

Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll - 2nd Season as O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Rob Ryan - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 4 (QB, RB, TE)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 4 (DE, LB, DB)
- Key Losses 1 (DB)

Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach: Jim Caldwell

Offensive Coordinator: Clyde Christensen

Defensive Coordinator: Larry Coyer - 2nd season as Colts D Coordinator, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 1 (OL)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach: Jack Del Rio

Offensive Coordinator: Dirk Koetter - 4th season as Jags O Coord

Defensive Coordinator: Mel Tucker - 2nd Season as Jags Def Coord (Served in the same role for Browns in 2008), 4-3 EFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 1 (OL)
- Key Losses 1 (WR)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 1 (DE)
- Key Losses 3 (DL,DB)

Tennessee Titans

Head Coach: Jeff Fischer

Offensive Coordinator: Mike Heimerdinger - 3rd Season as Titans O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Chuck Cecil - 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 1 (DL)
- Key Losses 4 (DE, LB, DB)

Houston Texans

Head Coach: Gary Kubiak

Offensive Coordinator: Rick Dennison - First Season as O Coord of Texans - (Worked in same role for Broncos 06-08)

Defensive Coordinator: Frank Bush - 2nd season as Texans D Coord, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 1 (OL)
- Key Losses 1 (OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 1 (CB)
- Key Losses 0

San Diego Chargers

Head Coach: Norv Turner

Offensive Coordinator: Clarence Shelmon - 4th season as Chargers O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Ron Rivera - 3rd Season as Chargers D Coordinator - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (WR)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 9
- Improvements 1 (DL)
- Key Losses 1 (CB)

Oakland Raiders

Head Coach: Tom Cable

Offensive Coordinator: Hue Jackson - First Season as Raiders Off Coordinator (Past 2 seasons with Ravens as QB Coach)

Defensive Coordinator: John Marshall - Second season as Raiders D Coordinator (Served in the same role for the Seahawks from 06-08), 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 2 (QB & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 2 (LB)
- Key Losses 0

Denver Broncos

Head Coach: Josh McDaniels

Offensive Coordinator: Mike McCoy - 2nd Season as Broncos O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Don Martindale - First Season as Broncos D Coordinator: Most experience in NCAA (Spent last season as Broncos LB Coach), Keeping the 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 1 (RB)
- Key Losses 1 (FB)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 1 (LB)
- Key Losses 1 (LB)

Kansas City Chiefs

Head Coach: Todd Haley

Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Weiss - First Season as Chiefs Off Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Romeo Crennel - First Season as Chiefs Def Coordinator, KEEPING THE 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 3 (WR, TE, RB)
- Key Losses 1 (OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 0

New York Giants

Head Coach: Tom Coughlin

Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Gilbride

Defensive Coordinator: Perry Fewell - First Season as Giants D Coordinator, Has history with Coughlin in Jacksonville, (Recently the head coach of Buffalo), 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 9
- Improvements 1 (WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 3 (LB & DB)
- Key Losses 1 (DB)

Philadelphia Eagles

Head Coach: Andy Reid

Offensive Coordinator: Marty Mortinweg

Defensive Coordinator: Sean McDermott - 2nd season as Eagles D Coordinator, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 1 (WR)
- Key Losses 2 (QB & OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 3 (DE & LB)
- Key Losses 0

Washington Redskins

Head Coach: Mike Shanahan - First Season with Skins

Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Shanahan - First season with the Skins o Spent past 2 seasons in the same role for the Texans

Defensive Coordinator: Jim Haslett - First season with the Skins o 24 yrs NFL experience; Most recently as Rams head coach, SWITCHING TO A 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 2 (QB & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 2 (DE & DB)
- Key Losses 0

Dallas Cowboys

Head Coach: Wade Phillips

Offensive Coordinator: Jason Garrett

Defensive Coordinator: Wade Phillips - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 3 (DL, OL)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 10
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (DB)

Minnesota Vikings

Head Coach: Brad Childress

Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell

Defensive Coordinator: Leslie Frazier - 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 10
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 1 (WR – Out 6 Wks)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 10
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 0

Chicago Bears

Head Coach: Lovie Smith

Offensive Coordinator: Mike Martz - First season as O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Rod Marinelli - First season as D Coordinator, (Spent last season as DLine coach), Keeping the 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 1 (WR)
- Key Losses 1 (OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 2 (DE)
- Key Losses 0

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy

Offensive Coordinator: Joe Philbin - Third season as Packers O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Dom Capers - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 3 (DL)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 2 (DL & LB)
- Key Losses 2 (DL & DB)

Detroit Lions

Head Coach: Jim Schwartz

Offensive Coordinator: Scott Linehan - 2nd season as O coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Gunther Cunningham - 2nd season as D coordinator

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 2 (TE & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 3
- Improvements 2 (DL)
- Key Losses 0

New Orleans Saints

Head Coach: Sean Payton

Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael - 2nd Season as O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Gregg Williams - 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 11
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 8
- Improvements 1 (LB)
- Key Losses 1 (LB)

Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach: Mike Smith

Offensive Coordinator: Mike Mularkey - 3rd season as O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Brian Van Gorder - 2nd season as D Coord, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 11
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 4 (DL, LB, DB)
- Key Losses 0

Tampa Bay Bucs

Head Coach: Raheem Morris

Offensive Coordinator: Greg Olson - 2nd Season as O Coord

Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris - 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 7
- Improvements 1 (DL)
- Key Losses 2 (WR)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 4
- Improvements 5 (DL, LB, DB)
- Key Losses 0

Carolina Panthers

Head Coach: John Fox

Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Davidson - 4th season as O Coord

Defensive Coordinator: Ron Meeks - 2nd season as D Coord, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 2 (TE & WR)
- Key Losses 2 (QB & FB)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 3 (DL, LB)

San Francisco 49ers

Head Coach: Mike Singletary

Offensive Coordinator: Jimmy Raye - 2nd season as O Coordinator

Defensive Coordinator: Greg Manusky - 4th season as D Coordinator, 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 2 (QB & WR)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 2 (LB & DB)
- Key Losses 0

Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach: Pete Carroll - First season as Seahawks head coach o USC Trojans Head Coach for past 9 yrs

Offensive Coordinator: Jeremy Bates - First season as Seahawks O Coordinator o Was O Coordinator for Carroll at USC last season

Defensive Coordinator: Casey Bradley - First season as Seahawks D Coordinator Never worked in this role before (Spent the past 2 seasons with Bucs as LB coach), KEEPING 4-3 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 4
- Improvements 1 (DL)
- Key Losses 0

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 1 (DB)
- Key Losses 4 (DE & DB)

St. Louis Rams

Head Coach: Steve Spagnuolo - First season with Rams

Offensive Coordinator: Pat Shurmur - First season with Rams, Spent past 7 seasons as QB coach in Philly

Defensive Coordinator: Ken Flajole - First season with Rams, Spent past 6 seasons as LB coach in Carolina, KEEPING THE 4-3 DEFENSE Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 0
- Key Losses 2 (QB & OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 5 (DL, LB, DB)
- Key Losses 0

Arizona Cardinals

Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt

Offensive Coordinator: Whisenhunt/Grimm

Defensive Coordinator: Bill Davis - 2nd season as D Coordinator, 3-4 DEFENSE

Offense Number (Groups Affected)

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 5
- Improvements 2 (OL, RB)
- Key Losses 2 (QB & OL)

Defense

- Returning Starters from Wk 1 ‘09 6
- Improvements 1 (LB)
- Key Losses 1 (LB)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 1

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (Thursday, September 9)... Vikes have covered five straight vs. Saints dating back to ‘01, including LY’s NFC title game and the Saints’ infamous gold jerseys game in ‘02. Last five in series "over" as well. Saints have won and covered 4 of last 5 openers and are "over" 17-7 last 24 at Superdome. Vikes "over" 12-6 last 18 away. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

CAROLINA at NY GIANTS... First reg.-season game in new stadium for Giants. Big revenge for Giants after late-season 41-9 loss to Carolina effectively KO’s them from playoffs. Coughlin just 2-9 vs. line down stretch LY after G-Men had recorded spectacular 32-11 mark in previous 43 spread decisions. Giants also 11-4 "over" LY and "over" 16-9 as host since ‘07, John Fox only 9-10. Tech edge-Giants and slight to "over," based on extended team and "totals" trends.

MIAMI at BUFFALO... Ugh! Chan debut for Bills. Bills have won and covered last 5 vs. Dolphins at Orchard Park (Miami won at Toronto in 2008). Sparano, however, is 11-4 vs. line his last 15 away. Tech edge-slight to Bills, based on series trends.

ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH... Steelers weren’t "over" as much at home LY, but still "over" 30-13 last 43 at Heinz Field. Steel just 2-5 vs. line at home for Tomlin LY and 4-10 as chalk in ‘09. Steel has won SU last 7 openers and had covered 4 in a row prior to non-cove rin opener LY vs. Titans. Falcs 11-5 vs. line LY and they’re "over" 7-4 last 11 away. Tech edge-Falcs and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

DETROIT at CHICAGO... Last 3 and 6 of last 8 "over" in series. Lovie just 5-9 as Solider Field chalk since ‘07. Note thast Lions slipped to 1-5-2 vs. line away LY after covering last 6 on road in winless SU 2008 campaign. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND... Belichick far from an automatic go-with at Gillette Stadium lately, just 9-12 last 21 as home chalk. Belichick also just 1-3 vs. line last 4 openers. Belichick also just 18-23 vs. number last 41 spread decisions. Marvin Lewis 9-2 his last 11 as dog. Tech edge-Bengals, based on recent trends.

CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY... Bucs 1-7 vs. line at home LY and 1-10 vs. number last 11 off Dale Mabry Highway. Bucs also "under" 17-10 their last 27 as host. Browns closed ‘09 with 7 straight covers. Tech edge-Browns and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

DENVER at JACKSONVILLE... McDaniels opened with 6 straight covers LY before faltering, but was still 5-3 vs. line away. Broncos also "over" 5-3 away LY and 10-6 away since ‘08. Del Rio a poor 9-23 vs. line since ‘08 (5-11 LY) and just 3-13 against number as host since ‘08. Jags also "over" 7-4 last 11 at home. Tech edge-Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON... Nine of last ten meetings "over" in series. Some very close games lately in series, with Indy covering only 2 of last 7 meetings, although Colts have beaten Texans six straight. Colts 8-1 vs. line last 9 reg.-season road games. Houston 4-1 as home dog for Kubiak since ‘07 with the loss coming LY vs. Colts. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at TENNESSEE... Teams haven’t met since ‘07, at which point Raiders had covered 3 straight. Raiders 7-5 last 12 as road dog for Tom Cable. Tale of two seasons LY for Titans, but note they’re just 3-9 their last 12 as chalk. Titans also "over" 10–4-1 last 15 at home. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Birds "over" 10-2 last 12 at Linc. Pack is 33-17 vs. line last 50 on board since late ‘06 and 18-8 its last 26 away from Lambeau. If Packers dogs note 13-4 mark as "short" since ‘07 (9-3 away), but Pack also 8-4 as road calk since ‘07. Tech edge-Packers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE... Pete Carroll Seattle debut. Singletary 9-4-3 vs. line LY and 14-6-4 last 24 on board since late ‘08. Singletary also "under" 15-6 last 21. Seahawks had been much better vs. line at home (15-8) than at home (8-17) the past three seasons for Holmgren and Mora, Jr. Seattle also "under" 11-3 last 14 at Qwest Field. Tech edge-"Under" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS... Cards have won last 7 in series SU and have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Rams. Last four "under" in series as well. Arizona, however, was 0-3 as road chalk in ‘09. Rams "under" 13-8 last 21 on board and are 7-14 as home dog since ‘07 (3-5 in role LY). Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and series trends.

DALLAS at WASHINGTON... Shanahan’s Washington debut. Last 3 and 4 of last 5 "under" in series. Teams have split spread decisions the last two years but Skins 5-2 vs. number past 7 meetings. Wade Phillips only 5-10 vs. line last 15 on road. Skins were only 2-6 vs. line at home LY and just 5-11 as host past two years for Jim Zorn. Skins also "under" 19-9 last 28 at FedEx Field. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.

BALTIMORE at NY JETS (Monday, September 13)... Rex Ryan vs. old employer! Note John Harbaugh 23-13 vs. line past two seasons for Ravens, 12-8 vs. line on road. Baltimore also "under" 17-9 last 26 overall. Rex only 3-4 as home chalk LY. Tech edge-Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY...Norv just 5-9-1 vs. line in first five games of season the past three years for Bolts. Sort of the Oregon State of the NFL. Norv also just 3-5 last 8 as road chalk, and no covers in opener past two years. Norv, however, won and covered big on both meetings vs. KC LY. Chiefs just 2-6 vs. line at home for Todd Haley in his debut LY, and KC "over" 9-5 LY. KC also "over" 16-7 last 23 for Haley and Herm Edwards. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck as always

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 1
WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL ACTION

Back with my weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the coming Sunday and Monday action in the NFL.

I have to use a slightly different approach than usual in this first week. Opening lines went up long ago for Week One action because sportsbooks are desperate to create action during the summer. What sharps thought at first about a game may have changed during the course of the Preseason, or with breaking news this week. There are a few sides and totals this week where the same sharp bettor has positions all over the place that were taken weeks apart.

That won't happen next week and beyond. This week it's a bit of a monkey wrench. Some sharps are happy with the initial positions they took weeks ago. Some have been flip-flopping. Some are still waiting to see what the public does on the first big betting Sunday of the new season.

Here's a summary, with games presented in rotation order:

CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS: Not much passion about this one. Sharps took Carolina +7 when it was available. If the line goes back up to +7 on game day because of public action on the Giants, they'd probably step in again. I'm seeing mostly +6 and +6½ right now. No interest in the total.

MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Miami was bet up from -2 to -3, as most sharps are pretty skeptical about the Bills this year. An opening total of 38 is up to 39. Early season weather is usually pretty nice in Buffalo, so the totals guru's aren't afraid to take Overs.

ATLANTA AT PITTSBURGH: Atlanta opened at pick-em. You're seeing anywhere from -1½ to -2 as we go to press. Some sharps think Dennis Dixon will be fine at QB for the Steelers. Others are trusting him in two-team teasers at +7½ or +8 points, but not at the regular game spread. The totals guys have hit the Under hard. An opener of 41 is way down to 37½.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO: Support for Detroit and Over here based on the Preseason. The Lions started showing signs of life, so they inspired sharps to take +7 (it's +6½ now in most places). The total has moved up from 42½ to 44 on the assessment that Mike Martz will add points to Chicago games...and that Matthew Stafford is getting better for the Lions.

CINCINNATI AT NEW ENGLAND: Cincinnati +6 was a popular sharp play. We're now seeing +4½ everywhere. The Bengals did make the playoffs last year, and did add Terrell Owens in the offseason. Some sharps experimented with Under bets a few weeks ago, but bought off them once it was clear in Preseason games that both offenses have the potential to move the ball very effectively.

CLEVELAND AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay has been bet from -1 up to -3. Some of that is support for the hosts...and some of that is sportsbooks keeping the line at three to discourage teaser bets on Cleveland at +2½. I'm not currently getting the sense that sharps are enthusiastic about either team in the immediate future, though that could change with this result.

DENVER AT JACKSONVILLE: Here's another game where sportsbooks are deciding whether or not they want the teaser action. If they don't, Jacksonville is -3. If they do, Jacksonville is -2½. Please see my article earlier this week for a deeper explanation about how "basic strategy" teaser betting has influenced the regular lines. Support on the Under here, with an opener of 42 coming down to 40.

INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON: Houston was +3 awhile back, but is now +2. Sharps took some spankings going against Peyton Manning in recent years. They know Jeff Saturday is out at center though...and that the Colts are less effective when that's the case. Houston is a popular teaser bet for sure, and sharps who got +3 are happy about it. If the public comes in on Manning Sunday morning to drive the line back to a field goal, sharps will back Houston again.

OAKLAND AT TENNESSEE: Oakland's been getting some good press out here in Nevada as a team that could improve this season. They were +7 at first, but the line is down to +6. I've told you in the past that Reno and Las Vegas are like "home" cities for Raiders fans in terms of support in local sportsbooks. Square money may start influencing Raiders lines this year if they do start to play better ball.

GREEN BAY AT PHILADELPHIA: Green Bay was one of the more popular of the sharp bets through the summer. The opener of pick-em is now up to Green Bay -3, with little buy back on the underdog at +3. That tells you the sharps really like what they're seeing so far with the Packers. The total has jumped from 46 to 47½, and it's rare to see Over bets this early in the season from sharps. You saw how hard they bet the Under in Minnesota/New Orleans the other night.

SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE: Another big move here from the summer openers. San Francisco has gone from +1 up to -3. Sharps were skeptical initially about the hiring of Pete Carroll from USC. The more they watched of Preseason, the more skeptical they got. Also note that there hasn't been any buyback here on the dog yet.

ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS: The total has come down here from 42 to 39½. Sharps aren't optimistic about Derek Anderson thriving right away for Arizona, or Sam Bradford hitting the ground running as a rookie QB for St. Louis. That sentiment showed up as totals action rather than team side action.

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON: Dallas is the sharp side at -3, but we're seeing a line above a field goal in most places. The total has dropped from 43½ down to 40 (and lower in some spots). Donovan McNabb is going to play hurt, which suggested to sharps that this wasn't going to be a high scoring shootout.

BALTIMORE AT NY JETS: Sharps don't think much of the Jets offense. That hasn't changed from last season. The opener was Jets -3, with a total of 37½. We're now seeing Jets by just 2½ and a total of 35½. Baltimore is a popular teaser choice too because every point you move the line is more valuable in a low scoring game. It will be interesting to see what the public does on game day Monday, with the Jets appearing on HBO's "Hard Knocks" all summer.

SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY: Support on Kansas City has brought the line down from San Diego -5½ to San Diego -4½. I mentioned during my summer divisional write-ups that many sharps are skeptical about San Diego this year, and looking for value with Oakland and Kansas City in the AFC West. That showed up here as KC money.

That wraps up this weekend's look at sharp NFL action. I have my own opinions on the games of course. Sometimes I agree with the sharps. Sometimes I'm on the other side.

[st bobby]

thanks bum as always I love this info you post!

[Kaptain]

st bobby

thanks bum as always I love this info you post!

ditto here Star Dust....always appreciate your input...you and U DOG in the trends section keep uis well informed....

THANKS to BOTH