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**StarDust Bum** · 09-05-2010, 10:20 AM

NFL Betting: Week 1 trends and angles

Will the defense be ahead of the offense during the opening week of the NFL season? Which teams traditionally get off to a quick start and which have trouble getting their engines going? Find these answers and more by reading our NFL Week 1 trends and angles. (Part 1 of 2)

Vikings at Saints

The Vikings have covered the spread during the last five regular season series meetings against the Saints, but dropped a 31-28 decision in last season's playoff matchup as four-point road favorites. Minnesota is 12-21-1 ATS as non-division road underdogs. New Orleans is 20-30-1 ATS in its last 51 home games, but 16-6-1 ATS versus non-division clubs.

Panthers at Giants

Carolina is 29-17-2 ATS in its last 48 road encounters. The Giants lost to the Panthers last season 41-9 as 8 ½-point road underdogs. Carolina is 0-6 as ‘dogs versus opponents with revenge. The ‘under' is 12-2 in Carolina's last 14 season openers. The Panthers have covered the spread in three of their last four trips to New York.

Dolphins at Bills

Buffalo has covered the spread in 12 of the last 14 series meetings against Miami. The 'over' is 7-4-1 in Miami's last 12 games as a road favorite against division rivals. The Bills defeated the Dolphins in both meetings last year by an identical 31-14 score. Both games skipped 'over' the closing total. Buffalo closed as a 3 1/2-point favorite in its lone home meeting against the Dolphins last season.

Falcons at Steelers

The ‘under' is 20-11 in the last 31 games when Atlanta was favored against AFC teams. The ‘under' is 9-2 in the last 11 games when the Falcons closed as a road favorite. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in five of its last seven season openers. The ‘under' is 9-3 in the Steelers' last 12 outings as underdogs.

Lions at Bears

The underdog is 13-7-1 in the last 21 series meetings, while the straight-up winner is 32-6-2 ATS in the last 40 meetings. The Bears are 8-11 ATS as favorites in the last 19 matchups with the Lions. The ‘over' is 18-12-1 in Detroit's last 31 games as a road underdog. The ‘over' is 8-1 in Chicago's last nine as division favorites of four points or more.

Bengals at Patriots

Cincinnati is 26-18-1 ATS in its last 45 road encounters. New England is 44-18-2 in its last 64 outings as a home favorite versus non-division opponents. The ‘over' is 8-5 in New England's last 13 home openers.

Browns at Bucs

Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 season openers. The ‘under' is 20-12 in Cleveland's last 32 games as underdogs versus non-conference foes. The ‘under' is 16-7-1 in the Browns' last 24 September outings. Tampa Bay is 35-23-3 ATS in its last 61 home games versus non-division competition. The ‘under' is 23-9 in Tampa Bay's last 32 as a home favorite.

Broncos at Jaguars

Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in its last eight September outings, but 11-8-1 in its last 20 as home favorites as 3 ½-points or less. The Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home openers and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 overall season openers. Denver suffered a 24-17 setback in its lone meeting against the Jaguars last season as a hefty 10 ½-point home favorite. The combined 41 points dipped ‘under' the 48 ½-point closing total.

Colts at Texans

Indianapolis is 15-1 SU, but just 8-8 ATS in its last 16 meetings against Houston. The Colts are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 road openers and 22-11-2 ATS in their last 35 September games. The Colts are 20-8-2 ATS as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less. Texas is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as home dogs versus division rivals. The ‘over' is 11-3 in the last 14 series meetings between the Colts and Texans.

Don't forget to check the injuries and weather report for all of pro football's opening week action.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 07:15 PM

NFL Week 1 trends to remember

Maybe it’s because of the how amped up everybody gets for the first meaningful game of the season. Either way, home field doesn’t help much for home teams catching points in Week 1 of the NFL.

Road favorites are 14-9 against the spread and 16-7 straight up since 2006. Last year the Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys all rolled in their first contest of the regular season, while the Chargers won but failed to cover against the hosting Raiders.

You’ve got to like the chances for road favorites in Week 1 again this season. There are seven teams giving points this coming week, including Super Bowl contenders Indianapolis, Dallas, San Diego and Green Bay.

Here are a few other trends to keep in mind in the opening week of the season:

What’s the magic number?

It’s a quarterback’s league and passing is the chief attacking option for today’s offenses. Still, have a running back gain 100 yards on the ground is a winning formula.

Teams with a 100-yard rusher in Week 1 last year went 5-0 SU and ATS. The trend is just as pronounced over the last three years. Teams with a back over the century mark went 6-1 ATS in Week 1 of 2008 and 6-0 ATS in 2007.

New head coach doesn’t mean new results

The Colts had a seamless transition between former head coach Tony Dungy and new sideline boss Jim Caldwell. Indy went all the way to the Super Bowl under Caldwell’s guidance.

Bettors shouldn’t buy into the new coaching blood with NFL franchises. Bad teams usually make coaching changes, not good ones like the Colts.

Teams with a new head coach are 3-9 ATS in the opening week of the last two regular seasons.

The Good the Bad and the Over/Under

Here are some random trends courtesy of matchup pages on ***********:

The Good

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games and 5-0 in their last five September games.

The Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 contests.

The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five Week 1 matchups.

The Bad

The Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 10 season openers.

The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.

The Over/Under

The Patriots have played over the total in 10 of their last 13 season openers.

The under is 6-0 in the Bears’ last six Week 1 games.

The Steelers have played over the total in seven of their last eight Week 1 contests.

The under is 9-3 in the Ravens’ last 12 Week 1 matchups.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 07:18 PM

Top 5 NFL TrendsCAR
NYG CAR are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.
CLE
TB Under is 7-0 in TB last 7 games overall.
CLE
TB CLE are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
CAR
NYG Over is 7-0 in NYG last 7 vs. NFC.
SF
SEA Under is 7-0 in SF last 7 vs. NFC West

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 07:22 PM

NFL Week 1 preparation

Week one of the regular season is finally here. In keeping with recent tradition, the season kicks off Thursday night with a made for primetime matchup featuring the combatants of last year’s NFC Championship game. Opening weekend continues with 13 games on Sunday, including nine early starts (1:00 p.m. EDT), a trio of late afternoon tilts (4:15 p.m. EDT) and the usual Sunday night contest at 8:20 EDT. The weekend will conclude with a doubleheader on Monday night, with kickoffs set for 7:00 and 10:15 p.m. EDT.
On Thursday night, the Saints and Vikings will square off in the Superdome, the site of last year’s gut-wrenching game in which the Saints prevailed in overtime 31-28. Opening weekend has been very kind to backers of defending Super Bowl champs of late. According to FoxSheets, defending Super Bowl champs have opened at home the following season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh’s field goal win over Tennessee the only point-spread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.

Another pair of NFC contenders will lock horns in week one when the Packers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. The City of Brotherly Love has not been to kind to the Packers over the last two decades. FoxSheets shows that in games played in Philadelphia in this series, Philadelphia is 5-1 against the spread versus Green Bay since 1992 and 6-0 straight up against the Packers since 1992. These games have also been low scoring, as five of six games in this series have gone UNDER the total since 1992. On the flip side, FoxSheets also point out that the Packers have been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS.

One of the more intriguing games of the opening Sunday pits the defending AFC champion Colts against the Texans in Houston. There should be no shortage of offense in this contest. In fact, FoxSheets show that 11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER the total since the Texans joined the league in 2002. The Colts have dominated the Texans straight up, but the Texans hold a slight edge ATS. Indianapolis is 15-1 straight up against Houston, while the Texans are 9-7 against the spread against the Colts, including a 5-3 mark at Reliant Stadium.

The early game on Monday night should be a low-scoring affair between two of the toughest defenses in the league, the Ravens and the Jets. The Ravens allowed just 13 PPG in the preseason, which includes allowing 27 points to the Rams in their preseason finale. The host Jets, who now have CB Darrelle Revis signed, weren’t too far behind, giving up 16.8 PPG. The Ravens have fared well against the Jets of late. A close look into the FoxSheets shows that Baltimore is 5-1 both against the spread and straight up vs. the Jets since 1997. This will be the Jets’ first regular-season game in their new palace. The Giants are also home this week, hosting the Panthers on Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 07:23 PM

Revis ends holdout, will face Ravens Monday night

Baltimore (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0), Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: New York Jets -2.5 Total: 36

As if this Monday night matchup wasn’t intriguing enough with the Jets opening a new stadium, two big-name signings have provided even more flavor to this contest. CB Darrelle Revis has ended his holdout with the Jets and signed a four-year deal worth a reported $46 million deal. Revis, who held out for 36 days of training camp, is expected to start on Monday night. The Ravens also made a move by claiming WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh off waivers to a one-year, $855,000 contract.
The addition of Revis not only improves the secondary, but now the Jets pass rush could have another second or two to get to the quarterback. Revis will likely be put into man coverage against new Ravens WR Anquan Boldin (84 rec, 1,024 yds in ‘09) who is two inches taller than the 5-foot-11 Revis.

Houshmandzadeh turns 33 in three weeks, but should still be one of Joe Flacco’s top weapons based on his 94 receptions per season since 2007. He was recently cut by Seattle.

******* take:
Over the past three years, the Ravens are 6-0 ATS in September and 11-2 ATS when holding opponents to less than 150 net passing yards; the run-heavy Jets averaged 148.8 net passing yards/game last year, and QB Mark Sanchez will be without the team's top receiver, Santonio Holmes, who will serve a four-game suspension to start the season. The Jets are 3-13 ATS in home games played in the season’s first two weeks since 1992.

Despite the hype around Revis, who some experts consider the best football player on the planet, FoxSheets still likes the Ravens in this one:

NY JETS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The average score was NY JETS 17.8, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 1*).

The addition of Revis can only help the Over/Under. FoxSheets says to go low:

Play Under - Any team against the total (NY JETS) - marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record, in conference games.(93-44 since 1983.) (67.9%, +44.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On Baltimore +2.5 and Under 36

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 08:51 PM

NFL Betting Preview: Colts seek fast start at Texans

The Indianapolis Colts look to put another terrible preseason behind them when they visit their AFC South rival Houston Texans on Sunday.

Bookmaker.com has Indianapolis as two-point road favorites with a total of 47 points.

Indianapolis just wrapped up another preseason by going 0-4 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread. The record is 3-14 SU and 5-11-1 ATS over the last four years.

The Colts are able to flip the switch, averaging 13 wins the last three regular seasons. However, they’ve struggled in their last two season-openers, losing 29-13 to Chicago as 10-point favorites and surviving 14-12 against Jacksonville as 6 ½-point ‘chalk’ last year. Both were home games.

Indy is also dealing with its crushing Super Bowl upset to New Orleans. The last losing team to make the Super Bowl the next year was the 1993 Buffalo Bills. Seven of the last nine haven’t even made the playoffs.

Quarterback Peyton Manning has had several bad playoff losses, but has always bounced back the next year. The four-time NFL MVP has a bevy of weapons with receivers Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez joining tight end Dallas Clark.

There are offensive line problems with center Jeff Saturday (knee) and left tackle Charlie Johnson (foot) and backup Tony Ugoh (toe) all questionable due to injuries. Manning is also adjusting to Clyde Christensen calling the plays after Tom Moore handled the job for so many years.

Finally, the changing of the umpire position has affected the no-huddle offense. The league is reviewing the procedure and could make more changes before Sunday’s game.

Indianapolis’ defense ranked 18th in yards allowed last year (339.2) and eighth in points (19.2). Almost all the key pieces return and safety Bob Sanders is back in the mix. It’s safe to ignore the 40 PPG the unit allowed this preseason.

Indianapolis is the 405 favorite to win the AFC and 525 to win the Super Bowl.

The Texans went 9-7 SU and 7-7-2 ATS last year. They won their final four games for the first winning season in franchise history. They’ve still never made the playoffs.

Coach Gary Kubiak is in his fifth season, showing gradual improvement with records of 6-10, 8-8, 8-8, and 9-7. That was good enough for owner Bob McNair, who signed him to a contract extension through 2012.

Quarterback Matt Schaub is back to lead the NFL’s top-rated passing attack (290.9 YPG). He has a superstar receiver in Andre Johnson and a terrific tight end in Owen Daniels, who is back from knee surgery. Matt Leinart was recently signed after being dumped by Arizona, but Dan Orlovsky is the backup for now.

The offense scored 24.3 PPG, ranked 10th in the league. Rushing was the big weakness at 30th in total yards and only 3.5 per carry. Arian Foster is the main man after a great training camp and preseason.

The defense ranked 13th in total yards last year (324.9) and 17th in points (20.8). Cornerback Dunta Robinson was lost as a free agent and replaced by rookie Kareem Jackson. Star linebacker Brian Cushing will miss the first four games with a league substance abuse suspension.

Houston is an interesting underdog pick at plus 1200 to win the AFC. It has the hardest strength of schedule, but Kubiak needs to at least make the playoffs.

Houston’s injury report looks good with running back Steve Slaton (toe) and linebacker Xavier Adibi (groin) both probable.

Indianapolis is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings against the Texans and 15-1 SU lifetime. Many recent games have been close, with the road team going 4-0 ATS. Houston led 17-0 at home last year before Indy went on a 35-3 run.

The ‘over’ is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Kickoff is at 10 a.m. (PT) on CBS. Weather is not a factor with the retractable roof of Reliant Stadium.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 08:52 PM

NFL Odds: San Fran in NFC West driver’s seat

The San Francisco 49ers keep becoming bigger and bigger favorites to win the NFC West. This is one of several changes in the updated NFL future odds.

Bookmaker.com has San Francisco as heavy 300 ‘chalk’ to win the NFC West. Arizona is next (plus 225), followed by Seattle (plus 1000) and St. Louis (plus 1600).

San Francisco’s ascension is due mostly to recent moves by its competitors. Arizona made a late change at quarterback, inserting the newly acquired Derek Anderson as the starter and releasing Matt Leinart. This is a big drop-off from the stability it had the last few years with Kurt Warner.

Seattle was busy over the weekend releasing veteran receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, running back Julius Jones and safety Jordan Babineaux. Houshmandzadeh was the only real surprise, especially with a large guaranteed salary. It looks like new coach Pete Carroll isn’t afraid to shake things up in the Pacific Northwest.

San Francisco still has its only question marks, namely quarterback Alex Smith. He couldn’t even beat out Shaun Hill at the start of last year. The former No. 1 overall pick will be mostly a game manager, relying on the running of Frank Gore and a defense that ranked fourth in the NFL last year in points allowed (17.6 PPG).

While San Francisco is the biggest division favorite in the NFC, San Diego holds that distinction in the AFC. It is 400 ‘chalk’ with Kansas City, Denver and Oakland all at least plus 600. Receiver Vincent Jackson and left tackle Marcus McNeill are still holding out, but there doesn’t appear to be a division team ready to challenge.

Indianapolis favored in AFC odds

The Indianapolis Colts appear ready to shake off their Super Bowl defeat against New Orleans and make another title run. Peyton Manning and company are 400 favorites to win the AFC (525 favorites for the Super Bowl).

San Diego is next in conference odds at plus 445. Baltimore (plus 545) looks strong thanks to an improved passing attack with receiver Anquan Boldin and reportedly Houshmandzadeh as well. It also helps that rival Pittsburgh (plus 900) has a serious problem.

Ben Roethlisberger got his suspension reduced to six games, but the Steelers could start 35-year-old Charlie Batch with Byron Leftwich (knee) now injured. Batch hasn’t thrown more than 53 passes in a year since 2001. The schedule is also tough with Atlanta, Tennessee and Baltimore among the first four games.

New England and the New York Jets are both plus 600. The Jets just signed holdout cornerback Darrelle Revis and he’ll be ready for the Monday night opener against Baltimore.

New England has been hit hard with injuries on defense (Leigh Bodden, Ty Warren) and will be very young there. Holdout offensive guard Logan Mankins is not close to reaching an agreement.

NFC Odds crowded at the top

The New Orleans Saints are still the slight 375 favorite to win the NFC. However, history is against them as no NFC team has made back-to-back Super Bowls since the 1996-97 Green Bay Packers

The Packers are an up-and-coming team this year. The offense has looked tremendous with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They’re now the second favorite (plus 390) to win the conference, moving ahead of Dallas (plus 400). The Cowboys’ starting offense really struggled in the preseason with Tony Romo.

Minnesota is the final team of the ‘Big 4’ at plus 455. Brett Favre lost his leading receiver in Sidney Rice (hip) for at least six games. However, Favre didn’t come out of his latest retirement just to handoff to Adrian Peterson all game. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian must step up to make these odds worthwhile.

San Francisco (plus 775) is next with its expected breeze through the NFC West. Atlanta (plus 1000) hopes to become the latest underdog to emerge from the NFC. The Giants, Cardinals and Saints proved over the last three years that anything can happen in this conference.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-07-2010, 08:53 PM

NFL Odds: Vikings and Saints open 2010

Thursday night’s NFC Championship Game ‘rematch’ between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome has all the earmarks of a blood bath.

The Vikings believe they, not the Saints, should have won Super Bowl XLIV. They are convinced they gave away the game. What Minnesota fans and stat sheet disciples are forgetting is that New Orleans won the NFC last season.

Between the Saints’ style of play and the Vikings seeking revenge, Thursday’s matchup promises plenty of pop.

If you recall, New Orleans put a beating on Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre, collecting two personal fouls in the process. However, Favre was able to find enough holes in the New Orleans defense to complete 28 of 46 passes for 310 yards with a touchdown and the Vikings generated 475 yards in total offense.

Buried beneath the five turnovers and three lost fumbles and the 31-28 overtime loss was a dominant running game that churned out 165 yards, a 4.1 average and three touchdowns.

Stopping the run was a problem for the Saints last season. They ranked 21st giving up 122.2 yards per game, but made up for it by finishing second in the NFL in takeaways. They also led the league in defensive touchdowns by a wide margin.

The results were thrilling and effective, but may not be sustainable. Despite the return of nearly every significant player or coach, New Orleans is very unlikely to return to the Super Bowl. Reduce the turnover totals, and the Saints defense suddenly becomes mediocre.

New Orleans is counting on coach Sean Payton to once again baffle opponents with misdirection, subterfuge and a thousand different formations. His gambits will probably work, but not as well as last year.

The Saints’ defense that lines up Thursday will have new starters at free safety, left end and at one outside linebacker position.

Not surprisingly, the Vikings decided to bring everybody back for another shot, but assuming that the previous year’s performance guarantees future performance in the NFL is obviously foolhardy.

Half of Minnesota’s offensive starters missed substantial practice time, from Favre to tailback Adrian Peterson to receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin to center John Sullivan.

Rice won’t return until midseason following hip surgery and Harvin’s recurring migraines make him a question mark on a daily basis. That leaves the Vikings with one established big play receiver (Bernard Berrian) and two possession receivers (Greg Lewis and Greg Camarillo).

It’s probably safe to assume Favre will lean heavily on tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and will also use Peterson out of the backfield as much as possible.

Most offshore books opened New Orleans as 4 ½-point NFL spread favorites, with the ‘total’ set at 51 ½.

Home favorites of 3 ½ to 6 ½ points are 18-28 ATS during the first week of the season since 1999 and failed to cash six of eight last year.

Both teams have been proficient off the hop. Minnesota has ‘covered’ six of eight during Week 1 and the Saints have cashed five straight in September and four of five season openers.

However, the Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen chances versus conference competition, while New Orleans has flunked six of its last eight conference tests ATS. The Saints have also dropped five of their last seven spread decisions in the Big Easy.

Minnesota has ‘covered’ in its last five meetings with New Orleans, including four straight on the road.

The Vikings finished last season on a 3-7 ‘under’ run. Conversely, New Orleans has topped the ‘total’ at a 16-6-1 clip at the Superdome. The Saints have ducked ‘under’ in eight of their last 11 openers.

Home favorites of 3 ½ to 6 ½ points have strayed ‘under’ in 16 of 21 season lidlifters since 2005.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-08-2010, 05:49 PM

NFL Week 1 Marquee Matchups

Week one of the regular season is finally here. In keeping with recent tradition, the season kicks off Thursday night with a made for primetime matchup featuring the combatants of last year’s NFC Championship game. Opening weekend continues with 13 games on Sunday, including nine early starts (1:00 p.m. EDT), a trio of late afternoon tilts (4:15 p.m. EDT) and the usual Sunday night contest at 8:20 EDT. The weekend will conclude with a doubleheader on Monday night, with kickoffs set for 7:00 and 10:15 p.m. EDT.
On Thursday night, the Saints and Vikings will square off in the Superdome, the site of last year’s gut-wrenching game in which the Saints prevailed in overtime 31-28. Opening weekend has been very kind to backers of defending Super Bowl champs of late. According to FoxSheets, defending Super Bowl champs have opened at home the following season the last six years. In those games, that host is 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS, with Pittsburgh’s field goal win over Tennessee the only point-spread blemish. The last three games have gone UNDER the total.

Another pair of NFC contenders will lock horns in week one when the Packers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. The City of Brotherly Love has not been to kind to the Packers over the last two decades. FoxSheets shows that in games played in Philadelphia in this series, Philadelphia is 5-1 against the spread versus Green Bay since 1992 and 6-0 straight up against the Packers since 1992. These games have also been low scoring, as five of six games in this series have gone UNDER the total since 1992. On the flip side, FoxSheets also point out that the Packers have been very good on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 22-10 ATS.

One of the more intriguing games of the opening Sunday pits the defending AFC champion Colts against the Texans in Houston. There should be no shortage of offense in this contest. In fact, FoxSheets show that 11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER the total since the Texans joined the league in 2002. The Colts have dominated the Texans straight up, but the Texans hold a slight edge ATS. Indianapolis is 15-1 straight up against Houston, while the Texans are 9-7 against the spread against the Colts, including a 5-3 mark at Reliant Stadium.

The early game on Monday night should be a low-scoring affair between two of the toughest defenses in the league, the Ravens and the Jets. The Ravens allowed just 13 PPG in the preseason, which includes allowing 27 points to the Rams in their preseason finale. The host Jets, who now have CB Darrelle Revis signed, weren’t too far behind, giving up 16.8 PPG. The Ravens have fared well against the Jets of late. A close look into the FoxSheets shows that Baltimore is 5-1 both against the spread and straight up vs. the Jets since 1997. This will be the Jets’ first regular-season game in their new palace. The Giants are also home this week, hosting the Panthers on Sunday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-08-2010, 05:50 PM

Strong handicapping trend for divisional showdowns

Two of our the most powerful FoxSheets trends heading into Week 1 of the NFL season are as follows:
1) Divisional favorites of 3 points or less are 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS (82%) in Week 1 since 2000.

2) Favorites of exactly 3 points are 29-10 SU & 21-12-5 ATS (64%) in Week 1 since 2000.

Four Week 1 divisional matchups are hovering right around that magic number of three, give or take half a point, and the road team is favored in all of them. Here's a breakdown of each of the four:

Indianapolis at Houston
Houston has their sights set on their first ever playoff berth as the Colts remain heavy favorites to win the AFC South. The Texans can score in bunches, and they come off a season in which they lead the NFL in passing. They’ve lost six straight to Indianapolis, but five of those games were within eight points. The Colts, a perennial playoff team, went 7-1 ATS & 7-1 SU on the road in the 2009 regular season; that one loss was a meaningless Week 17 game in which Peyton Manning was pulled in the second quarter. Play on: Indianapolis -2.5

Miami at Buffalo
Miami acquired Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall to improve a pass offense that ranked 23rd in yards per attempt last season. The Phins are a 3-point road favorite, having gone 10-2 ATS on the road against conference foes over the last two years. Buffalo hopes that new head coach Chan Gailey can breathe life into a dismal passing game that ranked 30th in the NFL last season. The Bills are actually 5-2 ATS & 5-2 SU over the past two Septembers, losing only at New England and against New Orleans in that span. Play on: Miami -3

Dallas at WashingtonMike Shanahan will try to resurrect the Redskins after a 4-12 season in which they went 0-6 in divisional games. The Cowboys finally got over the playoff drought that had stricken the franchise for 15 years, beating Philly in a wildcard game last January—the proverbial monkey may be off Tony Romo’s back. These teams don’t like one another, and whether McNabb is healthy enough to start will obviously have a big impact on how this one plays out. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS run in this head-to-head series. Play on: Dallas -3.5

San Francisco at SeattleSan Francisco is the favorite to win the NFC West, coming off an 8-8 season with six losses by a touchdown or less. The Niners were among the league leaders defensively in several key categories last season and are 14-7-4 ATS under Mike Singletary. Off a 5-11 season, new head coach Pete Carroll has overhauled Seattle’s roster. The Seahawks hope QB Matt Hasselbeck can recover from back-to-back dismal seasons while question marks linger throughout an offense full of backup-caliber talent.Play on: San Francisco -3

**StarDust Bum** · 09-08-2010, 05:52 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Indians at Angels – The Indians are 0-9 since May 13, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Mariners at Athletics – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 15, 2010 as a 170+ dog when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Athletics are 9-0 since April 25, 2010 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $955.

Rangers at Blue Jays – The Rangers are 0-7 since August 03, 2010 on the road when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $970 when playing against.

Cardinals at Brewers – The Cardinals are 0-4 since August 24, 2010 as a road favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $605 when playing against.

Astros at Cubs – The Cubs are 7-0 since May 12, 2010 as a home favorite after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $700

Giants at Diamondbacks – The Giants are 10-0 since July 19, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1040

Mets at Nationals – The Mets are 0-12 since June 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1390 when playing against.

Dodgers at Padres – The Dodgers are 0-8 since April 28, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $850 when playing against.

Marlins at Phillies – The Phillies are 6-0 since July 10, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $660

Braves at Pirates – The Braves are 11-0 since May 08, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1176.

Rays at Red Sox – The Rays are 7-0 since April 14, 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $700

Reds at Rockies – The Rockies are 10-0 since April 24, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings for a net profit of $1020

White Sox at Tigers – The Tigers are 0-7 since May 03, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Royals at Twins – The Twins are 15-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1500.

Orioles at Yankees – The Orioles are 6-0 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $1000. The Yankees are 10-0 since June 06, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1050.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-09-2010, 06:36 PM

NFL Opening Night:

Thursday, September 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -4.5 500 *****
New Orleans - Over 48.5 500 *****

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 03:49 PM

Running backs in question for Denver-Jacksonville

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DENVER BRONCOS
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3)

As the Broncos and Jaguars begin the 2010 season, questions linger about the health of both starting running backs. Knowshon Moreno has been battling a hamstring injury and Maurice Jones-Drew may or may not be dealing with knee problems.
Moreno practiced Thursday and is expected to play against Jacksonville, though he likely will not be 100 percent. His backup is veteran Correll Buckhalter who posted career highs in rushing yards (642) and yards per carry (5.4) in his first season with Denver last year. Rookie Demaryius Thomas also appears ready to go despite a foot injury. The speedy wideout provides a deep threat for QB Kyle Orton.

Reports have swirled that Jones-Drew (1,765 yds from scrimmage, 16 TD in 2009) is still not fully recovered from knee surgery. Jones-Drew insists that he never had surgery and his knee feels fine. He attributes his lack of preseason work (six carries, minus-2 yards) to his coach wanting to keep him fresh for the regular season.

But even with a healthy MJD, this FoxSheets trend works heavily against the Jaguars.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-10-2010, 03:49 PM

Beanie Wells unlikely to play Sunday

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ARIZONA CARDINALS (-4)
ST. LOUIS RAMS

As we approach the weekend, it appears that Arizona RB Beanie Wells will not play in Sunday’s opener at St. Louis. Wells injured his knee in the final preseason game and head coach Ken Whisenhunt will likely play it safe for his top rusher, who gained 793 yards on the ground as a rookie. Tim Hightower will receive the majority of snaps, but 2nd-year pro LaRod Stephens-Howling will also get a few carries.
Another reason coach Whiz doesn’t need to rush Wells back into the lineup is Hightower’s success against the Rams. Both of Hightower’s career 100-yard rushing games have come at St. Louis. After a 22-carry, 109-yard game in 2008, Hightower rushed for a career-high 110 yards on 14 carries last season at Edward Jones Dome. Hightower had a solid 2009 season, rushing for 598 yards (4.2 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He also caught 63 passes for 428 yards, but was turnover-prone, losing four fumbles on the season.

Hightower’s success will take a lot of pressure off QB Derek Anderson making his first start in an Arizona uniform. Success and St. Louis have not been synonymous recently, especially when facing NFC West foes.

FoxSheets shows that ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 11.2, OPPONENT 29.2 - (Rating = 1*).

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