Announcement

**Udog** · 09-05-2010, 11:05 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Minnesota at New Orleans
The Vikings look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Minnesota is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 451-452: Minnesota at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 138.490; New Orleans 141.525
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5; 49
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Under

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Game 453-454: Carolina at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.175; NY Giants 140.992
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 455-456: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.289; Buffalo 129.424
Dunkel Line: Miami by 4; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 457-458: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.542; Pittsburgh 134.599
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Detroit at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 121.216; Chicago 125.924
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6; 43
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6); Over

Game 461-462: Cincinnati at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.617; New England 135.086
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 45
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+5); Under

Game 463-464: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.633; Tampa Bay 132.939
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 465-466: Denver at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 128.791; Jacksonville 129.394
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Indianapolis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 138.919; Houston 134.723
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 469-470: Oakland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 127.644; Tennessee 131.665
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+6 1/2); Over

Game 471-472: Green Bay at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 139.594; Philadelphia 135.400
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 4; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-2 1/2); Under

Game 473-474: San Francisco at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.959; Seattle 119.922
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 12; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-2 1/2); Over

Game 475-476: Arizona at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.378; St. Louis 120.986
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Over

Game 477-478: Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 138.696; Washington 136.614
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 39
Vegas Line: Dallas by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Under

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

Game 479-480: Baltimore at NY Jets (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 140.223; NY Jets 140.258
Dunkel Line: Even; 34
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+2 1/2); Under

Game 481-482: San Diego at Kansas City (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 141.253; Kansas City 123.869
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 17 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego by 5; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-5); Over

**Udog** · 09-05-2010, 11:07 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 9

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MINNESOTA (13 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (16 - 3) - 9/9/2010, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 12

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CAROLINA (8 - 8) at NY GIANTS (8 - 8) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 80-53 ATS (+21.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (7 - 9) at BUFFALO (6 - 10) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (9 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 7) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 14) at CHICAGO (7 - 9) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (10 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 7) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 94-125 ATS (-43.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (5 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 13) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (8 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (7 - 9) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (16 - 3) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (5 - 11) at TENNESSEE (8 - 8) - 9/12/2010, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (11 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (11 - 6) - 9/12/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 136-94 ATS (+32.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 8) at SEATTLE (5 - 11) - 9/12/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (11 - 7) at ST LOUIS (1 - 15) - 9/12/2010, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 105-139 ATS (-47.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-139 ATS (-47.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 76-108 ATS (-42.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (12 - 6) at WASHINGTON (4 - 12) - 9/12/2010, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 51-74 ATS (-30.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 13

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BALTIMORE (10 - 8) at NY JETS (11 - 8) - 9/13/2010, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (13 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 12) - 9/13/2010, 10:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-05-2010, 11:08 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, 9/9/2010

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 57-37 Over as road underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 37-58 ATS as home favorite

Sunday, 9/12/2010

CAROLINA at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 80-53 ATS as an underdog
NY GIANTS: 10-2 Over vs. conference

MIAMI at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 10-2 ATS Away vs. conference
BUFFALO: 69-41 Under if the line is +3 to -3

ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 15-5 Under as a road favorite of 3 points or less
PITTSBURGH: 1-8 ATS if the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

DETROIT at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
CHICAGO: 55-36 Over as home favorite

CINCINNATI at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 24-44 ATS 1st month of season
NEW ENGLAND: 0-3 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati

CLEVELAND at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 8-0 Under vs. NFC South
TAMPA BAY: 27-8 Under 1st 2 weeks of season

DENVER at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 168-128 Over in all games
JACKSONVILLE: 0-10 ATS as home favorite

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 ATS as road favorite
HOUSTON: 17-7 Over vs. division

OAKLAND at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 4-0 Under as road dog of 7 pts or less
TENNESSEE: 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 1-5 ATS at Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA: 28-13 ATS vs. NFC North

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 Under vs. division
SEATTLE: 1-8 ATS as an underdog

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 6-0 Under Away vs. division
ST LOUIS: 2-10 ATS vs. division

DALLAS at WASHINGTON, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 15-6 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
WASHINGTON: 9-22 ATS in September home games

Monday, 9/13/2010

BALTIMORE at NY JETS, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS in September
NY JETS: 3-13 ATS at home 1st 2 wks of season

SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY, 10:15 PM ET ESPN
SAN DIEGO: 5-1 Over in September
KANSAS CITY: 23-7 Under in September home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 09-05-2010, 11:09 AM

NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 9

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Sunday, September 12

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. JACKSONVILLE
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games at home
Buffalo is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Carolina
NY Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PITTSBURGH
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games
Arizona is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Arizona

4:15 PM
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing San Francisco

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 15 games at home

Monday, September 13

7:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY JETS
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games

10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
San Diego is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Kansas City's last 22 games at home
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

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**Udog** · 09-06-2010, 11:11 PM

NFL Week 1 trends to remember

Maybe it’s because of the how amped up everybody gets for the first meaningful game of the season. Either way, home field doesn’t help much for home teams catching points in Week 1 of the NFL.

Road favorites are 14-9 against the spread and 16-7 straight up since 2006. Last year the Eagles, Vikings and Cowboys all rolled in their first contest of the regular season, while the Chargers won but failed to cover against the hosting Raiders.

You’ve got to like the chances for road favorites in Week 1 again this season. There are seven teams giving points this coming week, including Super Bowl contenders Indianapolis, Dallas, San Diego and Green Bay.

Here are a few other trends to keep in mind in the opening week of the season:

What’s the magic number?

It’s a quarterback’s league and passing is the chief attacking option for today’s offenses. Still, have a running back gain 100 yards on the ground is a winning formula.

Teams with a 100-yard rusher in Week 1 last year went 5-0 SU and ATS. The trend is just as pronounced over the last three years. Teams with a back over the century mark went 6-1 ATS in Week 1 of 2008 and 6-0 ATS in 2007.

New head coach doesn’t mean new results

The Colts had a seamless transition between former head coach Tony Dungy and new sideline boss Jim Caldwell. Indy went all the way to the Super Bowl under Caldwell’s guidance.

Bettors shouldn’t buy into the new coaching blood with NFL franchises. Bad teams usually make coaching changes, not good ones like the Colts.

Teams with a new head coach are 3-9 ATS in the opening week of the last two regular seasons.

The Good the Bad and the Over/Under

Here are some random trends courtesy of matchup pages on ***********:

The Good

The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games and 5-0 in their last five September games.

The Jaguars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 contests.

The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five Week 1 matchups.

The Bad

The Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 10 season openers.

The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Rams are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games.

The Over/Under

The Patriots have played over the total in 10 of their last 13 season openers.

The under is 6-0 in the Bears’ last six Week 1 games.

The Steelers have played over the total in seven of their last eight Week 1 contests.

The under is 9-3 in the Ravens’ last 12 Week 1 matchups.

**Udog** · 09-09-2010, 07:28 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 9

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What bettors need to know
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Thursday, September 9

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5, 48.5)

WHAT'S AT STAKE

Well, taking into account both the Saints and the Vikings didn't lose much in terms of personnel this offseason, and considering they were the top two teams in the NFC last season, see this matchup as an early statement for conference supremacy in 2010.

VIKINGS’ STRATEGY

Despite losing last year’s NFC Championship game, Minnesota feels confident about attacking with a similar game plan. All-Pro tailback Adrian Peterson carved the Saints’ interior defense, gaining 122 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 25 carries.

Turnovers cost the Vikes a game they otherwise should have won. Minny won the time of possession battle by a large margin and the NFC North champs look to use the same strategy.

"In a perfect world, you would chew the clock a great deal and keep an explosive offense off the field," Vikings coach Brad Childress told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

"Absolutely,” Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell told reporters. “I think that we need to try to get Adrian the ball as much as we can.”

DEFENDING THEIR TURF

The Saints practiced at the Superdome on Tuesday for a tune-up and to check out the stadium’s turf. The home side has the benefit of altering how fast or slow the artificial surface plays.

Head coach Sean Payton was open when talking to the New Orleans Times-Picayune about the subject.

"We play with it and how firm we want it to be ... we can change that,” Payton told reporter Jim Varney.

SECONDARY A PRIMARY ISSUE

Minnesota’s defensive secondary has been an issue for several seasons now. The weakness is often exploited by teams who give up running the ball against the Vikings’ stout interior defensive linemen.

That spot looks even softer entering this season. The Purple People Eaters will probably enter Thursday’s game with just three cornerbacks. Cedric Griffin, who’s just eight months removed from major knee surgery, might be rushed into an emergency start because of injury to rookie corner Chris Cook.

Team blog VikingAge.com also reports that Childress is leaning toward starting Husain Abdullah beside Madieu Williams at safety.

The report says Jamarca Sanford and Tyrell Johnson will be the leading contenders for the starting spot and took the majority of first-string snaps during the preseason.

From what we understand, Childress prefers Adbullah because he’s better in pass coverage than Sanford and Johnson.

PRESEASON BUZZ

The Saints made the most of their exhibition slate, scoring more than 20 points in each of their four games. They also topped 30 points twice. The Vikings, who opened without Favre and gave him limited time when he did return, reached 20 in three of the four games.

LINE MOVEMENT

Money has been pretty even on both sides, which is understandable. Both are public teams, and both are coming off tremendous seasons. The Saints opened as 4-point favorites, and can be found around -5.5 now. The total, however, has dipped down, moving from a 54 open to 48.5 this week.

THE LINE TRENDS

The Vikings open loud and proud. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight openers.

The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in conference.

The Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.

The Saints love September, too. Home, road, day, night, it makes no difference. In their last five September games, New Orleans is 5-0 ATS.

And with the September success comes Opening Week success. The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five openers.

THE TOTAL TRENDS

The Saints are 5-1-1 over in their last seven September games.

Saints home games have gone over in 16 of the last 23 at home, with one push in there.

In the Vikings' last 10 games, seven have gone under.

INJURY REPORT

Both teams are fairly healthy going into this tilt. For the Vikings, linebacker EJ Henderson and Favre, of course, are probable, while receiver Sidney Rice is out.
For the Saints, linebacker Jonathan Vilma and receiver Marques Colston are probable while safety Darren Sharper is out. Fairly close to fully staffed on both sides.

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**Udog** · 09-09-2010, 07:29 AM

NFL
Write-Up

NFL Week 1 analysis

Vikings @ Saints—Minnesota lost NFC title game to Saints here in OT 7+ months ago; Favre won his first road start the last four years, scoring 37 ppg; Vikings are 5-2 vs spread last seven times they opened season road. Saints are 9-3 in last 12 home openers, 5-2 vs spread last seven times they were favored in home opener- they lost this Thursday opener at Indy three years ago, so have experience dealing with hoopla. Saints are 8-5 as home favorite last two years, 6-2 in non-divisional games. Vikings are 7-10-2 a dog last three years.

Panthers @ Giants—Opener of $1.6B palace funded by PSL holders. Carolina crushed Big Blue 41-9 across parking lot in playoffs LY, their third win in last four visits to Swamp; Carolina is very inexperienced at QB, but is also 7-3 vs spread in last ten road openers. Giants are 15-7 in last 22 home openers, 8-4 vs spread as favorite in home opener. Under is 10-3 in Carolina’s last 13 road openers, 7-3 in Giants’ last ten home openers. Since ’06, Carolina is 11-15-1 as single digit dog. Giants are 14-19-1 as non-divisional home fave, since ’02.

Dolphins @ Bills—Miami beat Bills in Toronto in ’08, but lost last five games played here, scoring just 11.6 ppg; Fish lost last six road openers (0-4-1 vs spread last five), scoring 11.2 ppg. Buffalo covered four of last five home openers, winning last two, 34-10/33-20. Over last 10 years, Bills are 5-10-1 as home dog in divisional games; they’re 1-4-1 as home dog overall the last two years. Miami is 3-7 as fave of 3 or less points since ’04. Under is 6-2 in last eight Miami road openers, 9-3 in last dozen Buffalo openers, but four of last five series totals were 41+.

Falcons @ Steelers— Pitt is home dog for first time since ’04. No Big Ben for Steeler squad that won last seven home openers; Leftwich (knee) is out, so still not sure whether Dixon/Batch gets nod at QB vs Atlanta squad that is 0-5-1 in last six visits here, but is 10-2 vs spread in last 12 season openers. Since 2005, Atlanta is 14-6 vs spread when playing an AFC team- the last three years, they’re 7-1-1 as favorite of 3 or less points. Falcons were outscored 74-22 in losing last three road openers; their last six road openers stayed under total, while seven of last nine Steeler openers went over.

Lions @ Bears—Interesting to see if Cutler/Martz combo makes Bears more explosive. Chicago won eight of last ten series games, winning last four (three by 14+ points); Lions lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 24+ points. Detroit lost four of last five road openers, allowing 34.4 ppg, with three losses by 13+ points. Bears are 1-5 vs spread last six times they opened season as home favorite (this is first time since ’04). Lions are 9-24 as single digit dog the last five years. Last six Chicago openers stayed under total; Lions last five road openers went over.

Bengals @ Patriots— Belichick won last eight home openers (1-3 vs spread last four); he’s won six of last seven against Bengals, taking last three by average of 17 points. Cincy lost last four visits here, by 6-5-3-7 points; their last win here was in ’86. Pats are 40-18-4 as single digit favorite since ’03, 10-5 as non-divisional home fave last three years. Bengals added Owens and rookie TE Gresham to QB Palmer weapons to make offense more diverse. Since ’06, Bengals are 13-9 as road dog. Seven of last eight Patriot totals went over; Bengals last six road openers stayed under.

Browns @ Bucs—Cleveland is opening on road for first time since Modell skipped town; they lost last five season openers, with four losses by 14+ points- they covered one of last eight as Week 1 underdog. Tampa Bay won both series meetings, 22-7 on Lake Erie in ’06, 17-3 here in ’02; Bucs lost last four season openers- 13 of their last 18 home openers stayed under total. Browns Hard to imagine any Bucs team finishing 32nd in NFL in rush defense, but Tampa did it LY. Under is 7-3 in Browns’ last ten openers, 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven home openers.

Broncos @ Jaguars—Broncos are opening on road sixth year in row, winning last three years, by 1-27-5 points. Home side lost last three series games, with Jags winning four of last five, but Jax scored just 10-10-12 points in losing last three home openers. Five of last six Jaguar openers stayed under total, as have six of last eight Denver road openers, with Broncos scoring 15 or less points in five of last six. Denver stumbled to 8-8 finish after 6-0 start LY; looking to see what role (Wildcat?) rookie Tebow plays with Bronco offense.

Colts @ Texans—Have to see if new placement of umpire behind QB hurts pace of Colts’ no-huddle offense. Indy is 15-1 in series, winning last six, with four of six wins by 6 or less points; Colts are 7-1 here, winning last three visits by 6-4-8 points. Texans are 1-7 in last eight season openers- they’re 1-6 in last seven home openers, with five of six losses by 7+ points. Colts are 9-2 SU in last 11 openers, 6-1 in last seven on road. Average total in last ten series games, 45.2, but under is 4-1 in both Colts’ last five road openers, Texans last five home openers.

Raiders @ Tennessee—Campbell will give Oakland its best QB play since Rich Gannon. Home side won 11 of last 13 series games; Oakland is 1-4 in last five visits here, with all four losses by 7 or less points. Raiders are 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road openers, but four of their last five Week 1 losses are by 10+ points. Since 2003, Oakland is just 22-40-1 vs spread as single digit dog (7-12 last two years). Titans are 8-5 as home favorite last two years; they’re 2-4 in last six home openers, 2-6 vs spread last eight times they were favored in home opener.

Packers @ Eagles—Home team won 10 of last 11 series games; Pack is 0-9 here since 49-0 win in ’62 that avenged loss in ’60 title game. This is only third time since ’88 Pack opened season on road; they’re 12-5 in last 17 openers, winning last three by 3-5-6 points. Green Bay’s last four road openers went over total (Pack scored average of 37.5 ppg). Kolb starts at QB for Eagles, who are 3-1 in last four openers (all wins by 14+ points). Philly is 3-5 as home dog since ’04, 1-3 as dog of 3 or less points last two years. Packers are 8-3 as road favorites last three years.

49ers @ Seahawks—Seahawks’ OL coach Gibbs quit Saturday; you wonder whats going on behind closed doors in Seattle, where some veteran players were cut. 49ers are 2-5 in last seven visits here, but won first meeting with Seattle in three of last four years; three of their last four losses here were by 24+ points. Niners won last three road openers by combined total of 8 points, all vs division foes. 49ers are 2-6-1 as road favorite since 2002, 5-7-2 as fave of 3 or less points. Seattle is 2-6-1 in last nine as home underdog. Under is 8-1 in Seattle’s last nine home openers.

Cardinals @ Rams— Anderson new Redbird QB; will top target Fitzgerald play? Boldin is gone, Arizona will struggle on offense vs very young Ram team with rookie QB making first start. Cardinals won last seven series games, with six wins by 8+ points, holding Rams to 11.5 ppg in last four meetings. Arizona also won last five visits here; they’re 4-7 as a road favorite since ’01. St Louis is 7-14 as home dog last three years, 10-22 as single digit dog, but for first time since Warner left town, they have a QB who can take pressure off star RB Jackson.

Cowboys @ Redskins—First game for Shanahan as coach, McNabb as QB for Redskins, whose last seven home openers were all decided by 6 or less points. In Weeks 1-2 last three years, Cowboys averaged 36 ppg; they’re 11-2 in last 13 road openers, 4-1 in last five. Six of their last seven season openers went over total, but six of Redskins’ last seven home openers stayed under. Dallas is 8-4 in last 12 visits here, winning last two 14-10/17-0; Cowboys won last three in series by 4-1-17 points, with average total just 18.0. Washington is 3-5 as home dog last two years.

Ravens @ Jets—Baltimore won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points; Coach Ryan faces his old team as Jets play first game in new stadium- this is first time since ’04 Jets opened season at home (5-13 in last 18 home openers). Baltimore won three of last four road openers, but is 2-9 in first road game last 11 years. Ravens are 11-6-1 as dog of 3 or less points since ’06. Jets are 6-11-1 vs spread as home favorite last three years. Under is 9-3 in Ravens’ last dozen openers, 4-1 in Jets’ last five. Not sure if Revis will be in top shape after protracted holdout; will Baltimore attack him?

Chargers @ Chiefs-- San Diego started 2-3 four of last five years, so they're never solid choice this early in year (3-4 in last seven openers), but they won five in row in this series, crushing KC 37-7/43-14 in LY's meetings. Bolts won last three visits here, by 24-10/22-21/37-7 scores. Chiefs lost its opener four years in row, scoring 7.8 ppg; they're 3-7 in last ten home openers. Under is 16-1-2 in KC's last 19 home openers, with last eight staying under. Chargers are 9-4 as road favorite in divisional games since 2004. Chiefs are 13-25-1 as a single digit underdog since '05, but 7-3-1 in last 11 as divisional home dog.

**Udog** · 09-11-2010, 09:37 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 12

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NFL total bias: Week 1 over/under picks
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I notice a change in myself as the NFL preseason winds down to a merciful end and Week 1 comes calling. All of a sudden, the most meaningless, everyday tasks take on newfound and intense importance.

A visit to the grocery store becomes an over/under battle between me and the cash register. I curse the missus for no-looking some sort of ridiculous hair product into the cart while I was checking out the frozen pizza sales, putting me 10 clams over the $120-total I had in my head.

At the gas pump I become unreasonably angry at squeezing out a $30.01. I have buck bets on everything from the number of times my waitress says “um” during a nice meal on the town to the over/under on the longest wedding speech you’re forced to endure on the hottest August day in recent memory.

For me, this sort of stuff is my preseason. It’s a mindset thing and you have to get yourself prepared one way or another. Of course, I subjected myself to as many first halves of as many preseason games as I could possibly stomach, but that can just be some awful stuff to endure. Sure it’s football, but just barely, what with the vanilla offenses and blown coverage and missed assignments. You can only take so much of it.

That’s why it’s important to remember that these problems don’t magically disappear for teams once Week 1 hits. Offenses are normally a few steps behind defenses at this time of year, but totals at your sportsbook probably don’t reflect that much.

Your everyday Joe Sportsbettor loves him some overs so he can keep cheering and guzzling Buds deep into the fourth quarter. So, most books have no choice but to bump up their totals a bit. Of course, it all depends on the individual matchups on the board and luckily for us, we have a pile of big games on the Week 1 schedule.

Each week I’ll roll out three over/under picks. Do with them what you will – fawn over them or fade them. We’re all in this together, kids. Let’s make the most of it.

Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (-2.5, 35.5)

These aren’t your little brother’s Baltimore Ravens, friends. Yes, most of the names on the jerseys are still the same, but it has been a long time since they scared the bejeasus out of opposing offenses like they once did.

Don’t get me wrong, they’ll still have a strong defense, but they’re at least a few steps slower than they once were and without Ed Reed patrolling the secondary for at least the first six weeks, that’ll be even more obvious.

The New York defense should be as good as advertised – at some point this year. I’m just not sure we’ll see it right out of the gate. This total just looks too low for a Week 1 affair.

Pick: Over

Indianapolis at Houston (+2, 47)

Is this the year the Houston Texans finally solve the Colts? I’m not sure. They do look like they have a shot, but then again, I’ve been saying the same thing about the Texans for the last four years. One thing is for certain: Houston will come out firing against the Colts.

At this point, we know what we’re going to get from Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub – explosions. If running back Arian Foster is as good as he looks so far, the Texans are going to be even more dangerous this season.

Peyton and the Colts have a lot to prove this season too and I’d hate to be the team that they take out last season’s playoff frustrations on. Expect to see a lot of this matchup on the Red Zone channel on Sunday.

Pick: Over

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7, 41)

About all you need to know about New York’s preseason is Brandon Jacobs is really, really unhappy about sitting behind Ahmad Bradshaw on the running back depth chart and Eli Manning nearly had his skull taken off thanks to his matador offensive line. The Giants have offensive weapons, though I’m not sure they’re ready to make the most of them just yet.

A Week 1 matchup against the Panthers won’t do anything to help them out, either. Carolina’s defense lost six players since last season, including Julius Peppers, and will go through some rough spots with a young team. But they are what they are - a team that relies on the run and tough defense to keep them close.

Pick: Under

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**Udog** · 09-11-2010, 10:51 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 12

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What bettors need to know: Cowboys at Redskins
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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 40)

What a way to open the 2010 NFL season. Another installment of arguably the best rivalry in football will take place when the Cowboys travel to FedEx Field for a date with the Redskins.

Dallas is coming off a season in which it won the NFC East at 11-5 and finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1996. Washington struggled to a 4-12 record - its worst since a 3-13 campaign in 1994 - and missed out of the postseason for a second consecutive year.

Line movement

The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point favorites at most betting sites during the offseason. The spread briefly peaked at 4.5 earlier this week, but it is once again at 3.5. The total opened at 43 and has been on a steady decline to 40 ever since.

Injury report

Neither team is beginning the season in terrible shape, but the Cowboys are dealing with some issues. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen. Right tackle Marc Colombo and left guard Kyle Kosier are both out with knee injuries. Wide receiver Dez Bryant and defensive end Marcus Spears are listed as probable with knee injuries and will play.

The Redskins are looking good. Donovan McNabb was downgraded from probable to questionable with an ankle injury, but he announced that he will be ready to go. An illness had defensive end Andre Carter questionable earlier in the week, but he said that he is fine Friday.

Weather or not

There is a 50 percent chance of rain in Landover, MD Sunday. Although, any potential showers are expected to move through by late afternoon.

Prior engagements

Dallas won both of the meetings between the two rivals last year. The Cowboys prevailed 7-6 at home on November 22, but did not come close to covering the 11-point spread. As 7-point road favorites on December 27, the Cowboys blanked Washington 17-0.

The Redskins were held to fewer than 100 yards rushing in each of the 2009 contests - 78 in the first game and a mere 43 in the second. They were limited to just 165 total yards in the second game after mustering only 246 in the first.

Three-FORE!

To say the Cowboys and Redskins are familiar foes would be an understatement, but there is a new twist of sorts this time around. Washington will be showcasing its new 3-4 defensive scheme.

“It's tough just from how they try to attack you,” Cowboys tight end Jason Witten told reporters. “And I think we have a pretty general idea of how they're going to play that defense, what their philosophy is behind it. You know what they're about, and that defense is one of the top 10 over the last decade. I know they're going to be ready to play and try to keep us in negative situations as far as down-and-distance.”

The Cowboys faced three teams with new 3-4 defenses in 2009. They posted a 1-2 record in those games against the Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers, averaging 14.3 points per contest.

Be Like Mike

The Redskins are not only coming out with a revamped defense, but they have also switched to a new offensive scheme. That’s simply what happens when Mike Shanahan takes over as head coach. Shanahan, of course, is bringing his zone-blocking scheme with him from Denver to Washington.

Count running back Clinton Portis among those who are signed up and ready to go.

“I actually feel great about our offense because I know the scheme is set up not to ask (offensive linemen) to do a lot,” Portis noted. “If they know the game plan and know what they have to do, the scheme alone is going to put us at an advantage. It’s going to be a hit or miss.”

Portis is also excited just to be back on the field after missing the last eight games of the 2009 season due to a concussion.

“I think that (the concussion) was a blessing,” he explained. “I think that it gives you the opportunity to go out and realize how much being on the field really means to you, how much being around your teammates means and not feeling like the missing link.”

Trending topics

The Cowboys wrapped up last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games and they were 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against NFC opposition. The Redskins were 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Dallas (4-1 ATS in its last five Week 1 outings) generally gets off to a better start than Washington (0-3-2 ATS in its last five season openers). However, the turf-loving Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five forays on grass while the Redskins are 3-0-3 ATS in their last six grass games.

The over was 5-1 in each team’s last six games during the 2009 season. The over was 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six road games and 4-1 in the Redskins last five home dates.

Head-to-head, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the two teams and the under is 4-1 in the last five encounters. The Cowboys are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall against Washington, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as visitors.

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**Udog** · 09-12-2010, 09:18 AM

NFL

Sunday, September 12

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Tips and Trends
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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 47.5) There is plenty of excitement in Green Bay regarding the Packers, as they are expected to contend for a Super Bowl berth. Green Bay has an electrifying offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is coming off a season in which he threw for 4,434 YDS, along with 30 TD's. Adding to this offensive display was a preseason in which he completed nearly 80% of his passes with 6 TD's and no INT's. This Packers offense is elite, and it appears they will challenge New Orleans for the best offense in the game. Despite all the optimism, the Packers have a tough road game to start the season. Green Bay has lost their past 9 games in Philadelphia SU. In addition, the Eagles seem to have the Packers number considering the Packers are only 2-7 ATS in their past 9 games with the Packers. As good as their offense looked in the preseason, the defense was every bit as poor. The secondary of the Packers was atrocious during the preseason, as they were beat consistently through the air. Last season, the Packers led the NFL in rushing defense, allowing only 83.3 YPG.

Packers are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 road games.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games in September.

Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)

EAGLES: The new era for Philadelphia is here, as they play their first meaningful game without Donovan McNabb. The Kevin Kolb experiment starts tonight, with a very difficult game against the Packers. Kolb made 2 starts last season, and passed for more than 300 YDS in each. Kolb has plenty of receivers at his disposal, from TE Brent Celek to WR's DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Overall, the Eagles average starter is only 25 years old, so the youth movement is in full effect. RB LaSean McCoy also has big shoes to fill, as he's replacing longtime starter Brian Westbrook. For Philadelphia to make the playoffs this season, their defense is going to have to improve. After being a top 5 defense for the better part of the last decade, the Eagles slipped to the middle of the pack last year. Against the Packers, the Eagles are going to look to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers with a 4 man rush, enabling as many players in the secondary to handle the passing game of Green Bay. Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in their past 9 meetings with the Packers.

Eagles are 5-2 ATS last 7 games in September.
Over is 9-2-1 last 12 home games.

Key Injuries - DE Victor Abiamiri (knee) is out.

Projected Score: 24

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

COWBOYS: (-3.5, O/U 40) Dallas is opening up their 50th anniversary season with a primetime game against their NFC East rival, the Washington Redskins. With this being their 50th anniversary, the Cowboys would like nothing more than to win the Super Bowl in their own stadium. For this dream scenario to happen, QB Tony Romo is going to have to play much better than he fared in this past preseason. Romo looked lethargic in the preseason, throwing 2 INT's to only 1 TD. Romo has plenty of weapons at his disposal, with WR Miles Austin chief among them. Austin caught 81 passes last year for 1,320 YDS and 11 TD's. Besides Austin, Romo also has receiving options in TE Jason Witten and WR Roy Williams. Defensively, the Cowboys were sensational last year in keeping opposing offenses away from the end zone. Dallas allowed the fewest PTS in the NFC last year with 250. Dallas plays an aggressive 3-4 defense, led by LB DeMarcus Ware. Ware has 31 sacks over the past 2 season, the most in the NFL in that timeframe. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 season openers.

Cowboys are 9-3 ATS last 12 games in September.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Dez Bryant (knee) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

REDSKINS: The Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan experiment begins tonight, amongst much fanfare. Washington has one of the most popular followings in the NFL, so there is plenty of support for a once proud franchise. Coach Shanahan has made waves during the preseason, as he has made a mockery of DT Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth has been a huge disappointment for the Redskins, as he can't keep himself healthy enough to stay on the field. Most importantly, Shanahan is make an example of Haynesworth by keeping him off the field altogether. McNabb is expected to improve an offense that only scored 6 PTS against the Cowboys in 2 meetings last year. Unfortunately, McNabb didn't fare much better against the Cowboys last year either, going 0-3 SU. With Shanahan's West Coast offense in place, McNabb is hopeful of turning the tide against Dallas. Also working in the Redskins favor is the fact that the listed underdog is 19-7 ATS in the past 26 meetings when these 2 teams square off.

Redskins are 3-11 ATS last 14 home games.
Under is 13-5-1 last 19 games in September.

Key Injuries - RB Clinton Portis (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)

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**Udog** · 09-12-2010, 10:57 PM

NFL

Monday, September 13

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What bettors need to know: Monday Night Football
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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-2, 36)

CURRENT ODDS

The Jets opened as 3-point home favorites earlier this summer but the money came in on the Ravens. New York is between 1.5- and 2-point chalk. The over/under opened at 37.5 this summer and the bettors backed the under and bringing the total down to 36.

These are two of the favorites to win the AFC conference this season with the Ravens standing at +500 and the Jets at +600 to advance to the Super Bowl with +1000 odds for Baltimore and +1300 for New York to win Super Bowl XLV.

WEATHER REPORT

The weather forecast is calling for rain on Monday morning, however the conditions should be clear by Monday afternoon. There is only a 30 percent chance of showers by kickoff on Monday night at the New Meadowlands Stadium. Temperatures will be around 70 degrees with winds at only six mph.

NO HOLMES BUT REVIS IS BACK

The Jets will be without their top off-season acquisition as wide receiver Santonio Holmes will miss the first four games of the season. Holmes is suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

And after a 36-day holdout, the Jets finally came to terms with cornerback Darrelle Revis on a four-year $46 million dollar deal. Revis is widely regarded as the best shutdown corner in the NFL, so getting him back was a big deal for the Jets.

Revis’ agent showed up at head coach Rex Ryan’s home with Revis’ jersey before the deal was done. Ryan had this to say to the agent: "Neil, I don't want the fu**ing jersey. I want him."

STRANGE DAYS

Offense is the story in Baltimore these days, not defense.

The Ravens have a young quarterback (Joe Flacco) with a big arm and playoff wins under his be< they’ve got a hybrid tailback (Ray Rice), who’s dangerous running between the tackles and catching the ball in the flat; with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Anquan Boldin, they have easily their deepest and most talented group of receivers in the franchise’s history.

“I think [our] will offense will be the No. 1 offense,” veteran wideout Derrick Mason told the Baltimore Sun.

THEY TALK THE TALK BUT...

No team has been hyped more this offseason than the New York Jets. Head coach Rex Ryan oozes with confidence and told anyone who’d listen that his group is primed to win the Super Bowl.

“Is it going to be easy? Hell no,” Ryan told the New York Daily News. “There’s no guarantee that this is going to happen. But I sense it’s going to happen. I really believe that we’re going to do this thing. In my heart, I think this is the time.”

Ray Lewis doesn’t agree with his former defensive coordinator’s belief. The Ravens middle linebacker expressed his distaste for all the attention the Jets are getting.

"We're talking about the Jets like we're talking about the (New Orleans) Saints," Lewis told the Newark Star-Ledger. "Those are the only people that can be dethroned: Drew Brees and the Saints. Not Mark Sanchez and the Jets."

The Jets didn’t look too good in the preseason, particularly Mark Sanchez. But the sophomore quarterback tells reporters that he and his teammates aren’t concerned about their struggles in August.

"I don't think we're too worried about it," he told the Bergen Record. "We're confident. We're excited about this next challenge and we know that it's time to get going."

San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 44.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

CURRENT ODDS

The Chargers opened as 5.5-point road favorites earlier this summer and the line briefly touched -6 before moving back down to -4.5. The over/under line has seen very little action this summer with the line fluctuating from 45 down to 44.5 total points.

The Chargers are a heavy -300 favorite to win the AFC West division this season, while the Chiefs are a +700 long shot. Oddsmakers are giving the Chargers (-500) an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs for a fifth straight season, while the Chiefs have only a 20 percent chance (+350) of making a postseason appearance for the first time since the 2006 season.

WEATHER REPORT

There is only a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium with a temperature of 75 degrees and winds at only nine mph.

MATTHEWS EXPRESS

The Chargers let LaDainian Tomlinson go (he’s with the Jets now) and they used their first-round draft pick on running back Ryan Mathews from Fresno State.

Mathews gained 146 yards on 34 carries in the preseason. He averaged an impressive 4.3-yard per rush, and according to Chargers head coach Norv Turner, Mathews will be featured in Monday night’s game.

“I want Ryan to have an opportunity to have an impact on this game,” Turner said. “So he’s going to get the ball. I think in one of those (preseason) halves he had 11 carries. I would think he’s going to get double-digit touches in each half (against the Chiefs). I’d like to see that happen.”

CASSEL IS THE CHIEF QUESTION MARK

Chiefs’ quarterback Matt Cassel parlayed his solid season in New England to a big paycheck in Kansas City last year. Cassel was given a free pass last season as he and the Chiefs were just beginning a big rebuilding project.

But after a dismal preseason for Cassel, he has a lot of doubters out there, including former NFL quarterback and current CBS analyst Rich Gannon.

“There’s a sense of urgency. I think he realizes this is an important year,” Gannon says. “I’m just trying to be realistic. I think he’s a fine player. Do I think he’s a Pro Bowl-caliber player right now? Well, no. He’s got to get better. As you look at him in the preseason, it’s still a work in progress.”

Keep this little quote in mind as it may be a nice motivator for Cassel if Gannon is the commentator for one of his games later this season.

BIG NAMES MISSING FOR THE BOLTS

Tomlinson isn’t the only familiar face who won’t be in uniform for the Chargers Monday night. Leading receiver Vincent Jackson and starting left tackle Marcus McNeill are both in conflicts with team management over their contract situations and won’t suit up against the Chiefs.

Former Pro Bowl outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is doubtful for Monday’s game because of injury. Merriman was seen in a protective boot over the weekend.

“It’s just to take the pressure off (the injured Achilles),” head coach Norv Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “It’s not an exact science. I think he’s doing better and he’s done more each day. He’s shown great improvement.”

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**Udog** · 09-13-2010, 08:03 AM

NFL

Monday, September 13

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Tips and Trends
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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets [ESPN | 7:00 PM ET]

RAVENS: Baltimore is a team that's flying under the radar, so what better opportunity to state their dominance than against a former coach in front of a national audience? Baltimore is always going to be a defensive team first, but they've added some offensive talent in the offseason. QB Joe Flacco is expected to make the step up to elite status this year, and WR acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are sure to help. Include these receiving options with the duel threat of RB Ray Rice, and you have an offense that can be dynamic. The Ravens finally have an offense to match their world class defense, and a very balanced offense at that. The Ravens defensive leader will always be LB Ray Lewis, for as long as he plays. Lewis will try to rally the troops to beat their former coach. Surprisingly, Baltimore is a team that typically plays to the over when they are on Monday Night Football. Baltimore hasn't received the same amount of press that the Jets have this offseason, but the Ravens are anxious to prove they made the better transactions overall.

Ravens are 6-0 ATS last 6 games in September.
Over is 8-3 last 11 Monday games.

Key Injuries - S Ed Reed (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

JETS: (-2, O/U 36.5) The moment is finally here, as the "Hard Knocks" team finally takes the field when it matters. There might not be another team in the NFL that made more news in the offseason than the New York Jets. From LaDanian Tomlinson to Darrelle Revis to Coach Rex Ryan, New York is the team that everyone has an opinion of whether it's out of love or spite. Coach Ryan would like nothing more that to beat the team that made him famous, so this game is clearly going to be played with passion. New York originally opened up as a 3 point home favorite, but this line is dropping. QB Mark Sanchez will be expected to manage a clean game, as he can ill afford to have any costly turnovers against this Ravens defense. The AFC East projects to be one of the toughest divisions in football, so the Jets need to pick up every home win they can. Defensively, New York figures to be far better with Revis playing and under contract. The Jets are 5-2-1 ATS in their past 8 Week 1 games.

Jets are 4-0 ATS last 4 games in September.
Over is 5-1 last 6 Monday games.

Key Injuries - CB Darrelle Revis (contract) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs [ESPN | 10:15 PM ET]

CHARGERS: (-5, O/U 44.5) San Diego appears to be making their final go at a Super Bowl. Despite the team getting older, as well as some key holdouts, San Diego feels that this might be their best chance of making the Super Bowl a reality. The Chargers faithful is frustrated due to the holdouts of both Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson. Despite ending their working relationship with LaDanian Tomlinson, the Chargers drafted RB Ryan Matthews. Matthews is the odds on favorite to win Rookie of the Year, and will be counted on to produce from the start for the Chargers. QB Phillip Rivers finally has his opportunity to be the clear cut leader of his football team. Rivers has spent all offseason becoming the leader necessary of any successful football team. TE Antonio Gates will be counted on to fill the shoes of holdout WR Vincent Jackson. While the Chargers offense projects to be dynamic yet again, the defense has huge question marks. Chief among them is the health of LB Shawne Merriman. The Chargers are -300 to win the AFC West this year, but this is a team that's far from perfect. San Diego is 24-10-4 in their last 38 AFC West games.

Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games.
Over is 9-1 last 10 games in September.

Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (achilles) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

CHIEFS: Kansas City is a team that is going through a rebuilding stage, and they are doing it with an infusion of young talent. The Chiefs have made enough additions in the skill department to make for a dangerous team. Playing in Kansas City is never easy, so homefield advantage is likely to aid in the development of this young team. QB Matt Cassel needs to improve on not only his play on the field, but also as the leader of this young team. Cassel is being paid as a franchise player, but Kansas City simply hasn't received the production typical of a franchise player. RB Jamaal Charles is a young player on the rise, as he's expected to get the ball early and often tonight to keep the high powered Chargers offense off the field. Besides Charles, the Chiefs are likely to target WR Dwayne Bowe. Bowe is a physical WR that simply overpowers most defensive backs. The biggest thing Kansas City has struggled with over the past year is their offense within the red zone. Time and time again the Chiefs have settled for field goals as opposed to TD's. Kansas City is +700 to win the AFC West this year, so clearly oddsmakers agree that this is yet another rebuilding year for Kansas City.

Chiefs are 7-18-1 ATS last 26 home games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games in Week 1.

Key Injuries - LB Tamba Hali (foot) is questionable.

Projected Score: 14

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (9/9 - 9/13)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (9/9 - 9/13)

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