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**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 12:06 AM

Weekend Tech Trends

WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...WMU is just 3-11 vs. line last 14 since late ‘08, and just 7-15 vs. line away from Kalamazoo since ‘07. But MSU only 4-9 vs. line its last 13 on board, and Dantonio just 3-6 laying DDs at home since arriving in ‘07. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at FLORIDA...RedHawks have dropped first spread decision of season in 6 of past 7 years. Miami only 9-18 vs. number its last 27 on board dating to late ‘07. Florida is 12-6 laying DDs past two seasons, and Gators are 10-2 vs. line outside of SEC since ‘07. Tech edge-Florida, based on team trends.

ILLINOIS vs. MISSOURI (at St. Louis)...Mizzou has won and covered last three meetings. Meanwhile, Illinois HC Ron Zook is only 4-11 vs. number last 15 on board since late ‘08. Zook also just 1-8 against points last 9 vs. non-Big Ten foes. Tech edge-Missouri, based on series trends.

COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE (at Denver)...Only 1 of the last 8 in this series has been decided by more than 7 points. CSU was cold down the stretch last season, losing its last 9 SU and last 6 vs. number. Rams, however, are 4-1 vs. line last 5 as non-MWC dog. Tech edge-slight to CSU, based on competitive series trends.

NORTHWESTERN at VANDERBILT...Robbie Caldwell debut as Vandy HC. But Dores no covers last 8 as host or last 5 as Vandy Stadium dog. Meanwhile, NU has covered 8 of last 9 away from home, although Cats no covers last 5 as chalk. Fitzgerald 3-12 last 15 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Larry Porter debut at Memphis. Tigers are a wretched 2-10 their last 12 on board since late ‘08 and just 1-6 against line last 7 away from Liberty Bowl. Memphis also 1-5 last 6 as DD dog and 1-9 last 10 vs. line outside of CUSA. Tech edge-MSU, based on Memphis negatives.

TEXAS at RICE (at Reliant Stadium)...Teams didn’t meet LY, but Horns had won and covered previous four seasons, scoring 51 or more each time, winning each by 41 or more! Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.

PURDUE at NOTRE DAME...Brian Kelly ND debut. This series has been well-matched in recent years, with teams splitting the last 6 spread decisions. Purdue was 2-0 as DD dog for Danny ope LY and is 4-0 in role since ‘07. Note that Kelly was only 6-8 his last 14 on board at Cincy, and only 2-6 last 8 as DD chalk with Bearcats. Irish were only 5-15 their last 20 as home chalk for Charlie Weis. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.

UCONN at MICHIGAN...Rich Rodriguez is just 7-17 vs. number since arriving at Ann Arbor in ‘08, and closed ‘09 losing and failing to cover his last five games. Wolverines did cover all 3 on board vs. non-Big Ten LY, but Rodriguez just 4-8 as chalk since ‘08. Meanwhile, UConn HC Randy Edsall now 12-2 vs. line last 14 on board since late ‘08, and covered all 7 away from home LY, as well as all 7 as dog. Huskies have also covered their last 6 vs. non-Big East foes. Tech edge-UConn, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Joker Phillips and Charlie Strong debuts. Cats have won last 3 in hateful series after dropping previous 4. UK covered all 5 of its reg.-season games on road LY and is 12-4 vs. number last 16 on reg.-season road. Cats have also covered last 3 as road chalk since ‘07 and have covered first game on board in 4 of last 5 seasons. Cards only 3-9 last 12 as dog in the now-aborted Kragthorpe regime in which they also dropped 12 of their last 16 vs. number. Tech edge-UK, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at OREGON... Lobos actually 3-1 vs. line getting 20 more LY for Mike Locksley, and 2-0 getting more than 30. In prior years, UNM usually offered decent value for Rocky Long in road dog role. Ducks not a bad big favorite lately, however, covering both laying 21 or more LY, and 4 of 5 since ‘08. They’re also 10-1 their last 11 laying 16 or more, dating back to Bellotti days in ‘04. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

UCLA at KANSAS STATE...UCLA HC Rick Neuheisel just 3-8 his last 11 as dog, although he has covered 5 straight vs. non-Pac 10 foes. Bill Snyder 3-1 vs. line at home LY, and KSU now 11-4 vs. line as home chalk since ‘05. Cats 6-1 laying 10 or fewer at home that span. Tech edge-slight to K-State, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at AKRON...Rob Ianello debut for Zips. Rare road chalk role for Cuse, which has dropped last 3 in role, all of the way back to Paul Pasqualoni’s last season in ‘04Y. Tech edge-slight to Akron, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON at BYU...Believe it or not, BYU just 1-8 vs. number its last 9 in Provo, and 1-7 last 8 as home chalk. Tech edge-UW, based on recent BYU spread woes in Provo.

WASHINGTON STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Cougs dropped last 4 vs. line LY and are now 9-15 vs. spread under Paul Wulff since ‘08. Wazzu only 8-15 as DD dog since ‘07. OSU’s Mike Gundy was 0-3 as DD chalk LY but his extended numbers in role are pretty good (11-5 since ‘05, 8-4 at Stillwater that span). Gundy also 10-4 last 14 as home chalk dating to late ‘06. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at ALABAMA...Mike MacIntyre debut at San Jose. Nick Saban only 2-2 laying 28 or more the past two seasons, but he’s 19-9 overall last 28 on board. San Jose covered just once LY for Dick Tomey and is just 1-14 its last 15 on board. Spartans 0-7-1 vs. line last 8 on road, and 1-10 as DD road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-Bama, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at OKLAHOMA...Utags have been a pointspread force lately, now 20-9 last 29 spread decisions. USU covered all 4 as DD road dog LY and is 5-0-1 last 6 in role and 12-5-1 against number last 18 on road. Stoops was only 4-7 as chalk LY with injury-depleted team, including 0-3 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.

ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU was winless SU for Ron English LY and only 4-8 vs. line, and 1-4 vs. spread at raucous Ypsilanti. Eagles just 2-9 at wild Rynearson Stadium since ‘07 and 2-7 as home dog that span. Army has won and covered the last two years vs. EMU, but note that West Zpoint’s only cover as chalk away from Michie in the past decade came vs. Navy at Philly in 2001. Tech edge-Army, based on EMU negatives.

OREGON STATE at TCU (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington)...Frogs have won last 7 openers and covered their last 5 lid-lifters. TCU 12-4 as home chalk (in Fort Worth) since ‘07 and 14-5 laying DDs that span. Meanwhile, OSU only one cover in last five openers, but Riley’s Beavers were 4-0 as road dog LY and are 9-3 in role since ‘07. Yet they are just 6-19 vs. spread in September since Riley returned to OSU in 2003. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA vs. LSU (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Les Miles has had declining spread fortunes lately, just 10-23 vs. number his last 33 on board since early ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UNC, based on recent LSU spread woes.

CINCINNATI at FRESNO STATE...Butch Jones Cincy debut, he inherits a Bearcat team on an 18-game reg.-season win streak! Cincy was 8-2 as dog over the past three seasons. Butch was 9-3 vs. line at CMU LY and 22-13 vs. spread with Chips from ‘07-09. Pat Hill only 2-11 vs. line at home since ‘07 and just 3-18 vs. spread last 21 at Dog House since mid ‘05. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at UNLV...Bobby "General Stanley McChrystal" Hauck debut for UNLV. Under Mike Sanford, Rebs were only 3-8 vs. line LY, although over the past five years they have generally been tough as a home dog (12-7). Badgers only 6-12 vs. line away from home since ‘07 and 1-3 laying DD away over that span. Tech edge-UNLV, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA...Mark Richt has underachieved vs. number lately between the hedges, only 9-18 vs. line at home since ‘05 (9-17 as home chalk). Richt 5-13 laying DDs since ‘05 and 4-10 as DD home chalk that span. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on Georgia negatives.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at NEBRASKA...Willie Taggart WKU debut. Tops actually covered last 4 on board in ‘09 despite winless SU campaign, and have covered 5 of last 6 getting 20 or more! Bo Pelini 12-6 last 18 vs. number, and note how Huskers have brutalized Sun Belt foes lately, walloping Ark State and ULL LY, and last three vs. Sun Belt, Huskers have outscored foes 160-3, covering all 3 easily. Pelini has covered last 3 chances laying 24 or more. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at CLEMSON...Todd Dodge 13-22 vs. line with UNT since arriving in ‘07. Going back further, Mean Green 3-19 vs. line last 22 vs. non-Belt foes away from Denton. Dabo on 11-6 spread run last 17 on board, although Clemson has failed to cover its last 4 laying 20 or more, dating to the Tommy Bowden days. Tech edge-Clemson, based on extended UNT spread woes.

BOWLING GREEN at TROY...Revenge for Troy after 31-14 opening loss LY. Falcs 16-6 vs. line away from Doyt Perry since ‘07 and 5-1 as DD road dog that span. BGSU 8-2 vs. line visiting non-MAC teams since ‘06. Troy also 5-0 vs. line at home LY and 11-2 as host since ‘07. Trojans 10-2 as home chalk since ‘07 and 6-1 last 7 as DD chalk. Troy also 4-1 vs. line last 5 hosting non-Belt. Tech edge-slight to Troy, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at AUBURN...ASU collapsed LY, no covers last 6 and only 2-9 vs. line. Red Wolves now 3-16 last 19 games on board. ASU also just 10-24 vs. line since ‘07 and 5-15 vs. line on road that span. Also 1-4 last 5 as DD dog, although UNT has covered its last two tries getting 30 or more (vs. Texas in ‘07 and Auburn, of all teams, in ‘06). Gene Chizik 5-3 vs. line at Jordan-Hare LY, but dropped 6 of last 8 overall vs. line in ‘09. Tech edge-slight to Auburn, based on recent ASU negatives.

TULSA at EAST CAROLINA (Sunday, September 5)...Ruffin McNeill debut at ECU! Pirates won as a dog at Tulsa the past two seasons, winning CUSA title in ‘08. Skip Holtz was 23-9 as dog at ECU from ’05-09. Tulsa dropped 7 of last 9 vs. line LY, and Todd Graham now 3-9 his last 12 as chalk since late ‘08. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.

SMU at TEXAS TECH (Sunday, September 5)...Tommy Tuberville debut at Texas Tech! Tech routed SMU in three straight years from ‘06-08, but Red Raiders were only 3-6 as DD Lubbock chalk for Mike Leach the past three years. June Jones 7-1 as dog LY. Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on team trends.

MARYLAND vs. NAVY (Monday, September 6 at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore)...Ralph Friedgen only 6-11 vs. line his last 17 on board and has incredibly lost first spread decision of campaign the past eight seasons! Ralph 3-9 last 12 as a 7-point or fewer dog away from home. Navy, however, was only 2-6 as chalk LY, and 6-12 as chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Navy, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Monday, September 6 at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)... Boise 17-6-1 last 24 on board. Broncos 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. non-WAC foes, and 11-3 vs. line last 14 away. Frank Beamer, however, 26-11 vs. line away from home since ‘04, and 11-4 as dog since ‘04. Tech edge-slight to Boise, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 12:12 AM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 9/3-9/5

With the NFL still a week away, Major League Baseball has this one last weekend as the nation’s top professional sport, especially amongst bettors. Below are the two key series to watch this holiday weekend, one in each league.

Colorado at San Diego (Friday-Sunday)
The Padres have the pitching matchup advantage this weekend to distance themselves from the never-say-die Rockies. San Diego has lost seven straight games, but still leads the West by three games over San Francisco and 7.5 games over Colorado.
On Friday, the Padres send Cory Luebke to the mound for his major-league debut. Despite his lack of big-league experience, oddsmakers set the line at -149 for the former first-round draft pick. Luebke, a 6-foot-4 southpaw, finished his stint at Triple-A Portland with a 14-inning scoreless streak and posted a 2.97 ERA, 44 K and 17 BB in nine starts with Portland. The line is also indicative of Luebke’s opponent Aaron Cook (4-8, 5.34 ERA) and his outrageous 13.98 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in his last three starts.

FoxSheets shows two 4*-rated bullpen trends to give bettors confidence that San Diego’s losing streak will end on Friday.

Play Against - Road teams (COLORADO) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (70-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +43.8 units. Rating = 4*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (COLORADO) - with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.250 over his last 3 starts. (37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +26.9 units. Rating = 4*).

Texas at Minnesota (Friday-Sunday)
The big series in the American League pits division leaders Texas and Minnesota. The Twins swept the Rangers the last time these clubs met at Target Field (May 28-30), outscoring them 16-7 in the three games. But the Rangers also get a huge boost this weekend as both Josh Hamilton (.361 BA, 31 HR, 97 RBI) and Ian Kinsler (.298 BA, .387 OBP) are expected to return to the lineup from injuries.
Oddsmakers were thrown a curve ball for Friday’s series opener as Twins’ probable Nick Blackburn was forced to pitch in relief and took the loss in Thursday’s 13-inning defeat to Detroit. As we went to press, Matt Fox was expected to make his major-league debut for Minnesota on Friday. Blackburn will likely start Sunday.

With Friday and Sunday unclear, let’s shift our focus to Saturday’s matchup. The Rangers send Colby Lewis (9-11, 3.56 ERA) to the mound to face Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA). The Rangers are 1-7 in the last eight games started by Lewis, but don’t blame the pitcher. Over this span, Lewis has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 51 K in 51.1 IP. The one win came two weeks ago against Minnesota where Lewis was victorious with 6.1 quality innings of work (seven hits, three runs).

Despite being winless in his past three starts, Pavano has already set a career high in wins this season. He has not fared well against Texas though. In five career starts (all since 2009), Pavano is 1-3 with a 7.62 ERA and allowing the Rangers a .321 batting average.

Look for this FoxSheets trend to factor in Saturday when the Rangers will be slight underdogs. Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (TEXAS) - with a winning record on the season, in September games. (223-175 over the last 5 seasons.) (56%, +88.7 units. Rating = 3*).

This same stat may hold true on Sunday when the Twins will be the underdog against Texas ace C.J. Wilson (14-5, 2.88 ERA). It’s unclear at this point if Minnesota will be more than +150 on the money line. It is rare for a larger spread to be placed on a division leader in September playing so well at home recently (13-3 in last 16 games at Target Field).

There are many interesting trends to play on (and against) this weekend. Here’s a look at the highly-rated ******* Power Trends that will impact the action.

NEW YORK METS at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 14-26 (-23.6 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.8, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 4*).

HOUSTON at ARIZONA

HOUSTON is 3-23 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.4, OPPONENT 6.7 - (Rating = 4*).

TAMPA BAY at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 13-7 (+16.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).

DETROIT at KANSAS CITY

DETROIT is 0-7 (-10.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 2.6, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 3*).

CINCINNATI at ST. LOUIS

CINCINNATI is 77-52 (+22.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*).

CHICAGO WHITE SOX at BOSTON

BOSTON is 8-26 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.5, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*).

TORONTO at NEW YORK YANKEES

NY YANKEES are 70-29 (+31.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY YANKEES 5.8, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

ATLANTA at FLORIDA

ATLANTA is 12-24 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*).

MILWAUKEE at PHILADELPHIA

PHILADELPHIA is 27-10 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*).

LOS ANGELES ANGELS at OAKLAND

LA ANGELS are 8-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The average score was LA ANGELS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*).

CLEVELAND at SEATTLE

CLEVELAND is 9-30 (-16.4 Units) against the money line vs. a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 2*).

WASHINGTON at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 9-28 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*).

SAN FRANCISCO at LOS ANGELES DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 63-40 (+18.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**baseballdave** · 09-04-2010, 12:21 AM

good luck and thanks for the info
dave

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 12:44 AM

North Carolina vs. LSU

When the Games of the Year lines were released midway through the summer, most books had North Carolina as a three-point favorite for its opener against LSU at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Then when rumors began to circulate about UNC defensive end Marvin Austin allegedly having improper contact with an agent, most betting shops adjusted the Tar Heels to one-point ‘chalk.’

For most of August, the game was either a pick ‘em or one team or the other was favored by one. Then late last week, it became known that the NCAA was looking into allegations that a tutor (one that happened to also be Butch Davis’s nanny) may have been writing papers for a number of football players. At that point, most books made LSU a two or a 2 ½-point favorite and eventually took the game down off the board altogether.

While this investigation was ongoing, UNC decided to announce Austin’s indefinite suspension on Wednesday. Meanwhile, multiple media outlets were reporting that as many as 16 UNC players might get suspended. Nevertheless, many books put the number back up on Thursday, listing LSU as the ‘chalk’ at either 5 ½, six or 6 ½, with a total of 42.

On Friday morning, UNC finally announced the suspensions of 12 players, including seven starters. Three additional players, including senior LB Quan Sturdivant, didn’t fly to Atlanta with the team on Friday. However, UNC officials are optimistic that those three players will be cleared by the NCAA by Saturday morning and then be able to join the team and play against LSU.

The seven starters that definitely won’t be in uniform Saturday include three players that were on nearly ever preseason All-American team. That trio includes Austin, DE Robert Quinn and LB Bruce Carter. Quinn might be the nation’s premier pass rusher, collecting 11 sacks as a junior last year.

The four other starters include both starting cornerbacks, Kendric Burney and Charles Brown. Burney had five interceptions in 2009 and garnered All-ACC honors, while Brown was second on the team in tackles (66) and first in passes broken up (nine).

The last two starters are on offense, RB Ryan Houston and WR Greg Little. Houston ran for a team-high 713 yards and nine touchdowns last year. Little hauled in a team-high 62 receptions for 724 yards and five TDs in ‘09.

After this information came out Friday morning, most books adjusted LSU to a 7 ½-point favorite and upped the total to either 43 ½ or 44. UNC is now as generous as plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300 on UNC to win outright).

LSU is coming off a disappointing 9-4 campaign and there’s no doubt that Les Miles is on the hot seat in his sixth year at the helm. Since winning a national title in 2007, the Tigers are just 17-9 and Miles has looked foolish in a number of those losses.

For instance, Miles was clueless when it came to clock management in a 25-23 loss at Ole Miss that should’ve been a win if Miles would’ve called a timeout in the final minute rather that purposely allowing the entire play clock to wind down before Jordan Jefferson connected on a long pass that got the Tigers into field-goal range for a game-winning kick.

Jefferson is the key to this team. He threw for 17 TDs and was intercepted just seven times in ’09. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including WR Terrence Toliver, who had 53 catches for 735 yards and three TDs last year. Also, WRs Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard are two of the country’s most athletic players, although they lack a ton of experience at WR, especially Shepard.

With Charles Scott and Keiland Williams moving on, Stevan Ridley figures to get the bulk of the carries. Ridley averaged 7.7 yards per carry in ’08 and 4.0 YPC in ’09. As a junior, he’s hoping to enjoy a breakout campaign. He’ll have to share the load with Richard Murphy and Michael Ford.

As for LSU’s defense, senior LB Kelvin Sheppard is the leader of this unit. He led the Tigers in tackles last season with 110, including 7 ½ behind the line of scrimmage. Patrick Peterson is one of the best cover corners in the SEC but, beyond Sheppard and Peterson, there are just two other starters returning.

Before the suspensions, UNC was expected to have one of the nation’s best defenses. The major question about this squad was its quarterback, senior T.J. Yates. He has taken most of the snaps the last two seasons, but he has just a 25/22 touchdown-interception ratio for his career. Without his best RB and WR, even more pressure is on Yates to make plays.

That probably isn’t a good thing for Butch Davis and Co.

We’ll find out Saturday night when ABC has the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--There are conflicting reports about UNC’s Carter, who was originally thought to be one of the 12 players suspended. I’m now told that he’s one of the three players, along with Sturdivant, who did not fly with the team but might get late clearance to play. UPDATE: Carter and Sturdivant cleared to play and caught a Friday night flight to Atlanta.

--After ruling Ole Miss QB Jeremiah Masoli ineligible earlier this week, the NCAA reversed course on Friday and granted the university’s appeal. Masoli is immediately eligible to play, but he won’t start Saturday vs. Jacksonville St. Nathan Stanley will get the starting nod from Houston Nutt, but Masoli will play and most likely take over the starting job next week in a road game at Tulane.

--Playing without four of its best players – senior safety Chris Culliver, junior LB Shaq Wilson, senior OT Jarriel King and senior TE Weslye Saunders – South Carolina dominated So. Miss by a 41-13 count Thursday night at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Gamecocks easily covered the spread as 13-point home favorites. Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore was clearly ‘as advertised,’ reminding me of a young Fred Taylor. Lattimore and quarterback Stephen Garcia rushed for a pair of touchdowns apiece. Another true freshman, Ace Sanders, contributed with a 53-yard run on a reverse and two catches for 47 yards.

--Am I the only one who was in hell watching the ESPN telecast of the USC-Hawaii game? Seriously, Bob Davies is more of a clown as an analyst than he was as a head coach. And we KNOW how inept he was a head coach! I couldn’t figure out who I disliked the most in the second half of that game: Davies, Shelly Smith or Lame Chafin’? Tough call, as I find all three deplorable.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 12:49 AM

Gaming: College Pigskin Prognostications

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - After months of waiting, the 2010 college football season is ready to kick off its first barrage of Saturday games, and with that comes the unveiling of my inaugural Top 12, followed by each club's power ratings.

1-T) Boise State and Ohio State, 100.5; 3-T) Oklahoma and Alabama, 100; 5) Florida, 99.5; 6) Texas, 99; 7) Nebraska, 98.5; 8-T) Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 10-T) TCU and Oregon, 97.5; 12) LSU, 96.5

For comparison purposes, here were last year's final Top 10 numbers:

1) Alabama, 108; 2) Florida, 106; 3) Texas, 105.5; 4) TCU, 103.5; 5) Oklahoma, 103; 6) Virginia Tech, 102; 7) Boise State, 101.5; 8-T) Nebraska and Ohio State, 100; 10) Oregon, 98

2009 ATS RECORD

Yours truly went 5-3 during last year's bowl campaign for a final 2009 ATS total of 116-94-2, good for 55 percent.

This season I will continue highlighting the top plays on a weekly basis, especially since those games with extensive write-ups went 25-8-1 between Oct. 1 and the end of the season. I will also try to maintain that 75 percent winning percentage in 2010.

For those reading this column for the first time, I break down my picks into four classifications. The Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks -- games with at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.

Last season's Five-Star totals wound up at 5-4 (56 percent). The Three-Star choices went 45-24-1 (65 percent), while the Two-Star plays finished at 35-31-1 (53 percent). The One-Star picks ended at 31-35 (47 percent).

So far in 2010, the overall record stands at 1-0-1 as Hawaii (Two-Star) covered against USC and Utah (Three-Star) pushed versus Pittsburgh.

THE LONE FIVE-STAR PLAY

Auburn hosts Arkansas State in its opener this Saturday but one wonders how much the Tigers have prepared for the Red Wolves, especially with a huge conference road game just five days later against Mississippi State.

There is no doubt Auburn will be much improved this season after going 3-5 in SEC play last year. However, do not sell Arkansas State short. The Red Wolves have covered at least one game per season over the last seven years versus a BCS opponent, including a three-point SU loss at Iowa in '09, a victory over Texas A&M in '08, and an eight-point SU loss at Texas in '07. Arkansas State's defense will keep this one much closer than the line suggests.

Take the Red Wolves plus the points.

THREE-STAR PLAYS

Oklahoma State hosts Washington State and, surprisingly, the Cowboys are not favored by at least 20 points. The line is extremely low at 17 considering the Cougars still have major question marks on defense.

It is true Oklahoma State will not be one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season but the Cowboys will still put points on the scoreboard. Defensively, they will struggle with just four returning starters. Still, we are talking Washington State -- not Troy, Tulsa and Texas A&M, the next three opponents that come to Stillwater.

Take Oklahoma State minus the points.

Michigan State and Western Michigan hooked up last Nov. 7 and the Spartans rolled to a 49-14 victory. They also outgained the Broncos by close to 400 yards. Not much has changed since as Michigan State returns the bulk of its skill position players and four of its top five tacklers. On the other side, Western Michigan is without its all-time career passing leader in Tim Hiller and its third all-time leading rusher in Brandon West. The defense loses its top two tacklers along with both starting cornerbacks.

Take Michigan State minus the points.

TWO-STAR PICKS

Three underdogs top the Two-Star choices in week one. Go with Purdue (at Notre Dame), Cincinnati (at Fresno State), and Maryland (versus Navy).

ONE-STAR SELECTIONS

Take Toledo (against Arizona) on Friday night and follow that up with Washington plus the points (at BYU), and Boise State on Monday night (against Virginia Tech).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 08:37 AM

UConn, Purdue among intriguing weekend picks

The first week of the college football season has arrived and it will provide pigskin punters with a variety of wagering offerings from Thursday through Monday. While there are plenty of “paycheck” games involving ranked teams favored by wide margins over seemingly outclassed opponents, there are also a number of compelling matchups, including three games in which both teams are ranked.
On Saturday, (21) LSU and (18) North Carolina will square off in Atlanta in primetime. Another primetime contest features (24) Oregon State and BCS party crasher (6) TCU. The biggest game of the weekend will take place on Monday night when (3) Boise State and (10) Virginia Tech meet up in our nation’s capital. TCU and Boise State were among the nation’s best ATS last season as they both marched through their regular seasons undefeated straight up before squaring off in the Fiesta Bowl, which was won by Boise 17-10. The Broncos were 9-5 ATS, tied for ninth in FBS, while the Horned Frogs were 8-5 ATS, tied for 17th. Virginia Tech was also a solid play last year, going 8-5 ATS. We'll take a closer look at that intriguing Monday night matchup over this coming weekend.

Last season’s ATS champions were the University of Connecticut Huskies. Randy Edsall’s squad covered the line in 11 of 13 games while posting an 8-5 record straight up, which included an overtime victory in South Bend. The Huskies’ five SU losses last year were by 2, 3, 4, 4 and 2 points. They are a 3-point underdog this Saturday in the Big House. Michigan began last season 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS, but went 1-7 SU and 1-6 ATS the rest of the way (one game vs. FCS opponent). Fox Sheets show that the smart money is on UConn in this one. Play Against - Any team (MICHIGAN) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (36-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*).

Michigan was not the only high-profile program that struggled ATS last season. Despite all finishing with records of .500 or higher, USC (9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS) and Notre Dame (6-6, 3-8-1) were ranked 111th and 113th, respectively, ATS among the 120 FBS schools. All the teams below them had losing records. This should not be all that surprising given that lines are made with the public perception in mind. Backers of fabled college football institutions such as these must remind themselves that odds on these schools are often inflated because of their reputations.

(14) USC kicks off its season in Hawaii on Thursday night and is a three TD favorite. Fox Sheets are not scared by that large number: Play Against - A home team (HAWAII) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 5 offensive starters returning. (33-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.2%, +28.6 units. Rating = 5*). This Fox Sheet stat also pertains to Saturday’s Hoosier State battle between Purdue and Notre Dame in South Bend. The host Irish are a double-digit favorite. They defeated the Boilermakers 24-21 last season, but Purdue covered the 6-point spread. Further Fox Sheet ammunition for Purdue: Play Against - A home team (NOTRE DAME) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning. (30-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Top-ranked defending National Champion Alabama hosts San Jose State in one of those aforementioned “paycheck” games. The Tide, 14-0 straight up last year, were also a strong 9-4 ATS. On the flip side, the Spartans were 2-10 both SU and ATS. Their record ATS was worst among all FBS schools.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 08:49 AM

Guys, I found a site that gives all kinds of links to listen to the games we can't watch. I hope it helps some of you that wanna watch one and listen to others at the same time.

FreeFootballRadio-this weeks NFL schedule

Another site:

http://www.justin.tv/

**shoeman530** · 09-04-2010, 08:59 AM

good luck today bum - thanks for the info

**Spark** · 09-04-2010, 09:00 AM

Good Luck bum

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 09:02 AM

Where the action is: Saturday college football line moves

The opening week of the college football season is underway and backing the favorites seems to be the popular trend so far. Most sports bettors who take the summer off come back in a big way for the first bit of meaningful pigskin action.

“It’s a long weekend and we know we’re going to get a lot of action on the favorites from the betting public,” says Chuck Esposito, Casino Operations Manager at the Las Vegas Tropicana.

Here’s a peek at some of the college lines that have moved the most since opening in the first week of August:

Wisconsin at UNLV: Open: 18; Friday night: 20 (line history)

This line went as high as three touchdowns but seems to be settling around 20 points.

“There’s always a huge influx of Wisconsin bettors who come over here for this game,” Esposito says. “They back their team in a big way when they’re down here and that’s why we were high on this game.”

These two sides have played four times since 2002 and the Runnin’ Rebels have covered in the last three.

North Texas at Clemson: Open -21.5; Friday night -27 (line history)

The Tropicana didn’t open as low as some offshore books (Pinnacle opened at 21.5) but Esposito says they’ll still moved a field goal making Clemson a 27-point favorite.

“This is a mismatch between schools but there could be some value on the dog if (the spread) goes over four touchdowns.”

We don’t know much about North Texas but we do know the Mean Green are starting a former walk on under center in this game.

UCLA at Kansas State: Open +2.5; Friday night -1.5 (line history)

There’s been a bit of hype brewing over the Wildcats this season and that might be reflecting in this line movement toward the home side.

Still, in Las Vegas, Esposito says UCLA will be the popular play.

“Just because of our proximity to Los Angeles. And there’s a feeling UCLA has an opportunity with USC down this year.”

Western Michigan at Michigan State: Open -21; Friday night -24 (line history)

This looks like another example of bettors backing the bigger conference team against the smaller school. Western Michigan didn’t show much either to earn much support from dog bettors. The Broncos went 3-9 ATS last year and Michigan beat them 31-7 in Week 1 a year ago.

“Western Michigan doesn’t have the depth,” Esposito says. “There’s a lot of talent separating these two sides.”

Washington State at Oklahoma State: Open -14; Friday night -17 (line history)

This is supposed to be a down year for Oklahoma State with quarterback Zac Robinson gone. Still, the Cowboys opened as big faves and the line keeps growing.

Again, the Trop opened a bit higher than some of the offshore shops but Esposito says his book is getting all kinds of action on the Big 12 team.

“This line move has everything to do with Washington State,” Esposito says. “They’re a bad team and they’re traveling in their first game. There’s too much value on Oklahoma State unless they’re giving 17 or more points.”

If the line holds at 17, this will be the fewest points the Cougars have been spotted since September last season.

LSU at UNC: Open -1; Friday night +7 (line history)

You don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out this spread. The Tar Heels suspended 12 suspended players for this game including six on the defensive side of the ball.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 09:04 AM

Winds of change: NCF weather report

Good bye, Earl.

At least that’s what most college football teams across the country will be saying as it appears the remnants of Hurricane Earl will bypass most of the southeast and east coast and leave us with a beautiful summer day before autumn starts to come into full swing the next few weeks. Before the wind, rain and crazy weather starts to factor into your capping, enjoy one more weekend of mostly sunshine.

San Jose State at Alabama Crimson Tide (-37, 52): The weather is expected to be clear and sunny, but there is an expected 10 mph wind to keep an eye on. That could just mean more carries for RB Trent Richardson.

Miami (OH) Red Hawks at Florida Gators (-37, 53.5): There only will be an 8 mph wind in Gainesville, but just be careful about a potential 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-37.5, 51.5): The visitors will have more to compete against than just the Sea of Red: a 14 mph wind that could make passing difficult against one of the best defensive backfields in the game.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes (NA): Because the Orange Bowl champions are opening against a team from the Football Championship Subdivision, a line isn’t available with most books. However, beware of a 70 degree day with a wind gusting up to 14 mph to make it an awkward day for passing.

New Mexico Lobos at Oregon Ducks (-35, 54.5): The Ducks won’t have to worry much about the Lobos, but they should be careful that their offense doesn’t get clipped by breaking in a new quarterback against a 14 mph wind.

Wisconsin Badgers at UNLV Running Rebels (+20, 54.5): It will be interesting to see how the visitors from the Big 10 keep up their running game in 108-degree heat, but they will have every reason to keep the ball on the ground. An 11 mph wind is expected to complicate the passing game.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (NA): The defending ACC Champions host a MEAC cupcake in their opener so a line isn’t available for the cross-subdivisional game. However, if you do manage to find action, be aware of an 10 mph wind.

Youngstown State Penguins at Penn State Nittany Lions (NA): Another game against a patsy for the Nittany Lions. However, with it being an FCS school against and FBS school, lines are tough to come by. But even if you do find one, there is a huge flashing “STOP” sign around this game. The temperature could slip to 66 degrees and there is an expected 21 mph cross wind. Oh yeah, the hosts are starting a true freshman at quarterback.

Samford Bulldogs at Florida State (NA): You most likely won’t find action for the FCS-FBS matchup, but if you do, factor in a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms. Or, as it’s known, a typical day in Florida.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers (-31, 57.5): The Red Wolves gave Iowa all they wanted last year, so beware the howling dogs. However, Auburn likely will be more concerned with the 10 mph wind, then their non-BCS foe.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at West Virginia Mountaineers (NA): Another FCS-FBS tilt features a dark horse to win the Big East and a dark horse to win the Heisman in running back Noel Devine. And if the hosts need an excuse to hand him the ball, just check out the 20 mph wind that is expected.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 09:06 AM

College Four-play: Week 1 picks

What’s this, now?

Divisions in the Big Ten?

BYU rolling solo?

The Pac-12??

It all makes your head spin faster than a cheerleader holding a high leg kick.

The good news is that football items seemed to make a bigger splash this college offseason than police reports.

Alas, we can move on to the games themselves and the politics and legal wrangling will just be the stuff that fills up the week between Saturdays.

And that means College Four-play is back.

Let me tell you how Four-play works if you’re not sure (something you’ve likely heard more than once in your life.)

I make four picks each week and write about them every Friday. You briefly skim over my nonsense in search of my picks.

I finish the season somewhere around .500 (usually). You beak me perpetually in the conveniently located and user friendly comment section below.

I cry a little bit.

And that’s how it works. Simple.

Good luck to us in our wagering adventures this season and glad to have you reading. Now let’s make some beautiful page views together.

Oregon State (22) vs. TCU (7) (-13.5,50.5)

After a sensational season that was only eight points from perfection, the TCU Horned Frogs decided to start this year off with a bang – by gauging the hell out of their fans on ticket prices.

The best ticket for Saturday’s game at Cowboy Stadium goes for 163 bones, while a seat in the clouds will cost you 53 bucks - all to watch the game unfold on the giant screen that Jerry built. (You can get a top season ticket to TCU games this year for a little over two hundy.)

Similar to the prices for this show, the favorite costs too much here. No respect for the Beavers’ potent offense and the Rodgersesezzz.

Pick: Oregon State +13.5

Wisconsin vs. UNLV (+20.5, 57.5)

Ever hear of the game when the lights went out in Vegas?

It was the opening home game for UNLV back in 2002. Wisconsin was in town and they brought a ton of cheese wielding fans along with them, who plunked oodles of dough on their favorite squad at the sportsbooks.

All the action moved the line a bunch of points and as the game drew closer to finishing it looked like a Badger payout was in the bag – until the lights went out.

You gotta read this piece to get the shady details if you’re not familiar.

Fast forward to 2010 and here we have another UNLV home opener against Wisconsin. Surprise, surprise, Badger supporters have moved this line nearly a touchdown since it opened and the action is expected to keep piling in on the Cheese.

I don’t know about you, but I’m not betting against the books on this one.

Pick: UNLV +20.5

Washington vs. BYU (-2.5, 57)

When all this talk of conference musical chairs was going on this summer, I couldn’t believe that nobody was talking about going independent. Especially a big team like Texas at a time when the collapse of the Big Dozen looked imminent.

Who wouldn’t want a juicy TV contract and big bowl payouts they don’t have to divvy up with the rest of the conference? As an independent, you also get to hand-pick your own schedule – a huge plus in BCS times.

I wasn’t expecting BYU to be the one to step up to the plate, but you gotta give them credit. They just signed a big deal with ESPN and now have a six-year series lined up with Notre Dame. They’ll be an Indy in football and play in the Jesus League (WCC) in other sports, which works out perfectly for them.

It’s all very smart and I’m sure there are some schools out there right now wishing they made the same move.

What I don’t think is so smart is this dual quarterback system Bronco Mendenhall is going to start the year with. Gone is his proven gun slinger, Max Hall, who’s moved on to the pros. He’s now left with junior Riley Nelson and true freshman Jake Heaps, who will share snaps Saturday.

This experiment could be trouble. The Cougs will definitely need to score some points to keep up with Jake Locker and the Huskies.

Pick: Washington +2.5

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech (+1.5, 50)

I guess I wouldn’t be a man if I didn’t make a pick on this game. Or at least I’d have to get some scotch tape and do the Buffalo Bill thing for a week or so.

But I really do like Boise State here and it might not be why you think. The offense is about as scary as any you’ll see in college football, but the defense is the reason they’ll win this game.

This D returns 10 starters from a unit that allowed just 17 points and 300 yards per game last year. It also helped the Broncs finish third in the nation in turnover margin.

Pick: Boise State -1.5

**StarDust Bum** · 09-04-2010, 09:15 AM

College football Top 25 cheat sheet: Week 1

Pittsburgh Panthers at Utah Utes (-3, 48.5)

Why Pitt will cover: The Panthers ended their 2009 season covering five of their final final games.

Why Utah will cover: Playing on the road at night, Pittsburgh has a first-time starter at quarterback and returns just two starters on its offensive line.

Total: Both teams have strong running games, exhibiting 1,000-yard rushers, while both defenses are vulnerable.

San Jose State Spartans at Alabama Crimson Tide (-37, 51)

Why San Jose State will cover: Alabama might be looking ahead to next week when it hosts Penn State.

Why Alabama will cover: The Crimson Tide has covered six of its last nine games as a home favorite.

Total: San Jose State has had one of the worst offenses in the FBS, averaging 284 yards of total offense per game or less in each of the last two seasons.

Marshall Thunder Herd at Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 46.5)

Why Marshall will cover: The run-oriented Buckeyes may put it in cruise control with Miami looming as their next opponent.

Why Ohio State will cover: Marshall has not covered five consecutive games against ranked opponents.

Total: The under is 8-2 in Marshall’s last 10 road games and 9-2-1 in Ohio State’s last 12 games overall.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Florida Gators (-35, 52)

Why Miami (Ohio) will cover: The Redhawks were just 1-11 SU last year but return 19 starters. They might not be as bad as the experts think.

Why Florida will cover: The Gators are 17-3 ATS under Urban Meyer when facing a FBS non-conference opponent.

Total: Miami (Ohio) averaged 45 pass attempts per game a year ago and Florida will likely also take to the air often, as it aims to be more pass-oriented.

Rice Owls vs. Texas Longhorns (-30.5, 58.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls were 2-10 last year, so there may be line value for a team returning 18 starters.

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are 10-5 ATS against non-BCS teams since 2005.

Total: These teams have averaged a combined 59 points in their last six meetings.

Oregon State Beavers vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-13.5, 50.5)

Why Oregon State will cover: The Beavers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 season openers.

Why TCU will cover: Playing in Dallas, this game will be nearly a home game for the Horned Frogs, where they are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite.

Total: Both teams have averaged more than 30 points and 400 yards per game in each of their last two seasons.

Utah State Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners (-33.5, 57.5)

Why Utah State will cover: The Aggies are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

Why Oklahoma will cover: The confident Sooners are healthy and wanting to make a statement following last year’s injured-plagued, five-loss season.

Total: The offenses each return eight starters on units that both averaged more than 29 points and 425 yards per game in 2009.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-37.5, 51.5)

Why Western Kentucky will cover: The Hilltoppers return 18 starters from a team that went 6-5 ATS a year ago.

Why Nebraska will cover: In 2009, the Cornhuskers were 3-0 ATS versus Sun Belt teams, winning by an average of 43 points.

Total: Primarily, Nebraska’s defense has caused the team’s games to go under in 12 of its last 15 games.

New Mexico Lobos at Oregon Ducks (-34, 55)

Why New Mexico will cover: The Lobos are 25-17-1 ATS as home dogs since 2000.

Why Oregon will cover: New Mexico has a first-time starter at quarterback, playing in a hostile environment, where the Ducks are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.

Total: In New Mexico’s last four season openers, the average combined points have been less than 29.

Wisconsin Badgers at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+20.5, 57.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers return all five starting offensive linemen and the team’s top six rushers from a year ago while UNLV allowed nearly six yards per rush in 2009.

Why UNLV will cover: The Rebels are 5-1 ATS against Wisconsin in the series’ last six games.

Total: The last four times these two teams played, a combined average of just 29 points was scored.

LSU Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-6, 42.5)

Why LSU will cover: Besides North Carolina’s suspensions, coach Les Miles seems to usually have his Tigers ready for high-profile games.

Why North Carolina will cover: LSU returns only 10 starters and is 8-16-1 ATS the last two seasons.

Total: The over is 5-2 in North Carolina’s last seven non-conference games while LSU probably won’t be as good defensively as years past.

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at Georgia Bulldogs (-28.5, 52)

Why UL Lafayette will cover: Kind-hearted coach Mark Richt has a reputation of not running up the score on any team, especially on a lesser opponent.

Why Georgia will cover: The Bulldogs have one of the best offensive lines and running games in the nation while the Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed 4.6 yards or more per rush the last three seasons.

Total: The under is a combined 7-2-1 in each of these teams’ last five games.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers (-31, 58)

Why Arkansas State will cover: Against three top-notch opponents on the road since 2007 (Texas, Texas A&M, and Iowa), the Red Wolves easily covered all by an average of more than 24 points.

Why Auburn will cover: In the Tigers’ last 16 games when favored by 20-plus points, they are 11-5 ATS.

Total: In Arkansas State’s last 28 games, the under is 20-7-1.

Boise State Broncos vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-2, 50)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos return all but two starters from an undefeated team that has a bye next week.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Boise State has been susceptible to the run and the Hokies return two 1,200-yard rushers.

Total: Virginia Tech’s slow-it-down offensive pace caused the under to hit in five of its final seven games of 2009.

**jt4545** · 09-04-2010, 10:01 AM

Good luck and always thanks for your time

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