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**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:34 PM

Ravens, 49ers put perfect preseasons on the line

As we enter the final week of the preseason, there are just two teams with perfect 3-0 records ATS: the Ravens and 49ers. They are also the only two teams that are 3-0 straight up.Interestingly, all three of the Ravens’ games have gone under the total. The Ravens face the Rams in St. Louis in their preseason finale. The Rams are a surprising 2-1 both SU and ATS. In a classic “something must give” matchup, the Rams have played a trio of high-scoring contests this preseason, all going over. Fox Sheets show support for Baltimore and over, but we suspect most of the Ravens’ predecessors in this situation were not allowing a measly 8.3 ppg: Play On - Road underdogs or pick (BALTIMORE) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, undefeated in the preseason. (43-19 since 1993.) (69.4%, +22.1 units. Rating = 2*)Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. (32-11 since 1993.) (74.4%, +19.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The Niners put their undefeated mark on the line at home against the Chargers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS).On the flip side, there are four teams that are 0-3 ATS, three of which are also winless straight up.

Surprisingly, the Colts are one of the winless teams, joined more predictably by the Bears and the Chiefs. The Seahawks have yet to cover the spread, but they have recorded a win.The Colts will try to break into the win column at home against the Bengals (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS). Through three games, the Colts are giving up a whopping 43.3 ppg while scoring 20.7 ppg themselves, going over in all three contests. Fox Sheets forecast a continuation of this scoring trend:INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 17.5, OPPONENT 36.8.

In order to avoid a winless preseason, the Chiefs will need to find an answer for a Packers team (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) that is scoring 36.7 ppg. Somehow, the Chiefs are favored in this game.

The Bears travel to Cleveland looking to avoid a winless preseason. The Browns are 2-1 both straight up and ATS. Fox Sheets show strong evidence that the Bears will finish the preseason 0-4:Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. (31-6 since 1993.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The Seahawks fall into this same category, a road team that has failed to cover the spread in each of their three preseason games. They take on the Raiders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) in Oakland.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:35 PM

UConn, Purdue among intriguing weekend picks

The first week of the college football season has arrived and it will provide pigskin punters with a variety of wagering offerings from Thursday through Monday. While there are plenty of “paycheck” games involving ranked teams favored by wide margins over seemingly outclassed opponents, there are also a number of compelling matchups, including three games in which both teams are ranked.
On Saturday, (21) LSU and (18) North Carolina will square off in Atlanta in primetime. Another primetime contest features (24) Oregon State and BCS party crasher (6) TCU. The biggest game of the weekend will take place on Monday night when (3) Boise State and (10) Virginia Tech meet up in our nation’s capital. TCU and Boise State were among the nation’s best ATS last season as they both marched through their regular seasons undefeated straight up before squaring off in the Fiesta Bowl, which was won by Boise 17-10. The Broncos were 9-5 ATS, tied for ninth in FBS, while the Horned Frogs were 8-5 ATS, tied for 17th. Virginia Tech was also a solid play last year, going 8-5 ATS. We'll take a closer look at that intriguing Monday night matchup over this coming weekend.

Last season’s ATS champions were the University of Connecticut Huskies. Randy Edsall’s squad covered the line in 11 of 13 games while posting an 8-5 record straight up, which included an overtime victory in South Bend. The Huskies’ five SU losses last year were by 2, 3, 4, 4 and 2 points. They are a 3-point underdog this Saturday in the Big House. Michigan began last season 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS, but went 1-7 SU and 1-6 ATS the rest of the way (one game vs. FCS opponent). Fox Sheets show that the smart money is on UConn in this one. Play Against - Any team (MICHIGAN) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter. (36-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*).

Michigan was not the only high-profile program that struggled ATS last season. Despite all finishing with records of .500 or higher, USC (9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS) and Notre Dame (6-6, 3-8-1) were ranked 111th and 113th, respectively, ATS among the 120 FBS schools. All the teams below them had losing records. This should not be all that surprising given that lines are made with the public perception in mind. Backers of fabled college football institutions such as these must remind themselves that odds on these schools are often inflated because of their reputations.

(14) USC kicks off its season in Hawaii on Thursday night and is a three TD favorite. Fox Sheets are not scared by that large number: Play Against - A home team (HAWAII) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 5 offensive starters returning. (33-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.2%, +28.6 units. Rating = 5*). This Fox Sheet stat also pertains to Saturday’s Hoosier State battle between Purdue and Notre Dame in South Bend. The host Irish are a double-digit favorite. They defeated the Boilermakers 24-21 last season, but Purdue covered the 6-point spread. Further Fox Sheet ammunition for Purdue: Play Against - A home team (NOTRE DAME) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning. (30-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Top-ranked defending National Champion Alabama hosts San Jose State in one of those aforementioned “paycheck” games. The Tide, 14-0 straight up last year, were also a strong 9-4 ATS. On the flip side, the Spartans were 2-10 both SU and ATS. Their record ATS was worst among all FBS schools.

**shoeman530** · 09-02-2010, 05:36 PM

good luck sdb

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:36 PM

Braves, Hudson go for sweep of Mets

New York Mets (74-58) at Atlanta (68-65), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Atlanta -165, New York +145 Total: 6.5
The Mets and Braves conclude their four-game series at Turner Field Thursday night. The Braves enter play three games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East. The Braves have won the first three games of this series by a combined score of 22-6.
The Mets will throw hard-luck starter Johan Santana (10-9, 3.02 ERA). Despite pitching to a 2.72 ERA in his last six starts, Santana is just 2-4 in these games. Santana has lasted at least seven innings in each of those starts.

Tim Hudson (15-5, 2.24 ERA) gets the start for the Braves. Hudson loves pitching at home and he loves pitching against the Mets this season. In his 14 starts at Turner Field this season, Hudson is 10-3 with a 1.83 ERA. Hudson has won both of his starts against the Mets this season while posting a 0.69 ERA (one run in 13 innings). Hudson has also been terrific in his last eight starts going 6-0 with a 1.43 ERA.

Rumor has it that the Mets have already quit this season. Their 17-28 record and .221 team BA since the All-Star Break back up this claim. Look for Hudson and the Braves to complete the sweep.

FoxSheets says: ATLANTA is 19-4 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. The average score was ATLANTA 5.7, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:45 PM

Twins offer value as slight home favorite

Detroit (65-68) at Minnesota (77-56), 8:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Minnesota -115, Detroit +105 Total: 7.5
The Tigers and Twins complete their three-game series Thursday night in Minnesota. The Twins enter play four games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. The Twins are an MLB-best 31-14 since the All-Star Break, which includes win in the first two games in this series. They have also won 13 of their last 15 home games.
Justin Verlander (14-8, 3.58 ERA) will take the mound for the Tigers. Verlander is 3-6 with a 4.66 ERA in his last 12 starts against the Twins. The Tigers have also lost seven of eight games this season at Target Field.

Scott Baker (12-9, 4.55 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota. Baker has been excellent at Target Field this season going 8-3 with a 3.86 ERA in his 13 starts (Twins are 9-4 in those starts). Baker has also been solid in his last seven starts overall, going 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA. The Twins have won all seven of those Baker starts.

All these signs point to a sweep. FoxSheets says: MINNESOTA is 29-7 (+20.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 4*) .

**azoire** · 09-02-2010, 05:46 PM

good hunting

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:47 PM

Games to Watch - Week 1

Our collective nightmare is finally over as the college football season gets underway this week. There are 78 games in the first weekend of action, with 39 of those actually being on the board. Allow me to remind each and every person out there that VegasInsider.com will be here every week to look at the key matchups.

Let’s look at the big tilts of Week 1!

Thursday - Pittsburgh at Utah (Versus, 8:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

at
A lot of people are expecting the Panthers to get over the hump in Dave Wannstedt's sixth year at the helm. That tends to happen when you have the best rusher returning to college in Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,799 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2009. For Lewis to do the same this year, he'll have to run behind an o-line that brings back one starter. Pittsburgh is also sending Tino Sunseri out for his first start at quarterback in this game. The Utes are also positioned to storm the nation this season. They return Jordan Wynn under center. All he did was throw for 338 yards and three scores over Cal en route to Poinsettia Bowl MVP honors. The last time these two teams met Urban Meyer was helping Utah run the Panthers into a the ground for a 35-7 win in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as a 14-point favorite. The Utes have moved even further along under Kyle Whittingham with an 11-1 SU mark as favorites against non-conference opponents. However, they're just 4-8 ATS in that stretch. Pittsburgh hasn't had much luck as a non-conference pup with Wannstedt groom his mustache on the sidelines at 1-4 SU, but have gone 3-2 ATS. Utah opened as a one-point home "chalk" at the beginning of the month, but bettors have pushed that to 2 ½. The total has hovered around the initial mark of 51, but has been pushed down to 49 ½. Pittsburgh can be taken for the outright win at a plus-130 return at most betting shops.

Saturday - Connecticut at Michigan (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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All Randy Edsall has done in Storrs is turn the Huskies into a consistent winner. Last year could have been their best at the FBS level had it not been for five losses that were decided by a combined 15 points. Connecticut appears to have the pieces in place this season to make a run at the BCS. Zach Frazer is a proven quarterback that looks to improve on a so-so '09 campaign (1,461 passing yards, 10 TD, 9 INT). And Jordan Todman is poised to stand in the spotlight after picking up 1,188 yards on the ground last year with 14 scores. It's officially "do-or-die" for Rich Rodriguez with the Wolverines. Last year looked good at the start as Michigan opened up with a 5-2 SU record, but promptly dropped the last five games to finish out of a the bowls for a second straight year. A lot of these issues is because of a defense that was 82nd nationally with 393.3 YPG allowed. It doesn't help they gave the ball away 28 times last year. The stoppers should be set a little better going to a 3-3-5 formation, while Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will have a better grasp of the zone-read attack. Connecticut hasn't had much time as a road pup against Big Ten schools, but they did win 14-7 against the Hoosiers back in 2006. When you look at the Huskies as road underdogs over the last five seasons against non-conference foes, you'll notice they are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, covering the spread in the last three games. The Wolverines haven't done so well in their recent home openers with losses to Appalachian State and Utah quickly coming to mind. Yet Michigan has posted a 10-4 SU record in non-conference games as a home "chalk." Their backers, however, have seen them go 4-10 ATS. Michigan has been listed as a three-point home fave, which is a typical line for a game that is too close to call. The defensive issues for the Wolverines does indicate that the total should be high. Many sportsbooks agreed by setting the number at 54. And the gambling public has not moved that number all that much.

Saturday - Washington at BYU (CBS College Sports, 7:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

vs.
This same time last year, we saw the Cougars dole out some punishment on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium. Now BYU will try to avoid that on its home turf by an up-and-coming team. It won't be an easy run of it for the Cougars after losing Max Hall under center, Dennis Pitta at tight end and Harvey Unga in the backfield. That will no doubt hurt a team that ranked 21st by pouring in 427.2 YPG on offense. But there is reason for optimism with Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps showing the goods to replace Hall. In the Pacific Northwest, college football has awakened with a vengeance after Steve Sarkisian's club posted a 5-7 record in his first year. Jake Locker is a big reason why confidence is high for the Huskies. He spurned the NFL Draft (could've been the No. 1 pick overall) to guide Washington to great things. Hard to think that isn't possible after he gained 233.3 YPG through the air in a new offensive gameplan. The oddsmakers are expecting a 30-27 finish in this contest going off of their lines (BYU -3, 57), which isn't that hard to believe. Brigham Young went 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS. If you were to parlay the Cougars cover with the 'over,' you would have gone 6-1. The Huskies are no strangers to being underdogs in non-conference affairs with 11 games falling under that situation over the last five seasons. And to nobody's surprise, Washington is 2-9 SU in that stretch, but 6-4-1 ATS. It happened twice last year under Sarkisian, and they covered both times. BYU leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to backing them as a "chalk" with a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. That includes a 1-3 ATS trend in this spot.

Monday - Boise State vs. Virginia Tech from Landover, Maryland (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

vs.
Arguably the biggest game on the board for the first week of the season takes place at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland between the Broncos and Hokies. Many figure this is Boise State's biggest hurdle in a year that starts with them at No. 3 in the AP Poll. It's hard to argue that point as Kellen Moore guides an offense that returns 11 starters from a unit that averaged 42.2 points per game to lead the nation. It doesn't hurt that he was second only to Tim Tebow in passing efficiency last season (161.7) and was sacked the fewest of any starting QB (5) in the country. The Broncos' defense wasn't a slouch in 2009 either, ranking 14th in total defense (300.2 YPG) and 3rd in takeaways (35). A win in this game gives Boise State a schedule with the toughest game coming on Sept. 25 at home against the Beavers. Virginia Tech comes into this game heavy on offense with Tyrod Taylor leading the way. Taylor did a great job of cutting back on his mistakes (7 picks in '08, 5 picks in '09). He'll have help in the backfield with Darren Evans coming back to help run the ball along with Ryan Williams. The Hokies are coming back thin on defense with just five starters returning. Yet that never has been a problem in Frank Beamer's plug-n-play defensive unit. This may be the first head-to-head meeting between these teams, but Boise State is no stranger to facing national powers. This is a team that has gone 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS when facing non-conference programs since Chris Petersen took over for Dan Hawkins in 2006. While they've had the best attack in the nation, the 'under' has gone 12-5 during those matches. The Hokies haven't played against a WAC school before, which shouldn't be that big of a shock. What they have done against non-conference teams is impressive, going 16-5 SU and 9-12 ATS since 2005. Over its last six games in this spot, Virginia Tech is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Boise State is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 50 ½.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

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The oddsmakers had the Blue Raiders set up as 3 ½-point home favorites for this game before Dwight Dasher couldn't get it through his noggin that you're not supposed to call an all-in bet when drawing to a gut shot straight. Now Minnesota is a three-point road "chalk." Adam Weber is back at QB for the Golden Gophers, but that doesn't help a defense that looks awful. And it doesn't help that Minny has failed to cover the spread in all three season openers under Tim Brewster.

vs.
Things were supposed to be on the rise in Chapel Hill. Now the Tar Heels are crumbling before our eyes as revelations about academic misconduct come to light. North Carolina has stated that players could be suspended as late as kickoff on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Tigers are bringing back just nine starters from last year's club that went 9-4 SU and 5-7-1 ATS. LSU is still wondering if Jordan Jefferson is a competent quarterback to run its offense.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:49 PM

USC at Hawaii

Lane Kiffin inexplicably got his first head-coaching job from Al Davis before the 2007 season. With the Raiders for just 20 games, they posted an abysmal 5-15 record on Kiffin’s watch.

Dismissed just four games into the 2008 campaign, Kiffin had three months to jockey for a head-coaching job at the collegiate level. When Phillip Fulmer’s tenure at Tennessee went stale and the masses up on Rocky Top demanded that he step aside, AD Mike Hamilton pulled the trigger.

In doing so, UT got rid of class, integrity, leadership and experience. In his search for a replacement, Hamilton went looking for youth, flash and excitement. He found it in Kiffin, who sold Hamilton a bill of goods that included a package deal for recruiting ace Ed Orgeron and legendary NFL defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.

Hamilton bit on Kiffin’s pitch hook, line and sinker. He got the boosters to pony up for the nation’s most expensive coaching staff. Hamilton allowed his brash new coach to make a fool of himself and the university by falsely accusing Florida of recruiting violations, while racking up six secondary NCAA violations before coaching his first game for the Volunteers.

During a 7-6 season, Kiffin chirped more about moral victories in close losses to Alabama and Florida than anything of substance. But 14 months into his stay in Knoxville, Kiffin bolted for what he called his ‘dream job’ at USC, leaving behind broken promises and a lingering NCAA investigation.

Shortly after taking over at Heritage Hall, USC got hammered with the worst penalties the NCAA has dealt out since giving SMU the ‘death penalty’ in the early 1980s. The Trojans can’t go to a bowl game in 2010 or 2011, and they’ve had 30 scholarships (10 each for the next three incoming classes) stripped away.

The sanctions prompted OT Seantrel Henderson, who many recruitniks tabbed as the premier player in the 2010 class, to transfer to Miami. Although an appeal of the penalties is still pending, Kiffin and his staff were clearly caught off guard by the magnitude of the sanctions and have a much tougher challenge in front of them in the coming years.

Nevertheless, USC still goes into its Week 1 opener at Hawaii as a heavy favorite. Most books opened the Trojans as 18 ½-point favorites earlier this month, but that number is already up to 21 and rising. As of Tuesday afternoon, the total was 54 at most spots.

USC finished 2009 with a 9-4 straight-up record and an anemic 4-9 against-the-spread ledger. Meanwhile, Hawaii went 6-7 SU and 6-6 ATS.

The Trojans return five starters on each side of the ball, including sophomore quarterback Matt Barkley, who started 12 of 13 games as a true freshman. Barkley threw for 2,735 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he was intercepted 14 times.

USC’s leading rusher (RB Joe McKnight) and receiver (WR Damian Williams) have departed. Senior RB Allen Bradford will step up to take the bulk of the carries after rushing for eight TDs and averaging 5.8 yards per carry last season.

Greg McMackin’s squad has five starters on offense and seven on defense returning. However, a pair of starters on the offensive line will be missing Thursday night. Junior center Matagisila Lefiti is out for the first three games of the season, while junior OG Brett Leonard isn’t expected to return until early October.

Junior Bryant Moniz has been named the starting QB for the Warriors, who won four of their last five games with Moniz under center last year. The lone loss in that stretch came against a Wisconsin team that was playing extremely well down the stretch.

Moniz posted a 14/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. He has his favorite target and one of the WAC’s premier wideouts back in the mix. That would be senior Greg Salas, who had 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs in ’09. Also, senior WR Kealoha Pilares returns after hauling in 66 catches for 690 yards and four TDs last season.

Hawaii owns a 4-4 spread record in eight home underdog situations since McMackin took over for June Jones in ’08. However, the Warriors are 0-3 versus the number as double-digit home ‘dogs.

USC was an atrocious 1-5 ATS as a road favorite last year and has failed to cover the number in nine of its last 12 road ‘chalk’ spots.

These schools met in the 2005 season opener with the Trojans rolling to a 63-17 victory as 36-point home favorites. They have won all six all-time meetings against the Warriors, scoring 60 points or more in the last three encounters.

ESPN will have television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Alabama RB Mark Ingram, will miss this week's opener against San Jose St. after injuring his knee at practice Monday afternoon. Ingram had the knee scoped on Tuesday and will miss at least one game, possibly more. With that said, there's no reason to downgrade the Tide because it has the nation's best back-up RB in Trent Richardson.

--Oregon St. owns a 9-2 spread record in its last 11 games as an underdog. Since 2005, the Beavers have won outright as double-digit 'dogs three times. They are catching 13 1/2 against TCU at Cowboys Stadium on Saturday night.

--Utah is just 2-4 ATS as a single-digit home favorite during Kyle Whittingham’s first five years at the helm. The Utes will host Pitt as three-point home favorites Thursday at 8:30 p.m. Eastern. Versus will have the telecast.

--Pitt senior DE Jabaal Sheard is ‘out’ at Utah due to a suspension. Sheard had 42 tackles, five sacks and five tackles for losses last season. CORRECTION/UPDATE: According to multiple reports Friday morning, Sheard has been upgraded to 'probable' and will most likely play.

--Most books opened Northwestern as a three-point road favorite for its lid-lifter at Vandy, but the number was at five or 5 ½ as of Tuesday afternoon. This line move is probably due to a knee injury sustained by Vandy sophomore RB Warren Norman, who is ‘out’ this week. As a true freshman last year, Norman returned three kickoffs for touchdowns and also rushed for 783 yards and three TDs. He averaged 5.4 YPC on an offense that scored more than 13 points just four times.

--Much of the pregame chatter about personnel for Saturday’s UNC-LSU game has been focused on the expected suspensions for the Tar Heels. However, the Tigers are going to be missing a few players as well. Starting junior center T-Bob Hebert (the son of Bobby, who played QB for the Saints and Falcons) is suspended for an off-season arrest, while back-up WR Chris Tolliver is ‘out’ with a concussion and back-up free safety Karnell Hatcher is ‘out’ with a knee injury.

--Going into this week, there were 15,000 tickets available for the start of the Jimbo Fisher Era at Florida St. In fact, hotels in Tallahassee have a deal for free tickets for those that rent a room for the weekend. Now I know Samford doesn’t exactly get the blood flowing for a Week 1 game, but seriously? This reminds me of when Steve Spurrier was at UF and what he would say to the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi in the week leading up to the Gators going to Doak-Campbell Stadium: (Spurrier twang: “Hey Mikey! You think they’re going to sell it out up there in Tallahassee this week?) Of course, both the ‘Noles and Gators would usually be in the top-five for this showdown.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:50 PM

So. Miss at South Carolina

Thursday, September 2
Southern Mississippi (0-0) at South Carolina (0-0)
7:30 PM, ESPN
Williams-Brice Stadium (grass)
Sports.com Line: South Carolina -13.5 O/U 46

To steal a line from the great wordsmith Yogi Berra, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

No, your eyes do not deceive you. For the third straight year South Carolina will open the college football season on a Thursday night in front of a national television audience on ESPN. The only thing that has changed is the opponent - the past two seasons the Gamecocks faced NC State and this season they welcome the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss to Williams-Brice Stadium.

After last year’s “thrilling” 7-3 victory over the Wolfpack, I’m kind of surprised Spurrier’s boys got invited back to kick off the season but I guess all that money Under Armour spends on ESPN gets them some extra benefits.

Seriously though, with nine starters back, including QB Stephen Garcia, South Carolina should be improved on offense. That said, word out of Columbia is that stud TE Weslye Saunders will miss this game due to a suspension. Spurrier has been mum on the exact details of Saunders' suspension but it’s clear the NFL prospect is in his doghouse and maybe the NCAA’s. While Garcia will miss the skills of Saunders, he has a pair of very talented wideouts in sophomores Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley who should give him plenty of opportunities to throw down the field.

Not that the entire South Carolina attack will be vertical. The Gamecocks can run the ball and will definitely give Southern Miss a taste of the “WildCock” formation where the ultra-talented and athletic sophomore CB Stephon Gilmore takes direct snaps. Also, keep an eye on true freshman RB Marcus Lattimore, who is expected to pay big dividends this season.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves and start gushing about the potential of the SC offense, let’s remember who the opponent is in this game. For those lacking in the history department, it’s important to note that Southern Miss is one of the more decorated programs in college football over the past 15 years or so. The Golden Eagles have 16 straight winning seasons, a streak that only Florida State (33 yrs), Florida (22yrs), and Virginia Tech (17yrs) can best. That’s pretty good company to keep when you are talking college football.

Head coach Larry Fedora, who came to USM a couple years ago after a successful stint as the Offensive Coordinator at Oklahoma State, will look to keep that streak alive in his third season in Hattiesburg. Despite its most famous football alum being QB Bret Favre, the Southern Miss program has been built around a nasty defense. This season should be no different as Fedora will lean on his nine returning starters on defense, including LB Korey Williams, to win ballgames.

On offense, the Golden Eagles only get three starters back but that group includes the talented QB Austin Davis who missed most of last year with a foot injury last season. The junior is back to 100% and ready to add to the 1,200 yards with 10 touchdowns he racked up in just five games last season. Fedora has to be thrilled with the depth he has at QB as backup Martevious Young filled in quite capably in the absence of Davis last season and is a quality insurance policy for 2010.

No matter who is under center for Southern Miss, you can bet they will be looking early and often for WR DeAndre Brown. At 6'6", 230 pounds, the junior wideout is unquestionably one of the more dominating physical presences you will see catching balls on a Saturday or Sunday for that matter and NFL scouts are drooling over his potential. Brown will likely be locked up all night with Gilmore and it will be a great matchup to watch.

Of course, Davis will need time in the pocket in order to throw down the field and with a rebuilt offensive line in front of him, the Southern Miss signal caller could be scrambling quite a bit Thursday night. The play of the USM offensive line against a veteran and talented South Carolina front featuring DT Travian Robertson, Cliff Matthews, Ladi Ajiboye, and Devin Taylor could be the story line that determines this game. If Southern Miss can handle the seven returning starters on South Carolina’s defense, then the Golden Eagles should be able to hang with the home team all night long.

In 2009, Southern Miss was 6-5 ATS with a 3-3 mark on the road, while South Carolina was 7-4 ATS with a 4-2 mark at home.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:51 PM

Thursday's College FB Trends

SOUTHERN MISS at SOUTH CAROLINA...USM is a solid 15-8 vs. the line away from Hattiesburg since ‘07. Note, however, that South Carolina HC Steve Spurrier has won and covered openers the past two seasons and did cover all 3 on line vs. non-SEC foes in reg. season LY, but he is a subpar 3-6 laying 7 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to USM, based on recent trends.

MARSHALL at OHIO STATE...Doc Holliday debut as Marshall HC. Under Mark Snyder, the Thurndering Herd was only 4-10 vs. line as DD visiting dog from ‘05-09. Marshall has also been a decidedly subpar 1-8 vs. the line on the road vs. non-CUSA foes since ‘06. Meanwhile, Ohio State's Jim Tressel is 41-21 vs. the number overall since ‘05, but his numebrs are not quite as compelling laying heavy lumber. as the Buckeyes are only 8-9 laying DDs at the Big Horseshoe since ‘07. Tressel also just 5-5 laying 20 or more since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA STATE...Interest intersectional pattern involving Northern Illinois, which has covered 7 straight as a regular season visitor vs. non-MAC foes. Although the Huskies’ overall spread mark away from home is nothing special the past few yeaers (only 9-14 since ‘07). Iowa State's Paul Rhoads recorded a solid 8-4 mark vs. the line in first season at Cyclone HC last year, including 4-1 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to NIU, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at UTAH...Pitt has posted some positive numbers lately on the road and as a dog for HC Dave Wannstedt, as the Panthers are 9-4 as a dog since ‘07 and 7-3 as a visiting dog that span. Overall, Wannstedt's Pitt is 12-6 overall vs. the spread as a visitor since ‘07. Note that Utah is just 1-4 vs. the line in openers since HC Kyle Whittingham took over in 2005, and the Utes are just 2-5-1 vs. spread against non-MWC foes at Rice-Eccles Stadium since ‘05. Utah is also a modest 5-5 as Salt Lake City chalk the past two years. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at HAWAII...Lane Kiffin makes his debut as Southern Cal HC, and to this point we don't think he has said anything to infuritate Hawaii or Warrior HC Greg McMackin. Note that Hawaii was 0-3 getting DDs at Aloha Stadium LY, and dating back to the June Jones era, Warriors only 1-5 getting DDs in Honolulu since ‘05. The Warriors are also just 3-6 last nine vs. line hosting non-WAC foes. As for Kiffin, his Tennesse team was 2-1 vs. the line laying 20 points or more LY, but note that SC (under Pete Carroll) is just 1-5 its last 6 laying 20 or more away from Coliseum. The Trojans, however, have suffered most of their recent pointspread setbacks in Pac-10 play, as under the departed Carroll they were 9-2 vs. line in their 11 tries vs. non-conference foes. Tech edge-SC, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Tread carefully here, as MTSU will be without suspended startign QB Dwight Dasher, who keyed the Blue Raider renaissance last season. That included MTSU covering its last 7 games in '09. In addition, the Blue Raiders are also 8-3 vs. the numebr their last 11 vs. non-Sun Belt foes. As for Minnesota, note the Golden Gophers have dropped 11 of their last 17 spread decisions since mid ‘08, and are just 3-8 vs. spread in non-conference play under HC Tim Brewster since ‘07. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UAB...The home team has won and covered emphatically the past two years in this series, with UAB winning big 56-29 in ‘09 after FAU scored a 49-34 win the previous year at Fort Lauderdale. Owl HC Howard Schenellenberger, however, has an enduring negative trend as a visitor vs. non-Sun Belt foes, dropping all three such spread decisions last season, and now 1-14 vs. the number his last 15 visiting non-Belt opposition. As for the Blazers, they're actually 4-1 in rare chalk role under HC Neil Callaway since ‘07, although he’s 0-1 laying DDs (no cover laying 11 vs. SMU LY). Tech edge-slight to UAB, based on Schnellenberger's extended woes vs. non-Belt foes on road.

ARIZONA at TOLEDO...Arizona HC Mike Stoops is only 7-12 vs. line as visitor and 2-5 as visiting chalk since ‘07. Stoops also 0-4 vs. line as non-conference visitor since ‘06, and the Cats are just 1-6 against points in that role since ‘02. Arizona also hasn’t covered laying 7 or more on road since a 1998 game at San Diego State.! Meanwhile, Toledo is only 9-16 as dog since ‘07, although not-so- bad 5-4 in that role at the Glass Bowl the past three years. But the Rockets are 7-1 vs. the line at the Glass Bowl vs. non-conference opposition since ‘01 (note that the Ohio State loss was played at Cleveland LY). Tech edge-Toledo, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:52 PM

Study Hall - Week 1

Everyone has had plenty of time to look over every last college football game that Saturday has to offer in the opening week. Yet there are still games out there that will have plenty of us scratching our heads when looking at the numbers. That’s why we’re going to be looking at some of those games from week to week that deserves a closer look by all of us.

So which contests make up the games that make us do a double take? As far as I’m concerned, matchups that see questionable jumps in the spread from when they were originally posted to where they currently sit at the time of writing this piece. The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay has shown us what games have moved the most at his sportsbook.

Some of those moves make sense, at first blush. The Wildcats getting love in Nashville is perfectly understandable give that Vandy’s Robbie Caldwell has been head coach for less than two months when the game kicks off. Alabama’s minor shrinkage no doubt comes from Mark Ingram not being available to play. Oklahoma is widely expected to blow out the Aggies and the same goes for Wisconsin over UNLV.

Cincinnati heading out west to face Fresno State, however, is what makes me do a double take. The Bearcats were posted as 1 ½-point road favorites when the Hilton initially posted this line. Yet Pat Hill’s team will most likely be coming into this affair as a 2 ½-point home “chalk.”

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Chip Chirimbes believes that change in the ranks is why the line is set as such. “Ryan Matthews may not still be at Fresno State, but they still have eight starters coming back on offense. Plus, Cincy is bringing Butch Jones into take over for Brian Kelly. It’s hard to think that Butch Jones has a coaching advantage over the Bulldogs’ Pat Hill.”

While Matthews was won of the best running backs in college last season, he is far from irreplaceable. Take into account that he rushed for 1,808 yards and had 122 receiving yards. Fresno State gained a total of 5,597 yards on the attack in 2009.

Sportsbook.com’s Dave Staley puts the Bulldogs into more perspective, where they are posted as three-point home faves. “(There are) 15 starters returning for Fresno State from a team that went 8-5 last year. Even though Ryan Matthews is now with the Chargers, there is still plenty of firepower on the offense.”

The ‘Dogs have four of their five offensive linemen coming back this year to protect senior quarterback Ryan Colburn. What is a big issue for Fresno State is how he will handle being the main man of the attack. Colburn was never asked to really carry the team at any point last season, reaching above 30 pass attempts just three times. The plus side for him is that he learned to make better decisions, evidenced by the fact Colburn had six interceptions in the first three games of the year and five picks the rest of the way.

Cincinnati holds the edge on the quarterback area with Zach Collaros taking over as a full-time starter. Collaros was called into duty on more than one occasion for Tony Pike in ’09. He completed 75 percent of his passes for 1,434 yards with 10 touchdowns and two picks. Collaros will also have three starters back on the o-line. And if that wasn’t enough, Armon Binns and D.J. Woods are back to provide reliable receiving targets.

Something else that gamblers should consider is how these teams have fared in meaningful games. Collaros guided the Bearcats to strong wins last season over Connecticut and West Virginia in consecutive weeks. You know the last two wins that the Bulldogs have had over BCS schools? Last year against Illinois and a 2007 triumph over Kansas State – two teams that were less than garbage at the time. Yet Fresno State are favored in this game.

“I’m a little surprised that only 29% of the bettors are on the Bearcats in this game,” says Dave Staley. I’m surprised, too.

Cowboys Stadium showcases another game that offers up some interesting discussion as Oregon State takes on the Horned Frogs.

The Beavers fell just short of making the Rose Bowl and ended up getting blown out by BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Now they find themselves posted as 13 ½-point pups in the season opener.

VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Scott Pritchard has taken notice of this number as well. “I like the dog plus the points as Oregon State will be very solid up front on the offensive line.” That’s an important point considering that OSU has four starters back on an o-line that 34th nationally in total offense (410.6 YPG). What that means is Jacquizz Rodgers will get plenty of openings in the Horned Frogs’ defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Beavers are just as strong with eight starters back, four of which do their business in the trenches. This is a Top 50 defensive unit from a year ago. And they were 25th against the run (114.4).

That run defense will be important on Saturday night as it takes on a TCU offense that was fifth pounding the rock with 239.5 rushing YPG. That will help gamblers wanting to take the Horned Frogs as double-digit favorites against a BCS conference foe since they’re 3-0 SU and ATS in that spot.

Yet Pritchard isn’t worried about that considering the dog is quality and getting a lot of points. “I lean on the dog especially if you can catch a 14. It’s very important to shop and find a 14 on this game. Sports betting is as much about finding good numbers as it is about having the right side.”

Almost important as finding a game that has a line you can exploit is locating games that you should avoid at all costs. There’s just such a contest going on in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State is playing host to Washington State.

The Cowboys were initially opened up as 13-point home favorites, but has been pushed up 15 ½ as of Sept. 1. So why was this line set to short to begin with given the disparity between the teams?

“Oklahoma State is in a rebuilding mode and they're switching to a new offense,” says expert handicapper Dave Cokin. “Only eight returning starters and the depth chart on defense has already lost several players counted on to be valuable reserves.”

The most significant moves for the Cowpokes in this game is Brandon Weeden taking over for Zac Robinson under center. He won’t have Dez Bryant to throw to or anyone of that caliber this year on an attack that has three returning starters, which will be switching to a new scheme.

Meanwhile, there is only direction is up for Washington State after ranking in the basement of every important statistical category. 17 starters come back from that team which went 1-11 a year ago. Should that familiarity of players help Wazzu improve? Sure, but Cokin sums up this game best: “This is not a playable game for me, as I'm very reluctant to lay anything significant with rebuilding Cowboys and Wazzou will have to prove to me that they can simply hang in.”

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:53 PM

Arizona at Toledo

Arizona head coach Mike Stoops went into the 2008 campaign on the hot seat. In his first five years of a major rebuilding project, the Wildcats had yet to taste a bowl bid.

Fast forward to the present and Stoops has job security after taking his program to back-to-back bowl games. Not only that, but he has his best chance to send Arizona to the Rose Bowl for the first time in school history. That’s right, the Wildcats are the only Pac-10 program that’s never been to Pasadena.

With Oregon’s problems at the quarterback position and USC out of the Rose Bowl mix, there’s no doubt that the Pac-10 is wide open and right there for the taking.

Stoops and Co. open the 2010 campaign on the road Friday night at The Glass Bowl, facing Toledo from out of the Mid-American Conference. As of early Thursday morning, most books had Arizona favored by 16 with a total of 60 or 60 ½. Not all betting shops are offering money-line prices, but the ones that are have the Rockets available to win outright for a plus-600 return (risk $100 to win $600).

Arizona returns eight starters on offense and four on defense. The Wildcats finished 8-5 straight up and 6-5-1 against the spread in 2009, but they were clubbed 33-0 by Nebraska at the Holiday Bowl.

Junior quarterback Nick Foles, a transfer from Michigan St., turned out to be a serious find as the replacement for Arizona’s all-time leading passer, Willie Tuitama. Foles posted a 19/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first 10 starts of his career.

Foles is one of eight starters returning on offense, including just about all of his skill players with the exception of WR Delashaun Dean, who has transferred after making 42 catches in 2009. But Juron Criner (45 receptions for 582 yards and nine TDs) and David Roberts (43 catches) are back, in addition to William ‘Bug’ Wright (23 catches).

The backfield has plenty of experience as well. Nic Grigsby will be the featured back after he missed five games last year with an injury. Grigsby was averaging 7.2 yards per carry before getting banged up in ’09. In 21 career starts, he has netted 1,857 rushing yards. Keola Antolin will get his share of touches behind Grigsby, too. Antolin rushed for more than 600 yards and had four TDs last season.

If Stoops has a concern about this team, it’s on the defensive side of the ball. However, we should note that defense is his area of coaching expertise. But this until returns just four starters and will be without eight of its 11 leading tacklers from last year.

Tim Beckman’s first team at Toledo went 5-7 both SU and ATS, losing four of their last five games both SU and ATS. As a home underdog on Beckman’s watch, the Rockets twice won outright against Colorado and Northern Illinois.

Toledo bring back six starters on each side of the ball. QB Aaron Opelt has run out of eligibility and sophomore Austin Dantin beat out Alex Pettee for the starting job in August.

Dantin made three starts as a true freshman, completing 79-of-119 attempts (66.4%) for 962 yards with four touchdown passes and four interceptions. He is a product of Tallahassee Leon High School, the same program that produced former NFL players like Tony Lomack, Brad Culpepper, Terry Mickens, Clifford Charlton and Tamarick Vanover.

Dantin might have the best WR in the MAC in Eric Page, a sophomore who had more receptions and receiving yards that any other freshman wideout last season. Page hauled in 82 receptions for 1,159 yards and seven touchdowns.

Morgan Williams will get the bulk of the work on the ground for Toledo. Williams was a third-team All-MAC selection as a redshirt freshman in ’08, rushing for more than 1,000 yards and averaging 6.0 YPC. However, injuries slowed him down last year when he got just a pair of starts and 74 carries. Williams is hoping to return to the form he showed in ’08.

The ‘under’ cashed at a 6-1 clip for Arizona in its last seven of games of last season.

Arizona has only been a road favorite seven times in Stoops’ six previous years on the job. The Wildcats are 2-4-1 ATS in those seven situations.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--After this season-opening road game at Toledo, Arizona won’t go on the road again until an Oct. 16 trip to Washington St. The Wildcats have four straight home games against The Citadel, Iowa, California and Oregon St., not to mention an open date on Oct. 2.

--Toledo cornerback Daxton Swanson enjoyed an excellent freshman year last season, making 31 tackles and leading the team in passes broken up with seven. However, after off-season shoulder surgery, Swanson didn’t report to training camp and will apparently transfer to another school.

--Toledo has thrived when hosting BCS schools since 2001. In fact, the Rockets have won five of six games outright with the lone loss coming to Purdue in 2007. They demolished Colorado by a 54-38 count on ESPN in a Friday game last year that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. They also knocked off Kansas in double overtime back in ’06. I remember because I was on the Jayhawks plus 4 ½, only to suffer a chafe loss after a pair of extra sessions.

--UNC has announced the indefinitely suspension of DE Marvin Austin, who was a preseason All-American candidate. A slew of media outlets, including VegasInsider.com, had been expecting this suspension along with several others to key defensive players for the Tar Heels. Nothing had been announced (other than Austin) as of early Thursday afternoon, but more suspensions are expected. In fact, ESPN’s Joe Schad reported late Wednesday night that UNC might be without as many as 16 total players against LSU on Saturday night at the Georgia Dome.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-02-2010, 05:56 PM

On the Strip - Betting Notes

The College Football season kicks off this Thursday night and runs through Monday’s big Boise State - Virginia Tech game. Every ranked team will be in action with six of them squaring off against each other. Between the mascots, the marching bands, the student body and the pageantry that college football brings to the sporting table, there isn’t much else that can match it from an excitement level. Every game means something; for the top flight programs, a loss can devastate the season. For the up and coming program, a loss can stunt their bowl chances. Every school has a different agenda and it all plays out well as somewhat of a drama for each over the course of the year.

For the six ranked teams that face off against each other this week, it seems illogical for them to plunge into the season this early against such tough competition. TCU and Boise State have had some credibility issues the last few seasons because of their conference affiliations and playing good teams early is understandable, but with the way the BCS is structured with the power conference teams having an edge, all any of those teams have to do is just beat up on each other within their conference and win out. It makes no sense for a team like LSU to hurt their chances this early in the year by losing to a good North Carolina team.

The team that will be interesting to watch this season is USC, which will be ineligible for a bowl. How will this team respond knowing that there is no Championship carrot dangling in front of them like years past to keep them focused and motivated. They are ranked No. 14 in the AP poll and climbing the ladder could serve as some motivation, but the seniors and juniors on this squad who know they will never play in a BCS title game have to be a bit torn about their feelings. What’s worse for these kids is that the cool, swanky, surfer guy coach who recruited them isn’t even going along for the ride with them; he bailed, and now the get Lane Kiffin who has shown that he has no loyalty to anything. It’s a tough up hill road for the men of Troy to climb and it begins in Hawaii Thursday where USC is a 21-point favorite. It would be surprising to see Hawaii with it’s depleted offensive line be able to stay within three touchdowns, even with USC’s unknown psyche.

Here in Las Vegas, we’ll all get the pleasure of welcoming the folks of Wisconsin who play UNLV Saturday night. There will be around 15,000 Badger fans toiling around the city this weekend and I’ve never seen a more likable bunch from any school. The Wisky fans are some of the most pleasant down to earth people and it’s a pleasure to have them here. As for the game, the Rebels are 21-point home underdogs with hopes of shocking the college football world. The Las Vegas sports books are hoping that they do because all the early action has been on Wisconsin and by game time, with many of the locals showing little faith in their team, they are bound to lay the points as well.

There are lots of big spreads this week due to the mismatches. Ohio State is a 29 ½-point favorite at home against Marshall. Last year the Buckeyes let a good Navy team sneak up on them and almost lost outright. Don’t look for that to occur again as they should win by 40 over Marshall. Texas and Florida start new eras with new quarterbacks, but the spread still reflects as if Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow were playing. Texas laying 29 at Rice and Florida 36 at home against Miami-Ohio seems a little high with new captains piloting the ship for the first time. I definitely couldn't lay the points with these two, but wouldn't be happy about taking the points either.

I’ll be looking for a much improved UCLA squad this year with a nasty new defensive unit that should stifle opposing teams' offenses all season. UCLA opened a 2-point road favorite, but Kansas State quickly shot up to a 2 ½-point favorite upon news that UCLA starting quarterback Kevin Prince may not play. Sophomore Richard Brehaut has been taking all the snaps in practice the last two weeks and will be ready if Prince can’t go. This is one of those games where I’m going with the coach in their opener. Rick Neuheisel gets his teams fired up for the openers everywhere he’s been and has his team believing they can beat anyone. He took a less talented squad to Tennessee last year and won in a very tough environment, and should do the same this week.

Reminder, this week is the last chance to enter the college football contests at LeRoy’s and Station Casinos. Also, if looking to bet college football games that aren’t part of the rotation, check out the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book the day before the game and they’ll have all the “Extra” added games on the board.

Be sure to check every Thursday night throughout the season where I'll give all the major line moves throughout Las Vegas sports books with explanations on why.

**Kaptain** · 09-02-2010, 06:41 PM

gl today bum AND THIS SEASON........let's kick some ass together my man....

always appreciate your input/plays

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