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**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2010, 04:45 PM

MLB reigns on last football-less Monday of the year

As tonight marks the final Monday night of the year without football, baseball takes center stage. Monday features a full slate of National League action and only four American League teams have the night off. But other than Roy Halladay (10:10 p.m. EDT at LAD), the night is void of ace starters.
So let’s shift our focus to division leaders expected to win big tonight. Below are the three Monday night matchups featuring division leaders favored by –150 or more.

Milwaukee (62-68) at Cincinnati (75-55), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Cincinnati -155, Milwaukee +135 Total: 9
The Reds own a five-game lead in the NL Central as they open up a three-game set with Milwaukee on Monday. The pitching matchup is Randy Wolf (10-10, 4.74 ERA) against Homer Bailey (3-2, 4.83 ERA).

Since getting blasted for 12 runs and 13 hits at Pittsburgh on July 21, Wolf has pitched well in his last six outings (3-1, 3.23 ERA). In 17 career starts against the Reds, Wolf is 9-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Wolf’s teams have won in his last six starts against Cincinnati, and Wolf has been excellent over this span (4-0, 2.20 ERA, 42 K, 7 BB).

Bailey was roughed up in his last start in San Francisco (5.1 IP, 9 H, 5 ER) and has been awful in five night starts this season (7.09 ERA, 1.80 WHIP). The Reds are 5-1 in Bailey’s six home starts this year, in spite of Bailey who has a 5.67 home ERA.

These are enough reasons to take a chance on the underdog Brewers. The FoxSheets also likes Wolf and the Brew Crew in this one:

WOLF is 27-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997 (Team's Record). The average score was WOLF 5.2, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

New York Mets (65-65) at Atlanta (75-55), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Atlanta –200, New York +170 Total: 8
The Braves kept their NL East lead over Philadelphia at two games Sunday as Brian McCann’s walk-off HR capped a five-run comeback (ATL trailed 6-1 in the 8th inning). Tonight Atlanta opens up a four-game series with the Mets. Pat Misch (0-3, 3.50 ERA) takes the hill for New York and Jair Jurrjens (5-4, 4.36 ERA) gets the start for heavily-favored Atlanta.

Misch’s is 3-for-3 in quality starts this year, but has no wins to show for it. But he certainly wasn’t a quality pitcher in both career starts against the Braves last September. Misch allowed 12 ER, 15 hits, and 4 HR in just 6.1 innings.

Jurrjens, on the other hand, has had great success against New York (6-2, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in nine career starts). He has also been lights out at home this year, posting a 5-0 record with a 1.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts at Turner Field, all Braves wins.

It’s difficult to play a team favored by so much against a decent club, but this FoxSheets trend backs the Braves.

Play Against - Any team (NY METS) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20)-NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL). (159-110 since 1997.) (59.1%, +62.9 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas (73-57) at Kansas City (55-75), 8:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Texas –190, Kansas City +165 Total: 9
Texas is a ho-hum 6-8 in its last 14 games, but it still carries a 7.5-game lead in the AL West over Oakland through Sunday. Tonight the Rangers start their 10-game road trip with a visit to Kansas City. C.J. Wilson (13-5, 3.02) and Kyle Davies (6-8, 5.41 ERA) are the starters in this one.

Contrary to the opening paragraph, Wilson IS the ace of the Rangers staff, but would not be the best pitcher on most major-league teams. The Rangers are 20-6 (+12.6 Units) this season, including eight straight wins, when Wilson takes the hill. He has also had success away from Arlington, posting a 2.87 ERA in 10 road starts. Texas is 7-3 in these starts.

Davies would not be the ace for most Triple-A teams. He has just two wins in his last 15 starts, and allowed 12 hits and seven runs in his last start at Detroit. His career against Texas has also been dreadful. In six starts against the Rangers, Davies has a 7.62 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. KC has lost all six of these contests.

This FoxSheets stat backs Wilson and the Rangers.

WILSON is 20-4 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season (Team's Record). The average score was WILSON 5.0, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2010, 04:47 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

Cardinals at Astros – The Astros are 6-0 since June 06, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $620.

Mets at Braves – The Mets are 6-0 since August 10, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $665. The Mets are 0-6 since June 19, 2010 as a road dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since May 28, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs win for a net profit of $900.

Pirates at Cubs – The Pirates are 0-15 since July 06, 2010 as a road dog vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1500 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since May 04, 2010 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1025 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since August 25, 2009 when Carlos Zambrano starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $870 when playing against.

Padres at Diamondbacks – The Padres are 6-0 since April 10, 2010 after being shutout for a net profit of $730. The Diamondbacks are 0-8 since May 05, 2010 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games for a net profit of $815 when playing against.

Phillies at Dodgers – The Phillies are 9-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts after giving up no walks for a net profit of $900. The Phillies are 6-0 since June 23, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $600.

Rockies at Giants – The Rockies are 0-8 since May 07, 2010 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $935 when playing against. The Giants are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $685 when playing against.

White Sox at Indians – The White Sox are 7-0 since April 20, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $770. The Indians are 6-0 since June 29, 2010 as a home dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $715.

Angels at Mariners - The Angels are 5-0 since June 02, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $600. The Mariners are 0-9 since April 09, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Nationals at Marlins – The Nationals are 0-6 since May 25, 2010 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Rays – The Blue Jays are 0-10 since April 26, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Rays are 6-0 since July 05, 2010 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $600.

Brewers at Reds – The Reds are 7-0 since July 24, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $715. The Reds are 6-0 since August 28, 2009 when Homer Bailey starts at home after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $680.

Rangers at Royals – The Rangers are 8-0 since June 20, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts as a 140+ favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $800. The Royals are 7-0 since April 26, 2010 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $795.

Athletics at Yankees – The Yankees are 10-0 since May 15, 2009 as a favorite after a one run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2010, 04:48 PM

Monday Tips

The Monday baseball card wraps up late with four games out west. The Angels and Mariners throw out their respective young guns on the mound, while the Rockies and Giants begin a crucial series in San Francisco. We'll start with a rematch of the NLCS from the last two seasons as Philadelphia continues its road trip through Southern California.

Phillies at Dodgers - 10:10 PM EST

Los Angeles has had plenty of problems trying to figure out Philadelphia in the postseason, getting eliminated by the Phillies in the 2008 and 2009 NLCS. Philadelphia looks to grab its second straight series after knocking off San Diego as the Phils send out their ace to the mound.

Roy Halladay (16-9, 2.22 ERA) has been fantastic over the last two months, as Philadelphia is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. Phillies' backers were burned in his last outing against the Astros, falling as a $3.40 'chalk' in a 3-2 home setback of Philadelphia's miserable series versus Houston. Halladay is always going to be laying big numbers, but since the start of July, the former Cy Young Award winner has been listed as a $1.70 favorite or higher in each of his previous 10 outings. The right-hander hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2007 as a member of the Blue Jays, beating Los Angeles twice that season.

The Dodgers counter with Hiroki Kuroda (9-11, 3.56 ERA), who is coming off a victory in his last start at Milwaukee. Kuroda gave up four earned runs in seven innings as the Dodgers rallied for a 5-4 triumph, his first road win since June 15 at Cincinnati. The 35-year old has been extremely consistent lately, tossing seven innings in each of his last four outings. Since beating the Astros on May 18, the Dodgers are 1-5 in Kuroda's previous six starts after they won his in his last trip to the mound.

The Phillies took two of three from the Dodgers at home earlier this month, including a monstrous comeback from 9-2 down in the series finale to stun Los Angeles, 10-9. The Dodgers are just 2-4 in their last six home series openers.

Angels at Mariners - 10:10 PM EST

Two teams that are just counting down until the end of the regular season meet in Seattle as the Halos and M's begin a three-game series at Safeco Field. The Angels were tripped up by the last-place Orioles at home, while the Mariners lost another home series to the Twins.

Ervin Santana (13-9, 4.13 ERA) had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 10-3 drubbing to the Rays his last time out. Santana allowed six earned runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings, the first time in seven starts in which the Angels scored less than six runs. The right-hander has been solid in three of his previous four road outings, delivering three quality starts except for a 9-7 loss at Baltimore in which he gave up all nine runs. The Angels are 1-2 in Santana's three starts against the Mariners this season, including an 11-2 thrashing of the M's on June 5.

Seattle sends out David Pauley (2-5, 4.02 ERA), who tries to rebound from a loss at Boston in his last outing. Pauley had picked up back-to-back road underdog wins at Baltimore and Cleveland in his previous two starts, as the righty looks for his first home victory this season. The 27-year old has seen his share of tough opponents stroll into Safeco Field, already facing the Red Sox, Yankees, and White Sox at home.

The Angels own a 10-3 advantage over the Mariners this season, including a 5-1 mark in Seattle. Los Angeles is 1-4 in its last five road series openers, while Seattle is 3-1 in its previous four home series openers.

Rockies at Giants - 10:15 PM EST

San Francisco had hit the skids recently, dropping three straight as it begins a large three-game set against Colorado. The Rockies are set to make their customary late-season run by winning five of six, including the gargantuan nine-run rally against the Braves last Wednesday. Colorado sits 4 ½ games behind Philadelphia in the NL Wild Card race, while San Francisco is 1 ½ out of the lead.

The Giants try to stop the bleeding with southpaw Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.67 ERA) toeing the rubber. Sanchez registered a no-decision against the Reds in his last start, lasting 4.1 innings in a 16-5 whooping of Cincinnati. That blowout by San Francisco was a nice change for Sanchez, who had been involved in three one-run decisions in his previous three home outings (1-2). Sanchez was spectacular in his last start against Colorado, scattering three hits in six scoreless innings of a 10-0 shutout on August 3.

Jorge De La Rosa (5-4, 4.54 ERA) silenced the Braves' bats last Tuesday in a 5-2 home victory, giving up six hits and two earned runs in seven innings. The Colorado left-hander is winless in his previous four road starts, while the Rockies have plated two runs or less three times. The Rockies are a perfect 7-0 in De La Rosa's seven career starts against the Giants, including three stellar outings at AT&T Park.

Colorado has struggled in road series openers by going 5-16, including seven straight losses in this situation. The 'over' has profited for the Giants at home recently, cashing in eight of the previous 11 contests.

**Udog** · 08-30-2010, 05:29 PM

All day long, I've been thinking Jays/Rays under sounded like a good play. I see you think that's the way it plays, too. I think I'll put a little nibble on it. Thanks, Bum! Good luck tonight!

I think I might join you on those Brewers, too.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2010, 06:21 PM

UDOG......well good luck to us..........August hasn't been kind to me....so lets hope the last two days of the month will be BIG Positive days to end a dreadful month.......

**tech fan** · 08-30-2010, 08:07 PM

Good luck buddy this month has not been great to me either.Alot of favorites have covered it seems like to me

**Udog** · 08-30-2010, 10:22 PM

Wow! We need some pitching now! The Reds just got the leadoff hitter aboard with 1 out, representing the winning run, and Votto is at the plate!

**Udog** · 08-30-2010, 10:24 PM

Whew! Votto out on a long fly and the runner is held at first!

**Udog** · 08-30-2010, 10:26 PM

Oh, brother! Rolen walks and the winning run is on second!

**Udog** · 08-30-2010, 10:30 PM

Yessir! Miguel Cairo strikes out and we're in extra innings, alive and well!

I need a beer.

**Udog** · 08-31-2010, 08:28 AM

Well, once again, Homer Bailey's luck is incredible! If he were pitching for any lesser a lineup, he wouldn't have a win.

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