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**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2010, 01:16 AM

Friday Tips

The final Friday of August is here, as teams head down the stretch in the baseball season. Even with college football starting next week and NFL preseason in full tilt, there is plenty still to be figured out around the Major League Baseball pennant races. The American League features three key contests which involve a squad looking to make a late run. We'll start with the rematch of the 2008 ALCS at Tropicana Field between Boston and Tampa Bay.

Red Sox at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

These AL East rivals meet six more times before the end of the regular season, starting with a crucial three-game set at the Trop. The Sox come to the Sunshine State after taking two of three from the Mariners, while the Rays return home from a 4-3 West Coast trip. Tampa Bay owns a 5 ½-game lead over Boston in both the AL Wild Card and AL East race, as each team sends out their southpaw ace in the series opener.

David Price (15-5, 2.97 ERA) has been money all season, especially at home. The Rays' lefty is 7-1 in 11 starts at the Trop, while losing once at home since the start of June. Price continues to get solid run support, with the Rays averaging nearly 4.9 runs/game in his last eight outings. Tampa Bay owns a 2-1 record in Price's three career starts against the Red Sox, including a 6-4 victory in early July, striking out 10 in 7.2 innings of work.

The Sox counter with Jon Lester (13-8, 3.26 ERA), who received an extra day of rest after getting scratched on Wednesday against Seattle. Lester would like to erase the memory of getting racked by Toronto in his last start, allowing nine earned runs in just two innings of a 16-2 thumping. That outing was in stark contrast to the consecutive road wins over the Rangers and Yankees in which Lester didn't give up a run against those division leaders. Boston is just 2-5 in Lester's seven starts since the All-Star Break, but the southpaw has pitched well at Tropicana Field. Lester is 2-0 in his last two starts in St. Pete, yielding eight hits and two earned runs, including a scoreless one-hit effort on May 25.

Tampa Bay leads the season series, 8-4 after pulling off a home sweep in early July. Out of their four series this season, three have ended in sweeps, including Boston's broom job of a three-game set in late May at the Trop.

Athletics at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

Texas is coming off an impressive series victory over Minnesota in Arlington, as the Rangers continue their homestand against the A's. Oakland is probably not going to catch Texas in the AL West, sitting 8 ½ games back with five weeks to go. The Rangers look to keep up their solid pitching with one of their young guns taking the mound in the series opener.

Tommy Hunter (10-2, 3.68 ERA) rebounded from a pair of poor starts to beat the Orioles his last time out, allowing five hits and three earned runs in eight innings. That was a nice improvement from the combined 10 hits and eight earned runs given up in just six innings against the Red Sox and Rays. Hunter is unbeaten in six home decisions, as the Rangers are beating opponents by 3.5 runs/game in his seven starts in Arlington. The right-hander is seeing the A's for the first time this season after Texas beat Oakland in his three starts in 2009.

The A's are just 2-7 in their last nine away games against teams above .500, while winning four of their previous five road series versus below .500 squads. Brett Anderson (3-4, 2.86 ERA) has pitched well lately, but has no victories to show for it. The Oakland southpaw has allowed five earned runs in his previous three starts, as the A's have plated just five runs in three defeats. The A's went 2-2 in Anderson's four starts against the Rangers in 2009, but both losses came in Arlington, including a 14-1 setback last May.

These two teams have split 12 meetings this season, while the Rangers are 4-2 in six home matchups. The A's perform their worst in series openers, owning a 16-25 mark in Game 1's of a series. On the flip side, Texas has won five straight home series openers since the All-Star Break.

Yankees at White Sox - 8:15 PM EST

Chicago is quickly falling out of the AL Central race, sitting 3 ½ games behind Minnesota, as the Sox are on a 5-11 slide over the last two weeks. Ozzie Guillen's team hosts the Yankees, as New York begins Friday's action tied atop the AL East with Tampa Bay.

The Sox turn to veteran Freddy Garcia (10-5, 5.08 ERA), who has been miserable over his last three starts. Garcia allowed 15 earned runs and 22 hits in three losses to the Twins, Royals, and Tigers, while his home ERA spiked to 4.88. The one constant for Garcia since the All-Star Break is seven consecutive 'overs,' with at least ten runs scored in each of those contests. Garcia lost in the Bronx as a $2.10 underdog in late April, 6-4, as the righty tossed six innings and allowed four earned runs.

A.J. Burnett (9-11, 4.80 ERA) has had problems with consistency by failing to string together three consecutive quality starts this season. To top it off, Burnett is winless in four August outings, while the Bombers have been shut out in his last two starts. Five of Burnett's last six starts have finished 'under' the total, but it's tough to anticipate which Yankees' lineup will show up for the right-hander. Burnett was lit up in his last trip to the South Side, giving up 10 hits and seven earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 14-4 drubbing last August.

The Yankees and White Sox played to three 'overs' in the Bronx earlier this season, while the Bombers took two of the three meetings. Chicago claimed three of four matchups last season on the South Side, including three 'overs.'

**jt4545** · 08-27-2010, 08:55 AM

Thanks star and good luck

**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2010, 05:27 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/27-8/29

The final full weekend of August baseball is upon us, and for bettors, that is a fairly important benchmark, since typically, prices for favorites start to rise significantly at this point in the year. We saw it already a few times this past week in some mismatched series’. Savvy handicappers have to recognize these spots where the “chalk” may or may not be worth your betting dollar anymore. While they are typically the team in the must-win scenario, no one ever gets ahead by paying too much for something. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this weekend’s action to see where the value may actually be, and also reveal our list of Top ******* Power Trends for you to consider in your wagering.

Four of baseball’s six divisions go into the weekend with a four-game or less separation for the top spot. The only teams with more comfortable leads to play with over the final month are Texas, who is 8.5 games up on Oakland in the A.L. West, and San Diego, who leads San Francisco by 6 games in the N.L. West. Otherwise, you’d have to conclude that we’re all in for some exciting September races. That can be viewed two ways by a bettor of course. For one, you have the chance to bet on some high stakes games the rest of the way, a month of playoff tune-ups if you will. For two, the games involving contenders and non-contenders can often show over-inflated lines. Let’s see what we have to choose from this weekend.

In the National League, only one of the eight series’ matches two postseason contenders against one another, and it is a great series. Philadelphia, who is 3-games under .500 on the road and trails the Braves in the East by that same amount, heads to San Diego to take on the red-hot Padres, who have been nearly unbeatable at home. This series figures to show some stellar pitching matchups, starting with the opener featuring Roy Oswalt and Mat Latos. The Phils are also looking up in the wildcard standings right now but trail the Giants by just a half-game.

The rest of the N.L. slate featuring playoff contenders are series’ that are candidates for potential over-pricing. The Cardinals will be in Washington and expected to be sizeable favorites in all three games. However, note that St. Louis is just 3-8 in its L11 games and already lost the series opener on Thursday. The Reds are hosting the Cubs, and returning home for the first time after a successful 6-3 West coast trip. The Cubs played well this week in Washington but are still 20-games under .500 and have begun rebuilding. The Braves, off a sweep at the hands of Colorado, play host to the pesky Marlins, whom they’ve had a competitive rivalry with over the last few years. Florida is hot, 7-2 in its L9 games. Finally, the Giants will be at home hosting the Diamondbacks, who are an ugly 20-42 on the road, including 0-3 in San Francisco this season.

The American League features one huge high profile series, and it could be do or die for the Red Sox in that matchup, as they take to the road in Tampa. Boston is 5.5-games back of both the A.L. East and wildcard leads heading into the weekend, but needs to improve its 4-8 record versus the Rays. Boston could reduce those deficits over the next 13 days. After this series ends Sunday, the Red Sox and Rays will meet for the final time in the regular season from Sept. 6-8 at Fenway Park.

While that series is going on, the Rays will have their eye on the scoreboard and what is happening in Chicago, where the White Sox will be hosting the Yankees. New York is deadlocked with Tampa atop the East and for the league’s best overall mark, however, the series is just as important, or perhaps even more important to the Sox, who trail the Twins by 3.5-games in the Central. Minnesota is in Seattle, so it clearly has the edge on paper this weekend. Finally, in the A.L. West, Texas puts its 8.5-game lead on the line when it hosts the A’s, its closest competitor. This could be the last gasp for Oakland in 2010.

It figures to be a great weekend of playoff-like baseball. Here’s a look at the Top ******* Power Trends that will impact the action.

ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON

ST LOUIS is 2-11 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)

CHICAGO CUBS at CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI is 21-6 (+14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 6.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)

HOUSTON at NY METS

NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 3.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 3*)

FLORIDA at ATLANTA

FLORIDA is 17-8 (+10.3 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 21-10 OVER (+10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.9, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)

LA DODGERS at COLORADO

COLORADO is 15-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game this season. The average score was COLORADO 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO is 22-12 (+11.6 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.6, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO

ARIZONA is 17-8 OVER (+8.4 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.5, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at TORONTO

DETROIT is 20-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.9, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 83-128 (-37.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

BOSTON at TAMPA BAY

BOSTON is 7-24 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.6, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 2*)

OAKLAND at TEXAS

OAKLAND is 14-5 UNDER (+8.6 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

NY YANKEES at CHI WHITE SOX

CHI WHITE SOX are 34-23 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS

BALTIMORE is 10-30 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at SEATTLE

MINNESOTA is 44-25 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2010, 05:28 PM

Redskins to start Grossman for McNabb against Jets

Washington (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1), Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: New York -4.5 Total: 35
After an impressive 42-17 victory over the Bills in their opener, the Redskins were humbled by their neighbors from Baltimore, 23-3, last week. Donovan McNabb completed just 11-of-26 throws against the Ravens and was intercepted once. The Skins managed just 25 yards on the ground and allowed Baltimore to rush for 143 yards.
McNabb will sit out the game against the Jets because of an ankle injury, meaning backup quarterback Rex Grossman will start and likely play into the third quarter. You've got to believe that Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be licking his chops over the prospect of sending blitz packages at Grossman with Gang Green's first-team defensive unit.

The Jets failed to find the end zone in a 9-3 win over the Panthers, gaining just 112 yards of total offense. Mark Sanchez completed 5-of-10 passes for a measly 12 yards. Fortunately for the Jets, they only allowed 175 yards and forced 5 turnovers.

The Redskins should have a tough time scoring this week facing the vaunted Jets defense. FoxSheets suggest further trouble for the Redskins. WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. The average score was WASHINGTON 12.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2010, 05:29 PM

Preseason betting trend favors Dolphins over Falcons

Atlanta (1-1) at Miami (2-0), Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: EVEN Total: 37.5
The Falcons’ first-team offense has yet to find the end zone through two preseason games, settling for a pair of FGs, one in each game. Third-year QB Matt Ryan has completed 11-of-19 passes for 110 yards without throwing a pick. Michael Turner has performed well in his limited carries, gaining 61 yards on 12 rushes (5.1 avg).
Chad Henne rebounded from a poor performance in the Dolphins’ opener (5-11, 19 yds), going 11-for-14 for 151 yards and 2 TD in Miami’s 27-26 win over the Jaguars. Henne played well into the second quarter, connecting with TE Anthony Fasano on TD passes of 55 and 11 yards. Veteran backup Chad Pennington completed 3-of-4 passes in limited action, including a 10-yard TD pass to Ronnie Brown.

Miami gets the home-field edge playing outdoors on grass against a climate-controlled dome team. FoxSheets also show: Play On - Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the last two weeks of the preseason. (75-39 since 1993.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-27-2010, 05:30 PM

Stage set for a shootout between Chargers and Saints

San Diego (1-1) at New Orleans (1-1), Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: New Orleans -3 Total: 42.5
The third preseason game is traditionally when the starters see the majority of the action. That’s expected to be the case when the Saints host the Chargers on Friday night in an intriguing matchup that will be nationally televised on CBS. After posting a 25-10 win over the Bears, the Chargers dropped a 16-14 decision to the Cowboys in their second preseason outing. Philip Rivers was 11-for-15 for 125 yards and an INT, while adding a rushing TD. Billy Volek and Jonathan Crompton combined to go 8-for-18 for 102 yards and a pick in relief of Rivers.
The Saints bounced back from their opening loss to the Patriots by routing the Texans 38-20. Drew Brees led a pair of TD drives, capping off the second one with a 1-yard TD of his own. Chase Daniel performed well in relief, completing 15-of-21 passes for 182 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. The defending Super Bowl champs also piled up 198 yards on the ground.

Give the nod to the Saints at home, but expect both offenses to light up the scoreboard. Consider this from the FoxSheets. SAN DIEGO is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after allowing 200 or less total yards in its previous game since 1993. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.3, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*).

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