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**StarDust Bum** · 08-26-2010, 11:33 PM

Rams a solid bet to cover big preseason spread

St. Louis (1-1) at New England (2-0), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: New England -7.5 Total: 37.5
Coming off a pair of rough performances, number one overall pick Sam Bradford is expected to get the start at QB for the Rams due to thumb and elbow injuries to starter A.J. Feeley. Bradford has completed just 44 percent (12-27) of his passes so far and has yet to find the end zone. On the bright side, he has not thrown a pick either.
The Patriots have displayed a balanced run-pass attack in winning their first two preseason games over the Saints and the Falcons. Veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris both topped 50 yards against the Falcons and both scored on TD runs of 20 yards or more. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a TD to rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski also caught a TD pass courtesy of backup QB Brian Hoyer.

The Patriots are an obvious favorite in this matchup, but give the Rams a shot at covering. Take a look at this from FoxSheets:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in August games. (50-24 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-26-2010, 11:34 PM

Colts still looking for first win of 2010 preseason

Indianapolis (0-2) at Green Bay (1-1), Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Green Bay -3.5 Total: 44
The Colts travel to Green Bay Thursday night still looking for their first win of the preseason. Peyton Manning played five series and led the Colts to a pair of TD (one rush, one pass) in the first quarter of their 34-21 loss to the Bills last Thursday, but also had an INT returned 78 yards for a score. The Colts D surrendered a pair of long first-quarter scores: a 31-yard run and a 70-yard pass. Backup Curtis Painter bounced back from a dismal opener to complete 5-of-6 passes for 97 yards, including a 43-yard TD strike to Taj Smith.
The Packers dropped their preseason opener to the Browns 27-24, but bounced back to beat the Seahawks by the same score in their second game. Through two games, Aaron Rodgers is already in midseason form, having completed 20-of-24 attempts for 275 yards and 3 TD without an INT. Backup Matt Flynn has not been as sharp, connecting on 19-of- 35 for 199 yards and 2 INT without throwing a TD. He’s also been sacked three times to Rodgers’ none.

It’s difficult to think the Colts would go winless in the preseason. Consider this from FoxSheets:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - winless in the preseason. (80-42 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.6%, +33.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-26-2010, 11:37 PM

Red Flags and False Alarms

It happens every summer. Call it the "preseason syndrome." Pro football teams throwing curveballs in August, with fans wondering if they should take some the on and off-field summer developments seriously, or not.

What all can agree upon is that results of NFL preseason games mean nothing once the regular season begins. But some of the issues surfacing in exhibition play are not completely meaningless. Indeed, in many past campaigns they have foretold upcoming fortunes, as well as indicators of potential strengths and weaknesses for teams.

It was not meaningless a summer ago for squads such as the Bills and Bucs to go through some real upheaval. In Buffalo, HC Dick Jauron dismissed offensive coordinator Turk Schonert in August; Jauron himself walked the plank later in the regular season, as the Bills missed the postseason by a wide margin once more. Meanwhile, new Tampa Bay HC Raheem Morris dismissed his newly-hired o.c., Jeff Jagodzinski, in preseason, indicating some real instability in the ‘09 Bucs foundation. The Tampa Bay attack proceeded to struggle mightily, and for a time it seemed as if the Bucs might threaten their 1976 predecessors, as well as the 2008 Lions, and post the big donut in the win column. For good measure, Morris eventually dismissed his new defensive coordinator, Jim Bates, as well, as Tampa Bay stumbled home at a poor 3-13. In the cases of both the Bills and Buccaneers, those preseason developments presaged similar problems in the regular season. On the other hand, the Rams generally impressed last summer for new HC Steve Spagnuolo, winning 3 of 4 games. But as soon as the regular season commenced, all of that success was forgotten, as St. Louis labored to a 1-15 record.

What are we learning during the 2010 preseason? We haven’t seen any coaches fire their coordinators (at least not yet), but there are no shortage of potential storylines. As always, it’s up to us to figure out if these are just false alarms, or red flags. Following is a quick look at such situations as we move into the third weekend of preseason action.

Albert Haynesworth vs. Mike Shananan in Washington. When an NFL storyline endures through several news cycles during the summer, it is often an indicator of some deeper issues. Such appears to be the case in Washington. The Haynesworth controversy in D.C. was simmering all offseason as big Albert hinted at a holdout, but things did not seem to improve even after he reported to camp. New coach Shanahan has drawn his line in the sand for Haynesworth, indicating that reputation alone is not going to guarantee playing time for the high-profile DT. Keep in mind that Shanahan is notorious for laying down the gauntlet during the summer; Broncos fans might recall how the Shan suspected that QB Bubby Brister was perhaps a bit too cool and comfy in his role as John Elway’s successor in the summer of 1999. Shanahan, thinking that Brister was taking his new starter’s role for granted, surprised Bubby by opening up the full playbook during a preseason game at Dallas to see how Brister would respond. Bubby was simply not prepared to handle the workload, and Shanahan had his answer; Brian Griese was named the starter immediately thereafter. Shanahan is using Haynesworth as an example; shape up or ship out, and this is the sort of battle a coach usually wins. Something tells us this dilemma isn’t going to have a happy ending in D.C. RED FLAG

Jacksonville’s defense. It’s no secret that HC Jack Del Rio is under the gun with the Jaguars this season, and improvement from his stop unit will be crucial. Last season, the Jags recorded only a paltry 14 sacks, and were vulnerable fore and aft. Much of the offseason was spent trying to upgrade the defense, signing DE Aaron Kampman from Green Bay and investing the first four draft choices along the DL. But early returns are discouraging, as the frontline Jag defense hasn’t been able to stop modest Philadelphia and Miami attacks when on the field in the first two preseason games. There’s time for the platoon to coagulate, but early evidence indicated the defense could be an ongoing issue for this year’s Jags...and Del Rio’s hopes of lasting in 2011. RED FLAG

Denver’s defense. True, it has been an uncommonly rough summer for the Broncos, who have endured a spate of injuries. Their best defensive playmakers (including Elvis Dumervail, who might miss the entire season, and Champ Bailey) have been hurting, as have several key members of the offense. Nonetheless, Bronco watchers are a bit horrified from what they have seen from the stop unit in the early going. Poor tackling has been a recurring issue, and some are beginning to wonder if promoted d.c. Don "Wink" Martindale (gotta love that nickname!) might at best be a downgrade from shrewd predecessor Mike Nolan (now with Miami), and at worst be overmatched in his new duties. Longtime Bronco fans have seen this before; ex-Cowboys DB Charlie Waters was out of his depth back in 1994 when working as d.c. for then-HC Wade Phillips, who himself had to take over those duties during the middle of the season. This is also not going to be the youngest defense in the league, with the majority of starters on the wrong side of 30. The first six weeks of the 2009 season are looking a lot further n the rear-view mirror these days in Denver. RED FLAG

Indianapolis starts 0-2. Much like predecessor and mentor Tony Dungy, Colts HC Jim Caldwell does not put much emphasis on the results of preseason games. Although QB Peyton Manning got a big more work than expected in the second preseason game in Toronto against the Bills, Caldwell is in full-blown evaluation mode this summer as he was a year ago, as how Dungy was for several summers before that. As long as Manning stays healthy and the Colts avoid other key injuries, these early preseason losses will as usual be quickly forgotten in September. FALSE ALARM

Tampa Bay QB Josh Freeman. Freeman’s thumb injury suffered last week vs. the Chiefs means that Raheem Morris has to count upon youngsters Josh Johnson and Rudy Carpenter for at least the next two preseason games. But if Freeman isn’t going to be ready for the regular-season opener against the Browns, Morris might have to go shopping for an available veteran backup to temporarily plug the dike. We doubt Morris would go to battle with the young Johnson and Carpenter as his only QB options. RED FLAG

Minnesota QB Brett Favre. The Wrangler Jeans guy ended up returning to Viking camp on the exact same day he reported a year ago (August 18), which really surprised few knowledgeable Minnesota fans who knew that Favre was likely to resurface when the worst days of training camp were complete. Favre only took four snaps in his preseason debut Sunday night vs. the 49ers. We’d keep an eye, however, on a potentially prickly situation with HC Brad Childress, who doesn’t seem all too excited about dealing with "the diva with a drawl," and would really pay attention f the Vikings start slowly. For now, however, Favre’s absence and limited work last Sunday are no concerns. FALSE ALARM

Carolina QB Matt Moore. Moore was something of a revelation in stint as a starter late last season, appearing poised and comfortable when leading the Panther offense. Tossing 8 TDP and only 2 picks down the stretch, Moore’s performance made it a lot easier for HC John Fox to allow vet QB Jake Delhomme to walk in the offseason. What Fox has been left with is the youngest QB rotation in the league, with Moore, rookies Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) and Tony Pike (Cincinnati), and ex-Louisville Cardinal Hunter Cantwell the options. But Moore will not be sneaking up on anybody this season, and expectations are a lot higher as a starter than they were when he was basically a relief pitcher. Although he’s faced a couple of rugged defenses (the Ravens and Jets) in the first two preseason games, Moore has yet to lead a TD drive. And now that Clausen, who appeared to have the inside track to the backup job, could be limited by a nagging toe injury, the Panther QB situation hardly appears to be a strength as the regular season fast approaches. RED FLAG

Arizona QB Matt Leinart. The pressure is on Leinart to produce now that Kurt Warner has retired in the desert. And Matt has acknowledged as much with some of his training camp commentary. Some observers, however, are wondering if the game is just a bit too fast for Leinart, who, like Denver’s Brady Quinn, still seems to be in adjustment mode to the NFL despite this being his fifth season. On the surface, Leinart’s stats do not look terrible during his first two preseason games, but he has yet to lead the Cardinals on a scoring drive, and has not looked as good as Derek Anderson, brought in by HC Ken Whisenhunt from Cleveland to push Leinart in the summer. Indeed, rookies John Skelton (Fordham) and Max Hall (BYU) might have outplayed both Leinart and Anderson thus far, although it should be noted how they were succeeding vs. deep reserves from the Texans and Titans. Whatever, Leinart is not yet inspiring much confidence that he will be the man to replace Warner. RED FLAG

Dallas offensive woes. The Cowboys have scored just 13.7 ppg in their first three preseason games, and QB Tony Romo has yet to flash any of his All-Pro form. Although there are some questions regarding Dallas’ somewhat-depleted OL, it has mostly been a healthy summer camp for the Cowboys, and expect the playbook to expand for this Saturday’s in-state encounter vs. the Texans. As long as Romo doesn’t get hurt, we wouldn’t worry too much about any travails in the preseason for the Cowboys. FALSE ALARM

Philadelphia QB Kevin Kolb. The easily impressionable Eagles fans were ecstatic about Kolb’s performance in the opener vs. Jacksonville, the ex-Houston Cougar’s first as Donovan McNabb’s successor for the Birds. They weren’t quite as happy after Kolb mostly struggled in his second outing vs. the Bengals, but it’s still honeymoon time in Philly for Kolb on 610 WIP. McNabb, who? But let’s see if Eagles fans aren’t clamoring for another QB if the Birds open up 1-3. We need some more convincing about Kolb. FALSE ALARM

St. Louis QB A.J. Feeley injury. Rams HC Steve Spagnuolo figured that Feeley would be a nice stop-gap in St. Louis until rookie top choice and ex-Heisman winning QB Sam Bradford was ready to take over, either later this season or next year. The plan wasn’t for Bradford to be thrown to the wolves right off the bat. But Feeley’s thumb injury last Saturday vs. the Browns makes it very possible that rookie Bradford (who will start Thursday’s preseason game vs. the Patriots) will be behind center when the Rams start playing for keeps on September 12 vs. Arizona. The limited Keith Null, who started a handful of games late last season but only 3 of 14 through the air last Saturday in Cleveland, might not be a preferred option over Bradford, should Feeley be out for any extended period. Keep in mind that the Rams offense has yet to crack the 200-yard barrier in either of its first two preseson games, although star RB Steven Jackson finally got on the field for a few carries in the rain vs. the Browns after missing the opener vs. the Vikings. RED FLAG

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