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**jt4545** · 08-25-2010, 07:02 PM

good luck bum, thanks

**StarDust Bum** · 08-25-2010, 07:30 PM

Top trends converge in San Diego-Arizona clash

It’s a rarity in sports handicapping when one team’s weakness almost directly supports an opponent’s strength, but such is the case tonight in San Diego, where the Padres host the Diamondbacks, looking for a second victory over them in as many nights. Following a 5-0 shutout win Tuesday, San Diego has been installed as a -165 favorite, and a certain ******* performance angle indicates they are well worth it. Let’s take a look.

The trend variable of note is playing against good or bad teams. As it turns out, San Diego has been dominant against bad teams in the second half, while the Diamondbacks have struggled against the league’s worst. In this case, ******* is gauging teams’ strengths by their run differential. Arizona is outscored by 0.9 runs per game, a brutal mark, while San Diego bests its foes by an average of 1.0 run per game, among the best in baseball. Here are the performance records…

ARIZONA is 2-13 (-10.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was ARIZONA 3.0, OPPONENT 6.6 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO is 19-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

One of the most important things you’ll want to note regarding these trends is the average score differentials. They are very telling. Arizona has been outscored by 3.6 runs per game in those 15 contests. San Diego meanwhile, has won its second half games against bad teams by 2.6 runs per.

Certainly when the trends converge, they point a singular direction as far as tonight’s game is concerned. If you do plan on playing it, note further that the Padres will be seeking a ninth consecutive home win against the last-place Diamondbacks on Wednesday night.

San Diego (75-49) increased its lead over San Francisco from 2 1/2 games to six during a 7-3 trip, and has a great chance to keep widening the gap with a lengthy stretch at home over the next three weeks. The Padres can strengthen their grip on first place in the NL West with 16 of their next 19 games at Petco Park.

San Diego has matched its win total from last season - with 38 games to go. The Padres have won five in a row and 13 of 16 at home.

They've taken all seven home games against the Diamondbacks (49-77) in 2010, and have outscored Arizona 53-21 in winning eight in a row in the series at Petco.

Wade LeBlanc (7-11, 3.85 ERA) will try to keep that streak going, and despite a 3-5 home record, he has a 2.59 ERA in those 12 starts compared to a 5.37 ERA on the road.

Joe Saunders (7-13, 4.54) makes his second start against San Diego since joining the Diamondbacks, and looks to snap a two-start losing streak.

Game time is set for 10:05 PM ET, or 7:05 on the Golden Coast, as Katy Perry refers to it.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-25-2010, 07:31 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Rays at Angels – The Rays are 8-0 since April 13, 2010 when Jeff Niemann starts when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $880. The Angels are 6-0 since April 10, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 0-5 since July 30, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since July 26, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $620.

Dodgers at Brewers – The Dodgers are 0-7 since October 18, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a road dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-6 since July 28, 2010 as a dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-7 since May 12, 2010 as a home favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $860 when playing against.

Reds at Giants – The Reds are 7-0 since August 28, 2009 when Homer Bailey starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $780. The Giants are 6-0 since April 27, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $645.

Athletics at Indians – The Indians are 0-6 since May 04, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Marlins at Mets – The Mets are 0-8 since June 26, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $940 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since July 01, 2010 after a one run win for a net profit of $885 when playing against.

Cubs at Nationals – The Cubs are 0-12 since May 04, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1390 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-7 since June 03, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 0-13 since May 25, 2010 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1305 when playing against. The Padres are 10-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.

Astros at Phillies – The Phillies are 8-0 since June 25, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $800. The Phillies are 7-0 since June 04, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700.

Cardinals at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-6 since September 07, 2009 when Daniel McCutchen starts when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 6-0 since April 27, 2010 when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start after a loss for a net profit of $620. The Rangers are 6-0 since July 25, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $600.

Mariners at Red Sox – The Mariners are 0-6 since April 26, 2010 when Felix Hernandez starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $820 when playing against. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $650. The Red Sox are 0-4 since July 18, 2010 when Jon Lester starts at home for a net profit of $740 when playing against.

Braves at Rockies – The Braves are 0-4 since June 16, 2009 when Jair Jurrjens starts as a favorite after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $690 when playing against.

Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-7 since July 20, 2010 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Tigers are 9-0 since June 12, 2010 as a home favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $900.

Orioles at White Sox – The Orioles are 0-9 since April 07, 2010 as a road 170+ dog after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 10, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $810. The White Sox are 6-0 since August 17, 2009 when Mark Buehrle starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $605.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-25-2010, 07:33 PM

Wednesday Tips

Five games take place on the Wednesday afternoon baseball card, with three contests holding playoff significance. The Rays continue to go back and forth with the Yankees atop the AL East, as Tampa Bay wraps up its trip in Anaheim against the Angels. The Reds and Giants finish up their three-game set in San Francisco, but we'll start with the NL East leaders looking for some breathing room in their division at Colorado.

Braves at Rockies - 3:10 PM EST

Atlanta has plenty to play for over the final five weeks of the season, as the Braves play the last of a three-game set at Coors Field. Bobby Cox's team leads the NL East by 2 ½ games over the Phillies, while trailing the Padres by three games for the best record in the National League. Colorado will likely miss the playoffs after winning the Wild Card last season, as the Rockies sit five games behind the Phillies for the final playoff berth in the NL.

Jair Jurrjens (5-4, 3.91 ERA) is back to his old self by delivering four straight quality starts for the Braves. The right-hander was bailed out by his lineup producing a pair of comeback road wins over the Astros and Cubs in the ninth inning. Jurrjens has taken care of business since coming off the disabled list on June 30, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of 10 starts. Since acquiring Jurrjens from the Tigers in 2008, the Braves are 5-1 in his six outings against the Rockies, including a 4-3 triumph back in April at Turner Field.

The Rockies send righty Esmil Rogers (2-2, 4.53 ERA) to the mound, who pitched a terrific game at Arizona before the Colorado bullpen blew it in a 4-3 setback. Rogers scattered six hits and one earned run in 6.1 innings of work, while striking out a career-high six against the D-Backs. The 25-year old picked up a no-decision in his last home outing, giving up nine hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Brewers. Colorado owns a 1-4 record in Rogers' five starts, but the Milwaukee outing was his only start at Coors Field.

Colorado has taken three of five meetings this season, while the Rockies are 7-2 the last eight matchups at home. The Braves own an 8-13 mark in road matinees, but have won three of their last four in this situation.

Rays at Angels - 3:35 PM EST

Tampa Bay finishes up its seven-game swing through the Golden State as the Rays try to capture the sweep of the Angels. Joe Maddon's club lost the first two games of this trip at Oakland before winning four straight. The Rays have won 11 of 15 since getting swept at Toronto, while the Halos have dropped eight of 11 to basically fall out of playoff contention.

After Wade Davis took the mound on Tuesday following a stint on the DL, another tall righty has been activated as Jeff Niemann (10-3, 3.12 ERA) gets the ball on Wednesday afternoon. Niemann and Davis each went on the DL in early August with right shoulder strains, as the Rays own an impressive 9-1 mark in Niemann's 10 road starts. The former Rice Owl has delivered only one quality start in his last five outings, but the Rays are 3-0 in his three outings as a road underdog. Niemann has struggled during daytime starts, compiling an ERA of 5.18 in four matinee trips to the mound.

Dan Haren (1-4, 4.39 ERA) has seen little luck since getting dealt from Arizona to Los Angeles, winning one of six starts. Haren was knocked around at Minnesota in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs and 10 hits in seven innings of a 7-2 loss. Pitching at home hasn't helped either, with the Angels going 1-3 in four home starts, while the 'under' has hit three times. Haren hasn't faced Tampa Bay since they were the Devil Rays back in 2007, so his numbers against that team would be deemed a bit irrelevant (5-2).

Tampa Bay owns an 11-8 mark in matinee road games this season, while going 'under' in four straight away contests during the day against right-handed starting pitchers. The Halos are an impressive 6-1 at home in games under the sun against righty starters.

Reds at Giants - 3:45 PM EST

A pair of young hurlers takes the mound in the series finale between a division leader and a club right outside the playoff race in San Francisco. The Reds are back atop the NL Central after an 8-3 run, while the Giants are within striking distance in both the NL West and NL Wild Card races, but need to make a push right now.

Rookie Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.20 ERA) is coming off a pair of impressive efforts against the Padres and Cardinals his last two times out, allowing four earned runs in 14 innings of work. Bumgarner has not registered a victory at home in four starts, as the Giants won in walk-off fashion against San Diego and Chicago. The 'over' registered at St. Louis in his last start ended a 7-1 'under' run, as Bumgarner's previous three home outings have cashed the 'under.'

The Reds counter with Homer Bailey (3-2, 4.52 ERA), who has been extremely solid since re-entering the rotation. Bailey has yielded seven hits and one earned run in 13 innings in wins over the Marlins and Dodgers, while easily hitting the 'under' each time. The right-hander doesn't have the best track record against the Giants, allowing 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings of two starts in 2009, as the Reds split those games.

San Francisco has profited nicely in day games at AT&T Park against right-handed starters, going 12-6 this season. Despite losing the first two games of this series, the Reds are 12-4 the previous 16 games on the highway.

**Kaptain** · 08-25-2010, 08:11 PM

running loate today BUM, belated gl and kick ass

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