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**jt4545** · 08-24-2010, 12:18 PM

Good luck bum, and thanks

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 12:19 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Rays at Angels – The Rays are 0-8 since June 16, 2010 on the road after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $845 when playing against.

Yankees at Blue Jays – The Yankees are 9-0 since April 06, 2010 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $990. The Blue Jays are 5-0 since June 19, 2010 after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $575.

Dodgers at Brewers – The Dodgers are 0-6 since July 28, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-8 since June 20, 2009 when David Bush starts as a dog after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Reds at Giants – The Giants are 10-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.

Athletics at Indians – The Athletics are 5-0 since May 17, 2010 after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $544. The Indians are 0-10 since April 12, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1020 when playing against. The Indians are 6-0 since June 29, 2010 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $715.

Marlins at Mets – The Mets are 6-0 since May 11, 2010 at home after a one run loss for a net profit of $735.

Cubs at Nationals – The Cubs are 0-9 since May 28, 2010 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since May 04, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $765 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-7 since June 02, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $725 when playing against.

Diamondbacks at Padres – The Diamondbacks are 0-12 since May 25, 2010 on the road vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1205 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since July 08, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $700.

Astros at Phillies – The Astros are 5-0 since May 13, 2010 when Bud Norris starts after more strike outs than hits allowed at home for a net profit of $850

Cardinals at Pirates – The Cardinals are 8-0 since April 29, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800. The Pirates are 0-11 since June 07, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

Twins at Rangers – The Twins are 9-0 since July 11, 2010 on the road when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $980. The Rangers are 0-6 since August 03, 2010 when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $790 when playing against.

Mariners at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 9-0 since April 18, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $900. The Red Sox are 6-0 since May 20, 2010 after a win in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $650.

Braves at Rockies – The Braves are 9-0 since May 18, 2010 after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $915. The Rockies are 8-0 since July 08, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $800.

Royals at Tigers – The Royals are 0-6 since June 20, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last four games for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Tigers are 12-0 since May 01, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit for a net profit of $1200.

Orioles at White Sox – The Orioles are 7-0 since July 29, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $945. The White Sox are 6-0 since May 08, 2010 when they are off a game that was tied at the end of at least six separate innings for a net profit of $630.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 12:20 PM

Tuesday's Tip Sheet

**Twins at Rangers**

--Most betting shops are listing Texas (70-54, -26) as a minus-135 favorite with a total of nine ‘under’ (minus-120). Bettors can back the Rangers on the run line (minus 1 ½ runs) for a generous plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

--Minnesota (72-53, +894) has won 23 of its last 30 games dating back to July 21. The Twins are 32-31 on the road this year. They lead the American League Central by 4 1/2 games over the White Sox.

--Texas is in first place in the AL West, leading the Angels by eight games before their Monday night game with the Rays went final. The Rangers have cashed tickets at a 40-23 clip at home. They captured a 4-0 win in last night's series opener against the Twins, hooking up their backers as favorites in the minus-140-150 range. Bettors going the run-line route cashed a plus-130 ticket (paid $130 on $100 wagers). Rob Harden kept the Twins hitless through 6 2/3 innings before getting lifted due to five walks and 111 pitches thrown. The Rangers had a chance to complete the no-hitter, but Joe Mauer broke up the bid in the ninth inning off Neftali Feliz.

--Carl Pavano (15-8, 3.52) owns an 8-4 record and 3.13 ERA in 13 road assignments this year. The veteran righty is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers. Pavano got roughed up his last time out in a loss to the White Sox, surrendering seven earned runs and 15 hits in six innings of work. The loss was just Pavano's second since the All-Star break.

--Colby Lewis (9-10, 3.37) has posted a 5-3 record and 2.95 ERA in 10 home starts this season. The right-hander has taken losses in both of his career starts against the Twins with a 4.40 ERA.

--Texas slugger Josh Hamilton is 3-for-9 off Pavano for a .333 average with two doubles. Hamilton took an MLB-best .357 average into Monday’s action. Julio Borbon has five singles in seven career at-bats versus Pavano.

--Ron Gardenhire’s team has an MLB-best batting average of .281. Despite the season-long absence of closer Joe Nathan, the Twins have the third-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.24 ERA. In Nathan’s absence, Matt Capps has been a more than adequate replacement, compiling a 4-3 record and 2.64 ERA with 31 saves.

--The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-2 clip in the Twins’ last seven games.

--The MLB Network will have the telecast at 8:10 p.m. Eastern.

**Reds at Giants**

--Most spots have made this game a pick ‘em (minus-110 either way) with a total of seven ‘over’ (minus-125). Gamblers can back San Francisco (70-56, +849) on the run line for a monster plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

--Cincinnati (72-53, +1764) fell to 36-27 on the road when it got thumped 11-2 last night at San Francisco. The loss, coupled with a 10-2 St. Louis win, allowed the Cardinals to pull within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Reds in the NL Central.

--Bruce Bochy’s club is in second place in the NL West, 5 1/2 games back of the Padres who had Monday off. Aubrey Huff was the catalyst for the Giants last night, going 3-for-4 with three RBIs in the blowout victory. Matt Cain picked up his 10th win of the season, working eight innings and giving up just two earned runs. Cain fanned seven compared to only one free pass. The Giants improved to 38-23 at home.

--Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.47) is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 13 home appearances (12 starts) this season. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in three career starts against the Reds.

--Just nine starts into his MLB career, Cincinnati LHP Travis Wood (4-1, 2.51) appears poised to be a workhorse down the stretch. The lefty has a 3-0 record and 1.83 ERA his last three times out. Wood will be facing the Giants for the first time.

--The Reds are 22-17 against left-handed pitching in 2010.

--The first pitch is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Oakland LHP Gio Gonzalez has a 3-0 record and 1.16 ERA in four career starts against tonight’s foe, Cleveland.

--Florida RHP Josh Johnson owns the Mets with a 7-1 record and 2.55 ERA in 11 lifetime starts. The Marlins are short road favorites Tuesday at New York.

--Kansas City RHP Kyle Davies is the eighth-best money pitcher in baseball this year. The Royals are 13-11 in his 24 starts for a money total of plus-923. Davies will get the starting nod Tuesday night at Detroit.

--San Diego maintains the best money tally in all of baseball (plus-2952), hooking up its backers with nearly 30 units of profit.

--Arizona has the majors’ worst team ERA at 5.06. In turn, the ‘over’ is an MLB-best 74-48-3 for the Diamondbacks.

**poskid** · 08-24-2010, 12:41 PM

Hope your month turns at the end here man...BOL SDBum.

PK

**Kaptain** · 08-24-2010, 12:43 PM

need that good ass roll starting today BUM.....I shat the bed yesterday.....

let's lock N load, and kick ass today....

get em PODNA.......thanks for posting

**bryce** · 08-24-2010, 01:11 PM

Good luck SDB!!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:25 PM

Heavily favored Phillies a strong play against visiting Astros

Houston (55-69) at Philadelphia (70-54), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Philadelphia -270, Houston +225 Total: 7.5
The Astros and Phillies continue their four-game series Tuesday night in Philadelphia. Bud Norris (6-7, 5.23 ERA) gets the call for Houston while Cole Hamels (7-10, 3.51 ERA) will start for the Phillies.
Norris has been quite effective lately, going seven innings and giving up two runs in each of this last two starts. He has won his last four decisions and the Astros have won his last five starts. In his only start against Philadelphia this year (April 9), Norris lasted just 2.2 innings and gave up three runs on six hits while walking four.

Hamels will be looking to right the ship Tuesday night. He has lost his last three starts and has only one win since June 13 (span of 12 starts). Hamels has been the victim of poor run support lately with a pair of 1-0 losses on his resume this month. In seven career starts against Houston, Hamels is 3-2 with a 5.16 ERA.

The FoxSheets like heavily favored Philadelphia in this one:

Play On - Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (255-170 over the last 5 seasons.) (60%, +91 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:26 PM

Wainwright comes at a steep price tonight in Pittsburgh

St. Louis (68-54) at Pittsburgh (41-84), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: St. Louis -250, Pittsburgh +215 Total: 7
St. Louis sends ace Adam Wainwright (17-7, 2.06 ERA) to the mound tonight as the Cardinals and Pirates meet in the middle game of a three-game series. Pittsburgh will counter with southpaw Paul Maholm (7-12, 4.92 ERA). Maholm has struggled lately, by losing his last three starts and toting a 7.80 ERA over that span. He took the loss against St. Louis on May 9, going 3.1 innings while giving up six runs (four earned) on six hits and three walks.
Wainwright, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, is coming off a loss to Milwaukee last time out, but that should bode well for the Cardinals today. The right-hander is 6-0 this season after suffering a loss and his most previous start in this situation came against Pittsburgh on August 1. Wainwright went seven innings giving up one run on six hits.

The big price on Wainwright might be hard to swallow, but it’s tough to argue this FoxSheets trend:

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (PITTSBURGH) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. (71-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (91%, +55.8 units. Rating = 5*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:26 PM

Handicapping trend points to Blue Jays at home against Yankees

New York Yankees (77-48) at Toronto (65-59), 7:07 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: New York -112, Toronto +102 Total: 9.5
The Yankees hope to re-take sole possession of the AL East lead when they meet the Blue Jays tonight at Rogers Centre. Dustin Moseley (3-2, 4.76 ERA) gets the ball for the Yanks while Toronto sends Marc Rzepczynski (1-1, 4.76 ERA) to the hill.
Moseley has been hit hard lately, carrying a 5.87 ERA over his last four starts into this matchup. He has given up seven home runs over this span, a stat that could loom large facing Toronto, whose 190 HR are 22 more than any other team in the majors. Moseley took the loss against the Blue Jays on August 3, giving up five earned runs over 7.1 IP.

Rzepczynski has bounced back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation this year and makes his fifth start of the season tonight. He’s coming off a no-decision in Oakland where he went 4.1 IP and gave up three runs on five hits and five walks. In two career starts against New York, Rzepczynski is 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA.

In what appears to be an even matchup, this FoxSheets trend favors Toronto:

Play On - Any team (TORONTO) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (AL). (82-53 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.7%, +45 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:27 PM

Mets a home underdog against Marlins and Josh Johnson

Florida (62-61) at New York Mets (62-62), 7:10 EDT Sports.com Line: Florida -120, New York +110 Total: 6.5
NL East foes clash at Citi Field tonight when the Marlins and Mets start a three-game series. Josh Johnson (11-5, 2.27 ERA) will start for Florida while knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey (8-5, 2.41 ERA) gets the nod for New York. Dickey is coming off a pair of impressive outings, including a complete-game one-hit shutout of Philadelphia on August 13. He’s been very good at home this year, compiling a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA.
Johnson picked up his first win in over a month his last time out when he gave up two runs on two solo homers in a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh. He’s been somewhat inconsistent lately and was hammered two starts back, giving up six runs on 10 hits over 3.2 innings, his shortest outing of the season. He has great numbers against the Mets, however. In 11 lifetime starts, Johnson is 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA.

Despite Johnson’s dominance of New York, the FoxSheets like the Mets here:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL). (55-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +30.7 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:28 PM

White Sox a strong play at home against Orioles

Baltimore (44-81) at Chicago White Sox (67-57), 8:10 EDT Sports.com Line: Chicago -170, Baltimore +160 Total: 8.5
The White Sox look to close the gap in the Central when they open up a three-game series with the Orioles tonight. Two pitchers with identical ERAs square off as Jeremy Guthrie (7-12, 3.97 ERA) will start for Baltimore while Chicago counters with Gavin Floyd (8-10, 3.97 ERA).
Guthrie has been one of Baltimore’s better pitchers this year and has gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts. His most recent effort was a loss in Seattle (8 IP, 8 H, 5 ER) but he is still 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Floyd will be happy to face someone other than the Twins tonight. Over his last two starts, both losses against Minnesota, Floyd allowed 13 runs on 20 hits in just 12 innings of work. His last win came August 7 at Baltimore where he went seven innings, giving up two runs.

Floyd and the White Sox have this strong FoxSheets trend on their side:

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (67-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +43.2 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 06:28 PM

Line flips a sign of MLB things to come Tuesday?

According to our friends over at Scoresandodds.com, three of the games on Tuesday night’s Major League Betting board have seen their lines flip today, meaning one team opened as the favorite but is now the underdog. In each case, the road club was favored but has since ceded that role to the host. Let’s take a look at those three games and their corresponding line moves to see if we can’t benefit from our fellow bettors’ wisdom.

(911) ATLANTA (LOWE) at (912) COLORADO (DE LA ROSA) 8:40 PM
ScoresandOdds opening line: Atlanta -110, Currently: Colorado -109

Colorado’s 5-4 victory in the series opener on Monday gave the Rockies their first consecutive wins since a four-game streak July 29-Aug. 1.

Colorado pulled within six games of the Phillies in the wild-card race, but it wasn't the only team happy to see Philadelphia fall. The Braves (73-52) remained 2 1/2 games ahead in the NL East race thanks to the Phillies' defeat.

The Rockies had scored five runs in their previous four games.

Derek Lowe (11-11, 4.32 ERA) goes for the Braves. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts against the Rockies, but 1-3 in his five most recent starts, and the Braves are 2-8 in his 10 second-half starts.

Lowe will be opposed by Jorge De La Rosa (4-4, 4.74), who was a hard-luck loser Thursday despite one of his best performances of the season. The left-hander held the Dodgers to two runs and five hits over seven innings, but Colorado mustered only two hits in a 2-0 defeat.

Bettors may be backing the Rockies based upon the following system:

******* Super Situation favoring COLORADO against the money line

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games. (102-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.6%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*)

(915) CINCINNATI (WOOD) at (916) SAN FRANCISCO (SANCHEZ) 10:15 PM
ScoresandOdds opening line: Cincinnati -110, Currently: San Francisco -110

Reds rookie Travis Wood hopes to quiet San Francisco's bats and win his fifth consecutive start as Cincinnati continues its road trip on Tuesday night. However, he’ll have his hands full against a Giants lineup that scored 11 runs on 17 hits in the series opener.

The Reds (72-53) remain atop the NL in batting average (.271) and runs (617), and they averaged 5.9 runs while winning eight of nine before Monday's game.

The Giants (70-56), meanwhile, had totaled one run in their previous two games, but they scored five runs in the first inning of the 11-2 win. The victory opened a nine-game and pulled the Giants within one game of Philadelphia in the wild-card race.

San Francisco's hitters are in for a challenge as they face Wood (4-1, 2.51 ERA) for the first time. Opponents are hitting just .176 against the left-hander, but over the last couple of seasons, San Francisco has produced well for bettors against solid pitching:

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-11 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Cincinnati is 14-5 on the road since the All-Star break, with slugger Joey Votto batting .406 with 16 RBIs in that stretch. That has helped the Reds take a 2 1/2-game division lead over St. Louis.

Cincinnati may have to operate with a depleted lineup Tuesday against San Francisco's Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.47). Outfielder Jim Edmonds (strained oblique) and Laynce Nix (sprained ankle) both left Monday's game.

A Giants win would also end the Reds' streak of six consecutive series victories on the road - and San Francisco's string of three straight series losses overall. They have fared well vs. the Reds and their divisional counterparts this season:

SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

(929) TAMPA BAY (DAVIS) at (930) LA ANGELS (SANTANA) 10:05 PM
ScoresandOdds opening line: Tampa Bay -110, Currently: LA Angels -107

Tampa Bay has played well on the road against the Los Angeles Angels this year. The Rays, though, did not have to face Ervin Santana until now. The right-hander looks to remain perfect against the Rays in Anaheim while trying to help the Angels avoid a fourth consecutive home loss to the AL East co-leaders Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay (77-48) moved into a first-place tie with New York by winning its third straight, 4-3 over Los Angeles on Monday. It was the Rays' fifth one-run game in a row. That win streak however, leads bettors into a potentially profitable fade system for Tuesday:

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%). (41-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.1%, +23.3 units. Rating = 2*)

Since losing six straight on the road to the Angels, the Rays have won three in a row in Anaheim this season. Three of the teams' four 2010 meetings have been determined by one run.

Santana has posted a 1.21 ERA in winning all three of his home starts against the Rays and has been outstanding of late, posting a 2.66 ERA in winning his last three starts. He has also done very good work against the league’s best:

SANTANA is 10-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Making his debut against Los Angeles, Tampa Bay's Wade Davis (9-9, 4.45) will come off the disabled list for his first start since Aug. 5.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-24-2010, 07:09 PM

American League Preview from The Sports Network

Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) at LA Angels of Anaheim (62-64), 10:05 p.m.

Probable Starting Pitchers: Tampa Bay - Wade Davis (9-9, 4.45) LA Angels - Ervin Santana (13-8, 3.93)

(Sports Network) - Ervin Santana goes after his fourth straight win this evening when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim continue their three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Angel Stadium.

Santana's most recent win came on Thursday in Boston where he held the Red Sox to a pair of runs and four hits in seven innings to run his record to 13-8 on the year to go along with a 3.93 earned run average.

Extending that streak may not be a problem tonight, as the right-hander has won all three of his home starts against the Rays, while pitching to a 1.21 ERA. He is 4-4 lifetime against them with a 5.17 ERA in 10 starts.

The Rays moved back into a tie atop the American League East standings with a win in the opener of this set on Monday, as James Shields pitched six-plus innings and fanned 10 batters helping Tampa Bay 4-3.

B.J. Upton hit Scott Kazmir's first pitch of the game over the wall in left field. Upton finished with two RBI for the Rays, who won for the eighth time in 10 games and are tied with the Yankees atop the division. New York lost in Toronto, 3-2, earlier Monday.

Shields (12-11) surrendered eight hits and three runs -- two earned -- to win for the fifth time in his last seven starts. Rafael Soriano struck out the side in the ninth to get his major league-leading 38th save.

"We scored three out of the gate and I was able to go deep in the game," Shields said. "I had good command of my fastball as well as my change-up. I got into a nice rhythm. Every win now is pretty big."

Kazmir (8-11), who broke into the majors with Tampa Bay in 2004 but was traded to the Angels in August of last year, suffered yet another loss, his sixth over his last eight starts. The lefty was touched for five hits and four runs -- three earned -- in 5 1/3 innings.

"Giving up three passes in the first inning is a recipe for disaster," Kazmir said. "If I would have gotten by the first inning, it could have been a whole different outcome. It was frustrating."

Hideki Matsui stroked a two-run double for the Angels, who lost for the sixth time in eight games.

The Angels will take their swings tonight against the returning Wade Davis, who because of a shoulder strain will be pitching for the first time since August 5. He had won his last four decisions before going on the disabled list and is 9-9 on the year with a 4.45 ERA.

This will be Davis' first-ever start against the Angels.

The Rays took two of three from the Halos earlier in the year.

**Spark** · 08-24-2010, 07:14 PM

Good Luck bum

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The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

The Bum's Tuesday's MLB Best Bets !

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