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**StarDust Bum** · 08-22-2010, 09:58 AM

Favre, Vikings take on San Fran

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition, Brett Favre has decided to grace us with his presence once more.

Favre confirmed late last week that he will be back with the Vikings this season. And proving that he has a great sense of timing, he’ll return to the field on NBC’s Sunday Night Football at San Francisco.

Gamblers have kept a keen eye to the line of this game as news started to roll in about everyone’s favorite flip-flopper. The 49ers were installed as three-point home favorites for this contest with a total of 34. They pushed up to 3 ½-points almost immediately after the release of the line. However, news of Favre’s return has helped push the Niners down to 2 ½-point faves. The public even pushed the total around, bumping it up to 35.

For all of those wondering, Brad Childress has confirmed that Favre will start on Sunday night. He’s going to play at least two series against, leaving Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels to handle the rest of the contest.

While fans might want to see No. 4 for longer than the first quarter, bettors can’t complain with the backups. The duo of Jackson and Rosenfels helped propel Minnesota to a 28-7 win as a 2 ½-point road pup against the Rams. Jackson was alright in his brief time on the field in completing 2 of his 4 passes for 11 yards. Rosenfels, on the other hand, was out to impress by connecting on 23 of 34 attempts for 310 yards and three touchdowns.

The Vikings were almost stingy on defense against St. Louis, holding them to just 150 yards. And that doesn’t take into account that they sacked Rams quarterbacks six times for a loss of 35 yards.

San Francisco didn’t have any problems against the Colts last Sunday as they picked up a decisive 37-17 win as a four-point road favorite in its preseason opener.

The QB play wasn’t all that stellar amongst Alex Smith, David Carr and Nate Davis. That trio completed 17 of 26 passes for 219 yards and one score. Anthony Dixon proved to be a quality pickup out of Mississippi State after rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.

The 49ers’ defense did yield 235 yards to Indy last Sunday afternoon. However, they were better in some big stat categories. San Fran let the Colts covert just four of their 14 third-downs at Lucas Oil Stadium. Plus, they picked off four passes from Indianapolis passers, with Reggie Smith running one of them 91 yards back to the house.

If the Childress Era in Minneapolis has done anything more than have a Gerald McRaney look-alike, it’s his record as a preseason pup. The Vikings have gone 5-3 straight up as road pups since Childress took control of the team in 2006. For our purposes though, Minny has gone a solid 6-2 against the spread.

Mike Singletary guided his club to a 2-0 SU mark in both of their games as home favorites in the preseason in 2009, but failed to cover the number on either occasion. Since 2007, San Fran has gone 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS as a home “chalk.”

Random Preseason Thoughts…

- Home teams have enjoyed a lot of good fortunes so far this preseason, going 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS through Friday’s Eagles-Bengals clash. Gamblers looking to take favorites only have seen them post a 12-6 SU and 9-9 ATS mark in that same time frame. The only sure-fire wager for us to take advantage of is the ‘over’ as it’s gone 11-7.

- I’ll be the first to tell you that I don’t have anywhere near the football acumen of Colts GM Bill Polian. That being said, what the hell is he doing with Curtis Painter as Peyton Manning’s backup? Painter could throw the ball like nobody’s business at Purdue (Joe Tiller had one heck of a system). Yet he barely could beat ranked teams them. The former Boilermaker has done little to make me believe he can play at this level in preseason and late regular season work. God help the Colts if Manning goes down because they’re toast with Painter under center.

- Betting on football is about as good as it gets for many of us. Watching preseason football, however, is like sitting through a kindergarten graduation ceremony…you want the kids/players to feel special, but you and everyone else know that it’s a waste of time. I fail to see any reason to keep four games on the exhibition slate; two tests sounds about right to me. Unfortunately that setup won’t happen until the NFL sets up for an 18-game regular season. Please make that happen!

- Perhaps it’s the degenerate in me but I enjoyed being able to bet on and watch a game live at 7:00 a.m. during the World Cup. That’s leading into a chance to do more of the same thing this winter with the Barclay’s Premier League going on first thing in the morning to lead into college football on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday. Not a bad way to start making money on the weekend.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-22-2010, 09:59 AM

Sunday Tips

The Sunday baseball card concludes with three games involving clubs looking not to get knocked off in big spots. The NL Central-leading Reds finish off their weekend set at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers, while the Angels try to beat the Twins at Target Field. We'll start in Oakland as the A's look to pull a déjà vu performance against Tampa Bay.

Rays at Athletics - 4:05 PM EST

There's little question that Tampa Bay will return to the playoffs in October, while Oakland will miss the postseason for the fourth consecutive year. However, the A's have had the Rays number at the Oakland Coliseum, winning six of the last seven meetings dating back to last season.

There have been few highlights this season for Oakland lefty Dallas Braden (8-8, 3.44 ERA), but the biggest one by far was the perfect game he tossed against Tampa Bay on May 9. Braden didn't win another start until July 25, a span of 10 outings, but the A's have been on fire recently with the southpaw. Oakland owns a 5-1 record in Braden's last six starts since he was activated from the disabled list right after the All-Star Break. The competition hasn't been a cakewalk either, as the A's faced the White Sox twice, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rangers in this stretch.

Out of the five no-hitters/perfect games thrown this season, the Rays have been involved in three of them. Tampa Bay finally turned the trick after getting no-hit twice when Matt Garza threw the first no-hitter in franchise history against the Tigers on July 26. Garza went into a similar post-no-no funk like Braden, except his slump lasted only three starts. The Tampa Bay righty shut down the dynamic Rangers' lineup in a 10-1 blowout last Tuesday, throwing seven scoreless innings and striking out 10. Garza is 1-2 in three career starts against the A's, while losing in his only appearance at the Coliseum last April.

Oakland grabbed the first two meetings of this series in similar fashion, rallying from early deficits to win by one run apiece. The A's own a solid 19-4 record at home during day games this season, while riding a nine-game winning streak in this situation.

Reds at Dodgers - 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati exorcised its demons in Los Angeles on Friday night, ending a 12-game losing streak at Chavez Ravine with a 3-1 victory. The Reds have gathered themselves after getting swept by the Cardinals, racking up seven straight wins to reclaim the lead atop the NL Central. The Dodgers are running on fumes, as Los Angeles will likely miss the playoffs for the first time in Joe Torre's three-year regime as manager.

The Reds turn to veteran Bronson Arroyo (13-7, 3.87 ERA) to win the series finale, as the right-hander is coming off a win in his last start at Arizona. Cincinnati continues to dominate in Arroyo's road starts, compiling a 10-3 record in his highway outings, including seven straight quality starts. Arroyo has turned into an 'under' machine, cashing in seven of his previous eight outings. Winning at Dodger Stadium has not been something Arroyo has done in his career, owning an 0-4 mark in four starts.

Clayton Kershaw (11-7, 3.03 ERA) snapped a three-start winless streak with a 6-0 victory over the Rockies last Tuesday. Amazingly, the Dodgers are 2-5 in Kershaw's seven starts since the All-Star Break, including losses to the Giants twice, Phillies, and Cardinals. The southpaw has dominated during the day, owning a 5-1 mark and ERA of 1.79 under the sun. The Reds haven't been able to figure out Kershaw, as the left-hander has struck out 18 and allowed three earned runs in two wins over Cincinnati in two tries.

The Reds have cleaned up on the road recently, winning 11 of their last 12 away from the Great American Ballpark. Runs have come at a premium for the Dodgers, plating two runs or less seven times in the last 10 games, resulting in seven 'unders.'

Angels at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

The Sunday card wraps up at Target Field, as Los Angeles concludes its abysmal six-road trip against red-hot Minnesota. The Twins have surged past the White Sox in the AL Central to take a 4 ½-game advantage in the division. Minnesota has helped its cause with a 16-5 mark against the AL West, while Los Angeles is struggling to reach the .500 plateau.

Scott Baker (10-9, 4.85 ERA) hasn't put up the greatest numbers recently, but the Twins are winning when the righty takes the mound. Minnesota is 5-0 in his last five starts, despite only two of those outings being quality ones. Baker was the beneficiary of solid offensive performances from the Twins in a pair of wins over the White Sox to help extend their lead in the division over the past week. The right-hander hasn't seen the same fortune against the Angels, as Minnesota is 1-7 in his eight career starts, with only one outing coming at home.

The Halos send out ace Jered Weaver (11-8, 3.05 ERA), who tries to bounce back from an awful effort at Boston in Tuesday's 6-0 setback. The league leader in strikeouts (186) hasn't fared well away from Southern California, owning an ERA of 4.40 ERA and 6-6 mark on the road. The consistent trend to take from Weaver since the start of July is the 9-0-1 'under' run, as the Angels tallied two runs or less seven times in this stretch. The tall righty beat the Twins on Opening Day, scattering five hits and three earned runs in six innings of a 6-3 triumph.

The Halos are just 2-6 in the final game of a road trip this season, while owning a 6-18 mark on the highway since June 20. The Twins are riding a 10-1 run at home, as Minnesota is 22-6 over the last month of action.

**Kaptain** · 08-22-2010, 12:06 PM

Have a good sunday bum....go get em

**StarDust Bum** · 08-22-2010, 02:25 PM

Vikings, 49ers battle in prime time Sunday night

Minnesota (1-0) at San Francisco (1-0), Sunday, 8:00 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: San Francisco -3.5 Total: 35
The biggest question in San Francisco on Sunday night won’t have anything to do with the 49ers; it’ll focus entirely on who is under center for the Vikings. The summer drama that is Brett Favre is quickly becoming an August tradition, and Favre is now back with the Vikings. Of course, the way Sage Rosenfels started the preseason, there may be no need for Favre. Rosenfels was 23-34 for 310 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 28-7 win over St. Louis. The Vikings defense was equally as impressive, only allowing the Rams only 150 yards of offense.
The 49ers opened the preseason in grand style with a 37-17 rout of the Colts in Indianapolis. David Carr was solid in relief of Alex Smith, connecting on 9-of-11 attempts for 98 yards and a TD. Rookie Anthony Dixon handled the load on the ground, rushing 21 times for 100 yards. The 49ers will have to take better care of the ball this week. Smith threw an INT and the team fumbled four times (losing three) vs. Indy.

After the strong defensive effort against St. Louis, the FoxSheets like Minnesota here:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. (27-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-22-2010, 02:54 PM

Disregard early post..it was yesterday's.....

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
08/21/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
08/20/10 4-6-0 40.00% -1300 Detail
08/19/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
08/17/10 9-3-0 75.00% +2850 Detail
08/15/10 3-3-0 50.00% -150 Detail
08/14/10 2-4-0 33.33% -1200 Detail
08/13/10 5-5-0 50.00% -250 Detail
08/12/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
08/10/10 5-5-0 50.00% -250 Detail
08/08/10 5-3-0 62.50% +850 Detail
08/07/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
08/06/10 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
08/05/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
08/04/10 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
08/03/10 5-4-1 55.56% +300 Detail
08/01/10 5-5-0 50.00% -250 Detail
Totals 54-51-1 51.43% -1050

Sunday, August 22Game Score Status Pick Amount

Phoenix - 3:00 PM ET Phoenix +7.5 500 *****
San Antonio - Under 173.5 500 *****

Washington - 3:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500
Atlanta - Under 160.5 500 *****

Connecticut - 4:00 PM ET Connecticut +7.5 500 *****
New York - Over 155 500 *****

Minnesota - 5:00 PM ET Minnesota +9 500
Indiana - Over 150.5 500 *****

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