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**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 12:07 AM

Friday Tips

As August winds down, and preseason football is coming to the forefront of gamblers, the pennant races in each league continue to heat up around baseball. Three teams are separated by 2 ½ games in the NL Wild Card race, with the two teams trailing hooking up in St. Louis. Elsewhere, the Twins look to stay hot against the ice-cold Angels at Target Field. We'll start in Boston with two AL East teams that will likely miss the postseason, but have been viable clubs all season.

Blue Jays at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Toronto travels back east after dropping two of three at Oakland, including a 5-4 setback in the rubber game on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Boston continues to grab victories, but it's tough to pick up ground when Tampa Bay and New York keep winning atop the division. The Sox send out their ace in the series opener, while trying to avenge a meltdown in Toronto one week ago.

Boston was looking for a sweep at Rogers Center as the Sox built a 5-2 advantage on August 12, but Jonathan Papelbon squandered the lead and the Jays rallied for a 6-5 triumph. Jon Lester (13-7, 2.80 ERA) take the hill for the Sox, going for his third straight win. Following four consecutive losses after the All-Star Break, Lester picked up a pair of victories at New York and Texas in scoreless efforts. The southpaw has burned backers in his last three home starts, losing as favorites of $2.45, $2.50, and $1.55.

Brett Cecil (9-6, 3.96 ERA) is coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing seven earned runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings of a 7-2 defeat at Los Angeles. The seven runs given up by the Jays' lefty equaled the amount of runs Cecil allowed in his previous four starts combined. Toronto owns a 6-3 record in Cecil's nine outings as a road underdog, including three wins at Tampa Bay and New York. Cecil was outdueled by Lester at Rogers Center on April 28, as the Sox shut out the Jays, 2-0.

The Sox have owned this series, going 9-2 this season, including a 2-1 mark at Fenway. Each of the last three meetings finished 'over' the total, while two of the three matchups in Boston cashed the 'under'.

Giants at Cardinals - 8:10 PM EST

Two teams knocking on the playoff door in the National League are playing their worst baseball at the worst possible time, as they meet at Busch Stadium. St. Louis looks to snap a four-game skid, losing each contest at home to Chicago and Milwaukee. San Francisco hasn't performed well on the East Coast recently, losing six of its last seven at Atlanta and Philadelphia.

The Cards try to get over the hump with recently acquired Jake Westbrook (1-0, 3.32 ERA) taking the mound. Despite one win in three starts since getting traded from Cleveland at the deadline, Westbrook has delivered quality outings in each appearance. The groundball pitcher has won only three decisions since mid-June, with all three victories coming at home, including last Friday's 6-3 triumph over the Cubs.

Rookie Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 3.27 ERA) goes for the Giants, trying to pick up his fifth road win in seven tries. The San Francisco southpaw was taken off the hook in his last outing against San Diego as the Giants rallied for a 3-2 win in extra-innings. Bumgarner scattered eight hits and two earned runs in seven innings, only his third quality start in his previous six outings. The Giants have cashed the 'under' in seven of Bumgarner's last nine starts, and eight of his 10 outings overall.

All three meetings at AT&T Park in April finished 'under' the total, as the Giants grabbed two of three games. San Francisco is 4-3 the last seven matchups at Busch Stadium, while the two teams split a four-game set in St. Louis in 2009.

Angels at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

A pair of playoff squads from a season ago is headed in different directions as Minnesota and Los Angeles meet up for the first time since the opening series of the season. The Twins are starting to open things up in the AL Central following another series win over the White Sox, owning a five-game advantage heading into Thursday's action.

The Halos went from the ALCS to possibly third place in their own division in less than 12 months, as Dan Haren (1-3, 3.44 ERA) makes his sixth start in an Angels' uniform. The former Diamondbacks' ace has received little run support in Los Angeles, as the Halos have averaged 2.4 in his first five outings. Haren has not been listed as an underdog with the Angels, but Arizona was 0-7 in his seven starts at plus-money.

Brian Duensing (6-1, 2.00 ERA) is fresh off a complete-game shutout over the A's, scattering three hits in a 2-0 victory. Duensing has faced four teams sitting below .500, with the Rays being the only substantial club that the lefty has started against. In Duensing's last three home starts dating back to last September, the Minnesota southpaw hasn't allowed a run in 22.1 innings of work.

The Twins won three of four meetings in Anaheim to begin the season, as the Angels make their first appearance at Target Field. The two teams split six games at the Metrodome last season, as both squads pulled off three-game sweeps.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 12:08 AM

MLB News and Notes

While the schedule or a key injury can certainly play a dramatic role in performance over a short period of time in a baseball season, breaking down performance in the current snapshot of games can provide much more telling results about future performance than a glance at the current season standings. Here are MLB observations based on what has happened so far in August, with a few teams providing surprising results.

Top Scoring Teams

Houston Astros: Even the most astute handicappers would probably not guess that the Astros have been the top scoring team so far this month. Only the Pirates have been a worse scoring team in the National League for the season and the Astros own a season team average of .247. Even after dumping some of its biggest stars at the trade deadline the Astros have played respectable ball of late and typically this team is priced as underdogs or very slight favorites in most match-ups even with solid starters like Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez. The August schedule has included series with St. Louis and Atlanta so these numbers do not appear to be fluky, though they are a bit inflated by a couple of big games.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers remain well below .500 and any faint hopes of getting back in the playoff chase continue to dim. That said this is a team that can score runs, averaging over 5.1 runs per game for the season. Only the Reds have scored more runs for the season among NL teams and nothing has changed in August with 5.4 runs scored per game. It should be no surprise that the Brewers have been one of the top ‘over’ teams in baseball as the pitching staff continues to struggle. Milwaukee could find some opportunities as underdogs in upcoming games having cashed four times as +140 or greater underdogs since the All Star break. With 24 remaining games against playoff contenders the Brewers also have spoiler potential if the offense stays hot.

Lowest Scoring Teams

Kansas City Royals: Due to injuries and trades the Royals lack the same lineup as early in the season but the problems remain the same, a strong batting average but limited run production. Kansas City owns the third highest team average in baseball at .275 but rank 22nd in runs scored, barely averaging four runs per game. A lack of power is a big factor as Yuniesky Betancourt hit his team leading 11th home run this week and only Seattle and Oakland have hit fewer home runs this season. The Royals are a respectable 38-44 since Ned Yost took over but the run production has fallen this month, scoring just 35 runs in 15 games for a 2.3 runs per game average. Losing David DeJesus and Scott Podsednik has decreased the amount of base runners for the Royals and the current youthful lineup should be in line for more low-scoring games.

New York Mets: The Mets remain at the edge of playoff contention thanks to its pitching staff and a low-scoring ballpark but the limited run production continues to haunt this team. The Mets have out-scored just seven teams on the year despite being a near-.500 squad but the August production has turned even worse. The Mets have played more road games than home games so far this month but New York has allowed nearly twice as many runs as they have scored, averaging just 2.3 runs per game. With Atlanta and Philadelphia playing well and the recent injuries and distractions no one is pretending that this team is still in the playoff hunt so the lackluster performances could continue. The Mets are still getting strong pitching performances from the starters so the ‘under’ should still be a favorable option in most match-ups, going 25-15-1 since July 1.

Worst Pitching Teams

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs were the least profitable team to back in baseball before August and things have not improved with a 4-12 record so far this month. Trading Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, and shopping Derek Lee should only make matters worse for this team. While Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have made respectable starts of late the Cubs are clearly in tank mode, starting several rookie pitchers in recent weeks and looking to the future. Chicago has allowed 99 runs in 16 August games, an average of nearly 6.2 runs allowed per game. Chicago is just 1-7 in home games this month to add to their bankroll burning pace. On offense the Cubs rank fairly average among other MLB teams, still holding strong home run numbers. The Cubs have the second fewest stolen bases in baseball and the most errors committed, which are two often overlooked factors that have not helped the cause.

Detroit Tigers: The free fall for the Tigers has been remarkable. Detroit led the AL Central just before the All Star break but the team has gone 10-23 since the break. Injuries could be blamed for some of the struggles with Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, and Carlos Guillen hitting the DL in the same week at one point but the Tigers pitching staff deserves most of the blame. The offense still has MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera and several young players have stepped up with promising performances. The bullpen and starting staff which was among the best in baseball in the first three months of the season has been a disaster of late. The Tigers have allowed 5.4 runs per game in August despite playing ten of 16 games at home. In the last ten games the Tigers own a 4.91 staff ERA including a 6.46 ERA in the bullpen. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer remain quality starting options but the rest of the staff has provided little support.

Surprising August Records

Good: Baltimore (10-6), Arizona (9-7), Seattle (8-7)

Bad: Florida (5-9), Oakland (6-9), New York Yankees (7-9)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 10:51 AM

Underdog Eagles visit Cincinnati Friday

Philadelphia (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-1), Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Cincinnati -3 Total: 35.5
Both Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick contributed to the Eagles’ 28-27 win over the Jaguars in their preseason opener. Kolb was 6-11 for 95 yards, while Vick went threw for 119 yards (11-17, INT) and ran for 50 yards and a TD on six carries. Third-string QB Mike Kafka pitched in as well, leading the Eagles to the deciding FG in the fourth quarter. The Eagles defense did not perform as well, particularly against the pass, allowing a pair of long TD passes in a 17-point second quarter for the Jaguars and a 55-yard score near the end of the third quarter.
The Bengals bounced back from their 16-7 loss to Dallas in the Hall of Fame Game to post a 33-24 win over the Broncos on Sunday. Carson Palmer played three series, connecting on 12 of 15 pass attempts for 105 yards while leading his team to seven points. Terrell Owens caught four passes for 23 yards, while Chad Ochocinco caught just one ball for four yards. Rookie Jordan Shipley from Texas recorded five receptions for 50 yards.

With a pair of starting-caliber QBs in Kolb and Vick, there is not much dropoff at that key position when the Eagles go to their second stringers. Expect their offense to have an edge over the Bengal defense in the second half. A look at the FoxSheets also shows: Play On - Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the third week of the preseason. (41-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (69.5%, +21.2 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 11:27 AM

NFL Betting Odds: Bengals, Eagles in Friday battle

Are the Cincinnati Bengals as bad as they looked during the Hall of Fame Game, or as good as they looked when they rolled past Denver?

An answer may be forthcoming on Friday night when the Bengals host Philadelphia. Game time is 5 p.m. (PT) with FOX televising.

The Bengals currently are 3-point NFL betting favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 37.

Cincinnati lost 16-7 to Dallas as 3-point favorites in the Hall of Fame Game played in Canton, Ohio. The combined 23 points dipped ‘under’ the 33-point total.

The Bengals played much better this past Sunday beating the Broncos, 33-24, as 3 ½-point home favorites. The Broncos scored on the final play to make the final score semi-respectable. The combined 57 points sailed ‘over’ the 33-point total.

Philadelphia opened its preseason by nipping Jacksonville, 28-27, last Friday failing to cover as 3-point home favorites. The combined 55 points soared ‘over’ the 33-point total

The ‘over’ has cashed in 11 of Philadelphia’s past 13 preseason games.

Cincinnati’s first-team offense compiled 150 yards in three series versus the Broncos with Carson Palmer going 12-for-15 for 105 yards. Palmer distributed the ball to five different receivers. Terrell Owens caught four of Palmer’s 12 completions.

The Bengals finished a disappointing 26th in passing last year. They’ve fortified the wide receiver position by signing Owens and drafting tight end Jermaine Gresham in the first round and Jordan Shipley in the third round.

Cincinnati’s reserves outscored Denver in the second half, 16-7. Asked during a press conference how long his first-stringers might play against the Eagles, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said, “They’ll play a little more than they did last week.”

Speculation is the Bengals’ starters could play as long as the first half. A number of players have been ruled out for Cincinnati with the biggest name being wide receiver Antonio Bryant (knee). Don’t look for reserve running back Brian Leonard to play either due to a foot injury.

Keep in mind the Bengals are coming off a short week having beaten Denver five days ago. The Eagles last played seven days ago.

Kevin Kolb was 6-of-11 throwing for 95 yards and backup Michael Vick completed 11-of 17 for 119 yards and ran for 50 yards in the Eagles’ one-point win. David Akers was in mid-season form booting five field goals in five attempts. It was the Eagles’ first game in 11 seasons without Donovan McNabb on the roster.

The bad news for the Eagles was their second-string defense allowed Jacksonville backup quarterback Luke McCown to pass for 244 yards and three touchdowns.

The Eagles concluded one of their longest and more grueling training camps in the 12 years Andy Reid has been head coach. Reid said his team ran 200 more plays than last year during training camp.

Look for the Eagles to possibly work on their blitz packages after giving up 27 touchdowns through the air in 2009 while finishing 19th in scoring defense. The Eagles surrendered at least 20 points to all but two of their last 10 opponents.

Mike McGlynn is making a bid to start at center for Philadelphia. The Eagles will be missing two other centers – Jamaal Jackson (knee) and Nick Cole (knee) – along with guard Todd Herreman (foot). Cornerback Asante Samuels (hamstring) and running back Mike Bell (calf) are game-time decisions.

The Eagles lost on the road to Indianapolis during their second preseason game last year, snapping a string of seven straight pointspread covers during Week 2 of their preseason slate.

The early weather forecast is for temperatures in the 80s with a slight wind and a 10 percent chance of rain.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 11:28 AM

MLB Betting: Padres travel to meet Milwaukee

The San Diego Padres reached a milestone on Wednesday when they beat the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The win was the Friars' 72nd of the season, making them the first team in the major leagues to top the oddsmaker’s predictions.

The preseason 'over/under/' line for Padres wins this season was 71 ½.

Bettors smart enough to figure out that San Diego would be the surprise team in the National League will have to wait until the season ends to bank their winnings. The beat goes on for the Padres on Friday when they make their first and only trip to Miller Park to begin a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Padres have been dominant against the National League Central so far, posting a 21-5 record versus the division heading into their finale at Chicago on Thursday.

However, they will be facing a Brew crew that returns home fresh off a two-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals and looking for revenge after losing three of four at Petco Park from April 29-May 2.

Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo came away with the only win in that series, limiting the Padres to one run and six hits over seven innings and whiffing 11. The Brewers were shut out in the other three games in San Diego.

Gallardo is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA in five starts since returning from an oblique strain that put him on the disabled list.

Milwaukee is 5-2 in Gallardo’s last seven starts at Miller Park, but just 2-6 in his last eight outings against NL-West tenants.

Wade LeBlanc makes his first career start at Miller Park. The Padres southpaw pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Brewers on April 29, scattering eight hits and striking out six.

San Diego is 5-0 in LeBlanc’s last five starts versus losing teams and 6-1 in his last seven appearances against NL-Central foes.

The Padres have thrived against teams on the minus side of the ledger, winning 51 of 76 and they have cashed in eight of their last 11 against Milwaukee.

The Brewers have won five of six at home versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, but they have lost 11 of their past 16 against left-handers.

The MLB odds ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last seven series encounters, including the last four in Milwaukee.

San Diego has dipped ‘under’ in seven of its last nine series opener. The Brewers have topped the ‘total’ at a 5-0-1 clip recently against southpaws.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 11:29 AM

CFL Betting Preview: Argos host Tiger-Cats

Heading into a bye week, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats would like nothing better than to pin a loss on the Argonauts to tighten things up in the East division. This Week 8 matchup is scheduled for Friday, August 20 at the Rogers Centre in Toronto with kickoff at 4:30 p.m. (PT).

Both teams come into this game riding a two game winning streak. Hamilton's 3-4 record has it currently two games behind 5-2 Toronto in the East making this its biggest game in the first half of the CFL regular season. It will be the first of three meetings between these two teams this year.

The Tiger-Cats are coming off back-to-back wins over Winnipeg. In Week 6 at home they survived a furious comeback attempt by the Blue Bombers to hold onto win 29-22. Their Week 7 road game was never close as the Cats opened up an 18 point lead at the half en route to a 39-28 victory.

One of the main keys to Hamilton’s success this season has been the play of QB Kevin Glenn. He is currently ranked third in the league with 2,164 passing yards and 14 TD passes. It also helps that he has the league’s leading receiver, Arland Bruce III. Bruce is currently at the top of the CFL with 45 receptions for 744 yards and five TD’s.

One area where the Tiger-Cats have really struggled is running the ball. DeAndra' Cobb is the team’s leading rusher with 335 yards on 84 carries, but as a team they are ranked last in league, averaging just 77.4 rushing yards per game.

Toronto has been the biggest surprise in the league this season. After winning just seven games the last two seasons combined, the Argonauts have already won five this year including an impressive 37-22 win over Montreal last Saturday night. In that game QB Cleo Lemon only attempted 19 passes but he completed 13 of them for 269 yards and three TD’s. His primary target, Chad Owens caught six of those balls for a 163 yards and two scores.

The Argos' offensive stats are not that impressive as they are ranked seventh in total yards and sixth in points scored, but their ability to move the ball and score when they need to has provided the right formula for winning games.

Defense has not been the strong suit for either of these teams as they both rank in the bottom half of the league in several categories. The most telling stat is points allowed as the Tiger-Cats are ranked sixth giving up an average of 29 points per game and the Argonauts are fifth, giving up an average of 28.4.

The current CFL pointspread for this game as listed by SportsInteraction.com has Toronto favored by 2 ½ and the ‘over/under` line is 54. The series has been split 3-3 between the two teams in recent action. Hamilton has only won once on the road and Toronto has only won once at home.

Given that the spread is only 2 ½ and the fact that the only team that the Tiger-Cats seem to be able to beat is Winnipeg, take the Argonauts and the over in this matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 11:30 AM

MLB Odds: Red Sox look to beat up Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox look to continue their dominance over the Toronto Blue Jays as they begin a weekend series Friday night at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox are 9-3 against Toronto this year (2-1 at home). The Blue Jays are the only AL East opponent they’re over .500 against. The Rays (4-8), Yankees (5-7) and lowly Orioles (6-6) are the other division teams.

Boston (69-52) took two of three against Toronto north of the border last week. A sweep was blown on Thursday after the Blue Jays rallied for four runs in the ninth inning for a 6-5 win. Closer Jonathan Papelbon allowed three of the runs for his sixth blown save.

The Red Sox opened their nine-game homestand by going 2-0 against the Los Angeles Angels. The Thursday night result is still pending. They’re a remarkable 9-0 against the Angels this season. Boston is 5 ½-games back in both the AL East and wild-card race.

The Blue Jays (63-57) are in the midst of a grueling nine-game road trip. They had to fly all the way to the West Coast to play the Angels and A’s (going 3-3). They now have to travel 3000 miles back across the country.

Toronto at least had Thursday off and is 4-1 in its last five games following an off day. The team’s playoff hopes are pretty much shot, but it’s still fighting hard at 19-12 in the second half.

Brett Cecil will be the Toronto starter. He’s 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA after starting the season in Triple-A. He got hammered in his last start at the Angels, three homers and seven earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Cecil’s velocity was down against L.A., which was at least partially due to a knee injury. The 24-year-old lefty had six straight quality starts before that (2.05 ERA). Toronto is 5-0 in his last five starts against the AL East. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 6-0 in his last six division starts.

This is Cecil’s second start against the Red Sox this year. He allowed one earned run in six innings at home on April 28. He got crushed in his only career start at Fenway last May as a rookie (eight earned over 4 2/3 innings).

Jon Lester (13-7, 2.80 ERA) gets the call for Boston. He’s been keeping the team afloat along with Clay Buchholz (14-5, 2.36 ERA). The problem is high-priced starters Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka are terribly inconsistent.

The 26-year-old Lester has been masterful in his last two starts at the Yankees and Rangers. He allowed no earned runs over 14 1/3 innings and stopped a two-game losing streak each time.

Lester is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA against the Blue Jays this year. He’s 6-3 with a 2.47 ERA lifetime against them. The Red Sox are 5-1 in his last six starts against Toronto.

Second baseman Dustin Pedroia (foot) returned a couple of games ago and is 1-of-7 from the plate. Boston is still playing shorthanded with Kevin Youkilis (thumb) and Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) both likely out for the season. Toronto doesn’t have any significant injuries.

First pitch on Friday is 4:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear and in the upper 70s.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 11:31 AM

MLB Odds: Hot Twins host sinking Angels

Los Angeles and Minnesota begin a three-game series with Friday’s contest at Target Field. The Angels continue to play around .500 ball 120 games into the season, and they will have to make a serious push to catch Texas in the American League West standings. Coach Mike Scioscia’s team trails the Rangers by eight games, but has almost no shot of overtaking one of the AL East teams for a wild-card slot.

Minnesota has opened up a five-game advantage over Chicago in the AL Central standings. The Twins have gone a robust 21-5 their last 26 games overall, while the White Sox have stumbled to a 2-8 ledger their past 10 outings.

Los Angeles pitcher Dan Haren (8-11, 4.37 ERA) heads to the hill for the first time since Sunday’s setback to Toronto as a 140 home MLB odds favorite, 4-1. The Pepperdine product went seven innings, allowing four runs on nine hits (one home run) with a walk and five strikeouts on 105 pitches.

The combined five runs failed to eclipse the 7 ½-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-0-1 his previous four starts. The 29-year-old has just a 1-3 ledger since being acquired from Arizona, but he would have a better record with more run support.

Haren has not faced Minnesota since the 2007 season when he was with Oakland. The right-hander got a no-decision in that matchup, tossing six innings while surrendering two runs on seven hits with three walks and three strikeouts. The Athletics dropped that contest as a 107 road selection, 4-3, while the combined seven runs went ‘under’ the eight-run closing total.

Los Angeles, 27-34 away from home, concludes a six-game road trip with this series before returning home for six games against AL East squads Tampa Bay and Baltimore. The Angels have struggled to a dismal 5-17 road record the past 22 games.

Minnesota southpaw Brian Duensing (6-1, 2.00 ERA) recorded his first career complete game with Saturday’s victory over Oakland as a 128 home ‘chalk,’ 2-0. The second-year player was reached for just three hits with two walks and four strikeouts on 104 pitches. All three hits came in the first three innings of the game.

The two runs never seriously threatened the eight-run closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash his second straight start. The 27-year-old had started seven straight road games before upending the Athletics.

Duensing has never started against Los Angeles in his brief major league career.

Minnesota, 38-20 at Target Field, wraps up a nine-game homestand with this series before traveling to AL West teams Texas and Seattle. The Twins have opened up some space between them and Chicago after going 9-1 its past 10 games. The ‘under’ has gone 7-2-1 their last 10 home games.

Friday’s forecast for Minneapolis calls for scattered thunderstorms and a 60 percent chance of rain, with a high of 86 degrees and a low of 68.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:43 PM

Handicapping trends point to heavily favored Phils behind Halladay

Washington (52-69) at Philadelphia (68-52), 7:05 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Philadelphia -380, Washington +280 Total: 8
Washington travels to Philadelphia Friday night to start a three-game series with the NL Wild Card leaders. The Phillies loss to the Giants last night dropped their lead in the Wild Card standings to just one game, while they trail the NL East leading Braves by 2.5 games.
The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 19 games in the City of Brotherly Love. Despite their loss last night, the Phillies have won 20 of their last 26 games overall and are 17-3 in their last 20 home games.

Roy Halladay (15-8, 2.24 ERA) will take the mound for the Phillies. Halladay has won his last five starts while posting a 1.62 ERA over that span. Halladay is 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in his last seven starts against the Nationals/Expos.

Jason Marquis (0-5, 14.33 ERA) is going in the opposite direction than Halladay. Marquis is winless in his five starts this season, failing to pitch five innings in any of his outings. In two starts against the Phillies this season Marquis has allowed 12 ER on 14 hits in just 8.1 IP. Marquis, who won 11+ games per year from 2004 to 2009, missed more than three months this season with bone chips in his right elbow.

Halladay’s recent dominance combined with Marquis woeful performance this season (2.45 WHIP is higher than Halladay’s ERA) makes the Phillies the pick despite the monster spread.

According to FoxSheets HALLADAY is 90-34 (+34.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HALLADAY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*).

FoxSheets also favor the under: HALLADAY is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. (Team's Record) The average score was HALLADAY 2.5, OPPONENT 1.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:44 PM

King Felix looks to continue his dominance of the Yankees

Seattle (48-73) at New York Yankees (75-46), 7:05 p.m. EDT, Line: New York -148, Seattle +138 Total: 8
The Mariners travel to the Bronx tonight to start a three-game series against the AL East leading Yankees. The Yankees lead the Rays by one game in the standings entering play today.
Seattle took 2-of-3 the last time they visited Yankee Stadium, but the Yankees have won 11 of the last 14 meetings at home.

Felix Hernandez (8-10, 2.62 ERA) will get the start for the Mariners. Hernandez is 1-5 in his last seven starts, but has allowed just 13 ER in 51.1 innings (2.28 ERA). Hernandez has been excellent against the Yankees in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA and throwing complete games in all three.

A.J. Burnett (9-10, 4.66 ERA) will take the mound for the Yankees. Burnett is winless in his last three starts (0-2, 5.49 ERA). In five career starts against the Mariners, Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA.

Hernandez’s recent dominance of the Yankees makes the Mariners the pick in this one despite being the underdog.

FoxSheets shows us that HERNANDEZ is 22-10 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.8, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 0*).

This FoxSheets trend favors the under: HERNANDEZ is 13-3 UNDER (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was HERNANDEZ 2.8, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:44 PM

Jays open three-game series in Fenway

Toronto (63-57) at Boston (69-53), 7:10 p.m. EDT, Line: Boston -180, Toronto +170 Total: 8
The Blue Jays and Red Sox start a three-game series in Boston Friday night. The Red Sox find themselves 6.5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East and 5.5 games back of the Rays in the AL Wild Card.
The Blue Jays have won four of the last six meetings in Boston, but Toronto usually struggles at Fenway Park, winning just five of their last 16 games there.

Brett Cecil (9-6, 3.96 ERA) will start for the Blue Jays, while Jon Lester (13-7, 2.80 ERA) gets the start for the Red Sox. Cecil has struggled against Boston, going 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA in three career starts. In his only career start at Fenway Park on May 20, 2009, Cecil allowed 8 ER and 11 hits in just 4.2 innings.

After losing four straight starts, Jon Lester has rebounded in his last two starts going 2-0 and not allowing a run in his 14.1 innings. Lester will be making his first start against the Blue Jays at Fenway Park since May 21, 2009. His last five starts against the Blue Jays have been at Rogers Centre. In these last six starts against the Blue Jays, Lester in 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA.

Lester’s strong recent performances and his history against the Blue Jays make the heavily-favored Red Sox the pick in this one.

FoxSheets says: LESTER is 24-3 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was LESTER 6.0, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:45 PM

Angels travel to Minnesota to face red-hot Twins

Los Angeles Angels (61-61) at Minnesota (70-51), 8:10 p.m. EDT, Line: Minnesota -150, Los Angeles +140, Total: 8
The Angels will try to keep their slim postseason hopes alive as they travel to Minnesota to take on the AL Central leading Twins. The Angels enter play seven games behind the Rangers in the West. The Angels are in serious danger of missing the postseason for the first time since 2006. They have qualified for the postseason in six of the previous eight seasons.
The Twins enter play four games ahead of the White Sox in the Central. They are an MLB best 24-9 since the All-Star break. They have won 15 of 20 games against the AL West so far this season, including taking 3-of-4 from L.A. in the opening series of 2010.

Dan Haren (8-11, 4.37 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels against Twins southpaw Brian Duensing (6-1, 2.00 ERA). Haren is 1-3 with a 3.44 ERA in his five starts since joining the Angels from Arizona this season. Haren’s team is just 2-10 in his last 12 starts overall.

Duensing has been solid for the Twins this season. Since joining the rotation from the bullpen on July 23, Duensing is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA, which includes a three-hit shutout in his last start vs. Oakland.

Considering Haren’s struggles this season and the Twins’ hot play since the break and success against the AL West, Minnesota is the pick in this one.

FoxSheets says: HAREN is 9-17 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record) The average score was HAREN 3.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:46 PM

Giants and Cardinals both look to turn things around

San Francisco (68-54) at St. Louis (65-53), 8:15 p.m. EDT, Line: St. Louis -153, San Francisco +143, Total: 8
The Giants continue their six-game road trip, as they start a three-game set in St. Louis. The Giants enter play one game back of the Phillies for the NL Wild Card, and six games back of the Padres in the NL West. The Cardinals enter play a season-high 3.5 games back of the Reds in the NL Central, and also trail the Phillies by two games in the Wild Card race.
The Cardinals have tied their season-high with four straight losses, while the Giants have lost six of their last eight road games.

Giants rookie Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 3.27 ERA) will take the mound against Jake Westbrook (7-7, 4.48 ERA). After winning four straight starts, Bumgarner is 0-2 in his last four starts. All of Bumgarner’s four wins this season have come on the road (4-2, 2.87 ERA in six road starts).

Jake Westbrook is 1-0 in his three starts since joining St. Louis from Cleveland, but the Cardinals have lost two of those three starts. Westbrook will be making his first career start against the Giants.

The Giants have played very well against the NL Central this season and this FoxSheets stat makes them the pick even as the underdog. SAN FRANCISCO is 22-8 (+12.7 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.4, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-20-2010, 06:46 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 8/20-8/22

If late August baseball clashes between competing teams in the playoff races are your thing, then this weekend in Major League Baseball is probably not for you. Of the 15 series’ going on, only one pits current playoff contenders against one another, that coming in St. Louis, where the Cardinals host the Giants. However, if you’re indifferent to that type of drama and just prefer to get some solid wagering action down, then this weekend’s slate is as good as any. I’m here to help with that, looking at some of the series’ you will be handicapping while also revealing this weekend’s list of Top ******* Power Trends to consider.

As indicated earlier, the key series in baseball this weekend matches the Giants and Cardinals, the two teams closest to Philadelphia in the race for the N.L.’s wildcard position heading into the weekend. St. Louis is just a game back of the Phillies but has given up ground of late, losing its last four games. The Giants are two games out that wildcard spot, but like the Cardinals, have scuffled a bit of late, yielding ground during a current 6-9 swoon through August. This will be just the second meeting of the season between these teams, with San Francisco having taken two of three back in April at home. All three of those games went under the total, producing a combined nine runs.

The divisional leaders in the National League will all be on the road this weekend. Atlanta, which maintains a 2.5-game lead over Philadelphia in the East, will be in Chicago taking on the Cubs. The hosts have officially thrown in the towel on this season, and perhaps the current era, as they have unloaded their roster in trades for prospects and find themselves 20.5-games out of the Central lead behind Cincinnati. The Braves haven’t exactly set the world on fire on the road though this season, going just 27-33. The Reds are in Los Angeles where they have historically struggled, losing their last 12 games to the Dodgers. However, chances are much better they can get it done now, since they are on a 6-game winning streak in which they have scored 40 runs. Finally, the Padres, leading the West by 6-games, head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers.

The most exciting race currently in the American League is being staged by the Yankees and Rays in the East. The teams are separated by a single game for both the division lead and the best overall record in the majors. On paper, the division leading Yankees have the big edge this weekend, playing host to the lowly Mariners, who are just 19-41 on the road this season. The Rays meanwhile, are in Oakland, facing the tough A’s pitching staff. The A’s already took game one of the 4-game set on Thursday night, 4-3, behind another solid starting outing from Trevor Cahill.

The Red Sox are starting to make some noise once again behind the Yankees & Rays but they are still 5.5-games behind Tampa for the A.L. Wildcard spot. Boston hosts Toronto this weekend, but the Jays are also playing well, having gone 22-15 since the 4th of July holiday. The Red Sox bats seem to have awoken from a slumber, as they have scored 5.4 runs per game during their current 6-4 surge. They host this series and another at home against Seattle before heading to Tampa next weekend for what could be a do or die set. Elsewhere, the other divisional leaders, Minnesota and Texas, will be at home versus the Angels, and at Baltimore, respectively.

Now, here’s a look at those top ******* Power Trends promised earlier for this weekend’s action:

ATLANTA at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 12-30 (-15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

NY METS at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 5-31 (-22.7 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.8, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 4*)

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA

PHILADELPHIA is 13-2 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at FLORIDA

FLORIDA is 6-14 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.1, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at MILWAUKEE

SAN DIEGO is 22-5 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.6, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 3*)

SAN FRANCISCO at ST LOUIS

SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 UNDER (+12.1 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)

COLORADO at ARIZONA

ARIZONA is 46-28 OVER (+16.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was ARIZONA 4.7, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 2*)

CINCINNATI at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 21-30 (-12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at NY YANKEES

SEATTLE is 4-18 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season. The average score was SEATTLE 2.6, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 33-17 UNDER (+13.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.3, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 2*)

CLEVELAND at DETROIT

DETROIT is 16-30 (-21.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 3.7, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)

TORONTO at BOSTON

TORONTO is 32-26 (+10.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was TORONTO 4.7, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA is 40-24 (+14.4 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 4.7, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

CHI WHITE SOX at KANSAS CITY

CHI WHITE SOX are 22-13 OVER (+8.6 Units) vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at OAKLAND

TAMPA BAY is 11-24 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

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