Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:35 PM

Rays look to complete a three-game sweep of the Rangers

Texas (67-51) at Tampa Bay (73-46), 1:10 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: TampaBay -156, Texas +146 Total: 9
Tampa Bay hosts Texas Wednesday afternoon in hopes of sweeping their three-game set at Tropicana Field. The Rays have won four straight and find themselves tied with the Yankees for first in the AL East. The Rangers have lost two straight and six of their last nine, but are still eight games ahead of the Angels in the AL West.
Derek Holland (2-1, 4.19 ERA) will get the start for the Rangers. This will be Holland’s first start since May 30. Holland left that start after one inning due to shoulder stiffness after allowing three runs, three hits and three walks.

James Shields (10-11, 4.98 ERA) takes the hill for the Rays. After winning three straight starts, Shields has been pounded in his last two, giving up 12 ER and 19 hits in his nine innings.

Texas has struggled in day games this season going 14-17, while the Rays are 13-5 when playing on Wednesday.

FoxSheets show that TAMPA BAY is 78-31 (+31.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.3, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:35 PM

Handicapping signs point to Johnson, Florida

The Marlins and Pirates continue a 4-game set in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night and so far the teams have split two 6-run decisions, with Florida taking the latest encounter in shutout fashion on Tuesday night. That win, a key system, several strong trends, and stud pitcher Josh Johnson going for the Marlins are good signs of a potential repeat performance on Wednesday night. This game is certainly worthy of your consideration, both on the money line and run line. Sportsbook.com currently lists Florida as a -162 favorite, with an accompanying run line of -1.5 (-105).

Johnson didn't look anything like a Cy Young Award contender his last time out, failing to escape the fourth inning in his worst start in more than three years. The right-hander gave up six runs and 10 hits over 3 2-3 innings, failing to record a strikeout in a 7-2 loss at Cincinnati.

Following that rough outing with another seems rather unlikely, as he faces the Pirates and their NL-worst offense. Johnson's ERA has dropped from easily the best in the majors to fourth, but the Marlins (58-60) won't be surprised if he rebounds Wednesday at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.43 runs and hitting .241, both last in the NL.

The Pirates (40-79) mustered six hits against Ricky Nolasco and two relievers in a 6-0 loss Tuesday that evened the four-game set at 1-all. The Marlins held a closed-door meeting after Monday's 7-1 loss.

It's no surprise Pittsburgh has struggled to hit the premier pitching in the NL, but the numbers are still staggering. The nine pitchers other than Johnson that make up the league's top 10 in ERA are 8-2 with a 1.22 ERA in 12 starts against the Pirates.

Aside from who Pittsburgh faces, the presence of Ross Ohlendorf (1-9, 3.95) on the mound seems to guarantee the Pirates' bats will go cold. No starter who has pitched 50 innings has received less support than the 2.24 runs Ohlendorf averages.

The following money line system from FoxSheets gives Florida about an 80% chance of winning tonight, based upon Johnson’s prowess and Pittsburgh’s offensive ineptitude.

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. (68-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +40.9 units. Rating = 3*)

As indicated earlier, this is also a good potential run line spot, and a completely separate ******* system will be looking for its seventh straight win behind the Marlins this evening:

Play On - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (FLORIDA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (47-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +33.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-8, +31.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-46, +37.5 units).

The powerful information doesn’t stop there though, as numerous trends seem to indicate that Pittsburgh is in over its head for tonight’s game:

RUSSELL is 28-69 (-26.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.2, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

Of course, stranger things than a mild baseball upset on a Wednesday night in August have occurred in sports, but it certainly does look like as solid of a play as they come. We’ll see what happens when the Marlins and Pirates throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET tonight from PNC Park.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:36 PM

Atlanta looks to stay hot at home with Hudson

Washington (51-68) at Atlanta (70-49), 7:10 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Atlanta -230, Washington +205 Total: 7
The Nationals and Braves continue their three-game series tonight in Atlanta. The Braves have won three straight and eight of their last 10 games. Atlanta’s 43-16 home record is tops in the majors this season.
The Nationals have lost seven of their last nine and are 5-10 in August. Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.08 ERA) will get the start against Tim Hudson (14-5, 2.13 ERA). Hernandez has not fared well against the Braves in his career, going 8-16 with a 4.99 ERA.

Tim Hudson has been fantastic this season for Atlanta holding opponents to a career-low .212 BA. He has been basically unhittable in his last five starts, going 5-0 with a 0.49 ERA (2 ER in 36.2 IP). Hudson has also had great success against the Nationals/Expos in his career, going 10-1 with a minuscule 1.49 ERA in 16 starts.

FoxSheets says: HUDSON is 41-14 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HUDSON 5.8, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 0*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:37 PM

Handicapping trends favor Twins over ChiSox Wednesday night

Chicago White Sox (65-54) at Minnesota (69-50), 8:10 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Minnesota -148, Chicago White Sox +138 Total: 7
The White Sox and Twins will continue their three-game series at Target Field tonight. These two teams are going in opposite directions as the White Sox have lost three straight and seven of their last nine after holding a 1.5-game lead over the Twins on August 7. The Twins have won five straight and are an MLB-best 23-8 since the All-Star break.
Gavin Floyd (8-9, 3.70 ERA) will get the start for the White Sox. After starting the season 2-7 with a 4.80 ERA in his first 15 outings, Floyd has gone 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA in his last nine starts.

Twins starter Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.26 ERA) has also been outstanding of late, going 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last six starts. Liriano is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts against the White Sox this season.

The White Sox are 22-26 against AL Central clubs, while the Twins are 32-17 in division games.

According to FoxSheets, MINNESOTA is 19-3 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:37 PM

Reds look to stay hot behind Volquez

Cincinnati (68-51) at Arizona (47-73), 9:40 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Cincinnati -123, Arizona +113 Total: 9.5
The Reds and Diamondbacks continue their three-game series at Chase Field tonight. The Reds have won four straight and are two games up on St. Louis in the NL Central. They are trying to reach the postseason for the first time since 1995.
Edinson Volquez (3-1, 4.25 ERA) will get the start for the Reds. He has been masterful in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA. This will only be Volquez’s second career start against the Diamondbacks (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 BB, 8 K on 9/13/08).

Rodrigo Lopez (5-11, 4.93 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona. Lopez is 0-4 with a 6.69 ERA in his last six starts. The Diamondbacks are 9-15 when Lopez starts this season, while the Reds have won four straight and five of the six Volquez starts this year.

FoxSheets says: CINCINNATI is 26-11 (+13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.3, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:39 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Mets at Astros – The Mets are 8-0 since April 17, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $840. The Astros are 10-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home for a net profit of $1070.

Blue Jays at Athletics – The Blue Jays are 0-9 since April 17, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Athletics are 11-0 since April 25, 2010 as a favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100. The Athletics are 8-0 since April 25, 2010 at home and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $855. The Athletics are 8-0 since September 06, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $800

Nationals at Braves – The Nationals are 0-10 since May 16, 2010 as a road dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 8-0 since May 28, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $800.

Brewers at Cardinals – The Brewers are 0-6 since June 03, 2010 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Cardinals are 11-0 since April 16, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1100. The Cardinals are 10-0 since April 12, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts as a home favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1000.

Padres at Cubs – The Padres are 9-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The Cubs are 0-7 since July 31, 2010 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Reds at Diamondbacks – The Reds are 6-0 since May 29, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 18, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $705 when playing against.

Rockies at Dodgers – The Rockies are 0-6 since August 30, 2009 when Jason Hammel starts after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $610 when playing against. The Dodgers are 6-0 since September 16, 2009 when Hiroki Kuroda starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $600.

Mariners at Orioles – The Mariners are 0-6 since April 06, 2010 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $635 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-8 since May 16, 2010 and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Giants at Phillies – The Giants are 6-0 since July 03, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $730. The Phillies are 9-0 since July 23, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $970.

Marlins at Pirates – The Marlins are 7-0 since August 26, 2009 when Josh Johnson starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $720. The Pirates are 0-13 since May 22, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1300 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $720 when playing against.

Rangers at Rays – The Rays are 10-0 since July 05, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $1000.

Angels at Red Sox – The Angels are 0-5 since July 06, 2010 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-5 since June 30, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $770 when playing against.

Indians at Royals – The Indians are 0-9 since April 12, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $920 when playing against.

White Sox at Twins – The Twins are 10-0 since July 22, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1080. The Twins are 8-0 since June 09, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Tigers at Yankees – The Yankees are 0-5 since July 10, 2010 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-18-2010, 06:40 PM

Wednesday Tips

Plenty of teams are dropping out of the playoff race by the day as contending clubs try to solidify their positioning in October. The Twins look to widen the gap over the White Sox in the AL Central, while the Red Sox attempt to continue their domination of the Angels. We'll start at Citizens Bank Park with San Francisco and Philadelphia battling it out atop the NL Wild Card chase.

Giants at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

There are a number of scenarios that can place one of these two teams in the postseason, or leave them both out of October baseball. San Francisco sits four games behind San Diego in the NL West, while Philadelphia is just 2 ½ games back of Atlanta in the NL East. Realistically, the Giants have better shot at the Wild Card, but play 15 games the rest of the way against the Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Reds.

Matt Cain (9-9, 3.11 ERA) has been the epitome of the home/road dichotomy pitcher, as the Giants are 4-8 in his 12 away starts and 8-4 in his 12 outings at AT&T Park. Cain doesn't receive good run support on the road with the San Francisco averaging 2.8 runs/game, while the Giants have plated four runs in his last three away starts. The righty hasn't faced the Phillies since 2008, as Cain won at Citizens Bank Park as a $1.45 underdog by a 3-2 count.

The Phillies send out Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.69 ERA), who was bailed out by a massive rally in last Thursday's 10-9 victory over the Dodgers. Blanton allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings, his second straight start in which the Phillies beat the opponents' bullpen to get the righty off the hook. Philadelphia has managed to win seven of his 10 home starts, while cashing the 'over' in seven straight home outings.

Seven of the last nine meetings have finished 'under' the total, dating back to last July. San Francisco is riding a nice 'under' run on the road, going 5-2 to the 'under' the previous seven on the highway. Philadelphia owns a 15-2 home mark since July 8, while scoring at least six runs on nine occasions.

Angels at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

Boston has owned Los Angeles this season, winning the first seven meetings as the Red Sox avenged last October's sweep in the ALDS by the Angels. The Sox still have time to catch the Yankees and Rays in the AL East/AL Wild Card races, but Boston needs to make up 5 ½ games over the next six weeks. The Angels have been a disappointment this season, and now have to face an old friend in Tuesday's contest.

John Lackey (10-7, 4.54 ERA) looks for his first win in four starts, which coincidentally came against his ex-teammates in Anaheim on July 27. Lackey has beaten the Angels twice this season, allowing three earned runs in 14.1 innings, including the 4-2 win over the Halos in late July. The veteran right-hander lost out on a win in his last time out, as the Boston bullpen blew a late 5-2 lead in a 6-5 setback at Toronto last Thursday.

The Angels counter with Scott Kazmir (8-10, 6.36 ERA), who has not been very reliable this season. Kazmir has looked better in his last two outings, giving up three runs and seven hits in 11 innings, as the Angels split a pair of games against the Tigers and Blue Jays. The southpaw was touched up by the Sox in his last visit to Fenway, allowing six hits and seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of an 11-6 blowout loss.

Boston is 6-2 the previous eight meetings at Fenway, while holding the Angels to three runs or less in five of the seven matchups this season. The Sox own a 5-7 record the last 12 games at home, including five losses as a favorite of at least $1.50.

White Sox at Twins - 8:10 PM EST

The tight AL Central race between Chicago and Minnesota continues to get interesting as the two clubs play the second of a three-game set at Target Field. In a season series that has been dominated by the Twins, the White Sox need to make a statement as they face Minnesota just five more times the rest of the season.

Francisco Liriano (11-7, 3.26 ERA) looks to beat the Sox for the third time this season, as the Minnesota lefty is coming off a 6-1 victory on the South Side last Thursday. Liriano is fresh off four consecutive quality starts at home, including back-to-back scoreless efforts against the Mariners and Indians. The southpaw is 6-3 at Target Field this season, while Minnesota has tallied at least five runs in four of his previous five home starts.

The Sox send out Gavin Floyd (8-9, 3.70 ERA), who was on the losing end of that 6-1 setback to the Twins last week. Floyd allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings, equaling the amount of runs given up in his previous six starts combined. For as much fortune as Liriano has seen against the Sox, Floyd hasn't felt that kind of luck, losing both starts against Minnesota this season. The loss to the Twins also ended a streak of four straight outings of tossing seven innings.

Announcement

The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets MLB !

The Bum's Wednesday's Best Bets MLB !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment