Sunday's Trends and Indexes 8/15 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[Udog]

Oh, yeah. WNBA trend report went in last night.

[Udog]

NFL

What bettors need to know: Sunday's NFL preseason action

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 33.5)

Who’s in, who’s out

Most people tune in to Colts games to watch the magic of Peyton Manning. If that’s you, then you probably don’t need to bother with this one. Manning has thrown a total of seven passes combined in the last three years in the first preseason game and it’s highly unlikely he will see more than two series here.

The only thing he’ll be interested in working on here is his relationship with new centers because stalwart Jeff Saturday is out for up to six weeks with knee surgery. Manning has never cared about the preseason in the past and he’s not going to start now.

The 49ers have indicated that their starting offense will see more time than you might expect, especially rookie linemen Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. One guy we might not see a lot of is Michael Crabtree. The receiver sprained his neck slightly in practice this week. He’s not seriously hurt, but there is no reason not to be careful with him.

Line movement

The line has been stable at +3 - a strong number for a road team in preseason. The total opened at 34.5 and has adjusted downwards gradually.

Trends

The Colts were a notoriously bad preseason team under Tony Dungy and the tradition continues under Jim Caldwell. They were 1-3 ATS last year and showed little concern for the scoreboard.

Mike Singletary has only one gear and it’s a high one, so he doesn’t let up in any game. He was 3-1 ATS in his first camp last year. The Niners went under in three of four games.

Weather

With thunderstorms forecast the roof could be closed.




Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 32.5)

Who’s in, who’s out

All of the fan boys are giddy because Tim Tebow will see a fair bit of playing time Sunday. The highly-publicized rookie is not at the top of the depth chart and Kyle Orton is having a very strong camp, but starters won’t likely see a lot of action, so Tebow will get his chances. If he performs well, then expect the media coverage to escalate to truly ridiculous levels. Brady Quinn will have ample chances to disappoint as well.

The Broncos will likely work on their passing a fair bit in this one because they can’t afford to lose yet another running back after their top three rushers have gone down with injuries. Sack master Elvis Dumervil will also miss this game and the season.

Cincinnati has already played a preseason game, but it was so bad that the Bengals would probably rather forget about it. Like Denver, they are struggling with injuries. Antonio Bryant and Andre Smith are out and Rey Maualuga and Carlos Dunlap are back but banged up.

Tight end Jermaine Gresham will be making his home debut for the Bengals amidst a whole lot of hype. He won’t see a lot of his starting quarterback. Carson Palmer threw just five passes in the last game and won’t be much busier here. His little brother Jordan and J.T. O’Sullivan will pick up the slack.

Line movement

The line is sitting where it opened and doesn’t seem particularly vulnerable. The total has dropped from an opening 33.5.

Trends

Marvin Lewis has been a solid preseason performer with the Bengals. He is 15-12-1 ATS over his career. The totals are perfectly balanced 14-14 over/under in those games. Josh McDaniels was 2-2 ATS in his first preseason in Denver and covered his first game.

Weather

Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s and there is a good chance of thunderstorms.

[Udog]

MLB


Sunday, August 15

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Tips and Trends
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves [TBS | 1:35 PM ET]

Dodgers: Los Angeles is struggling right now, as they're on a losing streak at the worst time of their season. The Dodgers have fallen a full 10 games behind the National League West division lead. Los Angeles is 59-57 SU this year, including 23-33 SU on the road. Offensively, the Dodgers have only scored 16 runs in their 5 games against the Braves this season. Los Angeles is -8.79 units and -12.01 units both SU and on the RL this year. Veteran pitcher Vicente Padilla will make take the mound today, as he is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.00 this season. The Dodgers are 5-11 in their last 16 games overall. Los Angeles is 6-18 in their last 24 road games against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 6-2 in Padilla's last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 2-7 in Padilla's last 9 road starts.

Dodgers are 2-12 last 14 road games.
Under is 10-4 last 14 games against a right-handed starter.

Key Injuries - SS Rafael Furcal (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

Braves (-140, O/U 7.5): Atlanta has won 7 of their past 10 games overall, and lead the National League East division by 3 games. Atlanta can thank their fans for their support, as they are a dominant 40-15 SU at home this year. Atlanta is +10.47 and +14.46 units both SU and on the RL respectively this season. Pitcher Jair Jurrjens will make the home start this afternoon, as he is 4-4 with an ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.26 this season. The Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 home games against a right-handed starter. The Braves are 4-0 in Jurrjens' last 4 home starts against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 15-5 in Jurrjens' last 20 starts against a National League West. The Braves are 1-4 in Jurrjens' last 5 Sunday starts overall.

Braves are 5-1 last 6 games against the National League West.
Over is 7-3 last 10 Sunday games.

Key Injuries - 2B Martin Prado (finger) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side of the Day)



Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets [ESPN | 8:05 PM ET]

Phillies (-110, O/U 8.5): Philadelphia has one eye on the National League East division lead and the other on the National League Wild Card standings. Either way, the Phillies are currently on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Philadelphia has been playing well of late, including winning 7 of their last 10 games. The Phillies are 64-51 SU this season, including a road record of 28-32 SU. Philadelphia is -0.96 and -7.87 units both SU and on the RL this season. Pitcher Kyle Kendrick will make the road start tonight, as he is 7-5 with an ERA of 4.60 and a WHIP of 1.34 this year. The Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last 8 games against the National League East. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Phillies are 4-0 in Kendrick's last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Philadelphia is 4-1 in Kendrick's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. The Phillies are 1-5 in Kendrick's last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record.

Phillies are 6-0 last 6 games during game 3 of a series.
Over is 12-5 last 17 games overall.

Key Injuries - 2B Chase Utley (thumb) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Mets: New York just isn't quite ready to throw in the towel yet, as they feel they are one huge run away from contending in the National League East division. Currently, the Mets are 9 games behind the division lead, and they would need to pass Philadelphia to have any chance of making the playoffs. New York is only 58-57 SU this season, yet are an impressive 36-20 SU at home. The Mets are +0.34 and +18.73 units both SU and on the RL this season. As of Saturday evening, the Mets were undecided as to whom they were going to send to the mound tonight. The Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 home games against a right-handed starter. New York is 20-8 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Mets are 2-6 in their last 8 games during game 3 of a series. New York is 2-6 in their last 8 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Mets are 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Key Injuries - LF Jason Bay (concussion) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4


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[Udog]

MLB
Short Sheet


Sunday, 8/15/2010

FLORIDA at CINCINNATI, 1:10 PM ET
SANCHEZ: FLORIDA 11-21 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
BAILEY: CINCINNATI 27-15 when the total is 9 to 9.5

PHILADELPHIA at NY METS, 1:10 PM ET
KENDRICK: PHILADELPHIA 6-14 in road games with a well rested bullpen - threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games
PELFREY: PELFREY 9-1 after a loss

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON, 1:35 PM ET
ENRIGHT: ARIZONA 9-23 in day games
STRASBURG: WASHINGTON 19-11 in home games after 3 or more consecutive home games

LA DODGERS at ATLANTA, 1:35 PM ET
PADILLA: 24-12 TSR as an underdog of +100 or higher
JURRJENS: ATLANTA 20-10 UNDER after scoring 2 runs or less

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON, 2:05 PM ET
KARSTENS: PITTSBURGH 4-28 as a road underdog of +125 to +175
HAPP: HOUSTON 13-7 after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games

CHICAGO CUBS at ST LOUIS, 2:15 PM ET
DEMPSTER: 9-0 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10
LOHSE: ST LOUIS 26-15 OVER when playing on Sunday

MILWAUKEE at COLORADO, 3:10 PM ET
PARRA: MILWAUKEE 14-37 after a game where they committed 3 or more errors
JIMENEZ: COLORADO 12-1 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
LEBLANC: SAN DIEGO 31-17 after a loss
LINCECUM: SAN FRANCISCO 27-40 after a win by 2 runs or less

SEATTLE at CLEVELAND, 1:05 PM ET
HERNANDEZ: 1-7 TSR after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing
MASTERSON: CLEVELAND 17-11 after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span

BALTIMORE at TAMPA BAY, 1:40 PM ET
ARRIETA: BALTIMORE 10-4 in August games
HELLICKSON: TAMPA BAY 13-4 UNDER in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span

DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX, 2:05 PM ET
GALARRAGA: DETROIT 11-34 as a road underdog of +125 to +150
GARCIA: 14-6 TSR when the total is 8.5 to 10

NY YANKEES at KANSAS CITY, 2:10 PM ET
BURNETT: NY YANKEES 15-3 UNDER after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits
BULLINGTON: KANSAS CITY 6-16 in home games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs

OAKLAND at MINNESOTA, 2:10 PM ET
MAZZARO: OAKLAND 28-11 in day games
SLOWEY: MINNESOTA 6-16 with a well rested bullpen - threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games

BOSTON at TEXAS, 3:05 PM ET
MATSUZAKA: 9-2 TSR as a road underdog of +100 to +150
WILSON: TEXAS 11-18 against AL East opponents

TORONTO at LA ANGELS, 3:35 PM ET
ROMERO: TORONTO 46-71 after 2 or more consecutive road games
HAREN: LA ANGELS 29-11 in home games after 5 or more consecutive home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


As soon as Armadillo adds the pitcher stats, I'll update.

Sunday, August 15

Hot pitchers
--

--

Cold pitchers
--

--

Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Arizona road games.
-- Seven of last eleven Florida road games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Kendrick starts.
-- Seven of last nine Atlanta home games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-3 in last twelve Houston home games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten road games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten LeBlanc starts.

-- Six of last seven Seattle games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-3 in Kansas City's last fourteen games.
-- Nine of last eleven Oakland road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven games in Anaheim stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won four of their last six games.
-- Phillies won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Braves are 9-4 in last 13 home games.
-- Arizona won seven of its last ten games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games.
-- Astros won nine of their last eleven home games.
-- Rockies won six of their last eight games at Coors Field.
-- Padres won last six games, allowing eleven runs. Giants are 8-4 in their last twelve home games.

-- Mariners are 4-1 since changing managers.
-- Orioles won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers are 7-4 in their last 11 home games. Red Sox are 8-4 in their last twelve road games.
-- Twins are 16-4 in their last twenty games.
-- White Sox are 22-5 in last 27 home games.
-- Bronx is 17-7 in its last 24 road games.
-- Angels won six of their last eight games. Blue Jays are 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Mets are 9-17 in their last 26 games.
-- Reds lost six of their last ten home games.
-- Dodgers are 3-12 on road since All-Star break. .
-- Pirates lost their last nine road games.
-- Cubs lost 14 of their last 17 games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last six games.

-- Rays lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Indians lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Tigers lost eight of last eleven games.
-- Oakland is 3-8 in its last eleven road games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- Chi-StL-- Five of last six Dimuro games went over total.
-- SD-SF-- Five of last seven Cousins games went over total.
-- Az-Wsh-- Six of last seven Campos games went over total.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Over is 3-1-1 with Porter behind the plate.
-- Phil-NY-- Last three Kulpa games stayed under the total.
-- Fla-Cin-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Reyburn games.
-- LA-Atl-- Home side won last eleven Estabrook games.
-- Mil-Colo-- Underdog is 5-4 (+$378) in last nine Wegner games.

-- Blt-TB-- Under is 14-2-2 in last eighteen Gibson games.
-- Det-Chi-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Nelson games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Home team won nine of last twelve Fairchild games.
-- NY-KC-- Last three Muchlinski games went over the total.
-- A's-Minn-- Three of last four Everitt games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Tex-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Barrett games.
-- Tor-LA-- Road team is 11-2 in last 13 Hernandez games.

[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Update

Sunday, August 15

Hot pitchers
-- Sanchez is 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Padilla is 5-1, 1.81 in his last eight starts. Jurrjens is 1-0, 2.70 in his last couple starts.
-- Enright is 2-0, 2.25 in his last five starts.
-- Happ is 1-0, 0.73 in two home starts for Houston.
-- Jimenez is 2-1, 1.29 in his last three starts.

-- FHernandez is 4-4, 1.96 in his last eleven starts.
-- Hellickson is 2-0, 1.29 in his first two big league starts.
-- Texas won last five Wilson starts (3-0, 3.14). Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.06 in his last five starts.
-- Slowey is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
-- Haren has a 2.82 RA in his last three starts. Romero, who played in college at nearby Cal State-Fullerton, is 2-0, 3.57 in last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Strasburg is 1-1, 8.10 in his last couple starts.
-- Bailey comes off DL to make first start since May 23; he is 1-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- Pelfrey is 1-4, 8.03 in his last eight starts. Kendrick has 6.49 RA in his last four road starts.
-- Karstens is 0-5, 4.24 in his last six starts, but has 2.65 RA in his last three outings.
-- Parra is 0-4, 7.99 in his last six starts.
-- Cubs are 1-13 with Dempster if they score less than six runs. Lohse is 1-3, 8.35 in his last four starts; this is his first start since May 22.
-- LeBlanc is 2-4, 4.50 in his last six starts. Lincecum is 1-2, 5.40 in his last five starts.

-- Masterson is 1-3, 8.18 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 1-1, 6.91 in his last five starts.
-- Galarraga is 0-4, 5.32 in his last seven starts. FGarcia is 1-2, 8.27 in his last four starts.
-- Burnett is 0-1, 8.49 in his last couple starts.
-- Mazzaro is 0-2, 5.89 in his last three starts.
-- Bullington lost his first '10 start, allowing three runs in six IP.

[Udog]

Sunday's six-pack

Some knowledge on Jose Reyes of the Mets.........

-- A switch-hitter, Reyes' numbers are very consistent: he has .276/.314 BA/OB% as a lefty hitter, .280/.318 as a righthanded hitter.

-- Reyes has a .365 OB% at home, just .268 on the road.

-- In 135 plate appearances in day games, Reyes is hitting just .194 with a .257 OB%; at night, .311/.340.

-- Reyes has had a 2-2 count in 65 ABs this year; he is 9-65 in those ABs (.138), with not a single walk.

-- Once he gets two strikes on him, Reyes has an OB% of just .215.

-- First pitch seems way too critical in his ABs. Here is a breakdown of his on-base percentage by what happens on the first pitch.......
Puts it in play-- .378 OB%. 1-0 count: .368. 0-1 count: .259.


Saturday's six-pack

Real names for six TV/movie stars........

-- Michael Keaton-- Michael John Douglas.

-- Elizabeth Banks-- Elizabeth Maresal Mitchell

-- Diane Keaton-- Diane Hall

-- Albert Brooks-- Albert Einstein (seriously, it is)

-- Michael J Fox-- Michael Andrew Fox

-- Gary Sinise-- George Alan Sinise


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Sunday's List of 13: Odds/ends for a summer Sunday.......

13) Tennessee Titans ran a successful fake punt early in second quarter in Seattle with a 7-3 lead. Unusual for the first preseason game. Seahawks' new backup QB Charlie Whitehurst looked good in his Seattle debut.

12) If you look at the first two games of the last three regular seasons, the Cowboys have averaged 36 ppg in those six games.

11) Tony Romo is 9-13 vs spread in divisional games, 22-15 in Cowboys' non-divisional games.

10) Tom Brady is making $6.5M this year, an uncapped year. Its hard to believe the Patriots haven't taken care of this guy, who has given back in the past, even though the Patriots haven't always used that money to get themselves better players. It just doesn't make sense.

9) Donovan McNabb is 24-13 against spread as a road underdog.

8) Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in Chad Henne's road starts for Miami.

7) Baltimore is 13-5 vs spread as a favorite with Joe Flacco starting.

6) Jay Cutler is 4-15-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

5) If you're a Ram/Viking fan, replay of Sam Bradford's first NFL game is on NFL Network Sunday night at 1am, Wednesday afternoon at 4.

4) For first four months of season, Orioles hit .217 when they had guys in scoring position; from August 3-13, they hit .382, making Buck Showalter look like a combination of Miller Huggins/Joe McCarthy. .

3) It bothers me that the Giants have a great new stadium, but won't let the A's get one. Lew Wolff wants to move his team to San Jose, which is 36.32 miles farther away from San Francisco than Oakland is, according to Mapquest. So the A's want to move 36 miles farther away, but they can't because the Giants own territorial rights to San Jose. Fantastic.

2) Dr Jerry Buss is in the Basketball Hall of Fame, but Jerry Tarkanian isn't; someone in Springfield should be very embarrassed by that.

1) The great Steve Martin, the funniest man alive, turned 65 Saturday.


Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts for a summer Saturday

13) Phillies are 0-4 at Citi Field this season; haven't scored a run yet.

12) Mets haven't hit a grand slam this year, have allowed nine; in their last four wins, they haven't allowed a run.

11) You know the Angels are in serious trouble when Maicer Izturis is the guy batting third. Not a bad player, but hardly an ideal #3 hitter.

10) TBS/TNT announcer Ernie Johnson seems like a great guy, the kind of guy you'd like as a buddy.

9) NFL Network replays every preseason game, which is great, if your cable system carries this fine channel. Mine doesn't :-(

WOULD IT KILL THE NFL AND TIME WARNER TO COME TO AN AGREEMENT ON THIS?!?!?!?!? Oh sorry, didn't mean to shout.

8) Francisco Rodriguez' 2-game suspension from the Mets will cost him a cool $125,683, or what I make..........in roughly 2.5 years.

7) Side issue here is that Rodriguez' contract calls for him to make $17M in 2012, if he finishes a combined 110 games in 2010-11. He's finished 45 games so far this year. He ain't worth $17M, so you know Mets wouldn't mind getting out from under his contract. Could they void his contract if he gets convicted on the assault charge?

6) Basketball recruits surveyed by ESPN.com said that handwritten notes from recruiters carry a little more weight that generic, form-type letters.

5) Braves owe Chipper Jones $28M over next two years; now that he's blown out his knee, he can't retire, can he? All he'd have to do to get paid millions is to stay at home and rehab the leg. Hard work, but he's going to have to do it anyway, no?

4) Josh Hamilton has 46 RBI in 57 home games this season.

3) Wandy Rodriguez is pitching pretty well for Houston this year, but in his last two starts, Astro bullpen allowed ten runs in 5.2 IP, blowing both wins for Rodriguez. Houston will be a tough out for contenders as season comes down the stretch.

2) Carolina Panthers have almost no experience at QB. Moore/Clausen are kids who both played big-time college ball, but this is new to them. Just for the record, when Moore left UCLA, he played a year at College of the Canyons, before moving on to Oregon State. Not lot of NFL QBs played at College of the Canyons.

1) There have been forty 1-0 games in big leagues this season, the winning pitcher finished only eight of the 40 games