Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 08:06 AM

Saturday Preseason Tips

The first full NFL preseason card provides bettors with seven games to wager on as plenty of back-ups will see substantial playing time in the openers. We'll detail the key contests as a plethora of young quarterbacks look to make their mark on Saturday. Let's start in the Sunshine State with a battle of two squads trying to get over the hump this season.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (-3 ½, 33 ½) - 7:00 PM EST

Miami made one of the biggest splashes in the offseason with its acquisition of Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall from Denver to bolster the receiving corps. The Dolphins finished last season with a 7-9 mark, as they look to get back to the postseason after claiming the AFC East crown in 2008. The Bucs, meanwhile, scored the third-fewest points in the NFL last season en route to a 3-13 record.

Tampa Bay played better down the stretch, winning two of the final three games, while owning a 5-4 ATS ledger the last nine contests. The merry-go-round of quarterbacks eventually stopped on 2009 first-round pick Josh Freeman, who started each of the last nine games. The former Kansas State QB may not play past the first series, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The Bucs cashed the 'under' in seven straight games to wrap up the 2009 season, as the Tampa Bay offense scored 10 points or less four times in that span.

These clubs are no strangers to one another in the preseason, meeting each August since 2000. The 'under' has hit in eight of the previous 10 preseason matchups, including a 10-6 victory by the Dolphins at Raymond James Stadium last season. Tony Sparano has been a friend to preseason backers of the Dolphins, owning a 6-1-1 ATS mark, while cashing the 'under' in seven of eight opportunities.

Lions at Steelers (-3, 33 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

Detroit and Pittsburgh both have different quarterback questions heading into the season, as the two teams meet in the preseason for the first time since 2004. Last year's top pick Matthew Stafford enters his second season as the signal-caller for the Lions, while Ben Roethlisberger will miss the first six games of the regular season after getting suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy.

Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin has yet to indicate how much Big Ben will play in Saturday's opener, but Tomlin expects starters to take between eight and 12 snaps. On the flip side, the second overall pick from April's draft, Ndamukong Suh will make his Detroit debut on the defensive line. No word on long Stafford will play, but rookie RB Jahvid Best will start in place of the injured Kevin Smith.

Pittsburgh owns a 7-6 ATS preseason record under Tomlin, while cashing in three of four preseason games in 2009. The Lions have won only two regular season games the last two seasons, but Detroit is a solid 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the preseason since 2008.

Browns at Packers (-2 ½, 34) - 8:00 PM EST

Green Bay looks to make that next step this season after getting eliminated in overtime at Arizona of last season's first round of the playoffs. Cleveland, meanwhile, attempts to rebuild after a 5-11 campaign, starting with Mike Holmgren taking over team president. The Browns finished last season with four straight wins, but there are plenty of new faces competing for the open quarterback job with both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn out of town.

Cleveland signed Jake Delhomme from Carolina, while acquiring Seneca Wallace from Seattle and drafting former University of Texas star Colt McCoy. The Browns were actually one of the best ATS teams in the league last season, covering the final seven games, while going 10-6 ATS overall. Cleveland looks to bounce back after losing twice to Green Bay last season, including a 17-0 setback at Lambeau Field last August as three-point underdogs.

The Green Bay starters are expected to play about 20 snaps, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers rushed for 230 yards against the Browns in last season's preseason opener, while Rodgers connected with Donald Driver on a 53-yard touchdown strike. Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are just 8-8 ATS in the preseason, but are 12-4 to the 'over' since his arrival in 2006.

Vikings at Rams (-2, 31 ½) - 8:00 PM EST

The Brett Favre saga continues in Minnesota if he will return this season or ultimately retire. Despite this drama, the game must be played as the defending NFC North champs head south to St. Louis to battle a Rams' club who finished a dreadful 1-15 last season.

The Vikings can seemingly plug Favre back into the fray on September 9 when Minnesota visits New Orleans for the season opener. The Rams don't have that luxury, as April's top draft pick, Sam Bradford prepares for his NFL debut. The former Heisman Trophy winner will not start, as A.J. Feely will start for St. Louis, with Bradford finishing up the first half.

Minnesota owns a profitable 10-6 ATS in the preseason in Brad Childress' four seasons, while hitting the 'under' in three of four preseason openers. Despite St. Louis' struggles in the regular season the last two years (3-29), the Rams own a 5-3 SU/ATS preseason ledger.

Texans (-1 ½, 33) at Cardinals - 8:00 PM EST

Life after Kurt Warner begins for Arizona, as it looks to make the playoffs for the third straight season. The man who was supposed to be the future for the Cardinals when he was drafted in 2006 gets his opportunity now with Matt Leinart assuming the controls of the Arizona offense. Houston is coming off its first winning season in its eight-year franchise history, but the Texans have yet to make the postseason.

Leinart is likely to start Saturday's game, with Derek Anderson seeing plenty of time in the first half. There is no word how long Matt Schaub will play for the Texans, while ex-Lion Dan Orlovsky is expected to get extended snaps for Houston. The Texans are 9-5-2 ATS under Gary Kubiak in the preseason, but just 1-3-2 ATS as a favorite.

Arizona has not been a smart play in the preseason with Ken Whisenhunt on the sidelines, as the Cardinals own a 3-9 ATS mark since 2007. The Cards scored 10 points or less in three of four preseason contests last season, while Arizona is 0-6 SU at home in the preseason under Whisenhunt.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 08:08 AM

Sportbook News & Notes

Have you ever had a feeling that a particular NFL team was going to do better than expected and wished you could have made bets for the entire season based on the original early season power ratings? Well at one Las Vegas Sportsbook, you can. The M Resort and Spa has opened up the entire regular season of games and will keep them up even as the season goes, adjusting them every Tuesday as the results from the previous week relate.

M Sport Book Director Mike Colbert has seen good action from all types of clientele.

“We’ve seen some sharp players take a crack a few teams -- picking on several teams they don’t think will do well like many of the Steelers, Broncos and Rams games. Then we’ll see just regular guys who are visiting and won’t be back in Vegas and they bet all 16 games at once. We had a couple guys do that with the Falcons and Bengals.”

Colbert has offered all the games open for wagering the last four seasons with the M and his previous job at the Plaza and it’s really caught on with players who feel they can see the crystal ball early and feel they have an advantage. It gives players a good hedge opportunity as well, but conversely, it can also put the player in a bad spot if the line goes the other way.

The best thing about the early lines may be that we see actual handicapping, especially for the early four weeks of the season, as opposed to the normal weekly trend of followers who just flow with the line movements across the world. Right now, there is no other line for anyone to base their opinion on. The players actually have to think and forecast unlike at any other time.

Really, Really High-End Contest

The M Resort is going to new heights in Las Vegas with the unveiling of the “Cantor High Stakes” football contest. Entry fee is $100,000 with a goal of getting at least 20 entrants which would make the prize money a cool $2 million.

“We wanted to do something different this year as opposed to what all the other places are doing around town,” said M Sports Book Director Mike Colbert, “We’ve already got six entries with commitments from others. With that type of entry fee, I think this appeals to several levels players ranging from pro athletes, celebrities, professional poker players, high stakes casino gamblers and of course high end sports bettors.“

The entrants will have to make five selections a week versus the listed spread. By attracting the kind of personalities that will be able to afford that type of fee, this contest should be a weekly reality TV show on VH-1 or Versus. It’s got everything that a reality show needs; celebrities, people with lots of money -- which always creates some kind of drama, and a big prize at the end of the rainbow. Sounds like a ratings winner to me.

Sports Book Waiting on Favre

Since most of the Las Vegas Sportsbooks have Week 1 NFL lines up, they have already been put into a tough dilemma as we all wait for the Brett Favre soap opera to end. Many books opened the Saints at home as four-points favorite against the Vikings, but since the latest saga, they have either taken the game off the board or moved the game to -6 or 6 ½, adjusting as news from the drama leaks out through the press.

Favre is one of the few players in the NFL who is worth at least three points to his team. Should it be announced officially that Favre will not play, expect the line to shoot past the all important barrier of 7 and go right to 7 ½ points. So if willing to bet on Favre’s drama -- believing he won’t play, laying the Saints right now is the value play.

Preseason Teasers

Not a lot of Las Vegas Sportsbooks take NFL preseason teasers because of the uncertainty of who is playing and for how long. All the sides rarely go over a three-point favorite and none of the totals are over 36, so there is a perception that there could be lots of value for the players with teasers in the preseason. But because of all those uncertainties, it’s just as tough to gauge for the player as it is for the bookmaker, at least until all the good information comes in regarding playing time.

If we look back at the first full week of preseason last year, you’ll see that there was no advantage in playing the teasers, especially with totals. All 16 games were decided ‘over’ or ‘under’ the listed total and needed no help from a teaser meaning that there were no two-way wins on any game total. By just laying 11 to 10 odds on a straight bet worrying about one game, you fared much better than laying the juiced up teasers for two games. Overall, totals went 10-6 in favor of the ‘under.’ Out of the 16 games, five of the games were two-way wins on the sides if using 6 ½-point teasers.

In the NFL regular season -- if the price is right -- the sharp players from all over love playing two- team teasers because they know that the regular season line is the most proper of any major sport and getting an additional six points is huge value. The preseason is a crap shoot with rag lines and half the teams using the games as a means to learn more about unknown players with little emphasis on winning.

The only advice I could offer on teasers is to go with the biggest moves by game day -- some of which can move up to six points -- and tease the game the same way the major line moves go. The moves are all based on playing time information and a coach revealing their game plans to the press. The large moves happen because the limits are so small, just because of those types of things related to key information. There is no line that a book will stay on because of those factors which is why you shouldn’t see any book use money (-3 -120) attached to key numbers like most do in the regular season. Books that do use money attached to key numbers in the preseason are likely just brushing up on their football booking skills to prepare for the regular season, because it's not done based on past pre-season trends, even with so many games hovering around 3 points.

M Resorts In-Game Wagering

This football season will have a new wrinkle with their In-Game wagering as they add player yardage props as the game goes. Bettors will be able to now bet the game side and totals as well as use their fantasy football knowledge to bet against the house. They’ll have the yardage props available through three quarters of action. During each week of the season they’ll offer the two best games at 10:00 am and 1:00 pm PDT along with the Sunday and Monday night games. The same In-Game wagering system is available at the Venetian and Palazzo as well.

**Spark** · 08-14-2010, 08:09 AM

Good luck Bum ...

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 08:28 AM

Johnson, Titans return to record-breaking scene

SEATTLE (AP) -The last time Chris Johnson was in a game in Seattle, he ran his way into the record books.

The last time Pete Carroll was in a game in Seattle, he had a humbling defeat - one that accelerated the end of his dynasty at Southern California.

Johnson returns with the Titans on Saturday night in the preseason opener against Carroll's Seahawks at Qwest Field, site of Tennessee's last game on Jan. 3. Johnson that day became the sixth player in NFL history to reach 2,000 yards rushing. He also broke Marshall Faulk's 1999 record of 2,429 yards from scrimmage.

Johnson turned his romp through Seattle into a pay raise. The All-Pro stayed away from Tennessee's offseason workouts before the Titans made him happy by reshuffling some money due to him in 2012 to add to his $550,000 salary this season.

``It's going to be interesting to see how they come out there ready to play,'' he said, ``being that I rushed for the yards on them, or whatever.''

Johnson will be in for 10 plays at most, if Titans coach Jeff Fisher sticks to his long history of preseason openers. That means more time for backups Javon Ringer, former Oregon runner LeGarrette Blount and Stafon Johnson.

And Seattle has far more going on this summer than vengeance against Johnson.

Carroll is coaching in Seattle for the first time since his Trojans were upset by Washington in last September's Pac-10 opener at Husky Stadium. The Huskies' first win over USC since 2001 contributed to a four-loss season for USC that helped make a return to the NFL irresistible to Carroll.

Saturday's tuneup is his first pro game since Jan. 2, 2000, when he was leading New England. The second meeting ever in the preseason between the Seahawks and the Oilers-Titans franchise is also Seattle's first glimpse of Carroll's impact on a team that was 9-23 the last two seasons.

``I can't wait,'' he said.

Neither can the Seahawks' roster. Half of it is new since that '09 season finale against Tennessee.

Since arriving in January, Carroll has been acquiring players and then cutting them soon after. That's what happened to LenDale White. Carroll traded with the Titans during April's draft to get the guy who lost his job last year to Johnson. Carroll then dumped his former record-setting rusher at USC a month later because he wasn't happy with his attitude. White recently signed with Denver.

``It'd really be more interesting,'' Johnson said of his return to Seattle, ``(if) I thought LenDale was going to be there.''

Carroll is likely to take some other intrigue away by continuing to rest most of his starters.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has spent much of camp watching backups Charlie Whitehurst and J.P. Losman run Seattle's offense.

``It almost reminds me back of my first three years where I wasn't getting a lot of snaps and I was just sort of watching practice,'' said the 34-year-old Hasselbeck, who spent 1998-2000 backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay. ``You almost get spoiled getting all the reps, and it's not much fun to go back to that.

``But ... it's part of how we're doing things. It's probably the smarter way to go.''

Hasselbeck has been injured for most of Seattle's last two dismal seasons. Preserving him has been one of Carroll's main summer goals.

``One of the reasons that you can limit Matt's snaps is because he's so gifted at the game,'' Carroll said. ``He just understands it. He gets it.''

Whitehurst is back in his comfort zone: preseason football. The fifth-year veteran and former third-stringer with the Chargers has yet to throw a pass in a regular-season game. He's likely to throw many of them against the Titans.

Seattle traded for him and gave him an $8 million contract to have him take over for Hasselbeck after the three-time Pro Bowl passer's contract ends this season. But Whitehurst is getting pushed by Losman for the No. 2 job.

He and Losman will be throwing a lot to Mike Williams and Golden Tate. Williams, a former top-10 pick of the Lions and a former star for Carroll at USC, is playing his first game since dropping out of the league for two years after the Titans released him in 2007.

Tate has been the most dynamic of Seattle's receivers. The rookie second-round draft choice was born and raised in Hendersonville, Tenn. He starred at Pope John Paul II High School, then Notre Dame.

Carroll calls Tate ``probably the most exciting guy coming along ... We're going to play him a lot on Saturday night and give him a lot of opportunities.''

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 08:31 AM

Fox Saturday Baseball

know that most everyone out there is in a tizzy to bet on preseason NFL contests, but there is plenty of good times to be had in baseball. Fox is sporting a troika of action on the diamond this Saturday. San Francisco plays host to the Padres in a huge National League West showdown. The Cubbies hit the bricks to face the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Plus, the Rays play host to a suddenly spry Baltimore side.

Orioles (40-75, -1,752) at Rays (69-45, +472) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox

You need just about anything to keep your spirits up when you’re a fan of the Orioles. So when you get Buck Showalter to come out of the cozy confines of Bristol to run your Bad New Bears, fans tend to get excited. The infusion of new management has done Baltimore some good as they’ve gone 8-2 in his first 10 games. Before we crown Showalter as the second coming, we need to realize these series wins came against teams in pretty lousy funks (Angels, White Sox and Indians).

Brian Matusz (4-11, 5.08) will be entrusted to keep the good times going for the O’s on Saturday afternoon. Not a bad option to have considering that he’s allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts, lasting six innings on both occasions. Even better news for Baltimore is that they are have come away triumphant in Matusz’s last three starts outside of Camden Yards.

Tampa Bay doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing out on October baseball at the moment. But you have to acknowledge that they’re in a slump at a lousy time. Losing two hard-luck games at home to the Twins and getting embarrassed in Toronto right after that. They did pick up a pair of wins at Detroit, but the Rays still find themselves two games behind the Yanks for the top spot in the American League East.

The Rays have had a few bumps and bruises on the starting rotation at the moment. That’s given Andy Sonnanstine (2-1, 3.98) a chance to show he can still be a serviceable starter. Sonnanstine pitched well enough to win his last opening appearance last Sunday at Rogers Center, giving up just one earned run in 5.1 innings of work. Too bad that Tampa Bay nearly got no-hit (this team loves getting smacked down in Sports Center highlights) in that 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays. The Rays’ hurler has gone 2-4 with a bulbous 6.80 earned run average in his 11 career appearances against Baltimore.

Tampa Bay has enjoyed moderate success against AL East opponents as a home “chalk,” going 10-7 this year, winning five of the last seven in this spot. When you’re looking for the Rays as favorites at Tropicana Field in day games against lefties, you’ll see they are 4-0 with the ‘under’ hitting each time. Baltimore, on the other hand, is 2-4 in six spots as a road pup against AL East foes in the afternoon the season. The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 in those games.

Padres (67-46, +2,496) at Giants (66-50, +1,035) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox

Nobody gave San Diego a thought about being a force in the NL West this season, but here they are. And the Padres have shown they won’t be going away anytime soon. The Pads have won four straight games at the time of this writing. Too bad they didn’t give much money line value in those games (posted at $2.00 faves in three of those tilts). But they did cover the run line in each matchups.

The Pads must like their chances to capture Game 2 of this series with Mat Latos (12-5, 2.36) taking to the mound. All San Diego has done is win 9 of his last 10 starts this year. Latos is coming off of a six-inning, two-hit performance at Arizona last Sunday that led to a 10-1 win. Adding a little more confidence to the Padres for this game is that Latos is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts against San Fran.

San Francisco has to like its chances to keep in the NL West race and put some distance between itself and the Phils for the Wild Card. The Giants have won three of their last four tests at home against the Cubbies. Gamblers have been a little surprised by San Fran at the moment as the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five fixtures.

Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 3.36) is getting the ball for this contest for the Giants. He gave up three earned runs in 5.2 innings of work to Chicago in a 4-3 win on Monday. Not the best outing he’s had, but not the worst. Bumgarner had lost his last two starts before taking on the Cubs. San Francisco hasn't fared well with the young southpaw at home, losing two of his three starts.

San Diego can feel good about this game as the road teams have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has gone 6-1-1 in the eight matches between these divisional foes. The Pads are 5-1 in road day games against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, San Francisco has lost five of its last six home day games against the NL West this year. Bettors taking the ‘under’ were paid off handsomely as it cashed tickets in all two of those games.

Cubs (48-67, -3,040) at Cardinals (64-49, -230) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox

The Cubs are continuing to close out Lou Piniella’s career with a whimper, having lost eight of their last 10 games this season. And they’ve been just as bad on the road with a 2-8 mark away from Wrigley Field recently.

Carlos Zambrano (3-6, 5.46) is back from him bullpen exile to rule the starting role he once held. Zambrano didn’t fare too bad in his last start, going five innings and giving up two earned runs in a 4-3 loss at San Francisco last Monday. He has enjoyed a fair amount of success against the Cardinals for his career with a 10-6 mark and 3.50 ERA. However, the Cubs are just 4-8 in Zambrano’s road starts this year.

St. Louis is still in a dogfight with the Reds for the top spot in the NL Central, but that’s better than being a basement dweller. Chris Carpenter (13-3, 2.89) is Tony LaRussa’s drink of choice on Saturday. Not a bad option considering he’s lasted into at least the seventh inning in his last six starts. And Carpenter is a solid 9-2 with an ERA of 2.75 in 14 starts at home.

While the odds are stacked in the Cardinals’ favor, gamblers should know that Chicago is 4-1 in its last five games as a road pup against NL Central foes. St. Louis has won five of its last seven as home favorites against divisional foes. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in those spots. Plus, the Cards are 11-7 as home faves in day games with the ‘under’ going 11-6-1.

**jt4545** · 08-14-2010, 11:28 AM

Thanks and good luck star

**Kaptain** · 08-14-2010, 12:02 PM

thanks...give em HELL Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 02:46 PM

Thanks Kapt & JT.....good luck guys........slap the man today.......

**bryce** · 08-14-2010, 02:51 PM

Good luck SDB!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 02:55 PM

HEY HOWZIT GOING BRYCE...good luck today.

Evening Games:

Detroit - 7:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox -148 500
Chi. White Sox - Under 9.5 500

Seattle - 7:05 PM ET Seattle +104 500
Cleveland - Over 8.5 500 *****

Arizona - 7:05 PM ET Arizona -104 500
Washington - Over 9 500 *****

Pittsburgh - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +124 500 *****
Houston - Over 8 500

NY Yankees - 7:10 PM ET Kansas City +215 500 *****
Kansas City - Under 9.5 500

Oakland - 7:10 PM ET Minnesota -131 500
Minnesota - Over 8 500 *****

LA Dodgers - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -130 500
Atlanta - Over 7.5 500

Florida - 7:10 PM ET Florida +145 500 *****
Cincinnati - Over 9.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets +203 500 *****
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Boston - 8:05 PM ET Texas -103 500
Texas - Over 9 500 *****

Milwaukee - 8:10 PM ET Colorado -138 500 *****
Colorado - Over 10.5 500 *****

Toronto - 9:05 PM ET Toronto +120 500 *****
LA Angels - Over 8 500

**Sirporkie** · 08-14-2010, 03:25 PM

**StarDust Bum** · 08-14-2010, 06:20 PM

Saturday, August 14Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Miami -3.5 500 *****
Miami - Over 33.5 500

Detroit - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500 *****
Pittsburgh - Under 33.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -3 500
Green Bay - Over 34 500 *****

Houston - 8:00 PM ET Houston -1.5 500
Arizona - Over 33 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -2.5 500 *****
St. Louis - Under 31.5 500 *****

Chicago - 9:00 PM ET San Diego -2.5 500 *****
San Diego - Over 33.5 500

Tennessee - 10:00 PM ET Seattle -3.5 500 *****
Seattle - Over 34.5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NFL-CFL-WNBA !

The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets MLB-NFL-CFL-WNBA !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment