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**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 10:49 PM

Wednesday Tips

The Wednesday night baseball card showcases several key matchups in both leagues, including a pair of big showdowns inside the American League. The Yankees continue their series in the Lone Star State against the Rangers, while the Twins and White Sox battle for AL Central supremacy. We'll start in the Senior Circuit with a rematch of last season's NLCS in the City of Brotherly Love.

Dodgers at Phillies - 7:05 PM EST

Two teams on the outside looking in inside the NL Wild Card race meet for only the second time since Philadelphia eliminated Los Angeles last October to win the pennant. Both clubs have work to do if they want to make it back to the postseason, but the Phillies sit only one game out of the Wild Card spot, while the Dodgers are 5 ½ games behind.

Roy Oswalt (6-13, 3.50 ERA) still searches for his victory in a Phillies' uniform, as the righty received a no-decision in a 5-4 win at Florida last Thursday. Oswalt does make his first home start for the Phillies after allowing six earned runs in two outings against the Nationals and Marlins. The veteran had received horrible run support over the last month, but was bailed out against Florida thanks to a pair of late runs to force extra innings. Oswalt hasn't lost to the Dodgers since 2005, as he beat Los Angeles twice last season as a member of the Astros.

The Dodgers send out Chad Billingsley (9-6, 3.82 ERA), who looks to deliver his fifth straight quality start. Billingsley had his 25-inning scoreless streak snapped in L.A.'s 5-0 loss to San Diego last Thursday, but the Dodgers have cashed the 'under' in the righty's last four starts. The Dodgers have not provided Billingsley with good run support, scoring five runs his previous four outings, splitting with both the Giants and Padres. Billingsley has pitched much better on the road, owning an away ERA of 2.95, while the Dodgers are 7-4 in his 11 starts on the highway.

The Phillies have owned this series at Citizens Bank Park recently, going 9-2 since August 2008. The Dodgers have had plenty of struggles on the road, owning a 1-10 mark away from Chavez Ravine since the All-Star Break.

Yankees at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

A potential playoff matchup takes place in Arlington as Cliff Lee looks to shut down the powerful Yankees' lineup. The Rangers are in cruise control atop the AL West, while the Yankees are still in a tight race inside the AL East with the Rays. Texas is creeping closer to its first postseason appearance since 1999, when the Rangers were eliminated coincidentally by the Bombers.

Despite a 3-3 team record since coming over from Seattle in early July, Lee (10-5, 2.44 ERA) has tossed at least eight innings in all six starts, including four complete games for the Rangers. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in this span, while the Rangers have won each of Lee's home starts against the A's and Angels. The former Cy Young Award winner has seen the Yankees in plenty of uniforms, as this will be his third straight start against New York with a different team since last October. Lee shut down the Bombers on June 29 as a $1.50 road underdog, compiling a complete-game, eight-hitter in a 7-4 victory. Lee's teams (Indians, Phillies, and Mariners) are 5-1 against New York since 2008, with four of those starts coming in the Bronx.

Javier Vazquez (9-8, 4.63 ERA) hasn't been very sharp lately, putting together just one quality start in his last four outings. Vazquez has allowed 14 earned runs in his previous four starts, with his lone win coming at Cleveland (he received no-decisions in victories over Rays and Angels). The Yankees are 4-1 in Vazquez's last five road starts, but only one of those outings came against a team in playoff contention at Tampa Bay. Vazquez hasn't faced the Rangers since 2008, while not taking the mound in Arlington since 2006, suffering an 8-0 loss.

Texas has performed its best in Game 2 of a series, compiling a 23-13 record, including a 12-4 mark the last 16 at home. The Yankees have cashed the 'under' in eight of their previous 11 games on the highway, while finishing 'over' the total in five of seven games this season as a road underdog.

Twins at White Sox - 8:10 PM EST

The top two clubs in the AL Central continue their pivotal series on the South Side of Chicago as the second-place team will likely miss the postseason. Minnesota grabbed three of four at Target Field right after the All-Star Break to sneak back into the race, while Chicago tries to rebound from a series loss at lowly Baltimore.

John Danks (11-8, 3.30 ERA) looks for a win for the first time in three starts after failing to pick up victories as heavy favorites against the Orioles and A's. Despite a solid ERA of 2.87 at U.S. Cellular Field, Danks has been nearly a 50/50 betting proposition at home this season, as the Sox are 6-6 in his 12 home starts. Laying a big number with Danks at home is a red flag, as Chicago is 1-5 as a favorite of least $1.35 this season. Making matters worse for the southpaw is Chicago's 1-6 mark against Minnesota in his seven starts in this series since last July.

The Twins send out left-hander Glen Perkins (6-7, 5.89 ERA in '09), who makes his first start this season, taking the place of Kevin Slowey, who had his start pushed back. After beginning the season with some struggles at Triple-A Rochester, Perkins has put together five quality starts in his last seven outings in the minors. Minnesota is 2-2 in Perkins' four career outings against Chicago, with only one start coming at U.S. Cellular Field, a 7-5 loss in 2008.

The season series has been controlled by the Twins, owning a 6-3 mark in 2010. Minnesota is 5-1 the last six meetings on the South Side, while winning 15 of the previous 19 matchups with Chicago.

**jt4545** · 08-11-2010, 09:38 AM

Good luck bum

**tech fan** · 08-11-2010, 09:46 AM

gl buddy

**bryce** · 08-11-2010, 12:41 PM

Good luck buddy!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 05:57 PM

Evening Games:

Baltimore - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +133 500 *****
Cleveland - Over 9 500

Florida - 7:05 PM ET Washington -110 500
Washington - Over 9 500 *****

LA Dodgers - 7:05 PM ET LA Dodgers +124 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7.5 500*****

Boston - 7:07 PM ET Boston -102 500
Toronto - Over 8 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET NY Mets -115 500
NY Mets - Over 7.5 500 *****

NY Yankees - 8:05 PM ET NY Yankees +151 500 *****
Texas - Over 8 500 *****

Minnesota - 8:10 PM ET Chi. White Sox -168 500
Chi. White Sox - Over 9 500 *****

Arizona - 8:10 PM ET Arizona +116 500 *****
Milwaukee - Over 9 500

Pittsburgh - 10:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +181 500 *****
San Diego - Under 7 500

Chi. Cubs - 10:15 PM ET San Francisco -163 500
San Francisco - Under 7.5 500 *****

---------------------------------------------------------

**shoeman530** · 08-11-2010, 06:00 PM

gl sdb

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 06:17 PM

Buchholz faces challenging road test against Jays

Boston (65-49) at Toronto (59-53), 7:07 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: EVEN Toronto -105, Boston -105 Total: 8
Two pitchers who have spent time on the disabled list this season are meeting tonight. Neither is showing any effects of injury. Clay Buchholz (12-5, 2.74 ERA) is having a terrific season and has helped keep an injury-riddled Boston team in the race. On the road, he’s 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA and seven quality starts in 10 starts.
Toronto’s Shaun Marcum (10-5, 3.44 ERA) had won three straight before losing to the Yankees last week. The two starters faced each other in April, and both pitched well. The Sox won 2-1 as Buchholz (8 IP, 1 ER, 4 K) got the win and Marcum (7 IP, 1 ER, 5 K) took a no-decision

FoxSheets says Play Against - Road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BOSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (78-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (60.5%, +32.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 06:18 PM

Phils look to bounce back behind Oswalt

Los Angeles Dodgers (59-54) at Philadelphia (62-50), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Philadelphia -132, Los Angeles +122 Total: 7.5
Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley (9-6, 3.82 ERA) is having a solid season. While he was a loser his last time out (3 ER in 6 IP against San Diego), in his three previous starts he didn’t allow a run in 21 2/3 innings.
His mound opponent, Roy Oswalt (6-13, 3.50 ERA), was supposed to do for the Phillies what Cliff Lee did for them last season. But since being acquired from Houston, Oswalt is winless in two starts (4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). The second one wasn’t his fault as he left with a lead, but the bullpen gave it up. Look for Oswalt to pitch strong as the Phillies rebound from last night’s 15-9 battering by Los Angeles.

FoxSheets says Oswalt is 25-6 (+18.6 units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season (Team’s Record). The average score was OSWALT 5.5, OPPONENT 3.8 – (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 06:19 PM

Yanks look to avoid two-game sweep in Texas

New York Yankees (69-43) at Texas (65-47), 8:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Texas -158, New York +148 Total: 8
The Yankees are looking to avoid being swept in Texas in this two-game series after suffering an extra-inning loss last night. Javier Vazquez (9-8, 4.63 ERA) had won all three decisions in July before losing in his first August outing (5.1 IP, 3 ER) to Boston. Only half his 20 starts this season have been quality starts.
FoxSheets says Vazquez is 26-55 (-29.5 units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season (Team’s Record). The average score was VAZQUEZ 3.7, OPPONENT 5.3 – (Rating = 1*).

It's also hard to pick against Texas because its starter is Cliff Lee, who is 10-5 and his 2.44 ERA leads the American League. In his last 10 starts, he’s gone at least eight innings with seven complete games. In his last 14 starts, only twice has he allowed more than three earned runs.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 06:21 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Royals at Angels – The Royals are 0-10 since August 03, 2009 when Zack Greinke starts as a dog for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Angels are 7-0 since April 26, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $725.

Braves at Astros – The Braves are 0-9 since April 28, 2010 on the road when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $955 when playing against. The Astros are 0-9 since August 14, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Astros are 7-0 since September 04, 2009 at home after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $775.

Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Red Sox are 6-0 since September 03, 2009 when Clay Buchholz starts on the road when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $655.

Diamondbacks at Brewers – The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since April 30, 2009 as a road dog after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Brewers are 0-11 since May 24, 2009 when David Bush starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1170 when playing against.

Cubs at Giants – The Cubs are 0-9 since May 04, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1090 when playing against. The Giants are 11-0 since July 06, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $1100.

Orioles at Indians – The Indians are 3-0 since June 27, 2010 vs a team that has won at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $520.

Athletics at Mariners – The Athletics are 9-0 since June 22, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks for a net profit of $900. The Athletics are 0-8 since May 16, 2009 when Dallas Braden starts on the road after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $810 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a home dog after scoring 3 runs or less and winning for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Rockies at Mets – The Mets are 5-0 since August 05, 2009 when Jonathon Niese starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $580.

Marlins at Nationals – The Marlins are 0-7 since May 10, 2009 when Christopher Volstad starts as a dog after the team won their last two games for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Pirates at Padres – The Pirates are 0-15 since May 21, 2010 as a 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1500 when playing against. The Padres are 5-0 since August 12, 2009 when Kevin Correia starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Dodgers at Phillies – The Phillies are 0-6 since June 02, 2010 after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $740 when playing against.

Yankees at Rangers – The Yankees are 10-0 since September 19, 2009 on the road when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1040. The Yankees are 7-0 since June 27, 2010 after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $700.

Cardinals at Reds – The Cardinals are 0-8 since September 23, 2009 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $910 when playing against. The Cardinals are 6-0 since June 04, 2010 when Adam Wainwright starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start for a net profit of $600. The Reds are 7-0 since September 30, 2009 when Bronson Arroyo starts within 20 cents of pickem after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $735.

Rays at Tigers – The Rays are 7-0 since June 21, 2009 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $760. The Tigers are 7-0 since April 28, 2010 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $720. The Tigers are 7-0 since April 22, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts within 20 cents of pickem after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $755.

Twins at White Sox – The Twins are 9-0 since June 09, 2010 after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $970.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-11-2010, 06:22 PM

Sinking NL Contenders

With less than two months left in the MLB season, there is still time for major changes to take place in the standings. The number of serious contenders should shrink in August and here are two teams in the National League that could fall out of the playoff picture in the coming weeks. Take advantage by going against these teams in many upcoming situations.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have started the week with a three-game win streak to show a bit of life despite a tough start to the second half of the season. Some may expect a run from Los Angeles with a couple of recent additions, but the road ahead looks challenging for a team that has lacked consistency. Los Angeles is just 10-15 since the break and although many feel that the Padres and Giants are vulnerable on top of the NL West, the upcoming schedule should bury the Dodgers deeper.

Los Angeles is on the East Coast in Philadelphia this week and so far this season, Los Angeles is 2-8 in games on the East Coast. The Dodgers are actually 8-22 in the 30 games played in the Central or Eastern Time zones. This week, the Dodgers play on the road against NL East playoff contenders Philadelphia and Atlanta before returning home for a difficult home stretch of games. The Dodgers will only play one series against a losing team in the rest of August, a three-game set in Milwaukee and the Brewers have proven to be a potential spoiler team. In September, the Dodgers will play 16 of the final 25 games on the road which will make for a very difficult finish. Most of the games are within the division, but with a 23-30 season road record, Los Angeles will have a hard time picking up ground.

The Dodgers simply lack a pitching staff that can compete in the NL West. With Dodger Stadium, AT&T Park, and Petco Park playing as great pitching parks, starting pitching is of extreme importance in the NL West. Adding Ted Lilly at the trade deadline can help the cause, but he has endured a disappointing season. Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley have not been consistent this year and Clayton Kershaw does not provide enough innings to fit in as the ace of the team even though his results can be outstanding at times. Vicente Padilla has provided a recent boost, but in comparison with the rotations that the Padres and Giants, and even the Rockies offer, the high end quality is not present.

The Los Angeles bullpen has also failed to provide the dominant results that the unit had last season. Jonathan Broxton has converted 21 of 25 save opportunities, but he has been less overpowering than last season and is simply not getting enough chances. Hong-Chih Kuo has been an excellent left-handed specialist, but there have been too many disappointments in the pen, notably George Sherrill and Ramon Troncoso. Adding veteran Octavio Dotel adds some depth and experience to the staff, but he has not looked nearly as sharp in the set-up role after closing all season in a pressure-void atmosphere for the Pirates. While Los Angeles has the offensive pieces to compete in the NL West, especially with recent additions of Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot, and Jay Gibbons, the pitching does not appear to be able to compete, especially with the quality staffs presented by the current West leaders.

Cincinnati Reds

While it has been a nice season for the Reds, Tuesday’s brawl-marred loss to St. Louis could be remembered as the possible negative turning point in the season. This was a huge series for Cincinnati hosting the Cardinals and going down with a 0-3 result hurts significantly. In addition to the psychological advantage gained by the recent series win, St. Louis will also have a much more favorable path to close out the division. The race has a razor-thin margin at this point in the season, but St. Louis should pull away in the coming weeks while the Reds fall victim to a difficult schedule and not enough pitching depth.

Thirty-one of the final 49 games of the season for the Cardinals will be against losing teams and St. Louis will get to host the final series of the season with the Reds. While St. Louis closes the season with a four-game set with the Rockies, they also play the Pirates six times in the final two weeks of the season and have a heavy dose of the Cubs, Astros, Brewers and Nationals over the next two months. St. Louis will have more home games than road games the rest of the way to add to a 38-18 record at Busch Stadium while the Reds will face a tough path down the stretch with road games and tough competition.

Not to take anything away from what the Reds have done this season, but the schedule at this point in the season has been light. Cincinnati has gone 10-3 against the Cubs, 7-2 against the Astros, and 7-5 against the Pirates. That means Cincinnati is a sub-.500 team against the rest of the league. The Reds went just 8-7 in interleague play despite getting one the easiest interleague schedules in baseball, playing six games against Cleveland, three against Kansas City, three against Seattle, and three against Oakland. The Reds have also played zero games on the road in the NL West, a very competitive division stacked with quality teams and tough venues. Cincinnati went 0-3 in Seattle this year, so the difficulty of playing on the West Coast for eastern teams should not be underestimated.

The Reds pitching is also unable to compete with the rotation presented by the Cardinals. With Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, St. Louis owns two of the top pitchers in the NL. St. Louis owns the second-best team ERA in baseball and the fifth most quality starts. With Jaime Garcia, a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, St. Louis also has a far better third starter than most teams. With Jeff Suppan and Jake Westbrook the Cardinals have a capable back of the rotation even if the team gets nothing from Brad Penny or Kyle Lohse the rest of the way.

Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo have been solid this season, but expecting both to continue the current pace the rest of the way may be a stretch. Neither has the shutdown potential that the top two St. Louis starters have either. Rookies Mike Leake and Travis Wood have provided quality outings this season, but neither has been tested in big games in a pennant race and in Leake’s case his endurance will be severely tested with almost 130 innings already to his credit. Edinson Volquez is a wild card for Cincinnati, but the early returns have not been that promising in his return from major surgery. Overall, the Reds have received average pitching results and as the schedule stiffens the strain could be greater particularly on a bullpen that has taken 20 losses already this year.

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