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**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 06:54 PM

Marlins get another crack at rookie phenom Strasburg

Florida (54-56) at Washington (49-63), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Washington -185, Florida +175 Total: 7
Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA) is the reason the Nationals are a big favorite over the Marlins. Tonight will be his first start since coming off the disabled list. The rookie phenom has won his last three starts, including blanking the Marlins for six innings in Florida on July 16.
His mound opponent will be Anibal Sanchez (8-7, 3.50 ERA), who is coming off a shaky start against the Phillies (4 ER in 4.1 IP). However, FoxSheets tells us that Florida is 19-14 (+19.3 units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.3, OPPONENT 3.8 – (Rating = 2*). That’s reason enough to take a shot on the big underdog.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 06:55 PM

Ubaldo Jimenez to try to stay on track against Mets

Colorado (58-53) at New York Mets (55-56), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Colorado -156, New York +146 Total: 7.5
Ubaldo Jimenez (17-2, 2.61 ERA) appears back on track with two strong outings (2 ER, 8 hits in 14 innings) after a string of shaky starts. He’s the reason the Rockies are a big favorite on the road against the Mets, even though New York has been terrific at home this season (33-19) and Colorado has won only three of its last 24 games on the Mets’ home field.
While Mike Pelfrey (10-6, 4.16 ERA) has a good mark for the season, he has not won in his last seven starts. Even worse, he has not lasted six innings in any of the seven games. FoxSheets says to play against any team (Mets) with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (77-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 06:55 PM

Jurrjens still looking for his first win on the road

Atlanta (64-48) at Houston (48-63), 8:05 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Atlanta -144, Houston +134 Total: 8
The Astros had lost four straight before beating Atlanta last night with six runs in the 7th inning against the Braves bullpen. J.A. Happ (2-1, 4.03 ERA), who came over from the Phillies in the Roy Oswalt trade, will try to rebound from being bombed in his last start against the Cardinals (7 ER in 1 inning). With Philadelphia, Happ was 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. His mound opponent will be Jair Jurrjens (4-4, 4.48 ERA), who is 0-4 with a 7.63 ERA on the road this season.
FoxSheets tells us to play against road teams (Atlanta) after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (67-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +41.6 units. Rating = 4*). That’s reason enough to go with the home underdog.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 06:56 PM

Oakland appears enticing as road dog to King Felix

Oakland (56-55) at Seattle (43-70), 10:10 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: Seattle -132, Oakland +122 Total: 6.5
Seattle, which has the second worst record in the American League, got off to a good start under new manager Daren Brown with a win against the A’s last night. Felix Hernandez (7-9, 2.94 ERA) will be on the mound tonight for the Mariners. The Seattle ace is 0-4 since the All-Star break despite a strong 3.19 ERA.
Opposing him will be Brett Anderson (3-2, 3.14 ERA), who pitched well in beating Kansas City (7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) in his last start. FoxSheets says play on any team (Oakland) with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a well rested bullpen - threw 4 innings or less over last 3 games. (95-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +48.6 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 06:56 PM

Lincecum and Giants face ice-cold Cubbies

Chicago Cubs (47-65) at San Francisco (64-49), 10:15 p.m. EDT, Sports.com Line: San Francisco -195, Chicago Cubs +182 Total: 6.5
The Cubs are 1-11 in their last 12 games including a four-game losing skid. Tonight they are faced with the tall task of trying to beat Tim Lincecum (11-5, 3.14 ERA). Although he’s not pitching to his two-time National League Cy Young form, Lincecum is still having a good season. He’s 7-3 at home with eight quality starts in 11 starts.
Ryan Dempster (9-8, 3.76 ERA) will start tonight for the Cubs. Despite his 3-1 mark in his last six starts, Dempster has a 4.54 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP over this span.

FoxSheets says the Cubs are 29-43 (-20.6 units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season. The average score was CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 5.0 – (Rating = 2*). And when the right-hander is Tim Lincecum, it's tough to not go with the Giants.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 07:11 PM

Preview: Cubs (47-65) at Giants (64-49)

Game: 2
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: August 10, 2010 10:15 PM EDT

It's been more than a month since San Francisco's Tim Lincecum lost consecutive starts.

The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner looks to prevent that from happening while trying to help the wild-card leading Giants hand the Chicago Cubs a seventh straight road loss Tuesday night.

Lincecum (11-5, 3.15 ERA) allowed three runs on two homers in 6 1-3 innings of a 3-2 loss to NL East-leading Atlanta on Thursday. The right-hander, 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his previous five starts after losing two straight from June 27-July 2, has dropped back-to-back outings twice this season.

He had gone 67 starts without giving up multiple home runs before his last start.

"He is who he is for a reason," Atlanta's Eric Hinske told the Giants' official website. "His stuff is unbelievable. Pick a spot, pick a pitch maybe and take a good swing."

The Cubs (47-65) have not enjoyed many good swings against Lincecum, 3-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a .199 opponent batting average in six starts versus Chicago. However, he hopes for more support than his last outing against the Cubs when he gave up two runs and struck out seven in seven innings of a 3-0 home loss Sept. 25.

Chicago has been held to 10 runs during a four-game skid, including a 4-3 loss to the Giants (64-49) in 11 innings Monday, and has dropped 11 of 12.

The Giants have a one-game lead over Philadelphia and St. Louis for the wild card. They are 1 1/2 games behind NL West-leading San Diego.

Pat Burrell had two hits and drove in the winning run with a sacrifice fly Monday as San Francisco rebounded from a 2-4 road trip to win its fourth consecutive home game. Burrell is 11 for 30 with seven RBIs in his last 10 games.

"I've been confident in Pat ever since he got here," teammate Aubrey Huff said. "He has that playoff mentality."

Burrell is a .320 hitter with five doubles against Chicago's Ryan Dempster (9-8, 3.76), who will try for a second straight victory after allowing three runs and three hits in six innings of a 15-3 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday.

Though the right-hander is 1-7 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts versus San Francisco, Dempster went 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two during 2009.

Starlin Castro had two hits in the opener for the Cubs, who could not hold on to a pair of leads. One of the few bright spots during Chicago's disappointing season, the rookie shortstop is batting .387 in his last 25 games.

Looking to avoid losing seven straight on the road for the first time since May 19-June 2, 2009, the Cubs are without first baseman Derrek Lee and catcher Geovany Soto for the series. Lee was placed on the bereavement list to be with his ill grandfather, while Soto is on the disabled list with a sprained right shoulder ligament.

Chicago bench coach Alan Trammel, meanwhile, continues to manage the team while Lou Piniella remains in Tampa, Fla., with his ailing mother. There is no timetable for when Piniella might rejoin the club.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-10-2010, 07:12 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Royals at Angels – The Angels are 0-5 since June 14, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $745 when playing against.

Braves at Astros – The Astros are 9-0 since June 02, 2010 at home after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1035.

Red Sox at Blue Jays – The Red Sox are 0-6 since June 30, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $870 when playing against. The Red Sox are 0-5 since July 20, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $870 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 8-0 since May 15, 2010 at home when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $855.

Diamondbacks at Brewers – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 15, 2010 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Brewers are 6-0 since July 29, 2009 when Manny Parra starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $680. The Brewers are 5-0 since June 06, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $645.

Cubs at Giants – The Cubs are 0-7 since April 24, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $730 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-7 since May 21, 2010 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Giants are 7-0 since April 30, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $700.

Orioles at Indians – The Orioles are 0-6 since May 05, 2010 on the road when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Indians are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $500 when playing against.

Athletics at Mariners – The Athletics are 7-0 since July 20, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $795.

Rockies at Mets – The Rockies are 0-6 since May 07, 2010 on the road after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $690 when playing against. The Mets are 7-0 since June 08, 2010 at home after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $700.

Marlins at Nationals – The Marlins are 5-0 since May 19, 2010 as a road dog after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $730. The Nationals are 8-0 since April 08, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $940.

Pirates at Padres – The Pirates are 0-10 since May 28, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-9 since April 30, 2010 on the road when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Padres are 7-0 since May 30, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700.

Dodgers at Phillies – The Phillies are 10-0 since May 05, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $1010. The Phillies are 7-0 since May 05, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $750.

Yankees at Rangers – The Yankees are 8-0 since May 30, 2010 after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 0-5 since August 27, 2009 when A.J. Burnett starts after giving up 2 or more home runs and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $715 when playing against.

Cardinals at Reds – The Cardinals are 0-12 since April 08, 2010 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1400 when playing against. The Reds are 7-0 since May 03, 2010 as a home favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led for a net profit of $700.

Rays at Tigers – The Tigers are 5-0 since May 15, 2010 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $545. The Tigers are 0-5 since April 12, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Twins at White Sox – The Twins are 7-0 since July 22, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $770. The White Sox are 0-5 since April 08, 2010 at home after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

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