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**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 09:57 AM

NFL Preseason Betting Tips

It may be HOT and many folks are still on vacation, but August kicks off the best time of the sports betting calendar: Football season! Competition on the field won't be as intense as September, of course, as wins aren't as important as evaluating young talent and trying to keep players healthy. However, there will be betting lines available on preseason pro action and it's possible to cash winning tickets. Here are some things to keep in mind when watching preseason football.

Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" game plans, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals are lower than the regular season. For example, in the first preseason game two years ago, the high-powered Saints played the Steelers and the total was 34. It went under in a 20-7 Pittsburgh win. If the game had been during the regular season, the total would have been closer to 44 with two big-name QBs in Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. In fact, when the Saints opened that season at the Colts, the total was 53. In the third preseason game, with starters projected to play more, the Saints total against the Chiefs jumped up to 37 (it was a push in 30-7 final). Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are often the case for the first two weeks of preseason.

Home Field: While home field is a big edge when games count in the post and regular seasons, home field is less important in preseason, especially in Week 4. The last two years the home team has gone 22-13 SU and 20-11-1 ATS in Week 4, but that was unusual. The previous four years, the visiting team is still 29-17-1 ATS in Week 4 of the preseason.

Newspapers: Keeping tabs daily on what local beat writers are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will hint at potential strategy, such as "We're going to open up the passing game a bit in the first half this week. Or, "Our starters will play two series just to get their feet wet." These tidbits are key and a successful sports bettor knows how to evaluate coaching comments, injuries, and how strategy changes may influence the side and total.
A few years ago in a preseason game, the Atlanta Falcons coach was furious with his team's play the week before and announced that the starters would play the entire three quarters. The line jumped from Atlanta as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6 by kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won and covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan (and anger) revealed by the coach.

Quarterback Play: Quarterback is the single most important position on the football field. Think of the Super Bowl matchups the last decade: How many below average QBs have gotten their team to the big game? The Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer and Chicago's Rex Grossman. QB play is essential and a key this time of year as starters don't play the whole game. When wagering on a favorite in preseason, it's important to carefully evaluate the No. 2 and 3 QBs as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team with a great starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor backup QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.

Coaches: Coaching is such an important part of football, as so many players need to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some coaches are more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back. Notice that Bill Belichick is 34-23 SU, 32-22-1 ATS all time in preseason. New Redskin's Coach Mike Shanahan has an August record of 43-26 SU, 37-27-2 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 09:58 AM

Pro Football Teams with Something to Prove

Frustration and failure can prove excellent motivating factors in sports. We see quality teams get beaten badly all the time, then bounce back the next game with a terrific performance with an easy win. This can also take place with teams that are off disappointing seasons.
It may seem a distant memory now, but the Bears ended the 2005 season with a blowout loss at the Vikings (34-10) then a home loss to the Panthers in the playoffs, 29-21. The next season, the Bears were a very motivated team, going 15-3 while winning the NFC. They were on a mission all year.
Three years ago in this column I pointed out, "The spotlight is on NY Giants coach Tom Coughlin. He was a cinch to be fired after the team went 2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS in 2006. They were sloppy, undisciplined and fractured after a 6-2 start. There are plenty of big-names with something to prove." They proved it, all right, rolling to a surprising Super Bowl title. When channeled properly, frustration can be focused into positive energy. Here are some NFL teams that may have something to prove in 2010.

Ravens: An up and down 9-7 regular season, followed by a 20-3 wipeout loss in the playoffs to the Colts. Even a Wild Card win over New England (33-14) couldn't erase how uneven this team was, despite a defense ranked third overall and an offense ranked 13th.
The great defense adds rookies LB Sergio Kindle (Texas) and NT Terrance Cody (Alabama) while the offense made a big splash trading for WR Anquan Boldin and taking a chance on speedy WR Donte' Stallworth. Note that Baltimore is 49-10 SU/36-21-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2003.

Eagles: The Eagles have had a great ten-year run under Andy Reid and come off another fine regular season at 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS. However, it ended ugly, with consecutive losses (24-0, 34-14) to the rival Cowboys, the latter a playoff game. Then star QB Donovan McNabb was surprisingly shipped out to division rival Washington.
So Reid is putting all his chips on 25-year old QB Kevin Kolb. Kolb started in Weeks 2 and 3 last year and became the first quarterback to exceed 300 yards passing in his first two starts. On the other hand, he had 4 TDs, 3 picks and has 4 TDs, 7 picks in his young career. With all the focus on QB, the Eagles placed an emphasis on defense in the draft, grabbing nine defensive players. The secondary has been shuffled, with the trade of Sheldon Brown.

Giants: The stats suggest the 2009 Giants were a strong team, ranked 13th in total defense, 8th in offense and starting 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. Yet, they flopped, not even making the playoffs, finishing 3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS. The loss of DC Steve Spagnuolo seemed to cause havoc, as the secondary was torched often.
QB Eli Manning (27 TDs, 14 INTs, 4,021 yards) could have had bigger numbers if his receivers didn't keep dropping passes. The Giants let everyone know where their emphasis was in the offseason, grabbing defensive players with their first four draft picks. DE Jason Pierre-Paul (South Florida) is an interesting talent, though many thought it was a first round reach.

Vikings: It's not often you find teams that reach the NFC Championship game with something to prove the next year. Minnesota ranked 5th in total offense with exceptional balance and 6th in total defense.
Yet, the lasting memory is off a team that blew a Super Bowl appearance and very likely a championship. The numbers are still mind boggling: they dominated the Saints in the NFC title game, with an edge in yards 475-257, including 165 yards rushing. 6 fumbles (3 lost) and five turnovers overall resulted in a horrifying 31-28 overtime loss. It must have been painful to watch the Saints two weeks later beat the Colts in the Super Bowl.

Chargers: San Diego had a dominant regular season, going 13-3 with the 10th ranked offense and 16th in total defense. They came into the playoffs on a 12-0 SU, 7-4-1 ATS run, but no one remembers that after another playoff gag job, this time 17-14 at home to the upstart Jets as a 9-point favorite.
There were a lot of offseason changes. The defense dealt CB Antonio Cromartie, added three time Pro Bowl left tackle Tra Thomas, while the offense hopes rookie RB Ryan Matthews (Fresno State) can replace LaDainian Tomlinson. San Diego is on a 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS run on the road.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 09:59 AM

New Coaches Hope to Upgrade Pro/College Programs

Football head coaches get all the glory, but top assistants can be extremely important in a team's success or failure. Offensive and defensive coordinators have great influence on game plans and a unit's effectiveness. There was no better example than former NY Giants' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, now with the Rams. He came over from the Eagles under outstanding DC Jim Johnson and was a key cog in their amazing 2007 Super Bowl run.

Assistants are often the NFL star head coaches of tomorrow, as well. A former defensive assistant, Lovie Smith, took the Bears to the Super Bowl (before getting on the hot seat). Bill Parcells lost one of his top assistants four years ago, Sean Payton, who went to New Orleans and helped lead the Saints Super Bowl title turnaround.

Competent football assistants can be huge assets. Buddy Ryan was the principle architect of the Bears' 46 defense that led the way to the 1986 Super Bowl. He left the team after that victory and the Bears were never as dominant defensively. Let's look at some key coaching changes in the college and pro ranks.

Seahawks: Pete Carroll left the football factory of USC for another stint in the NFL. He coached the 1994 NY Jets (6-10 SU, 5-9-2 ATS) and the Patriots from 1997-99 (28-23 SU, 21-25-2 ATS). That’s a combined 26-34-4 ATS mark in the pros. At the all-important QB position he inherits a very good one in Matt Hasselbeck, who will turn 35 in September.

He’s battled injuries, so it’s no surprise Carroll used the No. 6 pick in the draft on mammoth Oklahoma State tackle Russell Okung. They had another first round selection in Texas safety Earl Tomas (No. 14) and grabbed Notre Dame WR Golden Tate in the second round. Carroll’s biggest mistake in New England was bringing in Ernie Zampese as offensive coordinator, which was a disaster. He brings in Jeremy Bates, who ran the offense at USC and worked under Mike Shanahan and Jon Gruden in the pros.

Redskins: Mike Shanahan inherits a 4-12 team, but what a boatload of talent and promise. Injuries decimated the Redskins last season, but they welcome back TE Chris Cooley and a backfield of 28-year old Clinton Portis, plus newcomers Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. Shanahan addressed the offensive line with Oklahoma tackle Trent Williams, the No. 4 pick in the draft.

They like young WR Malcolm Kelly alongside Santana Moss (902 yards). Now, who is going get them the football? Dumping Jason Campbell for star QB Donovan McNabb was a no-brainer, a huge upgrade at the most important position. Shanahan has a terrific offensive mind (Bill Belichick has praised him for years as the best coach in the NFL) and don’t forget the Redskins were ranked No. 4 and No. 10 overall in total defense the last two years.

Notre Dame: New Coach Brian Kelly turned Cincinnati into a powerhouse and steps up to a high profile program. He was 34-7 with the Bearcats over three years. This Notre Dame offense was very good under Charlie Weis, averaging 30 points, 128 yards rushing and 323 yards passing in 2009 and Kelly brings in his own pro-style/spread attack.

The bad news is that QB Jimmy Clausen and WR Golden Tate are off to the NFL. The entire starting offensive line needs to be replaced and junior QB Dayne Christ is coming off major knee surgery. QB Nate Montana (the son of former great Joe) is in the mix. Kelly preaches physical defensive play, something Weis was never able to upgrade. The defense gets everyone back on the front seven, but they allowed too many big plays and blown leads. Kelly is the right guy, but Notre Dame fans will need patience.

La Tech: Totals players might want to make a note of this small school coaching change. Derek Dooley left for Tennessee, a coach who loved the ground game. New Coach Sonny Dykes is the opposite, the former offensive coordinator at Texas Tech and Arizona with those wide-open, chuck-it-at-all-costs passing attacks. He took an Arizona offense that averaged 16 points per game before he arrived to 30 points per game. Nine starters are back on offense, seven on defense, including senior QB Ross Jenkins (17 TDs, 5 INTs).

USC: New Coach Lane Kiffin inherits a squad that was overvalued in 2009 at 4-9 ATS. Kiffin is one of the most famous young coaches in the country, odd for a guy who hasn’t done much winning. His 2010 Trojans returns 11 starters (5 on offense, 6 on defense) including sophomore QB Matt Barkley (15 TDs and 14 picks). The offense lost a lot of firepower, though.

There is plenty of experience on defense for new DC Monte Kiffin, but they struggled uncharacteristically at times in 2009 because of youth, getting blasted by Oregon (44 points) and Stanford (55 points). USC is 24-9 under the total the last three years. Tennessee was 7-6 last season under Kiffin, losing a string of close games, one to UCLA as an 11-point favorite. He doesn’t want to make a habit of losing to the Bruins!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 10:01 AM

Sunday Tips

The baseball weekend concludes on Sunday with several teams trying to widen gaps in their respective division race. The Red Sox look to keep their season alive in the Bronx against the Yankees, while the Padres close out their series in the desert against the Diamondbacks. We'll begin in the East Bay with the A's attempting to narrow the Rangers' lead in the AL West.

Rangers at A's - 4:05 PM EST

It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Texas to lose the AL West title, as the Rangers try to do something on Sunday they have failed to do in three previous tries. Trevor Cahill has turned into the ace of the Oakland pitching staff, while shutting down this vaunted Rangers offense in three starts this season.

Cahill (11-4, 2.72 ERA) is the fourth-most profitable starting pitcher in baseball this season, clearing 10.7 units for backers. The Oakland right-hander is coming off consecutive scoreless efforts in wins over Kansas City and Texas, including a two-hit gem in eight innings at Ameriquest Field on July 28. Cahill has silenced the Rangers in each matchup, limiting the AL West leaders to three runs (two earned) in three victories, all as an underdog.

The pitcher on the losing side of Cahill's three wins in these matchups is Colby Lewis (9-8, 3.45 ERA), as the Rangers' righty goes for his first victory against Oakland since 2004. Lewis hasn't pitched poorly in those three defeats, giving up seven earned runs in 20 innings of work. The veteran has struggled to get in the win column recently, picking up only one victory since the All-Star Break in four starts, an 8-4 decision at Boston. Lewis returns to home state of California looking for his fourth underdog win of the season, as the Rangers' righty has cashed the 'under' in five of his last six outings.

Oakland owns a dynamic 21-11 record in Game 3's this season, including a 12-3 mark at home. Texas has finished 'under' the total in nine of its last 12 road games, while seven times the Rangers have held opponents to four runs or less.

Padres at Diamondbacks - 4:10 PM EST

The home team has been pretty been much an automatic "W" when these teams meet up, going 9-1 this season. The Diamondbacks avenged a three-game sweep at Petco Park right after the All-Star Break with Friday's 2-1 victory over the Padres. Arizona has played recently, owning a 5-3 mark over the last eight games, including a series victory at New York. The Padres' offense has been hit-or-miss on this road trip, scoring one run or less in three of five games.

Mat Latos (11-5, 2.47 ERA) has bloomed in his first complete season with the Padres, winning seven times on the highway. Latos looks to rebound from a loss in his last outing at Los Angeles, dropping a 2-1 decision to the Dodgers despite allowing four hits and two runs in six innings. That setback ended an eight-game winning streak by the Padres with Latos on the mound, as the young right-hander allowed two runs or less in each outing. Latos has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career, as he looks to cash his ninth 'under' in his last 12 starts.

The D-Backs send out southpaw Joe Saunders (1-0, 1.69 ERA), making his third start since getting dealt from the Angels for Dan Haren. Following a no-decision in his Arizona debut at Philadelphia, Saunders limited the Nationals to five hits and one run in a complete-game victory his last time out. Saunders' teams are 0-4 his previous four starts as an underdog, but the lefty did shut down the Padres last season in Anaheim, holding San Diego to one run in 8.1 innings of a 9-1 blowout.

The Padres will have to overcome the road team woes in this series to pick up a Sunday victory, as San Diego is 2-8 the last 10 meetings at Chase Field. Although Arizona has been dreadful all season, the D-Backs don't help bettors in Game 3 of a series, owning an 11-22 mark.

Red Sox at Yankees - 8:05 PM EST

The banged-up Red Sox aren't going away just yet in the AL East race, grabbing the series opener on Friday night by a 6-3 count. Thanks to Tampa Bay's stumbles recently, Boston is creeping up in the Wild Card race quickly. The Yankees will try to distance themselves from both the Rays and Red Sox in the third game of this four-game series in the Bronx.

A pair of former Marlins' fireballers takes the mound as A.J. Burnett faces off against 2003 World Series MVP Josh Beckett. Burnett (9-9, 4.93 ERA) had pitched well in his two prior starts in wins over the Royals and Indians, but was knocked around by his ex-mates as the Blue Jays tagged the righty for eight earned runs in 4.1 innings of an 8-6 loss. The Red Sox have Burnett's number since he joined the Yankees in 2009, beating him in four of six opportunities. Five of those starts did come at Fenway Park, as his lone outing at Yankee Stadium was a 2-0 masterpiece almost to the day, tossing the one-hit gem on August 7, 2009.

Beckett (3-1, 5.70 ERA) is rounding back into his ace form by delivering a pair of quality starts in wins over the Angels and Indians. The right-hander started the season with some struggles on the road, but he has allowed four earned runs in his last away outings at Los Angeles and Seattle. Beckett hasn't put up the best numbers recently against the Bombers, giving up 25 earned runs in his previous four starts versus New York. The Sox managed to get Beckett off the hook in a 7-6 victory in May as he lasted only 4.2 innings.

The road team is 6-3 in the season series, with the Sox capturing two of three meetings in the Bronx. The Yankees have played their best in Game 3 of a series, owning a 21-11 mark. Boston has profited recently as a road underdog, cashing in five of its last six in this spot.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 10:30 AM

Books laugh at TO, Bengals

The Bengals signing of wide receiver Terrell Owens may have sent shockwaves through Cincinnati and had the folks at VH-1 salivating over a possible ratings spike for the reality shows of him and Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco air on the network, but in Las Vegas Sportsbooks, the reality is that the bookmakers didn’t even blink.
“We opened the Bengals at 30/1 at the beginning of the year to win the title,“ said Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, “and now that they got Owens, they should be at 300/1.”

Vaccaro said so in a half jokingly manner, but he’s not alone with his perception of Owens and the detrimental role he could play within a team. Last year with the Bills was the first team where he was somewhat quiet in regards to chastising his teammates. In years past, Owens has questioned everything from his quarterbacks’ sexuality, ones desire to win, to conspiring secret plays with another player, and worst of all, everything played out in the media while Owens and his teams were in contention.

Perhaps last year -- with the Bills losing -- Owens wasn’t on a big enough stage to warrant the media attention he craves that somehow forces him to say exactly what’s on his mind. Or, maybe he’s just grown up a little over the years and now he sees that he has to plead for a near league minimum contract from anyone, and that his past antics have blackballed himself.

“I don’t think Owens makes a difference either way to the Bengals,” says Vaccaro, “but the public does have some interest in him in regards to what he’ll actually do on the season, so we are going to put some individual ‘over-under’ props on him with maybe a season matchup prop between him and Ochocinco.”

Vaccaro and his ace staff lead by the dynamic proposition master, Adam Pullen, immediately offered a few props on the hot topic. The over-under on Owens touchdown receptions was set at 6 (over -145) with receiving yards set at 770 (under -120). Lucky's also posted a duo prop with Ochoconco and Owens asking how many combined receptions the reality stars will have in 2010 with an opening number of 126 (under -120).

The main question to be asked regarding the props, and how well Owens does this year, is how quarterback Carson Palmer is going to have enough balls to go around within their ground orientated offense to satisfy the trio of alpha-dog personalities at wide receiver.

Does the signing of Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant -- a player they paid much more to get than Owens in a four year deal -- mean that the Bengals are now willing to scrap the winning formula from last year to accommodate their high profile wide receiver signings. Something tells me that the Bengals are going to be closer to what they were last season rather than a high flying aerial attack like some believe the case to be because of the signings.

Palmer finished the 2009 season as the 16th rated passer with less pass attempts (466) and yards (3,094) than the top 15 in front of him. Only Donovan McNabb had a lower completion percentage than Palmer (60.5%) among the top-16 rated quarterbacks.

On only one occasion last season did Palmer throw for more than 300 yards, a Week 15 loss to the Chargers (24-27), and in only two instances did Palmer have 40 or more pass attempts.

Then you have the durability of the former USC standout to consider. He missed nearly the entire 2008 season and it’s quite possible that the team felt the best way to keep Palmer healthy in games was to become a run orientated team and not force him to throw so much. The formula worked as the Bengals won their division with Palmer healthy all season.

Last season Owens proved to be valuable once Bills head coach Dick Jauron was fired. Owens gained most of his yardage and touchdowns in the second-half when they decided to use their best weapon, but the Bills still lost more than they won.

Owens is now 36 coming off his worst statistical year of any season since his rookie year that he played 15 games or more. His one-year contract is worth $2 million with another $2 million based on personal incentives. By looking at what direction the team is going in and by having too many receivers who want their catches to achieve their own bonus incentives, look for Owens to come up with a low, but respectable 45 receptions, 750 yards, and 5 touchdowns

**zeib10** · 08-08-2010, 11:16 AM

Nice post. Let's start it off with a winner tonight.

**Jimmy The Greek** · 08-08-2010, 11:51 AM

WTG Bud , Nice Rebound Last Night . . .

**StarDust Bum** · 08-08-2010, 05:06 PM

Hall-of-Fame Game, let the football begin

Sunday marks the beginning of the football betting season and though the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals may be tagged as just an “exhibition” game, it means much more than that to those who have missed partaking in one of their favorite hobbies since February. The Hall-of-Fame Game from Canton, Ohio is a tradition that football fans love, and for 2010, the Sportsbook.com pointspread finds Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite with a total that has plummeted from 35 to 32.5. Let’s take a look at the matchup and the betting history of the HOF game.

Both the Bengals and the Cowboys come off playoff seasons, but for Dallas, the expectations for 2010 are much higher than they are in the Queen City. In fact, there are many experts out there that believe that the Cowboys have what it takes to become the first team ever to play in a Super Bowl they are hosting. Cincinnati has of course added wide receiver Terrell Owens to the mix this season to join Chad Ochocinco. Talk about a nightmare for quarterback Carson Palmer.

The Bengals cleaned up their act on and off the field last season and the result was a breakthrough 10-win campaign that brought the AFC North title in tow. Though the playoff loss at home to the Jets was a disappointment, the future is as bright as it’s been during the Marvin Lewis era as after going 6-0 in division play a year ago, followed by a promising offseason, repeat potential is no laughing matter…Much success can be traced to an offense led by a rejuvenated Cedric Benson at RB and a healthy Carson Palmer under center. The passing game ranked just 26th at 180.6 YPG but beginning in late October, Palmer enjoyed a nine-game stretch where he threw for 13 scores and four interceptions. The Bengals’ defense ranked No. 4 overall, allowing 301.4 YPG, and no worse than seventh against the run and pass, and sixth in scoring defense. That came despite numerous injuries. The big thing for Cincinnati will be fighting off a trend that has seen them struggle to string together big seasons.

Specifically regarding the preseason, the Bengals are 12-8 ATS for 60% over the last five seasons. They are expected to go with a quarterback rotation of Carson Palmer – JT O’Sullivan – Jordan Palmer.

For the Cowboys, the mantra beginning training camp has become Super Bowl or bust. With as quiet as the offseason was, it is believed that owner Jerry Jones feels his franchise is ready to reach the top of the NFC. The primary reason is the growth of QB Tony Romo, who got the monkey off his back by beating Philadelphia in the wildcard playoff, the first postseason victory for the Cowboys since the mid-90’s. They also enjoyed a strong December for once, that bought the Wade Phillips regime one more season. However, anything less than two steps forward will likely have him pounding the unemployment line following this season. The offense looks even better and the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. No wonder the expectations are so high.

Oddsmakers seem to be looking at this game through mid- to late-90’s glasses, as they are giving the Cowboys very little respect in this contest. The Cowboys had developed a well-know reputation for tanking their preseason games back then, but the new era has been much different. In fact, Dallas has not had a losing preseason campaign since 2001, going 20-11-1 SU & 19-13 ATS, good for 59%. Their quarterback rotation figures to be Tony Romo – Jon Kitna – Stephen McGee – Matt Nichols. Romo had been experiencing some shoulder soreness early in training camp but that has subsided of late. However, I wouldn’t expect more than a series or two from him.

This will be Dallas’ first appearance in the HOF game since 1999, a 20-17 loss but spread cover against Cleveland. The Bengals last played in Canton in 1988, beating the then Los Angeles Rams 14-7. Of course, Canton is just a short jaunt from Cincinnati, meaning the Bengals could enjoy somewhat of a home field advantage. That more than anything may be the reason they are favored.

In terms of Hall-of-Fame Game trends, FAVORITES are on a run of 6-1 SU & 4-1-2 ATS, with the 2004 game closing at a pick em’ spread. The last two games, and four of the last six have gone OVER the total. Note that in the last 10 times the total has dropped from its opening number in this game, the OVER is 6-4.

This will be the first preseason meeting between these teams since prior to 1993. Kickoff for the contest is set for 8:00 PM ET from Canton, OH on NBC.

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