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**Spark** · 08-07-2010, 11:34 AM

Good Luck Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 08-07-2010, 11:59 AM

Blue Bombers and Tiger-Cats square off for third time

Winnipeg (2-3) at Hamilton (1-4), Saturday, 7:05 p.m. EDT Line: Hamilton -3, Total: 54
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats square off for the third time this season, with each team winning on their own home turf. Winnipeg defeated Hamilton 49-29 in the season opener for both teams. The Tiger-Cat defense, scorched in the first meeting, responded in a big way as it stifled the Blue Bombers 28-7 in their second meeting.
Hamilton has given up an average of 41 PPG in its three road games, but just 15 PPG in its two home contests. The Tiger-Cats have yet to score 30 points in a game themselves, home or away. While Winnipeg has been prolific at home, scoring over 43 PPG this season, the Blue Bombers have had a more difficult time scoring on the road, posting a total of 27 points in two games away from home.

FoxSheets make the case for Hamilton covering the 3 points in a lower-scoring affair:

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WINNIPEG) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. (45-19 since 1996.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 2*)

HAMILTON is 37-12 UNDER (+23.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996. The average score was HAMILTON 24.9, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-07-2010, 12:00 PM

Saturday offers two more Arena playoff games

The other pair of conference semifinal games in the Arena Football League are scheduled for Saturday night, and in these, the #2 seeds in each conference play host to the #3’s. Because these aren’t the top seeds, the hosts for tonight’s games may be getting overlooked a bit as experts analyze their chances at winning the Arena Bowl. However, both Milwaukee and Tulsa have played very well down the stretch and have enjoyed a strong home field advantage all season long. Chicago and Tampa Bay will need to be at their best to have a shot at winning on the road.

(495) TAMPA BAY at (496) TULSA - 8:00 PM
* American Conference Semifinals
Bookmaker Line: Tulsa by 1, Total: 112
Tulsa went 6-2 SU & ATS at home in 2010 in front of the BOK Center fans, and one of those wins came over Tampa Bay in the season opener, 69-58. However, very few handicappers would look to that game for anything valuable in predicting what might happen on Saturday. These teams have evolved too much since. In fact, Tampa Bay was only a shell of the team it is now at that point. The Storm was just 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in the first six weeks of the season and has gone 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS since. Not to be outdone by a whole lot, the Talons closed the regular season on a 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS run.

Perhaps the thing that Tulsa has to be most excited about as the playoffs open is the performance they enjoyed against other American Conference foes this season:

TULSA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season. The average score was TULSA 65.3, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)

This will be the Talons’ first foray into the Arena League’s top level playoff party. That is in stark contrast to the rich history of the Tampa Bay franchise, who is going after its sixth AFL title.

One of the knock on the Storm this season is that it played a relatively easy schedule, the easiest in the Arena League when considering average ******* Opponent Power Rating. As such, their own power rating hasn’t evolved quite as much as you’d expect of an 11-5 team. That is evidenced in the fact that the ******* Power Line for this game indicates that Tulsa should be favored by 3-points.

(497) CHICAGO at (498) MILWAUKEE - 8:00 PM
* National Conference Semifinals
Bookmaker Line: Milwaukee by 9.5, Total: 116
The Milwaukee Iron are beaming with confidence as the playoffs open, and get their shot at a downtrodden Rush team that are limping into the postseason. These regional rivals will kickoff at 8:00 PM ET from US Cellular Arena in Milwaukee, as the Iron’s usual home, the Bradley Center, is out of commission due to some scoreboard enhancements being done.

Milwaukee is hot, having won its last four games, both SU & ATS, while scoring a whopping 67 PPG. Of course, when you consider that the Iron led the league in scoring this year at 65.2 PPG, that recent total is just slightly higher than their average. It is that offensive prowess and the presence of potential AFL MVP quarterback Chris Greisen that has many people predicting a league title for the team from Brew City. For Saturday, Milwaukee’s offensive strength leads to the top ******* ATS system of the week:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MILWAUKEE) - with an excellent offense - averaging 320 or more total yards/game. (47-21 since 1996.) (69.1%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*)

Where Milwaukee has gotten hot, Chicago has certainly not. The Rush would have been better off had the playoffs begun about a month ago. They are without quarterback Russ Michna, who was well on his way to setting several franchise records before succumbing to injury a few weeks ago. JJ Raternik has stepped in for Michna adequately, but the offense is nowhere near as prolific as it was prior. Chicago has lost three of its last four games SU & ATS, and though having played well, has crumbled at crunch time in those contests.

Rush coach Mike Hohensee has to be very concerned with this ******* Power Trend:

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 55 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 50.3, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 2*)

These teams split the two head-to-head games this season, with the home teams winning both.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-07-2010, 12:18 PM

Fox Saturday Baseball

It’s not the biggest card that Fox has had for its baseball tilts on a Saturday afternoon. What it lacks in quality, however, it makes up for in quality. The national crowd will either get to see the Red Sox battle the Yankees in the Bronx or Texas heading West for a battle with the Athletics. Let’s take a look at both battles.

Red Sox (62-47, -26) at Yankees (67-40, +485) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox

There is little argument that the American League East has been the class of the big leagues this season. You can do that when three of the best clubs are housed in that cluster. But we are on the verge of seeing one team bow out as the Red Sox sit six games behind first-place New York at the time of this writing.

Some might wonder what Boston is in this spot as they’ve won seven of its last 10 games. The biggest reason I can offer up to you is the loss of Kevin Youkilis for the remainder of the campaign with a torn muscle in his right thumb. It hurts double as “Youk” has been the BoSox’s best bat against the Yankees, hitting .462 with a pair of homers and nine runs batted in.

John Lackey (10-6, 4.48) can’t swing the bat like that bald bully, but he sure can pitch. The former Halo had a lousy outing against the Tribe on Aug. 2 (6 ER in 5.1 IP). Yet Lackey has looked quite sharp in his past two starts away from Fenway, pitching 15.1 innings and giving up two earned runs for wins against the Angels and Mariners. The right-hander also shut down the Yanks’ offense in his last outing against them…of course, that was back on April 7. This is Lackey’s first start at the new Yankee Stadium. He was 3-3 with a 3.76 earned run average at the old house.

New York hit a snag recently while Alex Rodriguez was on his quest for good non-detectable PEDs and his 600th home run, losing its first three games of the month. Now that A-Rod has put that honor behind him against Toronto, the Yankees can continue their dogfight with Tampa Bay for the AL East lead.

One of the best ways for the Bombers to keep pace with the Rays is by putting their ace on the mound. C.C. Sabathia (13-5, 3.19) will gladly acquiesce to Joe Girardi’s needs on Saturday afternoon. The hefty lefty has lost his last two starts, but he’s done enough win in those games, yielding five earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. The problem there was that he got one run scored for him by the Yankees’ vaunted attack. Luckily for New York supporters, Sabathia has been practically automatic at home this season, evidenced by a 7-0 mark with a 2.69 ERA in 10 starts.

The Yankees have fared well in the rivalry this year, taking five of the first eight battles. Players looking for the totals would be wise to hit the ‘over’ as it has cashed in seven of those meetings. Boston has lost its last four games as a road pup in AL East battles this year with the ‘over’ going 3-1. New York has won eight of its last 12 games as a home “chalk” against divisional brethren.

Rangers (63-45, +413) at Athletics (54-53, +211) – 4:10 p.m. EDT, Fox

Things are good in Texas right now. The Rangers have new ownership, headed by the inventor of the Robin Ventura Punching Bag, Nolan Ryan. They also are home to the biggest division league in all of baseball at 8 ½-games against Oakland. Not Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale quality, but impressive nonetheless.

The Rangers will look to Rich Harden (4-3, 5.25) to help tighten that stranglehold on its divisional competition. Harden has been a bit of a road warrior of sorts recently with four of his last five starts outside of Arlington. That’s been a good thing for Texas as they’ve won three of those four tests. One thing to keep in mind is that Harden has posted a quality 19-9 record with an ERA of 2.91 for his career. If those numbers sound bloated, they should since he was an Athletic for his first 5 ½ seasons in the bigs.

Gio Gonzalez (9-7, 3.69) will get the nod for Saturday’s showdown in Oakland. Gonzalez has been a nice surprise for the A’s this season in their rotation. He’s coming off of an eight inning performance that saw him allow just four earned runs to the White Sox. The problem was that his offense scored just one run for him. Run support has been lacking for the southpaw for the past two months as Oakland scored three or less runs in seven of his last 10 starts. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Athletics dropped five of those decisions.

Something that the A’s can hang their hat on for this series is that they have gone 11-5 at home against teams from the AL West. Texas, on the other hand, is just 8-7 in road tests against divisional foes. But the Rangers have feasted on lefties as road pups, evidenced by a 3-1 mark. This season series has been one for the home teams as they’re 6-3 in nine matches.

**jt4545** · 08-07-2010, 02:03 PM

good luck Bum and thanks.

**bryce** · 08-07-2010, 02:51 PM

Good luck SDB!!

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