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**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:12 PM

Will Baltimore's Buck stop here?

Chicago White Sox (62-46) at Baltimore (35-73), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Chicago White Sox -170, Baltimore +150 Total: 9
The White Sox and Orioles meet for the first time of the season on Friday. The ChiSox come to Baltimore having taken three of four in Detroit. They have now won nine of their last 11 games. The Orioles are coming off of a three-game sweep of the Angels in Buck Showalter's first three games as the new skipper and will be trying to match their longest winning streak of the season.
Since starting the season 4-5, White Sox starter John Danks (11-8, 3.40 ERA) has gone 7-3. He ranks 5th in the AL with a WHIP of 1.14. Orioles starter Brad Bergesen (3-9, 6.63 ERA) is 0-7 in his last 13 starts and his team is 1-12 over that span. He hasn't posted a win since May 12.

FoxSheets'>http://foxsheets.*******.com/foxsheet.asp?s=mlb&g=free">FoxSheets gives further reason to bet against struggling pitchers like Bergesen:

Play Against - Any team (BALTIMORE) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. (76-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +41.2 units. Rating = 3*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:27 PM

A pair of aces take the hill in AL West showdown

Texas (63-45) at Oakland (54-53), 10:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Texas -160, Oakland +140 Total: 7
It will be Oakland’s perfect game pitcher against the Texas southpaw who might be the best pitcher in the American League when the top two teams in the AL West play tonight. But the race for first isn’t that close as Texas leads by 8½ games, the largest margin of the six divisions in baseball.
Dallas Braden (6-7, 3.63 ERA) has won his last two starts for the A’s after going winless in his previous nine games following his perfect game against the Rays. Cliff Lee, who 10 days ago gave up one unearned run in nine innings against Oakland, is 9-5 with a league-leading 2.51 ERA. In 11 career outings against the A’s he is 4-2 with a 2.26 ERA, which is his lowest ERA against any AL team.

Another reason to like Texas, which is a big road favorite, is that FoxSheetstells us that Lee is 14-2 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LEE 5.1, OPPONENT 1.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:28 PM

Dodgers look to continue home dominance of the Nationals

Washington (62-46) at Los Angeles Dodgers (35-73), 10:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Los Angeles -240, Washington +200 Total: 7
The Dodgers will look to continue their dominance at home over the Nationals as these two teams begin a three-game series at Dodger Stadium tonight.
The Dodgers have won 10 of their last 11 against the Nationals at home. The Nationals have really struggled on the road this season, losing 31 of their last 41 games away from home and are 0-11-2 in their last 13 road series.

John Lannan (2-5, 5.63 ERA) will take on Clayton Kershaw (10-6, 2.94 ERA) in a battle of southpaws. Lannan has struggled this season, especially of late. In his last five starts he is 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA while allowing 46 hits in just 24.1 IP.

Kershaw leads the Dodgers with 10 wins this season and has been very good at Dodger Stadium. In his last eight home starts he is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA. In each of his three no-decisions over that span, he left with the lead only to see the bullpen blow his win chances.

Kershaw's performance at home combined with the Nationals horrific play of late on the road make the Dodgers a large favorite. Also after coming off a trio of rough series against division rivals (3-7 vs. SD and SF), FoxSheets show that the Dodgers should welcome a visit from a non-divisional team.

LA DODGERS are 27-9 (+14.8 Units) against the money line after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.8, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:29 PM

Alouettes look to avenge their lone 2010 loss

Saskatchewan (4-1) at Montreal (4-1), Friday, 7:05 p.m. EDT Line: Montreal -7, Total: 60
Two of the CFL's three 4-1 teams will battle in Montreal as the Alouettes host the Rough Riders. Saskatchewan handed the Als their only loss of the season on July 1 with an exciting 54-51 win, getting a little payback for their heart-breaking 28-27 loss in the 2009 Grey Cup.
Darian Durant played by far his best game of the season for the Rough Riders against Montreal, as he threw for five TD and 481 yards in the win. Since his dominance in that game, Durant has struggled, throwing just three scores against five INT.

Since losing its season opener, Montreal has reeled off four straight wins, outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 127-59. QB Anthony Calvillo’s 13th season in Montreal has been another successful one, with 10 TD against just 2 INT and a 69.9% completion rate. Like Durant, Calvillo also had a monster game in the opener at Saskatchewan, throwing for 368 yards and four TD.

The Rough Riders boast the league’s best running attack with 163 yards per game and an impressive 7.5 yards per rush. In their first matchup this season, Wes Cates (2nd in the CFL with 466 rushing yds) ran for 112 of the Rough Riders 179 yards on the ground. But Montreal has shored up its run defense since that game, allowing a total of 160 yards in its last three contests. The Als now lead the CFL in rushing defense, allowing just 86.0 yds per game on the ground.

Despite the offensive explosion in their last meeting, the under appears to be a smart play based on Saskatchewan averaging only 28.5 PPG in two road games this season and Montreal holding opponents to 12 PPG in their two home games.

Oddsmakers expect Montreal to win its fifth straight game, but this FoxSheets trend shows Saskatchewan could be a safer bet:

Play Against - Home favorites (MONTREAL) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:30 PM

Two offensively challenged teams to meet in Edmonton

Toronto (3-2) at Edmonton (1-4), Friday, 10:05 p.m. EDT Line: Edmonton -5, Total: 51
With a 3-2 record, Toronto already has matched its win total from last season. Edmonton is having a down season, starting out 1-4, but the Eskimos did win their last game, 28-25 over BC.
The Argonauts had won three straight before being blown out 41-10 in Montreal last week. Toronto is last in the CFL in offense (288.2 yards per game) and tied for last in touchdowns with just seven scores in five games. Edmonton hasn’t been much better, with only eight TDs in its five games and just 20.4 PPG (2nd-worst in CFL) this season. Nine of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER the total since 1996.

Toronto is 9-5 against the spread (and straight up) against Edmonton since 1996. Another reason to like the Argonauts with the points is that, according to FoxSheets, Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TORONTO) - off a loss against a division rival against opponent off a win over a division rival. (30-9 since 1996.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:30 PM

Arena Football Playoffs open Friday

The Arena Football League welcomes back its first postseason in two years on Friday night with two conference semifinal games, as both #1 seeds will be hosting #4’s. According to oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com, who list Jacksonville and Spokane as favorites for their respective games, both host #1’s are expected to advance to next week’s conference title games. Let’s look at both games, specifically from a betting perspective.

(491) ORLANDO at (492) JACKSONVILLE - 7:30 PM
* American Conference Semifinals
Bookmaker.com Line: Jacksonville by 5.5, Total: 106
Both of Friday night’s games match home teams making their first appearance in the Arena Football top league’s postseason against experienced clubs. Jacksonville became the first expansion team to win a division title in the AFL this season, also setting an expansion record with 12 wins. At the same time, Orlando has already been in seven Arena Bowl title games and has won two of them. However, this is here, and this is now, and in 2010, the Sharks were the better team.

Jacksonville is the favorite rightfully and brings a home mark of 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS into this contest. One of those wins came in easy fashion against this same Orlando team, 57-31 on April 16th. However, that was before the Predators really got going this season. In fact, Orlando turned around and put a whipping to the Sharks two months later at their former home, Amway Arena, 70-48. In both games, Jacksonville was a 4.5-point favorite.

Jacksonville comes in as the hotter team, having won its last five games while going 4-1 ATS. They have played playoff-like contests in each of the last three weeks too, having to sweep in order to clinch the American Conference’s top seed. Hopefully there is no letdown.

Orlando was 4-4 SU & ATS on the road this season but will be backed by a powerful trend in conference games:

ORLANDO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season. The average score was ORLANDO 58.0, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 1*)

If the Predators can keep up that pace and get back to playing the same football that saw them go 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS during one stretch this season, they can pull the upset here. The ******* Power Rating Line indicates that Jacksonville should only be favored by 2-points.

(493) ARIZONA at (494) SPOKANE 11:00 - PM
* National Conference Semifinals
Bookmaker.com Line: Spokane by 7, Total: 116
The second conference semifinal is scheduled for a late night kickoff of 11:00 PM ET, with the Spokane Shock playing host to the Arizona Rattlers. Like Jacksonville, Spokane has ZERO experience playing in the postseason of Arena Football’s top level, as they came over from AF2 for this season. The Rattlers meanwhile, are well versed in playoff football, owning two AFL titles, and two runner-up finishes in their history.

Spokane will be playing as about a touchdown favorite when this game kicks off. The Shock are the league’s top team in many statistical categories, none more important than scoring differential. They are beating their opponents by 9.0 PPG this season, and 10.9 PPG at home. They will be the host club for the playoff festivities as long as they keep winning, and that includes the Arena Bowl contest on August 20th. The Shock come off a 64-49 loss at Jacksonville, a game in which the Sharks needed and Shock didn’t. That defeat snapped a 10-game winning streak for Spokane.

Arizona has also played well down the stretch and is 8-3 SU & ATS since May 21st. The Rattlers have proven to be one of the teams least affected by playing on the road as well, owning a 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS mark in 2010. In their last trip to Spokane, they nearly pulled the upset as 7-point underdogs, falling 37-36. Arizona has to be encouraged by the fact that they held the Shock to a season-low 37 points.

These two teams are of course division rivals, and Arizona has a long history of success on the road in such games:

ARIZONA is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was ARIZONA 52.1, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 1*)

Spokane hopes for a third straight win over the Rattlers, one that would advance it to take on the Chicago-Milwaukee winner next weekend.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:43 PM

Friday Tips

The first Friday card of August involves a handful of matchups that incorporate several teams in legitimate playoff contention. The Giants and Braves continue their four-game set at Turner Field, while the Cardinals try to make up ground in the NL Central in South Florida. We'll start in the Bronx with the league's two biggest rivals renewing acquaintances in an AL East showdown.

Red Sox at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

These clubs meet for the first time since mid-May, as New York opens the weekend with a slim ½ game lead over Tampa Bay after the Rays fell to the Twins on Thursday afternoon. The Sox are still outsiders in the AL Wild Card race, sitting six games behind the Rays entering Friday's action.

With Alex Rodriguez's 600th homer now in the rear-view mirror, the Yankees can concentrate on another division title. New York sends out Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.61 ERA), who hasn't lost a start since June 30 against Seattle. Vazquez wasn't particularly sharp in his last outing, a no-decision in a 5-4 win at Tampa Bay. The righty allowed eight hits and four earned runs in 6.1 innings, only his third-non quality start in his last 10 outings. Vazquez has significantly improved since a shaky first five starts (23 IP, 25 ER), giving up 33 ER in 83 innings of work in his last 14 trips to the mound.

Clay Buchholz (11-5, 2.59 ERA) has delivered a pair of solid starts his last two times out against the Angels and Tigers. Buchholz grabbed a victory as a road underdog at Los Angeles, then lost out on a victory against Detroit as the bullpen blew a 3-0 lead. The Sox won in the bottom of the ninth, the fifth straight home victory for Boston with Buchholz on the mound. The young right-hander has not fared well in his career against the Bombers, going 0-4 in four starts versus New York, including a 14-3 home setback in May.

The Yankees are 5-3 against the Red Sox this season, with four of those victories coming at Fenway Park. The 'over' has been the play, cashing in seven instances, including five games with the winning team plating at least nine runs. The Red Sox are just 1-8 the previous nine meetings at Yankee Stadium, ending an eight-game skid in a 7-6 victory on May 18 in the last matchup.

Cardinals at Marlins - 7:05 PM EST

St. Louis and Cincinnati continue to see-saw atop the NL Central race, as the second-place team is not guaranteed the Wild Card spot. The Cards head down to South Florida for just the third meeting all season with the Marlins, who are quickly spiraling out of control following a home series loss to the Phillies.

Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright (15-6, 2.19 ERA) has allowed one earned run in seven of his last nine starts, coming off a 9-1 thumping of the lowly Pirates last Sunday. Wainwright's biggest problem has been pitching on the road, as the Cards' ace is 4-6 away from Busch Stadium, compared to an 11-0 mark at home. Wainwright has seen plenty of success against the Marlins, going 4-1 in his career, including a seven-inning effort in a 4-2 home win on May 20.

The Marlins send out Ricky Nolasco (12-7, 4.28 ERA), who has been Florida's hottest pitcher over the last five weeks. The Fish are 7-1 in his previous eight starts, with the lone loss coming to Stephen Strasburg and the Nats in a 4-0 shutout. Nolasco picked up a pair of wins over the top two teams in the NL on Florida's last road trip, beating the Giants and Padres as short 'dogs. The righty has struggled against the Redbirds in his career, compiling a 1-3 record, but only one of those starts have come at Sun Life Stadium.

Both meetings at Busch Stadium finished 'under' the total, as 10 of the previous 14 matchups have cashed the 'under.' St. Louis owns a 5-2 mark the last seven meetings in South Florida, including a 2-1 record in 2009.

Giants at Braves - 7:35 PM EST

San Francisco and Atlanta play the second of a four-game set at Turner Field, as both teams are in prime playoff positions. The Braves are still leading the NL East, but the Phillies are breathing down Atlanta's neck in the division. San Francisco, meanwhile, is atop the Wild Card race, while trying to overtake San Diego in the NL West.

Barry Zito (8-6, 3.38 ERA) ended a two-game skid with a masterful outing against the Dodgers, beating Los Angeles last Saturday. Zito has put together four straight quality starts, but the Giants are just 2-2 in this stretch thanks to six runs of support. The former Cy Young Award winner has been hit-or-miss on the road, as San Francisco is 5-5 in his 10 away outings this season. Zito is 2-0 in two starts against the Braves as a member of the Giants, limiting Atlanta to eight hits and one earned run in 14 innings of work.

The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson (8-8, 3.83 ERA), who is winless in four starts since the All-Star Break. Past a shaky outing against the Brewers, Hanson has given up four earned runs his last three starts, while Atlanta has plated just one run in his previous two outings. In his only career start against the Giants, Hanson shut down San Francisco in an 11-3 blowout last July, while striking out 11 in seven innings.

Atlanta owns a sterling 23-12 record in Game 2's of a series, but the Braves are just 1-4 the last five Game 2's at home. The Giants have been on fire on the highway, going 13-3 the previous 16 games away from the Bay.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-06-2010, 06:44 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Rangers at Athletics – The Rangers are 10-0 since May 01, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $1170. The Athletics are 0-8 since May 07, 2010 at home after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $857 when playing against.

Rays at Blue Jays – The Rays are 8-0 since June 06, 2010 as a favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800. The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 31, 2009 when Brett Cecil starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $960. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since May 20, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

Giants at Braves – The Giants are 5-0 since June 07, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $665. The Braves are 0-8 since May 15, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1175 when playing against.

Astros at Brewers – The Astros are 0-9 since August 14, 2009 when Wandy Rodriguez starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $935 when playing against. The Astros are 6-0 since June 25, 2010 on the road and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1010.

Reds at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-9 since May 28, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1055 when playing against.

Padres at Diamondbacks – The Padres are 0-5 since April 25, 2010 within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $505 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since July 03, 2010 at home vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $610 when playing against.

Nationals at Dodgers – The Nationals are 0-6 since May 15, 2010 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Dodgers are 0-5 since June 10, 2009 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a home 200+ favorite vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $1020 when playing against.

Twins at Indians – The Twins are 7-0 since July 17, 2010 after a win in which they left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $745. The Twins are 6-0 since April 15, 2010 when Francisco Liriano starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $600.

Royals at Mariners – The Mariners are 0-8 since May 06, 2010 as a 140+ dog after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Cardinals at Marlins – The Cardinals are 0-7 since October 08, 2009 when Adam Wainwright starts on the road after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs at home for a net profit of $835 when playing against. The Marlins are 4-0 since June 10, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits for a net profit of $580.

White Sox at Orioles – The White Sox are 9-0 since June 11, 2010 after a win and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $980. The Orioles are 0-7 since April 12, 2010 as a 140+ dog when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Mets at Phillies – The Mets are 8-0 since April 17, 2010 on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $830. The Phillies are 9-0 since May 05, 2010 at home after a one run win for a net profit of $910.

Rockies at Pirates – The Rockies are 6-0 since April 22, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $660. The Pirates are 5-0 since June 19, 2010 at home when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $585.

Angels at Tigers – The Tigers are 8-0 since September 14, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $820.

Red Sox at Yankees – The Red Sox are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 when Clay Buchholz starts on the road in the first game of a series for a net profit of $645. The Red Sox are 5-0 since May 23, 2010 on the road after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $600. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 21, 2010 when Javier Vazquez starts as a 140+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $600.

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