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**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2010, 12:10 AM

Wednesday Tips

The Wednesday baseball card has plenty of action throughout the day and night as five games take place under the sun. We'll take a look at several matchups inside the American League, including the Angels and Red Sox trying to clean up against last-place teams. Let's start in the Motor City with the Tigers looking to make up ground on the first-place team in the AL Central.

White Sox at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST

Chicago stumbled out of the gate, starting 9-14 after the first month. Ozzie Guillen's team has responded with a 50-31 mark since May 1 to take firm control of the AL Central, passing the Twins and Tigers in the process. The Sox continue their four-game set at Comerica Park, as a former Tiger makes his return to Detroit.

Edwin Jackson (6-10, 5.16 ERA) goes from the bottom-feeder Diamondbacks to a legit playoff contender at the trade deadline, as the White Sox needed to acquire another right-handed arm following the injury to Jake Peavy. Jackson has largely been a disappointment this season, but will be remembered for his 149-pitch effort in a no-hitter at Tampa Bay in late June. This will not be Jackson's first start at Comerica Park since getting dealt to Arizona last season, as the righty beat the Tigers in interleague play back in June. The D-Backs rode an 'over' streak in eight of Jackson's last nine starts before his trade.

Detroit sends out Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.28 ERA), who received a no-decision in his last start at Boston. The Tigers did manage to cash as $2.35 underdogs, holding off a late Boston rally in a 6-5 victory that went 'over' the total of 8 ½. Galarraga has struggled to find consistency since his near-perfect game against Cleveland, putting together quality starts in only three of his previous nine outings. Detroit is 3-1 in Galarraga's four career starts against Chicago, including a 7-2 victory as a short 'dog at U.S. Cellular Field on June 8.

The White Sox own a 4-1 mark against the Tigers this season, as Chicago pounded Detroit on Tuesday afternoon, 12-2. Detroit has compiled an 8-6 mark as a home underdog this season, but is just 1-4 the last five in this situation.

Twins at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay is back to its early-season form when the Rays busted out of the gate at 17-5. The Rays are riding a 9-2 run, while going 22-7 since the end of June to tie the Yankees for first place in the AL East. The Twins fell back to Earth after an eight-game winning streak with Monday's 4-2 loss to the Rays. Things don't get easier for Minnesota, as it faces the American League's leader in wins.

David Price (14-5, 2.90 ERA) picked up consecutive victories for the first time since June 15 as the Rays beat the Tigers, 4-2 in his last outing. The Rays' southpaw has put together quality starts in eight of his previous 10 trips to the mound, while all nine starts at Tropicana Field have been quality ones. Price was on the losing end of a 2-1 setback at Minnesota last month, despite scattering four hits and two earned runs in eight innings of work. The former top pick struck out 11 in just 5.2 innings of a 5-2 home win over the Twins last May.

Last season's ace for the Twins hasn't lived up to expectations, as Scott Baker (9-9, 5.00 ERA) goes for his 10th win of the season. Many of the right-hander's problems have come on the highway, with Minnesota losing seven of his 10 away starts. Baker is fresh off back-to-back wins over the Orioles and Mariners, a nice change from the 11 earned runs allowed in losses to the Indians and Blue Jays in his two previous starts. However, Baker was on the winning side of that 2-1 home triumph over Price and the Rays on July 2, striking out eight in seven solid innings.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 this season against Minnesota, while the last five meetings at home have finished 'under' the total. Each club is still dealing with key injuries, as Joe Mauer is limited to the DH role with right shoulder issues, while both Ben Zobrist (back) and Carlos Pena (ankle) are dealing with other ailments for the Rays.

Indians at Red Sox - 7:10 PM EST

The Indians have quietly been on fire, even though no one is going to celebrate a three-game winning streak. Cleveland took the final two games at Toronto, the second road series victory since the All-Star Break after knocking off Minnesota at Target Field. The Tribe has won 11 of 18 games since the break, as they continue their series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.

Jon Lester (11-6, 3.05 ERA) has burned bettors over his last three starts, losing 5.9 units in defeats to the Tigers, Mariners, and Rangers. The Sox southpaw has struck out 26 in this stretch, but allowed eight earned runs in the previous two outings. Lester has been the ace of this Boston rotation, as he owns a 6-3 mark at Fenway, despite one home win since mid-June. The Sox are 6-1 in his seven career starts against the Indians, with the only loss coming at Progressive Field on June 10 in an 8-7 defeat, as Boston squandered a 5-0 lead.

The Indians counter with former Red Sox prospect Justin Masterson (3-10, 5.55 ERA), who is coming off his worst start of the season. Masterson allowed 13 hits and eight earned runs of an 8-1 drubbing at Toronto, his sixth road defeat of 2010. The Indians have been automatic 'fade' material when Masterson takes the ball on the highway, going 3-9 while getting outscored by three runs/game. Masterson did get revenge on his former team by tossing a complete game gem on June 9, beating the Red Sox, 11-0 as a $1.60 home 'dog.

Despite pulling off the win on Monday, the Indians are 2-8 the last 10 games at Fenway Park dating back to 2008. Cleveland's offense has woken up against Boston over the last three meetings, averaging over eight runs/game.

**BettorsChat** · 08-04-2010, 12:17 PM

gl Stardust

**shoeman530** · 08-04-2010, 03:34 PM

good luck sdb

**bryce** · 08-04-2010, 03:39 PM

Good luck buddy... Get thevlate one's!

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2010, 04:38 PM

Wednesday's Evening Games:

LA Angels - 7:05 PM ET Baltimore +129 500
Baltimore - Under 9 500

Chi. White Sox - 7:05 PM ET Chi. White Sox +101 500 *****
Detroit - Over 9 500

Cleveland - 7:10 PM ET Cleveland +253 500 *****
Boston - Under 8.5 500

Minnesota - 7:10 PM ET Tampa Bay -180 500
Tampa Bay - Under 8 500

NY Mets - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -148 500
Atlanta - Under 8.5 500

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Florida -124 500
Florida - Under 8.5 500

Houston - 8:15 PM ET Houston +219 500 *****
St. Louis - Over 7 500 *****

Washington - 9:40 PM ET Washington +132 500 *****
Arizona - Under 9.5 500

Texas - 10:10 PM ET Texas -145 500
Seattle - Under 7.5 500

San Diego - 10:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -140 500
LA Dodgers - Under 7 500 *****

----------------------------------------------------------

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
08/03/10 5-4-1 55.56% +300 Detail
08/01/10 5-5-0 50.00% -250 Detail
Totals 10-9-1 52.63% +50

Wednesday, August 4Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 10:30 PM ET Chicago -2.5 500
Los Angeles - Over 148 500

Good Luck !

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2010, 05:06 PM

Rays look to make it three straight over the Twins

Minnesota (59-48) at Tampa Bay (67-39), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line:Tampa Bay -180, Total: 8
The Rays, winners of 10 of their last 11, have moved into sole possession of first place in the ultra-competitive AL East. The hosts are favored in this third game of a four-game set with Minnesota. The Twins rode into Tampa on a season-high eight-game winning streak before dropping two straight to the red-hot Rays. Minnesota had been feasting on the bottom dwellers of the AL: Baltimore, Kansas City and Seattle.
Twins starter Scott Baker (9-9, 5.00 ERA) has won his last two starts and got the better of Rays starter David Price (14-5, 2.90 ERA) on July 2 when he allowed just one run on six hits while striking out eight Rays over seven innings in a 2-1 victory in Minnesota. However, AL win leader Price is 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA at home this season, posting quality starts in all nine games at the Trop.

FoxSheets show another thing going the Rays way: Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (106-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +51.8 units. Rating = 3*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2010, 05:07 PM

Record pace of MLB Totals less than 7 runs

In handicapping the MLB action last week, it occurred to me…there are a lot more games with posted totals of less than 7 runs nowadays than I’ve ever picked up on before. If you’ve been active this baseball season, you know that scoring is down overall, but is the frequency of the real low totaled games in proportion, or an overreaction by oddsmakers? Either way, are there any specific trends or betting systems that we can take advantage of when analyzing these games? Let’s take a look.

To start off with, I’m pleased to say that my hunch was correct…AND HOW! So far this season, in games played through Monday, August 2nd, there have been 65 such games with totals posted at 6 or 6.5. Over the course of the prior five seasons combined, there were only 57 games meeting that low total criteria. I would categorize this as an unusual phenomena.

So why are the totals so low? To me, the answer is several-fold. For one,as mentioned before, scoring and home run hitting are down all across baseball. Also, right now, there are 11 different regular starting pitchers that boast a WHIP of 1.100 or less. Last season there were only seven, and in 2008, there were just five. In other words, there are a lot more “aces” around this season to slow opposing lineups. Thirdly, the Padres pitching staff has been dominant in itself, and this year’s list of 65 games with totals of 7 or less includes 25 games at Petco park, home of the Padres. Finally, I believe bettors have forced the hand of oddsmakers to drop their totals more often than they have wanted to. In fact, in 22 of the 65 games, the posted opening total was 7 runs or higher, and dropped below that threshold only after bettors forced oddsmakers to make a bold move downward.

So, now that we have an understanding of how many games are meeting our low total criteria, is there anything specific we can lean on to gain an advantage against the oddsmakers when it comes to betting these totals? Take a look at some of these trends/systems:

Of the 57 games between 2005-2009 with closing totals of 6 or 6.5, 29 went UNDER and 28 went OVER.

Of the 65 games this season with totals of less than 7 runs, 36 have gone OVER the total, while 27 have gone UNDER, with two pushes. That means the OVER has won at a rate of 57% on hese games in 2010.

The average score of these low totaled games in 2010 has been HOME TEAM 4.1, ROAD TEAM 3.4, with the 7.5 combined runs surpassing the average posted number by more than one run per game.

Interleague play was a boon for bettors playing the OVER, as that side of these low totaled games converted on 10 of 13 opportunities, for 77%.

Of the 51 remaining games qualifying this season that were not Interleague, only six were American League games. The results on those were split, three OVER’s, three UNDER’s. The N.L. games were 23 OVER’s, 21 UNDER’s, one push.

Of the 65 games in 2010 with closing totals of less than 7 runs, 15 were day games and the results were six OVER’s, seven UNDER’s, two pushes. Thus, on night games, the OVER’s were much more prevalent, with a record of 30-20, for 60%.

Interestingly, in the five seasons prior to 2010, not one of our low totaled games have come during the playoffs, when pitching is supposedly at its best.

In terms of ballparks, here are the total records in 2010, noted Over-Under-Push (Over %)

ANGEL STADIUM OF ANAHEIM (Angels): 0-1-0 (0%)
AT&T PARK (Giants): 3-6-0 (33%)
BUSCH STADIUM (Cardinals): 1-0-0 (100%)
CITI FIELD (NY Mets): 1-1-0 (50%)
CITIZENS BANK PARK (Phillies): 0-1-0 (0%)
DODGER STADIUM (Dodgers): 4-2-0 (67%)
MINUTE MAID PARK (Astros): 2-2-0 (50%)
NATIONALS PARK (Nationals): 2-0-0 (100%)
PETCO PARK (Padres): 16-7-2 (70%)
SAFECO FIELD (Mariners): 4-3-0 (57%)
SUN LIFE STADIUM (Marlins): 0-1-0 (0%)
TROPICANA FIELD (Rays): 0-1-0 (0%)
TURNER FIELD (Braves): 0-2-0 (0%)
U.S. CELLULAR FIELD (White Sox): 1-0-0 (100%)
WRIGLEY FIELD (Cubs): 2-0-0 (100%)

Of course, the most interesting trend on that list finds 70% of games at Petco Park with totals of less than 7 runs going OVER. It seems you can’t discount the fact that San Diego is still a first place team and capable of scoring runs itself. In fact, in those 25 games, the Padres averaged 4.9 runs per game themselves. Furthermore, in the games the Padres played on the road with totals of 6 or 6.5, they are 2-1 OVER. One of the things to watch for moving forward is whether or not the frequency of San Diego games meeting our low total criteria declines, since the additions of Ryan Ludwick & Miguel Tejada to the Padres’ lineup should result in increased run production.

The bottom line of all the analysis is this: Don’t judge a book by its cover when it comes to low totaled games. The pitching may look dominant, or the ball park imposing on the hitters, but seven runs is not a heck of a lot to generate in a baseball game. In fact, when you consider that both teams just have to produce three runs each to force these games over (since their can’t be a 3-3 tie), the chances for OVER’s are even greater. Like anything else, oddsmakers are counting on bettors to side with the more common information, and in most cases, all signs are pointing to low scoring games. Naturally, that’s when the opposite occurs, and bookmakers rake in the profits.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-04-2010, 05:10 PM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

Mets at Braves – The Mets are 0-10 since June 26, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1000 when playing against. The Braves are 7-0 since May 08, 2010 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $776. The Braves are 9-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $985.

Astros at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 7-0 since April 21, 2010 when Chris Carpenter starts as a favorite after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $700. The Cardinals are 6-0 since August 22, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $600.

Brewers at Cubs – The Brewers are 0-5 since April 26, 2009 when Manny Parra starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $585 when playing against. The Cubs are 6-0 since July 02, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts after losing as an away dog in his last start for a net profit of $660.

Nationals at Diamondbacks – The Nationals are 0-10 since May 16, 2010 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1035 when playing against. The Nationals are 0-6 since August 01, 2009 when Craig Stammen starts on the road after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $605 when playing against.

Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 9-0 since July 24, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base for a net profit of $1120.

Rangers at Mariners – The Rangers are 6-0 since April 22, 2010 when C.J. Wilson starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $720. The Mariners are 0-8 since May 18, 2009 as a dog when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-8 since July 30, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a one run win for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-7 since April 24, 2010 when Doug Fister starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $745 when playing against.

Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 5-0 since May 28, 2010 when Kyle Kendrick starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $550.

Angels at Orioles – The Angels are 0-8 since May 20, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts as a 140+ favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1160 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since April 13, 2010 when Brian Matusz starts at home after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $730 when playing against.

Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since July 08, 2010 as a 140+ dog vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-7 since June 08, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts as a 140+ dog for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Twins at Rays – The Twins are 7-0 since July 12, 2009 when Scott Baker starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $705. The Rays are 7-0 since May 07, 2010 when David Price starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $700.

Indians at Red Sox – The Indians are 0-8 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Red Sox are 8-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800.

Giants at Rockies – The Rockies are 10-0 since May 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has won at least their last two games for a net profit of $1000. The Rockies are 7-0 since July 22, 2009 when Ubaldo Jimenez starts at home when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $700.

White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 7-0 since April 14, 2010 on the road after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings for a net profit of $870.

Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 21, 2009 as a 170+ dog and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Yankees are 8-0 since August 02, 2009 after a 5+ run loss and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $805. The Yankees are 6-0 since May 15, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts at home after his team lost the last time he started for a net profit of $600.

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