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**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 05:45 PM

Latos faces Dodgers in Lilly's L.A. debut

San Diego Padres (62-42) at Los Angeles Dodgers (54-52), 10:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Los Angeles -115, Total: 6.5
Ted Lilly (3-8, 3.69 ERA) will be making his first appearance for the Dodgers since being traded by the Cubs. Mat Latos (11-4, 2.45 ERA) takes the hill for San Diego.
Oddsmakers don’t expect the Padres to score in double figures again, like they did in Monday’s 10-5 win, setting the over/under at a paltry 6.5. The Dodgers don’t figure to light up the scoreboard against Latos, who has won six straight decisions.

Check out this Fox Sheets trend: Where the money line is +125 to -125, the cold-hitting team (Dodgers) – batting .225 or worse over their last five home games – against a starting pitcher (Mat Latos) who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings has won 63.2% of the time over the last five seasons.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 05:46 PM

Braves looking to extend Mets' road woes

New York Mets (53-53) at Atlanta (60-45), 7:10 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Atlanta -140, Total: 8
The Mets and Braves continue their three-game series at Turner Field tonight. The Mets are just 5-13 since the All-Star break and have lost 21 of their last 31 overall. After getting swept at Citi Field in April, the Braves have won four of the last six games vs. the Mets this season, and are a major-league best 35-13 at home.With a loss today the Mets will continue their streak of not winning a road series this season vs. an NL opponent. Going back to last season, the Mets have only won one road series vs. an NL opponent since June of 2009.
R.A. Dickey (7-4, 2.32 ERA) will go against Derek Lowe (10-9, 4.58 ERA) tonight. Dickey has perhaps been the Mets’ most consistent starter since the AS break as he has pitched to a 1.29 ERA in his last four starts, and enters this game with a streak of 21 consecutive scoreless innings pitched.

Lowe has pitched poorly in his last 6 starts going 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA. He is 0-2 vs. the Mets this season.

The fact that the Braves are favored by as much as they are despite Lowe's recent struggles is an indication of just how woeful the Mets have been on the road. Also factor in the following Fox Sheets nugget:

Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings are 89-50 over the last 5 seasons. 64.0% (38.1 units).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 05:47 PM

Reds look to stay hot against Pirates

Cincinnati Reds (60-47) at Pittsburgh (36-69), 7:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Cincinnati -130, Total: 8
The Reds look to improve upon their impressive 11-6 record since the All-Star break when they travel to Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates have been the opposite, as they are 6-11 over the same span and have lost 18 of their last 25.
The Reds have played very well at Pittsburgh dating back to last season, winning four straight and eight of the last 11 in the Steel City. The Pirates have really struggled this season against teams with winning records, posting a 12-34 mark.

Mike Leake (7-2, 3.57) gets the start for the Reds against Paul Maholm (9-12, 4.67 ERA). Since going 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his first 11 starts, Leake is just 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA over his last eight starts. Maholm has also been roughed up of late, posting a 6.18 ERA in his last 7 starts (2-4 over that span).

The Pirates are a bad offensive team though (last in NL in BA) and that makes the Reds a -130 favorite.

Also consider this from Fox Sheets:All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH)bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 161-61 over the last 5 seasons. 72.5% (57.4 units).

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 05:48 PM

White Sox and Tigers begin AL Central showdown

Chicago White Sox (59-45) at Detroit (52-52), Game 1, 1:05 p.m. EDT Sports.com Line: Detroit -160, Total: 8.5
Two clubs headed in opposite directions begin a four-game set in Detroit with a day-night doubleheader. The visiting White Sox are favored in the opener, having won six of their last seven, while the Tigers have dropped seven of eight and are just 4-15 in their last 19 games to fall to .500 for the season. However, at 35-17, the Tigers boast the best home record in the American League as they return from a seven-game road trip in which they faced AL contenders Boston and Tampa Bay.
White Sox starter Mark Buehrle (9-8, 4.15 ERA) is 6-2 with a no-decision in his last nine starts. Rick Porcello (4-9, 5.50 ERA) takes the mound for the Tigers having dropped five straight decisions. He is also 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA in two starts vs. the ChiSox in 2010. Despite Detroit’s home field edge, the starting pitching matchup tilts considerably in Chicago’s favor. Also factor in the following Fox Sheets gem:

CHI WHITE SOX are 21-5 (+18.5 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.7, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 4*)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 06:16 PM

Tuesday Tips

The Tuesday baseball card has plenty of mismatches, but there also key battles within each league's playoff race. Four series involve teams with a 15-game difference in victories, including the Reds battling the Pirates and the Rangers taking on the Mariners. The NL West has two key matchups, as the Rockies and Giants meet up at Coors Field, while the Dodgers try heat up their bats against the Padres. We'll start inside the NL East with two clubs looking to climb the ladder the Wild Card standings.

Phillies at Marlins - 7:10 PM EST

Florida returns home off a 4-3 West Coast swing that included a pair of one-run losses. The Marlins are still hanging around the NL Wild Card race, along with the Phillies, who have won nine of 11. The man that tossed one of the league's two perfect games this season will try to duplicate that feat when he takes the mound again at Sun Life Stadium.

The last time Roy Halladay (12-8, 2.21 ERA) toed the rubber in South Florida, he retired all 27 batters in a 1-0 victory on May 29. Halladay has dominated the Marlins in three starts this season, allowing 14 hits and three earned runs in 25 innings (2-1). The former Cy Young Award winner bounced back following a shaky start at Chicago by limiting the Rockies and Diamondbacks to just one run in two easy wins. Since the perfect game, the Phillies are 0-3 in Halladay's last three starts on the highway.

The Marlins send out southpaw Sean West (NR), who is making 2010 debut after 11 starts at Triple-A New Orleans. West made 20 starts with the Fish last season, compiling an 8-6 mark with an ERA of 4.79. The Marlins won seven of West's 10 home outings last season, including a 7-1 mark the final eight contests.

Philadelphia and Florida have split eight meetings this season with the road team taking five matchups. The 'under' has been the play between these clubs, cashing six times, including all three at Sun Life Stadium.

Braves at Mets - 7:10 PM EST

Atlanta has a great opportunity to open up the gap in the NL East as it continues a three-game series against New York. The Braves own a three-game edge over the Phillies and a seven-game lead over the Mets in the division race entering Tuesday's action. Bobby Cox's team has the fewest home losses of any team in baseball with 13, but the Braves are just 5-4 the last nine games at Turner Field following Monday's win over the Mets.

Derek Lowe (10-9, 4.58 ERA) has clearly been more effective at home than on the road, as the Braves are 7-3 in his 10 home starts, compared to a 4-8 mark away from Turner. One of Lowe's biggest issues has been his lack of going deep into starts, failing to go past the sixth inning in four of his last five outings. Atlanta is 1-6 his previous seven starts, but five of those outings came on the highway. The Braves are 0-2 in Lowe's two starts against the Mets this season, with Atlanta scoring two runs in those games.

The Mets counter with R.A. Dickey (7-4, 2.32 ERA), who snapped a six-start winless streak with a flawless effort in a 4-0 victory over the Cardinals. The knuckleballer scattered four hits in 8.1 scoreless innings of work, Dickey's fifth straight outing that has finished 'under' the total. The last time Dickey faced the Braves, he allowed nine hits and 6.2 innings, but back-to-back homers by Melky Cabrera and Omar Infante broke a 2-2 tie, resulting in a 4-2 setback.

New York is 5-4 this season against Atlanta, while the 'under' has cashed in all nine meetings. The Braves are 6-2 the last eight home meetings with the Mets dating back to last July, while Atlanta owns a 23-11 record in Game 2's of a series this season.

Twins at Rays - 7:10 PM EST

Minnesota is playing its baseball of the season, even though the Twins have cleaned up against some of the American League's bottom-feeders with wins in 10 of the last 12 games. The Rays, meanwhile, are riding a 6-1 run against the Yankees and Tigers at home. Tampa Bay's pitching has lifted them during this stretch, holding opponents to four runs or less in 11 of the past 12 games after Monday's 4-2 victory over Minnesota.

Jeff Niemann (9-3, 3.08 ERA) has hit a bump in the road despite Tampa Bay's 3-1 mark his last four starts. Niemann allowed eight hits and four earned runs in six innings of a 7-4 home win over the Tigers, his fourth straight non-quality outing. Despite his recent struggles, Tampa Bay is a sterling 16-5 in his 21 starts, including a 7-4 mark at Tropicana Field. Niemann has fared well against the Twins in his short career, beating Minnesota twice on the road, as the Rays pulled off a 5-4 win at Target Field on July 1.

Southpaw Brian Duensing (4-1, 1.83 ERA) picked up his first win as a starter with a 6-4 victory at Kansas City. Duensing hasn't faced the stiffest of competition with starts against the Orioles and Royals, as the Minnesota left-hander sees Tampa Bay for the first time in his career as a starter. When these teams met at Target Field in early July, Duensing tossed 1.2 innings of scoreless baseball in relief, scattering two hits in three appearances.

Tampa Bay grabbed three of four at Minnesota last month, while the Rays are 5-2 the last seven meetings at Tropicana Field. Despite Minnesota's problems on the road this season, the Twins have won seven of their last nine on the highway.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-03-2010, 06:17 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Royals at Athletics – The Royals are 7-0 since August 11, 2009 when Kyle Davies starts on the road after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $1065. The Athletics are 4-0 since July 28, 2009 when Vin Mazzaro starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start for a net profit of $554.

Mets at Braves – The Blue Jays are 0-6 since September 19, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $655 when playing against. The Braves are 9-0 since September 15, 2009 as a home favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $900. The Braves are 0-7 since May 15, 2010 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1050 when playing against.

Astros at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 6-0 since July 04, 2010 as a favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $600. The Cardinals are 0-4 since May 08, 2010 when Jaime Garcia starts as a 140+ favorite after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $630 when playing against.

Nationals at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since June 08, 2010 when they lost by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Padres at Dodgers – The Padres are 6-0 since June 15, 2010 when Mat Latos starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $625

Rangers at Mariners – The Rangers are 0-4 since July 02, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $890 when playing against. The Mariners are 0-6 since June 09, 2009 when Jason Vargas starts as a dog in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600 when playing against.

Phillies at Marlins – The Phillies are 7-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts after giving up no walks for a net profit of $700. The Marlins are 5-0 since June 12, 2009 as a 170+ dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $935.

Angels at Orioles – The Orioles are 0-7 since April 25, 2009 after a loss in which they did not walk the opponent for a net profit of $785 when playing against. The Orioles are 6-0 since April 26, 2009 when they are off two one-run losses for a net profit of $840.

Reds at Pirates – The Pirates are 0-9 since April 21, 2010 as a dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 6-0 since May 25, 2009 when Paul Maholm starts as a dog when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $925.

Twins at Rays – The Rays are 8-0 since July 05, 2010 at home when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $800.

Indians at Red Sox – The Red Sox are 8-0 since May 09, 2010 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800. The Red Sox are 8-0 since April 18, 2009 when Josh Beckett starts as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $800.

Giants at Rockies – The Giants are 0-8 since May 04, 2009 on the road when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $825 when playing against. The Rockies are 8-0 since July 30, 2009 as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $800.

White Sox at Tigers – The White Sox are 10-0 since July 08, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $1000. The White Sox are 9-0 since May 22, 2010 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900. The Tigers are 0-5 since September 08, 2009 when Rick Porcello starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $575 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Yankees – The Blue Jays are 0-8 since May 25, 2010 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 0-6 since September 19, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts on the road after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $655 when playing against. The Yankees are 8-0 since July 01, 2010 as a 140+ favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $800.

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The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB - WNBA !

The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets MLB - WNBA !

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