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**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 10:20 AM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/30-8/1

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON

PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

ATLANTA at CINCINNATI

ATLANTA is 19-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at NY METS

NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 2.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)

MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON

MILWAUKEE is 30-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS

PITTSBURGH is 2-14 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO

COLORADO is 126-69 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 6.9, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO is 23-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO

LA DODGERS are 15-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO

TORONTO is 14-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at BOSTON

DETROIT is 16-33 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 14-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY

KANSAS CITY is 24-9 OVER (+14.7 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 6.0, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CHI WHITE SOX

CHI WHITE SOX are 17-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA

SEATTLE is 4-21 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.5, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 77-61 (+17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

**Kaptain** · 07-31-2010, 10:43 AM

go get em Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 11:00 AM

Good Luck to you also Kapt.....slap the man.........

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 11:19 AM

At the Gate - Saturday

While I am anticipating Sunday’s $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1) (and handicapping the other 13 races on the card), Saturday’s Saratoga card is worth a good look.

There is a pair of graded stakes that are good betting races, starting with the $500,000 Diana (G1), a nine furlong turf event for fillies and mares.

I seem to like to try to beat Forever Together throughout her career, but I’ll be on the bandwagon today, as the mare looks for her third straight win in the Diana.

She looks primed for a good effort off a good runner up finish in the Just a Game (G1) at Belmont Park. She just needs to see some pace in front of her to get the job done.

However, I don’t really want to take much less than her 2/1 morning line.

While most of the top three year olds in training are going in tomorrow’s Haskell., the $500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) drew a good field including Belmont Stakes (G1) runner up Fly Down and Pegasus (G3) winner Afleet Express.

The feature at Monmouth Park is the $100,000 Mongo Queen, with the Todd Pletcher trained Rose Catherine the one to beat.

It is time to get started on Sunday’s Monmouth Park card. In addition to the Haskell, there are six other stakes races on the marathon card.

To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

To purchase my full card report for Monmouth Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is the opening race from Monmouth Park to get our day off to a good start:

MTH Race 1 Clm $5,000 (12:50 ET)

#4 Golden Sunset 5/2

#2 Indy's Forum 6/1

#8 Red Hot Baby 9/2

#9 Aunt Mabel 6/1

Analysis: #4 Golden Sunset invades from Fort Erie where the mare won a $25K stake. The barn took her for $8K and has won three of four starts with the mare. It is tough to call this a negative drop since she is running for a $30K purse here.

#2 Indy's Forum looks back on track after a couple of sub par efforts two and three back. Last out in her first go for the Cibelli barn she was a game second, beaten a nose for this tag. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and has landed in the exacta in 6 of 10 starts this year. She fits here and the 6/1 ML looks more than fair.

Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 2,4 / 2,4,8,9

TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,8,9 / 2,4,8,9,10

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Jim Dandy G2 (5:48 ET)

#5 A Little Warm

#2 Afleet Express

#9 Fly Down

#4 Aikenite

Analysis: #5 A Little Warm came back off a three month break with a smart looking win against second level allowance company at Delaware Park earning a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. The colt has done little wrong in his career, landing in the exacta in seven of his eight starts. The colt figures to be right with the pace, and could have things rather easy if Miner’s Reserve scratches (the Zito runner is entered in the Curlin on Sunday). He was a good second two back in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his lone start at nine furlongs, and note he finished a neck in front of Drosselmeyer in that effort. Drosselmeyer came back to finish second in the Dwyer (G2) and then won the Belmont Stakes (G1).

#2 Afleet Express tried two turns for the first time last out in his stakes debut in the Pegasus (G3) and did not disappoint, drawing clear late to win by 1 ¾ lengths in a good looking effort. Two back he came off a three month layoff and trounced allowance company (non winners of two) by 7 ¾ lengths in very fast time. This colt is moving forward fast and has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs. He is by Afleet Alex out of a Distant View mare that also produced stakes winner Reporting for Duty ($470K).

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 2,5 / 2,4,5,9

TRI: 2,5 / 2,4,5,9 / 1,2,4,5,9

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 The Mongo Queen (5:12 ET)

#9 Rose Catherine 2/1

#5 Trippi's Sailor 12/1

#3 Greeley's Rocket 3/1

#4 Go for Jan 5/1

Analysis: #9 Rose Catherine was a sharp winner last out in her first trip over the grass here beating Alw-2 company. Three runners she beat that day have come back to win in their next starts. She is a stakes winner, taking the Sweet Life at Santa Anita back in January. She looks as if she is sitting on a top effort here in this spot.

#5 Trippi's Sailor cuts back to a sprint after a fifth place finish going long in the Noble Robyn at Calder. That race produced three next out winners including the runner up Trip for A.J., who won the Nancy's Glitter on July 24. This gal won her first three starts on turf, all at five furlongs. We'll toss her ion the mix here at a decent price.

Wagering

WIN: #9 to win at 9/5 or better.

EX: 5,9 / 3,4,5,9

TRI: 5,9 / 3,4,5,9 / 3,4,5,8,9

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Monmouth Park

R3: #6 New York Citi 8/1

R4: #2 Nondo 8/1

R5: #1 Bai Bai Dubai 8/1

R6: #10 Harlan Rush 12/1

R8: #4 Performing 8/1

R9: #2 Confidence Crisis / #2x Endofconversation 10/1

R10: #5 Trippi’s Sailor 12/1

R12: #5 Five Star General 8/1

Good luck today!

**bryce** · 07-31-2010, 12:24 PM

Good luck Stardust!

**jt4545** · 07-31-2010, 12:40 PM

Thanks and good luck

**Udog** · 07-31-2010, 12:43 PM

I was thinking the Rangers might be a fair 1u play tonight just on starting pitching. However, the above stat on the Halos makes me think again. I see you didn't pick that one so I think I'll stay away, too. Thanks, Bum! Good luck today!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 02:02 PM

UDOG:

The line on the Rangers/Angels game was up at the time ....But it is now...Here is what i went with:

Texas - 9:05 PM ET Texas +137 500 *****
LA Angels - Under 9 500 *****

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 02:04 PM

Saturday wraps up Arena Regular Season

Saturday’s four games on the Arena Football betting board will wrap up the regular season. The playoffs are on deck, and while nothing that happens Saturday will really change anything as far as the postseason picture is concerned, there’s still four pointspreads and four totals to take advantage of. Let’s look at the lines being offered by Bookmaker.com to see if we can’t pick them apart.

(357) MILWAUKEE at (358) CLEVELAND - 7:00 PM
Bookmaker.com Line: Cleveland by 2

Let’s be honest, the only reason Cleveland is favored in this game is because it means nothing to Milwaukee. Win or lose, the Iron will be the National Conference’s #2 seed next weekend and playing at home. That is certainly a good thing, because their road performance this season has left something to be desired. However, things may be changing in that regard, as Milwaukee has won back-to-back road games as part of a three game straight up and ATS winning streak. In last week’s victory at Iowa, Milwaukee gained a season high 425 yards of offense.

The Iron are the league’s highest scoring team at 65.9 PPG, but there is no indication as of presstime whether or not the Milwaukee coaching staff would push the issue in this contest with quarterback Chris Griessen, WR Damian Harrell, or any other key players. Even so, Cleveland certainly has the ability to put up the points to compete with the Iron, as the Gladiators have topped the 70-point mark five times this season and put up 60.6 PPG at home. Quarterback John Dutton leads the attack.

The Iron scored a season high 82-points in the first meeting between these teams in Milwaukee, wininng by 28 points as 6.5-point favorites.

The top system for the contest backs the visitors:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - good passing team - averaging 280 or more passing yards/game, after game with a 73% or better completion pct. (20 att min). (31-9 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Milwaukee’s motivation will be the deciding factor.

(359) ORLANDO at (360) TAMPA BAY - 7:30 PM
Bookmaker.com Line: OFF

Oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com are leaving this game off the board until the results of the Jacksonville-Spokane game from Friday night get finalized. It’s simple, if Jacksonville wins, Tampa Bay has nothing to play for in this one and will settle in as the #3 seed in the American Conference with a game in Tulsa next weekend. If Jacksonville should lose, the Storm can ascend to the top of the conference playoffs with a win. In other words, any line made prematurely could have left the book hung out to dry.

Regardless of the stakes for each team (Orlando is the #4 seed in American Conference win or lose), this is still the biggest rivalry in the Arena Football League. I’ve heard it called the War on I-4 among other nicknames. The teams have met at least twice and up to four times a season since 1991, and both have consistently been at the top of the league standings.

The overall record in both regular and postseason is equal, with the teams splitting 22 games each. The sides have met five times in the AFL playoffs, with Orlando holding a 4–2 lead, and twice in the ArenaBowl, with each team winning once.

The games between the teams are notable for featuring some of the highest attendances in AFL history. The ArenaBowl IX title match of September 1, 1995 drew an Arena Bowl record crowd of 25,087 to Thunderdome to see the Storm defeat the Preds' by 48–35.

In the only meeting this season, Tampa Bay won 62-50 as 2-point road favorites in the final regular-season Amway Arena game, as the arena is set to be demolished shortly after the end of the AFL season. However, the Predators gained 383 yards of offense that day, their second highest total of the season.

Keep a close eye on the line when it comes out, as due to the competitive nature of the rivalry, there hasn’t been a double-digit pointspread in this series since ’99, when Orlando won in Tampa Bay 41-19 as a 15-point dog.

(361) DALLAS at (362) BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT - 8:05 PM & (363) UTAH at (364) ALABAMA - 8:30 PM
Bookmaker.com Lines: Dallas by 6, Alabama by 12.5

I’ve decided to cover these final two games in one piece because they share a couple of common threads. First, none of the teams has any playoff games to concern themselves with next week. Second, rumors popping up this week are hinting that both home teams in these games may be playing their final contests, with both expected to move back to original AFL cities next year.

The question then becomes, do these home teams show up for these last day contests? Bettors seem to be suspecting the opposite, as the lines have moved starkly away from them since opening. Take a look…

Dallas was a 3.5-point road favorite at opener, despite having won just two games all season long. The Vigilantes are even coming off a 10-point loss at home to the league’s worst team, Utah. Bossier-Shreveport meanwhile, has plummeted with six straight losses, both SU & ATS. However, the Battle Wings did win the earlier season meeting between these teams, 70-69 in Dallas in June. They have also proven competitive at home, going 4-3 ATS.

Where Bossier-Shreveport has floundered pretty much all season long, Alabama has only fallen flat of late. In fact, prior to the current 4-game losing skid, Alabama was 6-5 and in the thick of the playoff hunt. Instead the Vipers have gone south, scoring just 39.5 PPG during the skid. Utah on the other hand, rides the wave of momentum that comes along with winning a game and snapping a 10-game losing streak. The 51-41 victory in Dallas marked the Blaze’s best defensive effort of the season.

Both of these teams have died by the turnover of late. Alabama has given the ball up 26 times in the last eight outings, while Utah has turned it over 36 times in its L11 games. In not a single game during that stretch has Utah not had multiple turnovers. That said, it might not be the team that turns it over the least that wins. In the last meeting, Alabama won 63-54 in Utah despite being on the short end of a 3-1 turnover differential. The Vipers failed to cover the 11-points though.

If all’s even on the turnover front this time around, Alabama should turn Utah’s season even uglier at its conclusion. Plus, there is this key revenge trend from FoxSheets:

UTAH is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 63 or more points since 1996. The average score was UTAH 47.2, OPPONENT 63.2 - (Rating = 2*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-31-2010, 02:09 PM

Good Options for Bad Teams

These guys don’t always get the publicity they deserve because they all play for cellar dwellers. Whether it’s because of spotty defense or non-existent offense; these pitchers have a hard time catching a break.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that you can’t get value when these guys are pitching for their respective teams. They will be underdogs most of the time when they take the mound and that represents a potentially beneficial play.

(Note: quality start, or QS, represents a start in which the pitcher completed at least 6 innings and allowed no more than 3 runs.)

Jason Vargas – Seattle Mariners
It amazes me that the Mariners were unable to stay afloat in the AL East. They started the season with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee as potentially the best one-two punch in baseball. Jason Vargas is no “third wheel” however. Vargas is 6-5 with a 3.20 ERA with 15 quality starts, including 8 QS in his last 11 outings.

Potential Play-On opponent: LA Angels. Vargas is 1-0 with 3 QS against Los Angeles this season. Seattle has two remaining series’ against LAA.

Livan Hernandez – Washington Nationals
Rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg gets most of the hype and attention for the Nats, but it’s the veteran Hernandez who we like as an under-the-radar pitcher. The 35-year old is 7-7 with 14 quality starts and a respectful 3.22 ERA this season. Washington’s offense has done little to help Hernandez, averaging just 3.0 runs per game in his last 13 starts.

Potential Play-On opponent: New York Mets. Hernandez is 1-0 in 3 quality starts against the Mets this season. He’s allowed just 16 hits and 3 ER in 20.1 innings of work. Washington has two remaining series’ against New York this season.

Jeremy Guthrie – Baltimore Orioles
Amazingly, Guthrie is the Orioles leader in wins when it comes to starting pitchers – with 4. He is just 4-11 but has a solid ERA of 4.23. He’s also produced 13 Quality starts in 21 attempts. Baltimore has averaged just 3.1 runs per game in Guthrie’s 21 starts this season (scored 3 or fewer in 15 of 21). It’s hard to bet on the Orioles when starting pitchers are a combined 12-41, but Guthrie is the best option as an underdog.

Potential Play-On opponent: Toronto. Guthrie has faced Toronto three times this season. Despite the 0-2 record, he’s had two QS and allowed just 5 ER in 19.2 innings against the Jays.

Brett Myers – Houston Astros
Houston just traded Roy Oswalt to the Phillies, allowing Myers to obtain the “ace” of staff label. Based on the numbers, Myers was having a better 2010 campaign than Oswalt. Myers is 8-6 and boasts a 3.10 ERA with 15 quality starts this season. In the month of July, he’s allowed just seven runs and is 3-0 in 5 quality starts.

Potential Play-On opponent: Chicago Cubs. Myers is 3-0 against Chicago this season. He’s allowed just four runs in 22.2 innings of work, including a complete game in his most recent start. Houston has two remaining series’ against the Cubs.

Fausto Carmona – Cleveland Indians
Carmona shows up last on our list because he is a little bit more of a household name; however he still plays for the lowly Indians. Carmona has 15 quality starts this season and is the Indians leader in wins (10) and ERA (3.92). In June and July combined, he’s had eight quality starts (out of 11) and has a 3.48 ERA.

Potential Play-On opponent: Detroit & Chicago White Sox. Carmona is 3-1 combined vs. these two teams. and in the lone loss he pitched a complete game in which the Indians were shutout. He’s allowed just 11 ER in 27 innings of work. Cleveland has 12 total games against both remaining on the schedule.

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