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**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 01:06 AM

Friday Late Tips

The late Friday card in baseball showcases the state of California with three games to wrap up the night. The Dodgers and Giants renew acquaintances by the Bay, while the Padres try to open up their lead in the NL West when the Marlins invade Petco Park. We'll begin in Anaheim with the struggling Halos looking to end their losing ways against the division-leading Rangers.

Rangers at Angels - 10:05 PM EST

The season is slowly slipping away from the defending AL West champs as the Halos have dropped eight of 10 games to fall 8 ½ behind the Rangers. Even the sneaky Oakland A's have pulled ahead of Los Angeles in the division, as Ervin Santana tries to halt a four-game skid for the Angels.

Santana (9-7, 3.55 ERA) is responsible for the last L.A. win, beating the Rangers on Saturday in Arlington, 6-2. The Angels' right-hander has lost each of his last two home starts, falling to the Mariners and Royals as a substantial favorite each time. Santana either pitches up or down to the competition at home, as the Halos are 5-1 this season when he is listed as a $1.40 'chalk' or underdog, compared to a 1-3 mark when laying at least $1.50. The 'under' has been a profitable play for Santana, cashing in four straight starts.

Rangers' righty Tommy Hunter (8-0, 2.31 ERA) looks to stay unbeaten, as he faces the Angels for the second time this week. Hunter silenced the Halos' bats in Sunday's 6-4 win in Arlington, limiting Los Angeles to three hits and three earned runs in 6.1 innings. Hunter has not been intimidated by pitching on the road, picking up victories at Boston and Detroit since the All-Star Break. In his only career start in Anaheim, Hunter was racked in an 11-0 setback, giving up seven hits and seven earned runs in 2.1 innings of work.

The home team is 7-2 in the season series, while six games have been decided by one run. Four of the previous five matchups have finished 'under' the total, as the Angels are 5-2 the last seven home meetings with the Rangers.

Marlins at Padres - 10:05 PM EST

Florida continues its swing through the Golden State heading south to Petco Park against San Diego. The Padres still own the lead inside the NL West, which is turning into a two-team race with the recent struggles of the Dodgers and Rockies. San Diego is dealing with a hot San Francisco team that trails by 3 ½ games entering Friday's action.

The Padres send out Wade LeBlanc (5-8, 3.35 ERA), who has just one win since June 13. The southpaw is making his first home start since Independence Day, a non-decision in a 3-2 victory over the Astros. LeBlanc has turned in quality starts in seven of his previous nine outings, including a 3-1 mark at Petco Park. One of the issues LeBlanc has dealt with recently is the lack of runs support, as the Padres have plated three runs or less in six of his last seven starts.

Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.76 ERA) makes his second start for the Marlins since getting recalled from Triple-A New Orleans. Volstad received a no-decision against the Braves, but together a nice outing by delivering six innings of five-hit ball and allowing three earned runs in a 5-4 win. The majority of Volstad's problems has come on the road, with the righty owning a 6.38 ERA, while Florida is 2-6 in eight starts on the highway. Volstad is just 1-2 in three career starts against the Padres, but did win at Petco Park last July, tossing seven innings in a 3-2 victory.

The Padres are a solid 5-1 against the Marlins this season, including a three-game sweep in South Florida last month. Florida looks to turn the tables in Southern California, where the Marlins own a 5-1 mark the last two seasons at Petco Park, while five games have finished 'under' the total.

Dodgers at Giants - 10:15 PM EST

The hottest team in baseball resides in the Bay Area, with the Giants winning 17 of 21 to lead the NL Wild Card race. Included in this run is San Francisco taking two of three at Los Angeles last week, revenging a three-game sweep by the Dodgers in early July. The Dodgers' offense has hit a snag, scoring 12 runs in the last seven games, but L.A. has managed a 5-2 mark in this stretch.

Reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (10-4, 3.12 ERA) bounced back from a subpar effort at Dodger Stadium to shut down the Diamondbacks in his last outing. Lincecum allowed nine hits in eight innings, but limited Arizona to two runs in a no-decision as San Francisco won in extras, 3-2. His previous outing at Los Angeles was one to forget, giving up five earned runs in 4.2 innings of a 7-5 comeback victory. Despite that poor performance, the Giants are 6-2 in Lincecum's eight career starts against the Dodgers, including a 3-0 mark at AT&T Park.

Carlos Monasterios (3-2, 3.30 ERA) is fresh off a scoreless outing against the Mets in his last start, scattering six hits in five innings as the Dodgers came through with a 3-2 victory. Monasterios has bounced back and forth between the big club and Triple-A Albuquerque, making two starts in the minors prior to Sunday's start. Los Angeles has managed a 5-2 mark in Monasterios' seven outings, despite only two starts coming on the road (1-1).

The visiting team is 6-3 this season, while the Dodgers are 3-0 at AT&T Park. Despite San Francisco capturing last week's set, Los Angeles leads the season series, 6-3. The Giants own a solid 12-4 record in series openers following a loss, as San Francisco was shut out by Florida, 5-0.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 01:07 AM

Tigers, Angels in a spiral

With just over two months left in the MLB season there is still time for major changes to take place in the standings, particularly with the trade deadline still looming. The number of serious contenders should shrink in August and here are two teams in the American League that could fall out of the playoff picture in the coming weeks. Take advantage by going against these teams in many upcoming situations.

Detroit Tigers

While the Twins led the way in the American League Central most of the first half of the season, the Tigers appeared to be the team most likely to make a run to the top. As we enter July the AL Central appears to be a two-team race but the Tigers appear to be on the outside of that picture as Chicago has made a great run to the top of the division. Things could get worse before they get better for the Tigers even though this team is still well within striking distance as the road ahead looks challenging. Fading starting pitching, injuries, and the upcoming schedule look to be reasons to derail this squad.

While the rotation for the Tigers still resembles the April rotation used by Detroit, a lot has happened in between then and now. Justin Verlander continues to be the ace and the front-line starter he is expected to be. Max Scherzer has found his form and is delivering strong results even though he was in the minors for two weeks in May. Detroit is hoping the same impact can be found with Rick Porcello, the young starter who has delivered a disastrous second year after being a key part of last year’s successful team. Detroit has lost Porcello’s last two starts since coming back but he has shown improved command so there may be hope. Detroit had hoped Dontrelle Willis could provide something this season but he is no longer with the team and while Armando Galarraga made headlines earlier this season, he has been ineffective in the last two months and was also recently sent back to the minors. Jeremy Bonderman has been able to eat innings but he is being skipped this week in the rotation and he has not been able to recapture the success he had in previous years. Andrew Oliver made four starts but did not prove big league ready and the Detroit rotation will have problems keeping pace with the rest of the AL playoff contenders.

Injuries have taken a serious toll on the Tigers and it will be difficult for this team to survive the recent rash of ailments. Since the All Star Break three key players in the lineup have hit the disabled list. Brandon Inge could miss up to six weeks with a hand injury after being hit by a pitch and fracturing a bone. Magglio Ordonez might be out for the rest of the season after fracturing his ankle on a sliding play last week. Carlos Guillen will also miss time with a calf injury. His return should be expected in the coming weeks but the lineup is really short-handed right now. Injuries have also taken a toll on the pitching staff. The bullpen for Detroit was among the best in baseball for the first three months of the season but a recent slide has in part been impacted by injuries. Flame throwing set-up man Joel Zumaya is out of for the year after an in-game injury a few weeks back. Bobby Seay is hoping to avoid surgery but he has not been able to help the team this season. Zach Miner, who also has served as starter in the past, just underwent Tommy John surgery. The options are limited for the pitching staff and while young players like Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch have enjoyed strong seasons, the current lineup can not compete in the American League.

The biggest reason to expect a fade from the Tigers may be the upcoming schedule. Detroit is playing in Tampa Bay this week and that is the first road series versus the AL East all season long. A trip to Boston is up next and in August the first 18 games will be against playoff contenders including seven games against the White Sox and four games at Yankee Stadium as well as the Angels and Rays visiting Detroit. September features home and away series against the Twins and the White Sox as well as a road trip to Texas. Detroit’s rise in the early months of the season was built with a favorable schedule including an interleague schedule that featured Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Washington. Look for Detroit to face a brutal month of August particularly with the key bats out of the lineup. Unless Chicago and Minnesota also falter, it is unlikely that the September division games will be meaningful.

Los Angeles Angels

The Texas Rangers are not a team with a storied history of locking down its opportunities in the American League West and the Angels have an incredible track record in this division. Still, things do not appear to be working favorably for the Angels and the gap with the division leading Rangers continues to grow. Oakland actually recently passed the Angels in the standings and even recent deadline deals may not be enough to put together a final push in Anaheim. Injuries have been an issue but the pitching staff has also taken a step back and the Los Angeles offense has not come close to matching the production of the past division championship teams.

The Angels let Chone Figgins and John Lackey leave in the off-season and neither move appears to have been overly detrimental as neither former All Star is having a great season with their new teams. The loss of Vladimir Guerrero took less criticism but the veteran has been a huge boost to division rival Texas and possibly the difference maker between these two teams. Hideki Matsui has provided solid at-bats at DH but he is not having a big impact and the re-signing of Bobby Abreu has not paid big dividends either as he has not had the same year that he enjoyed in 2009. A bigger blow has been Kendry Morales breaking his leg in a celebration in June and his absence from the lineup has been noticeable. Adding Alberto Callaspo at third base last week provides a nice upgrade to the lineup but it may be too little too late for this team. The Angels are normally one of the top hitting teams in baseball but this year the Angels rank 21st in batting average and OPS. Los Angeles is scoring 4.5 runs per game but the power and team speed are both down a notch from last season and it has not been enough to make up for shortcomings in the pitching staff.

The Angels got by with mediocre pitching last season but this year the offense has not been able to carry the load. Defensively the Angels have also taken a big step back with more errors than all but eight teams in baseball. Jared Weaver has delivered a great season at the top of the rotation but he has even struggled to pick up wins in recent weeks. Scott Kazmir has been a lost cause as he is back on the DL and was ineffective when healthy. Joel Pineiro has been solid of late and has proven to be a decent addition to the team and Ervin Santana has also had decent results, but neither is able to provide dominant outings. Swapping Joe Saunders for Dan Haren in the rotation should provide a slight upgrade but Haren’s Los Angeles debut got off to a rocky start, leaving after being struck in his throwing arm. Sean O’Sullivan also left in the Callaspo deal leaving Trevor Bell as the next best option in the rotation and ultimately the staff lacks enough consistency to make a major push in the division. The bullpen has also struggled all season with a 4.60 ERA and even worse numbers in recent weeks.

It is rare to see the Angels barely over .500 at this point in the season but that is the situation at present. Los Angeles has held virtually no significant home field advantage and the offense is batting just .255 in home games, a far reach from last season’s offensive output. Los Angeles is normally one of the top scoring teams in baseball but Los Angeles has scored four or fewer runs in 17 of the last 24 games. The Angels have actually been out-scored by 19 runs on the season despite still sitting just above .500 as even with a poor bullpen the Angels have been fortunate to win many one-run games. The Angels have a difficult road schedule the rest of the way traveling to Detroit, Boston, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Texas yet this season. The closing schedule should undue the Angels even if they can hang around in August as the final 16 games of the season will all come against winning teams including a four-game set to close the year in Texas. At this point the Angels still have ten more games with the Rangers so anything is possible, but it is hard to be optimistic given the way the season has gone and knowing that Texas now has Cliff Lee added to the rotation.

**jt4545** · 07-30-2010, 09:53 AM

Thanks star 3 g's very good

**Kaptain** · 07-30-2010, 02:43 PM

get ya some SD Bum....gl as always

**bryce** · 07-30-2010, 04:44 PM

Good luck SDB!!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 04:55 PM

Thanks guys.......lets hope with two days left i can get it back into the positive column or least limit the damage for the month..........

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 04:56 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/30-8/1

Another month is almost in the books in the 2010 Major League Baseball season, as teams will wrap up July and welcome in August this weekend. More importantly, the trade deadline is Saturday and there has already been a flurry of activity over the last few days. Expect more to come. That activity however, can make life difficult for bettors, since pitching matchups are changing, lineups are being adjusted, and relatively few series go unaffected. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the next three days’ action and reveal this weekend’s list of Top ******* Power Trends to consider in your wagering.

One of the biggest moves in anticipation of the trade deadline occurred yesterday when the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt from the Astros. Oswalt will get his first start for Philadelphia on Friday when he goes at Washington. The Phillies are heating up and come into the series as winners of their last eight games. Their bats have finally gotten going, having produced 5.8 runs per game during that stretch. In addition, Philly has dominated Washington of late, going 31-11 overall and 15-6 in Washington over the last three seasons.

The National League’s biggest series is in Cincinnati though, where divisional leaders will square off. The Reds host the Braves for three games, with both teams holding on to slim leads. Atlanta leads Philadelphia by 2-1/2 games in the East but that lead is shrinking fast, as the Phillies are streaking and the Braves are not. They are just 5-7 in their last 12 games, and will try to improve this weekend on a road record of 24-30.

Elsewhere in the Senior Circuit, the rivalry between the Giants and Dodgers resumes in San Francisco, with the hosts heading upward in the standings and the visitors sliding down. The Giants are 17-5 since the 4th of July holiday, having taken over the wildcard lead 3-1/2 games behind San Diego in the NL West, but 3-1/2 games on top of sinking L.A. The Dodgers are just 9-12 in that time span but made a key move this week in acquiring Scott Posednik to plug the outfield gap while Manny Ramirez remains unable to play with a calf injury. Los Angeles is looking to repeat the 3-game sweep of the Giants they enjoyed in San Francisco in late June.

In the American League, the best two teams in baseball will get together for three games when the Yankees visit the Rays. Only two games separate these teams at the top of the A.L. East Division, with Tampa currently in tow. The Rays can easily make up that ground this weekend though, as you’ll see from the trends below that they have absolutely dominated good teams at home in the latter part of the last few seasons. Both teams are playing at the top of their games right now and three solid pitching matchups will make this a series to watch. Incidentally, all eight games between these teams in 2010 have gone OVER the total.

Finally, out West, it’s last gasp time for the Angels, as they host the division leading Rangers for three games. With the Rays comfortably in control of the Wildcard race right now, it’s division or bust for almost everyone else. In that sense, the fact that Angels trail the Rangers by 9-games heading into this series make this desperation time. The clubs have separated over the last two weeks, with Texas going 8-3 since July 18th and the Angels winning just two of 10 games in that span. Angels bats are partly to blame, with just 2.9 runs per game put up in that stretch. At this point, anything but a sweep will be a failure in Anaheim.

Now, here’s a look at those top ******* Power Trends you’ll want to consider for your weekend wagering.

PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON

PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 3.8, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

ATLANTA at CINCINNATI

ATLANTA is 19-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

ARIZONA at NY METS

NY METS are 20-5 UNDER (+14.3 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was NY METS 2.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)

MILWAUKEE at HOUSTON

MILWAUKEE is 30-42 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at ST LOUIS

PITTSBURGH is 2-14 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)

CHICAGO CUBS at COLORADO

COLORADO is 126-69 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 6.9, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO is 23-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.7, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO

LA DODGERS are 15-32 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO

TORONTO is 14-2 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at BOSTON

DETROIT is 16-33 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was DETROIT 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY

TAMPA BAY is 14-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 3*)

BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY

KANSAS CITY is 24-9 OVER (+14.7 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was KANSAS CITY 6.0, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at CHI WHITE SOX

CHI WHITE SOX are 17-4 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)

SEATTLE at MINNESOTA

SEATTLE is 4-21 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.5, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at LA ANGELS

LA ANGELS are 77-61 (+17.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 04:57 PM

Potential Arena Bowl Preview tops Friday menu

Should Jacksonville beat Spokane on Friday night at home, it will wrap up the Southern Division and #1 seed in the American Conference for the playoffs, which start next week. The Shock have already accomplished that feat in the National Conference, meaning the two teams’ head-to-head contest could be the same matchup we see in the 2010 Arena Bowl on August 20th. Spokane is by all rights the league’s best team going into the postseason, but weighing in the stakes on this game for the Sharks, oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have installed them as 5-1/2 point favorites.

Spokane has yet to lose on the road this season, going 7-0 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring foes by 10.5 points per game. However, with everything wrapped up as far as the postseason and seeding is concerned, there’s no reason to believe that the Shock won’t treat this game as an exhibition. Obviously there are a couple of major reasons for this, first they don’t want to see any of their key players succumb to injury. Quarterback Kyle Rowley is the primary factor there. Secondly, having already beaten Jacksonville by a 67-57 margin back in May, the Shock already know they can beat the Sharks and won’t want to show too much this evening with a potential Arena Bowl matchup looming.

I briefly touched on what’s at stake for Jacksonville in tonight’s game, but here’s looking at it further. Win, and the Sharks wrap up a first ever division title for an expansion teams, the top seed in the conference playoffs, and at least two home games en route to the Arena League title. Should Spokane lose sometime in the National Conference Playoffs and Jacksonville emerge as the American Conference rep, then the Sharks would host the title game. However, should the Sharks lose this evening, they will drop to the #3 seed for the postseason, and have to travel to Tulsa for the playoff opener next weekend. With the Talons boasting a strong 6-2 mark at home, Jacksonville clearly wants to avoid that path.

One of the key factors affecting tonight’s game is the status of Jacksonville quarterback Aaron Garcia, who left the game against Tampa Bay two weeks ago with a dislocated shoulder. He is actually listed as questionable for this one. However, backup Bernard Morris has played very well in relief, picking up Playmaker of the Week honors for his efforts versus the Storm and following that up with four touchdowns a week ago in the win at Bossier-Shreveport, one on the ground. He is clearly a different type of quarterback than Garcia, and while Garcia is the more experienced and prolific passer, Morris brings a threat to run it that Garcia doesn’t.

One thing these teams share in common is their defensive intensity, and they rank as the top two teams in the Arena League in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville yields 6.1 and has allowed just 42.5 PPG over the last four weeks. Spokane allow 6.2 yards per play and has only allowed one opponent to top the 50-point mark in the last six weeks.

The only other prior meeting of these teams happened back on May 29th, when Spokane knocked off Jacksonville 67-57 as a 4-point favorite. That game featured just 475 yards of offense, low by Arena standards, with the Shock producing a season low 205 yards.

The pointspread for Friday’s contest opened at Jacksonville -5.5, dipped to 4.5 and has since climbed back to the opening number. The ******* Power Ratings indicate the Shock should be 3-point favorites, but again, this doesn’t account for the motivational levels and what’s at stake for both teams. The total is 107.

Kickoff is set for 7:35 PM ET on NFL Network.

Also on the Friday slate, Tulsa wraps up its regular season in Oklahoma City and will play as 2.5-point underdogs to a Yard Dawgz team that boasts an impressive 5-2 SU & ATS record at home. This game boasts tonight’s Top FoxSheets Super Situation:

Play On - Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)

In Arizona, the Rattlers will look to wrap the National Conference #3 playoff seed with a win over Iowa. A victory would send Arizona to Milwaukee next weekend, while a loss would have them in Spokane. Arizona is a 10-1/2 point favorite and comes in having not lost to the Iowa franchise in five games since ’96, going 5-0 SU & ATS.

**Sirporkie** · 07-30-2010, 04:58 PM

GL Star

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 05:26 PM

Diamond Trends - Friday

Rangers at Angels - The Angels are 0-5 since July 03, 2009 when Ervin Santana starts at home in July for a net profit of $695 when playing against.

Brewers at Astros - The Brewers are 5-0 since August 28, 2009 when Manny Parra starts after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $660.

Indians at Blue Jays - The Indians are 0-10 since August 25, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home for a net profit of $1010 when playing against. The Indians are 0-7 since August 08, 2009 when Justin Masterson starts on the road after his team scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Pirates at Cardinals - The Pirates are 0-9 since July 10, 2009 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Pirates are 0-6 since May 02, 2010 when Jeff Karstens starts as a road dog for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Cardinals are 14-0 since July 17, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1400. The Cardinals are 6-0 since July 17, 2009 when Chris Carpenter starts at home in the first game of a series for a net profit of $600.

Dodgers at Giants - The Giants are 10-0 since June 12, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1000. The Giants are 9-0 since August 18, 2009 when Tim Lincecum starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $900. The Giants are 7-0 since June 09, 2009 after being shutout and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $740.

Diamondbacks at Mets - The Diamondbacks are 0-10 since April 16, 2010 when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1005 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 since May 14, 2010 when Ian Kennedy starts on the road for a net profit of $600 when playing against. The Mets are 0-8 since June 24, 2010 when they are off a win in which they never trailed for a net profit of $895 when playing against.

Phillies at Nationals - The Phillies are 9-0 since April 21, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a walk off win for a net profit of $900. The Nationals are 0-12 since April 27, 2009 as a 140+ dog when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.

Marlins at Padres - The Padres are 6-0 since September 21, 2009 when Wade LeBlanc starts as a favorite after a quality start for a net profit of $600.

Yankees at Rays - The Yankees are 11-0 since April 10, 2009 after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1115. The Yankees are 8-0 since April 28, 2009 on the road vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $815.

Tigers at Red Sox - The Red Sox are 10-0 since April 19, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base for a net profit of $1000. The Red Sox are 9-0 since July 11, 2009 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $900.

Braves at Reds - The Braves are 8-0 since June 03, 2010 when Kris Medlen starts after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $860. The Reds are 5-0 since September 06, 2009 when Johnny Cueto starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $650.

Cubs at Rockies - The Cubs are 0-7 since May 09, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts as a dog after a quality start at home for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Mariners at Twins - The Mariners are 0-6 since April 24, 2010 when Doug Fister starts after his team lost the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $645 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since May 08, 2009 when Scott Baker starts as a favorite when the bullpen has allowed at least one run for two straight games for a net profit of $700.

Athletics at White Sox - The White Sox are 9-0 since June 10, 2010 at home after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $905.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-30-2010, 05:27 PM

Shaders and Faders

Maybe it's not quite the same phenomenon we witnessed at the beginning of the 2009 NFL season, when a proliferation of bad teams distorted results and forced oddsmakers to take cover as the wagering public hammered the losers relentlessly. But as we mentioned in a recent post, this year's group of "stragglers" in Major League Baseball is as bad as we can remember for many years. Along with a corresponding group of sides that have pulled out the whip as the far turn of the MLB campaign approaches, we suddenly have an interesting collection of "shaders" and "faders" to follow in the coming weeks.

Fortunes can also change quickly. To wit: the Phillies looked ready to be buried in the NL East behind the runaway Braves, until, that is, the Phils were graced by the presence of a couple of misfiring NL West entries, a wobbling Colorado bunch and an awful Arizona. Thus, what looked to be a season headed down the tubes in Philadelphia has suddenly reversed itself with an 8-game win streak. And now, with Houston ace Roy Oswalt is on his way after approving a trade to the two-time defending NL champs, they're suddenly starting to think playoffs once more in Philly.

Following are some other MLB "shaders" and "faders" we would be keeping our eyes on as the calendar turns to August.

FADER: LA Angels...Well, the Angels keep acting as if they are in some sort of pennant chase, swinging for high-profile deals (some consummated, some not) as the trade deadline approaches. We wonder, however, if any Halos fan or member of the baseball media has bothered to take a look at the American League standings, and asked what GM Tony Reagins is doing. The addition of D-backs "ace" Dan Haren and his heavy salary might make a bit more sense if the Angels were actually in contention, which they're not, sitting 9 games behind Texas (and 10 back in the loss column) as of July 30, and even slipping beneath resurgent Oakland, all of the way down to third place in the AL West. Current wild card leader Tampa Bay is even further over the horizon. As for this year's version of Haren, it hardly bears much resemblance to the Haren we have gotten to know over the past several years while pitching for Oakland and Arizona. We suspect several baseball "technicians" have overanlayzed Haren's 2010 stats, which indicate he hasn't been allowing any more "balls in play" than in recent years, and have thus theorized that it must have been the shoddy D-backs defense that was the reason for Haren's ERA to balloon near the 5.00 range, uncharacteristic for Haren. What they, and maybe Reagins, have conveniently forgotten is that NL foes were hitting Haren hard this season, cracking 23 homers off of him thru the trade date of July 25, and Haren was quickly victimized by a couple of gopher balls in his Halos debut July 26, one in which he had to leave the game after getting nailed by a line drive. Haren figures to make his next start over the weekend but he hardly seems likely to whip the Angels, off another sweep administered by the nemesis Red Sox, into contention. Reagins' subsequent pursuit of Cubs' 1B Derrek Lee also puzzled, and more than a few observers believe it might be a blessing for the Halos that Lee (a 10/5 player) nixed the deal. With another starting pitcher, Joel Pineiro, now out until mid-September with a strained oblique, maybe it's time for Reagins and Angels fans to stop dreaming about making a playoff run in 2010. It's amazing how many fans seem to think it will be easy for the Halos to reach 90 wins, even if they'd have to play .655 ball (38-20) the rest of the way to get there, at a level where some believe the Rangers (who only have to play .500 the rest of the way to get to 90-72) can be caught. The Halos are not scoring runs and their staff has been a major disappointment, and the team looks in meltdown mode as it has lost 14 of 20 thru July 29, propped up only by a visit from the woeful Mariners in that stretch. The Halos can officially forget about 2010 with anything less than a sweep of the high-flying Rangers this weekend in Anaheim. And at the moment they don't look to be a contender like the...

SHADER: Chicago White Sox...Just when it looked as if the Chisox might be ready to slide the other way after a difficult weekend in Oakland, the Mariners show up at The Cell. Perfect tonic, as it turns out, with Ozzie Guillen's crew sweeping a 4-game set. Now an MLB-best 33-11 over their last 44 games, and winners of 11 straight at home (and 18 of 19) for the first time in 21 years, the White Sox will try to pry one big bat (Prince Fielder? Adam Dunn?) before the trade deadline to set themselves up for what should be a torrid stretch drive in the AL Central with the Twins. And that race doesn't look as if it will include...

FADER: Detroit...It's been a brutal couple of weeks for the Tigers, who have been ripped by injuries (Carlos Guillen, Brandon Inge, and Magglio Ordonez...the latter two out at least a month) as their season has spun out of control since the All-Star break. Since then, the Tigers have dropped 11 of 13 and have almost lost touch with the White Sox and Twins in the AL Central. They could be officially buried this weekend at Fenway Park when having to go against hot...

SHADER: Boston...Just when the Yankees and Rays look ready to leave everyone else in the dust in the East, the Red Sox have gone galloping after both following their midweek sweep of the Angels at Anaheim, thereby concluding a lengthy road trip on a high note. The Bosox aren't yet back to 100% with Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek still on the DL, although Jacoby Ellsbury might be getting close to a return after being sent out on a rehab assignment. And maybe Boston's injury luck is changing as J.D. Drew's recent hamstring pull has not been labeled as serious. John Lackey's solid start earlier in the week against his old employer the Angels might be a sign the big Texan is finally ready to make a contribution to the Boston cause after a mostly indifferent first 31/2 months of his Red Sox career. The offense also picked up somewhat in Anaheim after stalling a bit last weekend in...

FADER: Seattle...No surprise that the Mariners would be on any go-against list, confirmed by the fact they laid down for the White Sox this week in a 4-game set at Chicago after briefly showing some life last weekend vs. the Bosox. Mercifully, the Mariners put battered pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith (lower back strain) on the DL after getting pounded on Tuesday night by the Chisox, who clubbed Seattle pitching for 32 runs in the just completed 4-game set that came on the heels of a skirmish in the Mariners dugout last weekend between Chone Figgins and Russell Branyan, with Jose Lopez jumping into the fray to protect his buddy Figgins. Not good. Getting swept at The Cell drops the Mariners to 15-36 on the road, and Seattle now goes from the fire into the barbeque pit this weekend as it travels to...

SHADER: Minnesota...The Twins have rekindled their playoff flame, winning 5 straight and 10 of 13 thru July 29 after a slump before the All-Star break threatened to derail the once-buoyant postseason hopes. And a weekend set at Target Field vs. the poor-traveling Mariners could add more gasoline to the tank. Remember, too, that the Twins are proven stretch runners, as the core of this year's team chased down the Tigers at the wire a year ago with a 17-4 run to finish the regular season, and those with a bit longer memories might recall how Minnesota also ran down Detroit in '06 to win the division crown. Moreover, the Twins have rediscovered their offense, scoring 97 runs in 14 games since the break despite 1B Justin Morneau & 2B Orlando Hudson sitting on the DL. C Joe Mauer resurrected his somewhat disappointing campaign on the recent road trip through Baltimore and Kansas City, while Delmon Young continues to post numbers that could land him in the MVP mix. Ex-Miami Hurricane rookie 3B Danny Valencia has also proven a recent revelation. The Twins might still have a deal or two left in them after acquiring closer Matt Capps (who may or may not be an upgrade from Jon Rauch) from the Nationals, although the urgency to upgrade the rotation has lessened with Brian Duensing assuming Nick Blackburn's role with aplomb. High-profile pitchers such as Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, and Roy Oswalt have already moved, but Minnesota GM Bill Smith might be on the lookout for more reinforcements. Nonetheless, keep an eye on any potential personnel moves that might involve Ted Lilly from the...

FADER: Chicago Cubs...The Cubs seem ready to throw in the towel on 2010, as they've already tried (unsuccessfully) to move 1B Derrek Lee to the Angels. Lee could still be on the move, as might 2B Ryan Theriot and the aforementioned lefty Lilly, this year's hard-luck hurler whose 3-8 record belies a respectable 3.69 ERA. Lilly, who could be excused if he were to sue the Cubs hitters for lack of run support, might only leave Wrigley Field for a little while if he does get traded, as he's indicated he would consider re-signing with the Cubbies in the offseason. But the roster is aging, Lou Piniella has already announced he is leaving after the season, and there is no indication the Cubs are ready to get back into the race after a couple of feeble midweek performances in Houston, which is hardly in the chase as is...

SHADER: San Diego...The Padres got over a big hump this week when taking two of three at home vs. the Dodgers, who had owned San Diego and most of the NL West for the past two seasons. Bud Black's underrated pitching staff has shown no signs of cracking, and the lineup was gifted with a welcome addition in Miguel Tejada, who will get plenty of work at 3B and SS the next two months after being rescued from the sinking ship in Baltimore. Those who wondered if the Padres were going to be a buyer at the trade deadline just got their answer. Beckoning is a hammer-and-tongs duel into September with the Giants, and not...

FADER: LA Dodgers...Now that the Dodgers seem to be losing some of their hard-to-comprehend mastery over NL West foes, having dropped 4 of 7 vs. division rivals since the All-Star break (after an incomprehensible 85-38 mark vs. division foes prior), we suspect the Blue will soon be dropping from the race, both in the division and the wild card. The Giants & Padres could almost put paid LA's hopes in the West in a pair of pivotal series for the Dodgers over the weekend in San Francisco and next week vs. the Padres at Chavez Ravine, and with sides like the Braves, Phils, Giants, Cards, and Reds looking like they'll be hanging around the whole way, the wild card chase probably won't end up involving the Dodgers, either. The offense has gone into a complete eclipse over the past week, failing to score more than two runs in regulation nine innings over the last eight games, and only some stellar pitching efforts (and a visit from the road-weary Mets) has kept LA from falling off the map since the All-Star break. And this weekend could be a bad time to be facing...

SHADER: San Francisco...The Giants have not lost more than one in a row since before the All-Star break and have given indications they are ready for a serious run with their dramatic upsurge in July, which saw them win 17 of their last 21 before running into a hot Anibal Sanchez, the Florida hurler who almost no-hit the Giants on Thursday. That finally ended rookie C Buster Posey's 22-game hitting streak, but all signs are still "go" at AT&T Park with not only Posey, but hurler Madison Bumgarner (on the short end of the Sanchez gem after winning four previous outings) providing the sort of rookie excitement not seen in San Francisco in more than a a quarter century. Meanwhile, Tim Lincecum seems to be back on track after hitting some unexpected bumps in the road the first half of the season, and along with Matt Cain, a rejuvenated Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, and rookie sensation Bumgarner gives skipper Bruce Bochy arguably the deepest rotation in the league. The Giants, who have been getting some production out of recently-signed Pat Burrell, still might be in the market for another bat at the trade deadline, and could be targeting Milwaukee OF Corey Hart, who should be returning to the lineup soon from an injured wrist.

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