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**StarDust Bum** · 07-28-2010, 11:52 PM

Thursday Tips

The Thursday getaway card gives bettors several early opportunities to cash in on the diamond. The Braves look to wrap up their series with a win at Washington, while the Rays try to keep the Tigers' bats quiet at Tropicana Field. We'll start in the Big Apple with the Mets and Cardinals closing out their series at Citi Field.

Cardinals at Mets - 12:10 PM EST

Following the battle of southpaws on Tuesday night between Johan Santana and Jaime Garcia, a pair of right-handers takes the mound for the series finale in Flushing. The Mets drew first blood in Monday's opener with an 8-2 thrashing of the Redbirds, chasing Adam Wainwright after five innings. St. Louis and Cincinnati keep going back and forth atop the NL Central, as the Cards come into Wednesday's action a half-game behind the Reds.

The Mets send out R.A. Dickey (6-4, 2.55 ERA), who looks for his first win since June 23 against the Tigers. Dickey suffered a hip injury in Sunday's 1-0 loss to the Dodgers, as the knuckleballer scattered two hits in 5.2 scoreless innings. His numbers wouldn't necessarily reflect a six-start winless streak, putting together four quality outings in this stretch. Dickey can only do so much, as the Mets have averaged one run/game in his previous four starts, while all four games finished 'under' the total.

Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) has compiled one quality start in seven outings for the Cardinals, while St. Louis is 2-3 in his five road starts. Hawksworth doesn't go deep into games, as the righty has tossed six innings only twice, but the Cards have supplied him with five runs/game in his seven starts.

The Mets are 6-2 the last eight home meetings with the Cardinals, while New York has plated at least six runs six times in this span. St. Louis is 3-8 the previous 11 road games, including a 1-5 mark as an away underdog.

Tigers at Rays - 12:10 PM

Tampa Bay is starting to pick up the winning, while trying to keep pace with New York in the AL East. The Tigers, meanwhile, are headed in the opposite direction with a 3-11 mark the last 14 games to fall four games behind the Twins in the AL Central race. Detroit's offense has faltered on the highway recently by scoring two runs or less in six of the previous seven road contests.

Cy Young front-runner David Price (13-5, 2.90 ERA) looks for consecutive victories for the first time since June 15, as the Rays' southpaw is coming off a road win at Cleveland his last start. Price's numbers would dictate the top pitcher's award in the American League, while owning a 6-1 mark at the Trop to go along with eight quality starts at home. Price beat the Tigers in his lone career start against the Tigers, a 3-1 victory at Comerica Park last August.

The sophomore slump continues for Tigers' right-hander Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.55 ERA), who lost his previous outing against the Blue Jays by a 3-2 count. The 21-year old hasn't won a start since May 23 at Los Angeles, a span of seven outings. Porcello hasn't exactly pitched poorly in his two starts since getting recalled from Triple-A Toledo, allowing four earned runs in 14 innings. However, the slumping Detroit offense has tallied three runs in losses to Cleveland and Toronto as short favorites in Porcello's last two trips to the mound.

The 'under' has hit in six of Detroit's last seven road games, while cashing in 10 of the previous 12 overall. July has been a good month for Tampa Bay, winning 16 of 22 games this month, including an 8-1 mark at home.

Braves at Nationals - 12:35 PM EST

The leaders of the NL East have hit a bump in the road with losses in three of their last four games, as the Braves try to grab a daytime victory over the Nationals. Washington shut out Atlanta in Tuesday's opener, despite rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg getting scratched prior to the game.

Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.48 ERA) looks to end a disastrous run over the last month, as the Braves have dropped five of his previous six outings. Lowe received a no-decision in Friday's loss at Florida, but it was the third consecutive start that the righty didn't pitch past the sixth inning. The road has not been kind to Lowe this season, with the Braves winning just four of his 11 starts on the highway. To make matters worse, Lowe has beaten the Nats only twice in his last six meetings with Washington dating back to last season.

The Nationals will send out southpaw Scott Olsen (2-2, 3.77 ERA) for the first time since May 21, as the ex-Marlin recovers from a shoulder injury. Olsen started the season strong with underdog wins against Florida and Los Angeles, but the Nats lost each of his last three starts prior to his placement on the DL. The left-hander has seen plenty of the Braves throughout his short career, as his teams have beaten Atlanta in four of the last five games at home.

Atlanta owns a 5-9 mark during road games during the day, while Washington has lost six of its last seven home matinee contests. The 'over' has been a profitable play for the Nationals at home recently, cashing in seven of the previous nine.

**jt4545** · 07-29-2010, 02:19 PM

Thanks and good luck

**bryce** · 07-29-2010, 03:03 PM

Nice three day run!
GL!

**StarDust Bum** · 07-29-2010, 05:30 PM

Evening MLB Action:

NY Yankees - 7:05 PM ET Cleveland +140 500
Cleveland - Over 10 500 *****

Arizona - 7:05 PM ET Philadelphia -158 500
Philadelphia - Under 9.5 500 *****

Oakland - 8:05 PM ET Texas -184 500
Texas - Over 8.5 500 *****

Baltimore - 8:10 PM ET Baltimore +123 500*****
Kansas City - Over 9.5 500

Seattle - 8:10 PM ET Seattle +155 500 *****
Chi. White Sox - Over 8.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 07-29-2010, 05:52 PM

Surprising Argos 10-point dogs at Montreal

The Toronto Argonauts visit the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday as one of the most surprising stories of the young CFL season. At stake is a chance to claim sole possession of first place in the East Division. That might be the only reason to suspect a competitive game. Otherwise, most strength ratings, trends, and even the oddsmakers’ expect this to be a cakewalk for Montreal. Bookmaker.com lists the Alouettes as 10-point favorites. Can the Argos continue their unexpected surge or are the defending champs ready to put them in their place?

It was just last season when Toronto seemed destined for a lengthy rebuilding process, and an over-matched coaching staff lost the trust of its players and the control of a season. But the Argos have won three of their first four games in 2010 -- matching its total under the short-lived reign of coach Bart Andrus last year.

The Argos have won each of their last three games with a combination of stout defense and stellar special teams play -- the same kind of formula that delivered the franchise its last Grey Cup win, six years ago.

"We have a chance." offensive lineman Taylor Robertson said. "We believe. That's the difference."

Toronto rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the B.C. Lions last week at Rogers Centre, nine days after squeaking out a 27-24 comeback win against the Calgary Stampeders. The Argos opened their run with a two-point win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Rookie running back Cory Boyd has established himself as the CFL's leading rusher, Chad Owens has been one of the league's most dynamic return men and only Calgary's defence has forced more turnovers. Boyd will be aiming to become the first Argos running back since Bill Symons in 1968 with four consecutive 100-yard games.

Those successes have helped to mask the struggles of first-year quarterback Cleo Lemon, whose offense ranks dead last in passing yards. Toronto is the only team in the league that has not thrown for at least 1,000 yards yet this season -- managing only 791.

In 2009, no team scored fewer points than the Argos, who were held below 20 points per game, on average. Toronto ranked last in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. The team finished the season with a 3-15 record, missing the playoffs for the second straight year.

Andrus was fired in December, and the team officially announced it had hired Jim Barker two months later. The long-time CFL executive -- and former Argos head coach -- spent the rest of the winter rebuilding the team.

Toronto's new crew will certainly have a major test against the Alouettes. The defending Grey Cup champions have not lost a game at home since Oct. 29, 2008 and it was almost a year before that, Oct. 20, 2007, when Toronto last beat Montreal.

Since Toronto squeaked out that 16-9 win to salvage one game in the season series, the Argos have lost six straight games to the Alouettes by an average of a little more than 20 points.

According to oddsmakers and this week’s ******* FoxSheet, bettors should expect much of the same on Thursday night. The ******* Power Line shows that Montreal should be favored by about 21 points, rather than 10.

The Alouettes come in at 3-1, but unlike Toronto, who is being outscored by 1.3 PPG, are beating their opponents by an average of 8.5 PPG. That leads to a very significant trend going against the Argos:

TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 16.7, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 1*)

Montreal has also been at its best against divisional foes during its recent run of success:

MONTREAL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 35.8, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 1*)

Most handicapping data seems to suggest a blowout, but momentum, confidence, and perhaps a bit of luck could be on the side of Toronto. We’ll see what wins out when the teams kickoff at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday night in Montreal.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-29-2010, 05:53 PM

Latos, Padres test 22-3 trend in key series finale

The Dodgers have been in a prolonged offensive dryspell, having failed to top the five-run mark in any game since the All-star break, scoring just 2.2 runs per game during that stretch. Making matters worse for their key series finale in San Diego on Thursday is that they’ll be squaring off against one of the league’s hottest pitchers in Mat Latos. The Padres are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com, and a key 22-3 ******* Power Trend backs them based on that line.

Runs have certainly been hard to come by for the Dodgers of late. It would be quite surprising if that trend didn't continue in the series finale between them and the Padres on Thursday against Mat Latos, who is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.80 ERA since June 22. He hasn't lost in seven starts since June 4, and San Diego has won them all as the big right-hander has struck out 50 in 46 1-3 innings.

Overall, Los Angeles is trying to stop the Padres from winning an eighth consecutive game started by Latos.

Latos will be opposed by Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA), who has also been impressive of late, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in his last five starts.

Los Angeles made a move just before Wednesday's game that could ignite an offense that has scored 12 runs in seven games. The Dodgers acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik from Kansas City for a pair of minor leaguers. Podsednik, among the major league leaders with 30 steals, is batting .379 during a 15-game hitting streak and gives the Dodgers another solid hitter with Manny Ramirez still on the disabled list.

With the Padres playing as -140 favorites, its noteworthy to cite a particular ******* Power Trend that will apply this evening:

SAN DIEGO is 22-3 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 5.1, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*)

San Diego has been nearly automatic in this favorite role this season, and in my opinion, it has more to do with the Padres’ bullpen than anything else. In fact, San Diego’s relief staff has been the best in the business all season long and currently boasts impressive numbers of 2.79 on ERA and 1.041 on WHIP. Typically, oddsmakers don’t account too much for bullpens when building their daily lines, but with as good as San Diego’s staff has been in the late innings, the Padres have been able to either keep or build leads after the starting pitchers have departed.

Over the last seven games, only 13 hitters have reached base on the San Diego bullpen in 23-1/3 innings, good for a WHIP of just 0.557.

If you’re not sold yet on the Padres’ chances to finish off this series in impressive fashion, consider this power ******* Super Situation as the potential clincher:

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. (60-16 since 1997.) (78.9%, +37.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The Padres are favored with their best pitcher on the mound against a Dodgers’ team that is starving for runs. Seems pretty easy doesn’t it? We’ll find out this evening when the teams throw out the first pitch at about 6:35 PM ET.

**Sirporkie** · 07-29-2010, 06:44 PM

GL Star

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