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**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2010, 06:24 PM

Josh Johnson: Worth your betting dollar

One pitcher has dominated the National League like no other over the course of the last three months and his name is not Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Rather, it is Josh Johnson, who has rather quietly emerged from the shadow of those other aces to become one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He is on a roll like no other of late, and oddsmakers are having trouble gauging just how good he has been when setting their prices. For instance, for Tuesday’s game against Matt Cain and the Giants, bettors at Sportsbook.com can back Johnson’s Marlins at close to a pick em'.

The Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6 since Independence Day. Some of the credit during that surge has to go to Johnson, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge. However, his complete domination traces back to long beyond that.

Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston's Mike Scott in 1986.

In addition, Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road.

Perhaps the biggest signs of how much command a pitcher has had can be shown in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. When looking at Johnson’s numbers during that stretch, he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.

Although Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, he's never faced them when he's been pitching this well. As the league’s ERA leader, he looks to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series Tuesday night at AT&T Park.

The right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.

As an illustration of just how much trouble the oddsmakers are having with Johnson, most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. For tonight, he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.

The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.

Johnson will get his first look at promising Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey - whose 39 hits this month lead the majors - is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.

Cain has generally been in a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts. He has won his last two starts after the Giants had dropped his prior five appearances.

Ironically, it is Johnson’s dominance that leads to a powerful ******* Super Situation indicating that he may be ready to fall finally on Tuesday:

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)

For as much as the Marlins have been winning, they have been doing it more with pitching.

However, that said, Johnson still might prove to be the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:

JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 1*)

First pitch for this highly intriguing contest is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the ******* Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2010, 06:26 PM

Intriguing pointspread on Tuesday WNBA board

The Los Angeles Sparks are 7-16, the Minnesota Lynx are 7-14. Point differentials, strength ratings, and even game simulations suggest that these teams are very close to one another. That’s what makes it so intriguing that Minnesota finds itself as a 7-point home favorite for their WNBA contest Tuesday night, a line that quickly shot up from the opening number of 5.5. Are sharp bettors on to something about this game? Let’s take a closer look to see if we can’t all benefit from their wisdom.

The first thing bettors will want to consider when they look at the contest is its importance when it comes to the playoff picture since despite the teams’ abysmal records, Los Angeles can move into a tie with the Lynx for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Sparks have also beaten Minnesota in four straight head-to-head games while going 3-1 ATS. The early line move would suggest that bettors don’t give one iota about this fact.

The Associated Press game preview seems to be trying to lead bettors in the opposite direction, indicating “The Sparks appear to be facing the Lynx at the right time. Minnesota has dropped three straight and is coming off a 127-124 double-overtime home loss to Phoenix on Saturday, the highest-scoring game in WNBA history. “

However, it here where you realize that the difference in play recently is what may be driving the price on Minnesota higher & higher. When Los Angeles played Minnesota last month, the Sparks lost their star player for the season, Candace Parker, placing their hopes for a playoff berth in jeopardy. Parker dislocated her shoulder in the 88-84 win at home on June 13th.

That game, and injury, has sent these teams in completely opposite directions. The Sparks have gone 4-9 since, with the defensive effort suffering the most. Los Angeles has yielded 75-points or more in all but three games during that span.

The Lynx meanwhile, are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS, and though they have lost three straight games, the margin in those contests is a combined seven points, with losses to the likes of Seattle, San Antonio, and Phoenix. Minnesota is clearly a team that is improving as the season wears on, and this is an important contest for the franchise. The Lynx will have a motivating payback trend behind them for tonight’s game:

MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 90.7, OPPONENT 81.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Speaking of revenge, how about a powerful system to back that trend:

Play On - Favorites (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (23-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +17.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Although the ******* Game Estimator calls for a 2-point Minnesota win, plus the Power Rating Line and Outplay Factor Line both indicate a bit less, there seems to be enough evidence to believe that early bettors have this one right. Don’t be surprised to see the Lynx tear into the Sparks tonight in front of the home folks. They seem to be the more-ready postseason club at this point.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2010, 07:17 PM

Tuesday's Tip Sheet

The majority of teams have played just under 100 games and while there is still a lot of season left, the race for the playoff chase is starting to separate the contenders from pretenders, especially in the National League. Three clubs that face uphill battles are the Mets, Dodgers and Rockies and all of them start new series tonight. Let’s take a closer look at their matchups, plus break down a revenge contest for the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg.

Atlanta at Washington

The Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA) show will be on tap Tuesday when the young stud tries to help Washington stop its bleeding against Atlanta. The Nationals started the second-half of the season with 10 straight on the road and the club has gone 3-7. The good news for tonight is that two of the three victories during this span came when Strasburg started, which is why he’s a favorite (-140) against the Braves. However, Atlanta did earn a 5-0 victory over the ace on June 28, but make a note that the win happened in Georgia. On the season, Washington has gone 6-3 in his nine starts and the ‘under’ has prevailed to a 5-4 mark.

On the road, the Braves have only gone 23-28 and that includes two losses to the Marlins over the weekend. Atlanta’s pitching has been great this year, but the rotation gave up 17 runs in three games to Florida. And if you look at the first 10 games since the All-Star break, the team has surrendered five or more runs seven times, which has helped the ‘over’ go 8-2. Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) will look to get the staff back on track tonight but that could be tough considering the team has come up short in both of his second-half starts. Hanson earned a no decision against the Padres (4-6) last Wednesday but he only gave up two hits over six innings. The right-hander has faced the Nationals five times in his young career and the Braves have gone 3-2, which includes one win this season.

The Nationals have taken four of the first six meetings against the Braves this season, including two of three at home during an early series in May and the one loss (6-7) in D.C. came in extra innings.

St. Louis at N.Y. Mets

After going 2-8 on a West Coast trip to start the second-half, the Mets are more than happy to return home. The offense averaged 2.3 runs per game during the stint and the only victories were notched when pitcher Johan Santana was on the hill. New York has dominated clubs at Citi Field (30-16) this season but a win on Tuesday won’t come easy against St. Louis.

The Cardinals avoided a three-game sweep to the Cubs on Sunday with an extra-inning win (4-3) and now they’ll send Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) to the hill. Wainwright is arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season and his recent numbers are sick. Even though the Cards lost in Wainwright’s last appearance (0-2), he went six innings and gave up no runs. Before that setback, he’s allowed 21 hits and one earned run in 29 1/3 innings. The six-foot-seven righty has been installed as a healthy road favorite (-150) over the Mets and he’s already recorded a complete game victory (5-3) against this squad on Apr. 18.

Jonathon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA) will have the opportunity to notch the upset in this spot and the lefthander is hoping for some run support. New York has produced a 10-6 mark in his appearances but it’s dropped three in a row when the lefthander pitches. During this skid, Niese has only given up a combined 7 earned runs but the offense has been held to four. The lack of punch in the Mets’ offense combined with Niese’s efforts has helped the ‘under’ go 7-3 in his last 10, including five in a row. The Cardinals are averaging 4.8 runs against lefties this season, which has translated into an 18-15 record against southpaws.

The two teams met in mid-April from Busch Stadium and the Cardinals took two of the three. The ‘under’ went 2-1 and the oddsmakers are expecting another low-scoring affair on Tuesday, opening the number at seven runs.

Pittsburgh at Colorado

When betting on daily sports, it’s often been said that you never bet against a club that’s won three or more games in a row and you never bet on a team that has a losing streak of three or more. If you follow that logic, then you’ll pass on tonight’s matchup from Coors Field between the Pirates and Rockies. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row and is 4-6 after the All-Star break, while the Rockies have gone 2-9 in the second-half, plus they’ve dropped a season-high six games.

To no surprise, Jorge De La Rosa (3-2, 5.65 ERA) and the Rockies have been made healthy favorites (-200), probably a little too high considering the team’s current form. Despite the skid, the Rockies have performed well at home (31-16) and the Pirates have been an automatic fade (11-38) on the road. De La Rosa has helped the team win three of their games at home in his four starts and all of the victories have been by two runs or more. Run-line players looking to back the Rockies can cut the price in half to an even (+100) bet at sportsbooks tonight.

Zach Duke (4-9, 5.22 ERA) won his second start off the DL against the Brewers (15-3) last Wednesday, as the lefthander gave up six hits and two earned runs over six innings. In his career, Duke has gone 3-2 with a 6.90 ERA against Colorado and he was lit up for nine earned runs in an 11-3 loss at Coors Field. The ‘over’ has cashed in all five of his starts against the Rockies.

The two clubs haven’t met this season, but the Rockies did take six of nine against the Pirates last year, which included a 5-1 record at home.

L.A. Dodgers at San Diego

The Dodgers opened the second-half with six straight losses but they quickly rebounded by winning four of their last five. Unfortunately, the team still trails San Diego by six games in the NL West, which means this three-game series is big for L.A. Including these three contests, the two teams will meet seven times over the next 11 days so the division lead could be shortened or extended.

Chad Billingsley (8-5, 4.22 ERA) takes the hill for the Dodgers and he’s got solid career stats (9-4, 2.51 ERA) against the Padres, plus he racked up a 1-0 shutout win on May 16 at Petco Park. This particular victory occurred during the Dodgers’ road sweep over the Padres and it should also be noted that it was the only time this season that Bud Black’s team lost three in a row.

San Diego just wrapped up a quick six-game set on the East Coast against the Braves (1-2) and Pirates (3-0) and have now gone 7-2 in its nine games after the All-Star break. Jon Garland (9-6, 3.61 ERA) will look to keep the win streak rolling and he’s been a tough out (5-1, 2.51 ERA) at home. He’s faced the Dodgers twice this season, with the team going 1-1.

Even though the Padres don’t have the most potent lineup in the bigs, total players have watched the ‘over’ go 7-1-1 in the second-half. Keep in mind that all of the totals have been at 8 ½ runs or less, which doesn’t give the pitchers much room for error. For this battle, the number stands at 6 ½, with money shaded toward the ‘over’ (-120). Even though it’s low, the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the five encounters this season between the pair.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2010, 07:18 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Red Sox at Angels – The Red Sox are 6-0 since April 14, 2010 when John Lackey starts when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $650. The Angels are 6-0 since September 09, 2009 when Jered Weaver starts as a home favorite after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $600.

Cubs at Astros – The Cubs are 0-8 since May 04, 2010 after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $990 when playing against. The Cubs are 0-6 since June 25, 2009 when Ted Lilly starts within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $615 when playing against. The Astros are 8-0 since April 20, 2010 when Brett Myers starts at home for a net profit of $870

Orioles at Blue Jays – The Orioles are 0-8 since September 30, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800 when playing against. The Blue Jays are 8-0 since April 07, 2009 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $800. The Blue Jays are 0-7 since August 12, 2009 when Ricky Romero starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $745 when playing against.

Reds at Brewers – The Reds are 0-11 since May 17, 2009 on the road after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1142 when playing against. The League is 12-0 since May 31, 2010 as a home 140+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $1200.

Marlins at Giants – The Giants are 0-4 since August 20, 2009 when Matt Cain starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and ts:site=away and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $570 when playing against.

Yankees at Indians – The Yankees are 17-0 since April 22, 2009 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1700. The Yankees are 10-0 since June 08, 2009 after a win in which they had 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1010.

Cardinals at Mets – The Mets are 0-7 since June 28, 2010 and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $765 when playing against.

Braves at Nationals – The Braves are 0-9 since September 09, 2009 as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Nationals are 8-0 since September 28, 2009 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $910.

Dodgers at Padres – The Dodgers are 6-0 since May 10, 2010 when Chad Billingsley starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $610. The Padres are 9-0 since May 19, 2009 as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $900

Diamondbacks at Phillies – The Diamondbacks are 0-9 since May 02, 2010 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $900 when playing against. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since May 10, 2010 when Rodrigo Lopez starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Athletics at Rangers – The Athletics are 0-7 since July 30, 2009 when Gio Gonzalez starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Rangers are 8-0 since April 28, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800

Tigers at Rays – The Tigers are 7-0 since July 29, 2009 when Justin Verlander starts on the road within 20 cents of pickem for a net profit of $730. The Rays are 0-4 since August 20, 2009 when James Shields starts as a home favorite when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $750 when playing against.

Pirates at Rockies – The Pirates are 0-12 since May 28, 2010 as a 140+ dog after allowing 6+ runs loss for a net profit of $1200 when playing against. The Rockies are 9-0 since May 29, 2009 as a home favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $900. The Rockies are 7-0 since July 03, 2009 when Jorge De La Rosa starts as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $700

Twins at Royals – The Twins are 0-7 since April 11, 2010 on the road vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $755 when playing against. The Twins are 7-0 since August 08, 2009 when Carl Pavano starts on the road when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $930.

Mariners at White Sox – The Mariners are 0-10 since May 13, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1040 when playing against. The White Sox are 8-0 since June 10, 2010 after a 5+ run win for a net profit of $860

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