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**Kaptain** · 07-25-2010, 12:17 PM

give em L Bum....thanks

**zeib10** · 07-25-2010, 12:36 PM

Good luck today.

**jt4545** · 07-25-2010, 12:42 PM

Thanks and good luck star

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2010, 01:33 PM

Short list of dominant drivers at Brickyard 400

Seven races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series reaches the Chase, or the postseason if you will. After enjoying the last weekend off, the drivers get back to work at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where they’ve been coming once annually for the Brickyard 400 ever since ’94. There has been just a short list of dominant drivers here historically, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett sharing honors in the early years and since passing the torch on to Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, those latter two have won the last five races at Indy and for good reason are listed as the favorites for Sunday according to Sportsbook.com.

When NASCAR’s Cup Series last left you, it was David Reutimann basking in the limelight of a second career win. This time around however, it was no fluke, as he was upfront for most of the Lifelock.com 400, a much different scenario to his first win at Charlotte in 2009, a rain-shortened event. Perhaps more important to Reutimann than the win was the ground he made up in the points standings. He was able to climb two spots up to 15th and now finds himself just 96-points out of the Chase behind Clint Bowyer. In between him and Bowyer are Dale Earnhardt, Jr (-15) and Mark Martin (-37). At this point, you’d have to believe that anyone beyond Kasey Kahne (-120) in 17th is in trouble. Remaining at the top of the standings is Kevin Harvick, 103 points out in front of Jeff Gordon. Jimmie Johnson (-188), Denny Hamlin (-203) and Kurt Busch (-221) round out the top 5.

With just seven races remaining to qualify for the Chase, this race takes on significance, perhaps even more than usual, since Indianapolis’ sister track, Pocono Raceway, also is on the upcoming schedule. Drivers that fare well at this 2-1/2 mile flat superspeedway typically do well at Pocono, which has similar features. That said, a victory this week is a much-coveted one, both for the pageantry of the host venue, the Brickyard, as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars tend shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last seven winners of this race are mega-stars. Jimmie Johnson & Tony Stewart have won the last five Brickyard 400’s, with Johnson being the defending two-time champion. Jeff Gordon won the 2004 event and Kevin Harvick reached Victory Lane in 2003. Of course, those latter two are currently the 2010 standings.It’s interesting to note that Johnson, winner of three of the last four races here, went on to his first of four straight series titles after taking home his first Checkered Flag from Indy. In fact, that feat has happened now eight times in 16 years, further signifying the importance of winning the Brickyard 400.

The 2009 race was described as “boring”, with a record-low tying nine lead changes and only three cautions disrupting the green flag action. However, for Indy officials, the results were just fine when considering the debacle of 2008, when tire problems dominated the race. They were so severe that the longest green flag run was 12 laps. Goodyear has done continuous testing in the two years since and judging by the lack of trouble a year ago, the tire problems seem to be behind them. That said, there are still many fans that may be growing weary of Indy anyhow. The racing at the Brickyard has always been more conducive to open-wheel cars. As for the stock cars, track positioning and pit strategy have always been key at IMS, as the minimal banking on the track has mandated cautious driving with minimal passing. Naturally, fans aren’t turned on by that type of racing.

Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Looking at the results at the two tracks combined in the COT (since ’08), you’ll find Jimmie Johnson atop the heap in almost every key statistical category. In seven total races, he leads in Poles (2), Wins (2), Average Finish (5.1), Top 5’s (4), Top 10’s (6), and Laps Led (241). It’s no wonder that oddsmakers have established him as the 7-2 favorite. Stewart is next at 7-1, and he boasts four Top 5’s as well in that 7-race stretch, along with an average finish of 11.0. Denny Hamlin is listed at 8-1, with 222 laps led and four Top 5’s. However, his success has come mostly at Pocono, with his average finish at Indy in four career starts just 17.3.

Beyond the three favorites in terms of stats and odds, you’ll find a handful of other drivers capable of competing for the win on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, at 8-1 heads that list. He has a remarkable 10 Top 5’s in 2010, though he’s yet to reach Victory Lane. Having spent time in his childhood in Indiana, many consider this Gordon’s home track, and he could break the winless drought on Sunday. It would be his career-leading 5th Indy win. Kyle Busch also shares 8-1 odds, although he has not won in five Inday starts, and has averaged just a 24.6 finish in the seven flat superspeedway races in the COT. Juan Montoya (12-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), Jeff Burton (14-1), Carl Edwards (20-1) and Kasey Kahne (20-1)will wrap up my own personal short list of contenders for the weekend. Typically, a driver has to be either running very well at the time, or have a rich history at Indy to win the Brickyard 400. All five meet one or both of that criteria. Of the group, Kahne & Edwards are the only winners at a track like this in the last seven COT races, though Montoya has threatened to win and seems to love coming back to the Brickyard, a track he ran while in open wheel racing. The Childress guys, Harvick and Burton, are running very well over the last month.

Among the drivers you may want to avoid this week, at least in terms of the numbers, are Kurt Busch (12-1), Matt Kenseth (25-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1), Martin Truex (35-1), and Jamie McMurray (35-1).Busch has surprisingly bad numbers at Pocono and Indy in the COT, with an average finish of 23.6 and two DNF’s. Kenseth is struggling to put things together during his break-in period with his new crew chief, and has averaged just 15.7 in the past seven flat superspeedway races. Junior, Truex, and McMurray are longshots as the odds suggest, and have combined for only three Top 10 finishes and 17 laps led in 21 starts.

This week’s qualifying for the Brickyard 400 begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with eight of the previous 16 winners starting in the top 5. Jimmie Johnson started 16th a year ago and won. No winner has ever come from worse than the 27th starting spot. Johnson has also finished 3rd in ’09, and 1st in ’08 in Happy Hour, so if he demonstrates similar speed this weekend in practice, look out. As always, the ******* NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are ready to prepare you for all of the racing action…

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2010, 01:35 PM

Sunday Tips

The final Sunday in July is loaded with its fair share of late action, including three evening games. The Cardinals and Cubs hook up at Wrigley Field, while the Rangers try to finish off the Angels in Arlington. We'll start at Chavez Ravine with a pair of struggling teams looking to make their move in the NL Wild Card race.

Mets at Dodgers - 4:05 PM EST

Two teams that have decided to play their worst baseball at the wrong possible time conclude a four-game set in Southern California. The Mets are hoping to end this disastrous West Coast swing on a good note after dropping six of seven at San Francisco and Arizona. Los Angeles hasn't played much better in this stretch, losing its first six games following the All-Star Break prior to consecutive 2-0 victories over the Giants and Mets.

Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 3.15 ERA) was jobbed out of a victory his last time out against San Francisco due to bullpen issues and an incorrect interpretation of an obscure baseball rule. The Dodgers' lefty left Wednesday's start with a 5-4 lead, allowing four runs (two earned) and four hits in six innings of work. Jonathan Broxton came in to close the door in the ninth, but following multiple meetings on the mound by acting manager Don Mattingly, Broxton was forced out of the game in favor of George Sherrill. The Dodgers' lefty allowed a two-run double to Andres Torres to give the Giants the lead and the win.

Kershaw is winless since the break, but continues to be L.A.'s ace with a 5-2 mark at home and 4-0 record during the day. The southpaw is 1-0 against New York in two career starts, including a three-hit, seven strikeout performance at Citi Field last July.

Things were looking up for knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (6-4, 2.73 ERA) on June 23, as the journeyman picked up his sixth consecutive victory for the Mets at the back-end of the rotation. Since that win, the former Tennessee Volunteer is 0-4 in five starts, including road losses at last-place clubs Arizona and Washington. Dickey has pitched well despite the defeats, compiling four straight quality starts, but is getting very little run support (four runs the last three outings).

The Mets have played well against the Dodgers by taking four of the first five meetings this season, prior to Saturday's extra-innings loss. The Dodgers are 6-1 the last seven games as a home favorite of at least $1.40.

Blue Jays at Tigers - 6:10 PM EST

The second game of a double-header at Comerica Park pits two talented pitchers who have gone through bumps in the road this season. Detroit is slowly trying to put the pieces back together following a seven-game skid with mid-week wins over Texas and Toronto. The Jays swept the Orioles in Baltimore, but promptly lost two of three at Kansas City and the Thursday opener to Detroit.

The Tigers send out Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.50 ERA), who tries to rebound from a tough outing against the Rangers, allowing nine hits and four earned runs in 7.1 innings of an 8-0 setback. Galarraga caught lightning in a bottle with his near-perfect game in early June against the Indians, as he has delivered just two quality starts in his last seven outings. The Tigers are 5-2 in this span, which includes home wins over the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Orioles.

Jesse Litsch (1-4, 5.79 ERA) finally picked up his first win of the season for Toronto in a 13-1 blowout of Kansas City. Litsch only went 5.2 innings, registering his first victory since September 28, 2008 at Baltimore. The Jays have alternated 'overs' and 'unders' in each of Litsch's seven starts, coming off the easy 'over' against the Royals. Litsch has failed to beat the Tigers in two career outings, while allowing three homers in a 5-1 home loss to Detroit last April.

The Tigers have taken care of their business as a home favorite, going 18-3 in that role starting with Galarraga's gem against Cleveland on June 2. The homer-reliant Jays have been limited to four runs or less in six of the previous eight games.

Cardinals at Cubs - 8:05 PM EST

Three days ago, St. Louis was the hottest team in the National League with an eight-game winning streak and sitting atop the NL Central. Since Thursday afternoon, the Cards are going backwards with three straight losses, including back-to-back scoreless efforts. The Redbirds try to halt their losing ways when they send out former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter to the mound.

Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA) rebounded from two subpar starts prior to the break by beating the Dodgers and Phillies in his last two outings. Both victories came by 7-1 counts, while Carpenter tossed eight innings and allowed one earned run in each win. St. Louis is 6-1 the previous seven starts made by Carpenter against Chicago, including a 7-1 victory at Wrigley Field in late May.

Ryan Dempster (8-7, 3.70 ERA) has received terrific run support in his last three outings, as the Cubs are averaging 11.3 runs/game during three victories. The right-hander hasn't been dominant in this stretch, compiling just one quality start, but the 'over' has now cashed in five straight outings by Dempster. The most profitable time to back Dempster is at night, as the Cubs are 7-3 in his 10 starts compared to a 2-8 mark under the sun.

The Cubs improved to 3-2 against the Cardinals with Saturday's 6-5 win, as all five meetings have come on the North Side of Chicago. The Cards are 2-3 this season when trying to avoid a sweep, while the Cubs are 2-1 after winning the first two games of a series.

Angels at Rangers - 8:05 PM EST

Texas grabbed a pair of one-run victories in the first two games of this weekend series to open up a seven-game advantage inside the AL West race over Los Angeles. The Halos try to salvage the Sunday night contest, as L.A. is 0-4 this season in the Lone Star State.

Tommy Hunter (7-0, 2.09 ERA) continues to cash when he takes the mound for the Rangers, coming off an 8-0 shutout of the Tigers. The most encouraging sign for Hunter is him able to win outside of Texas with road wins at Detroit and Boston. It's not just about the Rangers' explosive offense carrying Hunter, as the righty has put together six straight quality starts. Hunter has had little success against the Angels, losing both career starts last season.

The Halos called up Trevor Bell (1-1, 6.05 ERA) from Triple-A Salt Lake City to make the Sunday start. This is the right-hander's first start with the big club since last August against the A's. Bell has made 15 relief appearances this season, facing a Rangers' lineup that is batting .298 at home against righties.

The home team is 6-1 in the series this season, while six games have been decided by one run. The 'under' has been the play between these teams, going 4-2-1.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2010, 01:36 PM

At the Gate - Sunday

As expected, Rachel Alexandra had little trouble handling her rivals in Saturday’s Lady’s Secret at Monmouth Park,

The 2009 Horse of the Year tracked the early pace, moved up to challenge for the lead entering the turn, got her head in front turning for home, and edged clear to win by three lengths under a confident ride from Calvin Borel.

She returned $2.20, with the exacta with Queen Martha paying $8.20.

She was not the only filly putting in a very impressive effort on Saturday.

Devil May Care drew clear to win by four widening lengths in the Betfair TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga.

She was under a snug hold under jockey John Velazquez after getting bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace, and had no competition in the final furlong, winning with ease in a good looking effort.

Can she give Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta a run for her money later this fall?

Visually it certainly looked as if she can, but her Beyer Speed Figure for her win came back at just a 96, while Rachel Alexandra earned a 110 for her victory.

As of early Sunday morning, the Spa main track was still muddy, and the turf course yielding, with races 5, 7, and 10 off the turf.

To purchase my full card report for Saratoga that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

To purchase my full card report for Monmouth Park that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.

Here is the opening race from Saratoga to get our day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Alw $43,000N1X (1:00 ET)
#7 Rumors of Glory 6/1
#8 Starjetta 6/1
#6 Frivolous Buck 3/1
#1 Sounds Familiar / #1a Nurse Dolce 7/2

Analysis: #7 Rumors of Glory broke her maiden last out going six furlongs on the turf in her first start off an 11-month layoff. The well bred filly should move forward with the added ground. She is by Storm Cat out of the stakes winner Indy Glory ($283K) who did her best work going long on dirt. Kimmel is coming off a strong Belmont Park meeting.

#8 Starjetta is returning off a three month break and returns to the turf for the first time since her turf debut, where she broke her maiden. She was in the mix in all four tries on the main track at this condition and may appreciate the return to grass. The barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4/1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,6,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 1,6,7,8 / 1,5,6,7,8

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Sanford G2 (5:30 ET)
#6 Chipshot 7/2
#1 Lou Brissie / #1a Blur Right By 3/1
#4 Bail Out the Cat 2/1
#2 Maybesomaybenot 6/1

Analysis: #6 Chipshot went gate to wire to break his maiden in a good looking effort at Monmouth Park in his third career start. He was a game second two back despite catching some traffic troubles. The Asmussen colt is headed in the right direction, may be able to move forward off his last start, and may not need the lead to run his best. He is out of the stakes winner Chispiski ($386K).

#1 Lou Brissie won the Kentucky Juvie (G3) back in April, making him the lone stakes winner in the field. Last out he was no match for a 9 1/2 length winner in a runner up finish in the Bashford Manor (G3). His numbers are on the light side but has more foundation than most of these and is in good hands with the Howard barn.

#4 Bail of the Cat earned the top last out speed fig in his maiden win in his debut. He did take advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed types that day.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Monmouth Park:

MTH Race 10 The Tyro (5:23 ET)
#4 Sweet Ducky 9/5
#2 Brother in Arms 5/2
#5 Vengeful Wildcat 7/2
#6 Mr. Proud Allen 9/2

Analysis: #4 Sweet Ducky was sent off at even money for his debut and did not disappoint. He was bumped coming out of the gate, sent up to vie for the early lead, and drew off late to win by five lengths. He has worked quickly since his debut and looks tough here for the Breen barn that is always tough with two year olds. The colt is out of the stakes winner Storm's Darling ($411K).

#2 Brother in Arms is also sent out b y Breen. The colt made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in his debut at Belmont Park. He should be picking them up late as there should be a brisk early pace in front of him here. Bravo takes the call and he should be moving late.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 8/5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,5,6 / 2,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R5: #3 Magnificent Tiger 8/1
R5: #9 Champleve 8/1
R6: #8 Mr. Benjamin 10/1
R6: #6 Pawleys Porch 12/1
R7: #7 Moose Man 10/1
R8: #3 Conservative 15/1
R8: #5 Peace Wine 10/1
R10: #3 Pea Stone 20/1

Good luck today!

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