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**jt4545** · 07-24-2010, 11:10 AM

Good luck * dust

**vols fan** · 07-24-2010, 11:12 AM

Good luck Bum

**StarDust Bum** · 07-24-2010, 01:50 PM

I need some luck guys........its been a downward spiral.......

**StarDust Bum** · 07-24-2010, 01:51 PM

Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/23-7/25

As the trade deadline nears in Major League Baseball, teams have just about a week left to decide whether they want to be buyers, sellers, or stand pat. In truth, most teams probably already know the answer to this dilemma, but still, you never know what a hot or cold streak might do over the next seven days. With that said, this weekend’s action might have a hand in the decision, although there are only two series’ in each league that match winning teams against one another. Let’s look at those matchups as well as the other key action and unveil our list of Top ******* Power Trends to consider in your wagering.

In the National League this weekend, two fading clubs will try to revive their pennant chase hopes when they go head-to-head in Los Angeles. The Mets have lost 10 of their last 12 games, including a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Dodgers on Thursday. They have fallen to 7.5-games back of the Braves in the process. L.A. hasn’t been a whole lot better of late, although they have won back-to-back games, both shutouts, since dropping six straight. The Mets are now 3-1 vs. Los Angeles this season, but have lost six of seven in L.A. dating back to 2008. Elsewhere, in Philadelphia, the Phillies are playing host to the Rockies. Like the Mets, Colorado has lost six of its L7 games in its current locale. They have lost six of eight games overall to fall to 4.5 games back of San Diego out West. Philadelphia seems to be just going through the motions right now, and is struggling offensively, having scored just 29 runs in its L10 games.

No one in the Senior Circuit goes into the weekend with longer than a 2-game winning streak, although San Francisco (at Arizona), St. Louis (at Chicago), and Florida (home vs. Atlanta) are the hottest teams over the last couple of weeks.

In the American League, the big series is in Texas, where the Rangers already started building the cushion over the Angels in the West Division with a 3-2 win on Thursday night behind Cliff Lee. Anaheim is in desperation mode for the rest of the series, since it has fallen to six games back, and any deeper of a hole will be very difficult to make up against a Texas team that can finally boast of having one of the league’s best pitching staffs. The Rangers are 3-0 vs. the Angels in Arlington this season and boast a 15-7 record in divisional play.

The other series pitting winning teams against one another is in Oakland, where the A’s play host to the Central leading White Sox. The A’s are surging right now, having won seven of eight games. Of course, that pales in comparison to the recent play of the pale hose, who are 28-9 since June 9th. It will be the first time these teams have played in 2010.

If you’re looking to ride the league’s best teams this weekend, the Rays will be in Cleveland looking to extend a run of 19-6 on the road this season against teams with a losing record, while the Yankees will be continuing a 4-game set at home versus the Royals.

Now, here’s our look at some of this weekend’s Top ******* Power Trends, one for each of the 15 series’.

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS

CHICAGO CUBS are 18-36 (-17.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

COLORADO at PHILADELPHIA

COLORADO is 35-79 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was COLORADO 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 7-25 (-17.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)

ATLANTA at FLORIDA

FLORIDA is 20-11 (+14.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON

CINCINNATI is 13-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CINCINNATI 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)

WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE

MILWAUKEE is 17-24 (-11.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.7, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-6 (+12.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)

NY METS at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 36-12 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 4.6, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*)

TORONTO at DETROIT

TORONTO is 61-40 (+21.4 Units) against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 13-31 (-16.1 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 3.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at CLEVELAND

TAMPA BAY is 19-6 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 6.3, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)

KANSAS CITY at NY YANKEES

KANSAS CITY is 17-7 OVER (+9.7 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.0, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at TEXAS

LA ANGELS are 38-21 (+18.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)

CHI WHITE SOX at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 21-11 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)

BOSTON at SEATTLE

BOSTON is 30-6 (+20.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 7.1, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

**StarDust Bum** · 07-24-2010, 01:52 PM

CFL Week 4 Betting Action

Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.

The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.

Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.

There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:

WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.

Get more details on this game from ******* as it is our FREE CFL FoxSheet of the Week!

Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.

Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.

Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.

Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this ******* Power Trend:

CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)

However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.

The ******* Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-24-2010, 01:55 PM

Full Saturday Arena Betting Board

Next week’s action will wrap up the 2010 Arena Football League regular season. The playoffs will follow. Heading into Saturday full board of seven games, only one postseason spot and two division titles remain up for grabs. Even still, the action for bettors should be compelling, as there is a ton of great ******* Trend and System info to take advantage of, and a few of the lines at Bookmaker.com look beatable. Let’s analyze the Saturday card.

(303) ALABAMA at (304) TAMPA BAY 7:30 PM
Line: Tampa Bay by 13
After last week’s loss at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay needs to win and get some help to win the Southern Division. The Sharks own the tiebreakers thanks to the season sweep. The Storm is being given plenty of credit by oddsmakers here, laying nearly two touchdowns to an Alabama team that is in desperation mode, needing a win to avoid being eliminated from the playoff picture. The Vipers are struggling, losers of their last three outright, and last five games against the spread. Overall they are just 4-10 ATS. On the road they have been awful, going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS, outscored by nearly 8 PPG. Tampa meanwhile, is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS with a point differential of 10 PPG. Despite playing the easiest schedule in the AFL, the Storm still enjoys a -8.5 Outplay Factor Edge before home field advantage is applied.

Obviously that 8.5 points still comes far shy of the actual line, as does the average score margin in this trend on Alabama:

ALABAMA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 52 or more points/game this season. The average score was ALABAMA 49.6, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 0*)

Unless Alabama has completely thrown in the towel, it might be difficult for the Storm to cover the big number.

(305) OKLAHOMA CITY at (306) ORLANDO 7:30 PM
Line: Orlando by 3
The Oklahoma City-Orlando game on Saturday is the most playoff impactful contest, as between those two and Alabama, the final playoff team from the American Conference will be pulled. Both the Yard Dawgz and the Predators share the same playoff scenarios, a loss eliminates them, a win and Alabama loss clinches the spot. With Alabama playing as a 13.5-point dog in Tampa, clearly the stakes for this game are raised. It’s essentially become a win and you’re in showdown.

Orlando has been made the customary 3-point home favorite, as oddsmakers seem to be gauging these teams as equals prior to applying the home field edge. That could be a mistake, as Oklahoma City has proven to be a far lesser team on the road in 2010, going 1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS. Orlando also owns an Outplay Factor Rating edge of 0.5 to -0.3, having taken on a 1.7 PPG tougher schedule.

Both teams face tough opponents next week so they’ll need to get it done here and look for Tampa Bay’s help.

(307) JACKSONVILLE at (308) BOSSIER-SHREVEPORT 8:05 PM
Line: Jacksonville by 14.5
Bossier-Shreveport has lost its last five games both SU & ATS but can salvage some semblance of the season by upsetting Jacksonville, a team that still has plenty to play for over the next two weeks. The Sharks (10-4) moved up three spots to #2 in this week’s AFL Coaches Poll after defeating previously top seeded Tampa Bay Storm 49-47 to take the lead in the Southern Division. They can clinch the #1 seed in the American Conference playoffs with a win here and Tampa Bay loss, or a win both this week and next. For the record, next weeks game is at home against the #1 team in the poll, Spokane. However, the Shock will have nothing but pride on the line in that game as they have already clinched the National Conference’s top seed.

Jacksonville quarterback Aaron Garcia was knocked out of the game with a head injury in the Sharks second series and backup quarterback Bernard Morris entered the game to led the Sharks to the victory against Tampa. There was no word yet as to Garcia’s status for Saturday, but either way, Sharks’ fans should feel comfortable knowing Morris might be at the controls. Morris was voted AFL’s Playmaker of the Week after his performance.

Bettors might be leery of laying the 14.5-point lumber here with the Sharks however. Besides the Garcia injury, and allowing a touchdown more of scoring per game on the road, Jacksonville came out flat in its last outing as a large road favorite, nipping the lowly Utah Blaze by just 11-points two weeks ago while being outgained 316-315. Bossier also owns a 4-2 ATS mark at home with near upsets of Tampa Bay and Tulsa to its credit.

(309) MILWAUKEE at (310) IOWA 8:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee by 6.5
Milwaukee still has its sights set on the Midwest Division title but will need to win possibly both of its remaining games to do so. That doesn’t seem like such a tall task when you consider that both of its next two opponents will be watching the playoffs from home. However, the challenge for the Iron will be to figure out how to improve their play on the road. Something has just seemed to go haywire for this team after leaving Milwaukee. In fact, since the season opening win at Spokane (looking better each passing week), the Iron have gone to win just one of five road games, that coming two weeks ago at Utah.

The Barnstormers have nothing more to play for at this point other than building momentum for next season. They’ll square off with Milwaukee and Arizona over the next two weeks, hoping to prove to themselves that they can compete consistently with playoff foes.

The last time these teams met, in Milwaukee in April, the Iron rolled to a 65-48 win behind 407 yards of offense, part of their league leading 348.8 yards per game average. That fact leads to what is one of the better ******* Systems on this week’s board. It says to…

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MILWAUKEE) - with an excellent offense - averaging 320 or more total yards/game. (46-21 since 1996.) (68.7%, +22.9 units. Rating = 2*)

(311) ARIZONA at (312) TULSA 8:00 PM
Line: Tulsa by 4
Tulsa clinched a playoff berth and the Southwest Division title last week, becoming the second team to do so, along with Spokane. Interestingly, both Tulsa and Spokane also won their respective divisions last year when they were members of the af2. Arizona has clinched a playoff spot in the American Conference but will be a wildcard team in the #3 or #4 spot, thus being on the road for the first week of the postseason.

Oddsmakers have installed Tulsa as a 4-point home favorite by virtue of the incredible success at home this season. The Talons are 6-1 SU & ATS while scoring a whopping 64.9 PPG. In their last three games, they have turned it on, beating Cleveland, Bossier, and Alabama by an average of 66.7-45.7. The one thing to be concerned with before you throw it all in on Tulsa this week however, is that they have benefitted greatly from turnovers over the six weeks, forcing 20 of them during that span. That kind of luck tends to turn quickly.

Arizona has been one of the league’s most reliable road teams, boasting a 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS record. The Rattlers are also one of the hottest teams in the AFL heading into the final weeks, having gone 7-2 SU & ATS in their L9 games.

All of the strength ratings I show for this game indicate these teams are nearly dead even. This game comes down to whether or not the bettor views Arizona’s road success or Tulsa’s home dominance more prominently.

(313) UTAH at (314) DALLAS 8:30 PM
Line: Dallas by 12
This game could easily be dubbed the Arena Football League’s toilet bowl, and rather than spend a whole lot of time researching it, I’ll just let you know that Dallas has not been favored since losing to Bossier-Shreveport at home in June, 70-69 as 8-point chalk. In fact, over the last two weeks, the Vigilantes have been underdogs of 13- and 16-points.

Utah has been horrendous in almost every aspect of the game and comes in having lost its L10 games. However, the Blaze haven’t won a turnover battle since April 23rd and are -22 in differential during that 11-game span.

Both teams are bad, Dallas is 2-12, Utah is 1-13. Is one capable of laying lumber to the other and getting it done???

**StarDust Bum** · 07-24-2010, 02:02 PM

Saturday's FOX Notes

Saturday’s pro baseball action is back with its FOX slate and this week’s card features three non-divisional battles. Let’s dive right into the action.
Colorado at Philadelphia

After losing six of eight to start the second-half of the season, the Phillies got a much-needed performance from their ace Roy Halladay on Friday. The hurler gave up five hits over eight innings as Philadelphia blanked Colorado, 6-0. The Rockies have now lost six of their first nine games after the All-Star break, all coming on the road. This afternoon, they’ll turn to their ace to snap the skid.

Even though some pundits believe Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez (15-1, 2.38 ERA) has come back to earth, the oddsmakers still have the right-hander listed as a solid road favorite (-150) over the Phillies this afternoon. Is the price right? In his last three appearances, the Rockies have gone 1-2 and watched the Cy Young candidate get ripped for 11 hits and 11 earned runs in the two losses, coming against the Giants (8-11) and Marlins (8-9). Despite the two bad outings, gamblers still have to respect a pitcher that’s gone 8-1 with a 1.36 ERA in day games this season. Jimenez hasn’t faced the Phillies this year, but most would expect him to avenge his two performances (12 innings, 7 earned runs), both losses, against the club in last year’s National League Division Series.

Jimenez could get a chance to make a few mistakes against Philadelphia, considering the Phillies are countering with Kyle Kendrick (5-4, 4.82 ERA). He was optioned for Triple-A after getting ripped for seven hits and seven earned runs in a loss to the Cardinals (4-8) on Monday, but was recalled after Jamie Moyer went on the DL. Another bad outing would more than likely send Kendrick back to the minors, so a gutsy performance wouldn’t be surprising here. However, it’s tough to back a pitcher that’s gone 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA at home this season. The ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in his eight appearances at Citizens Bank Park.

The total on today’s game is listed at 8 ½ runs and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three meetings between the pair this season. During the Rockies’ slow start in the second-half, their offense has been held to two runs or less in six of the nine games.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland

The White Sox started the second-half of the season by losing three of four games at Minnesota but they did bounce back and captured two of three from Safeco Field against Seattle. Chicago still sits atop the AL Central but the Tigers and Twins are right on its tail.

Oakland doesn’t boast the most talent in the majors, yet it continues to be competitive and cash tickets for gamblers. The Athletics have gone 5-2 since the All-Star break, which includes two home victories over the Red Sox this week. The offense has suddenly erupted during this span, scoring 31 runs in the five wins, but just one in the lone setback. The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in the last seven.

Unfortunately for the A’s, the attack was stifled by Mark Buehrle, who helped the White Sox earn a 5-1 victory in the first game of this series. The six combined runs never threatened the closing number and total players should make a note that Chicago has watched five of its last six go ‘under.’

Freddy Garcia (9-3, 4.37 ERA) will try to cool off Oakland again this afternoon and his career numbers (6-6, 4.98 ERA) against the club aren’t exactly impressive. Despite those stats against the A’s, Garcia has been a solid performer for Chicago this season. The club lost three of his first four starts, but they’ve gone 11-2 in his last 13 outings and it should be 12-1 if it wasn’t for the bullpen blowing a loss to Minnesota (6-7) on Sunday. The Chisox have gone 4-0 in Garcia’s four appearances against AL West opponents this season.

Despite those solid records for Garcia and the Sox, the oddsmakers have installed Vin Mazzaro (5-2, 3.50 ERA) and the A’s as short home favorites (-125) this afternoon. Mazzaro has put together five quality starts, which has watched the team go 3-2, and both of the losses came at the Oakland Coliseum.

The White Sox (20-10) and Athletics (22-10) have both performed well in afternoon games this season, making this matchup even tougher to gauge.

N.Y. Mets at L.A. Dodgers

The Mets and Dodgers will square off at Chavez Ravine this afternoon and if today’s battle is like the previous encounters, then perhaps we should expect an L.A. victory. The home team has won four of the first five meetings between the pair and all of the victories have come by two runs or more, helping the run-line cash. Last night, Johan Santana tossed seven strong innings and the Mets’ offense put up a key four-run spot in the eighth to capture a 6-1 road victory. The win snapped a four-game losing skid for New York and it also ended a streak of 17 scoreless innings.

It’s fair to say that the Mets didn’t expect a lot out of Mike Pelfrey (10-5, 4.01 ERA) when the season began but the team surprisingly won 14 of his first 17 starts. Since that impressive run, it seems like the lanky right-hander has hit the wall. In his last three starts, all losses, Pelfrey has been tagged for 28 hits and 17 earned runs in just 10 innings. On Monday, the Diamondbacks didn’t let him get out of the second, as they racked him for seven hits and six earned runs. He hasn’t faced the Dodgers this season, but he owns a 0-1 record and 5.40 ERA in two career starts.

Los Angeles will counter with Carlos Monasterios (3-2, 3.61 ERA), who’s been in and out of the bullpen this season. He was roughed up during interleague play against the Angels (5-6) and Red Sox (6-10), but the club did go 3-0 in his three starts against NL opponents.

Even though the Mets have struggled in the second-half (2-7), Los Angeles hasn’t been much better (2-7).

**Kaptain** · 07-24-2010, 05:27 PM

as always....thanks for the time and efforts STarDustBum..........much appreciated...

you're a good, steady, informative member that keeps a low profile......strictly sports, no BS, no arguing, etc....

we need more like you....

keep em coming

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