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**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 11:32 PM

Wednesday Tips

The Wednesday card is separated by six daytime games and nine contests under the lights. The division and playoff races heat up with a handful of night games that involve teams in postseason contention. The Braves and Padres continue their series at Turner Field, while the Rangers try to stay hot in Detroit. We'll start with the games' most talked about phenom as a road favorite in Cincinnati.

Nationals at Reds - 7:10 PM EST

The Nats have definitely made strides this season, but Jim Riggleman's squad sits in last place of the NL East. The one thing to look forward to when watching Washington is rookie standout Stephen Strasburg, who takes the all against a tough Cincinnati lineup.

Strasburg (4-2, 2.03 ERA) continues to baffle hitters as he is coming off a scoreless six-inning performance against the Marlins in a 4-0 victory. The former San Diego State star has tossed at least six innings in six of his eight starts, while turning in six quality performances. Strasburg has cashed in each of his first two outings as a road favorite, winning at Cleveland and Florida, but faces only his second over .500 team on the road after losing at Atlanta on June 28.

Bronson Arroyo (10-4, 3.96 ERA) has been on fire in the month of July by winning all three of his starts. The Reds' righty has allowed three earned runs in this stretch, a span of 21 innings, while beating the Rockies, Mets, and Cubs. For some reason, Arroyo has pitched better on the road than at home, as Cincinnati is just 5-4 in his home starts (compared to an 8-2 mark on the highway). Arroyo's career numbers against Washington are spectacular, going 6-1 including four scoreless outings.

The Reds have won three of four meetings this season, while avenging a home series loss to the Nationals last season in which Washington took three of four at the Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati will try to find some consistency on offense, as the Reds have scored at least seven runs three times in the last 10 games, but have been shut out four times in this span.

Padres at Braves - 7:10 PM EST

These two division leaders meet for the second of a three-game series in Atlanta as both clubs are trying to open up the gap behind the teams that are chasing them. A pair of up-and-down pitchers takes the mound as Jon Garland and Tommy Hanson toe the rubber at Turner Field.

Garland (9-6, 3.45 ERA) has struggled following a 6-2 start, winning three times in his last nine outings. The Padres' veteran finally put together a solid start his last time out, limiting Arizona to three hits and one earned run in six innings of a 12-1 blowout. The road hasn't been as kind to Garland recently, as San Diego is 1-3 in his previous four away starts, while three of those appearances have finished 'under' the total.

Hanson (8-6, 4.19 ERA) has been a frustrating pitcher to back this season, as you don't know which guy you're going to get. The Braves went through a stretch from late May until mid-June winning six straight starts made by Hanson, but Atlanta is just 2-3 in his last five outings. Hanson fell as a $1.75 home favorite his last time out against the Brewers, lasting five innings and allowing four runs in a 9-3 setback. Facing the Padres has been a positive for Hanson, who is 2-0 in his short career against San Diego, including a 6-1 victory at Petco Park in April.

Each of these teams has fared well in the second game of a series this season with the Braves going 21-9 and the Padres owning a 20-10 record. San Diego is riding a nice 'over' streak by hitting it in eight of the last nine games.

Rangers at Tigers - 7:10 PM EST

Texas and Detroit are going in opposite directions as the Rangers have won four of five games to hold a five-game advantage over the Angels in the AL West. The Tigers are headed backwards quickly after losing the first five games following the All-Star Break.

The Rangers' pitching staff is coming together with the acquisition of Cliff Lee from Seattle. Past the former Cy Young Award winner, the Rangers have mixed in young arms to go along with veterans like Colby Lewis (9-5, 3.42 ERA). The 30-year old is coming off consecutive wins over the Indians and Red Sox, while striking out 15 in those victories. Texas is 3-2 in Lewis' five starts as a road underdog, as the veteran struck out 10 in 6.1 innings of an 8-4 victory over Detroit in late April.

Max Scherzer (6-7, 4.74 ERA) has been pretty solid at Comerica Park, with the Tigers winning each of his last five starts at home. The ex-Diamondbacks righty gave up just six earned runs while striking out 44 in this span. Scherzer put up a quality outing the last time he faced the Rangers in Arlington, tossing seven innings and striking out seven in a 5-4 defeat.

Texas ended an 11-game skid at Comerica Park with Monday's extra-innings victory, as four of the five meetings this season have finished 'over' the total. The Tigers own a 17-3 mark the last 20 games as a home favorite, but have dropped two straight as 'chalk' at Comerica.

Phillies at Cardinals - 8:15 PM EST

The Redbirds are making their push at the right time, winning six straight games as St. Louis and Philadelphia continue a four-game series. Following a four-game sweep of the Reds prior to the break, the Phillies have lost four of five to begin the second half to fall six games behind the Braves in the NL East.

Bettors never know what they're going to get with Cardinals' rookie Jaime Garcia (8-4, 2.27 ERA), as St. Louis has alternated wins and losses in each of his previous 10 starts. Garcia received a no-decision his last time out as the Cards beat the Dodgers, 8-4. The southpaw lasted just 3.1 innings, but left with a 5-2 lead, as the 'over' hit for the fourth time in his last five starts. That's a steady change from the 'under,' which cashed in 11 of Garcia's first 12 outings of the season. Garcia won at Philadelphia in May, scattering three hits and one earned run in six innings of a 6-3 victory as a short road favorite.

The Phillies send out Joe Blanton (3-5, 6.21 ERA), who tries to improve on a 7.03 road ERA. Blanton turned in his best performance on the highway his last time out, allowing five hits and three earned runs in seven innings of a 4-3 defeat to the Cubs. That loss ended an eight-game 'over' streak for Blanton, as his previous eight outings saw at least ten runs combined each time. Blanton was on the losing end of that 6-3 setback to Garcia and the Cards on May 3, the first loss for the righty in four career starts against St. Louis.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2010, 05:55 PM

Competitive Wednesday Baseball Board

Wednesday’s full slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball stacks up as a competitive one, with only three games showing lines of minus-160 or higher according to Bookmaker.com, and only three games with Starting Pitcher WHIP differences of .200 or more. That said, it might take a bit more work to successfully handicap today’s action, looking specifically for more subtle edges. Let’s break down the entire schedule and see if we can’t uncover some value.

(901) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (902) CHICAGO CUBS (LILLY) 2:20 PM
Line: Chicago -155, Total: 8
Starting pitcher WHIP edge: Chicago
Bullpen WHIP edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago
Overall Analysis: The Cubs bats have come alive lately, but as ******* readers know from yesterday’s feature piece, they have struggled horribly against bad teams this season. Both pitchers have fared well in their careers versus today’s opponent, but Myers is the hotter pitcher of late. Tough laying this price today.

(903) MILWAUKEE (WOLF) at (904) PITTSBURGH (DUKE) 7:05 PM
Line: Milwaukee -125, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Milwaukee
BP WHIP Edge: Pittsburgh
Offense Edge: Milwaukee (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Milwaukee
Overall Analysis: Milwaukee’s overall dominance of the Pirates in recent years (32-10 L3 years) has to be given consideration here, and the Brewers are producing a lot of runs via the long ball of late. The Pirates’ Duke has been rocked by Milwaukee in recent starts while Wolf has enjoyed a ton of success against Pittsburgh.

(905) SAN DIEGO (GARLAND) at (906) ATLANTA (HANSON) 7:10 PM
Line: Atlanta -155, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: San Diego
BP WHIP Edge: San Diego
Offense Edge: Atlanta
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One of the best games on today’s board, Atlanta and Hanson are being shown quite a bit of respect by oddsmakers. The Braves are 3-1 this season against San Diego. GARLAND is 0-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 14.03 and a WHIP of 2.998 in his career. While the line and home field seem to give the overall edge to Atlanta, you can discount the Padres, particularly as the dogs.

(907) COLORADO (HAMMEL) at (908) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
Line: Florida -115, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Florida
BP WHIP Edge: Colorado (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Colorado
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Rockies pounded the Marlins 10-0 on Tuesday to even up the current 4-game set at two games apiece. They are just 1-7 this season coming off a win by 6 runs or more. Though the Marlins are 4-3 in their L7 games, they have only batted .194 while producing 2.6 RPG during that span. Nolasco holds a significant edge historically versus opponent, with a 4-0 career won-lost mark and a WHIP of 0.967 against Colorado.

(909) WASHINGTON (STRASBURG) at (910) CINCINNATI (ARROYO) 7:10 PM
Line: Washington -115, Total: 7
SP WHIP Edge: Washington
BP WHIP Edge: Washington
Offense Edge: Cincinnati (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cincinnati
Overall Analysis: To show how much oddsmakers are favoring Strasburg these days, the Nationals are 15-33 on the road this season but still favored over the Reds, who are 31-20 at home. WASHINGTON is 1-10 (-10.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Cincy seems to be finding a groove again since returning from their recent lengthy road trip. They are 4-1 on the current homestand. Worthy underdog look.

(911) PHILADELPHIA (BLANTON) at (912) ST LOUIS (GARCIA) 8:15 PM
Line: St. Louis -145, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: St. Louis
BP WHIP Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Offense Edge: St. Louis
Recent Play Edge: St. Louis (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: As you can see from the edges, there isn’t a whole lot going for the Phillies in this third of a four game series versus the red-hot Cardinals. St. Louis has won seven straight games and is now 33-15 at home in 2010. Garcia has been stellar for the Cards as well, while Blanton owns an ugly 7.06 ERA on the road. With trade rumors also dogging the franchise, bet Philly at your own peril.

(913) NY METS (NIESE) at (914) ARIZONA (HAREN) 9:40 PM
Line: Arizona -120, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Arizona
BP WHIP Edge: NY Mets (LARGE)
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: Arizona has taken the first two games of the 3-game series versus New York, who continues to struggle on the road. The Mets are just 19-29 this season away from Citi Field, allowing opponents to bat .290. Niese has been a good stopper for them though and has put together four solid starts in a row. After losing last night as -125 favorites, an interesting trend finds MANUEL is 23-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of NY METS. Don’t be surprised to see New York salvage this one.

(915) SAN FRANCISCO (ZITO) at (916) LA DODGERS (BILLINGSLEY) 10:10 PM
Line: LA Dodgers -140, Total: 7.5
SP WHIP Edge: San Francisco
BP WHIP Edge: Los Angeles
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: San Francisco (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: San Francisco is among the hottest teams in baseball right now, having won 11 of 13 games. The Dodgers have lost six straight. Despite this and the fact that Zito is enjoying the better season over Billingsley, who has been rocked in his last two starts, the Dodgers are still somewhat heavy favorites. Strangely, the money seems to be moving towards Los Angeles. Value here is clearly on the confident Giants.

(917) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (918) BALTIMORE (BERGESEN) 12:35 PM
Line: Tampa Bay -200, Total: 9.5
SP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Tampa Bay (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Tampa Bay
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: One trend is very interesting to me in this game, BALTIMORE is 6-1 (+11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. After last night’s huge come from behind, extra-inning win, it figures to be tough to lay the -220 against the O’s tonight, especially with a mediocre-of-late Shields getting the ball. Better plays on the board.

(919) LA ANGELS (PINEIRO) at (920) NY YANKEES (VAZQUEZ) 1:05 PM
Line: NY Yankees -175, Total: 9.0
SP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees
BP WHIP Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Offense Edge: NY Yankees (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: None
Overall Analysis: The Angels pounded Phil Hughes last night en route to a 10-2 upset as +220 dogs. Today’s revenge spot shows a strong FoxSheets system: Play Against - Home teams (NY YANKEES) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. (33-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +31 units. Rating = 4*). Early money seems to be landing with New York, but everything else I look at indicates a slight over-pricing here.

(921) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) at (922) MINNESOTA (LIRIANO) 1:10 PM
Line: Minnesota -220, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Minnesota
BP WHIP Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Offense Edge: Minnesota (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Cleveland
Overall Analysis: Minnesota hasn’t been this large of a favorite since May 8th. The difference here and then is that the Twins were playing far better baseball at that point in the season. They are just 9-16 in their L25 games now including back-to-back losses in this series in which they have yielded 30 hits to the Indians. Cleveland has won six games in a row and is playing as good as it has all year. Liriano and the hosts simply aren’t worthy of this price today.

(923) TORONTO (RZEPCZYNSKI) at (924) KANSAS CITY (GREINKE) 2:10 PM
Line: Kansas City -155, Total: 8.5
SP WHIP Edge: Kansas City (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Toronto
Offense Edge: None
Recent Play Edge: Toronto (LARGE)
Overall Analysis: Greinke opened as an exorbitant -170 favorite only to be bet down to -155 since. While he has pitched well of late, he certainly hasn’t commanded this type of price. Considering that the Jays have been getting it going of late with a 7-3 mark in their L10 games, including a 13-1 win last night, I’d be leery of laying the chalk here with the Royals. Good underdog spot.

(925) BOSTON (BUCHHOLZ) at (926) OAKLAND (GONZALEZ) 3:35 PM
Line: Boston -115, Total: 8
SP WHIP Edge: Boston
BP WHIP Edge: Boston
Offense Edge: None at this point
Recent Play Edge: Oakland
Overall Analysis: Boston and Oakland have split the first two games of their 3-game set, with each contest being decided by a run. Tonight’s pitching matchup is a good one, with Buchholz getting the slight edge if only for his recent prowess. At -120, the ******* Game Estimator and Power Ratings indicate that this game is underpriced for Boston by at least 25 cents, but savvy bettors have to give consideration to the bats missing from the Red Sox lineup.

(927) TEXAS (LEWIS) at (928) DETROIT (SCHERZER) 7:05 PM
Line: Detroit -105, Total: 9
SP WHIP Edge: Texas (LARGE)
BP WHIP Edge: Texas
Offense Edge: Texas
Recent Play Edge: Texas
Overall Analysis: What in the world is going on with the Tigers? Seven straight losses coming off a lengthy stretch in which they had gone 18-8. Pitching has been a huge problem in this current skid, as they have allowed opponents to score 6.1 RPG while hitting .294. Making matters worse today is that Detroit will be facing the Rangers’ Colby Lewis, who boasts an impressive 1.115 WHIP on the season and has had incredible command, striking out 112 hitters in just shy of 116 innings. Despite the fact that the two wins this week broke a 9-game losing streak in Detroit, you have to like the Rangers’ chances at a sweep.

(929) CHI WHITE SOX (FLOYD) at (930) SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) 10:10 PM
Line: Seattle -135, Total: 6.5
SP WHIP Edge: Seattle
BP WHIP Edge: Chicago
Offense Edge: Chicago (LARGE)
Recent Play Edge: Chicago (HUGE)
Overall Analysis: Seattle is on an extended stretch of awful play, with just a 3-14 mark in its L17 games. I can NEVER advocate backing a team like that in the role of favorite, even if its ace starting pitcher is on the hill. The White Sox have surged to the top of the Central Division and wins over the last two nights have them in the position to sweep here. I’d honestly be surprised if they don’t.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2010, 06:01 PM

Evening Plays :

Texas - 7:05 PM ET Texas -103 500
Detroit - Under 9 500

Milwaukee - 7:05 PM ET Pittsburgh +120 500 *****
Pittsburgh - Over 8.5 500 *****

San Diego - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -151 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500 *****

Washington - 7:10 PM ET Cincinnati +106 500 *****
Cincinnati - Under 7 500

Colorado - 7:10 PM ET Florida -116 500
Florida - Over 8.5 500 *****

Philadelphia - 8:15 PM ET St. Louis -154 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

NY Mets - 9:40 PM ET Arizona -120 500
Arizona - Over 8.5 500 *****

Chi. White Sox - 10:10 PM ET Seattle -133 500
Seattle - Over 6.5 500

San Francisco - 10:10 PM ET San Francisco +122 500 *****
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500 *****

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