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**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 06:45 PM

Cubs just can’t beat bad teams

The Chicago Cubs have been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments this season. While not unanimous preseason favorites in the N.L. Central, at least a few experts gave the Cubs a chance at competing for the division crown. Sitting at 10-games below .500 overall after Monday’s loss to Houston, Chicago is in dire straits. Strangely, one of the primary reasons for their struggles has been their inability to take care of business against lesser foes. Let’s get deeper into that subject and look closer at their chances for getting a win Tuesday night vs. the Astros, where they will be playing as -235 home favorites according to Sportsbook.com.

Diehard Cubs' fan Jim Belushi once starred in a movie titled "Taking Care of Business". His team certainly hasn't done that, and bettors need look no further than trends for evidence of team’s performance tendencies and the following list from FoxSheets underscore the Cubs’ ineptitude this season:

CHICAGO CUBS are 18-31 (-24.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.9, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Think about that for a second, if Chicago is 13-games below .500 against teams with losing records, it means they are 3-games over .500 against winning clubs. If the Cubs had simply only played 25-24 baseball against the league’s lesser teams, they would be only 3-1/2 games out of the Central lead right now and in contention.

CHICAGO CUBS are 8-18 (-19.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 4*)

The Cubs are 19.1 units in the hole for bettors who have backed them against the league’s worst hitting clubs this season. Strangely, pitching isn’t the problem. As you can see, they are producing only 3.5 runs per game offensively themselves against these weak hitting foes. Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop there…

CHICAGO CUBS are 17-29 (-23.6 Units) against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 4.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Typically, teams are able to mount come from behind rallies against poor bullpens. Such has not been the case for Chicago.

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-28 (-22.6 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 3*)

The Cubs are 13-games below .500 against teams that don’t hit a lot of home runs, returning a negative 52.5% on investment.

CHICAGO CUBS are 7-22 (-25.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 2.9, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 6*)

Perhaps the ugliest nugget of all, Chicago is not only allowing its run-starved opponents to outscore their normal averages, it’s own offense is producing just 2.9 runs per game on this trend. With an ROI of -86.9%, this trend gets a 6* rating from FoxSheets.

And finally…

CHICAGO CUBS are 6-15 (-19.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Chicago is 9-games under .500 when playing to its biggest chalk lines this season. Of course, this will be put to test tonight, as the Cubs are an “Astro-nomical” minus-235 favorite against the Astros behind Ryan Dempster. The Cubs are just 9-16 (-11.9 units) over the last two years in divisional play behind Dempster, and 15-26 overall versus Central Division rivals in 2010.

Meanwhile, the Astros boast a 21-16 divisional record this season, producing 11.9 units of profit. They will turn the ball over to Wesley Wright, who after 126 MLB relief appearance and a recent stint in Triple-A, makes his first career start.

Game time is set for 8:05 PM ET from Wrigley Field, and while the ******* Power Line suggests that Chicago still holds value up to -207, the savvy bettor can’t help but be scared off tonight’s mega-price.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 06:46 PM

Seattle versus everyone else in WNBA

Perhaps you may have noticed in checking the standings in the WNBA on any given recent morning, but if not, I’ll summarize for you…It’s Seattle versus everyone else, and the chances of anyone keeping the Storm from the 2010 title seem to diminish each passing day. With a record of 18-2 after 20 games, they are five games better than any other team, and already lead the Division by 10 games. For bettors, most importantly, Seattle is tied for the best ATS mark in the league at 12-6-2. As an elite team, there are several strong betting systems that you’ll want to watch for with Seattle the rest of the way.

With a point differential of +9.6 per game (league best) and obviously having won many recent games, there are going to be numerous top angles from FoxSheets that would favor backing Seattle or an UNDER the total over the next several weeks. Records noted are as of Tuesday, July 20th.

Play On - Any team - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a win by 10 points or more. (32-9 since 1997.) (78%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)

Play On - Road favorites - after 5 or more consecutive wins, in July games. (24-5 since 1997.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*)

Play On - Road teams - hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games, playing with 2 days rest. (32-10 since 1997.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 2*)

These are favoring UNDER the Total…

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (SEATTLE) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing with 2 days rest. (35-11 since 1997.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 (SEATTLE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game. (58-19 since 1997.) (75.3%, +37.1 units. Rating = 4*)

One other angle to take note of regarding the Storm is that they have thrived against poor defensive teams this season:

SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 73+ points/game this season. The average score was SEATTLE 85.7, OPPONENT 73.3 - (Rating = 3*)

With scoring up significantly in the WNBA this season, only two teams (Indiana & Washington) are allowing fewer than 73 PPG, so Seattle figures to be in this spot for most of the remaining games.

The best news of all for bettors of the WNBA is that oddsmakers don’t seem to be giving this Seattle team enough credit yet either. In fact, the Storm has only been a double-digit favorite one time all season despite winning half of their 18 games by 10-points or more. Obviously there is still time to take advantage of Seattle’s WNBA dominance.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 06:48 PM

Diamond Trends - Tuesday

Red Sox at Athletics – The Red Sox are 0-7 since May 13, 2009 when Tim Wakefield starts within 20 cents of pick ‘em for a net profit of $715 when playing against. The Athletics are 7-0 since May 24, 2009 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $700.

Padres at Braves – The Braves are 10-0 since September 15, 2009 as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start for a net profit of $1000.

Phillies at Cardinals – The Cardinals are 0-6 since May 19, 2010 after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $835 when playing against.

Astros at Cubs – The Cubs are 0-9 since April 24, 2009 when Ryan Dempster starts after throwing more than 100 pitches at home and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1110 when playing against.

Mets at Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are 0-7 since April 11, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a win in which they drew 5+ walks for a net profit of $710 when playing against.

Giants at Dodgers – The Giants are 0-7 since April 26, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a dog for a net profit of $740 when playing against. The Dodgers are 8-0 since May 23, 2009 after a loss in which they had more than ten team-left-on-base as a favorite for a net profit of $815. The Dodgers are 6-0 since April 18, 2010 when Clayton Kershaw starts after his team won the last time he started vs this opponent for a net profit of $610.

White Sox at Mariners – The White Sox are 0-8 since August 09, 2009 as a favorite when they won by one run in their starter's last start for a net profit of $1105 when playing against.

Rays at Orioles – The Rays are 0-5 since August 10, 2009 when Matt Garza starts as a road favorite when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $670 when playing against. The Orioles are 0-7 since August 02, 2009 as a home 140+ dog after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

Brewers at Pirates – The Brewers are 7-0 since September 06, 2009 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $700. The Pirates are 0-8 since June 29, 2009 at home within 20 cents of pick ‘em after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Nationals at Reds – The Nationals are 0-8 since August 29, 2009 as a road dog after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base for a net profit of $800 when playing against.

Blue Jays at Royals – The Blue Jays are 7-0 since August 14, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $730. The Royals are 0-8 since June 25, 2009 after an extra inning win for a net profit of $840 when playing against.

Rangers at Tigers – The Rangers are 10-0 since May 02, 2010 after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $1085. The Tigers are 0-9 since April 07, 2009 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

Indians at Twins – The Indians are 0-7 since August 28, 2009 on the road after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $700 when playing against. The Twins are 9-0 since April 25, 2009 when Kevin Slowey starts vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game for a net profit of $945. The Twins are 7-0 since September 13, 2009 at home when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost for a net profit of $700.

Angels at Yankees – The Yankees are 8-0 since May 15, 2009 when Philip Hughes starts at home for a net profit of $800. The Yankees are 7-0 since April 21, 2009 at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $715.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-20-2010, 06:49 PM

Tuesday Tips

The Tuesday baseball card heats up with plenty of teams in playoff contention getting together. A pair of first-place teams gets together in Atlanta, while two clubs going in opposite directions meet in St. Louis. We'll start in the Big Apple for a rematch of last season's ALCS between the Halos and Bombers.

Angels at Yankees - 7:05 PM EST

These two squads hook up for the first time in three months as New York is slowly widening the gap in the AL East. The Yanks took two of three from the Rays to open up a three-game lead over Tampa Bay, while maintaining a 6 ½-game advantage over the Red Sox. The Angels fell short of a sweep against the Mariners, but still managed to take three of four from Seattle.

Phil Hughes (11-2, 3.65 ERA) makes his first start since the All-Star Break, going for just his second win since June 20. The Yankees' right-hander shut down the Mariners his last time out, scattering six hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 6-1 victory. Hughes has been consistent regardless of location, but possesses a 6-1 mark at home to go along with seven 'overs' in nine starts at Yankee Stadium. In seven of the eight home victories started by Hughes, the Yankees have won by at least two runs, including a 6-2 win over the Angels on April 15.

The two teams have split six meetings this season, as each team took two of three games at home. All six games have been decided by at least two runs, while the Yanks have won six of the last seven meetings in the Bronx.

Rangers at Tigers - 7:05 PM EST

Texas bounced back in a strong way after getting swept by woeful Baltimore prior to the All-Star Break. The Rangers grabbed three of four at Fenway Park from the Red Sox, followed by an extra-innings victory on Monday at Detroit to extend the lead to five games over the Angels in the AL West. The Tigers, meanwhile, stubbed their toe in an ugly four-game sweep at Cleveland over the weekend, but Detroit still remains in the mix of the AL Central race with Chicago and Minnesota.

Armando Galarraga (3-2, 4.45 ERA) has gone through a whirlwind first three months of the season for the Tigers. The Detroit right-hander has spent time in the minors, while toiling with a much-publicized missed perfect game against the Indians in early June. Galarraga was recalled from Triple-A Toledo for this start trying to get his game back on track after allowing 17 earned runs in his last four outings. The Tigers are 2-1 in Galarraga's three career starts against the Rangers, which included a 15-2 pounding of Texas last April.

The Rangers counter with Tommy Hunter (6-0, 2.39 ERA), who has been as automatic as any pitcher in baseball this season. Texas has won seven of his eight starts in 2010, including a 7-2 thumping at Boston his last time out. Hunter has delivered five straight quality starts, while allowing nine earned runs in this span (4-1). The righty shut down Detroit last season in Arlington, giving up five hits and one earned run in seven innings of a 5-2 victory.

The Rangers had dropped 11 straight meetings at Comerica Park prior to Monday's 8-6 triumph. These two clubs split a four-game series in Arlington in late April as three of the contests finished 'over' the total.

Padres at Braves - 7:10 PM EST

San Diego travels east for the start of a six-game road trip in Atlanta against the leaders of the NL East. The Padres are pacing the NL West following a three-game sweep of the dreadful Diamondbacks, opening up a four-game advantage over the Rockies. The Braves are keeping their edge in the East after splitting a four-game set with the Brewers as both the Mets and Phillies went 1-3 over the weekend.

Jair Jurrjens (2-3, 4.75 ERA) has returned to the Braves' rotation with a vengeance, as Atlanta is 3-0 in his three starts since getting activated off the disabled list. Jurrjens turned in a gem his last time out against the Brewers, allowing six hits and an early solo homer from Corey Hart in a 2-1 victory. The righty will look for some revenge against a Padres club that racked him for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings of a 17-2 drubbing at Petco Park in April.

Wade LeBlanc (4-7, 3.30 ERA) looks for his first victory since April 12 against Seattle. The Padres' left-hander owns a respectable ERA, but was touched up for four earned runs and three homers in a 4-2 setback at Colorado prior to the break. LeBlanc's overall ERA has been helped by playing at Petco Park, as the southpaw owns a 5.12 ERA on the highway in six away starts. This game will be a homecoming of sorts for LeBlanc, who grew up in Louisiana and played his college ball at Alabama.

Despite San Diego coming out with a 17-2 thrashing of Atlanta in the opener of their last series in Southern California, the Braves rebounded with two victories while outscoring the Padres, 12-3 in the final two games. San Diego took two of three at Turner Field last season, winning as underdogs of $2.15 and $1.90.

Phillies at Cardinals - 8:10 PM EST

St. Louis busted out of the All-Star Break with an impressive four-game sweep of Los Angeles, topped off by a walk-off win on Sunday. The Cards pulled into first place inside the NL Central ahead of the Reds heading into Tuesday's action, while the Phillies are going backwards fast. Philadelphia dropped three of four games at Chicago, while blowing an early 3-0 lead in Monday's 8-4 setback to the Cards.

Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter (10-3, 3.16 ERA) rebounded from two subpar starts to shut down the Dodgers his last time out, becoming the second Cardinals' pitcher to win 10 games this season (Adam Wainwright). Carpenter's home numbers speak for themselves, winning seven of nine decisions at Busch Stadium. The ace hasn't seen the Phillies since 2006, but he does face a Philadelphia team batting just .211 over its last ten games.

The ageless Jamie Moyer (9-9, 4.88 ERA) tries to put his last start against the Cubs behind him, allowing six earned runs in three innings of a 12-6 road defeat. Following a nice three-week run in which Moyer gave up six runs in four starts, the southpaw has yielded 13 runs his last two outings against the Braves and Cubs. Moyer last faced the Cardinals in 2008, but his numbers have been solid against St. Louis. The 47-year old has given up two earned runs in his previous three outings versus the Redbirds dating back to 2007.

The Phillies are 9-3 the last 12 meetings in this series, including a 3-2 mark this season. Philadelphia had claimed the previous four road matchups prior to Monday's loss, as the Phils pulled off a two-game sweep at Busch Stadium last May.

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